Blue Jays Expected To Trade From Catching Surplus
The Blue Jays have an enviable crop of talented catchers and are expected to use one of them in a trade this offseason, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network.
It’s been speculated for quite some time that the Blue Jays will have to move on from a catcher eventually, given their various options. Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno are all MLB-caliber backstops with varying degrees of experience. Since most teams are lucky to even have one good catcher, let alone three, it’s fairly logical to think they might consider dealing one of them to address another part of the roster. Last offseason, Toronto’s catching mix came up often in offseason chatter and it has only gotten more crowded since then.
Despite the numbers of options available, there were good reasons they didn’t pull the trigger on a deal a year ago. At the end of 2021, Gabriel Moreno was considered one of the top prospects in baseball but only had three Triple-A games on his résumé. Alejandro Kirk had an exciting debut in 2020 but was limited by injury to just 60 games in 2021. Danny Jansen, the longest-tenured of the bunch, also missed significant time in 2021, only getting into 70 contests. Given there was some uncertainty with each of their three choices, it made sense to take a wait-and-see approach.
Here in 2022, Moreno added 62 more Triple-A games, hitting .315/.386/.420 for a wRC+ of 120. He also got into 25 big league contests and produced a .319/.356/.377 line with a 113 wRC+ while looking strong on defense, including throwing out 7 of 17 attempted base stealers. Kirk stayed off the IL and got into 139 games. In that time, he hit .285/.372/.415 for a wRC+ of 129 while also posting 9 Defensive Runs Saved and a 7.6 from the FanGraphs framing metric. Jansen still dealt with injuries and only got into 72 games, though he hit a tremendous 15 home runs in that time and slashed .260/.339/.516 for a wRC+ of 140. His defensive marks were also generally strong, allowing him to post 2.6 fWAR despite playing less than half of the team’s games.
If the Jays felt they had enough catching to consider a trade a year ago, the circumstances have only pushed them further towards that conclusion since then. The only question will be which of the group to move on from. Jansen got a cup of coffee in 2018 but established himself as a regular in 2019 by getting into 107 games. His bat was below average but he provided 12 DRS and earned an 8.1 from the FanGraphs framing metric. His bat has continued evolving in the following seasons, though that has come with durability concerns. Due to the pandemic-shortened season in 2020 and two straight years of injury disruptions, he hasn’t played more than 72 games in a single season since 2019. He also only has two remaining years of club control and is projected for a $3.7MM arbitration salary in 2023 by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
Kirk and Moreno are each still in their pre-arb years, with the Jays still having four years of club control over Kirk and six over Moreno. That extra cheap control surely makes them more appealing to the Jays in the long term but it would also lead to greater returns in any trade talks. Various teams will likely be considering upgrades behind the plate this winter, including the Astros, Cardinals, Tigers, Cubs, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Twins, Guardians, Pirates, Red Sox and Rays. Some of those teams will look to free agency, with Willson Contreras the top of the market. However, he will surely require a significant contract as well as draft pick forfeiture, since he will undoubtedly receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Cubs. There will be other options available, such as Christian Vázquez, Gary Sánchez, Tucker Barnhart and more, though those players are all older than the trio on Toronto’s roster and will likely earn higher salaries on the open market.
Regardless of how the Jays ultimately decide to play it, this catching surplus might be their best path towards improving the club this offseason. As recently explored by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk as part of the Offseason Outlook series, the Jays are already slated for a franchise-record payroll, even before making any moves. A few non-tenders could drop that number a bit and ownership could greenlight some extra spending, but it’s possible that the Jays aren’t positioned for huge free agent strikes this winter. If that is indeed the case, a trade centered around one of their backstops could be the ticket to improving the roster for 2023.
Starting pitching will likely be an area of focus for the club, with Ross Stripling departing via free agency and Hyun Jin Ryu set to miss at least part of the season due to Tommy John surgery. They will still have a strong front two in Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman but then a group of guys coming off down years in José Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White. Finding starting pitchers that are both cheap and good is generally quite difficult to do, but the Jays look to be in good position to turn to the trade market instead.
