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Bryce Harper

Nationals Latest Offer To Bryce Harper Reportedly “Much More” Than $300MM

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The twists and turns keep coming in the public on-again off-again courtship between the Washington Nationals and free agent outfielder Bryce Harper. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweeted last night that the Nationals latest offer to Harper was actually “much more” than the $300MM commonly quoted. Per Bowden, the 10-year, $300MM offer was merely the first offer the Nationals made to their erstwhile superstar. The offer as stated – seen by many as the low-end of what Harper might expect – has been the single biggest signifier that the Nats are ready to move on from Harper, but the ongoing entanglement between the two sides is evidently more complex.

There’s lots to read into this, of course, especially given recent rumblings about Harper. In the context of the White Sox being unwilling to move beyond a 7-year bid, sources from 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine said that Harper has multiple ten-year offers in hand. Presumably, this meant offers from multiple teams, but given the lack of specifics, we have been left to speculate about which teams might have already extended such a deal.

The Cubs are keeping tabs, but it doesn’t appear as if they’ve made an offer. The Phillies would be most people’s guess, but Harper himself didn’t attend Philly’s initial chat with Scott Boras during the winter meetings, which could presume it was more of a “testing of the waters” type precursor to the face-to-face meeting planned with Harper this week. There were mixed reports about the Dodgers meeting with Harper early in December, but besides the hailstorm of rumors set off by the Puig-Kemp trade, there hasn’t been much concrete linkage between the two sides since. The juiciest bit of news has been the recent report of a five-hour meeting just before Christmas between Harper, Boras, and Nationals owner Ted Lerner. Matter of fact, Levine’s mention of ten-year “offers” could just as easily refer to multiple ten-year offers from the Nationals. Combine that with Bowden’s tweet from last night and it’s hard not to put the Nats in pole position at this stage. Still, until something more concrete comes from Harper’s camp, the best we have is conjecture.

Latest On The White Sox Pursuit Of Bryce Harper, Manny Machado

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5:38 PM: Levine does take care to note that, per his sources, Harper “has had” ten-year offers with “big” proposed AAV salaries, though the tendering clubs remain as yet unknown.

3:07 PM: Earlier today, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reported that the White Sox (and the Phillies) were willing to give Bryce Harper a contract of at least ten guaranteed years in length.  However, contrasting information on Chicago’s stance has come from 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine (Twitter link), who reports that the White Sox are only willing to give Harper or Manny Machado a maximum of a seven-year contract.  According to “high ranking industry sources” in contact with Levine, Passan’s report about the White Sox being open to a ten-year deal is “without any substance and flat out wrong.”

This isn’t the first time we’ve heard that the Sox weren’t quite going all-out in their pursuit of either free agent.  Earlier in the offseason, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney described Chicago’s approach to Harper and Machado as “measured and modest,” noting that the club wasn’t willing to make the type of record-setting contractual commitment that both players are reportedly seeking.

Both Harper and Machado will be only 26 years old on Opening Day, and their entries into free agency at such a young age invite extended commitments considering their potential for future performance.  Either player could quite reasonably still be productive in their age-35 season, when a ten-year deal would conclude.  Looking at other recent long-term free agent deals, Jason Heyward (also just 26 at the time) scored an eight-year deal from the Cubs in December 2015, and Eric Hosmer (then 28 years old) got eight years from the Padres just last winter.  It’s almost impossible to see Harper or Machado taking less, considering that both have delivered considerably more superstar-level production than either Heyward or Hosmer at the time of their deals.

All things considered, a seven-year pact doesn’t seem like it would even get Harper or Machado’s attention, unless it came with a very high average annual value.  Even that strategy would seem uncharacteristic for the White Sox, who have never spent more than $68MM total (for Jose Abreu) on a player.  The Sox do have some new revenues coming in the form of a new broadcast contract, though it would still be a big leap to see the team suddenly be willing to spend in the neighborhood of $35MM+ in average annual value to land one of the offseason’s top two free agents.

