Jake Arrieta

NL Notes: Nationals, Hamilton, Stanton, Brewers

By Jeff Todd | December 9, 2017 at 12:35am CDT

The Nationals are checking over the market for starters, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). While the team’s potential targets aren’t yet clear, Rosenthal does list two interesting options, both of whom were among the names we floated as hypothetical candidates in our review of the Nats’ offseason outlook. Gerrit Cole of the Pirates could be a name to watch on the trade market, says Rosenthal. And the Nationals are “kicking around” a pursuit of free agent Jake Arrieta, per the report. Certainly, the club’s numerous dealings with Scott Boras make that possible match one to keep an eye on. It’s certainly still possible the Nationals will go in any number of different directions in filling out their rotation, though the report does suggest the team shouldn’t be ruled out for a significant addition.

Here’s more from the National League:

Billy Hamilton is generating the most interest of any potential Reds trade pieces, Rosenthal also reports. Hamilton, obviously, is a limited offensive player due to a lack of power and on-base skills, but his baserunning and defensive skills are among the game’s elite. If the Reds do ultimately find an offer to their liking for Hamilton — he’s arb-eligible for two more years and projected to earn $5MM next season by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz — Rosenthal writes that they’d likely sign a short-term stopgap in center field rather than play a corner option out of position.
Both the Giants and Cardinals are now out of the running to land Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins, but their pursuits still carry some information worthy of note. In the case of San Francisco, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports (Twitter links) that many of the players rumored to have been in the teams’ agreed-upon trade package were not, in fact, slated to be moved. None of Joe Panik, Tyler Beede, Chris Shaw, Heliot Ramos, and Christian Arroyo would have been dealt, per the report. Meanwhile, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that the Cards would have absorbed about $250MM of the $295MM still owed to Stanton.
Brewers GM David Stearns chatted with the team’s beat writers, including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, in advance of the Winter Meetings. Regarding the team’s rotation needs, Stearns says that the organization’s “market and history” under his stewardship are “a better indicator of the types of moves we’re seeking than some of the external speculation.” That seemingly hints that the organization won’t be chasing high-end free agents, though perhaps some of the top pitchers could still be considered in the right circumstances. He noted that lefty Josh Hader could yet end up “in a multi-inning relief role, similar to last year, or a more conventional starter role.” While the team wants to ensure Hader is able to “accumulate innings,” its winter moves could dictate his precise usage. Generally, Stearns said the club has many talks at various stages of development, though nothing that is nearing completion as of this particular moment.

Jeff Bridich On Rockies’ Offseason Plans

By Jeff Todd | December 5, 2017 at 10:30pm CDT

Rockies GM Jeff Bridich chatted with Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post about the status of his club’s offseason efforts. You’ll certainly want to read the article in its entirety, but we’ll discuss a few pertinent aspects here:

Payroll is always a key consideration, of course, and Bridich says the team expects to operate at similar levels as it did in 2017, when it opened with just shy of $130MM on the books. As Saunders notes, the end-of-season number crept higher, though presumably the front office will attempt to keep some powder dry for possible mid-season acquisitions. That still seems to leave quite a bit of room to work with, as the team presently is only committed to about $90MM of salary once anticipated arbitration payouts are factored in. The interview did not touch upon considerations of extensions for existing players, but that could also impact the team’s willingness to take on long-term commitments in free agency. With core players like Charlie Blackmon, D.J. LeMahieu, and Nolan Arenado nearing the open market, it’ll be interesting to see whether there’s an effort to lock them up for the long haul.
Bullpen and backstop remain the areas of focus, says Bridich. That’s no surprise given the indications already given to date; indeed, in MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook piece on the Rox, we highlighted these two spots and ticked through some of the possibilities. Bridich acknowledges that the team remains engaged with Greg Holland — who served as the closer in 2017 — and confirms that the team has “investigated” top free agent closer Wade Davis. It’s notable that the typically tight-lipped Bridich has made clear that the team is playing at the top of the relief market. It’ll certainly be interesting to see whether the club can lure either of those arms to Denver, but it’s also worth noting that Bridich says trade options are on the table.
There’s likely a need for greater relief depth, too, and both free agency and trade could offer opportunities. There’s no “magic number” of bullpen pieces that the team seeks to add, says Bridich, but he says “there is a possibility of multiple additions to the pen.”
Behind the dish, it isn’t just a matter of chasing a return for Jonathan Lucroy — though Bridich says that’s still an option, as has previously been reported. He tells Saunders that he’s looking at “some potential catchers that are with teams that we have had some interest in over the years,” so it seems trade possibilities are in play. Per the report, Bridich acknowledged at least an awareness of the potential for Yasmani Grandal to be available, though of course it’s open to question whether the division-rival Dodgers would be amenable to sending him to a direct competitors.
Bridich discussed the possibility of finding a new bat, suggesting that’s on the list but of lesser urgency. It still seems likely that the club will end up making some kind of addition at first base, but it is far from certain that it’ll be an everyday option since there are certainly some options on hand both there and in the corner outfield. Starting pitching is another consideration, though it too is evidently not seen as a key for the winter. The club has been linked to Jake Arrieta, though it’s possible that was mostly just due diligence.
Saunders writes that the health of David Dahl is an important consideration to the corner mix. Dahl, who is still just 23 years of age, showed tons of promise in his debut in 2016, when he turned in 237 plate appearances of .315/.389/.500 hitting. But he missed all of last season and remains a bit of a wild card at this point. He is only just readying to begin swinging, though that’ll happen soon and could begin to give the team an idea of just how much it can count on him in 2018. Bridich did say the team “really [doesn’t] know” whether Dahl’s back problems will linger for the long term, though he adds that “things are looking good now.”

Cafardo’s Latest: Stanton, Arrieta, JBJ, Zimmermann

By Connor Byrne | November 25, 2017 at 3:55pm CDT

The latest on Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton comes from the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, who reports that the Red Sox currently have “tepid” interest in the NL MVP. Notably, Miami isn’t enamored of Boston’s farm system, per Cafardo, though he notes that the Marlins’ main motivation in trading Stanton would be to rid themselves of his contract. As such, one shouldn’t rule out Stanton to the Red Sox if they’re willing to take on a significant portion of the $295MM coming his way over the next decade.

While it’s unclear how much of Stanton’s deal the Red Sox would be open to absorbing, the Giants are “willing to take on a lot” of it, Cafardo writes. The Giants have shown more interest than anyone else in Stanton, Cafardo hears, and he adds that they’re prepared to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the fourth straight year if necessary. As of now, they and the Cardinals are the only known teams that have submitted offers to the Marlins to acquire Stanton.

Quick Hits: Arrieta, Hosmer, Mets

By Kyle Downing | November 25, 2017 at 11:32am CDT

Cubs free agent Jake Arrieta figures to offer more “feast-or-famine probability” than any other free agent on the market, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com posits. Arrieta has exhibited a number of troubling trends since his dominant Cy Young campaign back in 2015. Kramer points out that the right-hander’s rate of hard contact allowed was once among the the lowest in baseball, but has since fallen to the middle of the pack. Arrieta has also lost 3 MPH on his fastball from 2015 to 2017; pitchers in their thirties typically don’t regain that velocity. Kramer digs even deeper, looking at Arrieta’s “topped ball” rate (balls hit directly into the ground), noting that his rate in this category has also dropped. These factors in tandem create a confusing and concerning picture when looking at the value Arrieta could provide over the next couple of years. It’s not all bad; Kramer also notes that the former Cy Young winner hasn’t lost his ability to put batters away on two-strike pitches, and he’s still got an excellent pitch repertoire to go along with a delivery that provides deception. Teams exploring a deal with Arrieta will face an interesting dilemma in trying to project his future performance.

