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Dodgers Have Inquired Into Ian Kinsler, Brian Dozier

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4:40pm: It may not even be that realistic for the Tigers to match up with the Dodgers, given that Kinsler can decline a trade to them and would demand an extension to do so.

Los Angeles is obviously looking in other places for a second baseman, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports notes that they have made contact with the Twins on Brian Dozier — who’d also be a quality, right-handed bat who comes with two years of control.

2:52pm: The Tigers and Dodgers have held some degree of trade talks regarding Detroit second baseman Ian Kinsler, reports MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links). The connection is an obvious on-paper fit, considering Detroit’s stated desire to pare down payroll and get younger as well as the Dodgers’ lack of a clear starter at the position. While the Kinsler talks are of course worth noting, it should also be recognized that the Dodgers are casting a wide net as they explore options, and Kinsler has a partial no-trade clause which could potentially impact talks. Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports that Kinsler is currently one of four players in whom the Dodgers have interest with regard to their vacancy at second base (Twitter link).

One prospect in whom the Tigers have interest is first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger, according to Morosi, who notes that the Tigers are seeking left-handed power. The 21-year-old Bellinger moved from Class-A Advanced to Double-A in 2016 and, in addition to hitting quite well (.263/.359/.484 with 23 homers) slashed his strikeout rate by a considerable margin (27 percent in ’15, 19.7 percent in ’16). Bellinger moved up to Triple-A for the final three games of the season and ripped another three long balls to further add to his impressive year. MLB.com currently ranks him 31st on its list of Top 100 prospects, while Baseball America rated him 24th on their midseason Top 100. Both reports rave about his defense at first base, though MLB.com points out that he’s started games in center field in the minors and has the speed and athleticism to handle a corner spot in the Majors. BA feels there’s 30-homer potential in Bellinger’s bat.

From the Dodgers’ vantage point, Kinsler is among the most natural targets imaginable for their need at second base. The 34-year-old will play next season on a reasonable $11MM salary and comes with a $10MM option for the 2018 season ($5MM buyout). In addition to having multiple years of affordable control on his deal, he’s coming off yet another excellent year in which he batted .288/.348/.484 with 28 homers and 14 stolen bases. Kinsler rated 8.5 runs above average, per Ultimate Zone Rating, and drew an even more favorable mark from Defensive Runs Saved (+12). He also chipped in strong contributions on the basepaths and, perhaps most appealing of all to L.A., mashed opposing left-handers at a .309/.369/.525 clip in 2016. That line, and Kinsler’s career .306/.372/.507 line against southpaws, have to be tantalizing to a Dodgers club that hit just .213/.290/.332 against lefties as a collective unit in 2016 — dismal enough to easily translate to a league-worst 72 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.

Certainly, though, Dodgers president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman and his staff have alternatives if they deem Detroit’s asking price too high. Friedman & Co. need only look elsewhere in the American League Central to find another highly plausible trade candidate in the form of Brian Dozier, for instance. Cincinnati’s Brandon Phillips may well come at a lower cost if he’s willing to waive his no-trade clause for the chance to play on a contending team, and Philadelphia’s Cesar Hernandez has seen his name surface in trade rumors as well. As far as free agents go, a reunion with Chase Utley seems plausible as well.

Ian Kinsler Won’t Waive No-Trade Clause Without Extension

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Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler is not interested waiving his no-trade protection unless a (hypothetical) acquiring team reaches a new contract with him, his agent Jay Franklin tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Kinsler is one of several veteran Tigers players who has come up in trade chatter this winter.

Anything is possible, but the demand for an extension would certainly gum up any trade talks between Detroit and any of the rivals who are on Kinsler’s list. He is already 34 years of age, so it isn’t as if he has mid-prime years to sell, and part of his appeal is the relatively limited commitment ($11MM in 2017 and a $10MM option for 2018) that comes with Kinsler’s contract.