East Notes: Harper, Cespedes, O’s, Perez, Yankees, Tulo

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Bryce Harper and agent Scott Boras had a five-hour meeting with Nationals owner Ted Lerner on December 22, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports.  Sources from within the team declined to confirm that such a meeting took place, which Janes describes as “a departure from their relative openness about their status with Harper this winter.”  One possibility is that Lerner held the meeting without informing anyone else in the organization, which Janes notes “has happened before,” though it could be that the front office is keeping quiet on details either as a gamesmanship tactic (to drive up Harper’s price for other teams), or because an ardent pursuit of the free agent outfielder is underway.

This is the latest twist in the perhaps-ongoing courtship between Harper and the Nats, as ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reported earlier today that Harper had had “multiple” meetings with team representatives.  Boras and Lerner have a longstanding professional relationship that has resulted in several high-profile Boras Corporation clients (i.e. Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer) sign extensions or free agent deals with Washington.  Boras has also often bypassed general managers to negotiate directly with ownership in some particularly major contracts, and he has signaled this intent in regards to Harper’s market this offseason.

Some more from around both the NL East and AL East…

  • There had already been some indication that the Mets weren’t expecting Yoenis Cespedes to play in 2019 as the outfielder recovers from a pair of heel surgeries, and special assistant Omar Minaya reiterated as much in an interview on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (hat tip to MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo).  “If [Cespedes] gives us anything this year, that is great, we’re happy for that,” Minaya said.  Cespedes’ first procedure in late July carried a rough timeline of eight-to-ten months before a return to baseball activities, and no update to that timetable was made after Cespedes underwent his second surgery in late October.  Cespedes has long been plagued by a variety of lower-body injuries, and since signing a four-year, $110MM deal with the Mets prior to the 2017 season, the outfielder has played in just 119 games.  As it stands, New York’s starting outfield consists of Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo in the corners, Juan Lagares in center field, and the newly-acquired Rajai Davis as the fourth outfielder.  The Mets have been linked to other outfielders on the rumor mill, however, so it is quite possible more changes could come before Opening Day.
  • The Orioles have hired Koby Perez as the team’s new Senior Director of international scouting, as per a team press release.  The 40-year-old Perez spent the last three seasons as the Indians’ director of Latin American scouting, his most recent stop in a career that has spanned 12 seasons and included roles as a crosschecker and scout with Cleveland, Philadelphia, and St. Louis (Perez and Orioles GM Mike Elias both worked as scouts in the Cardinals’ organization for two years).  Under his new title, as per the press release, “Perez will oversee all aspects of the Orioles’ international scouting operations and management of the club’s bonus pool.”  The Orioles have been notoriously indifferent to the international market for years, though this focus began to change even prior to Elias’ hiring, as Baltimore made a strong attempt to sign both the Mesa brothers and Sandy Gaston this fall.  Going forward, it certainly seems as if the O’s will now be as aggressive and thorough in locating and signing international prospects as any club in the sport.
  • The Yankees’ signing of Troy Tulowitzki doesn’t mean the team is out on Manny Machado by any means, Joel Sherman of the New York Post opines as part of a seven-tweet thread (all linked here).  That said, the Yankees wouldn’t publicize being out of the Machado sweepstakes anyway, as such a statement would violate Collective Bargaining Agreement rules about teams weighing in on free agents.  It also makes strategic sense for the Yankees to at least appear to still be in on Machado, if for no other reason than to force rival teams to spend more to sign him.  If Machado indeed doesn’t land in New York, Sherman feels the Yankees could address their infield needs by signing a player like Neil Walker or Adeiny Hechavarria to provide short-term help until Didi Gregorius is able to return.  Sherman suggests that infield help could also be found as part of a Sonny Gray trade package.