AL East Notes: Moreno, Rutschman, Red Sox
With Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen, and top prospect Gabriel Moreno all vying for playing time in 2023, there has been constant speculation over which of these catchers could be dealt to help the Blue Jays address other needs. However, a trade isn’t necessarily a sure thing, as one (at least temporary) answer could be to move Moreno out from behind the plate, as noted by Shi Davidi in a piece for Baseball America. Moreno played in a handful of games at first and third base in the minors, and the final game of the Blue Jays’ 2022 season saw him play as a second baseman and left fielder for the first time in his pro career.
“We have to be open to everything. That’s why you’ve seen him play in different positions,” Toronto GM Ross Atkins told Davidi and other reporters. “But we have to be open to any way to maximize our 40-man roster at this point, and (catching) is clearly an area of depth.”
A catcher athletic enough to play other positions carries extra value, and depending on how well Moreno adapts, his ultimate future might not even be behind the plate. For instance, the Diamondbacks find themselves looking for catching help since former catcher-of-the-future Daulton Varsho has delivered such strong glovework in the outfield. Finding a way to fit Moreno, Kirk, and Jansen into the same lineup would be a boon for the Jays, as Moreno doesn’t have much left to prove at Triple-A. Returning Moreno to the minors “is not our best outcome, most likely, given his progress,” Atkins said.
More from around the AL East…
- Orioles GM Mike Elias has already stated that his team plans to spend more in 2023, though the size and nature of the payroll boost will naturally only be determined as the offseason progresses. Not all of the Orioles’ expenditures would have to be on new talent, as The Baltimore Sun’s Nathan Ruiz opines that “arguably no move made this winter would benefit [the team’s] future more than ensuring [Adley] Rutschman is a part of it.” Locking up Rutschman to a big multi-year extension would follow the pattern of teams looking to lock up star young talents, as we’ve seen with the Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez and the Braves’ Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider just within the last couple of months. There isn’t necessarily any rush for the O’s to make a deal since Rutschman only just finished his rookie season, yet extending the catcher or any of Baltimore’s many up-and-coming young stars would seem like a logical next step in the front office’s process.
- The Red Sox are one of many teams facing some tough 40-man roster decisions this winter, and NBC Sports Boston’s John Tomase takes a look at some of the prospects under consideration to receive roster spots. Some decisions are easier than others, as shortstop/center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela will certainly be added to the 40-man following a great season at the high-A and Double-A levels. Rafaela hit .299/.342/.539 with 21 homers and 28 steals over 522 combined plate appearances at the two levels in 2022, and also flashed some excellent defense at multiple positions.
Injured List Transactions: Sale, Jansen, Garver
The Red Sox reinstated Chris Sale to make his season debut tonight against the Rays, as had been reported last week. The veteran southpaw missed the first few months of the year after he was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his rib during Spring Training. It’s the third straight injury-impacted season for Sale, who missed all of 2020 and the bulk of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. His return is a necessary welcome development for a Boston club that has five starting pitching options (Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, Garrett Whitlock and Connor Seabold) on the 15-day injured list at the moment.
Boston optioned rookie right-hander Brayan Bello to Triple-A Worcester in a corresponding active roster move. The 23-year-old, who’s one of the best pitching prospects in the organization, was promoted last week and made his first two big league starts. Bello surrendered nine runs with seven strikeouts and six walks in eight innings, however, so the club will send him back to the minors for a bit. A 40-man roster vacancy for Sale was created yesterday when catcher Kevin Plawecki landed on the COVID-19 injured list, but Boston will need to make another move in that regard once Plawecki is cleared to return.