Franklin didn’t leave much room for interpretation in his comments. “If one of the 10 teams happens to call and wants to talk about it, we’re open to talking about it,” he said. “[But] they’re going to have to extend him for us to waive the no-trade.” Though the player rep adds that Kinsler is most interested in playing on a winning team, it doesn’t seem as if he’ll entertain any possibilities if they don’t include more years and dollars.

The Dodgers have been rumored to have interest in Kinsler, but are one of the ten organizations to which he must approve a deal. For teams like Los Angeles, who are happy to employ veterans but strive to avoid lengthy entanglements, the demand may be a non-starter.

It’s possible to imagine that some organizations would at least be willing to consider adding to Kinsler’s guarantee — though, perhaps, they won’t be anxious to go too far or too high given his age and two existing years of control. But the need to negotiate with the player and his current team complicates things greatly, since any possible suitor would surely also be looking into alternatives.

It isn’t yet known what other teams are subject to Kinsler’s approval. With 19 teams that aren’t, it’s certainly plausible to think he could be shipped somewhere without having a say. But there are limited teams with a clear need at second base, so depending upon the makeup of the list, Kinsler’s stance could make it quite difficult for the Tigers to pull off a deal — not that the team necessarily feels compelled to do so.

AL Notes: Red Sox, Athletics, Tigers

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It seems increasingly unlikely that the Red Sox will utilize a full-time DH, as Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. “We’re not looking to have just a DH,” said president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. “I think really in today’s game the only way you really do that is to have somebody like David Ortiz and most of the time you really prefer to have some flexibility. It’s not to say somebody won’t settle in most of the time, but your goal is to use the flexibility of the players at this point. We’ll see how that all fits in.” That does leave open the possibility of a regular, of course, and some players who’d profile as a designated hitter — such as big-budget free agent Edwin Encarnacion (who has spent plenty of time recently at first) or the aging Carlos Beltran (who also plays the outfield) — could spend at least some time in the field, possibly allowing the club to slot Hanley Ramirez or others in the hitter-only hole on occasion. It is fair to wonder, too, whether any changes to the CBA — an increased luxury tax floor, if not also the addition of an active roster spot — might change the team’s thinking.

Here’s more from Boston and the rest of the American League:

  • Even if the offseason is relatively quiet from an acquisition standpoint, the Red Sox may be in a position to explore some extensions, as Tim Britton of the Providence Journal writes. For Boston, the three obvious candidates are surely shortstop Xander Bogaerts and outfielders Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. None figure to come cheap, particularly as their service clocks and stat lines have continued to build, but Britton provides some quotes from rival executives discussing the benefits and drawbacks of pursuing longer-term contracts. Scott Boras, who reps Bogaerts and Bradley, indicated that talks thus far have involved only their pending arbitration cases, and Britton says that the club has yet to seriously consider deals. But it’ll certainly be interesting to see whether discussions take place in earnest later in the offseason.
  • The Red Sox have hired Gary DiSarcina as their new bench coach to replace the outgoing Torey Lovullo, as Gerry Callahan of WEEI first reported (story via WEEI.com). A Massachusetts native, DiSarcina has previously skippered Boston’s Triple-A affiliate and has most recently been a part of the Angels’ coaching staff.
  • There’s still quite a lot to be sorted out for the Athletics this winter, and we don’t have a ton to go on in assessing the organization’s direction. But there are a pair of pieces worth looking into for fans looking for the sense of those who follow the team most closely. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle takes stock of the free agent outfield options, citing reunions with Josh Reddick and Brandon Moss as unlikely. But the organization may look to take a shot on KBO star Eric Thames, she says, while Carlos Gomez and perhaps even Austin Jackson representing possibilities in center. Meanwhile, with some chatter surrounding key veterans Sonny Grey, Steven Vogt, and Sean Doolittle, Joe Stiglich of CSNBayArea.com examines the possibility of one or more significant swaps. He suggests that Doolittle, an affordable but oft-injured power lefty, could be the most likely of that trio to change hands.
  • With the Tigers gauging trade interest in much of their roster, it’s mostly guesswork at this point as to who’s drawing the kind of interest that could lead to a deal. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets that the team has drawn hits on all of its biggest names, including second baseman Ian Kinsler, as well as underperforming starters Anibal Sanchez and Mike Pelfrey. We’ve yet to hear much in the way of clear connections between Detroit and rival organizations, though. The Dodgers think Kinsler would fit nicely in L.A., per a tweet from Jon Morosi, but the teams did not discuss the matter at the GM Meetings.