Passan’s Latest: Harper, Profar, Gray, Ray, Grandal, Pollock, Ender

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It’s too soon to count out a reunion between Bryce Harper and the Nationals, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan writes in his latest column, as “Harper has met multiple times with representatives” from the team.  In a rather surprisingly open interview last month, Nats managing principal owner Mark Lerner said his organization wasn’t willing to go beyond the ten-year, $300MM extension it offered Harper after the season, though rumors have continued to swirl that Washington is still at least monitoring Harper’s market.  It could still be some time before we have an answer about Harper’s 2019 destination, as the outfielder (like many Scott Boras clients) is in no rush to sign a contract that doesn’t meet his satisfaction.  The Phillies and White Sox, Passan reports, are willing to guarantee Harper at least a ten-year deal, indicating that the two teams have at least made some progress in their pursuit of the free agent outfielder, though obviously the gigantic dollar figure Harper is demanding is still a very notable obstacle.

Some more hot stove items from Passan….

  • Before the Rangers dealt Jurickson Profar to the Athletics as part of a three-team trade with the Rays, Texas also explored another three-team scenario involving the Yankees and Braves.  “There was traction, at one point,” Passan writes about a deal that would have seen the Yankees get Profar, the Braves get Sonny Gray, and Texas would have received a prospect (presumably from Atlanta’s farm system).
  • The Diamondbacks would only consider trading Robbie Ray for a very big return, with Passan noting that Arizona would want more for Ray than the Mariners received from the Yankees for James Paxton back in November.  While both Ray and Paxton are front-of-the-rotation southpaws with two remaining years of team control, Ray is almost three full years younger than Paxton, which would explain Arizona’s higher asking price.  That deal saw Seattle land an MLB-ready pitching prospect (Justus Sheffield), another young arm on the brink of the majors (Erik Swanson) and a promising lower-level position player (outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams).  It’s a steep price tag, though at least two teams with a lot of minor league depth have been linked to Ray in trade rumors.
  • News broke last week that Yasmani Grandal turned down a four-year, $60MM offer from the Mets, though Passan says that such an offer was “never officially presented,” and that the terms were “characterized by sources on both sides as more of a discussion.”  Grandal’s market seems a little uncertain right now, due to the number of catcher-needy teams who have already found other backstops, and the looming presence of J.T. Realmuto on the trade market.  With draft pick compensation via the qualifying offer hanging over Grandal’s services, there is some threat of Grandal becoming (in the words of one executive) “this year’s version of Mike Moustakas,” i.e. a QO free agent whose market thins to the point that he is forced to accept a one-year contract.  Grandal accepting a one-year deal “remains unlikely but not out of question,” as per Passan, though the catcher and his camp are reportedly “staying patient” that a satisfactory multi-year deal will eventually surface.
  • A.J. Pollock is one of many big-name free agents whose markets may not get moving until Harper and/or Manny Machado sign new contracts.  As Passan notes, Pollock is a good fit for both the Phillies and White Sox, though those teams are more likely to focus on Harper and Machado before turning to backup plans.  Three executive tell Passan that Pollock’s situation bears similarity to Lorenzo Cain last winter, who had to wait until late January to find a new contract, though his market quickly heated up to the point that he was able to land a hefty five-year, $80MM deal from the Brewers.
  • We heard during the Winter Meetings about the Reds’ interest in Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte, though Passan writes that “talks stagnated” between the two sides, and Cincinnati then pivoted to acquire outfield help in the form of Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp.  Neither of those two are viable center field options, of course, so the Reds remain on the hunt for a replacement for Billy Hamilton.

Market Notes: Realmuto, Padres, Phillies, Harper/Machado, Rays

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Rounding up the latest in market chatter . . .

