The Marlins Are Still Facing Questions In Their Outfield
The Marlins came into 2023 with a fairly unsettled outfield mix, despite not making any external additions. The club planned to move Jazz Chisholm Jr. off second base in order to take over the center field job that they had been trying to fill for years. Veterans Jorge Soler and Avisaíl García were both coming off disappointing seasons, while a batch of younger player were still looking to establish themselves at the major league level.
Almost one month into the season, the Fish are swimming at a decent pace so far. They are currently 12-12, though with a -37 run differential that suggests they might be a bit lucky to be at that level. Then again, it’s still early and they’ve had a challenging schedule, with all of their games coming against teams that came into the season as surefire contenders or borderline ones (Seven against the Mets, three each against the Twins, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Giants and Guardians, two against Atlanta).
How are their outfielders faring so far? Let’s take a quick look at each one.
Chisholm hit .254/.325/.535 in 60 games last year for a wRC+ of 139 before a stress fracture in his back put him on the shelf. He perhaps could have returned late in the year, but the club was out of contention and shut him down, at which point Chisholm underwent surgery on a torn meniscus that he had been playing through.
Whether it’s due to the long layoff, the injuries or the position change, he hasn’t gotten into a groove at the plate yet this year. He’s currently hitting .218/.269/.391 for a wRC+ of 81. He’s struck out in 38.3% of his plate appearances thus far, a jump of more than 10 percentage points from his 27.4% rate last year.
As for that position change, the early reviews are mixed. Defensive Runs Saved has him at -1 so far, with Ultimate Zone Rating at -1.1. On the other hand, Outs Above Average has him at roughly par, 56th percentile. His outfielder jump is in the 84th percentile and his sprint speed is in the 92nd. Some growing pains were surely to be expected since he’s never played the position before, so hopefully these numbers will all trend in a positive direction over time.
Soler is perhaps the most mercurial player in the league, having spent the past few years oscillating between being one of the most feared sluggers on the planet and looking lost at the plate. Last year, his first with the Marlins, was a downswing. He struck out in 29.4% of his plate appearances and hit just .207/.295/.400 for a wRC+ of 98, missing significant time due to back spasms. He could have opted out of his contract but chose not to, likely a wise decision with that platform.
Here in 2023, he’s back on another one of his patented heaters. He’s hit five home runs already and has dropped his strikeout rate to a more manageable 23.6%. His .253/.337/.544 line amounts to a 137 wRC+. He’s largely served as the designated hitter but has been given five starts in right.
The torrid stretch for Soler is good for the Marlins in the short-term, but the long-term may be different. Soler has another opt-out opportunity after this season and would likely take it if he can maintain anything close to this pace, as he’d be walking away from just one year and $9MM.
García has a similarly inconsistent track record to Soler, posting above-average wRC+ figures in 2017, 2019 and 2021 but dipping below average in the following year each time. Last year was an especially low ebb, as his 28.7% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rates were both career worsts, as was his 66 wRC+ from his .224/.266/.317 batting line.
Now that we’re in an odd-numbered year, García is scheduled for a bounceback but has actually gotten worse in the early going so far. He’s slashing just .161/.200/.274 for a wRC+ of 30. The .211 batting average on balls in play is due for some regression, but he’s also been punched out 32.8% of the time while drawing walks at just a 3.0% clip. The Marlins desperately need him to turn things around, as his contract pays him $12MM per year through 2025, with a $12MM club option for 2026 that has a hefty $5MM buyout. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reported yesterday that the club haven’t considered releasing him, but a benching is on the table.
De La Cruz came into this year with 574 plate appearances. His 24.9% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate were both a little worse than average, but he had 18 home runs and a .269/.318/.430 line for a 108 wRC+. He’s a little bit ahead of that pace this year, currently hitting .295/.341/.436 for a 114 wRC+ with fairly similar strikeout and walk rates.
He won’t maintain a .396 batting average on balls in play all year, but he is making solid contact. His average exit velocity is in the 88th percentile of MLB hitters, and his hard-hit rate sits in the 80th percentile. Even without elite plate discipline, he can still be a useful hitter with that kind of bat. The right-hander hitter actually has reverse splits, both in his career and so far this season, which would seem to lessen the likelihood of him ending up in the short side of a platoon.
