NL East Notes: Luzardo, Ortiz, Johnson, Nationals
Jesus Luzardo was reinstated from the Marlins‘ 15-day injured list today, with right-hander Eli Villalobos optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move. Luzardo struggled to a 6.58 ERA over his first five starts and 26 innings before a mild left flexor strain (initially diagnosed as elbow tightness) sent him to the IL, so the three-week layoff between starts can hopefully set as a refresh of a tough season to date for the 26-year-old. The returns of Luzardo and Braxton Garrett this weekend will help the injury-riddled Marlins rotation, though Edward Cabrera has now also gone down with a shoulder impingement.
Beyond the immediate help that Luzardo will bring to Miami’s pitching staff, today’s start figures to reignite the trade rumors that have swirled around the left-hander for months. If Luzardo recaptures his 2021-22 form, he would be a very hot commodity at the trade deadline, as he is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season. The Luis Arraez trade has already signaled that the Marlins are in sell mode, but while the team pulled the trigger early on that deal, Luzardo’s suitors will want to see a larger sample size of healthy and productive starts before moving what would have to be a very substantial trade package to pry him away from Miami.
Some more from around the NL East…
- Phillies reliever Luis Ortiz is set to restart his throwing program today after he was shut down due to right shoulder inflammation. “We don’t think it’s anything, but we’re just taking it easy on him,” Phils manager Rob Thomson told MLB.com and other media. A sprained ankle in his first game of the season sent Ortiz to the 15-day IL back on March 31, and he made Triple-A rehab appearances on both April 23 and 25 before his new shoulder issue popped up. Ortiz had a 3.32 ERA in 19 relief innings for Philadelphia last season, amidst many shuttles up and down from the majors and Triple-A.
- Braves manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) that Pierce Johnson is “looking really good” as he works his way back from a bout of elbow inflammation. Johnson was placed on the 15-day IL a week ago, but is already doing some low-intensity mound work, and appears to be on pace to miss only the minimum 15 days. Johnson has emerged as a key piece of Atlanta’s bullpen after being acquired by the Rockies at the last trade deadline, and the Braves extended the right-hander on a two-year deal worth $14.25MM in guaranteed money back in October to keep Johnson off the free agent market.
- Nationals fans received positive updates regarding a pair of injured young righties recently. As relayed by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, manager Dave Martinez told reporters that both Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli threw off a mound in their rehab processes yesterday. Gray hit the shelf with a flexor strain just two starts into his 2024 campaign and reportedly looked good in his 35-pitch bullpen session, throwing 32 of the pitches for strikes. Cavalli, meanwhile, threw 45 pitches in 2 2/3 simulated innings as he works his way back from last year’s Tommy John surgery. Gray appears to be closer to a return to action than Cavalli, who Martinez indicated is on track for a return sometime next month. Washington has relied on left-hander Mitchell Parker, who has posted a strong 2.67 ERA in five starts this season, to round out the club’s rotation in Gray’s absence.
NL East Notes: Ozuna, Turnbull, Mets, Senga, Megill, Cavalli
“There’s no way you want to go explore somewhere else when you feel comfortable, when you’ve got your teammates and you’ve got your organization’s love. There’s no doubt in my decision. I don’t want to go anywhere else,” Marcell Ozuna told The Athletic’s David O’Brien about his desire to sign a contract extension with the Braves. Ozuna’s four-year, $65MM deal is up at season’s end, though the Braves hold a $16MM club option for 2025 that looks like a sure bet to be exercised give how well Ozuna is performing at the plate. Coming off a 40-homer campaign in 2023, Ozuna has stayed hot by hitting .344/.419/.677 over his first 105 plate appearances in 2024, leading the National League with nine homers.