  • Per Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi on Twitter, the Padres have “continued talks” with the Marlins on a potential J.T. Realmuto trade and “could move” catcher Austin Hedges for pitching help if the deal were to be consummated. Though the long-suffering Friars could certainly use a near-term upgrade behind the dish, the 27-year-old Realmuto seems an odd fit – he comes, after all, with just two years left of control, during which time the club would need to seriously embark on a frenetic hole-patching effort if it hoped to compete. Catcher Francisco Mejia, acquired in a midseason blockbuster from Cleveland, seems near-ready to contribute (though he does face his questions about his ability to handle the position defensively), and Hedges, though highly unlikely to net a significant mound upgrade via trade, did flash signs of emerging as a potential regular last season, slugging .466 in the season’s 2nd half and posting an overall (.231/.282/.429) park-adjusted line that bested the average MLB mark for backstops in 2018.
  • The “word,” according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, is that neither Bryce Harper nor Manny Machado “particularly likes” the idea of playing in Philadelphia, though whether the reluctance is city- or team-centric (or both) remains an open question. The Phillies, of course, are all set to spend “stupid money” this offseason, though thus far their acquisitions have been limited to just Andrew McCutchen and a trade for shortstop Jean Segura.  For their part, MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM hears the same, tweeting that “reports are” neither free agent is enamored with the City of Brotherly Love. If true, the reports may cut deep for the Fightins, who’d likely have to dig far into the blueprints to find an offseason plan not containing either star at its center.
  • The Rays, who’d placed Nelson Cruz near the top of their current wish list, remain in the market for a right-handed hitter after learning the 38-year-old picked Minnesota, tweets Sherman, who lists Realmuto and Nick Castellanos as possibilities but says the team is now “more likely” to get a “complementary” bat like that of former Met Wilmer Flores. Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets that the Rays “suggested” to Cruz that their offer could reach $12MM, which obviously fell a bit of short of the Twins’ total. Tampa, of course, seems as prime a target as any to deal for a major upgrade (or two) with multiple years of control remaining, though the club seems loath as ever to deal from its trove of low-level prospects and big-league-ready performers.  Given the club’s perennially meager payroll, it stands to reason that hoarding players of that ilk would be a top priority, but with the division at its toughest state in years, calculated aggression may be soon be necessary.

Market Notes: Cruz, Harper, Kluber, Bauer, Ottavino, Harrison

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Prior to this morning’s agreement with the Twins, slugger Nelson Cruz received “competitive” offers from both the Rays and Astros, according to Juan Toribio of The Athletic (Twitter link) and Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Specifics aren’t known, but it seems likely that the Twins would’ve had to outbid either by a fairly notable margin, given that the Rays won 90 games last season while the Astros won the 2017 World Series and appeared in a second consecutive American League Championship Series this past season. Minnesota ultimately secured Cruz with a $14.3MM bid that includes a $14MM salary for the 2019 season and a $12MM club option ($300K buyout) for the 2020 campaign. If Houston or Tampa Bay is still keen on adding a notable right-handed bat, there should be numerous options in play. The rebuilding Tigers, for instance, would likely be willing to move Nicholas Castellanos as he enters his final season of club control. The Cardinals, meanwhile, could move Jose Martinez to an American League club that’d be better suited to mask his defensive shortcomings at the DH spot.

