Chris Archer

Cafardo’s Latest: Yanks, Rays, BoSox, Dodgers

By Connor Byrne | July 3, 2016 at 8:36am CDT

Surprisingly, Yankees left-hander CC Sabathia has revived his career to the point that he might actually have value in a trade, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The soon-to-be 36-year-old has bounced back from multiple underwhelming seasons in a row to post an excellent 3.17 ERA in 76 2/3 innings in 2016, through his strikeout and walk ratios per nine innings (7.16 and 3.52) are each below average and he’s on a $25MM salary through 2017. In addition to Sabathia, hot-hitting 39-year-old right fielder/designated hitter Carlos Beltran, left fielder Brett Gardner, catcher Brian McCann, third baseman Chase Headley, and starters Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi are Yankees who could have value around the deadline (not to mention their much-ballyhooed relievers, of course). The only member of that group who’s set to become a free agent at season’s end is Beltran. As Cafardo points out, it’s currently up in the air whether the playoff hopeful Yankees would move any of these players, though he wonders if clinging to postseason dreams is the right course for the 39-41 club.

More inside stuff from Cafardo:

Led by former Rays general manager and current president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers are in pursuit of Tampa Bay right-hander Chris Archer. The Rays aren’t planning on moving the 27-year-old as of now, though, which backs up FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal’s report from Saturday.
The presence of senior vice president of baseball operations Frank Wren, formerly the Braves’ GM, could lead the Red Sox to go after Atlanta right-hander Julio Teheran. Wren – who’s high on Teheran – is Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski’s right-hand man, Cafardo notes, and could push him toward putting together a package for the 25-year-old.
If they’re unable to swing a deal for Teheran, the Red Sox might turn their attention to Rays southpaw Matt Moore – in whom they’re interested. Moore, who has three more years of team control left via club options, also intrigues the Astros, Dodgers, Orioles, Royals, Yankees and previously reported Rangers.
With the possible exception of right-handed reliever Zach McAllister, the Indians aren’t going to give up pitching to augment their offense. Further, the organization has a reputation for keeping its payroll low and avoiding big-money acquisitions, which could take it out of the running to pick up a well-compensated trade chip. Athletics third baseman Danny Valencia, who’s on an affordable $3.15MM salary this season and has another trip through arbitration scheduled, is a potential target for Cleveland.
Hard-throwing Diamondbacks lefty Robbie Ray, who’s eighth in the majors in K/9 (10.42), is drawing interest from teams looking for starters. The 24-year-old has thrown 214 innings of 4.00 ERA ball dating to 2015 and won’t even become eligible for arbitration until after 2017, meaning he has four full seasons of club control remaining.
The Marlins are aggressively pursuing pitching, as evidenced already by their acquisition of reliever Fernando Rodney and reported interest in starters Drew Pomeranz and Jake Odorizzi. However, the Fish might not have the prospects to land a significant arm for their rotation, writes Cafardo.
Blue Jays scouts are keeping a close watch over the Astros’ system, so the two AL playoff contenders could have some kind of deal in the works.

Rays Considering Dealing Starting Pitchers

By Connor Byrne | July 2, 2016 at 8:54pm CDT

The expectation is that this summer’s trade market will be largely devoid of quality starting pitchers, but last-place Tampa Bay could change that. The Rays, who are 33-47 and 10 games out of a Wild Card position, are discussing putting some of their young starters on the block well in advance of the Aug. 1 trade deadline, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links). One member of the group unlikely to go anywhere is underachieving right-hander Chris Archer, whose team-friendly contract might be too difficult for the Rays to part with, per Rosenthal.

With Archer probably staying in a Rays uniform and top prospect Blake Snell seemingly a poor bet to go anywhere, that leaves Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore as rotation members Tampa Bay could shop. Each is likely attainable if the right offer comes along, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo reported Saturday afternoon.

Odorizzi, who has backed up a respectable ERA (3.91) with solid strikeout and walk ratios per nine innings (8.59 and 2.96, respectively) across 94 1/3 frames this year, has already drawn interest from the Marlins. In 468 2/3 big league innings dating back to 2012, Odorizzi has held his own – 3.80 ERA, 8.45 K/9, 2.84 BB/9 and a 10 percent infield fly rate – though his 34.5 percent grounder rate (39.2 percent this year) is well below average. The 26-year-old right-hander is playing this season on an ultra-cheap $520,700 salary and has three years of arbitration eligibility remaining.

