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Bryce Harper

Quick Hits: Harper, Miller, Mets, Yankees, Manaea, Athletics

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Bryce Harper caused some social media buzz after the free agent outfielder “liked” an Instagram post from MLB.com questioning whether the Dodgers were the favorites for Harper’s services.  (NBC Sports Bay Area’s Dalton Johnson was among those who reported on the story.)  It should be noted that the “like” came from Harper’s verified Instagram account and thus perhaps not necessarily from Harper himself if anyone else has access to Harper’s account.  The “like” was also removed from the original post once the MLB.com account called attention to it in a follow-up posting.  It could be a hint, it could be just a misclick, or it could be somewhere in between, though speculation continues to swirl around the possibility of Harper landing in Los Angeles.

In case Santa needs some reading material during his downtime tonight, here are some Christmas Eve items from around the baseball world…

  • Both the Yankees and Mets had interest in Andrew Miller, though neither New York team extended an actual offer to the free agent lefty, SNY.tv’s Andy Martino reports (via Twitter).  “Durability concerns led them to back off,” Martino writes, as Miller was limited to just 34 innings in 2018 due to a 60-day DL stint with a knee injury, plus separate DL stints for less-serious shoulder and hamstring injuries.  Despite those issues, Miller was still able to land a two-year deal from the Cardinals worth $25MM in guaranteed money, which could end up being something of a bargain for St. Louis if Miller is healthy and able to regain his past dominance.  Both the Yankees and Mets are continuing to look for bullpen help, and the Mets have already made relief pitching a big focus of their winter business, acquiring Edwin Diaz and signing Jeurys Familia.
  • The Athletics are going “to be opportunistic and patient” in their search for starting pitching, Billy Beane told reporters (including the San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea).  Though Mike Fiers just re-signed with the team, more work is necessary to bolster a rotation that is loaded with inexperience and injury questions.  Since the A’s can’t spend at the top of the pitching market, “waiting it out is probably the way we’re going to look at it,” Beane said, so the club will see if it can grab an arm or two once prices start to drop later in the offseason.
  • Beane also provided some news on Sean Manaea’s status, saying that the left-hander could be back in action “perhaps around the All-Star break.”  This represents another positive development in Manaea’s timeline, as the young southpaw was initially projected to miss the entire 2019 season after undergoing shoulder surgery last September.  Immediately after the procedure, however, manager Bob Melvin was cautiously optimistic that Manaea could return late in 2019.  It’ll still be a while before we have a solid idea about how long Manaea will be out, and the Athletics are also sure to be as cautious as possible with the 26-year-old.

MLBTR Poll: Who Won The Dodgers/Reds Trade?

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The Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds recently agreed to a seven-player trade that shook up the National League and set the rumor mill afire. In case you missed it, the deal sent the quartet of Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood, and Kyle Farmer, plus $7MM cash to the Reds in exchange for Homer Bailey and two prospects: Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs, the Reds’ 13th and 8th ranked prospects, respectively, per Fangraphs. Reactions and analysis have landed on both sides of the ledger, though any subsequent transactions stemming from the payroll and roster changes on either side will give further cause for debate down the line.

The Reds have been vocal about upgrading no matter the cost this winter, especially for pitching, and while the additions were to presumably come via increased spending in free agency, here they explore a more creative means of adding talent. Having seen enough of Homer Bailey over the years, President of Baseball Ops Dick Williams put the $28MM owed Bailey to good use in acquiring three proven major league contributors. Under different circumstances, Williams might be praised for not handcuffing the team with future payroll obligations, but given that this deal feels in part driven by Cincinnati’s inability to attract major free agents, the one-year contracts of Puig, Kemp and Wood only highlights the lack of guaranteed long-term value in the return.

The primary critique here for the Reds is that they surrendered twelve total years of control in Downs and Gray, who slot in as the Dodgers’ new #7 and #16 ranked prospects, per MLB.com. The complete absence of guaranteed future value puts a lot of pressure on the team to capitalize in 2019, a real challenge coming off a 95-loss season. Should Puig, Kemp and Wood walk at the end of the year, they will have surrendered legitimate future talent for a trio that’s not likely to pull them from the depths of the NL Central. Even if the Reds do surprise this season and leapfrog the Pirates, Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers, they still could lose this trio to free agency and be worse off for the future than they were before their acquisition.