The hot start of De La Cruz seems to have cut into the playing time of Sánchez, as he’s been given only 36 plate appearances in 16 games. He’s hit just .172/.333/.241 in that time, which isn’t doing much to get him in the lineup more.
A left-handed hitter, he has traditional platoon splits for his career. He’s hit .226/.310/.440 against righties for a 108 wRC+, but he has a dismal .195/.230/.323 against southpaws for a 49 wRC+. He could seemingly serve as a useful platoon lefty bat but probably won’t get a chance as long as De La Cruz continues to seem like a viable lineup regular. He’s out of options and can’t be sent to the minors without first being exposed to waivers, which might keep him on the bench until an injury opens a spot for him. Per Jackson and Mish, Sanchez is at risk of losing his roster spot, though the club won’t make a decision on that front until Joey Wendle is back from the injured list.
Burdick got to make his major league debut last year and hit .207/.284/.380 for a wRC+ of 91 in 102 plate appearances. He’s been in Triple-A this year and utterly mashing. Through 20 games, he has a line of .309/.385/.654 and a 157 wRC+. He has a 37.4% strikeout rate and won’t sustain a .436 batting average on balls in play, but he’s already hit eight home runs and stolen four bases.
Encarnación also got a brief major league debut last year, stepping to the plate 81 times but hitting just .182/.210/.338. Like Burdick, he’s also having an excellent start to his 2023 in Triple-A. He has a current batting line of .292/.378/.472 for a wRC+ of 119. However, it’s bolstered by a huge .529 batting average on balls in play and comes despite a 42.7% strikeout rate. His 12.2% walk rate is encouraging but there’s surely some regression coming here.
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It’s hard to glean definitive judgment from one month’s worth of data, but there are some trends and takeaways in the Miami outfield with nearly 15% of the season in the books. Chisholm’s defense in center has been at least passable thus far, so he’s likely to continue on in that role. De La Cruz could hit his way into an everyday role in left field, but right field looks like a continued problem unless Garcia can correct what’s now more than a full season’s worth of struggles. Sanchez’s grip on a roster spot appears tenuous, but while the primary alternatives in Triple-A (Burdick, Encarnacion) have flashy batting lines, their lack of contact calls into question whether they’d be improvements. It’s easy enough to see the outfield again being a point of focus at the trade deadline, whether the Marlins are looking to add a veteran bat to stay in the Wild Card race or looking to acquire a controllable outfielder as part of another selling effort.
NL Notes: Alvarez, Chisholm, Sánchez
Mets catching prospect Francisco Álvarez is joining the club in case fellow backstop Omar Narváez has to go on the injured list, per a report from Mike Puma and Ted Holmlund of The New York Post. The latter was removed from yesterday’s game with calf tightness and replaced by Tomás Nido. The Mets will have an extra day to let Narváez rest and assess the situation since their home opener was postponed until tomorrow due to inclement weather, though Andy Martino of SNY adds that the club is not optimistic about Narváez avoiding the IL.
Álvarez, 21, is one of the top prospects in the sport and is generally considered to be ready for the majors when it comes to his offense. He hit 27 home runs in the minors last year and also walked in 14.1% of his plate appearances, leading to a .260/.374/.511 and 136 wRC+. He also got promoted to the big leagues late in the year, getting into five regular season games and one postseason contest. He’s currently ranked among the top 10 prospects in the league by Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, and just outside the top 10 at FanGraphs.
However, he’s still quite young and his glove is considered to be a bit behind his bat. He also struggled a bit in spring on the heels of October ankle surgery. All those factors led the club to option him to Triple-A to start the season, relying on the more established players in Narváez and Nido. If the tightness in Narváez’s calf doesn’t clear up and he needs a spell on the injured list, Álvarez might get another crack at the big leagues sooner than expected.