Other items from around MLB…

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs has released his top five free agent bargains, as well as his top five free agent landmines. Royals free agent Eric Hosmer tops the list of players Cameron would avoid at the prices they’re likely to command. He points out that Hosmer’s 2017 was partially driven by his .351 BABIP, which the first baseman is unlikely to repeat, and questions his defensive abilities as well. Interestingly, Cameron points out that Hosmer’s 120 wRC+ over the past three seasons is just two points ahead of Carlos Santana’s mark across that same span, and yet Hosmer is expected to more than double Santana’s earnings in free agency this winter. None of this is to say that Hosmer isn’t a great asset, but many in the industry think he’ll be paid like a potential franchise superstar, and his track record doesn’t necessarily provide a strong case for that level of commitment. Greg Holland, Lance Lynn, Eduardo Nunez and Andrew Cashner round out Cameron’s top five free agent landmines, while Carlos Santana, Lorenzo Cain, Tommy Hunter, Jarrod Dyson and Doug Fister comprise Cameron’s top five bargains. The pieces are full of great analysis and will give readers another interesting set of storylines to track this offseason.
Mike Puma of the New York Post wonders whether the Mets would be best served to bring back second baseman Neil Walker, whom the club traded to the Brewers this past August. Though he spent a significant amount of time on the DL for the second straight season, his 2017 home run total (14) homers and OBP (.409) would be a welcome asset to a Mets club with a number of issues to tackle before opening day 2018. Puma also notes that the Mets are exploring some trade options at second base as well. Interestingly, he lists Jason Kipnis as a name he believes to be available, along with more obvious trade candidates in Ian Kinsler and Dee Gordon.

Brewers Reportedly Showing Interest In Jake Arrieta

By Steve Adams | November 20, 2017 at 10:24am CDT

With Jimmy Nelson set to miss a portion of the 2018 season following shoulder surgery, the Brewers are eyeing top-end rotation upgrades and showing some early interest in Jake Arrieta, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi.

Arrieta, 32 March, is a familiar commodity for the Brewers, who have watched him star for the Cubs for nearly four full seasons. While Milwaukee doesn’t typically play at the top of the free-agent market, we explained here at MLBTR recently that the Brewers are in an uncharacteristically strong position to spend given their lack of long-term payroll commitments and given that some more traditionally big-spending teams aren’t likely to pursue top-line starters.

The Brewers have just north of $32MM committed to the 2018 payroll, plus another $22.7MM in arbitration projections, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. They have similar commitments (in terms of guaranteed multi-year deals) lined up for the 2019 season, and the 2020 books have only Ryan Braun’s $16MM salary guaranteed. Milwaukee, then, could easily afford to add a hefty multi-year contract, even if meant committing upwards of $25MM annually.

Beyond the sheer financial plausibility, there’s a clear need in the Milwaukee rotation. Nelson broke out as the team’s top starter this season but will miss a fairly significant chunk of the 2018 season, per the Brewers, though the team won’t estimate precisely how long he’ll be out just yet. Beyond him, the recently extended Chase Anderson and fellow righty Zach Davies are the only two rotation locks. Brent Suter, Brandon Woodruff, Josh Hader and Junior Guerra are among the team’s top internal candidates to fill out the rotation while Nelson mends.

Milwaukee’s rebuild accelerated considerably in 2017 as Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Travis Shaw and Domingo Santana all put together breakout years while top prospects Hader, Woodruff and Lewis Brinson all proved to be on the cusp of MLB readiness. Orlando Arcia took hold of the team’s shortstop job (though there’s still room for improvement), while Eric Thames enjoyed a productive overall year in his first season back in the big leagues after an excellent run in the Korea Baseball Organization.

All of those positive signs now have the Brewers in position to vie for an NL Central title next season, which should prompt the front office to be more willing to spend than it has been in recent years. We’ve not yet seen a David Stearns-led front office play the role of an aggressive offseason shopper on either the free-agent or trade market thus far, but it seems reasonable to expect that the Brewers will make a number of win-now moves this offseason. On our annual top 50 free agent projections, MLBTR predicted that Arrieta would land in Milwaukee.

Arrieta did reject a $17.4MM qualifying offer from the Cubs, meaning he’d cost the Brewers their third-highest selection in next year’s draft. As of last week, we know that to be the team’s Competitive Balance Round B pick — No. 74 overall. The Cubs, meanwhile, would receive a compensatory pick after Comp Round B, assuming Arrieta signs a deal for more than $50MM guaranteed (which seems like a foregone conclusion).