The idea of Ozuna remaining in Atlanta over the long term would’ve seemed far-fetched a year ago. The veteran struggled badly over the first two seasons of his contract, and that two-year stint also included an arrest on a DUI charge, and a 20-game suspension under MLB’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy. Since the Braves reportedly never considered parting ways with Ozuna in the wake of these issues or his lack of production on the field, it would stand to reason that the team would be open to some kind of longer-term commitment beyond just the club option year. Some obvious obstacles exist — Ozuna will be 35 in November 2025 and is essentially a DH-only player at this point in his career, plus Atlanta’s payroll is already at team-record heights in both pure dollars and in luxury tax value.
More from the NL East…
- Taijuan Walker is expected to be activated from the 15-day injured list on Sunday to start the Phillies‘ game against the Padres. A shoulder impingement delayed Walker’s 2024 debut, and it also created an opportunity for Spencer Turnbull to open some eyes as the fill-in starter in Philadelphia’s rotation. With an outstanding 1.33 ERA over 27 innings and five starts, Turnbull has certainly pitched well enough to remain in the starting mix, but Rob Thomson told the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Alex Coffey (X link) and other reporters that a decision will be held off on Turnbull’s next step until after Walker throws on Sunday. Turnbull could get a proper start on Tuesday, or be part of a piggyback start with Cristopher Sanchez in Monday’s game. With Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Sanchez, and Turnbull all looking great thus far in the season, Walker’s return gives the Phillies a rare pitching surplus at the moment, and creates a nice problem for the team to navigate.
- In some Mets injury updates, Kodai Senga will throw a live batting practice session on Monday, and Tylor Megill will begin a minor league rehab assignment today with high-A Brooklyn. (The Athletic’s Tim Britton was among those to report the news.) Senga has yet to pitch this season due to a moderate posterior capsule strain suffered during Spring Training, and because of his placement on the 60-day injured list, won’t be eligible to join the Mets until May 27 at the earliest. Megill pitched in one game before a shoulder strain sent him to the 15-day IL. Megill and Senga could each potentially be part of a six-man rotation over the next six weeks, as Britton writes that New York is considering using an extra starter to keep everyone fresh through a busy stretch of the schedule.
- Cade Cavalli is set for a live batting practice session on Monday, his first time facing real hitters since undergoing Tommy John surgery in March 2023. Cavalli updated reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Bobby Blanco) about his rehab progress, as the plan is for the right-hander to start a minor league rehab assignment in the middle of May. Nationals manager Davey Martinez then views Cavalli’s return to the majors for “sometime at the end of June, maybe July.” The 22nd overall pick of the 2020 draft pitched in exactly one MLB game before his career was put on pause by the TJ procedure, and assuming all goes well health-wise, Cavalli should now be in line for his extended stint in a big league rotation.
Nationals Select Derek Law
The Nationals announced today that they have selected the contract of right-hander Derek Law. In a corresponding move, right-hander Cade Cavalli was placed on the 60-day injured list. Cavalli underwent Tommy John surgery just over a year ago and evidently has at least a couple more months of rehab remaining, since he’ll now be ineligible to be activated until late May at the earliest.
Law, 33, is a veteran journeyman who will be joining the sixth team of his career, having previously pitched for the Giants, Blue Jays, Twins, Tigers and Reds. With Cincinnati last year, he tossed 55 innings with a 3.60 earned run average, though less impressive peripherals.
His 18.8% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate and 39.5% ground ball rate were each a bit worse than league averages. His .275 batting average on balls in play and 77.9% strand rate were both on the lucky side, which is why there was a sizeable gap between Law’s ERA and his 4.62 FIP and 4.82 SIERA.
The Reds could have retained Law via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a fairly modest $1.4MM salary. They decided to non-tender Law instead, sending him to free agency. He signed a minors pact with the Nats, one that came with a $1.5MM salary if added to the major league roster. He has tossed 9 1/3 scoreless innings this spring, striking out 12 batters while issuing three walks. That strong showing will get him onto the Nats’ roster and lock in that salary.
The Nationals are in the midst of a rebuild and have given many roster spots to veterans this offseason. Jesse Winker, Eddie Rosario and Matt Barnes had their minor league contracts selected on Sunday. The club had earlier given major league deals to Joey Gallo and Dylan Floro.