Some more notes from the National League…
- The Marlins got a bit of a scare yesterday when outfielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. departed their game against the Twins with an apparent injury. While sliding into second base on an attempted steal, his shoulder collided with the leg of Kyle Farmer. Chisholm was in obvious pain and left the contest after a visit from the trainer. The club later announced Chisholm’s injury as a stinger and listed him as day-to-day, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. A “stinger” is a burning or stinging sensation of the nerves in the neck and shoulder area. Though the initial situation may have caused some hearts to skip a few beats, it seems he’s avoided a significant injury, which is great news for the club. Chisholm had a huge breakout last year, hitting .254/.325/.535 for a wRC+ of 139, though he was limited to 60 games by a stress fracture in his back. He’s now attempting to make the challenging transition from second base to center field this year, an experiment that might be put on hold for a few days. Bryan De La Cruz replaced Chisholm in center yesterday and could get more time there, though Jesús Sánchez and Garrett Hampson could also be options.
- The Giants recently brought Gary Sánchez aboard on a minor league deal to bolster their catching depth and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi spoke to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle about the move this week. “We’re excited to see how he does,” Zaidi said. “At his best, he’s been one of the handful of best offensive catchers in baseball. If he can show signs of that kind of feeling, I think he can really be an impactful addition.” Sánchez hit .284/.354/.568 in 2016 and 2017 for a wRC+ of 143 but has fallen off from those heights in subsequent years. Since the signing, Joey Bart went on the injured list due to back tightness but isn’t expected to be gone long. In the meantime, Roberto Pérez and Blake Sabol are handling the catching duties, though Sabol is also playing some outfield and Zaidi admits that Pérez is “not an everyday player at this stage of his career, and we have to make sure that whoever we have complementing him can carry a pretty big workload as well.” The club will have to make a decision on Sánchez fairly soon, as he has a May 1 opt-out on his contract, which would come with a $4MM salary if added to the big league club. “We have a few weeks before we have to make a decision. It’s all about: Does he have the chance to bring it all together?” Zaidi said. “And if he does, it’d be pretty good.”
Marlins To Move Jazz Chisholm To Center Field
The Marlins made their long-awaited swap of a starting pitcher for a hitter this afternoon, sending Pablo López to Minnesota as part of a deal for Luis Arraez. Shortly after the trade was finalized, Miami general manager Kim Ng told reporters (including Craig Mish of SportsGrid) the newly-acquired infielder would take over as the primary second baseman. All-Star Jazz Chisholm Jr. will move from the keystone to center field.
It’s an interesting gambit for Miami, who’ll indirectly address their uncertain center field mix with today’s trade. Arraez has plenty of experience as a second baseman. He came up through the minors at the position and has logged more MLB innings there than at any other position. Over parts of four seasons, Arraez has spent a bit more than 1200 innings at the keystone.
Public defensive metrics have been mixed on his effectiveness. Defense Runs Saved rated him as nine runs below average in just 390 innings there as a rookie in 2019. Over the three seasons since then, DRS has pegged him as a slightly better than average second baseman. Statcast hasn’t been quite so optimistic. While it also feels he’s improved since a poor rookie showing — an estimated -7 runs in 2019 — it has rated him a little below par in two of the last three years.
Statcast has graded Arraez’s arm strength as slightly above-average for the position. Scouts have raised questions about his lateral quickness and athleticism since his time as a prospect, though. Minnesota pushed him primarily to first base work last season, starting him 31 times at the keystone compared to 60 times at first base (with a handful of games at third also mixed in). Of course, Minnesota’s signing of Carlos Correa solidified shortstop and ensured Jorge Polanco would play almost exclusively at second base. The Twins felt more comfortable with Polanco’s glove than Arraez’s up the middle, but it’s possible they’d have given the latter more second base time if they hadn’t landed one of the sport’s best shortstops.
It does come as a surprise to see Miami move Chisholm out of the middle infield. The 24-year-old (25 next month) established himself as the organization’s top position player with a .254/.325/.535 first half before suffering a season-ending stress fracture in his back. He also later underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee.
Signed as a shortstop prospect out of the Bahamas, Chisholm has only ever played the middle infield as a professional. He’ll take on the outfield on the fly during the upcoming season, with a month-plus of Spring Training action to acclimate to the new position.
With zero outfield experience, it’s impossible to know how Chisholm will take to the different reads and angles he’ll need to learn as an outfielder. Miami is clearly confident he’ll polish those aspects of his game quickly while relying on his elite athleticism in the interim. Chisholm was long credited by scouts with plus speed, and Statcast placed him in the league’s 94th percentile in that regard last season. He would’ve tied for 19th among 74 center fielders in sprint speed, so he certainly shouldn’t have issue covering the spacious outfield at Marlins Park from that perspective.