Updates on a pair of other notable injury moves:
- The Blue Jays welcomed back catcher Danny Jansen from the 10-day injured list, installing him right into tonight’s starting lineup against the Phillies. The 27-year-old missed a month after fracturing a finger on his left hand, his second notable injury of the season. That and an April oblique strain have limited Jansen to just 19 games thus far, but he’s blasted seven home runs in limited action. In a corresponding active roster move, top prospect Gabriel Moreno was optioned back to Triple-A Buffalo. A consensus top prospect, Moreno was promoted for his MLB debut shortly after Jansen went down. The 22-year-old only collected one extra-base hit (a double) in his first 60 trips to the plate as a big leaguer, though. With Jansen back and the Jays firmly in win-now mode, they’ll turn back to the veteran while giving Moreno regular reps in Triple-A. Across 36 games with the Bisons, Moreno is hitting .324/.380/.404.
- Last night, the Rangers transferred catcher/designated hitter Mitch Garver from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list. That’s not a surprise, as he’ll miss the rest of the season after undergoing season-ending surgery to repair the injured flexor tendon in his forearm. The move freed a spot on Texas’ 40-man roster, which Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests (on Twitter) is likely to go to reliever Jonathan Hernández. The right-hander hasn’t pitched in the majors since undergoing Tommy John surgery in April 2021, but he’s been on a rehab stint at Triple-A Round Rock for the past month and a half. Grant notes that his allotted rehab window wraps up tomorrow, meaning he’ll have to be reinstated from the 60-day IL or shut down from his rehab entirely. The former seems likelier, as manager Chris Woodward suggested Hernández should be back with the big league club soon.
Blue Jays Promote Gabriel Moreno, Option Zack Collins
As expected, the Blue Jays have promoted top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno today to make his big league debut. As a corresponding roster move, catcher Zack Collins was optioned to Triple-A, per the Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath (via Twitter). The inevitability of Moreno’s arrival in the bigs first broke a couple of days ago. Today should be the day we get to see him on the diamond as the Jays take on the Tigers in Detroit later this afternoon.
This is not likely to be the last time that Collins sees time in the bigs, as he has largely performed as expected, providing some left-handed pop from behind the plate. The 27-year-old has slashed .212/.288/.455 with four round-trippers in 73 plate appearances. Collins was acquired from the White Sox in a straight swap for Reese McGuire.
Moreno was the 7th-ranked prospect in all of baseball at the start of the season per both MLB.com and Baseball America. He now gets his first taste of the bigs after slashing .324/.380/.404 across 150 plate appearances in Triple-A so far this season. Whether or not Moreno is here to stay could depend on a number of factors, but with the Blue Jays fairly well-stocked behind the plate, Moreno will likely have to hit the ground running to make himself into a fixture in Toronto. With Alejandro Kirk behind the plate and Danny Jansen set to return from the injured list at some point, the Blue Jays may not be able to find regular at-bats for Moreno unless he’s back in Triple-A.
Big Hype Prospects: Lowe, Kwan, Kirby, Moreno, Baz
This week, we check in two players making their debut, another on the cusp of return, and two others who have mixed results.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Josh Lowe, 24, OF, TBR (AAA)
125 PA, 5 HR, 4 SB, .291/.368/.527
Lowe began the season in the Majors where he struggled with strikeouts en route to a .188/.257/.344 triple-slash. Upon returning to Triple-A, Lowe immediately dealt damage with his bat. He blasted four home runs in his first 46 plate appearances, but they came at the cost of 21 strikeouts (45.7% K%). Since then, Lowe’s exploits at the plate have been less emphatic. He’s hitting .300/.380/.443 with seven doubles and one home run over 79 plate appearances. The good news – and the reason for this update – is his strikeout rate has steadily declined. He’s done particularly well over his last 12 games, striking out just once every five plate appearances.
Although Lowe hasn’t socked many home runs lately, he’s still hitting plenty of doubles. The improvements to his strikeout and walk rates suggest he’s ready to return to the Majors. The Rays don’t have an odd man out among their position players. However, they’re currently carrying 14 pitchers and will need to trim down to 13 on June 19. Unless Brandon Lowe or Wander Franco make a miraculous recovery from their injuries, Lowe will be the most impactful position player already on the 40-man roster.