The club is surely hoping that those players help the team, both by their own performances and by providing guidance to the younger players. If they are playing especially well, they could perhaps become midseason trade candidates, assuming the Nats aren’t in contention. Washington tried this approach last year with mixed results, as their Jeimer Candelario signing worked out great but the deals for Dominic Smith and Corey Dickerson less so.
Law will join Barnes and Floro as veteran arms in a Washington bullpen that’s fairly light on experience. Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey and Tanner Rainey are the most experienced of the returning players from last year, though each is slated for free agency after 2025 and could wind up on the trade block this summer. There will surely be lots of innings to cover throughout the year and Law will do his part to help out in that department. Even if he sticks with the club all year, he’ll still be shy of six years of service time and could be retained for 2025 via arbitration if the club is interested.
Rizzo: Nationals Unlikely To Make Additional Major League Signings This Offseason
The bulk of the shopping in a quiet Nationals offseason looks to be complete. General manager Mike Rizzo told the team’s beat writers Wednesday the Nats aren’t likely to add any more free agents on guaranteed deals between now and Opening Day (X link via Andrew Golden of the Washington Post). It’s still possible that they’ll add some veterans on minor league deals with spring training invitations.
Rizzo’s comments seemingly close the door on any potential late additions of note to a Nationals club that has been poking around the starting pitching market. “I just couldn’t find that starting pitcher that was going to impact us at this time, for not only the right amount of years but the right salary at this time,” Rizzo said Wednesday (via MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman).
The Nationals have only signed three players to big league deals this offseason — none for more than Joey Gallo‘s $5MM (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker). Beyond Gallo, the Nats signed reliever Dylan Floro and infielder/outfielder Nick Senzel to one-year deals worth $2.3MM and $2MM, respectively. They’ve also added outfielder Jesse Winker, lefty Richard Bleier and first baseman/outfielder Juan Yepez on minor league pacts this winter.
As it stands, the Nationals will deploy a rotation including Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams. That group combined to start all but 19 of Washington’s games in 2023 — Chad Kuhl, Joan Adon and Jackson Rutledge started the others — a season in which the Nationals ranked 25th in the Majors with a 5.02 ERA and 29th in each of FIP (5.30), SIERA (4.95) and K-BB% (9.7%).
The Nats are surely hoping for better performances from young starters like Gore and Gray, both of whom were lauded as top prospects prior to breaking into the big leagues. Both hurlers posted respectable ERAs with middling grades from fielding-independent metrics, in no small part due to sub-par walk rates and (in Gore’s case especially) struggles with the long ball. Gore is the only Nationals starter who posted an above-average strikeout rate in 2023 (26%). Corbin and Williams are the only two who had better-than-average walk rates (7.2% and 8%, respectively).
Washington also has several more arms on the rise, with the aforementioned Rutledge, lefty DJ Herz and right-hander Cade Cavalli among them. Cavalli would likely have been in the Nats’ rotation in 2023 were it not for a spring elbow injury that led to Tommy John surgery.
Rizzo didn’t provide much of an update on Cavalli beyond the fact that his rehab is progressing nicely. An early-summer return seems like a best-case scenario for the hard-throwing 25-year-old, and Zuckerman indeed notes that he’s shooting to be MLB-ready sometime in June.
Rutledge tossed 20 innings in last year’s debut after delivering solid run-prevention numbers between Double-A and Triple-A — albeit with sub-par command. Herz, acquired from the Cubs in exchange for Jeimer Candelario, posted a 3.43 ERA in 22 Double-A starts last year, fanning an impressive 32.4% of his opponents. He too struggled with command issues, however, walking opponents at a grim 13.9% clip.
On the bullpen front, the Nats could be down at least one candidate early in the season. Skipper Davey Martinez said Wednesday that righty Mason Thompson will be shut down for the next two weeks before being reevaluated for an elbow injury (X link via Golden). Martinez conceded that the team is “a little concerned” about the issue but declined to go into further details.
