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Eugenio Suarez

How The Reds Got Their 49-HR Man

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The Reds’ Eugenio Suarez has morphed into one of the majors’ most valuable third basemen over the past few years. Dating back to 2017, Suarez has accounted for 12.3 fWAR – the eighth-highest figure at his position and one that puts him in company with names like Kris Bryant and Josh Donaldson. At this point, it’s fair to call Suarez a cornerstone for the Reds, who signed him to a seven-year extension worth $66MM after his breakout effort in ’17. That now looks like a brilliant move from the team’s perspective, while acquiring him in the first place counts as one of former general manager Walt Jocketty’s shrewdest decisions atop their front office.

Let’s start with how Suarez got to this level after first joining the Tigers as a free agent out of Venezuela in 2008. Within five years, Suarez was regarded among the top five prospects in their system, though he didn’t wow anyone during his lone action in Detroit’s uniform. In his first season in the majors in 2014, Suarez played shortstop and batted .242/.316/.336 (86 wRC+) with 0.9 fWAR over 277 plate appearances and 85 games. The Tigers then shipped him and pitching prospect Jonathon Crawford to Cincinnati for right-hander Alfredo Simon heading into the 2015 season.

Simon was, of course, the headliner when the trade occurred. Then 33 years old, Simon was coming off an All-Star season in which he pitched to a 3.44 ERA/4.33 FIP over 196 1/3 innings. It was just the first season as a full-time starter for Simon, who functioned either as a reliever or a swingman in prior years. Unfortunately for Detroit, it would go down as his sole effective season from the rotation, though that wasn’t entirely surprising.

As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote when the trade happened: “Of course, Simon comes with plenty of questions as to whether he can repeat his effort. ERA estimators were not nearly as high on his work last year. And his ERA ballooned to 4.52 in the second half of the season.”

The Tigers didn’t make the playoffs in 2015, which proved to be Simon’s lone year with the franchise, and he was only able to muster a 5.05 ERA/4.77 FIP in 187 frames along the way. Then-president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who acquired Simon, didn’t make it through the season. Simon went back to the Reds in free agency thereafter, but he also struggled in his return to Cincy and hasn’t been heard from since at the major league level.

So, buying one year of control over Simon clearly didn’t go as hoped for the Tigers. It gets worse when you consider what they gave up. Sure, Crawford – the Tigers’ first-round pick in 2013 – didn’t amount to anything in the majors. In fact, he never even advanced beyond the High-A level, where he last pitched in 2017. Conversely, Suarez can be counted as one who got away for the Tigers.

It took Suarez until 2017 to truly find his groove in a Reds uniform, but as mentioned, he has established himself as a highly valuable member of the team and someone who could help key their resurgence sometime soon. Now a prolific slugger, Suarez has combined for 130 home runs in the past four seasons. He hit a jaw-dropping 49 last year to finish second in the majors, trailing only Mets Rookie of the Year winner Pete Alonso. Additionally, Suarez managed a .271/.358/.572 line (good for a 133 wRC+), totaled a personal-high 4.5 fWAR and missed a mere three of the Reds’ 162 games.

Suarez, still just 28, is on track to stay a Red through at least 2024. He’ll make reasonable salaries ranging from $9.25MM to $11MM through then, and the Reds will have a decision to make on a club option come 2025 ($15MM guarantee versus $2MM buyout). By FanGraphs’ estimate, Suarez’s production in Cincinnati has already been worth around $116MM. All the Tigers got for parting with that was a disappointing season from Simon, and they still haven’t found a clear answer at third since moving on from Suarez.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Eugenio Suarez To Ramp Up Rehab Next Week

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Amidst all the tragedy and misfortune being caused by COVID-19, one tiny silver lining in the baseball world is that the delayed start to the season gives injured players more time to recuperate. One such player is Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who underwent right shoulder surgery in January.

Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer spoke to Reds manager David Bell about various injured Reds players and how they are handling their rehab programs in isolation. (The team shut down their spring training facility after an employee tested positive for COVID-19, meaning that the players have all gone home, or wherever it is they prefer to train.) When asked about Suarez, Bell had this to say. “Right on track, and by next week he will be resuming all his throwing, fielding and swinging. He’s a guy that we were pretty optimistic that he had a strong chance to be ready for Opening Day. Now, he’ll have a lot more time.”

Just before spring training was suspended on March 12, Suarez was set to DH in a game, with his readiness for Opening Day still in question. Now that the season has been pushed back, he should have ample opportunity to get into shape for when games resume, whenever that may be.

And while it is surely welcome news for the Reds that one of their best players is getting healthy, this could have the side effect of further crowding the battle for playing time and roster spots among some of the less-experienced members of the team. Players such as Nick Senzel, Aristides Aquino, Josh VanMeter, Phil Ervin, Kyle Farmer, Alex Blandino, Travis Jankowski and Scott Schebler could be battling for just four seats on the bench next to backup catcher Curt Casali.

Quick Hits: Suarez, Puk, Trammell, Braves

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Injured Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez continues to make progress in his recovery from the right shoulder surgery he underwent in January, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com relays. Manager David Bell announced that Suarez will make his spring training debut Friday. Suarez won’t play the field in that game, but optimism continues to build that the slugger will be ready for Opening Day.

Now for the latest on a few other clubs…

  • Athletics hurler A.J. Puk has been down with a mild shoulder strain for a week, but the left-hander said Monday that he expects to resume throwing Tuesday (Twitter links via Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). While Puk’s still hopeful that he’ll be set to go for the beginning of the regular season, he added that he doesn’t “want to rush anything. It’s a long season and I’d rather be feeling healthy down the stretch.” The promising Puk, 24, hasn’t experienced a healthy big league season yet. He missed 2018 because of Tommy John surgery and then combined for fewer than 40 professional innings last year as he worked his way back. However, he did toss 11 1/3 quality frames from the A’s bullpen late in the season. If Puk’s health holds up in 2020, he could emerge as a key member of Oakland’s rotation.
  • Although he hasn’t played above the Double-A level yet, Padres outfield prospect Taylor Trammell remains in consideration for a major league roster spot, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. It’s a long shot that Trammell will actually begin the year in the majors, according to Cassavell, but manager Jayce Tingler noted that the 22-year-old is “playing really well” and has had “a great experience” in spring training. Trammell, whom the Padres acquired from Cincy in a blockbuster trade last summer, has gone 9-for-23 with three doubles and a triple this spring.
  • Lefty A.J. Minter and righty Chad Sobotka’s bids to earn season-opening roster spots with the Braves have already ended. The team optioned the pair Monday, leaving it with 52 players on its camp roster, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets. Neither pitcher performed well for the Braves last year. Minter walked a little over seven hitters per nine, contributing heavily to a hideous 7.06 ERA in 29 1/3 innings. Sobotka wasn’t much better over his 29 frames, in which he logged a 6.21 ERA with 5.9 walks per nine and an HR/9 of 1.86.

Health Notes: Suarez, Piscotty, Archer, Clase/Civale

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Fortunately, there hasn’t been much in the way of negative health news to this point of Spring Training. Let’s check in on a few issues that have arisen …

  • Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez is feeling both excitement and some trepidation as he nears readiness to test his recently tweaked shoulder, as Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. Indication remains that Suarez could conceivably be ready to roll on Opening Day. He says he’s getting his timing down even as he avoids throwing or swinging full-bore. But there are also some nerves as he prepares to ramp up. “Just a little bit because I know I have something there,” Suarez said when asked whether he’s nervous. “I don’t want to get hurt again. I have to be careful. We’ll see what happens.”
  • After a disappointing 2019 season, the last thing Athletics outfielder Stephen Piscotty wants to deal with is another injury issue. Right now, the hope is that his oblique/rib cage problem isn’t going to represent a major limitation, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. But Piscotty might be down for another week and it’s beginning to look like Opening Day readiness could be in doubt. That’d be a disappointment, of course, but it’s surely better than rushing back and ending up with a bigger problem.
  • Neck tightness kept Pirates righty Chris Archer from making a scheduled outing today, as Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic was among those to report on Twitter. There hasn’t been a substantial update just yet, but there’s no reason to believe that this is more than a minor blip.
  • It’s a similar situation in Indians’ camp, where righties Emmanuel Clase and Aaron Civale have been limited. As MLB.com’s Mandy Bell tweets, the former is dealing with lat discomfort and the latter a sore groin. While Clase is going to slow his build-up to let things calm down, Civale is preparing to throw a sim game.