On the other hand, attendance has waned at Great American Ballpark. Puig’s power and personality both ought to play well there and give fans something to root for. Further, if for instance, they’ve been unable to get much traction on this year’s crop of lefty free agent starters, then having a one year head start with Wood might be the best way to sign him long-term in Cincinnati. Prospects are high-risk assets, and it could be the Reds don’t believe the future value of Downs and Gray is all that high. Or, they might be banking on getting better prospect value in return at the trade deadline should the Reds fall out of contention early. There’s a lot of speculation above, but the fact is the Reds front office found a way to turn Homey Bailey into two exciting, productive players/trade chips (plus Matt Kemp).

For the Dodgers, they jettisoned 6 fWAR from their 2018 pennant winning team for $28MM in dead money and a pair of prospects. If they don’t turn around and use the cost savings in free agency, that’s a lot of talent to send away just so their billionaire owners can avoid paying the luxury tax. For all Puig’s antics, he brought real fire to the club, and in his six seasons with the team, not only did he accumulate 16.8 fWAR, but they won the NL West in each of those six seasons. As for Wood, one could argue there’s a lot of uncertainty around the lefties remaining in the Dodger rotation: Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu have not been fully healthy, Rich Hill, 38, is a full decade older than Wood and Julio Urias, 22, may be ready to step into the rotation, but after missing almost all of 2018, he’s far from a sure thing. Wood has his own injury history, but he is a proven asset when healthy, which he has been of late, and he carries a career 3.29 ERA (3.36 FIP, 3.49 xFIP, 3.66 SIERA). As the adage goes, you can never have enough pitching.

On the other hand, the Dodgers added two pretty decent prospects and slipped below the tax line (for now) while dealing from areas of depth. The outfield was log-jammed anyway with Kemp and Puig. Without them, there should be enough at bats to go around for Chris Taylor, Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernandez, Andrew Toles and Cody Bellinger. Plus, top prospect Alex Verdugo, still only 22, may finally have the opportunity to shine at the big league level. As for the rotation, add Walker Buehler and Kenta Maeda to the names above and the Dodgers have enough top-of-the-line starting pitching to enter 2019 even if they decide to pocket the savings from this deal. Kemp and Puig were fun, but they were volatile on-field assets who were going to siphon at bats from the younger, higher upside outfielders (namely, Bellinger and Verdugo) already on the roster.

The elephant in the room, of course, is Bryce Harper. Heads were immediately sent spinning with the possibility of this move being a precursor to the Dodgers signing Harper in free agency, and what’s worse – that makes a lot of sense. They cleared payroll space and positional opportunity, in doing so creating the market/payroll/need fit that previously didn’t seem to exist for Harper. The White Sox and Phillies are ready to spend, but they likely can’t compete with a fully armed Los Angeles payroll. The Cubs are said to be watching, the Nationals haven’t given up on him in theory, and nobody believes the Yankees when they say they aren’t interested, which is, in-and-of-itself, a testament to how classic a suitor they really are.

This blockbuster has the makings of a touchstone moment that will, in part, define this winter’s dealings, but it’s time to see where MLBTR readers land on judging the returns. Does the flexibility this deal affords the Dodgers make them the winners? Or did the Reds take advantage of the Dodgers desire to shed some payroll and walk away with the better return? Let us know your Dodgers grade, your Reds grade, and who you think “won the deal” in this poll.

Latest On The Cubs, Bryce Harper

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Cubs executives met with Bryce Harper and agent Scott Boras during the Winter Meetings, holding discussions that reportedly were around three hours in length, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.  No deal appears to be close between the two sides, though the most intriguing detail stemming from the meeting is that president of baseball operations Theo Epstein asked Harper and Boras to check in with the Cubs before agreeing to a deal with another team, in order to give the Cubs more time to try and create payroll space for the free agent slugger.

We’ve heard all offseason long that the Cubs have little in the way of spending capacity, and outside of modest deals to sign Daniel Descalso and Kendall Graveman, there hasn’t been much activity at all coming out of Wrigley Field.  The decision to exercise Cole Hamels’ club option is still the Cubs’ biggest move this winter, and that transaction required a corresponding move (trading Drew Smyly to the Rangers) in order to clear some money off the books.