Prospect evaluators also praised Chisholm for an above-average throwing arm. He hasn’t shown that at the MLB level, though it’s not fair to compare his throwing speeds as a second baseman to those of center fielders. Chisholm obviously had quicker releases and much shorter distances to throw on the right side of the infield than he will from center field.
It’s a gamble for the Fish nonetheless, given the challenge of projecting how quickly he’ll develop the kind of reads needed to be a solid defensive center fielder. Yet it’s one Miami will take after missing out on their chances to directly upgrade the position from outside the organization. The free agent market at the position was mostly limited to depth players beyond Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger and Kevin Kiermaier. Trades only offered a few more obvious candidates, with the Pirates sticking to a massive asking price on Bryan Reynolds and even reports of a somewhat significant ask from the Royals on a glove-first option like Michael A. Taylor.
Rather than run things back with players like Jesús Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz and JJ Bleday — all of whom are better suited in the corner outfield — they’ll turn things over to Chisholm. Their younger outfielders will vie for a spot in the corner opposite Avisaíl García, while Arraez looks like to be joined by Joey Wendle, Jean Segura and Garrett Cooper in the primary infield.
Miguel Rojas Expected To Undergo Additional Wrist Procedure
After eight seasons with the Marlins, Miguel Rojas changed organizations this evening. Miami traded the infielder to the Dodgers in a one-for-one deal that sent infield prospect Jacob Amaya to South Florida.
Rojas is coming off a tough season in which he hit .237/.282/.324 through 504 trips to the plate. A right wrist issue seemed to play a role in that subpar offensive output, as the veteran underwent surgery in October to repair a torn triangular fibrocartilage complex (TFCC). Craig Mish of SportsGrid reported this evening that Rojas had another minor issue arise recently and is expected to undergo another procedure to address the matter (Twitter link).
There’s no indication this latest issue will affect Rojas’ readiness for Spring Training, much less the start of the regular season. It’s clearly not of much concern to the Dodgers, who were no doubt made aware of it during trade discussions. Rojas acknowledged this evening there’s “still a couple things I need to figure out with the wrist” but added he’d “be ready for Spring Training if everything goes well” (via Matthew Moreno of Dodger Blue).
Rojas, 34 next month, adds a glove-first utility option to the mix in L.A. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times writes the club plans to bounce the nine-year MLB veteran around the infield in a multi-positional capacity. That leaves open the possibility of Gavin Lux taking the primary shortstop job, with Max Muncy and Chris Taylor on hand to see time at second and third base (and for Taylor to continue logging plenty of outfield action). Top prospect Miguel Vargas is expected to get a chance at the hot corner as well.
As for Miami, they’ve subtracted some certainty from the short-term infield mix. Mish tweets that Joey Wendle is likely to serve as the club’s primary shortstop at the start of the season. He’d pair in the middle infield with young star Jazz Chisholm Jr., while offseason signee Jean Segura is ticketed for third base duty. Mish and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald wrote last week that Chisholm was interested in getting a chance to move back to shortstop at some point. It doesn’t seem that’ll be under consideration for now, though.
Amaya, a glove-first infielder, is already on the 40-man roster. He’s coming off a .259/.368/.381 showing in Triple-A and figures to get a chance for his big league debut at some point in 2023. Fellow rookies Jordan Groshans and Xavier Edwards are also on the 40-man, as is speedy utility player Jon Berti.
Marlins, Rockies Talked About Trade Involving Edward Cabrera, Brendan Rodgers
The Marlins boosted their offense yesterday, adding Jean Segura on a two-year, $17MM deal to play third base. Yet it appears they are still looking for hitting, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post, and at some stage discussed possible trade scenarios with the Rockies, with Edward Cabrera and Brendan Rodgers the players talked about. It’s not known whether those talks occurred before or after the Segura signing, although it seems probable they came beforehand.