Bell: Suarez Could Be Ready For Opening Day

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Despite undergoing shoulder surgery to remove some loose cartilage in late January, Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez could potentially be ready to go by Opening Day, manager David Bell told reporters Thursday (Twitter link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

The injury was never expected to sideline Suarez for too much of the 2020 campaign; the Cincinnati organization announced at the time of the procedure that Suarez would be ready to play in games “near the beginning of the regular season.” That’s a relatively nebulous statement, but Bell suggests that recent tests/updates have encouraged the team.

Suarez’s injury status will be notable to follow for several reasons. Beyond the simple fact that he’s emerged as one of the National League’s better players and is on a club that enters the 2020 season more poised to contend that at any point in the past five years, Suarez’s status figures to have a ripple effect throughout the organization. Offseason signee Mike Moustakas was added with the idea that he’d move to second base on a full-time basis, but it’s conceivable that he could see action at third base early in the year should Suarez need some IL time. That could open the door for a non-roster player such as Derek Dietrich to again break camp with Cincinnati or for a younger player like Josh VanMeter to get some regular reps early in 2020.

The Reds surely want Suarez in the lineup as soon as possible, given that the 28-year-old broke out with a massive .271/.358/.572 slash and 49 home runs this past season. At the same time, the club also has to resist the temptation to rush him back into the fold, as a healthy Suarez figures to be a key anchor in a lineup that was bolstered by the offseason additions of Moustakas, Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama.

The 2019-20 offseason saw the Pirates take a step back, the Brewers scale back payroll (while still making numerous low-cost moves), the Cardinals make only minimal additions and the Cubs barely even try to improve at all. The Reds look to be the most improved club in the division, and the extent to which Suarez is able to contribute should be an important factor in their chances of returning to contention in 2020.

Eugenio Suarez Will Be Limited In Spring Training Following Shoulder Surgery

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The Reds announced that third baseman Eugenio Suarez underwent surgery to remove loose cartilage from his right shoulder earlier today. The injury came about recently when Suarez was swimming, per the announcement. The team expects the 28-year-old Suarez to be ready to play in games “near the beginning of the regular season” but acknowledged that he’ll be “limited” early in Spring Training.

It’s an unwelcome development for the Reds, but the team has ample depth to withstand an absence from the slugging Suarez should he require some time on the injured list early in the year. Offseason signee Mike Moustakas, of course, has spent the majority of his career manning the hot corner, and highly touted youngster Nick Senzel has played third base more than any other position since being selected with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2016 draft.

Then again, Reds general manager Nick Krall tells reporters (Twitter link via The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans) that Senzel isn’t likely to slot in at third base if Suarez isn’t ready to go come Opening Day. That still leaves open the possibility of utilizing Moustakas at third base and Senzel at second base, although Senzel is working back from his own shoulder surgery. If he’s not ready to go or the team prefers an alternative alignment, Josh VanMeter could also get a look at second base with Moustakas at third.

Depth aside, the loss of Suarez for even a brief period of time would be a notable blow to the Reds, who are clearly intent on returning to the postseason after an aggressive offseason of additions. Suarez’s power numbers have exploded over the past two seasons, including a 2019 effort in which he improbably flirted with the elusive 50-homer threshold. Dating back to 2018, Suarez has raked at a .277/.362/.550 clip (135 OPS+), hitting 83 homers, 44 doubles and four triples along the way. Even with Moustakas, Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama joining the party in Cincinnati, Suarez was sure to be relied on as a vital middle-of-the-order threat.