Some more notes on the both the trade and free-agent markets…

  • The Cardinals have been an oft-speculated landing spot for Bryce Harper but have not been rumored to have any meaningful interest in the market’s top free agent. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explored the situation in his latest Q&A with readers, explaining the numerous reasons that the Cardinals feel a pursuit of Harper would differ from their prior pursuits of huge contracts for David Price, Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton. Above all else, it seems that the sizable discrepancy between Harper’s asking price and even those other substantial contracts is a roadblock for the St. Louis front office. The Cards also don’t have the personal connection with Harper that they had after a year of having Heyward in the clubhouse, and they’re generally averse to the leverage that opt-out clauses provide players on lengthy free-agent deals.
  • In an appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove this morning, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com downplayed the possibility of the Indians trading a top starter (video link). “I don’t think it’s particularly likely they move either Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer at this moment,” said Castrovince, citing sources with the Indians. While he cautioned that things can change with a single call or text, the roughly $21MM saved in trades of Yan Gomes, Edwin Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso has alleviated pressure to pare back payroll from its record levels in a 2018 season that saw the total attendance decline. That, of course, doesn’t mean rumors or conversations surrounding Kluber will cease — they assuredly will not — but it’s worth keeping in mind when parsing the inevitable continuation of Kluber rumblings. More than 18,000 readers voted in last night’s MLBTR poll asking whether Cleveland would actually trade Kluber, and the response was a near-even split (52-48 in favor of Kluber being moved).
  • The White Sox, Red Sox and Rockies are all maintaining some level of interest in free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. As one of the top relievers on the market, the 33-year-old Ottavino should have no shortage of clubs inquiring about his services, though the asking price on top-end bullpen arms could prove prohibitive for some clubs. To this point, Jeurys Familia (three years, $30MM), Joe Kelly (three years, $25MM) and Andrew Miller (two years, $25MM) are among the relievers MLBTR ranked in Ottavino’s tier of free agency to have cashed in quite nicely. Given his 2.43 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 2.82 SIERA and 13.0 K/9 mark, Ottavino figures to have a fairly high ask, as well. The interest from each of the three teams listed by Morosi has been previously reported, and there are some issues with some of the fits. Adding Ottavino, for instance, could push the Red Sox back into the top tier of the luxury tax bracket. And the Rockies spent more than $100MM on their ’pen last winter, which could make them reluctant to add a fourth reliever on the type of multi-year contract Ottavino should ultimately command.
  • Heyman tweets that infielder/outfielder Josh Harrison has current interest from the Nationals, Reds, Rangers, Giants and Brewers, and he could ultimately generate interest from teams like the Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers — depending on how their pursuits of the market’s top free agents pans out. (Presumably, the Phillies or Yankees would have interest in the event that either failed to land Manny Machado.) Harrison would give the Nats a potential regular option at second base, while the Rangers are in need of a third baseman following the trade of Jurickson Profar. Joe Panik’s stock is down in San Francisco, and the Brewers, too, are in need of an everyday option at either second or third (depending on where they play Travis Shaw in 2019). The fit for the Reds is a bit more muddied, as Harrison would appear to be more of a bench option there, though it’s worth noting that he is a Cincinnati native.

Quick Hits: Harper, Miller, Mets, Yankees, Manaea, Athletics

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Bryce Harper caused some social media buzz after the free agent outfielder “liked” an Instagram post from MLB.com questioning whether the Dodgers were the favorites for Harper’s services.  (NBC Sports Bay Area’s Dalton Johnson was among those who reported on the story.)  It should be noted that the “like” came from Harper’s verified Instagram account and thus perhaps not necessarily from Harper himself if anyone else has access to Harper’s account.  The “like” was also removed from the original post once the MLB.com account called attention to it in a follow-up posting.  It could be a hint, it could be just a misclick, or it could be somewhere in between, though speculation continues to swirl around the possibility of Harper landing in Los Angeles.

In case Santa needs some reading material during his downtime tonight, here are some Christmas Eve items from around the baseball world…

  • Both the Yankees and Mets had interest in Andrew Miller, though neither New York team extended an actual offer to the free agent lefty, SNY.tv’s Andy Martino reports (via Twitter).  “Durability concerns led them to back off,” Martino writes, as Miller was limited to just 34 innings in 2018 due to a 60-day DL stint with a knee injury, plus separate DL stints for less-serious shoulder and hamstring injuries.  Despite those issues, Miller was still able to land a two-year deal from the Cardinals worth $25MM in guaranteed money, which could end up being something of a bargain for St. Louis if Miller is healthy and able to regain his past dominance.  Both the Yankees and Mets are continuing to look for bullpen help, and the Mets have already made relief pitching a big focus of their winter business, acquiring Edwin Diaz and signing Jeurys Familia.
  • The Athletics are going “to be opportunistic and patient” in their search for starting pitching, Billy Beane told reporters (including the San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea).  Though Mike Fiers just re-signed with the team, more work is necessary to bolster a rotation that is loaded with inexperience and injury questions.  Since the A’s can’t spend at the top of the pitching market, “waiting it out is probably the way we’re going to look at it,” Beane said, so the club will see if it can grab an arm or two once prices start to drop later in the offseason.
  • Beane also provided some news on Sean Manaea’s status, saying that the left-hander could be back in action “perhaps around the All-Star break.”  This represents another positive development in Manaea’s timeline, as the young southpaw was initially projected to miss the entire 2019 season after undergoing shoulder surgery last September.  Immediately after the procedure, however, manager Bob Melvin was cautiously optimistic that Manaea could return late in 2019.  It’ll still be a while before we have a solid idea about how long Manaea will be out, and the Athletics are also sure to be as cautious as possible with the 26-year-old.