Cabrera, 25 in April, made a solid 14 starts for the Marlins this season, pitching to a 3.01 ERA. He surely benefited from an opponent’s BABIP of just .207, and sure enough advanced metrics such as FIP had him pegged at 4.59. While he did strikeout batters at an above-average 25.8% clip in ’22, his walk rate of 11.3% was below the league average. Nonetheless, it was still a big step forward from a difficult seven starts Cabrera made in 2021 for Miami. Pitching prospects often take a bit of time to settle in at the highest level, and Cabrera is a former top-100 prospect who’s made just 21 big league starts and is yet to reach a full year of service time, so there’s still plenty of time for him to reach his full potential.
The Rockies could certainly use a boost to their rotation, as not one of their projected starting five had an ERA under 4.50 last year, and three finished north of 5.00. Acquiring a young starter like Cabrera would have given them a huge boost in the rotation, particularly over the long term.
The Marlins have been speculated as a possible trade partner for one of their starting pitchers. There were reports at the deadline that the Yankees came close to acquiring Pablo Lopez in a deal involving infielder Gleyber Torres. That didn’t come to fruition, and while it’s not known how far these discussions between the Rockies and Marlins got, it’s interesting to note that it was a similar framework in terms of the Marlins seeking an infielder to headline the return for one of their starting pitchers.
In this case, Rodgers, 26, is a former top-100 prospect himself who had a breakout year in 2022. The bat largely stayed in line with his career numbers, as Rodgers slashed .266/.325/.408 with 13 home runs, but he amassed a staggering 22 Defensive Runs Saved at second base, the second most in all of baseball (behind only Ke’Bryan Hayes). That’s quite the jump forward from the previous year, when Rodgers was worth -5 DRS. That saw Rodgers claim his first Gold Glove award.
The acquisition of Rodgers would have given them arguably one of the best defensive group of infielders in the game, as he would have joined Joey Wendle, Miguel Rojas, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. Though it’s worth noting that both Wendle and Rojas have drawn trade interest themselves (Rojas and Wendle).
The exact makeup of a deal, or even how far along in discussions the two teams got, is unknown but it seems unlikely it would have been a straight swap. Rodgers is first year arbitration-eligible and is projected to take home $2.7MM in 2023 (per Matt Swartz’ predictions). He can be controlled for three more seasons, while Cabrera is under control for another six.
Given the signing of Segura, it’d seem unlikely for Miami to seek any more additions in the infield without trading someone away, but they could shift their attention to moving some pitching to get outfield help. The Padres are reportedly open to moving Trent Grisham, while Pittsburgh has reportedly been seeking a top, young starter to headline any deal for Bryan Reynolds, so those two teams as well as a myriad of others could, speculatively, make sense as trade partners for Miami.
Marlins Sign Jean Segura
December 29: Segura’s deal has a third year team option, per Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. It’s not clear what kind of option that is, but Mish provides the specific financial breakdown. Segura will make $6.5MM in 2023 and $8.5MM in 2024, then there’s a $10MM option for 2025 with a $2MM buyout.
December 28: The Marlins are in agreement on a deal with Jean Segura, as first reported by Héctor Gómez of Z101 (Twitter link). Once finalized, it’ll be a two-year, $17MM contract for the CAA client.
Segura has spent the last four years in the NL East. The Phillies acquired the right-handed hitting infielder over the 2018-19 offseason in a deal that sent J.P. Crawford and offloaded the final season of Carlos Santana’s contract to the Mariners. He spent four seasons as an everyday middle infielder in Philadelphia. He hit free agency at the start of this offseason when the team bought him out for $1MM in lieu of a $17MM option.
As he has for much of his career, Segura provided consistently effective work on both sides of the ball. He hit between 10 and 14 home runs in all three full seasons while stealing between nine and 13 bases in each year. In each of the past three seasons, he’s put up slightly above-average numbers at the plate. Since the start of the 2019 campaign, the two-time All-Star owns a .281/.337/.418 line through just under 1800 trips to the dish.
Segura has typically been a durable and reliable presence in the lineup, topping 125 games in all eight full seasons from 2013-21 and playing in 57 of 60 games during the abbreviated 2020 campaign. That wasn’t the case in 2022, as he fractured his right index finger on a bunt attempt at the end of May. That required surgery and sidelined him through early August, but Segura’s rate production this year was in line with that of prior seasons.