Thompson, 26 next week, has spent the majority of the past three seasons with the Nationals and pitched 100 1/3 innings of 4.57 ERA ball with a 17.8% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 50.6% ground-ball rate.
Nationals Designate Matt Cronin For Assignment
The Nationals announced today that they have activated right-handers Stephen Strasburg and Cade Cavalli, catcher Riley Adams, and outfielders Stone Garrett and Victor Robles from the 60-day injured list. In a corresponding move, left-hander Matt Cronin was designated for assignment. The club’s 40-man roster stands at 40. The IL activations were required by today, as players cannot be on the 60-day IL during the offseason.
Cronin, 26, was the club’s fourth-round selection in the 2019 draft. From 2019-22, the left-hander put up solid numbers while advancing from Single-A all the way to Triple-A, capped off by a strong 2022 season where Cronin posted a 2.42 ERA with a 26.9% strikeout rate in 52 innings of work. That sort of dominance out of the bullpen figured to make Cronin an attractive potential bullpen piece for the rebuilding Nationals headed into 2023, particularly after the Nationals added him to the 40-man roster this past offseason in order to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.
Unfortunately, that’s not how things turned out this year. Cronin dealt with pain in his shoulder throughout the year that limited him to just 14 1/3 innings of work during which he struggled to a 5.02 ERA. Back in August, it was revealed that the issue causing the pain was a herniated disc in his back. Cronin underwent surgery to repair the issue and missed the remainder of the 2023 campaign. It’s not clear when Cronin is expected to be healthy enough to return to the mound at this point. Given Cronin’s youth (he only turned 26 back in September) combined with his previous success and status as one of the Nationals’ top 20 prospects (per Baseball America) entering this year, it would hardly be a surprise if a rival club with space on their 40-man roster decided to claim Cronin in the coming days, particularly if he figures to be able to return to the mound in 2024.
Nationals Select Four Players
The Nationals have announced their Opening Day roster, revealing within that they’ve selected the contracts of four non-roster invitees to spring training: righty Chad Kuhl, lefty Anthony Banda, infielder Michael Chavis and right-hander Hobie Harris. In order to make room on the roster, the Nats placed right-handers Cade Cavalli, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Rainey and Victor Arano on the 60-day injured list. Infielder Carter Kieboom and catcher Israel Pineda were placed on the 10-day IL with a right shoulder impingement and fractured finger, respectively.
Kuhl was widely expected to claim a spot in the rotation following the unfortunate news that Cavalli, Washington’s top pitching prospect, would miss the upcoming season due to Tommy John surgery. The veteran Kuhl, 30, tossed 17 2/3 innings this spring, allowing 10 runs on 18 hits and seven walks with 15 strikeouts along the way.
Kuhl spent the 2022 season in Colorado, getting out to a strong three-month start that he capped off with a shutout of the Dodgers at Coors Field. That gem dropped his ERA to 3.49, but Kuhl was clobbered for 29 runs in 25 2/3 innings over his next six starts before a hip strain sent him to the injured list. He was hit hard upon returning three weeks later, and the Rox put him back on the injured list with what proved to be a season-ending triceps strain. Clearly not pitching at 100% down the stretch, Kuhl was shelled for 57 runs in his final 59 2/3 innings, ballooning his ERA to 5.72. Prior to that season, he tossed 439 2/3 innings over several seasons in Pittsburgh, logging a much more respectable 4.44 ERA.
Banda, 29, once ranked as one of the sport’s top pitching prospects but hasn’t yet established himself as a viable big leaguer in parts of six MLB campaigns. He’s had some brief success with the 2018 Rays and 2021 Pirates, but overall the journeyman southpaw carries a 5.64 ERA in 111 2/3 Major League innings. He yielded seven runs on seven hits and five walks in 11 spring innings. Despite that unsightly 5.64 ERA, Banda likely impressed the Nats by striking out 14 of 46 batters (30.4%). He’ll open the season as the lone lefty in manager Dave Martinez‘s bullpen.