Trade Rumblings: A’s, Rangers, D-backs, Tigers, Dodgers, Rays

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While the Athletics aren’t exactly shopping any of Sonny Gray, Stephen Vogt or Sean Doolittle, they’re open-minded to trade scenarios involving the three due to the fact that they recognize the unlikeliness of competing in the next year’s AL West with this current group, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Per Rosenthal, Oakland will look to build around younger arms like Sean Manaea and Jharel Cotton, though he also notes the difficulty that presents itself when entertaining offers on Gray. Trading the 2015 Cy Young candidate when his value is at all-time low is quite problematic, as teams will be looking to buy low on the still-just-27-year-old Gray, while the A’s rightly would place a higher premium on him. Both Gray and Vogt are controllable for three more years via arbitration, while Doolittle is guaranteed a mere $6.95MM over the next two seasons and has two club options at $6MM and $6.5MM beyond that.

Some more trade rumblings from around the league…

  • Also via Rosenthal, the Rangers and Rays had extensive talks about Chris Archer, Drew Smyly and Jake Odorizzi prior to the non-waiver trade deadline this summer, and the two sides aren’t expected to renew any of those talks. Texas isn’t as aggressive on Rich Hill as other clubs either, though Rosenthal notes that they’ll still probably find a way add a mid-rotation arm or back-of-the-rotation arm at some point this winter.
  • The Diamondbacks are content to hang onto Yasmany Tomas for the time being, Rosenthal reports. The 26-year-old had a huge second half that saw him bat .294/.329/.584 with 18 homers in 258 plate appearances, boosting his season batting line to .272/.313/.508 to go along with 31 homers. However, his highly suspect defense (-16 DRS, -14 UZR), below-average OBP and poor baserunning left him as a replacement-level player in the eyes of both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. Rosenthal notes that AL teams may eventually find Tomas more attractive once players like Yoenis Cespedes and Edwin Encarnacion sign, though I’m not sure any team would jump at Tomas’ contract. He’s guaranteed $48.5MM over the next four seasons and has an opt-out clause following the 2018 campaign on his backloaded deal. In other words, if Tomas blossomed into the regular he was projected to be, he could jump ship after just two years and re-enter free agency, but if 2017 mirrors his first two years, an acquiring team would be looking at nearly $50MM for a sub-replacement-level player.
  • ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick spoke to a number of general managers at this week’s meetings to discuss the thin market for starting pitching, including Tigers GM Al Avila. Crasnick writes that the Tigers are willing to dangle Justin Verlander in trades — Avila acknowledged as much earlier this week when saying the Tigers were open-minded to virtually any trade scenario — and notes that the GM has already spoken with Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler and informed them that they should expect to see their names bandied about in trade rumors this offseason.
  • Crasnick also talked to Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi about the possibility of L.A. swinging a deal for an arm. Zaidi expressed some confidence in the depth that the team has internally before adding, “…but there’s a reason we went out and traded for Rich Hill at the deadline last year. It’s something we’re going to continue to monitor.” Zaidi’s Dodgers are indeed stacked with depth — in addition to Clayton Kershaw they have options in Julio Urias, Kenta Maeda, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, Alex Wood, Jose De Leon, Brock Stewart, Hyun-jin Ryu and Ross Stripling — which is why the GM said the team will be “fairly targeted in looking for guys who come with maximum upside to pitch at the front of the rotation.”
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the Rays left the GM Meetings with a stronger belief than they had upon arrival that they’ll trade one of Archer, Odorizzi or Smyly this winter. He adds that there’s an “outside chance” that Alex Cobb will be dealt as well, although Cobb’s return from Tommy John surgery was delayed in 2016, leaving him with a total of just 22 innings and an 8.59 ERA, so it’d be understandable if Tampa Bay feels that Cobb’s value would increase in 2017.