The 32-year-old (33 in March) hit .277/.336/.387 over 387 plate appearances. He’s not one to draw many walks or hit for huge power, but he makes plenty of contact. Segura only struck out in 15% of his trips to the plate and has posted a lower than average strikeout percentage in every season of his career. He put the bat on the ball on 83.2% of his swings this past season, a rate that’s nearly six percentage points higher than the league average. Those contact skills are certainly appealing to a Marlins club that entered the offseason seeking hitters with low strikeout rates.
It’s the first notable roster move of the winter for Miami general manager Kim Ng and her staff. They’ve sought to upgrade a lineup that ranked 28th in MLB in run scoring but hadn’t made any moves to bolster the offense thus far. Segura adds a potential top-of-the-lineup threat for first-year manager Skip Schumaker.
While he’s a solid addition to the batting order, it’s not as ideal a fit positionally. Segura played shortstop for the early part of his career but posted below-average defensive marks there in 2019. After that season, Philadelphia signed Didi Gregorius and kicked Segura to the other side of the bag. He’s played almost exclusively second base for three years, with just 21 starts at third base and two starts at shortstop (all in 2020) over that stretch. Segura has manned shortstop for only two innings in the past two seasons.
Since moving to the keystone, the Dominican Republic native has rated highly with the glove. Defensive Runs Saved has credited him a cumulative six runs above average for the past three years, while Statcast has pegged him 13 runs above par. Second base is his best position at this stage of his career, meaning it appears young star Jazz Chisholm Jr. will kick over to shortstop. While Chisholm came up as a shortstop prospect, he’s played mostly second base in MLB. Like Segura, he didn’t log a single inning outside of second base in 2022. In a fairly small sample of 329 2/3 innings at shortstop from 2020-21, Chisholm rated as a below-average defender by both DRS and Statcast.
Moving Chisholm to shortstop could signal a reduction in playing time for Miguel Rojas. Regarded as Miami’s unofficial team captain, Rojas has been the primary shortstop in South Florida for five straight seasons. He’s a quality defender but hit only .236/.283/.323 across 507 plate appearances in 2022. That lackluster offensive showing could be partially explained by injury, as the 33-year-old underwent surgery to repair cartilage damage in his right wrist at season’s end. Rojas is under contract for $5MM next season and reportedly drew some trade interest from the Red Sox earlier this winter. Miami could certainly keep Rojas around as infield depth — particularly if they deal third baseman Joey Wendle instead — but the Segura signing could make them more willing to entertain trade offers on their incumbent shortstop.
Segura was one of four players and two position players (the other being Jurickson Profar) from MLBTR’s pre-offseason top 50 free agents who hadn’t yet agreed to terms. The reported contract is a near-match for the two years and $18MM which MLBTR had projected. The deal’s specific financial breakdown remains unreported, but evenly distributing $8.5MM salaries would bring Miami’s estimated 2023 payroll to $103MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’d be a fair bit north of this past season’s $79MM Opening Day mark.
How much money Ng and her staff still have to play with isn’t clear, though the club could continue to look for ways to address the offense. Center field is an obvious area of need, while Miami may add behind the plate or at the corner infield. The Marlins’ stable of quality young pitching gives them the chance to turn to the trade market for offensive help, which now figures to be the course of action after tonight’s dip into free agency.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Undergoes Right Meniscus Surgery
TODAY: Chisholm underwent surgery to repair a torn right meniscus on Friday, according to Jordan McPherson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Chisholm has been playing through the injury during the entire 2022 campaign and had planned to undergo the operation once the season was over, but opted to undergo the procedure now since he wasn’t going to be playing any more games. Chisholm is expected to be fully recovered for the start of Spring Training.
SEPTEMBER 10: The 2022 season is officially over for Marlins second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr., as MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola (Twitter link) reports that Chisholm is still rehabbing from a stress fracture in his back. Chisholm hasn’t played since June 28 and is thus eligible to be activated off the 60-day injured list at any time. There hasn’t been any type of setback in the second baseman’s recovery, and yet since the Marlins aren’t in contention, they opted to shut him down rather than bring Chisholm back for a few meaningless games.