MLBTR Poll: Who Won The Dodgers/Reds Trade?

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The Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds recently agreed to a seven-player trade that shook up the National League and set the rumor mill afire. In case you missed it, the deal sent the quartet of Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood, and Kyle Farmer, plus $7MM cash to the Reds in exchange for Homer Bailey and two prospects: Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs, the Reds’ 13th and 8th ranked prospects, respectively, per Fangraphs. Reactions and analysis have landed on both sides of the ledger, though any subsequent transactions stemming from the payroll and roster changes on either side will give further cause for debate down the line.

The Reds have been vocal about upgrading no matter the cost this winter, especially for pitching, and while the additions were to presumably come via increased spending in free agency, here they explore a more creative means of adding talent. Having seen enough of Homer Bailey over the years, President of Baseball Ops Dick Williams put the $28MM owed Bailey to good use in acquiring three proven major league contributors. Under different circumstances, Williams might be praised for not handcuffing the team with future payroll obligations, but given that this deal feels in part driven by Cincinnati’s inability to attract major free agents, the one-year contracts of Puig, Kemp and Wood only highlights the lack of guaranteed long-term value in the return.

The primary critique here for the Reds is that they surrendered twelve total years of control in Downs and Gray, who slot in as the Dodgers’ new #7 and #16 ranked prospects, per MLB.com. The complete absence of guaranteed future value puts a lot of pressure on the team to capitalize in 2019, a real challenge coming off a 95-loss season. Should Puig, Kemp and Wood walk at the end of the year, they will have surrendered legitimate future talent for a trio that’s not likely to pull them from the depths of the NL Central. Even if the Reds do surprise this season and leapfrog the Pirates, Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers, they still could lose this trio to free agency and be worse off for the future than they were before their acquisition.

On the other hand, attendance has waned at Great American Ballpark. Puig’s power and personality both ought to play well there and give fans something to root for. Further, if for instance, they’ve been unable to get much traction on this year’s crop of lefty free agent starters, then having a one year head start with Wood might be the best way to sign him long-term in Cincinnati. Prospects are high-risk assets, and it could be the Reds don’t believe the future value of Downs and Gray is all that high. Or, they might be banking on getting better prospect value in return at the trade deadline should the Reds fall out of contention early. There’s a lot of speculation above, but the fact is the Reds front office found a way to turn Homey Bailey into two exciting, productive players/trade chips (plus Matt Kemp).

For the Dodgers, they jettisoned 6 fWAR from their 2018 pennant winning team for $28MM in dead money and a pair of prospects. If they don’t turn around and use the cost savings in free agency, that’s a lot of talent to send away just so their billionaire owners can avoid paying the luxury tax. For all Puig’s antics, he brought real fire to the club, and in his six seasons with the team, not only did he accumulate 16.8 fWAR, but they won the NL West in each of those six seasons. As for Wood, one could argue there’s a lot of uncertainty around the lefties remaining in the Dodger rotation: Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu have not been fully healthy, Rich Hill, 38, is a full decade older than Wood and Julio Urias, 22, may be ready to step into the rotation, but after missing almost all of 2018, he’s far from a sure thing. Wood has his own injury history, but he is a proven asset when healthy, which he has been of late, and he carries a career 3.29 ERA (3.36 FIP, 3.49 xFIP, 3.66 SIERA). As the adage goes, you can never have enough pitching.