All 9 Recipients Reject Qualifying Offer

By Steve Adams | November 16, 2017 at 4:16pm CDT

THURSDAY: Officially, all nine players have rejected their qualifying offers and become free agents, the MLBPA has announced (h/t Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, on Twitter).

MONDAY: All nine of the free agents that received a one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offer will reject that offer in favor of free agency, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports writes. Each of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Greg Holland and Carlos Santana will turn down that one-year opportunity in search of a multi-year pact in free agency.

In doing so, that group of nine will also subject themselves to draft-pick compensation and position their former clubs to recoup some value in next year’s amateur draft should they sign elsewhere. Last offseason’s new collective bargaining agreement altered the specifics of that compensation, tying the draft picks received and surrendered largely to the luxury tax threshold, revenue sharing and the size of the contract signed by the free agent in question.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained which draft picks each of the six teams that issued a qualifying offer would receive, should their free agents sign elsewhere, as well as which picks all 30 teams would be required to surrender if they are to sign a qualified free agent. Prior to that, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk provided a more comprehensive and in-depth overview of the new QO system, for those that are unfamiliar or would like a refresher on the finer details.

It’s been reported for quite some time that Kansas City will make a strong effort to retain Hosmer. Heyman added over the weekend that the Royals will also push to keep Moustakas but feel that Cain is almost certain to land elsewhere on the open market. The Rockies are known to have interest in re-upping with Holland on a multi-year deal, and Heyman notes within today’s column that the Rays “understand [Cobb] is out of their reach financially” and will sign elsewhere. He also adds that Davis seems to be likelier than Arrieta to return to Chicago.

It’s unlikely that there will be any formal announcements just yet. Among the changes to the QO system under the 2017-21 CBA was that QO recipients would have 10 days, rather than seven, to determine whether to accept or reject the offer. The deadline to issue QOs was last Monday, so the recipients still technically have until this coming Thursday to formally declare their intention. But, barring a last-minute freak injury it seems that each of the nine will go the widely expected route and enter free agency in search of the most substantial contracts in their respective careers.

Twins Looking At Top-Tier Free Agent Pitchers

By Jeff Todd | November 14, 2017 at 10:19am CDT

The Twins are taking an aggressive stance to open free agency, according to a report from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. It seems the Minnesota organization is slated to engage at the top echelon of the pitching market.

We’ve heard chatter previously about the Twins investing in an arm, but this news seemingly takes the interest to another level. Per Heyman, the front office is at least “looking at” top free-agent hurlers Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, with a “slightly higher evaluation” of the former. Not only that, but the club is said to be “investigating” the best relievers available, including Wade Davis and Greg Holland.

Just how much cash the Twins will pour into the open market remains an open question. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explained, though, the organization not only seems ready to contend in a vulnerable AL Central, but has plenty of open future payroll space. That makes it plausible, albeit hardly certain, to imagine the Twins playing in a segment of free agency that is normally off limits.

It’s not difficult to see why these particular pitchers would be of interest. Minnesota is clearly in need of at least one more quality starter and has an obvious opening at the back of the bullpen. As ever, though, getting the players with the greatest pedigree could mean taking uncomfortable amounts of financial risk.

In this case, the expectation remains that Darvish and Arrieta will receive robust interest. MLBTR’s top 50 list features both among the top four players available, with $100MM or more in likely earnings. Meanwhile, Davis and Holland both warranted inclusion at the back of the top ten, with MLBTR predicting four-year deals for each (at $60MM and $50MM, respectively).

There’s always some possibility that markets won’t develop as anticipated, of course. And patience can pay off in free agency. It’ll be interesting to see, then, whether the Twins go chasing these top hurlers out of the gates or instead take a somewhat more opportunistic approach. The club does have interest in second-tier starters and relievers, Heyman notes. It seems possible that such hurlers could be targeted for value early or that the Twins could hold back and see if a particularly enticing opportunity arises over the course of the winter.

Latest On Cardinals’ Pitching Pursuits

By Steve Adams | November 13, 2017 at 12:35pm CDT

The Cardinals are known to be looking for a significant bat to insert into the middle of their lineup this offseason, but FanRag’s Jon Heyman writes that they’re also exploring various means of landing a top-notch starter as well. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak met with agents Joel Wolfe and Adam Katz of the Wasserman agency last night, per Heyman. Wasserman represents slugger Giancarlo Stanton (another reported Cardinals target), but Yu Darvish is the agency’s top free agent this winter, and Heyman reports that the meeting between the two sides was about pitching.