Chisholm was initially placed on the IL with a strain in his lower back, though reports surfaced on July 22 that Chisholm was suffering from a stress fracture. Given the initial six-week recovery timeline and the subsequent follow-up time needed for a minor league rehab assignment, it already seemed a little unlikely that Chisholm would take the field again this season.
Injuries have already been a recurring theme of Chisholm’s short career, as he spent time on the injured list last season due to a hamstring problem and a shoulder contusion. Since making his MLB debut on September 1, 2020, Chisholm has played in only 205 big league games, though his performance in 2022 underlines why he was such a highly-touted prospect.
Chisholm’s first-half performance earned the 24-year-old his first All-Star selection, as he hit .254/.325/.535 with 14 home runs. Between this strong offensive performance, excellent baserunning, and good defense (in the eyes of the Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved metrics), Chisholm generated 2.5 fWAR over only 60 games played.
It speaks to Miami’s disappointing season that Chisholm is still second on the team in fWAR, behind only Sandy Alcantara‘s 4.8 total. The lack of punch throughout the lineup quite possibly might have kept the Marlins out of contention even if Chisholm has remained healthy, yet losing the second baseman ended whatever chance Miami might’ve had at a playoff berth. The Marlins were 39-40 on July 5, but have since posted an 18-40 record.
If there is any plus side to be found, Chisholm is expected to be ready for the start of the 2023 campaign, so the Marlins can now proceed with one cornerstone tentatively in place. Plenty of other decisions remain throughout the roster, of course, and the club might again be looking to move some young pitching in trades to acquire some offensive help.
Marlins Roster Moves
The Marlins made a number of roster moves today, including moving All-Star Jazz Chisholm Jr. to the 60-day injured list. Anthony Bender and Cody Poteet were also moved to the 60-day injured list. Those moves cleared 40-man roster spots for Willians Astudillo, Jeff Brigham, and Huascar Brazoban, who were all added to the active roster. To create those spots on the active roster, Brian Anderson was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left shoulder strain, while Max Meyer and Tommy Nance were both placed on the 15-day injured list, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (via Twitter).
The Chisolm move is the most noteworthy (if expected) move of the bunch. The All-Star was recently diagnosed with a stress fracture in his back. The Marlins hope he can return by the end of the season, though that’s definitely in doubt.
It’s equally disappointing to see Meyer make a quick trip to the injured list after just two big league starts. The 23-year-old surrendered five earned runs in seven innings while striking out six and walking two.
Nance, a 31-year-old reliever, joins Meyer on the injured list. The former Cub has a 5.76 ERA/3.28 FIP in 19 outings covering 25 innings this season for the Marlins. The power righty misses a fair amount of bats, but struggled at times with his command. For the year, he has struck out a robust 29.9 percent of opponents, but he has also walked 11.1 percent of opposing hitters, a number that needs to come down in order for him to become an effective late-inning arm.
Brazoban made his Major League debut today, throwing an arsenal based around a sinker that neared 98 mph on average. The 32-year-old Dominican was playing in the independent league last season. Brigham, 30, has made 37 appearances for the Marlins over the past three seasons, posting a 5.01 ERA/5.32 FIP across 55 2/3 innings. Astudillo has stepped to the plate 38 times for the Marlins this season, slashing .270/.289/.351.
Jazz Chisholm Diagnosed With Stress Fracture In Back
The Marlins will be without star second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. for quite some time, as a CT scan has revealed a stress fracture in his back, Craig Mish and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald report (Twitter link). That comes with around a six-week recovery timetable, and Chisholm will likely then need to ramp back up to game activity.
It’s a brutal injury for a Marlins team that is on the fringe of the National League Wild Card race (six games back) and determining whether to add some veteran pieces or sell off short-term assets with the trade deadline looming. The 24-year-old Chisholm has emerged as Miami’s best position player and one of the better all-around talents in the National League, slashing .254/.325/.535 with 14 home runs, 10 doubles, four triples and a dozen stolen bases in 241 plate appearances this year.
That output would put Chisholm on pace for a potential 30-homer, 30-steal season — all while playing standout defense at second base. This latest injury, however, looks as though it’ll sideline the dynamic Miami second baseman for the majority of the games remaining on the schedule. Nagging back issues have interrupted the breakout season for the first-time All-Star, who initially landed on the 10-day injured list in late June with what had been termed a lower back strain.
