Prior to yesterday’s game, the Blue Jays announced that they reinstated right-hander Chad Green from the injured list. In a corresponding move, fellow right-hander Erik Swanson was optioned to Triple-A Buffalo.
Swanson getting sent down is something that would have been hard to fathom just a few months ago. The righty made 57 appearances for the Mariners in 2022 and only allowed 1.68 earned runs per nine innings. He struck out 34% of batters faced that year and only gave out walks at a 4.9% clip.
After that tremendous season, the Blue Jays traded outfielder Teoscar Hernández to the Mariners for Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko. Swanson largely carried over his excellent results into 2023, appearing in 69 games with a 2.97 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. That included plenty of late-game action, as Swanson earned 29 holds and four saves for the Jays last year, largely serving as the primary setup guy to closer Jordan Romano.
The expectation was that Swanson would continue in that role here in 2024 but that hasn’t been the case. Swanson and the Jays got a scare back in February when the pitcher’s son Toby was hit by a car and taken to a local hospital. Thankfully, Toby was eventually released but Swanson was away from the club for a while and dealt with some forearm tightness when he returned.
He started the season on the injured list but missed just the first two weeks, getting reinstated in mid-April. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to get into a good groove so far this season. He’s made 17 appearances, tossing 13 2/3 innings, but has allowed 14 earned runs on the year. His 6.1% walk rate is good but he’s only punched out 15.2% of batters faced and has already allowed five home runs, whereas he only allowed eight all of last year and just three the year prior.
It doesn’t appear as though the injury is creating lingering effects, as Swanson’s velocity isn’t significantly different. His fastball averaged 93.7 miles per hour last year with his splitter at 85.1. Those numbers are down this year but just barely, to 93.6 and 85.0.
Speculatively speaking, perhaps he’s tipping his pitches or hitters have figured out some other way to get a read on him. His chase rate was around 34% in each of the past two years but is down to just 22.8% this year. When he has thrown the ball in the zone, hitters made contact around 72% of the time in the previous two campaigns but that number is up to 84.4% this year. That combination of less chase and more contact in the zone tracks with the significant drop in his strikeout rate. Even when players have chased, they are making contact 71.4% of the time, a big jump from last year’s 55.9% clip. It’s not as though he’s been leaving more pitches over the plate, as his “meatball” rate at Statcast has actually fallen from last year’s 7% to 5.7% this year. However, opposing hitters are swinging at those meatballs 92.9% of the time, a massive increase over last year’s 74.3%.
For whatever reason, opposing hitters appear to be seeing the ball well out of Swanson’s hand, striking out less and barreling the ball up more. He had a barrel rate around 6% in each of the past two years but has more than doubled that this year to 15.4%. That’s been one piece of a larger bullpen slide for the Jays, as the relief corps has gone from a strength to a weakness since last year. The club’s bullpen had a 3.68 ERA last year, putting them in the top ten among MLB clubs. This year, their ERA is up to 4.92, which is better than just the Rangers and Rockies.
That’s not all on Swanson, of course, as pitchers like Romano and Tim Mayza have also seen their numbers trend in the wrong direction, but not to the same degree as Swanson’s. With Green coming off the IL, the Jays could have optioned younger pitchers like Zach Pop or Nate Pearson but the fact that they opted to give Swanson a breather speaks to how rough his season has gone so far.
The Jays will undoubtedly be hoping that a brief reset can get Swanson back on track, whether they can hang around the playoff race or not. The club is having a bit of a disappointing season to this point, with the bullpen struggles playing a role in that. They are currently 25-29, last place in the American League East and five games out of a Wild Card spot.
There’s already been speculation that the club could consider pivoting to a selloff prior to this summer’s deadline. Climbing in the standings would take that off the table but it will be hanging over the club in the months to come if they stay on the fringes of contention.
Swanson came into this season with four years and 96 days of major league service time, putting him 76 days shy of the five-year mark. He added another 61 days this year prior to getting optioned, leaving him 15 shy of crossing that mark.
Assuming he comes back at some point this year, he’ll have no problem crossing that threshold and staying on track for free agency after 2025. Though if his struggles continue down in the minors and he doesn’t earn his way back, he could end up shy of the line and have his free agency delayed by another year.
The Jays would surely love if that’s not a scenario they have to consider. If Swanson can quickly get back on track, he can return to being a key part of their bullpen for a playoff push. Or if he is succeeding while the club is faltering, he could be marketed to other clubs at the deadline with an extra year of control. But for now, he and the club will have to figure out a plan for putting this rough patch behind him.