The 27-year-old Chavis was the Red Sox’ first-round pick in 2014 and, like Banda, once ranked among the game’s top 100 farmhands. He had an encouraging rookie season, batting .254/.322/.444 with 18 home runs in just 382 plate appearances, but in 708 MLB plate appearances since that time he’s mustered only a .229/.263/.388 output with a concerning 30.8% strikeout rate. He’s been primarily a first baseman, but Chavis has experience at second base, third base and in the outfield corners. He’ll be a righty bat off Martinez’s bench.
Harris’ selection to the roster was announced earlier in the week by his agent, Matt Gaeta. It caps an eight-year minor league grind for the former Yankees 31st-rounder, who held opponents to one run on three hits and two walks with seven strikeouts in 10 innings this spring. Harris spent the 2022 season with the Brewers’ Triple-A club, where he pitched to a 2.04 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate. He’s likely ticketed for a middle-relief role early in the year.
None of the 60-day IL placements come as a major surprise. Cavalli’s Tommy John surgery was announced earlier in camp, as was Strasburg’s setback in his recovery from thoracic outlet surgery. A timetable for the 2019 World Series MVP remains unclear. Rainey had Tommy John surgery last August, so he was never going to be an option until late in the season, at best. Arano is the only mild surprise of the bunch, but the Nats announced midway through the month that he was dealing with a shoulder impingement and would be shut down for at least 10 days. The Nats are now classifying the injury as a strain, and no timetable for his return has been provided.
Cade Cavalli To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo announced today in a press release that right-hander Cade Cavalli has a grade 3 UCL sprain and will require Tommy John surgery, meaning Cavalli will miss the entire 2023 season.
Cavalli, 24, figured to be a member of the Nationals starting rotation this year after making his big league debut in a single start last August before being sidelined with shoulder inflammation. While he struggled mightily in that start (seven earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings), Cavalli was among not only Washington’s top prospects, but among the best prospects in the game, with most services considering him a top 60 prospect in the sport. Instead of joining fellow youngsters Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore as they make their cases as rotation arms of the future for the rebuilding Nationals, Cavalli will spend the entire 2023 season rehabbing and likely not return to the mound until sometime during the 2024 season.
Cavalli rocketed through the minor leagues in his first professional season in 2021, dominating in High-A to the tune of a 1.77 ERA for 40 2/3 innings before moving up to Double-A, where he continued to excel with a 2.79 ERA in 58 innings before hitting a wall following a promotion to Triple-A. At the Triple-A level in 2022, Cavalli was torched to the tune of a 7.30 ERA in 24 2/3 innings. Though a .397 BABIP indicated some bad luck, his 4.54 FIP still indicating pronounced struggles relative to his dominance of lower levels of the minors.
In 2022, Cavalli returned to Triple-A and looked more like himself, hurling 97 innings with a 3.71 ERA and 3.25 FIP. Those numbers came with a 25.9% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate, and just three home runs allowed. Cavalli grew more impressive as the season wore on, with a sterling 1.47 ERA across seven minor league starts in July and August ahead of his big league call-up at the end of the month.
With Cavalli shelved for 2023, the Nationals seem likely to rely on either non-roster invitee Chad Kuhl to round out their Opening Day rotation. Kuhl, 30, has been a below average starter for his career, posting a 4.74 ERA (91 ERA+) in 576 2/3 innings of work with the Pirates and Rockies. That being said, he provides a steady veteran presence at the back of a rotation that’s rather young outside of Patrick Corbin. If the Nationals wish to have other arms still in camp compete with Kuhl for the fifth rotation spot, there are a couple of options remaining. Wily Peralta could be stretched out in the final weeks of Spring Training, as he has ample starting experience despite being used in short relief this spring, and Paolo Espino made 19 starts for the Nationals last year, pitching to a 4.84 ERA in 113 1/3 innings.