The Cubs certainly have their share of high-priced contracts that haven’t yet worked out — Jason Heyward, Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, Brian Duensing, Brandon Kintzler, and Brandon Morrow stand out as players who delivered subpar seasons in 2018, either due to injuries or just a poor performance.  Of course, those same reasons present major obstacles in finding a trade partner for any of those names.  Adding to the team’s difficulty is that the Cubs firmly intend on being contenders in 2019, which is why they aren’t seriously considering dealing the likes of Kris Bryant or Anthony Rizzo.

Some creativity will certainly be required if Epstein and his front office plan to make a serious run at Harper, considering that Boras has every intention of landing a record-setting contract for the outfielder.  Chicago could certainly explore the type of luxury tax-reducing salary dump trade that the Dodgers have become experts at in recent years, most recently their seven-player swap with the Reds just two days ago.  That very deal has been rumored to be part of the Dodgers’ own pursuit of Harper, so the Cubs could already be behind the Dodgers in that regard, though Harper (like most major Boras clients) isn’t expected to sign until later in the offseason.

As per Roster Resource, the Cubs are currently on the hook for a payroll in excess of $220MM next season, which comes with a projected luxury tax price tag of just under $234.5MM (reminder: the luxury tax payroll carries some different calculations than solely the dollar figures on the MLB payroll).  This puts them in position to exceed the $206MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, and thus pay a tax penalty of 20% of every dollar on the overage.  This is the “first-timer” rate for any team that exceeds the threshold but stayed under the line in the previous season.  If the Cubs’ tax bill were to exceed the $246MM mark next season, they’d face a larger financial penalty as well as a ten-spot drop in the draft order for their highest selection in the 2019 amateur draft.  (The Red Sox faced this penalty for their $40MM+ overage last season.)

The Cubs have owed luxury tax just once in their history, as crossing the CBT threshold in 2016 resulted in a $2.96MM tax bill.  Needless to say, this was a small price to pay considering that the Cubs ended their World Series drought that season.  As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has observed in the past, the actual dollar amount surrendered for these luxury tax payments is a veritable drop in the bucket for a big-market team, so there isn’t any major financial downside for a team to pass the threshold once, or even multiple times.

The Cubs are also expected to have even more revenue on hand in the form of a new TV contract, though it could be that ownership wants to have that money firmly in place before making any future financial commitments.  2019 is also the last year of guaranteed salaries for Hamels, Morrow, Kintzler, Duensing, Ben Zobrist, Steve Cishek, and Pedro Strop, so quite a bit of payroll money will be available next winter to help in ducking under the tax threshold, or at least avoiding the higher $40MM+ overage penalty.

Reaction & Analysis: The Dodgers/Reds Trade

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The Dodgers and Reds joined forces on a fascinating seven-player swap on Friday that saw Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer, and $7MM in cash considerations go to Cincinnati for Homer Bailey and prospects Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray.  With so many financial and on-field components to this trade, it isn’t any surprise that has been a lot of analysis surrounding what this means for both the Reds and Dodgers both in terms of the pieces involved in this specific deal, and in future moves both this winter and beyond.  Here are some of the many takes on this noteworthy trade…