Smyly, 27, has run up a sky-high strikeout rate for the second straight year (10.09), improved his walk rate from 2.7 to 2.24, and continued generating a large amount of infield pop-ups (13.5 percent). Nonetheless, the southpaw’s run prevention has taken a significant hit. Through his first 96 1/3 innings this season, Smyly has recorded a 5.33 ERA – which is more than two runs worse than the excellent 3.11 mark he put in 66 2/3 frames last year.

Notably, Smyly missed a large portion of 2015 with a torn labrum and opted against season-ending surgery in favor of rehabilitation through rest, which proved successful then. However, research done for MLBTR during the offseason by Bradley Woodrum and Tim Dierkes showed that Smyly remains at relatively high risk of eventually needing Tommy John surgery. That could hurt his value, then, even though he logged a 3.45 ERA, 8.51 K/9 and 2.54 BB/9 in 55 starts with the Tigers and Rays from 2012-15 and is on a palatable salary ($3.75MM) with two more arbitration trips on the docket.

Moore has mimicked Smyly in having trouble preventing runs (4.67 ERA ) despite amassing strikeouts (8.61 per nine) and limiting walks (2.62), though he’s coming off a terrific June in which he threw 38 2/3 frames of 3.72 ERA ball. The former top prospect was an eminently useful starter from 2012-13 before injury issues – including April 2014 Tommy John surgery – kept him sidelined for the vast majority of the previous two campaigns. Moore, who’s making $5MM this year, has three affordable club options of $7MM, $9MM and $10MM left on his deal before he’ll become a free agent at the end of the 2019 season. The Rangers are reportedly among the teams interested in acquiring the 27-year-old.

Given the youth and team control Odorizzi, Smyly and Moore offer, their presences on the block could hugely impact the trade deadline. Several playoff contenders (other than the aforementioned Marlins and Rangers) are likely to be on the hunt for starters, which should put each member of the trio in demand.

AL East Notes: Buchholz, Floyd, Rays, Archer

By Mark Polishuk | June 26, 2016 at 3:10pm CDT

Here’s the latest from around the AL East…

Clay Buchholz is still getting attention from rival scouts, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports, as the feeling is that the Red Sox could make Buchholz available in a trade. This is reliant on Buchholz regaining his old form in the rotation, of course, and if the right-hander does indeed look like the Buchholz of old, Boston could then simply keep him to reinforce the shaky back end of its rotation.
From that same item, Cafardo also opines that the Red Sox need to improve their bench depth by adding a veteran player or two. An outfielder would be ideal, as that would allow Brock Holt to return to his ideal superutility role.
The Blue Jays announced that righty Gavin Floyd has been placed on the 15-day DL with shoulder tightness. Floyd threw just four pitches in an appearance on Saturday before taking himself out of the game. An arm injury of any sort is ominous for Floyd, who has missed extensive time in recent years thanks to a Tommy John surgery and two elbow fractures. Floyd has had some problems with the long ball but has otherwise pitched pretty well in a relief role for Toronto this season, posting a 4.06 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 3.75 K/BB over 31 innings.
The Rays are on a 10-game losing streak and have sunk into last place in the AL East. Not only are they looking like probable deadline sellers, but CBS Sports’ Mike Axisa wonders if it’s time for Tampa to undergo a fuller rebuild with this iteration of the roster. The Rays have enough talent on their roster that they could again pursue their usual tactic of “constant retooling” by only moving a few notable players, though Axisa opines that the Rays’ belief in their core group could be shaken given how they’re approaching a third straight losing season.
Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore are sure to be targeted by other teams approaching the Rays about pitching, but Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wonders if the Rays would consider moving Chris Archer. The ace hasn’t pitched well since midway through last season (a 4.59 ERA over his last 32 starts) but between his track record and his inexpensive contract, he would surely net a big return if Tampa made him available.