Prior to that breakout, Suarez had already established himself as a quality option at the hot corner and at the plate, but the Reds have to be thrilled with the decision to negotiate a long-term extension just prior to Opening Day 2018 as opposed to the following offseason, as his price would have escalated considerably. As it is, the seven-year, $66MM deal to which Suarez agreed on March 16, 2018, looks like a coup for the Reds’ front office — even if it was one that carried some risk at the time of the signing. Suarez is set to earn $9.25MM in 2020 under the terms of that deal and will earn subsequent salaries of $10.5MM (2021) and $11MM (2022-24). The deal also contains a $15MM team option for the 2025 season, which comes with a $2MM buyout.

Reds Offense, Not The Bullpen, Responsible For Struggles In Close Games

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The Reds bullpen crumbled down the stretch in 2019, but confidence remains high in their core group of high-impact relievers, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

They formed the league’s best unit over the first half of the season, but the pressure never let up as the Reds finished with more one-run margins than any other team in the game. 57 one-run games plus another 31 games with a two-run margin made the difference in an up-and-down season for Cincinnati. Interestingly, President of Baseball Ops pretty clearly assigned blame in these games to the offense, defending the bullpen in saying, “When they did let things get away, I think they were, at times, unfairly scrutinized because I really think when the offense had chances to provide separating runs, get big leads, jump out, we just didn’t get quite enough of that, taking pressure off the pitching at times.”

The bullpen finished middle-of-the-pack by ERA, FIP, and fWAR, though admittedly closer to the top than the bottom. Despite all the close games, the unit still finished 25th in innings pitched, a good indicator for the starting rotation. All things considered, the Reds enter the offseason feeling pretty good about Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett, and Robert Stephenson making up the core of their relief unit.

[RELATED – Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds]

All signs point to another eventful winter for the Reds, but it’s the offense where Williams is focusing his attention. Despite some breakout power in the forms of Eugenio Suarez and Aristides Aquino, the Reds finished 25th in the majors in runs scored. Their offense as a whole finished with just an 87 wRC+, also ranking 25th in the MLB. They have a ways to go to join the league’s elite in this regard: 11 teams finished with 100+ weighted runs created plus, 8 of whom made the postseason. The Cardinals 95 wRC+ was the lowest of any team in the postseason.

NL Central Notes: Jeffress, Kela, Baez, Darvish, Suarez, Reds

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The Brewers released Jeremy Jeffress today, but before parting ways with the former All-Star, Milwaukee tried shopping the reliever within the NL Central.  The Athletic’s Robert Murray reported back in July that the Brewers and Pirates were discussing a trade that involved Keone Kela, and Murray reports today that a Jeffress-for-Kela swap was floated between the division rivals, though “talks never gained traction.”

While the Bucs were (and possibly still are) open to moving Kela in trade negotiations, the controversial right-hander isn’t necessarily a totally expendable piece for the Pirates, whereas Jeffress was clearly no longer in Milwaukee’s plans, as GM David Stearns indicated today to Murray and other reporters.  While Stearns left the door open for a potential reunion with Jeffress down the road, the reliever was hampered by a lack of trust in his splitter and a loss of velocity, possibly due to a heavy workload in 2018 or a shoulder injury that sidelined him for most of Spring Training.  “I think his arsenal changed this year.  That’s something that’s been well documented, not only with the fastball velocity but with the loss of a pitch that had become extremely important in his repertoire,” Stearns said.  “When you lose a pitch, you have to become a different pitcher and it’s certainly possible that Jeremy can become a different pitcher and be effective. We just didn’t see it consistently enough to count on him at any point this year.”