  • Immediately after news of the trade broke, the buzz was that the Dodgers’ latest round of “baseball money-laundering” (as one executive described it to ESPN’s Buster Olney) was a step towards a push for Bryce Harper.  It remains to be seen if the Dodgers would really be willing to offer the decade-long, record-breaking contract that agent Scott Boras is demanding for his client, as such a move isn’t characteristic of Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman.  A shorter-term deal with a record-setting average annual salary likely wouldn’t appeal to Boras, Olney notes, but Harper himself could be open to such a deal if he is truly as eager to join the Dodgers as some reports have claimed.
  • The Dodgers also could have been paring their payroll not for Harper, but for targets in the 2019-20 offseason, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes.  With Rich Hill, Hyun-Jin Ryu, David Freese, and Bailey’s salary all coming off the books, Los Angeles will have $64MM to spend on free agents and trade targets next winter.  Now that the team has finally gotten under the luxury tax threshold, the Dodgers might want to minimize their penalty by only taking a one-year hit next offseason rather than again surpass the threshold this winter (i.e. to sign Harper) and thus position themselves for a heftier repeater tax in a year’s time.
  • ESPN.com’s Keith Law (subscription required) didn’t love the trade from the Reds’ perspective, writing that Cincinnati “got a little bit better, but perhaps not as much as they need to” in order to really contend for the postseason.  Puig and Wood represent upgrades on paper, though both players come with their share of question marks, and Law argues that the Reds would benefit using Kemp solely as a backup while Jesse Winker gets everyday action in left left.  Law provides some scouting info on Downs and Gray, and notes that the Reds got a lot of trade calls about Gray this offseason.
  • In contrast to Law, The Athletic’s Mo Egger (subscription required) calls the trade “a no-brainer” move for the Reds, arguing that the team benefits simply by gaining some productive MLB regulars for Bailey, who hasn’t been an effective pitcher for years due to injuries.  While this trade alone won’t make the Reds into contenders, Egger feels more is yet to come this offseason, as Cincinnati still hasn’t made any big free agent signings or begun spending its promised extra payroll dollars.

Latest On Manny Machado’s Market, Following Meeting With Phillies

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Manny Machado completed a three-city tour of potential landing spots in Philadelphia today, where he met with the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park and was taken to dinner by several key members of the organization (links via MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki and Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia). Owner John Middleton, president Andy MacPhail, GM Matt Klentak, manager Gabe Kapler and several members of Kapler’s coaching staff were on hand to try to sway Machado toward coming to Philadelphia.

Machado, as one would expect, was vague when approached by the Philadelphia media and asked about his at Citizens Bank Park, telling reporters that the experience was “pretty awesome” and that he “learned a lot about the organization.”

The Phillies, Zolecki writes, prefer Machado to fellow free agent Bryce Harper. Salisbury indicates the same, portraying Harper as a more realistic target should the Phillies miss out on Machado. He adds that the Phils “seem willing” to outbid the Yankees and make the highest offer for Machado. Joel Sherman of the New York Post agrees, calling it a “near certainty” that the Phillies “and possibly even the White Sox” are willing to bid more on Machado than the Yankees. Per Zolecki, the Phils have maintained confidence that they can convince Machado to sign in Philadelphia despite the fact that they’d play him at third base while Machado’s preference remains to play shortstop. The Yankees, after all, will only have shortstop open for the first portion of the season before Didi Gregorius returns, and Fancred’s Jon Heyman again wrote Thursday afternoon that the organization “would love to keep” Gregorius beyond the 2019 season.

At this point, there’s no clear timeline on when Machado will reach a decision about his next team. The infielder himself told Zolecki and others that determining when to sign “is [his] agent’s job” and that he is “just enjoying the ride.” Yesterday did bring about a small flurry of free-agent activity — Trevor Cahill, Daniel Murphy, Joakim Soria and Anibal Sanchez all agreed to terms, while Andrew Miller is said to be close — but none of those deals will come close to approaching the magnitude of Machado’s eventual contract. With the holiday season at hand, there figures to be a lull in Hot Stove activity, so barring a quick decision on an already in-place offer, Machado’s free agency could well drag on into the New Year. There’s been no indication that any of the three teams with which he met this week has made its best and final offer — or any formal offer at all, for that matter.

Market Notes: Ross, Harper, Phillies, Realmuto, Minor

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Long-time backstop David Ross has agreed to a new, multi-year deal to continue working as an analyst with ESPN. That news would seem to eliminate him from contention as a possible Cubs bench coach target, which is no surprise given recent indications. It would also appear to suggest that Ross won’t be looking to move into a dugout in the near future, though he’ll no doubt remain a popular candidate for significant gigs every time there’s an opening.

