Quick Hits: Orioles, Nationals, Steer
Orioles general manager Mike Elias told Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on Sunday that he expects top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez to crack the team’s Opening Day rotation out of camp this spring and that he also believes top outfield prospect Colton Cowser will be ready to make his MLB debut at some point in 2023.
Rodriguez was striding confidently toward Baltimore last summer before he suffered Grade 2 right lat strain while working in a game at Triple-A Norfolk in early June. He didn’t return to action in the minors until September, and by the time he got properly stretched out again, the O’s chances of a late-season push to the playoffs had fully cratered. The 23-year-old ultimately finished with a 2.62 ERA, 109 strikeouts and 28 walks in 75 2/3 innings (17 starts) between High-A Aberdeen, Double-A Bowie and Norfolk. He’s recorded a career 2.47 ERA with 419 strikeouts in 292 total professional frames since the Orioles selected him 11th overall in the 2018 MLB Draft, but the lineups and environments of the AL East obviously present a far greater test than what he’s seen on the farm.
Cowser, the No. 5 overall pick from the 2021 MLB Draft, also reached the Triple-A level in 2022 and produced an overall .278/.406/.469 batting line with 19 home runs and 18 stolen bases in his 138 minor league games. The 22-year-old has experience at all three outfield spots and boasts an .895 OPS so far as a pro. If there’s an injury to Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins or Anthony Santander, the ETA on Cowser could further shrink.
A brighter future is rapidly coming into focus at Camden Yards.
- Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo spoke glowingly of the organization’s young players and rising prospects at the club’s Hot Stove event for full-season-ticket holders this weekend, as relayed by Stephen Mears of TalkNats.com. CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia, Keibert Ruiz, Cade Cavalli, MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray all earned a specific mention. “This is the most lush and successful prospect list that we’ve ever had,” Rizzo said. “It’s the most talented players we’ve ever had in the farm system at one time.” The big buzz is that Cavalli could be positioned to join Gore and Gray in Washington’s season-opening starting rotation with Stephen Strasburg‘s health still a lingering uncertainty.
- Spencer Steer acknowledged at a Reds Caravan event over the weekend that he has his sights set on the everyday third base job in Cincinnati this season. “I’m going to do everything I can to win that spot,” he told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. “I think it’s doable and attainable. That will be my focus: getting into that lineup and staying in that lineup.” Acquired from the Twins at the trade deadline last August in the return package for Tyler Mahle, the 25-year-old Steer went on to bat .211/.306/.326 across his first 28 big league games. He was slashing .274/.364/.515 in the minors prior to his promotion to the Reds’ roster.
Injury Notes: Scherzer, Lowe, Cavalli, Ashby
The Mets have been without Max Scherzer for the past ten days, as the three-time Cy Young winner has battled some fatigue in his left oblique. That was a bit of a concern given that a strain in the muscle cost him around two months earlier this season, but Scherzer looks as if he’s on track to be reinstated when first eligible next Monday. He made a rehab start with Triple-A Syracuse tonight, tossing 59 pitches over 3 2/3 innings. After the game, Scherzer told reporters he feels “excellent” and would be ready to rejoin the big league rotation at the beginning of next week (via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com).
Scherzer’s prompt return is obviously a boon for a Mets team battling for a division title down the stretch. At 89-55, New York holds a half-game advantage over the Braves in the NL East. They’re a postseason lock, but securing the division is likely to come with a first-round bye as a top-two seed in the National League. New York is five games clear of the third-seeded Cardinals, who lead the NL Central, putting the East winner in good position to join the Dodgers in earning an immediate trip to the NL Division Series.
Some other injury updates around the game:
- The Rays just placed Brandon Lowe on the 10-day injured list yesterday, the second baseman’s third such stint of the 2022 season. Manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that an MRI revealed some inflammation in Lowe’s back. He’s headed for further evaluation to determine treatment possibilities, but Cash indicated the club is still hopeful he’ll return to the diamond this season. The Rays look set to mix-and-match at second base while Lowe’s out, giving the last three starts at the position to Taylor Walls, Jonathan Aranda and Isaac Paredes respectively. Walls is the best defender of the group, but he’s not hit well this year. Paredes has only a .293 on-base percentage but has connected on 18 home runs in 92 games. Aranda has only 15 big league games under his belt, but he’s raked at a .318/.394/.521 clip through 465 plate appearances with Triple-A Durham.