Ian Kinsler Diagnosed With Concussion

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Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler has been diagnosed with a concussion and will have to clear concussion protocols before he is cleared to return to the playing field, head athletic trainer Kevin Rand told reporters, including Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (links to Twitter). Kinsler suffered the concussion over the weekend when he was hit in the head by a Trevor Bauer fastball (via MLB.com’s Jason Beck).

[Related: Detroit Tigers Depth Chart]

While the injury could certainly prove to be short-term in nature — Kinsler will be tested daily — history has shown that even mild concussions can linger for lengthy periods of time. With the Tigers currently two and a half games out of a Wild Card spot as 13 games remain in the season, though, Kinsler’s absence will be a notable detriment to the team’s postseason hopes. Detroit does have the luxury of lining up against baseball’s two worst teams — the Twins and Braves — for six of those 13 remaining games, but swapping out Kinsler for Andrew Romine weakens the team’s day-to-day chances of narrowing the gap that separates them from the Orioles. Trade acquisition Erick Aybar also represents an option for manager Brad Ausmus while Kinsler is sidelined.

Kinsler is in the midst of his best offensive season since 2011, as he’s hitting .277/.335/.469 with 26 homers, 26 doubles and four triples to go along with 14 steals. He’s also playing his typical brand of elite defense at second base, as Defensive Runs Saved pegs him at +12 runs while Ultimate Zone Rating pegs him at 10 runs above average. Kinsler, 34, has one year remaining on his five-year, $85MM deal and is slated to earn $11MM next season. Detroit also holds a $10MM option on him for the 2018 campaign.

Quick Hits: Tigers, Kinsler, Dodgers, Puig

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With the Tigers in Arlington to take on the Rangers, second baseman Ian Kinsler reflected on the November 2013 trade that sent him from Texas to Detroit for first baseman Prince Fielder, whose career ended this week because of neck problems. “It’s the best thing that’s happened,” said Kinsler of the deal (via Jason Beck of MLB.com). “Toward the end of my time in Texas, things got kind of stale, so to be able to be traded to an organization like Detroit really allowed me to kind of reflect on who I was as a player and what I needed to do to improve.” The 34-year-old’s two-plus-season run with the Tigers has been a resounding success. Dating back to 2014, his first year with the club, Kinsler ranks eighth among major league position players in fWAR (13.8) and has hit .287/.331/.441 with 49 home runs in 1,906 plate appearances. Kinsler, who’s slashing a robust .291/.347/.488 with 21 homers and 13 stolen bases this season, regards Detroit as the “perfect place” for him and hopes to finish his career there. Going forward, Kinsler is due a reasonable $11MM next year and the Tigers have a $10MM club option for 2018.

More from Detroit and one other major league city:

  • Dodgers Triple-A outfielder Yasiel Puig spoke Saturday about the mini-controversy he created earlier this week after posting videos online of him and some Oklahoma City teammates drinking alcohol and shouting curse words into the camera. “I really didn’t know how to use Snapchat,” said Puig (per Doug Padilla of ESPN.com). “I was just playing around with my teammates. I just did something that was wrong.” Puig added that he believes the Dodgers demoted him to the minors to become “a better teammate,” which is his goal. On whether the Dodgers are prepared to sever their relationship with the 25-year-old Puig, manager Dave Roberts told Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, “I think that’s up to Yasiel. If he chooses to continue to grow as a baseball player and as a man, then he’d be welcome back here.”
  • The Tigers haven’t gotten great early returns on their investment in right-hander Jordan Zimmermann, whom they signed to a five-year, $110MM deal in the offseason. Not only has the ex-National posted disappointing numbers – 4.44 ERA and a career-low 5.55 K/9 in 97 2/3 innings – he’s also on the disabled list for the second time this season because of back and neck issues. “It’s been the most frustrating year of my career,” said Zimmermann (via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com) “Going on two months on the (disabled list) and we still don’t really have a true answer.” Zimmermann missed all of July and then returned to start Aug. 4, but he lasted just 1 2/3 innings and allowed six earned runs on six hits and two walks before heading back to the DL. The 30-year-old is currently making progress in his recovery, but there’s no timetable for his return, writes Woodbery.
  • Another injured starter, the Dodgers’ Rich Hill, could debut for Los Angeles next Saturday, according to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Hill, whom the Dodgers acquired from Oakland at the non-waiver trade deadline, has been out since mid-July on account of blister problems on his pitching hand. The left-hander is scheduled to make a rehab start Monday with Triple-A Oklahoma City, and he’ll join the Dodgers if that goes well. However, the Dodgers have already had to postpone his first start in their uniform twice. Hill is confident that won’t happen again, though. “It’s healed and 100 percent ready to go and I look forward to getting out there,” said the 36-year-old.

Tigers Notes: VSL, Upton, Kinsler

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The Tigers are one of the many teams to pull out of the Venezuelan Summer League, reports Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. Political instability in the region has caused the league to collapse. GM Al Avila said the Tigers would continue to maintain their Venezuelan baseball academy and will also participate in the winter-based Parallel League. Some clubs are adding a second Dominican team to develop their Latin prospects, but Detroit is planning to open a Gulf Coast League team instead.

Here’s more from the Tigers:

  • Back in August, GM Al Avila restructured the front office to create a baseball analytics department, writes James Hawkins of the Detroit News. At the club’s recent TigerFest, Avila admitted the club didn’t previously have an analytics team. He specifically referenced Statcast, a relatively new technology that tracks nearly everything that occurs on a baseball field. Technology in the game has developed to the point that no team can ignore the importance of data researchers.
  • Justin Upton may have made his first impression on scouts when he was just 13, writes Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. Upton happened to be hanging around a ball field where a group of college players needed a catcher. Upton had no experience behind the plate but fearless donned the tools of ignorance to catch much more physically mature pitchers. When older brother Melvin Upton hit the competitive circuit with players like Cameron Maybin, David Wright, and Ryan Zimmerman, the younger Upton tagged along.
  • Second baseman Ian Kinsler has made maintaining his speed a priority, writes George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press. Kinsler doesn’t want to become a bat-only player (despite rumors of 15 more DH jobs on the horizon). As such, a focus on continuing to run quickly will help him to regularly produce for the Tigers.

Blue Jays Pursued Trades For Kinsler, Anderson

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The Blue Jays almost finalized trades that would've seen them acquire Ian Kinsler from the Rangers and Brett Anderson from the Athletics earlier this winter, but both deals ended up as "near-misses," Sportsnet's Shi Davidi reports.

Kinsler, of course, was part of the offseason's biggest blockbuster to date, when he was traded to the Tigers in exchange for Prince Fielder and $30MM.  Before that deal occurred, however, the Jays' proposed swap for the second baseman fell through due to Kinsler's partial no-trade clause that allowed him to block deals to up to 10 teams.  It's unknown what the Jays would have given up for Kinsler, though I would guess it would've been on a much lesser scale than Fielder; it wouldn't have made much sense for Toronto create another hole in the lineup by dealing the likes of Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion.

The Jays had long been rumored to be suitors for Anderson and they discussed a trade with the A's that would've sent Sergio Santos to Oakland in return for the southpaw.  Anderson's extensive injury history, however, ended up dimming Toronto's interest and Anderson was instead traded to the Rockies in December.  Interestingly, the Jays also had Santos tabbed to go to the Rangers as part of a potential three-team deal in November that was scuttled when another player in the deal failed his physical.