Let’s check in on the latest market notes …

  • The Dodgers’ interest in star free agent Bryce Harper remains a storyline to watch. The Los Angeles club doesn’t seem inclined to tantalize Harper with a record-setting overall guarantee, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests (subscription link). Rather, the club would be more interested in a shorter-term pact with a “high” average annual value and multiple opt-out clauses along the way. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez heard largely the same late last week, while adding a few intriguing additional details. Harper “badly wants to be a Dodger,” says Gonzalez, but would have to sacrifice years and dollars in order to make that dream a reality. That also meshes with a recent report from ESPN’s Buster Olney, wherein Olney suggested that a front-loaded deal with a huge annual value could be the most appealing scenario to Los Angeles. Details are understandably sparse at this point, but generally, it stands to reason that if Harper and agent Scott Boras were to consider anything shy of a record-setting contract in terms of overall value and/or length, they’d likely need to establish a new high-water mark in terms of AAV by a considerable margin. That doesn’t seem like something that Harper’s camp would consider until a ways down the line, however, as Boras & Co. are quite likely still locked in on a longer-term mega-deal. The timeline for Harper’s signing remains unclear at the moment.
  • Harper and Manny Machado will continue to fascinate until they sign, but with both still holding in-person meetings it could take a while for that to come together. What that may mean for the Phillies is worth pondering, as the organization has its sights set on significant improvements in multiple areas. Club president Andy MacPhail says there’s still ongoing interest in both stars, but also notes “there are a lot of different ways to improve,” as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes. Citing a need to “give yourself enough latitude to deal with each offseason as it comes,” MacPhail certainly struck a somewhat different tone than owner John Middleton did recently. In part, he sought to emphasize the more restrained elements of Middleton’s comments — particularly, those indicating that the club does not feel it must land Harper and/or Machado to have had a productive offseason.
  • The Astros are “back in the mix” for Marlins star J.T. Realmuto, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro (via Twitter). It’s fair to wonder whether the Houston club was ever really fully out of the hunt. The club did add Robinson Chirinos and still has Max Stassi on hand, but that combination surely isn’t sufficient to sap the ’Stros’ interest in the top catcher in the game. Perhaps it’s not out of the question that the club would consider carrying three catchers if they swing a blockbuster, with Realmuto perhaps representing an option in the DH/first base mix and Chirinos also providing a potent bench bat against left-handed pitching (.258/.353/.485 career slash). Whatever the plan would be, the Astros first need to land Realmuto. As Frisaro hints, the club’s reported deal with Michael Brantley could be seen as an indication that top prospect Kyle Tucker — who’d surely be of keen interest to the Fish — might just be available. Of course, as Frisaro also notes, a variety of other teams remain in pursuit of Realmuto at this stage.
  • The Brewers nearly struck a deal with the Rangers for Mike Minor, Rosenthal further reports (subscription link), though it’s largely unclear what shape such an agreement would have taken and whether talks are still open. For Milwaukee, the connection makes clear that boosting the pitching mix remains a goal of the offseason. The organization has quite a few solid pieces in place, many of which could be utilized as needed in the rotation, in the bullpen, or as minor-league depth. Minor would certainly fit that general mold, as he has shown the ability to function as a high-quality reliever or solid back-of-the-rotation starter in recent years. It’s notable that the Texas org seems to be batting around multiple trade scenarios on the lefty, even in a winter in which they have taken further risks on other veteran hurlers.

Poll: Who Will Be The Next Top-10 Free Agent To Sign?

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A year ago on this date, only one of the top ten names on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents of the 2017-18 offseason had decided on their team for the upcoming season.  That player, in fact, wasn’t technically even a free agent at all — Masahiro Tanaka decided against opting out of his contract with the Yankees, thus avoiding the open market altogether.

So, at least in comparison to the uniquely slow pace of last year’s offseason, we’ve already seen quite a bit of action on the free agent front this winter.  After today’s news of Wilson Ramos’ deal with the Mets, seven of the top 25 players in this year’s top 50 ranking have already reached agreements, including three members of the top ten — Patrick Corbin (#3) signed with the Nationals, Nathan Eovaldi (#7) re-signed with the Red Sox, and J.A. Happ (#9) has reportedly agreed to rejoin the Yankees.

There have been a lot of rumors swirling around the remaining seven players in our top ten, and it’s anyone guess as to which will be the next to sign.  Let’s take a look at where things reportedly stand with each member of this septet….