- Nationals right-hander Cade Cavalli has been out for the past two weeks after being diagnosed with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. That seems likely to end his season, as manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Bobby Blanco of MASNsports.com) that Cavalli is unlikely to make it back to game action this year. With three weeks remaining and the Nationals virtual locks for last place, there’s no reason for the club to take any chances with the prized young hurler. Martinez indicated that Cavalli has been cleared to start throwing after a brief shutdown period and the team feels he’ll be able to work from a mound before the season is out, but it seems that’ll be in a bullpen session rather than in-game work. Cavalli, generally regarded as the top pitching prospect in the organization, made his first MLB appearance on August 26. He’s likely to compete for a job in the season-opening rotation as Washington continues their rebuild next year.
- Aaron Ashby returned to a mound for the first time since landing on the injured list three weeks ago, tossing an 18-pitch bullpen session this afternoon (reported by Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). He’s scheduled for another bullpen session over the weekend. The Brewers remain hopeful the southpaw will be able to make it back this season, although he’d work in shorter stints due to the abbreviated ramp-up period. Ashby has started 17 of his 23 appearances this year, but he came out of the bullpen for nine of his 13 outings in 2021. He’s thrived as a reliever in his MLB career, posting a 3.63 ERA with a 36.2% strikeout rate through 34 2/3 innings in that capacity. Ashby has been a bit more erratic when trying to navigate a lineup multiple times as a starter, although he’s still flashed the swing-and-miss and ground-ball combination that made him such a promising pitching prospect. Milwaukee sits two games back of the Padres for the National League’s final Wild Card spot, so they’d surely welcome any contributions they can get from the 24-year-old for the stretch run.
Cade Cavalli Shut Down For Two Weeks Due To Shoulder Inflammation
The Nationals are shutting down right-hander Cade Cavalli for the next two weeks due to shoulder inflammation, tweets Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post. Cavalli will be placed on the 15-day injured list.
At this point, the issue doesn’t seem to be terribly severe. Dougherty relays that Cavalli felt some discomfort in the day after his start and went for an MRI, which showed inflammation but no structural damage. “Everything looks good, except for he has a little bit of inflammation around the capsule,” manager Dave Martinez tells Jessica Camerato of MLB.com. “But the labrum, tendons, the rotator cuff, everything is very, very clean.” Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com relays word from Martinez, who says that they’re not shutting him down for the season because they want him to try to work back to health in the short-term, rather than just focussing on next year’s Spring Training.
The fact that the issue isn’t terribly serious is surely comforting for fans of the club, though the news also has to be at least somewhat deflating. It was just over a year ago that the club kicked off a rebuild by trading away many of their best players, including Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. This year, the club dug themselves even deeper in that hole by trading Juan Soto and Josh Bell. Amid all of that subtraction from the big league roster, one thing for fans to look forward to was the emergence of youngsters, with Cavalli being among the most exciting. Now he’s heading to the IL after just a single big league start and might not even appear again this season. In the long run, Cavalli can hopefully recover and make this minor setback a non-issue.
In the short-term, the club will have to patch over a hole in the rotation. Cory Abbott was optioned when Cavalli was called up and could be a candidate to return. Optioned players normally have to spend at least ten days off the roster before being added back on, though an exception is made when someone is going on the IL. Dougherty reports that Abbott was supposed to throw in Rochester today, the home of Washington’s Triple-A club, but was pulled off.
Nationals Release Maikel Franco
The Nationals have released veteran infielder Maikel Franco, reinstated second baseman Luis Garcia from the injured list, optioned righty Cory Abbott and selected the contract of top pitching prospect Cade Cavalli, per a team announcement. Cavalli’s looming promotion had been announced by the team earlier in the week. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com first noted that Garcia was in the clubhouse and that Franco appeared to be packing up and saying his goodbyes, indicating a move was on the horizon.
Franco, who turns 30 today, has spent the season as Washington’s primary third baseman. The Nats signed the former Phillies top prospect to a minor league deal over the winter, and he broke camp with the team. Franco has gotten 99 starts, with the vast majority of that time coming at his customary position at the hot corner. While he’s been a durable lineup fixture, the right-handed hitter simply hasn’t produced much at the plate. Franco posted a .229/.255/.342 showing across 388 plate appearances, only connecting on nine home runs with a meager 3.1% walk rate.
It’s a second straight well below-average season for Franco, who managed a .210/.253/.355 line with the Orioles last season. Fellow journeyman Ildemaro Vargas, who was selected onto the big league roster at the start of this month, has a far more productive .317/.354/.450 showing in 65 plate appearances. The switch-hitting Vargas has taken hold of the third base job as a result, while Garcia is now in line to pair with top prospect CJ Abrams as the primary middle infield duo. That pushed veteran second baseman Cesar Hernandez to the bench and squeezed Franco off the roster.