Steven Kwan, 24, OF, CLE (MLB)
171 PA, 1 HR, 4 SB, .271/.368/.368
Kwan was a revelation during the first week of the season. He has a preternatural ability to avoid missing pitches. His 2.1 percent swinging strike rate not only leads the league, it leads all player seasons since Marco Scutaro’s heyday. Unfortunately, all strengths are also weaknesses. In Kwan’s case, he rarely makes hard contact. Among qualified hitters, he ranks fifth-worst in hard contact rate, sixth-worst in average exit velocity, and second-worst in max exit velocity. Nicky Lopez, Myles Straw, and Tony Kemp are the most-similar hitters by contact quality. Kwan has recently dropped to the bottom of the Guardians lineup amid all these softly-hit baseballs.
If there’s a silver lining, it’s that his bat-to-ball skills remain elite, even if the result of that contact isn’t anything special. He has a 12.3 percent walk rate compared to a seven percent strikeout rate. To put this in context, I sorted all player seasons of 150 or more plate appearances over the last decade by walk rate minus strikeout rate. Thus far, Kwan’s debut ranks seventh-best. Appearing ahead of him are Yandy Diaz (2022), Juan Soto (2020, 2021), Joey Votto (2017), Jose Ramirez (2022), and Tommy La Stella (2020). While most of the players on this list are superstar sluggers, a few names like Luis Arraez and Eric Sogard are also present. Kwan seemingly fits in this tier of player.
George Kirby, 24, SP, SEA (MLB)
32 IP, 3.38 ERA, 8.72 K/9, 0.84 BB/9
On the surface, Kirby is having a fantastic debut. After skipping Triple-A entirely, he’s contributing above average outings to a Mariners club desperate to recapture their 2021 swagger. There are some causes for concern, namely the bluish hue of his Statcast metrics. Kirby has been plagued by loud contact. He hasn’t yet felt the sting – at least not in any disastrous way, but it’s only a matter of time. To truly succeed in the Majors, he’ll need to work on quality of contact.
The good news is he has multiple tools at his disposal. Presently, he’s far too predictable when it comes to attacking the strike zone. A stint in Triple-A might have helped him to learn how to work outside of the zone effectively. Now, he’ll have to learn on the fly – though it isn’t too hard of a lesson. You’ve undoubtedly heard someone say pitching is a game of chess. In this case, Kirby telegraphs his moves which helps opponents to employ stunning counters (hard contact). As he matures, Kirby will learn to use opponents’ expectations against them.
Gabriel Moreno, 22, C, TOR (AAA)
150 PA, 1 HR, 3 SB, .324/.380/.404
Moreno is expected to join the Blue Jays lineup tonight and will instantly become the best defensive catcher on the roster. While they both have plenty of bat for the position, neither Alejandro Kirk nor Zack Collins is well-regarded defensively. Danny Jansen, who is considered a good defender, is currently sidelined with a finger injury.
Moreno began to turn heads during 2020 then parlayed his growth into an explosive 2021 when he was on the field. Unfortunately, his season ended after just 159 plate appearances. He’s nearly matched that total this year. Although he’s continued to provide above average offense, his power has wilted. In addition to the one lonesome home run, he’s hit only eight doubles.
Shane Baz, 23, SP, TBR (AAA)
13 IP, 1.38 ERA, 13.85 K/9, 2.77 BB/9
Baz, the final piece of the Chris Archer haul, made his big league debut last season. He flashed a lightning fastball and two wipeout breaking balls. An elbow injury slowed his 2022 debut. He’s made four rehab appearances in Triple-A and has been declared ready. He is scheduled to pitch on Saturday.
Although I don’t have specific velocity readings from his outings, the results seemingly speak for themselves. Baz recorded 20 strikeouts against just eight hits, four walks, and a hit batter. His most recent appearance came against a weak Brewers affiliate. He faced 18 batters and struck out 10. To preserve his health, he’ll likely face 20 or fewer batters in his upcoming outings.
Five More
MJ Melendez (23): The return of Salvador Perez has not slowed Melendez. He’s now regularly batting fifth in the lineup while playing catcher, right field, or designated hitter. Melendez has hit a healthy .271/.340/.518 with five home runs over his last 94 plate appearances.