Bryce Harper: With Harper and agent Scott Boras reportedly looking for nothing less than the biggest contract in baseball history, it would admittedly be surprising to see the former Nationals outfielder come off the board next.  Harper, his wife Kayla, and Boras has reportedly held court with multiple teams in private meetings in Las Vegas, though the specific identities of these teams isn’t yet clear.  Teams like the Dodgers, White Sox, Phillies, and Cardinals are known to have some level of interest in Harper’s services, while we’ve also heard some teams (like the Nationals and Yankees) seemingly count themselves out of “Harper’s Bazaar,” as Boras calls it.  Speculative fits like the Cubs or Giants could also be out due to budget constraints.  Boras has a penchant for waiting until deep into the offseason to find a satisfactory contract for his clients, so I’d guess that we won’t know the identity of Harper’s next team before 2018 is over.

Manny Machado: The star infielder is set for in-person meetings with the White Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and at least one more team this week.  It’s impossible to mention Machado’s free agency without also mentioning Harper, as the two share many of the same suitors and it seems highly unlikely that one team would be willing to spend big enough to add both to the same roster.  Machado’s controversial history of overly-aggressive (or, as some might say, outright dirty) play has been a factor in his market, as was his October interview with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal about his admitted lack of maximum effort on some plays, and his admission that “I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ‘Johnny Hustle.’ ”  While questions about Machado’s personality are legitimate, especially as he is looking for a record-breaking contract, it’s also possible some teams are using Machado’s interview as leverage to try and lower his price tag.  We should know more about Machado’s status once these in-person meetings are complete, and if a team’s concerns about his work ethic are erased after a face-to-face meetings, it isn’t impossible that a signing could come before Christmas.

Dallas Keuchel: Another Boras client, Keuchel might not have quite as long a wait on the market since there has already been something of a run on free agent starting pitching, as Corbin, Eovaldi, Happ, and Charlie Morton have all found new teams.  On the trade front, there now seems to be less chance that the Indians could deal Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, while the Mets’ flurry of acquisitions have made a Noah Syndergaard trade less likely.  Teams that missed out on these frontline arms may now be willing to meet Keuchel’s hefty asking price, and give up the draft pick compensation necessary to sign the lefty since he rejected the Astros’ qualifying offer.  Teams like the Reds, Braves, Padres, Blue Jays, Phillies, and Nationals have all been reported to have varying levels of Keuchel’s services.

Craig Kimbrel: Teams would also need to surrender a draft to sign Kimbrel since he turned down a QO from the Red Sox, and might also have to fork over the biggest contract ever given to a relief pitcher.  A big initial ask is a common negotiating tactic, of course, though even at a lower amount, Kimbrel and his representatives clearly see him worthy of a deal akin to Aroldis Chapman/Kenley Jansen money.  The Cardinals and Phillies have both been linked to Kimbrel, and the Red Sox may or may not still be in on their former closer.  The recent signings of Jeurys Familiar and Joe Kelly indicate that the bullpen market is starting to move, though Kimbrel is obviously in a higher financial level than those types of contracts.

Yasmani Grandal: The Angels, Astros, and White Sox have all been linked to Grandal, though Houston might be out of the catching market after signing Robinson Chirinos.  Chicago also recently added James McCann, though that isn’t quite as significant an obstacle to a future move for Grandal, should the Sox deal Welington Castillo and then install Grandal as the starter ahead of McCann.  Even before Ramos became a Met, Grandal’s biggest competition has likely been J.T. Realmuto, though teams have thus far balked at meeting the Marlins’ large asking price in a trade.  The Mets are one team that decided to simply sign a quality catcher rather than trade for Realmuto, and another backstop-needy team could do the same by inking Grandal, though he’s another QO free agent.  There has been some indication that the Marlins could decide by Christmas whether to keep or trade Realmuto, so once that decision is made either way, Grandal’s market will gain some clarity.

A.J. Pollock: Here’s another player who turned down a qualifying offer, and another with a pricey contract demand (reportedly in the $80MM range).  The Mets, Braves, Reds, and Astros are known to have interest in Pollock, plus with so many trade rumors swirling around other outfielders, more suitors could easily emerge as more outfield spots are created.