It’s not clear how much of a focus Darvish was in their meeting, of course. Wasserman has a large portfolio of clients, and the Cardinals also plan to use the GM Meetings to discuss bullpen upgrades, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch. Wasserman represents both Brandon Morrow and Addison Reed, for instance (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Agency Database), both of whom stand out as on-paper targets for the Cardinals.

Heyman writes that St. Louis could well emerge as a serious player for either Darvish or fellow righty Jake Arrieta, but the team’s front office prefers to explore the trade market before aggressively diving into the free-agent waters. Of course, there won’t exactly be an abundance of top-level arms available on the market. There aren’t many (if any) available trade candidates that could pitch at the front of a contender’s rotation. Chris Archer is an oft-speculated candidate, but there’s never been any real indication that the Rays are open to moving him and Heyman suggests Tampa Bay has no interest in doing so at this time. (With four years at a total of $33.75MM remaining on his deal, that’s hardly a surprise.)

With the Cardinals looking to make a splash both on the offensive side of the spectrum and potentially in the rotation, there are any number of routes the team can pursue. If the lack of available arms causes the club to circle back to free-agent rotation options, Mozeliak and his staff could look to use a sizable crop of young outfielders and young-but-inexperienced starters to then acquire a bat (e.g. Stanton, Jose Abreu) on the trade market. Magneuris Sierra, Harrison Bader, Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty all figure to have varying levels of appeal to other teams, as would young righties Alex Reyes, Jack Flaherty and Luke Weaver (though Weaver’s strong 2017 performance may take him off the table).

Alternatively, St. Louis could utilize that stockpile of young talent to pry a less obvious rotation piece away from another club and devote some of its available resources to a free agent such as J.D. Martinez or Eric Hosmer.

The Cardinals, it seems, are largely focused on making a significant addition or two, but it’s common for clubs to use this time of year to explore many different paths as they look to construct a contending roster. The Cardinals’ $1 billion television contract is about to start, which could make it easier for the team to stomach the addition of a large contract (via free agency or trade), and the aforementioned group of young talents only represents a portion of the names they could utilize to pique the interest of other clubs. Given the myriad decisions with which they’re faced, the Cards figure to be one of the most influential teams in determining the overall landscape of the 2017-18 offseason for all 30 MLB clubs.

Twins, Brewers Enter Offseason In Position To Spend

By Steve Adams | November 9, 2017 at 9:06am CDT

Each year, our top ranking of the top 50 free agents and their projected contracts/destinations prompts many to raise an eyebrow. In the now five years that I’ve spent contributing to that behemoth of a post, though, I’m not sure I can recall a more unpopular pick with readers than the notion that Jake Arrieta could sign with the Brewers for what would be the largest free-agent signing in Milwaukee’s franchise history. The notion that the Brewers would win a bidding war isn’t one to which most are accustomed. Milwaukee signed Matt Garza to a four-year, $50MM contract prior to the 2014 season and has, at times, played in the second tier of free agency. But the Brewers are among baseball’s smallest markets, and placing Arrieta there admittedly felt odd even for us.

The question we kept asking, however, is: Why should it? The Brewers are one of two teams we kept coming back to that are in a position to act in a manner in which we’ve never really seen them act before. The other is just a five-hour drive to the west, in Minneapolis. I’m not suggesting that it’s a slam dunk that we’ll see the Brewers and Twins shatter their longstanding small-market perception; however, there’s an argument to be made for both teams to give serious consideration to spending far more aggressively this winter than they have in years past.

The 2017 season was a similar tale for both the Brewers and the Twins. Each club was largely written off heading into the 2017 season as they sought to continue rebuilding with an eye more toward 2018 and beyond than toward 2017. Last winter, the Twins’ biggest expenditure was a $24.5MM contract for veteran catcher Jason Castro. The Brewers spent $16MM on KBO reclamation project Eric Thames. The moves were not met with excessive fanfare.