Quick Hits: Pirates, Lucroy, Archer, Red Sox, Dodgers

By Connor Byrne | April 10, 2016 at 10:29pm CDT

The Pirates surrendered the third-fewest runs in baseball last year, when center fielder Andrew McCutchen and left fielder Starling Marte lined up deeper than most at their respective positions, but the data-driven Bucs are experimenting with a shallower outfield alignment this season in hopes of allowing even less scoring. “Reviewing the numbers last year, there was so much collateral damage done in front of us last year — balls that fell in, extra bases that were taken by guys trying to get to balls,” manager Clint Hurdle said (via Adam Berry of MLB.com). “It was glaringly apparent that we could make an adjustment on our end, especially with the athleticism we have with our outfielders, and change the dynamic of what’s gone on as far as run prevention goes,” he continued. Both McCutchen and Marte have taken to the changes, according to Hurdle. “You give them the numbers, you show them the charts, you show them where damage is done or not done. They’re really good about understanding and trusting.”

Cafardo’s Latest: Analytics, Archer, Soler, Lucroy, Byrd

By Mark Polishuk | February 27, 2016 at 2:45pm CDT

John Henry’s recent comments about how the Red Sox have “perhaps overly relied on numbers” in recent years and became too focused on analytics drew quite a bit of reaction from around baseball, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo writes. MLB Network’s Brian Kenny believes “the enemy of the Red Sox is impatience, not analytics,” noting that properly analyzing the numbers could’ve told Boston that Jackie Bradley or Rusney Castillo wouldn’t be stars overnight, or that Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval were risky signings. On the other hand, some scouts praised the Sox for their apparent turn to traditional evaluation over sabermetrics. The Red Sox have been at the forefront of the analytics movement over the last 15 years, so if they succeed in this new direction, Cafardo wonders if other teams could follow suit. Here’s more from Cafardo’s latest column…

Cafardo points to one notable victory for scouting over analytics from 2011, when the Rays’ then-top scout convinced Andrew Friedman to obtain Chris Archer as part of the eight-player blockbuster that sent Matt Garza to the Cubs. The scout was sold on Archer, while Friedman’s analytics evaluation were pointing him towards righty Chris Carpenter, who ended up pitching only 15 2/3 innings at the MLB level.
There’s still “a lot of interest” in Jorge Soler on the trade market, which is an option for the Cubs as they sort out their crowded outfield. With Dexter Fowler rather unexpectedly returning to Chicago, the Cubs have Jason Heyward playing every day in right (or sometimes center) and then Fowler, Soler, Kyle Schwarber and possibly minor league signee Shane Victorino all juggling for playing time, plus Ben Zobrist and Javier Baez also capable of playing left.
The Brewers are still considering a Jonathan Lucroy trade, as “there’s still buzz in the scouting community” that a deal could come in Spring Training. Lucroy would have to prove himself healthy in the wake of a 2015 season shortened by a concussion and a fractured toe. If he looks good in Cactus League action, that could be enough for another team to pull the trigger on a deal.
It’s been a quiet offseason for Marlon Byrd rumors, as Cafardo notes that the veteran outfielder “isn’t getting much love on the market.” Interest in Byrd could pick up as teams sort through their roster options, however, and Cafardo lists the Angels, Blue Jays and Orioles as speculative fits. Byrd had 24 homers and an .847 OPS as recently as the 2013 season, but while he’s still managed to hit for power (48 homers) over the last two years, the 38-year-old’s batting average and OBP have fallen off considerably.

NL West Notes: Rockies, Cueto, Dodgers

By charliewilmoth | December 19, 2015 at 3:24pm CDT

The Rockies have made a few small moves this offseason, but they haven’t yet addressed their rotation, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes. It’s unclear where the Rockies will go from here, Saunders writes — a deal with the Indians might have made at least a bit of sense, although, via ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider-only), the Indians don’t appear to see any urgent need to deal Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar. A trade with the Rays might be a possibility, but the Rays have already been connected to a number of other teams (including, today, the Cardinals). And as was reported yesterday, the Rockies weren’t able to get Kevin Gausman from the Orioles in return for Carlos Gonzalez. Here’s more from the NL West.