Here’s more from around the NL Central…

  • The Cubs received a twin dose of injury scares on Sunday when Yu Darvish was scratched from his start due to right forearm tightness.  In that same game, Javier Baez suffered a sore neck and a jammed left thumb after sliding into Orlando Arcia’s knee during a third-inning steal of second base.  Baez stayed in the game before being removed in the seventh, and while he may miss a game or two, x-rays were negative on his hand and the shortstop expects to be fine.  Darvish’s injury is more ominous, particularly since the righty has been dealing with the issue for his last five outings, as pitching coach Tommy Hottovy and manager Joe Maddon told reporters (including MLB.com’s Russell Dorsey).  Despite the late scratch, Maddon thinks Darvish will be ready to make his next turn in the rotation.  Needless to say, the Cubs can’t afford to lose any key contributors given the tight status of both the NL Central and NL wild card races.
  • Eugenio Suarez left the Reds’ 5-3 win over the Cardinals tonight after being hit on the left hand during a fifth inning plate appearance.  Suarez will be evaluated tomorrow after the swelling subsides.  The third baseman has continued to be an offensive force for the Reds (.261/.342/.546 with 40 home runs in 568 plate appearances) despite a worrying spike in swing-and-miss, as Suarez has a league-high 161 strikeouts.
  • The Reds’ pitching has gone from a major weakness in 2018 to a strength in 2019, and while some new acquisitions like Sonny Gray and (the since-traded) Tanner Roark played a part in that improvement, Cincinnati’s biggest addition might have been pitching coach Derek Johnson.  C. Trent Rosecrans and Eno Sarris of The Athletic (subscription required) break down how several of the Reds’ arms have changed their tactics from last season now that they’re under Johnson’s tutelage.

NL Notes: Kang, Brewers, Mets, Reds

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After spending several years with the Pirates, who released him Aug. 5, it’s possible free-agent infielder Jung Ho Kang will resurface in the National League Central. Kang took infield practice with the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate in San Antonio on Thursday, as journalist Joe Alexander noted. Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel corroborated Alexander’s report Friday, tweeting that Kang has been working out with the Brewers’ top farm club. Kang and the Brewers have not reached an agreement on a minor league contract yet, though, as general manager David Stearns said the two sides still have issues to work out, per Haudricourt. The once-valuable Kang, 32, is looking to rebuild his stock after batting a hideous .169/.222/.395 in 185 plate appearances with Pittsburgh this season.

Here’s more on a pair of other NL teams…

  • Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo finally began a rehab assignment Friday at the Single-A level, Tim Healey of Newsday was among those to report. A bulging disc in Nimmo’s neck has shelved him since May 21, meaning it’s likely he’ll need a solid amount of time to work back, as Healey notes. The Mets have charged into playoff contention in recent weeks despite Nimmo’s absence, though they’ve since lost fellow noteworthy position players Jeff McNeil, Robinson Cano and Dominic Smith to the injured list. Unlike McNeil and Smith, Nimmo was in the throes of a surprisingly difficult season when he went down. After getting on base at a .404 clip and totaling 4.5 fWAR during what looked like a breakout 2018, the 26-year-old Nimmo came out of the gates this season with a .200/.344/.323 line and 0.2 fWAR in 161 PA.
  • Cano and closer Edwin Diaz, the Mets’ two biggest winter acquisitions, have joined Nimmo in enduring trying seasons. The Mets expected the great track records of Cano and Diaz to carry to their organization when they picked up the two during the offseason in a blockbuster trade with the Mariners. Instead, they’ve struggled, and the top best prospects the Mets surrendered – outfielder Jarred Kelenic and righty Justin Dunn – have excelled, as David Schoenfield of ESPN.com observes. Kelenic and Dunn were already well-regarded prospects at the time of the deal, but their stocks have only risen this season. Both players reflected on the swap with Schoenfield, Kelenic saying: “I looked up at a TV and my name was up there as a rumor. I was like, ’Are you kidding me? Is anyone else seeing this?'” Kelenic was in disbelief the Mets were set to move him just a few months after choosing him sixth overall in the draft. As for Dunn, a Long Island native, he understands why general manager Brodie Van Wagenen dealt him. “He had to do what was best for the organization,” Dunn stated, adding that “he had to do the right move for his team, which was to try and win now.”
  • Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez departed the team’s loss to St. Louis on Friday with a left thumb sprain, per an announcement from Cincinnati. X-rays came back negative on Suarez, who’s day-to-day. The big-hitting 28-year-old’s production has taken steps back this season compared to 2018. However, Suarez has still slashed a more-than-respectable .259/.341/.530 with 33 home runs in 504 PA, further justifying the Reds’ decision to hand him a seven-year, $66MM extension prior to last season.