On the other hand, the Dodgers added two pretty decent prospects and slipped below the tax line (for now) while dealing from areas of depth. The outfield was log-jammed anyway with Kemp and Puig. Without them, there should be enough at bats to go around for Chris Taylor, Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernandez, Andrew Toles and Cody Bellinger. Plus, top prospect Alex Verdugo, still only 22, may finally have the opportunity to shine at the big league level. As for the rotation, add Walker Buehler and Kenta Maeda to the names above and the Dodgers have enough top-of-the-line starting pitching to enter 2019 even if they decide to pocket the savings from this deal. Kemp and Puig were fun, but they were volatile on-field assets who were going to siphon at bats from the younger, higher upside outfielders (namely, Bellinger and Verdugo) already on the roster.

The elephant in the room, of course, is Bryce Harper. Heads were immediately sent spinning with the possibility of this move being a precursor to the Dodgers signing Harper in free agency, and what’s worse – that makes a lot of sense. They cleared payroll space and positional opportunity, in doing so creating the market/payroll/need fit that previously didn’t seem to exist for Harper. The White Sox and Phillies are ready to spend, but they likely can’t compete with a fully armed Los Angeles payroll. The Cubs are said to be watching, the Nationals haven’t given up on him in theory, and nobody believes the Yankees when they say they aren’t interested, which is, in-and-of-itself, a testament to how classic a suitor they really are.

This blockbuster has the makings of a touchstone moment that will, in part, define this winter’s dealings, but it’s time to see where MLBTR readers land on judging the returns. Does the flexibility this deal affords the Dodgers make them the winners? Or did the Reds take advantage of the Dodgers desire to shed some payroll and walk away with the better return? Let us know your Dodgers grade, your Reds grade, and who you think “won the deal” in this poll.

Latest On The Cubs, Bryce Harper

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Cubs executives met with Bryce Harper and agent Scott Boras during the Winter Meetings, holding discussions that reportedly were around three hours in length, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.  No deal appears to be close between the two sides, though the most intriguing detail stemming from the meeting is that president of baseball operations Theo Epstein asked Harper and Boras to check in with the Cubs before agreeing to a deal with another team, in order to give the Cubs more time to try and create payroll space for the free agent slugger.

We’ve heard all offseason long that the Cubs have little in the way of spending capacity, and outside of modest deals to sign Daniel Descalso and Kendall Graveman, there hasn’t been much activity at all coming out of Wrigley Field.  The decision to exercise Cole Hamels’ club option is still the Cubs’ biggest move this winter, and that transaction required a corresponding move (trading Drew Smyly to the Rangers) in order to clear some money off the books.

The Cubs certainly have their share of high-priced contracts that haven’t yet worked out — Jason Heyward, Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, Brian Duensing, Brandon Kintzler, and Brandon Morrow stand out as players who delivered subpar seasons in 2018, either due to injuries or just a poor performance.  Of course, those same reasons present major obstacles in finding a trade partner for any of those names.  Adding to the team’s difficulty is that the Cubs firmly intend on being contenders in 2019, which is why they aren’t seriously considering dealing the likes of Kris Bryant or Anthony Rizzo.

Some creativity will certainly be required if Epstein and his front office plan to make a serious run at Harper, considering that Boras has every intention of landing a record-setting contract for the outfielder.  Chicago could certainly explore the type of luxury tax-reducing salary dump trade that the Dodgers have become experts at in recent years, most recently their seven-player swap with the Reds just two days ago.  That very deal has been rumored to be part of the Dodgers’ own pursuit of Harper, so the Cubs could already be behind the Dodgers in that regard, though Harper (like most major Boras clients) isn’t expected to sign until later in the offseason.