Juan Yepez (24): Called up when the Cardinals were dealing with a stack of injuries, Yepez has cooled in recent weeks. Since May 24, he’s batting .186/.229/.256 in 48 plate appearances. Dylan Carlson’s return could result in fewer opportunities for Yepez.
Nolan Gorman (22): Despite hitting well, Gorman has fallen into a part-time role. His .288/.362/.519 line in 58 plate appearances is partly overshadowed by a 34.5 percent strikeout rate. That’s in line with his performance in Triple-A. When he does connect, he makes loud contact.
Noelvi Marte (20): Briefly considered a Julio Rodriguez-caliber international prospect, scouts have recently taken to describing Marte in more ordinary terms. Apparently, he reached physical maturity ahead of his peers. While he still seems destined to reach the Majors in short order, a superstar ceiling might prove difficult to achieve.
Roansy Contreras (22): Contreras’s 24-batter outing on June 4 was his first in the Majors in which he faced more than 20 batters. Concerns remain about the lack of changeup, but Contreras gives every appearance of being a reliable Major League contributor. Like many young pitchers, he’s allowed more hard contact than is ideal.
Blue Jays To Promote Gabriel Moreno
The Blue Jays are calling up top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno, as first reported by Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com adds that Moreno’s call-up is likely to coincide with Toronto’s upcoming weekend series in Detroit. No 40-man moves will be required to facilitate Moreno’s debut, as the young catcher was added to the team’s roster back in 2020.
Signed as an international free agent in 2016, the 22-year-old Moreno has seen his stock soar after an excellent 2021 showing. Entering the 2022 season both Baseball America and MLB.com ranked Moreno as the seventh best prospect in baseball after previously missing top prospect lists (and the 2020 season) entirely.
Through 32 games last season at Double-A, Moreno hit an otherworldly .373/.441/.651 with eight home runs and a manageable 22 strikeouts. A right thumb fracture limited the amount of regular season reps given to the Jays’ top prospect, but it didn’t stop him from receiving a promotion to Triple-A at the end of the year. An additional 100 plate appearances of .329/.410/.494 hitting in the Arizona Fall League, against older competition no less, only helped to reinforce the hype.
Moreno’s 2022 season hasn’t been quite as powerful as last season’s performance, but a .323/.377/.406 showing against Triple-A competition was clearly enough to impress Toronto’s top brass. Those 35 games will net Moreno his first big league call-up, but it remains to be seen what position he’ll be manning when the decision becomes official.
Primarily a catcher with a strong arm, Moreno has received the odd start at DH and third base in recent years to get his right-handed bat into teams’ lineups. With Alejandro Kirk producing at an elite level from behind the plate and offseason acquisition Matt Chapman locked in at third, there doesn’t appear to be a slam dunk place on the field for Moreno to helm.
Catcher Zack Collins was recalled just yesterday to fill in for injured catcher Danny Jansen (who was having a strong season in his own right), a move that perhaps signals the three catchers will shuttle between catcher and DH duties for the time being. If nothing else, Moreno’s call-up figures to place some pressure on a number of bench players and outfielders (who have seen reps at the DH position) who have underperformed offensively thus far.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Who’s Blocking Gabriel Moreno?
Going into the 2021 season, catcher Gabriel Moreno was ranked as the #8 prospect in the Blue Jays’ system by Baseball America. He finished 2019 playing A-ball, but due to the pandemic wiping out the entire minor leagues in 2020, he had yet to play at the higher levels of the minor leagues.
But in the first few months of the 2021 campaign, Moreno’s stock shot straight upwards. He started the season at Double-A and hit eight home runs in 32 games, slashing .373/.441/.651. His strikeout and walk rates were both better than average, coming in at 15.2% and 9.7%, respectively. Unfortunately, a broken thumb derailed him for a few months. He returned in September and played a couple of Complex League games, followed by three Triple-A games. In order to make up for lost time, he went to the Arizona Fall League and got into 22 games there, slashing .329/.410/.494, with an equal number of walks and strikeouts, 13 of each.