A nine-year MLB veteran, Franco finds himself on release waivers. Assuming he goes unclaimed, he’ll hit free agency and be able to explore other opportunities elsewhere. It seems likely he’ll be limited to minor league offers, although he’d technically be eligible for another team’s postseason roster if he signs before the end of this month.
Nationals To Promote Cade Cavalli
The Nationals are calling up top pitching prospect Cade Cavalli for his Major League debut on Friday, per a club announcement. Grant Paulsen of 106.7 FM The Fan first reported Cavalli would be getting the call to the big leagues. The 2020 first-rounder will need to have his contract formally selected to the Major League roster before Friday’s game.
Cavalli, 24, was the No. 22 overall selection in 2020. The Oklahoma native and former Sooner star has enjoyed a solid season in Triple-A Rochester, where he’s notched a 3.71 ERA with a 25.9% strikeout rate, a 9.7% walk rate and a 43.1% grounder rate. Cavalli has gotten more comfortable in Triple-A and gotten stronger as the season wears on; after some rocky outings throughout his first 13 trips to the hill, he’s now rattled off a 1.47 ERA with a 43-to-12 K/BB ratio (29.7 K%, 8.7% BB%) in his past seven starts — a total of 36 1/3 innings.
The 6’4″, 240-pound Cavalli, in addition to his lofty draft status, currently ranks as one of the sport’s top pitching prospects. He checks in at No. 20 on FanGraphs’ most recent prospect rankings and is also featured prominently on the latest leaguewide lists from Baseball Prospectus (No. 29), Baseball America (No. 52) and MLB.com (No. 58).
Cavalli made the Futures Game roster in each of the past two seasons, though he was a late scratch from this year’s game due to a blister issue on his pitching hand. Fans who tuned into the 2021 game saw Cavalli touch 102 mph on the radar gun with a powerful heater that generally draws 70 grades on the 20-80 scale. Command issues, stemming in part from a violent delivery that gives some scouts concerns he’ll ultimately move to the bullpen, have been the big knock on Cavalli. He also works with a slider, curveball and changeup, each drawing praise as anywhere from an above-average to potentially plus pitch. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs writes in his scouting report that while there’s relief risk, “…if things click, Cavalli is going to be a monster.”
For the Nats, the hope is that Cavalli can achieve that top-of-the-rotation ceiling and join left-hander MacKenzie Gore and righty Josiah Gray as the nucleus of the team’s rotation for years to come. Because he’s being called up this late in the season, Cavalli can’t earn a full year of Major League service time and is also well past the point at which Super Two status is attainable. That means he’ll be controllable for six more seasons beyond this one — all the way through 2028 — and won’t be eligible to reach arbitration until after 2025 season. Of course, future demotions back to the minors could push back either of those trajectories.
NL Notes: Kimbrel, Fedde, Cavalli, Nationals, Junis
The Dodgers used Craig Kimbrel for the last inning of today’s 10-3 win over the Marlins, and the reliever delivered a perfect frame to mop things up. While not a save situation for Kimbrel, manager Dave Roberts told J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (Twitter links) and other reporters that Kimbrel and the team have agreed to base the right-hander’s workload going forward not on save chances, but rather on just getting regular outings. This wouldn’t preclude Kimbrel being used in save opportunities, of course, and Roberts said he could still choose to use Kimbrel in consecutive games.
It has been a shaky year for the veteran reliever, as between a subpar walk rate and a lot of hard contact allowed, Kimbrel has only a 4.46 ERA over 42 1/3 innings. A big .388 BABIP is responsible for some of these struggles, but consistency has been hard to come by in Kimbrel’s first season in Los Angeles. It has turned the ninth inning into a question mark for the Dodgers heading into the postseason, and it could be that Kimbrel’s adjusted role could be the team’s way of auditioning some other relievers for the closer’s job as October looms. It is also possible the Dodgers will rotate Kimbrel and many other pitchers into save situations as circumstances dictate, which may concern L.A. fans who have seen late-game breakdowns doom the Dodgers in past postseason trips.
More from around the National League…
- The Nationals rotation will get a jolt this week, as both Erick Fedde and top prospect Cade Cavalli might be in the mix. Fedde is the surer thing, as manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) that Fedde will be activated from the 15-day injured list and start Tuesday’s game with the Mariners. Right shoulder inflammation put Fedde out of action back on July 27, and the right-hander had a 4.95 ERA over 92 2/3 innings and 19 starts for Washington before going on the IL. Fedde is a potential non-tender candidate as he enters his second year of arbitration eligibility, though he’ll have a few more starts to make his case for another contract, plus the Nationals might be open to giving a former first-rounder another chance anyway as the team looks to rebuild. Cory Abbott will be moved to the bullpen to fit Fedde into the rotation.