Market Chatter: Greinke, Suzuki, Eovaldi, Reds, Nats, Phils

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The Diamondbacks are “aggressively shopping” righty Zack Greinke, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). With $95.5MM of salary still due over the next three years, he’s an expensive option. But the deal is at least cabined in length, and the Snakes have a good shot at getting out from under most of it. (Alternatively, the club might be able to pay down a larger portion and recoup some talent in a swap — or go in the other direction and include additional talent to make the whole contract go away.) It’s still largely unclear how things will shake out, but the fact that the Arizona organization is looking for a taker certainly makes a trade seem quite plausible.

Here’s the latest chatter on the rest of the market:

  • It is a testament to veteran backstop Kurt Suzuki that he has been re-signed, re-acquired, or extended by three of the four organizations he has played for. One of those, the Athletics, could have designs on a third stint. Per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, there has already been some discussion between the Oakland club and the 35-year-old free agent. Suzuki has never been more productive at the plate than he was over the past two years with the Braves, when he turned in a cumulative .276/.341/.485 slash with 31 home runs in 697 plate appearances. Slusser also notes that reliever Shawn Kelley remains a possibility to return, with four other teams also inquiring about securing his services.
  • Nathan Eovaldi’s health is a major factor in his free agency. Though he’s only 28 years of age, the righty has undergone a pair of Tommy John surgeries and required another elbow procedure before making it back to the mound in 2018. Of course, the results were quite promising, and he has now also received a strong endorsement from his surgeon today, as Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports. Dr. Christopher Ahmad says that, after conducting an extensive examination, he “would consider [Eovaldi] in the same category of somebody who has a healthy arm.” While any signing team will want to take a look for itself, it’s obviously quite a notable opinion to receive at the outset of free agency.
  • The Reds would surely love to land Eovaldi or another higher-end arm, though it’s still questionable whether they’ll dabble in that end of the market. What is clear, president of baseball operations Dick Williams said in a radio interview, is that the club hopes to find a pair of new pitchers — likely starters (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Getting the right arms won’t just mean waiting to see what shakes loose at a cheap price, says Williams. Rather, the club intends “to be in front of these agents and these other teams talking more aggressively.” Sure enough, Jon Heyman of Fancred says the Reds have engaged with the Mariners (James Paxton), Indians (Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco), and Yankees (Sonny Gray). With the Cinci org said to be hesitant to move its best assets, getting the desired arms could mean exploring some creative trades. That said, Williams shot down recent chatter surrounding purported Padres interest in star Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez. “Just to sort of nip that in the bud, I’ll tell you that rumor is unfounded,” said Williams.
  • It’s also clear that the Nationals are on the lookout for starters, though here also it’s hard to know just where the team may focus. As I discussed recently in setting forth the team’s outlook for the 2018-19 offseason, there are an abundance of possibilities at this point. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post provides some insight into the club’s thinking while ticking through the options. She notes that the Nats “think highly” of free agent Dallas Keuchel — the match we predicted when we broke down our Top 50 Free Agents. That’s not to say, of course, that he’s a uniquely clear fit in D.C. As Janes explains, the organization still seems likely to canvass the market, though it seems reasonable to anticipate that it’ll come away with at least one significant new hurler.
  • Staying in the division, it’s worth looking back at a post we missed at the time. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reported recently that the Phillies are quite likely to deal away third baseman Maikel Franco. Indeed, it seems there’s a reasonable match already under contemplation with the Padres. Of course as noted above, the Friars clearly are interested in looking around the rest of the market before pulling the trigger on a deal for Franco. The Phils are also said to be willing to discuss Cesar Hernandez, though he seems much less likely to be shipped out. It’ll be interesting to see how everything will unfold in Philadelphia, as the team is known to be chasing some of the biggest names on the market but also has some less consequential moves that it could contemplate pulling off first.
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