As per Roster Resource, the Cubs are currently on the hook for a payroll in excess of $220MM next season, which comes with a projected luxury tax price tag of just under $234.5MM (reminder: the luxury tax payroll carries some different calculations than solely the dollar figures on the MLB payroll).  This puts them in position to exceed the $206MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, and thus pay a tax penalty of 20% of every dollar on the overage.  This is the “first-timer” rate for any team that exceeds the threshold but stayed under the line in the previous season.  If the Cubs’ tax bill were to exceed the $246MM mark next season, they’d face a larger financial penalty as well as a ten-spot drop in the draft order for their highest selection in the 2019 amateur draft.  (The Red Sox faced this penalty for their $40MM+ overage last season.)

The Cubs have owed luxury tax just once in their history, as crossing the CBT threshold in 2016 resulted in a $2.96MM tax bill.  Needless to say, this was a small price to pay considering that the Cubs ended their World Series drought that season.  As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has observed in the past, the actual dollar amount surrendered for these luxury tax payments is a veritable drop in the bucket for a big-market team, so there isn’t any major financial downside for a team to pass the threshold once, or even multiple times.

The Cubs are also expected to have even more revenue on hand in the form of a new TV contract, though it could be that ownership wants to have that money firmly in place before making any future financial commitments.  2019 is also the last year of guaranteed salaries for Hamels, Morrow, Kintzler, Duensing, Ben Zobrist, Steve Cishek, and Pedro Strop, so quite a bit of payroll money will be available next winter to help in ducking under the tax threshold, or at least avoiding the higher $40MM+ overage penalty.

Reaction & Analysis: The Dodgers/Reds Trade

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The Dodgers and Reds joined forces on a fascinating seven-player swap on Friday that saw Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer, and $7MM in cash considerations go to Cincinnati for Homer Bailey and prospects Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray.  With so many financial and on-field components to this trade, it isn’t any surprise that has been a lot of analysis surrounding what this means for both the Reds and Dodgers both in terms of the pieces involved in this specific deal, and in future moves both this winter and beyond.  Here are some of the many takes on this noteworthy trade…

  • Immediately after news of the trade broke, the buzz was that the Dodgers’ latest round of “baseball money-laundering” (as one executive described it to ESPN’s Buster Olney) was a step towards a push for Bryce Harper.  It remains to be seen if the Dodgers would really be willing to offer the decade-long, record-breaking contract that agent Scott Boras is demanding for his client, as such a move isn’t characteristic of Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman.  A shorter-term deal with a record-setting average annual salary likely wouldn’t appeal to Boras, Olney notes, but Harper himself could be open to such a deal if he is truly as eager to join the Dodgers as some reports have claimed.
  • The Dodgers also could have been paring their payroll not for Harper, but for targets in the 2019-20 offseason, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes.  With Rich Hill, Hyun-Jin Ryu, David Freese, and Bailey’s salary all coming off the books, Los Angeles will have $64MM to spend on free agents and trade targets next winter.  Now that the team has finally gotten under the luxury tax threshold, the Dodgers might want to minimize their penalty by only taking a one-year hit next offseason rather than again surpass the threshold this winter (i.e. to sign Harper) and thus position themselves for a heftier repeater tax in a year’s time.
  • ESPN.com’s Keith Law (subscription required) didn’t love the trade from the Reds’ perspective, writing that Cincinnati “got a little bit better, but perhaps not as much as they need to” in order to really contend for the postseason.  Puig and Wood represent upgrades on paper, though both players come with their share of question marks, and Law argues that the Reds would benefit using Kemp solely as a backup while Jesse Winker gets everyday action in left left.  Law provides some scouting info on Downs and Gray, and notes that the Reds got a lot of trade calls about Gray this offseason.
  • In contrast to Law, The Athletic’s Mo Egger (subscription required) calls the trade “a no-brainer” move for the Reds, arguing that the team benefits simply by gaining some productive MLB regulars for Bailey, who hasn’t been an effective pitcher for years due to injuries.  While this trade alone won’t make the Reds into contenders, Egger feels more is yet to come this offseason, as Cincinnati still hasn’t made any big free agent signings or begun spending its promised extra payroll dollars.
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