Second base and the starting rotation were the Blue Jays' two biggest areas of need going into the offseason, so had these two would-be deals gone through, GM Alex Anthopoulos' winter shopping could have essentially been complete.  With January almost over, however, the Jays are still looking for rotation upgrades and a Ryan Goins/Maicer Izturis platoon is still penciled into the keystone position.

Reactions To The Kinsler/Fielder Blockbuster

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There's been an overwhelming amount written on last night's blockbuster trade that sent Prince Fielder and $30MM to the Rangers in exchange for second baseman Ian Kinsler and the remaining $62MM on his contract, and we'll round up reactions and ripple effects from the trade here with one more post on the mega-deal…

  • The Rangers are still willing to include Elvis Andrus or Jurickson Profar in the right trade, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal speculates on a trade that could send Andrus or Profar to St. Louis or a Profar package to entice the Rays to part with David Price.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post wonders if shedding Kinsler puts the Rangers in the market for Robinson Cano. Texas could trade Andrus or Profar and make a run at the lifetime Yankee. Sherman also points out that the move at least opens a window for Jhonny Peralta to return to the Tigers as a third baseman — a situation that wasn't possible 48 hours ago.
  • If the Tigers' new windfall allows them to lock up Max Scherzer to a multiyear contract, it'd be bad news for the Red Sox, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. That scenario decrease Jon Lester's competition on next year's free agent market, making him that much more difficult to re-sign. Bradford opines that the Sox should try to beat the Tigers to the punch and work out a new deal with Lester sooner rather than later.
  • ESPN's Buster Olney looks at the winners and losers of the trade in an Insider-only piece, noting that there are many of each. The Tigers top Olney's list of nine winners, while the 2014 Rangers come in at No. 8 on that list. Olney lists the 2016-20 Rangers as losers in the deal, noting that they'll be paying a premium for Fielder's decline. Olney spoke with three evaluators from uninvolved teams, and all three like the deal for Detroit. While the consensus is that the Tigers came out ahead, none of the three condemned the deal for Texas.
  • Olney's colleague, Keith Law, writes that in a baseball sense, he'd rather roll the dice on Fielder than Kinsler, who has shown real signs of decline (Insider subscription required). Law writes that both teams win in the sense that they can clear an everyday spot for their top prospect. While Fielder is a good bet to rebound in 2014, in Law's opinion, he's also more likely to become an overpaid player that isn't worth a roster spot than Kinsler.
  • Dave Cameron of Fangraphs loves the trade for Detroit, as they escape the burden of Fielder's contract and replace him with a player Cameron feels will post a similar WAR total in 2014. Plus, he adds, the $76MM savings would be enough to potentiall add Curtis Granderson and Joe Nathan to the fold. "Kinsler, Granderson, and Nathan, or Prince Fielder? These aren’t even close," writes Cameron.
  • Cameron also analyzed the deal from the Rangers' point of view, and while he's not as quick to heap praise on Texas, he understands the thinking and doesn't consider it a loss for the team. GM Jon Daniels found a good way to move Kinsler and add a first baseman, and opened up a hole for someone who is expected to become a very good player, says Cameron, "…But it was an expensive trade to make, and no team has unlimited resources."
  • Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet examines what the trade means for the Tigers, the Rangers, the free agent market and Scott Boras. Nicholson-Smith says that while it's easy to see why Fielder appealed to the Rangers and he makes their team better, the move is a "clear win" for Dombrowski.
  • The trade affords both team a fresh start and the ability to move on from a pair of misplaced players, writes Sam Miller of Baseball Prospectus (subscription required). While second basemen tend to age poorly and Fielder's average fly-ball distance is dropping, both can still be productive players in their new environments, says Miller.
  • Kinsler's agent, Jay Franklin, told Rosenthal that news of the trade was like "getting smoked on the left side of the head" but in a good way. Kinsler is excited for the move and says winning is the most important thing to him. While he didn't want to be traded, he could see the writing on the wall that he may not be in the team's long-term plans, writes Rosenthal.
  • MLBTR's Tim Dierkes looked at the trade earlier today and examined the multiple needs addressed for each team in the deal. He also wonders if there was a cheaper way for the Tigers to get out from Fielder's contract, such as re-signing Omar Infante and trading Fielder plus $42MM for a cheaper, more controllable player.
  • Our own Jeff Todd also weighed in on how the deal impacts the long-term payroll outlook for each team and how it impacts other aspects of the trade and free agent markets. The front-loaded nature of the Rangers' existing contract structure made the Rangers an ideal candidate to take on Fielder's deal, in Jeff's opinion.