Should Kuhl begin the year in the rotation, that leaves youngster Joan Adon, who was recently cut from big league camp by the Nationals, as the likely top depth option. Adon made 14 starts for the Nationals last year, though he pitched to a disastrous 7.10 ERA (55 ERA+) in his 64 2/3 innings of work. Another option would be right-hander Cory Abbott, who was cut along with Adon but pitched 48 innings for the Nationals last year in a swing role that saw him start nine games.
Manager Davey Martinez has indicated he’s comfortable with the club’s existing rotation depth, even without Cavalli. That said, in the event the Nationals wish to look for additional rotation depth following Cavalli’s injury, the pickings are fairly slim on the free agent market at this point, with the likes of Chris Archer, Michael Pineda, and former National Anibal Sanchez among the remaining options.
Latest On Nationals’ Rotation
The Nationals are holding their breath after top prospect Cade Cavalli exited yesterday’s spring start with an elbow issue. He’s undergoing an MRI today, and while there’s no update on his status as of yet, manager Dave Martinez indicated to the Nationals beat this morning that non-roster invitee Chad Kuhl could get the first look in the rotation if the 24-year-old Cavalli is sidelined (Twitter link via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com).
The veteran Kuhl, 30, has followed up a rough second half in 2022 with a rough showing so far in Grapefruit League play. Through four appearances, he’s pitched 7 1/3 innings and been tagged for seven runs on nine hits (two homers) and four walks with just four strikeouts. Kuhl got out to a strong three-month start with the Rockies last season, capping off that impressive stretch with a shutout of the Dodgers at Coors Field on June 27 — a complete-game gem that dropped his season ERA to 3.49.
Over his next six starts, Kuhl was tagged for 29 earned runs in 25 2/3 innings before hitting the injured list with a hip strain. He returned a bit more than three weeks later and was hit hard through the end of September, when the Rox put him back on the shelf with a triceps strain that ended his season. After that strong start to his 2022 season, he wound up yielding 57 runs in 59 2/3 frames. That nightmarish stretch sent Kuhl’s season ERA soaring to 5.72, although in 439 2/3 prior innings with the Pirates, he’d pitched to a much more respectable 4.44 ERA.
Kuhl isn’t guaranteed anything at the moment after signing a minor league deal with a non-roster invitation to spring training, so the Nats don’t have to formally commit to him just yet. While one might think them to be a candidate to explore the trade market or remnants of free agency for some rotation support, Martinez pushed back on that notion, suggesting he’s comfortable with depth options beyond Kuhl (Twitter link via Andrew Golden of the Washington Post). That’s a group that includes 40-man righties Paolo Espino, Jake Irvin, Joan Adon and Cory Abbott. Non-roster veteran Wily Peralta also has plenty of starting experience in the big leagues, but he’s been working in short stints so far this spring. Both Abbott and Irvin were optioned to Triple-A yesterday, but either could conceivably still factor into the rotation early in the season.
As for the 36-year-old Espino and 24-year-old Adon, both logged significant innings with the Nats in 2022. Both also struggled. Espino tallied 113 1/3 innings between the bullpen and the rotation, working to a 4.84 ERA with a pristine 4.9% walk rate but a well below-average 18.9% strikeout rate and a bloated 1.91 HR/9 mark. He pitched to a 2.12 ERA in 29 1/3 innings as a reliever but was hammered for a 5.81 ERA when working as a starter. Adon made 14 starts as a rookie last year but walked 12.6% of his opponents against a 17.7% strikeout rate, finishing the season with a grisly 7.10 ERA.
As is often the case with clubs in the early stages of a rebuild, the rotation outlook is shaky on the whole. Stephen Strasburg is out indefinitely after a setback in his return from thoracic outlet surgery. Patrick Corbin, who has a 6.05 ERA over the past two seasons, still has two years remaining on his six-year contract. The Nats signed veteran Trevor Williams to a two-year pact in hopes that he could join Corbin and youngsters Cavalli, Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore in the rotation, with the latter trio providing a potential glimpse into the organization’s future.