The Fish have felt Chisholm’s absence, limping to a .206/.266/.304 line since he landed on the shelf. They’re currently riding a four-game losing streak in which they’re scored a total of one run, and they haven’t plated more than five runs in any contest since July 3. That stretch has dealt a notable hit to their chances of hanging around in the Wild Card race, and losing their best player only makes a second-half push seem more far-fetched. Frustrations with the offense have understandably mounted, with manager Don Mattingly saying yesterday the Marlins have a “stagnant club that sits and hopes we hit a home run or a couple doubles” while both Chisholm and stolen base leader Jon Berti have been on the injured list (video link via Jeremy Tache of Bally Sports Florida). The skipper added it’s been “frustrating” to get down years from players like Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler, each of whom was brought in via multi-year free agent deals over the winter.
Mish tweeted yesterday that unhappiness was predictably mounting throughout the organization, suggesting the team could soon turn to former #4 overall pick JJ Bleday in hopes of sparking the offense. Bleday has seen his stock fall notably since he’s been in pro ball, but he’s at least reaching base at a .365 clip with Triple-A Jacksonville this season. General manager Kim Ng and her staff will have to decide how to proceed with the roster over the next few weeks, with Miami featuring a host of veteran role players who could hold appeal to contenders were the Marlins to make them available.
List Of All-Star Roster Replacements
7:25PM: Freddie Freeman is also joining the NL roster, as the league announced that the Dodgers first baseman is replacing Starling Marte.
4:04PM: The league announced that the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas has now been added to the NL roster, taking the spot of Brewers righty Corbin Burnes.
July 17, 1:15PM: The Mariners have announced that Ty France will be joining the festivities as well. MLB later announced the addition as well, noting that he is replacing Mike Trout. With Trout not taking part, Byron Buxton will move into the starting center fielder role for the American League.
10:05AM: MLB has announced three more additions, with one of them being the previously reported addition of Williams. The other two are closers: Liam Hendriks of the White Sox and Jordan Romano of the Blue Jays. Those three will replace Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander and Max Fried.
July 16, 11:01PM: Brewers reliever Devin Williams has also been named to the NL roster, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).
7:11:PM: Four replacements were announced to the All-Star rosters, taking the spots of four other players who won’t be part of the Midsummer Classic. Dodgers left-hander Tyler Anderson, Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth, and Braves third baseman Austin Riley will be joining the National League’s team, while Blue Jays second baseman Santiago Espinal has been named to the American League’s roster.
Espinal is replacing Jose Altuve, who was hit in the knee by a pitch on Thursday. Altuve sat out Friday’s action and is back in the Astros lineup tonight as the DH, but even though he is well enough to play, Altuve and the Astros will use the All-Star break to get the second baseman fully back to 100 percent. Altuve had been voted in as the AL’s starter at second baseman, but now the Guardians’ Andres Gimenez take over as the starter for Tuesday’s game.
Jazz Chisholm was voted as the NL’s starting second baseman, but the Marlins standout will also be missing the game due to his lower back injury. Chisholm has been on the 10-day injured list since June 28, but he has been working out at the Marlins’ spring camp, and taking part in baseball activities. There isn’t a set timeline for Chisholm’s return, but the team is hopeful Chisholm can be activated for the start of the second half. With Chisholm out, Jeff McNeil becomes the NL’s new starter at the keystone, while Cronenworth will take over the backup infield role.
Giants lefty Carlos Rodon is also battling injury, opening the door for Anderson to receive the first All-Star nod of his seven-year career. Rodon has both a blister and a split nail on the middle finger of his throwing hand, and told Henry Schulman and other reporters that he is skipping the ASG in order to give the injury time to properly heal. There isn’t yet any indication that Rodon might require a visit to the injured list, and since Rodon last pitched on Thursday, he’ll receive at least a full week off between starts.
Riley was perhaps the most prominent omission from the original All-Star roster, given how the Braves slugger has posted some huge numbers over the first half. However, as it often the case with “snubs,” the situation sorted itself out once other players started to drop out. Riley will be taking the place of Nolan Arenado, as the Cardinals third baseman will use the break to rest a lingering back problem.