The Market Impact Of The Fielder-Kinsler Trade

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In case you missed it — or, perhaps, thought the headlines were fantasy baseball musings rather than a real thing — the Tigers and Rangers consummated a rather substantial trade last night. The clubs swapped the big contracts owed Prince Fielder and Ian Kinsler, with $30MM also heading to Texas. In sum, then, the Rangers have added $76MM in salary, and each team has plugged a hole that it might otherwise have addressed in free agency.

While the ultimate impact on the fortunes of the two ballclubs involved will not be known for some time, the broader effects on the free agent and trade market will be sizeable and immediate. Here are some initial thoughts on what that might look like:

Reduction In Demand

 
First and foremost, both of these big-spending clubs have now filled major vacancies without a single new dollar being committed to the market. And it is entirely possible that neither of those clubs has opened a new hole through the deal, which is probably a big reason why it got done: top prospect Jurickson Profar will step in at second for Texas, while Detroit has internal options to account for its corner infield jobs (including, potentially, its own highly regarded prospect in Nick Castellanos.) If that is indeed the case, the deal is probably bad news for free agents generally, because it takes two premium, high-paying potential jobs off the market. 
 
The impact is even more pronounced because neither Kinsler nor, especially, Fielder were sure things to be dealt this off-season. And tens of millions of dollars figured to be spent on the spots that each will now occupy. The point shouldn't be overstated — after all, Kinsler could well have ended up taking over at first for Texas, and there are still plenty of openings to be filled — but it will have some impact, especially when it comes time for agents to play serious bidders off of one another to drive high prices or prop up low ones. After already seeing international free agents take away possible new homes, guys like Omar Infante and Mike Napoli probably have lost a potential landing spot, and with it some leverage.
 
Except For Corner Outfielders?
 
On the other hand, one particular group of free agents could stand to benefit: top corner outfielders. Both the Tigers and Rangers entered the off-season with a need at the corner outfield, as MLBTR's Steve Adams and Charlie Wilmoth respectively explained. Now, those clubs have found a way to address one need without coming out of their collective pocket. In theory, that should mean more money is free on the market to be spent on outfielding needs.
 
Enhancing the impact is the fact that multiple mid-tier options — Marlon Byrd, David DeJesus and David Murphy — have already come off the board at fairly substantial prices, setting a high floor. And those signings may not have drastically reduced demand: the Phillies could well still be in on top outfielders, and the Indians were, as Charlie noted, far from certain to spend at the corner outfield coming into the off-season (meaning that Murphy does not really take an obvious, pre-existing landing spot away from free agents). Four of the top twenty open-market players (per MLBTR's Tim Dierkes) are expected to defend the flanks of the outfield, and that already-well-regarded group could see a boost.
 
A potential corner outfield boom probably requires the Fielder-Kinsler dancemates actually to be buyers in that market. Having made a deal out of left field, are these two clubs now more or less likely — as a practical matter — to spend on left field? While there are arguments in both directions, I think both Texas and Detroit will keep the wallets open for the corners.
 