Michael Brantley: Machado and Brantley are the only two of these seven players who don’t have QO compensation tied to their services, which gives Brantley in particular a boost as he tests free agency for the first time in his career.  Furthermore, Brantley also appears willing to try playing first base, which adds a bit of extra versatility to his repertoire for any interested teams, even if Brantley would still primarily play as an outfielder.  What could dampen enthusiasm, however, is Brantley’s initial asking price, reportedly something akin to a $20MM average annual value over three years.  We’ve already heard that the Braves aren’t meeting that price, and other Brantley suitors like the Astros, Cardinals, and White Sox are also sure to aim for a lower number.

(poll link for app users)

AL Rumors: Harper, Machado, ChiSox, Yanks, Tulo, Astros, Reddick

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A quick trip around the American League…

  • Free-agent superstars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado may be primed to sign record-setting contracts this offseason, but it doesn’t appear either will get such a deal from the White Sox or Yankees. While the White Sox are known to be in the running for both players, their pursuit is less “frenzied” than it is “measured and modest,” writes ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required), who hears they’re not prepared to ink either Harper or Machado to a record pact. The Yankees, meanwhile, have been more connected to Machado than Harper. According to George A. King III of the New York Post, the Yankees’ interest in Machado is legitimate, but it’s not so ardent that they’re willing to hand him a 10-year, $300MM deal.
  • If the Yankees don’t sign Machado, they’ll need an infielder to replace shortstop Didi Gregorius, who will miss most or all of next season as a result of Tommy John surgery. With that in mind, they’ll “monitor” free agent Troy Tulowitzki’s market, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe relays. There are six teams in contention for the injury-prone, once-great Tulowitzki, whom the Blue Jays released this week at a cost of $38MM, though it’s unclear whether the Yankees are among them. The career-long shortstop, 34, would likely play second base in New York, given the presence of younger and better middle infielder Gleyber Torres.
  • The Astros are mulling adding two hitters and are “open” to trading outfielder Josh Reddick, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). However, the likelihood is that the Astros will only acquire one hitter, per Rosenthal, who adds that they haven’t had much luck trying to move Reddick this offseason. Not only is the 33-year-old Reddick coming off an unspectacular season in which he hit .242/.318/.400 (99 wRC+) with 1.1 fWAR in 487 plate appearances, but he’s due $26MM through 2020.

Post-Winter Meetings Rumors On Manny Machado, Bryce Harper

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Manny Machado will head to Philadelphia for an in-person visit with the Phillies next week, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, and George A. King III of the New York Post suggests that a similar visit to Yankee Stadium could be lined up for next week as well. The Yankees and Phillies are two of the reported four teams set to be aligning visits with the polarizing Machado, along with the White Sox and the ever-popular “mystery team.” For the Phillies, the acquisition of Jean Segura makes Machado a likelier fit at third base despite the infielder’s clear preference to play shortstop. Machado’s former third base coach in Baltimore, Bobby Dickerson, tells Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer that he believes Machado would move to third base if an offer to do so was the clear best offer he received in free agency. Perhaps more interestingly, Dickerson talks with Lauber about Machado’s personality, his preternatural defensive aptitude at third base and, in reference to Machado’s October villainy, his belief that Machado “is fine with being the bad boy.”

With the Winter Meetings now in the rear-view mirror, here’s a bit more on Machado and the market’s other top free agent…