Baseball America now considers him the #1 prospect in the Blue Jays’ system, as well as #8 in all of baseball. Their scouting report highlights his eye for the strike zone, his developing power, his 41% caught stealing rate, with improved blocking and receiving. They predict Moreno, who turns 22 on Valentine’s Day, will be a future all-star who should make his MLB debut in 2022. That means the Blue Jays have a positional crunch on their hands, as Moreno is one of four catchers on the 40-man roster, with the other three all finishing the year with the big league club.
Danny Jansen, 26, made a couple of trips to the IL due to hamstring injuries but still got into 70 games in 2021. He hit 11 home runs and slashed .223/.299/.473 for a wRC+ of 105. When combined with positive marks for his defense, he was worth 1.4 wins above replacement in those 70 games, according to FanGraphs.
Alejandro Kirk, 23, also spent significant time on the IL and only got into 60 games on the year. He hit .242/.328/.436, with incredible strikeout and walk rates of 11.6% and 10.1%, respectively. His wRC+ of 106 is just a hair ahead of Jansen, but his work on the other side of the ball wasn’t graded as favorably, meaning his fWAR was only 0.7 on the year.
With Jansen and Kirk on the opening day roster in 2021, that meant there was no room for Reese McGuire. McGuire, 26, was designated for assignment, as he is out of options. He stayed with the Jays after clearing waivers and was selected back to the roster in May after Kirk went on the IL. Due to both Kirk and Jansen missing time, McGuire eventually got into 78 games, the most of the trio. He hit .253/.310./343 for a wRC+ of 78. Due to solid defensive marks, he was worth 1.3 fWAR on the year.
All of this means that the Blue Jays have decisions to make, as they are approaching a situation where they have four MLB-caliber backstops, with most clubs usually only rostering two. The team has had Moreno dabble at third base, as he played one game there at Double-A, which suggests they have at least considered the possibility of carrying three out of this group. That would still leave them with a surplus at some point, though, as none of this foursome is nearing free agency anytime soon. Danny Jansen is the closest to qualifying for the open market, but he still has three years of club control remaining.
It’s possible that the club may just want to hold onto all four, at least for the short-term. Last year, they went into spring with Jansen, Kirk and McGuire and just DFA’d McGuire once Opening Day rolled around and all three were healthy. Maybe they will just take the same approach, with Moreno getting more reps in Triple-A until either an injury creates an opening for him or he plays so well that they call him up and try to make the three-catcher scenario work.
However, there’s also the catching market to consider. This year’s crop of free agents was fairly limited and many of the stronger options have already been removed, as Yan Gomes, Manny Pina, Sandy Leon, Pedro Severino, Andrew Knapp and Roberto Perez all have new teams for 2022. For catching-needy teams, the best options available are now older veterans such as Robinson Chirinos and Kurt Suzuki.
Even the trade market has been picked over, as Jacob Stallings and Tucker Barnhart have already been shipped this offseason. Willson Contreras has been rumored to be available, especially with the Cubs signing Gomes. But Contreras is turning 30 in a few months and is entering his final year of club control, making him a different type of trade chip than the Jays’ backstops. The Athletics have reportedly considered shopping Sean Murphy. However, their highest priority in the post-lockout period will be moving their players that are closer to free agency than Murphy, who still has four years of team control remaining. Carson Kelly makes some sense as a trade candidate, but that doesn’t seem to be in the Diamondbacks’ plans. Due to that shortage of available options, it’s possible that some team might make the Blue Jays an offer strong enough that they consider subtracting from their depth.
Regardless of how it plays out, it seems to be an enviable position for the Blue Jays brass. FanGraphs’ depth charts currently rank the team second at the backstop position, trailing only the Dodgers, ahead of the J.T. Realmuto-led Phillies and the Yasmani Grandal-led White Sox. And that’s even without any contribution from Gabriel Moreno, who should be one of most interesting prospects to watch this year.