The extent of Cavalli’s injury will determine the next steps for the group. Even if he avoids any type of absence at all, it’s telling that Martinez all but indicated Kuhl as the next man up and downplayed the idea of acquiring any external options for the time being.
Cade Cavalli To Undergo MRI On Throwing Elbow
Nationals right-hander Cade Cavalli departed today’s game after a visit from the trainer, appearing to shake his throwing arm in discomfort. After the game, manager Dave Martinez told reporters that Cavalli felt “something behind his throwing elbow” and will get an MRI tomorrow, as relayed by Andrew Golden of The Washington Post.
Cavalli, 24, was the club’s first round draft pick in 2020 and quickly rose up prospect rankings. In 2021, he tossed 123 1/3 innings across three different levels with a 3.36 ERA. He struck out an excellent 33.5% of batters faced, though with a concerning 11.5% walk rate. Based on that strong campaign, Baseball America ranked him the #27 prospect in the league around this time one year ago.
Last year, Cavalli made 20 Triple-A starts with a 3.71 ERA, striking out 25.9% of batters faced while walking 9.7% of them. He was able to make his major league debut in August, tossing 4 1/3 innings in his first outing, but shoulder inflammation sent him to the injured list and ended his season.
The Nats are deep into a rebuild at the moment, having traded away most of their established big leaguers for prospects. The 2023 season is lined up to be one dedicated to evaluating many of those younger players, with Cavalli among them. With Stephen Strasburg seemingly not a factor until further notice, the rotation is going to have a couple of veterans in Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams. That leaves three spots open for the club to get long looks at pitchers like Cavalli, MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray.
At this point, it’s unclear what’s next for Cavalli, but the fact that the issue surrounds his pitching elbow is certainly somewhat worrisome. Though the club isn’t expecting to be in a playoff race this year, it would still be unfortunate if an injury absence delivered a blow to his continued development. If he does have to miss some time, a rotation spot could open up for someone like Paolo Espino, Joan Adon or Cory Abbott, with Martinez also mentioning Jake Irvin as an option. Irvin is on the 40-man roster but has yet to pitch above Double-A. If the club decides it needs to bring in a veteran to soak up some innings, the free agent market still features names like Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy and Michael Pineda.
Big Hype Prospects: Brennan, Cavalli, Malloy, O’Hoppe, Capel
This week on Big Hype Prospects, I play it fast and loose with “big hype” in order to focus on some Spring Training battles.
Five BHPs In The News
Will Brennan, 25, OF, CLE (MLB)
(AAA) 433 PA, 9 HR, 15 SB, .316/.367/.471
A favorite of mine and my main contact with Baseball America, Brennan is in a roster battle with Oscar Gonzalez and Myles Straw this spring. Between average discipline and a strong feel for contact, he’s the Guardians latest candidate to walk more than he strikes out. The left-handed hitter looks like a future doubles machine even if his home run output is a tad underwhelming. His defense is solid in the corners and passable in center. With Straw on the roster and a fly ball-oriented pitching staff, he’s not ideal for center field. The lack of home run potential is an odd look in an outfield corner, yet his feel for hard contact implies a three- or four-win player in a similar mold to teammate Steven Kwan. After Gonzalez shatter expectations last season, it will be interesting to see how the Guardians distribute playing time.
Cade Cavalli, 24, SP, WSH (MLB)
(AAA) 97 IP, 9.65 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 3.71 ERA
Cavalli made his debut last fall and struggled in his only appearance. He flashed his impressive repertoire of four above average offerings, but his below average command was also on display. This is a profile that tends to experience success in the Majors after a sometimes lengthy adjustment period. The Nationals will be looking to build him up after throwing only 101.1 total innings last season. He’s expected to break camp with the club. Don’t be surprised if they take opportunities to give him extra rest or restrict his innings per start. The plan should look similar to the usage of Josiah Gray last season. He threw 148.2 innings across 28 starts. As a stuff-over-command starter, he has some of the same markers as Dylan Cease.