- Cavalli was the 22nd overall pick of the 2020 draft, and is ranked within the top 60 on updated prospect lists from Baseball America (52nd) and MLB Pipeline (58th). It has been just a few days since Cavalli’s 24th birthday, and the right-hander has a 3.71 ERA, 25.9% strikeout rate, and 9.7% walk rate over 97 Triple-A innings this season. Control is the biggest question facing Cavalli, who otherwise has four plus pitches, highlighted by a 97mph fastball that earned a 70 grade from both BA and Pipeline. The Nationals‘ rotation plans are somewhat unknown due to three off-days in the next eight-day span, but Zuckerman thinks Cavalli might be promoted during the team’s August 26-September 1 homestand.
- X-rays were negative on Jakob Junis‘ left hand after the Giants starter was hit by a line drive in today’s game. Giants manager Gabe Kapler told reporters (including MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado) that Junis will also get a CT scan tomorrow to further check for any damage. The discomfort was severe enough for Junis to be forced out of the game in the sixth inning. Since Junis is a right-handed pitcher and because San Francisco doesn’t play on either Monday or Thursday this week, it seems possible Junis might not need an IL trip or even technically any missed starts, if the off-days just push the rest of the rotation back. Junis has had a solid first year with the Giants, posting a 3.58 ERA over 78 innings despite a hamstring string that cost him over a month of action.
Latest On Reds’ Trade Discussions
The Reds and Nationals are known to have discussed a possible deal around third baseman Eugenio Suarez, and the failure to complete a deal seems to hinge on the Nats’ unwillingness to part with top pitching prospects Jackson Rutledge and Cade Cavalli, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Rutledge and Cavalli were the Nats’ top draft choices in the past two drafts. It’s not a surprise that Washington would hold on tight, as their system isn’t known for tremendous depth, and they traditionally value starting pitching. Besides, ace Max Scherzer will be a free agent after this season, and at some point, the Nats will need to graduate top pitching talent in order to maintain the standard they have set in the rotation. Any deal with the Nats would probably have to center on Carter Kieboom. If the Reds believe in Kieboom’s ability to play shortstop, he would make sense as a starting point for a deal.
The Reds seem more open to the idea of moving Mike Moustakas or Nicholas Castellanos, but neither has generated as much trade interest as Suarez, tweets Heyman. Despite an uninspired 104 wRC+ in 2020, Suarez remains the Reds’ most-compelling bat. A .214 BABIP was down by almost 100 points from his career average, and a shoulder injury might have slowed his production. His 29.0 percent strikeout rate is a touch high, but Suarez still boasts patience (13.0 percent walk rate) and power (.268 isolated power), as well as long-term control on a reasonable contract. The 29-year-old Suarez will make $10.79MM in 2021 before three years at $11.29MM and a $15MM club option in 2025. Relative to Moustakas (three years, $16MM AAV with club option) and Castellanos (three years, $15.3MM AAV with mutual option), Suarez’s deal looks like a bargain, and he’ll be just 33-years-old at the end of the 2024 season.
The most likely place for the Reds to add from outside the organization remains shortstop, as their 2021 starting shortstop doesn’t appear to be on the 40-man roster at present, writes the Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans. The organization clearly does not view Senzel as an option there, and Jose Garcia likely needs more the in the minors after being rushed into action in 2020. That could mean trading for a shortstop, but with so many options still available on the market – Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, Freddy Galvis, Didi Gregorius – free agency remains their likeliest route to add an infielder.
Nationals Open To Moving Carter Kieboom In Trade Talks
As the Nationals continue to explore their offseason trade options, the team is “definitely open” to including former top prospect Carter Kieboom in negotiations, The Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli reports (Twitter links). Right-handed pitching prospects Cade Cavalli and Jackson Rutledge, however, are not available.
Washington went into the 2020 season hoping Kieboom could step in as the new everyday third baseman, after Anthony Rendon left for the Angels in free agency. While nobody expected Kieboom to match Rendon’s All-Star level of production, the Nats surely hoped for more than the .202/.344/.212 slash line Kieboom delivered over 122 plate appearances. The lack of hitting led the Nationals to demote Kieboom to their alternate training site for just shy of two weeks, and his season was also shortened by a wrist injury in the final week of play.
Aside from a respectable OBP, there wasn’t much to like about Kieboom’s first extended taste of Major League action, as he didn’t make much hard contact and next to no power — Kieboom had the lowest slugging percentage of any player in baseball with at least 120 PA. However, Kieboom showed lots of pop in the minors, hitting .287/.378/.469 with 45 homers in 1462 PA in the Washington farm system after being drafted 28th overall in 2016.