Marlins Notes: Avisail, Castellanos, Lopez, Hernandez, Blue Jays
The Marlins are intent on adding offense, and are exploring both the free agent and trade routes to accomplish this goal. On the open market, the Marlins have shown interest in Avisail Garcia (as per The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson) and they have spoken with agent Scott Boras, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Boras represents any number of top hitters in this year’s free agent market, though Heyman observes that outfielder Nick Castellanos is from Miami, even if it’s “hard to see [the Marlins] affording him.”
Using MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list as reference, we have Castellanos pegged for a five-year, $115MM deal, not to mention the additional draft pick compensation the Marlins would need to surrender since Castellanos has rejected the Reds’ qualifying offer. Garcia is projected for three years and $36MM, which much more realistic even for a Marlins team that has expressed a willingness to flex a bit more financial muscle this winter. As it happens, our Garcia estimate is pretty close to the three-year, $30MM extension offer the Marlins floated at Starling Marte last summer, so that could give some hint as to what the team is prepared to spend.
Garcia is less expensive and is a better defender than Castellanos, though Castellanos has a more consistent track record as a hitter. Garcia does happen to be coming off one of the best seasons of his career, after hitting .262/.330/.490 with a personal-best 29 homers in 515 PA with the Brewers. While Garcia alone wouldn’t elevate Miami’s lineup, Heyman believes the Marlins could “acquire multiple hitters that cost somewhat less” than one big splashy acquisition like Castellanos.
The opportunity also exists for the Marlins to trade from their pitching surplus, and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Blue Jays are one of the teams who have been in touch with Miami. Heyman identifies Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez as the Marlins’ “most available arms,” likely in the context of Lopez and Hernandez being the type of big league-ready pitchers that would appeal to a win-now team like Toronto.
Since the Jays have a catching surplus and the Marlins have a need behind the plate, Alejandro Kirk seems like a logical trade possibility, Morosi opines. Kirk may have the most trade value of any Blue Jays catcher besides star prospect Gabriel Moreno, and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes that Moreno “appears extremely unlikely” to be dealt anywhere. Toronto could also be a fit for the Marlins’ outfield needs, as Nicholson-Smith notes that the Jays have been getting a lot of interest in their catchers and outfielders at the GM Meetings.
Blue Jays Notes: Pearson, Grichuk, Moreno
Toronto’s top decision-makers talked with reporters to discuss a number of ways they hope to improve upon a 91-win club that came incredibly close to a playoff berth. While a good deal of attention has been paid to who the Blue Jays stand to lose this offseason, executives are rightfully pointing to improvement from within as a reason for optimism.
Chief among those internal improvements is getting a healthy season out of highly touted right-hander Nate Pearson. First he’ll have to recover from offseason surgery to repair a sports hernia that plagued the 25-year-old’s most recent season. Fortunately, GM Ross Atkins expects the surgery to be a blip in the pitcher’s offseason routine and won’t impact his Spring Training availability, stating “He should be fine — he should not be disrupted at all” (per Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling).
Anything resembling a full return to health for Pearson will surely be a welcome sight for Toronto brass, as the talented pitcher has tossed just 33 innings at the highest level owing to groin and elbow injuries. These recurring maladies very well may have contributed to what’s been a rough Major League tenure so far, as evidenced by a career 5.18 ERA and bloated 16.5% walk rate. Toronto will accordingly proceed with some caution, though Atkins reiterated his hope for Pearson to build his strength back up as a starter and provide “the impact of someone that can punch people out and pitch deeper and deeper into games.”
Other improvements, Atkins notes (via Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi), can come in the form of simply giving left-handed batters more playing time. For context, Toronto lefties stepped to the plate less than any other team last season, combining to produce a .653 OPS that ranked 28th in baseball. While both Atkins and president Mark Shapiro were tight-lipped about players who could help strike a better lineup balance, the latter did speak to the ability of trades that could “take an addition by subtraction.”