Giants GM Bobby Evans says his team’s MRI of Johnny Cueto’s elbow “looked great,” Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area tweets. Cueto had a flexor strain last season, but it appears to be healed. It sounds, then, like the Cueto’s physical exam reassured the Giants that their $130MM commitment to him was the right move.
The Dodgers’ end of the three-way Todd Frazier trade (in which they received youngsters Frankie Montas, Micah Johnson and Trayce Thompson) added talent to the organization, but their return also initially appeared a bit puzzling given that they presumably plan to compete in 2016. The deal might, however, be part of a broader plan to add talent that they can use to acquire veterans, Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles writes. That could mean they trade for a young starter like Jose Fernandez or Sonny Gray. As Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times recently tweeted, top Dodgers exec Andrew Friedman answered affirmatively when asked if the Frazier deal made him feel better about dealing prospects. “Obviously, we’re having a lot of conversations that involve us potentially trading some prospects in different-type scenarios,” says Friedman. “This wasn’t necessarily directed at that, but it’s connected in the same way every move we make has some connection. Expanding our talent base is helpful on multiple fronts.”
Dave Cameron of Fangraphs , meanwhile, suggests a package that the Dodgers could use to land Chris Archer of the Rays. Such a deal could conceivably be based around young Dodgers infielder Corey Seager, with the deal also potentially including someone like Rays reliever Jake McGee. Cameron notes that the Dodgers would be reluctant to part with Seager, but, of course, the Rays would be reluctant to part with Archer as well, and the two teams have plenty to offer one another.

Rays, Rockies Have Discussed SP/OF Swap

By Zachary Links | December 17, 2015 at 12:01pm CDT

The Rockies have spoken with the Rays about a trade that would send outfield help to Tampa in exchange for starting pitching, sources tell Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). Tampa Bay of course, has a pitching surplus to work with and the Rockies have been listening on their trio of outfielders. However, Rosenthal notes, the Rays already have Kevin Kiermaier, Steven Souza, Desmond Jennings, and Brandon Guyer in-house, so they’re more likely to seek prospects than major league-ready outfielders in exchange for their arms.

Carlos Gonzalez carries the highest asking price of the Rockies’ outfielders, but Charlie Blackmon and Corey Dickerson are cheaper and have greater control rights. In particular, Dickerson has put up some huge offensive numbers and won’t even hit arbitration until next year. While he missed time last year with plantar fasciitis and fractured ribs, he still looks to be a highly intriguing asset. Gonzalez has two years and $34MM remaining on his contract. Blackmon, by comparison, is projected to earn just $4.5MM in his first of three arbitration seasons and is coming off a solid 2.1 WAR season (.287/.347/.450 slash).

The Rays are open to moving pitchers, but it doesn’t sound like we should expect to see a Chris Archer trade. Tampa Bay considers Archer “pretty close” to untouchable, according to major league sources who spoke with Rosenthal. The Rays are looking to win both now and in the future and it’s hard to envision that a trade of Archer could make them a stronger club in 2016. That probably won’t stop clubs from inquiring on Archer, however, who is signed to a club-friendly extension through 2019 with club options that can hold him through 2021.

Stark’s Latest: Cueto, Leake Miller, Indians, Rays

By | December 5, 2015 at 7:18pm CDT

Here are the latest starting pitcher rumors in advance of the winter meetings, courtesy of ESPN’s Jayson Stark.

Johnny Cueto is the top pitcher on the free agent market, but his earning potential remains unclear. Some insiders are surprised he turned down the six-year, $120MM offer previously extended by the Diamondbacks. As Stark points out, Cueto is sixth among active starters with a 3.30 ERA so he would seemingly justify a serious investment. However, concerns about his health and late-season struggles have executives worried. Per one source, “If you told me that, within 24 hours [of arriving at the meetings], all of the big free-agent starters would be signed except Cueto, I’d believe it.“
Former Reds starter Mike Leake, 28, is in demand largely because he’s one of the youngest pitchers on the market. He has a history of durability, but that comes with league average production on the mound. However, Leake is also well-above average as a hitter, boosting his value to NL clubs. Stark expects a “stampede” in Leake’s direction during the Winter Meetings. One source believes Leake will be overpaid by an exuberant market.
The Braves would jump on a Shelby Miller trade if they received the right controllable position player. To date, Atlanta has focused on particularly high value targets like Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock, and Jorge Soler. As you might guess, few if any teams are eager to trade established, high quality young hitters for pitching. The Braves have shown no sign of backing down on their asking price.
We’ve heard a lot about the Indians pitching depth – namely Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. Stark and his sources think the club will stand pat this winter. “You’re just shifting around your problems,” said one contact in regard to a hypothetical pitcher-for-hitter swap. The team’s strength is built around their rotation. They may be best served by simply maximizing that advantage.
With the exception of Chris Archer, the Rays are shopping all of their starting pitchers. That’s par for the course for the Rays who historically have been open to trading anybody to improve the long term outlook of the franchise. Stark specifically mentions Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore as available, but we can probably presume that Erasmo Ramirez is being floated too.
Stark offers plenty of more notes in his column including the latest on the Yankees, Padres, and the remaining buyers for pitching.