Considering this prospect pedigree, Kieboom’s age (23) and the fact that the 2020 season was about the most difficult of possible circumstances for a younger player to acclimate himself to the big leagues, it is certainly very possible that Kieboom can break out in the near future. As such, Ghiroli notes that the Nationals surely aren’t going to “give him away” in any trade, if they were to deal him whatsoever. It’s probably safe to assume most teams also still see Kieboom as a valuable trade chip, so D.C. would only deal Kieboom as the centerpiece of a trade for an established MLB player — perhaps even at third base, to solidify that position.
Cavalli and Rutledge are widely seen as the top two prospects in a Washington farm system that is heavy on pitching, particularly right-handers. The sheer amount of depth makes it possible that the Nationals might be willing to discuss one of those less highly-regarded prospects (say, in the 5-10 range of their top ten list) but it also makes sense that they’re not budging on moving Cavalli or Rutledge, both first-round picks in the last two drafts.
Nationals Notes: Kieboom To Start At Third, Denaburg Out, Cavalli In
Speaking to a handful of DMV-area reporters, Nationals’ manager Davey Martinez said that he expects Carter Kieboom to be the starting third baseman, MASN’s Mark Zuckerman, and Todd Dybas of NBC Sports were among those reporting. It’s a bit of a surprising revelation from Martinez, as last we heard, Kieboom wasn’t even a sure thing to make the Opening Day roster. At the same time, most projections had the 22-year-old making his play for the hot corner by August, surely, so it might be that not much has changed in terms of organizational outlook. More on this and the other goings-on around Nats’ camp…
- One change that might have affected the Nats’ plan for Kieboom, however, was Ryan Zimmerman opting out for the season. Without Zimmerman, there seems to be plenty of at-bats to go around the remaining veteran contingent of Nationals’ infielders. First base should fall to a strict platoon between Howie Kendrick and Eric Thames, while the off-day first baseman is also likely to split time at DH with Asdrubal Cabrera. Starlin Castro, then, would handle second base relatively full-time while occasionally being spelled by either Cabrera or Kendrick. The Nationals tend to let their prospects play full time, so if Kieboom keeps the starting role through Opening Day, he’s likely to get more-or-less the full slate of 60 games to prove he deserves it.
- Updating some numbers for us, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post mentions that the Nationals have about 49-50 guys in camp right now of the 58 currently named to the player pool. That said, the Nats’ are widely expected to add first-round pick Cade Cavalli to their 60-man player pool shortly, per TalkNats. The Nats have a few open spots on their roster now that a number of players have opted out for the season (Ryan Zimmerman, Joe Ross, Welington Castillo).
- As the Cavalli addition presupposes, the Nats have chosen to include most of the organization’s highest-regarded prospects in the 60-man player pool. That group would have included Mason Denaburg, were he not out for the season recovering from offseason surgery, per Stephen G. Mears of TalkNats. The 6’4″ former catcher ranks eighth on the Nats’ top prospect list per Baseball America. He was the Nats’ top draft choice in 2018, though he’s managed just 20 1/3 innings of pro ball since then.
Nationals Agree To Terms With Cade Cavalli, Sammy Infante
The Nationals announced Friday that they’ve officially signed first-round pick Cade Cavalli. The Oklahoma right-hander was the No. 22 overall pick in this year’s truncated draft.
Washington has also agreed to terms with compensation pick Sammy Infante, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter links). He’ll receive $1MM, Jim Callis of MLB.com tweets, which is slightly more than his No. 71 overall slot value of $884,200.
The Athletic’s Keith Law was the most bullish on Cavalli among most prominent pre-draft rankings, listing him as this year’s No. 13 prospect. Cavalli landed 17th at FanGraphs and 22nd (matching his actual draft position) at both Baseball America and MLB.com. ESPN placed him 24th.
A clear consensus first-rounder, the 6’4″, 225-pound righty was a two-way player for part of his college career but will focus on mound work as a pro. Law writes that Cavalli has been up to 97 mph with the fastball and has pair of power breaking pitches to complement that heater — ultimately tabbing him as a potential No. 2 starter should things go well for the 21-year-old.
Infante, a shortstop out of Florida’s Monsignor Edward Pace High School, had been committed to the University of Miami but will forgo college to begin his pro career. He didn’t rate among the top 100 prospects on any draft boards, but did feature among the next hundred names on several. ESPN.com was most bullish, ranking him 122nd. Baseball America opines that Infante stands out for his “nice collection of above-average tools.”