Speculatively, any left-handed addition could come from the trade of oft-rumored trade candidates Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk, both of whom hit from the right side. While Grichuk’s underperformance this past season (.241/.281/.423 through 149 games) — to say nothing of the remaining two years and $20.7MM on his contract — hampers his value, Davidi does note the outfielder drew interest at the most recent trade deadline. Achieving more left-handed opportunities in the lineup might not stem directly from a return in any hypothetical Grichuk trade but may be done so by simply freeing up the at-bats of a previously entrenched right-handed hitter.
The Jays also boast an enviable crop of Major League-ready catchers in their system and could subtract from this group to achieve Shapiro’s aforementioned addition. Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk provided strong offensive production from the position last year, posting nearly identical OPS marks of .772 and .764 from the right side. But either could prove expendable given the similar production of the other.
Further crowding the catching picture is the presence of prospect Gabriel Moreno, who had a huge showing in limited action at Double-A this year and continues to mash in the Arizona Fall League. Then again, farm director Gil Kim notes Moreno has done “a lot of work at third base at the Player Development Complex. While that’s not his primary position, it is an option that maybe down the road will be in play. Right now we’re focused on catching but as we’ve seen, maximizing versatility is huge.” With Moreno also batting from the right side, it’s possible his presence affects the status of other righties around the infield, like breakout infielder Santiago Espinal. Whatever transactions are made to address the Jays’ perceived lack of lineup balance and desire to build on last year’s record, the front office surely has room to maneuver with both Major League trade chips and payroll space at their disposal.
AL Notes: Blue Jays, Jansen, Moreno, Mariners, White, Mize, Skubal
Before this afternoon’s game against the Rays, the Blue Jays activated catcher Danny Jansen from the injured list and optioned Riley Adams to Triple-A. Jansen will be limited to scripted usage in the near-term, as manager Charlie Montoyo is committed to riding the hot hand of Reese McGuire for now, per Scott Mitchell of TSN Sports (via Twitter). McGuire was designated for assignment at the start of the season, and he’d have to be waived again for Toronto to take him off the active roster. He’s not going anywhere for now, however, not while he continues to hit as he has, with a .302/.350/.406 triple slash line through 104 plate appearances. That means Alejandro Kirk will remain in Triple-A for the time being, where he is currently on a rehab assignment.
More from Toronto and the rest of the American League:
- In other Blue Jays catching news, top prospect Gabriel Moreno underwent surgery on his fractured right thumb, as first reported by Future Blue Jays (and confirmed by Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). There’s no specific timetable on his return, but the young backstop will be out for multiple weeks. Moreno entered the season as one of the top catching prospects in the minors, and he’s taken his stock to another level with Double-A New Hampshire. Despite only being 21 years old, Moreno has thrived at the minors’ second-highest level, hitting .373/.441/.651 with eight homers across 145 plate appearances.
- The Mariners don’t appear particularly close to returns from either of a pair of injured regulars. There’s still no timetable on center fielder Kyle Lewis, who is recovering from a meniscus tear in his right knee, relays Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter links). Lewis isn’t eligible to return from the 60-day injured list until early August, but it doesn’t seem feasible to expect him back at that point given the vague outlook on his injury. First baseman Evan White, meanwhile, “isn’t close” to even resuming baseball activities after receiving a cortisone shot in his ailing left hip, per Divish. White is eligible to return from the 60-day IL in a little over a week, but he’s obviously going to need significantly more time than that to recover.
- The Tigers are planning to be more judicious with Casey Mize’s and Tarik Skubal’s in-start workloads in the coming weeks, writes Evan Woodbery of MLive. Detroit isn’t planning to shut down either of their prized young hurlers entirely; instead, there’ll be pre-planned quick hooks during some starts to keep their innings totals in check. The process already began during Mize’s start yesterday, as manager A.J. Hinch lifted the 24-year-old after three innings and 56 pitches against the White Sox. Mize, who threw 28 1/3 innings during last year’s shortened season, is up to 91 1/3 frames in 2021. Skubal tossed 32 innings in 2020 and is up to 82 2/3 this season after today’s five-inning outing against Chicago.