Rays Notes: Payroll, Archer, Bloom

By | October 31, 2015 at 7:43pm CDT

The Rays have noticed the Royals’ aggressive approach at the plate, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. President of baseball operations Matt Silverman noted the past trend towards plate patience which aimed at knocking out the opposing starter as early as possible. Now teams have taken a more aggressive tack in response to elite bullpens. “Today bullpens are incredibly formidable and a number of teams are adjusting and taking a more aggressive approach throughout and trying to hit the strikes they see.”

Here’s more from the Rays:

Topkins expects the Rays payroll to decline in 2016. He views the $72MM spent in 2015 as a ceiling. Since the club has 11 arbitration eligible players, it would seem they may need to cut costs in other areas. Asdrubal Cabrera’s one-year, $7.5MM deal is the only major contract coming off the books.
By qualifying for Super Two status, Rays ace Chris Archer has locked in a $25.5MM guarantee. Archer signed a six-year contract extension at the start of the 2014 season. If he had failed to qualify for arbitration this offseason, the guarantee on his deal would have reduced to $20MM.
Rays vice president Chaim Bloom is expected to remain with the club after interviewing for a couple open GM positions. However, Bloom has been increasingly linked to GM openings, so it wouldn’t surprise me if the Blue Jays considered him with regard to their newly vacated position. That’s only my speculation. The Rays are also likely to promote internally to fill the position left by former director of pro scouting Matt Arnold.

List Of 2016 Super Two Qualifiers

By Jeff Todd | October 28, 2015 at 11:04am CDT

Presented below is the list of players who have qualified for Super Two status for arbitration purposes this year. (Service time in parentheses.) As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently tweeted, the service time cutoff is 2.130. You can find arbitration salary projections for these players right here.

Dan Jennings, White Sox (2.171)
George Kontos, Giants (2.171)
Justin Grimm, Cubs (2.170)
Arodys Vizcaino, Braves (2.168)
Avisail Garcia, White Sox (2.167)
Jurickson Profar, Rangers (2.167)
Jedd Gyorko, Padres (2.164)
Juan Lagares, Mets (2.160)
Didi Gregorius, Yankees (2.159)
Erasmo Ramirez, Rays (2.158)
Chris Archer, Rays (2.156)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies (2.155)
Will Smith, Brewers (2.155)
Jean Machi, Red Sox (2.154)
Seth Maness, Cardinals (2.154)
Scott Van Slyke, Dodgers (2.151)
David Lough, Orioles (2.149)
Chris Hatcher, Dodgers (2.146)
Evan Scribner, Athletics (2.142)
Nick Tepesch, Rangers (2.136)
Zach Putnam, White Sox (2.135)
Chris Withrow, Braves (2.132)
Kole Calhoun, Angels (2.130)
Jeff Manship, Indians (2.130)
Anthony Rendon, Nationals (2.130)

Click here to read more about how the Super Two concept works. Note that, as the link shows, the originally projected service time cutoff moved down as things played out over the course of the season. That brought some notable names into early arbitration qualification — namely, Calhoun and Rendon — which could have a big impact on their earning power in potential extension scenarios.

It’s also important to bear in mind that several of the players listed above have already agreed to long-term extensions: Gyorko, Lagares, and Archer. Notably, the size of the guarantee provided by Archer’s contract is dependent upon his Super Two status. By reaching it (as had been expected), he keeps a $25.5MM overall guarantee. That total would have been reduced to $20MM otherwise.

That contract structure reflects the importance of reaching Super Two status. Doing so not only bumps a player’s salary a year early, but sets a higher floor for future paydays.

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