But both the Brewers and Twins saw the majority of their young, potential core pieces take a step forward. Travis Shaw and Domingo Santana broke out with three-win seasons in Milwaukee, while Thames made good on his investment. Jimmy Nelson, Chase Anderson and Zach Davies led a surprisingly strong rotation, and Corey Knebel announced his presence as one of the best relievers on the planet.

Over in Minnesota, Byron Buxton rebounded from a terrible start and batted .274/.333/.452 over his final 459 PAs with elite defense. Miguel Sano hit 28 homers in 114 games before a stress reaction from a foul ball to the shin cut his season short. Eddie Rosario belted 26 homers, Jorge Polanco posted a 128 wRC+ in the second half, and Jose Berrios established himself as a useful big league starter. Joe Mauer even quietly rebounding to hit .305/.384/.417 (116 wRC+).

Suddenly, both teams look like potential contenders not just in 2018 but for the foreseeable future. The Twins share a division with the rebuilding White Sox and Tigers. The Royals are set to lose Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas to free agency after already having bid adieu to Wade Davis and Greg Holland in recent years. In 2018, at least, the AL Central outlook is promising for the Twins and the Indians.

Milwaukee will have to deal with the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates in 2018, but the Bucs had a tough season and will soon have to seriously entertain trade offers for both Andrew McCutchen (a free agent next winter) and Gerrit Cole (a free agent the following offseason). The Cardinals are expected to radically alter their roster after a pair of disappointing seasons. The Cubs have work to do on the pitching front. Any of those teams could contend next year.

One advantage that both the Brewers and Twins have over their division rivals, though, is a largely blank payroll slate moving forward. Even after arbitration projections, the Twins have just $85.5MM on the books for the 2018 season. After the coming year, that commitment drops to $24MM. Minnesota doesn’t have a single dollar committed to the books in 2020.

It’s an even more favorable situation in Milwaukee (at least as far as 2018 is concerned). The Brewers have just $55MM committed payroll (including arbitration projections) and $31.5MM of guaranteed cash on the 2019 books. The recent extension of Chase Anderson gives them club options over the right-hander for the 2019-20 seasons, and Milwaukee also holds a 2020 option on Thames. Ryan Braun is the only guaranteed contract on the 2020 ledger, and his front-loaded deal will call for just a $16MM salary that season. That wide-open payroll was a large reason that the Brewers were connected to Justin Verlander on the summer trade market; the injury to Jimmy Nelson perhaps only adds impetus to the pursuit of a significant hurler.

Further working in the favor of both traditionally low-payroll clubs is the fact that many of the big-market teams that typically dominate free agency are either taking a step back on spending in 2017-18 or figure to focus their spending on areas other than the Twins and Brewers, who both need pitching help. It’s possible to imagine scenarios where the best pitchers don’t generate feverish bidding frenzies — perhaps allowing surprise suitors to participate in the market in a more measured way than the Diamondbacks did with their sudden and massive outlay for Zack Greinke.

The Yankees, for instance, have bluntly stated that they plan to get under the luxury tax barrier in advance of the 2018-19 mega crop of free agents (featuring Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Charlie Blackmon, Clayton Kershaw, Craig Kimbrel and many others). The Red Sox’ primary focus seems like it’ll be on adding a significant bat to the lineup rather than adding arms. The Giants have often played at the top of the free-agent market, but they’re already on the cusp of the luxury tax threshold before making a single move. The Angels have money to spend but have already committed to Justin Upton and still need to add a pair of infielders. The Tigers won’t spend much this winter as they kick off an aggressive rebuild. The Rangers are attempting to scale back their payroll by $10MM or so. The Nationals surpassed the luxury tax line in 2017 and already have a pair of $25MM+ annual salaries in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.

There will still be large-market teams looking to spend, of course. The Cubs need to add at least two arms in the rotation and could conceivably target as many as three bullpen additions. The Dodgers have reportedly been aiming to gradually pare back the payroll but of course still figure to spend some money this offseason, even if this current front-office regime hasn’t made a habit of top-level free-agent expenditures. Even the Phillies, once one of the team’s highest-payroll clubs prior to this rebuild, could begin throwing some dollars around this winter now that several of their own young players (e.g. Rhys Hoskins, Aaron Nola, Aaron Altherr, Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams) are showing promise at the big league level with others on the cusp.