Justyn-Henry Malloy, 23, 3B, DET (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 591 PA, 17 HR, 5 SB, .289/.408/.454
After lighting up three levels in 2022, the Braves included Malloy in the Joe Jimenez trade. Atlanta’s recent track record with prospect trades is rather incredible. For the most part, they’ve kept the winners and dealt away the laggards. Malloy’s inclusion in a trade for a reliever with a checkered past could be viewed as a negative mark. I polled two scouting contacts and received different takes. One doesn’t believe Malloy impacts the ball enough to be a high-probability regular. The other is more optimistic about the plate discipline carrying the profile. Malloy walked in 16.4 percent of plate appearances last season while keeping his swinging strike rate below 10 percent. He has an extreme pulled contact approach with a roughly balanced 20/40/40 blend of liners/grounders/flies. Malloy resembles a Max Muncy starter kit – just keep in mind Muncy finally broke out in his age 27 season. There’s no guarantee Malloy finds the barreled and hard contact rates that drive Muncy’s success. On the other hand, he has a decent shot to play his way onto the roster later this season.
Logan O’Hoppe, 23, C, LAA (MLB)
(AA) 447 PA, 26 HR, 7 SB, .283/.416/.544
Acquired in the Brandon Marsh trade, O’Hoppe is competing with Max Stassi and out-of-options Matt Thaiss for the Angels catching job. Aside from a brief 16 plate appearance debut, O’Hoppe spent all of last season in Double-A. This spring, he has neither thrived nor embarrassed himself to this point. His 2022 breakout seemed predicated on a surge of plate discipline. That he further improved upon joining the Angels affiliate, including a .306/.473/.673 line in 131 plate appearances, is a positive sign. Assuming the club avoids injury, it could be tempting to give O’Hoppe further seasoning in Triple-A. There seemingly isn’t room for all three of Stassi, Thaiss, and O’Hoppe on the roster. While he’s their catcher of the future, clinging to Thaiss in the short-term makes some sense.
Conner Capel, 25, OF, OAK (MLB)
(AAA) 409 PA, 20 HR, 21 SB, .264/.364/.422
A favorite of mine to earn an extended look at some point this season, Capel has already outlasted JJ Bleday this spring. Capel is performing well following a successful 2022 split between St. Louis and Oakland. There’s every chance Capel is the best outfielder in camp at this moment. He’s been inconsistent throughout his minor league assent, at times showing discipline or over-aggression, a feel for contact or a hefty whiff rate, and a power- or speed-based profile. Given his long and winding journey, it’s hard to pin down exactly who he’ll become in the future. That he’s experimented with so many modes of play suggests he’s highly adaptable, a trait which does well to predict Major League success. While other franchises would view Capel as a capable backup, the Athletics should have starting opportunities available throughout the season.
Three More
Ji-Hwan Bae, PIT (23): In the mix for the Pirates starting second base job, Bae is off to a slow start this spring. So too is his competition. When Bae is on, he shows an above average eye with feel for contact. While he doesn’t produce much power, he should reach base enough to disrupt pitchers with his speed.
Jo Adell, LAA (23): Adell is expected to begin the season in Triple-A in deference to the Angels outfield veterans. That will trigger his final minor league option. It’s his last chance for regular playing time before playing waiver roulette. Adell can still put a charge in the ball, but it does seem like he would benefit from joining a non-contender willing to set him loose without restriction. His spring stats to date don’t suggest he’ll upset Taylor Ward or Hunter Renfroe for playing time.
Yainer Diaz, HOU (24): An aggressive free-swinger with thump, Diaz draws half-hearted comps to Salvador Perez. In the minors, he’s shown a capacity for making high-quality contact despite an expansive approach. He appears to be susceptible to breaking balls. Diaz is making a bid to join the Astros as their backup catcher – one who could offer more thump than defense-first Martin Maldonado.