  • White Sox GM Rick Hahn somewhat indirectly acknowledged his interest in both Machado and Bryce Harper on Thursday, as Bruce Levine writes for 670 The Score FM. “We are excited to be discussing impactful moves for the long term,” said Hahn of his team’s reported interest in the market’s top two free agents. “It’s good to have a seat at the table for some long impactful moves. This work does not mean anything is going to come together. … Even if we are able to convert on something big, there is a lot of work to do behind it to get us where we want to be (as an organization).” Levine suggests that an opt-out provision after three or four years would be a “significant draw” for Harper, though that much has been more or less expected for some time. Top free agents have increasingly gravitated toward the inclusion of such contracts, and several recent free-agent signings have included multiple opportunities to re-enter free agency (e.g. Jason Heyward, J.D. Martinez).
  • Also via Nightengale, agent Scott Boras implied in characteristically colorful fashion that he’s not concerned about early indications that some potential suitors (e.g. Yankees, Cardinals) have limited interest or trepidation when it comes to a legitimate pursuit of Harper. “When the nurse walks in the room with the thermometer, the issue is not what the thermometer says that day,” said Boras. “The issue is what’s the health of the patient when they’re ready to leave the hospital.” The Phillies and White Sox both remain in the mix on Harper, per the report, and Nightengale speculatively suggests that the Dodgers, who are reportedly trying to move Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig, shouldn’t be ruled out. Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, though, tweets that the Dodgers aren’t interested in pushing talks to 10 years on Harper. Nor, for that matter, are the Angels or Giants, each of whom has been previously mentioned as a potential dark horse.
  • ESPN’s Buster Olney writes that executives from other clubs and agents throughout the industry find it increasingly possible that the Phillies, long the presumptive favorite to sign one of Harper or Machado, could instead come away with neither in hand. Olney, too, suggests that the Dodgers’ efforts to move Kemp, Puig and other notable salaries could eventually result in the capacity to submit a winning offer to Harper. While there’s doubt that the Dodgers would offer the longest-term contract, Olney suggests perhaps a front-loaded deal with a substantial annual value from a team that has appeared in consecutive World Series would prove enticing. Meanwhile, the Yankees still present a viable threat to the Phillies for Machado as they look to close ground on the World Champion Red Sox.
  • There’s no indication that anything has changed for the Cubs, per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (subscription required), who writes that the team is “close to maxing out” its baseball operations budget for the 2019 season. Rather than acknowledge a need for any sort of augmentation to the roster, manager Joe Maddon suggested that the greater issue for the Cubs is to extract better performance from the talent already in house. Along those same lines, GM Jed Hoyer spoke of the promising signs he’s seen in Kris Bryant as he looks to rehab from 2018 shoulder woes.

Cardinals Rumors: Harper, Martinez, Rays, Pena, Pitching

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The Cardinals have discussed Bryce Harper as part of their talks with Scott Boras about the agent’s various clients, though it remains to be seen if the Cards are truly pursuing the free agent outfielder, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  St. Louis wasn’t one of the teams that asked for a private meeting with Harper and his camp in Las Vegas, for instance.  As part of a wide-ranging talk with Goold and other reporters yesterday, Boras didn’t rule any team out of the Harper sweepstakes, and made particular mention of the Cardinals’ resources.  “This is about winning and it’s about a good franchise and ownership, and the reality of it is that franchise is worth billions of dollars and they’re a top-10 revenue team,” Boras said.

Here’s more on the Cardinals’ offseason pursuits…

  • Jose Martinez has received a lot of trade interest from rival teams, GM Michael Girsch told reporters (including MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch and The Athletic’s Mark Saxon).  The Cardinals have explored various possibilities for a Martinez trade, including moving him for relief pitching or even simply a prospect package.  Though Martinez has hit very well in his brief career, he doesn’t have an everyday role in St. Louis now that Paul Goldschmidt is occupying first base, and Marcell Ozuna and Dexter Fowler are in the corner outfield spots.  Keeping Martinez as a backup at all positions is also less than ideal given Martinez’s poor defense.  As part of a reader mailbag piece, Goold mentions that the Rays have had interest in Martinez in the past, and could be a fit again since Martinez is probably best suited for DH duties on an American League team.  The right-handed hitting Martinez would be a nice complement to Tampa’s current left-handed hitting first base/DH mix of Jake Bauers and Ji-Man Choi.
  • Goold covers a wide variety of Cardinals questions in his mailbag piece, and he also mentions that the team has been in touch with Francisco Pena about returning as the backup catcher.  Jesus Sucre and Rene Rivera are also mentioned as names who could be comfortable with the limited playing time that comes with backing up workhorse catcher Yadier Molina.  Goold cites former Oriole Caleb Joseph as one available catcher who is looking for a larger portion of playing time.
  • The Cards haven’t been active on the starting pitching market, according to Goold, since the team is largely comfortable with its current rotation depth.  Adding another starter can’t be totally ruled out if the right fit can be found at the right price, though the Cardinals generally seem to feel that there isn’t a clear enough upgrade available at a price point that works for them.
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