That said, the Twins and Brewers nonetheless find themselves in the unique position of having pristine long-term payroll outlooks with a burgeoning young core carving out its foothold in the Majors. With several big-market teams likely to eschew massive contracts, they’ll have the opportunity to perhaps be unusually competitive when it comes to names for whom they’d traditionally be outbid. None of this is to say that Minnesota or Milwaukee should be considered the odds-on favorites to sign a Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, but it stands to reason that both could consider those types of moves far more closely than we’re traditionally accustomed to seeing. In fact, as I was finishing writing this piece, FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported that the Twins are indeed expected to consider a run at top-tier names like Darvish, Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn. And Brewers owner Mark Attanasio told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel in late September that the team’s financial flexibility may allow it to “punch a little bit above [its] weight.”

Trades will, as ever, factor into the decision-making process for both clubs this winter. Each still has a number of intriguing prospects despite the significant amount of graduations in recent years, and there’s something to be said for pursuing a controllable arm from the Rays, Pirates or Cardinals — organizations that possess multiple intriguing young pitchers that could conceivably be dangled on the trade market this offseason. However, those markets figure to be ultra-competitive, and part of the way in which the Twins and Brewers got to their current standpoint was by stockpiling young prospects and filling out their roster with that talent. Maintaining a quality pipeline of high-upside talent will remain a priority in both markets.

All of which leads back to the idea that the Twins, who haven’t topped $110MM in payroll since 2011, and Brewers, who have never opened the season with even a $105MM payroll, could be more aggressive than any would expect based on history. Some will roll their eyes at the notion, and it may prove in the end that neither lands a top-ranked free agent, but both Milwaukee and Minnesota are in excellent position to alter their image this offseason if they find an opportunity to their liking.

Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 6 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

By Tim Dierkes | November 8, 2017 at 4:30pm CDT

Six different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter. Assuming the nine players turn down the one-year, $17.4MM offer, here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.

Cubs

The Cubs made qualifying offers to right-handers Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis. The Cubs were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, regardless of the size of the contracts Arrieta and Davis sign, the Cubs will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.

Cardinals

The Cardinals made a qualifying offer to starter Lance Lynn. Like the Cubs, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Regardless of the amount Lynn signs for, the Cardinals will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.

Royals

The Royals made qualifying offers to center fielder Lorenzo Cain, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and third baseman Mike Moustakas. The Royals were a revenue sharing recipient. If any of their three free agents sign for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the Royals get draft pick compensation after the first round. For any of the three that signs for less than $50MM, the Royals get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B. MLBTR projects all three players to sign for well over $50MM, so the Royals should have a very favorable draft pool in 2018, potentially adding three picks in the top 35 or so if all three sign elsewhere.

Rays

The Rays made a qualifying offer to right-hander Alex Cobb. They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rockies, and Indians. However, Cobb is a borderline free agent when it comes to a $50MM contract, in our estimation. The team will be rooting for him to reach that threshold, as the Rays would then net a compensatory pick after the first round. If Cobb falls shy of that total guarantee, the Rays will receive an extra pick after Comp Round B.

Rockies

The Rockies made a qualifying offer to closer Greg Holland. They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Indians. Holland, too, is a borderline $50MM free agent, though he certainly figures to aim higher than that in the early stages of free agency. If he reaches $50MM+, the Rox will get a pick after the first round. If not, they’ll receive a pick after Comp Round B.

Indians

The Indians made a qualifying offer to first baseman Carlos Santana. They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Rockies. Santana is another borderline $50MM free agent in our estimation, but it’s certainly possible he clears that threshold and nets Cleveland a pick after the first round.

So, the Cubs and Cardinals already know where their draft-pick compensation will land if their qualified free agents sign elsewhere: after Competitive Balance Round B, which currently starts with pick No. 76. The Royals, Rays, Rockies, and Indians will all be rooting for their free agents to sign for at least $50MM, granting them compensation after the first round, which begins with pick No. 31.

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