You might pencil in the Tigers to apply their cash windfall to a Max Scherzer extension instead. But with a roster begging for another shot or three at a World Series victory, the organization seems relatively unconcerned with limiting short-term payroll. (Indeed, this deal will not help Detroit much in that regard.) Instead, the payroll flexibility needed by GM Dave Dombrowski and co. is in the long run: Fielder promised to be a major drag and an impediment to keeping players like Scherzer and Miguel Cabrera in Motown. But the Tigers should have little problem keeping free future cash for Scherzer while still aggressively pursuing Torii Hunter's mirror image in left field — a strong veteran who figures to land a short- or mid-length deal.
 
Of course, nothing is decided, and Dombrowski could chase a third baseman or keep Cabrera there while deploying Castellanos in the outfield. But the thin market at the hot corner and Miggy's recent injuries, age, and defensive limitations keep the smart money on a new addition in left.
 
Meanwhile, the Rangers added salary, which would seem to be a significant drag on outfield spending. But the net payroll impact of $76MM is less than the team would have likely committed to a premium free agent, and the cost was a player that had become expendable. More importantly, because the length of Fielder's deal is the biggest factor in the cost difference, the added dollars mostly impact the payroll further down the line. The Rangers were one of those clubs whose future obligations were fairly front-loaded, making the salary flip relatively easy to stomach in the long run. And in the short run, Texas should remain just about as flexible as it was already.
 
With first base filled, the corner outfield and catcher are the two clear areas where GM Jon Daniels can most easily add value over the in-house options. Indeed, Daniels noted that the club still intends to add another bat. With the aforementioned Murphy now in Cleveland, the Rangers may at this point be even more likely to spend in the outfield than they were before the deal, when a shift of Kinsler to left was at least a hypothetical possibility.
 
Shifting Trade Winds
 
This unexpected blockbuster could also impact several other rumored swaps. With Fielder's remaining seven years off the books, extending (or re-signing) Scherzer now looks a lot more feasible from Detroit's perspective. Indeed, Dombrowski acknowledged that keeping the newly-minted Cy Young winner is now "more possible going forward." As MLBTR's Zach Links noted, that makes speculation that Scherzer might be dealt seem less plausible. 
 
Further, a major premise of the rumors linking the Rangers to star trade chips like David Price and Giancarlo Stanton was the possibility of packaging Profar, a centerpiece that few other organizations could match. But with his name now scratched into the middle infield dirt at Arlington, Texas may no longer have the trump card — or, perhaps more importantly, the desire and ability to deal from depth — that made it a seeming market-driver for premium trade acquisition targets. (Of course, even if Profar's new starting gig has some impact on Tampa's ability to drive up the trade value of Price, the lack of a competing front-line starter in Scherzer would more than compensate.)
 
Finally, with Kinsler finding a new home in a pretty unexpected place, teams that might have targeted him as a keystone option will have to look elsewhere. Of course, as Dave Cameron of Fangraphs notes, Howie Kendrick and Brandon Phillips still seem available by trade. So there is only the slightest silver lining here for Infante, who as Zach reported will not return to Detroit. If the Yankees bring back Robinson Cano, as expected, the market may be devoid of big-spending, win-now competitors for his services.
 
Ultimately, there is little question that yesterday's trade will have major ripple effects on how the puzzle pieces end up falling in place. While it is impossible to forecast with any confidence exactly what the impact will be, this deal makes for a fascinating shift of the market at the outset of the off-season.

 
Franchise Alteration
 
Finally, while I will not offer any take on the merits of the deal for the two teams involved, I would like to offer some further perspective on its impact to their balance sheets. In some ways, the clubs have swapped positions in terms of future financial obligations. With $30MM reportedly set to head south over 2016-20 (presumably, in equal installments), the deal results in the following changes to the clubs' respective guaranteed contract obligations from 2015 onward (information courtesty of Cot's Baseball Contracts):
 
DET v TEX
 
To visualize the shifts, look at these charts of the future commitments:
 
DET
 
TEX

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