Possible Left-Handed Power Targets For Nationals
The Nationals haven’t made many notable acquisitions this offseason. They signed middle reliever Dylan Floro and former top prospect Nick Senzel to affordable one-year pacts and plucked infielder Nasim Nuñez from the Marlins in the Rule 5 draft. It’s not all that surprising that a still-rebuilding Washington team coming off a 71-91 showing hasn’t been aggressive, but GM Mike Rizzo had suggested at the Winter Meetings the team was open to a multi-year free agent pickup “in the right situation” (link via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com).
With all of $4.25MM in free agent spending committed to Floro and Senzel, there should still be financial room at Rizzo’s disposal. That doesn’t guarantee they’ll hand out any kind of significant deal, particularly with a lack of great options in the middle tiers of free agency. Yet it’d be a surprise if the Nationals were finished with their offseason activity. One area where some kind of addition seems likely: a left-handed bat.
Both the Talk Nats blog and MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato suggested in late December that Washington was looking to bring in left-handed power. The Nats’ best lefty or switch-hitting bats — CJ Abrams, Keibert Ruiz, Luis García and Jake Alu — all have middling pop. Only the Guardians had a lower ISO (slugging minus batting average) against right-handed pitching in 2023. Acquiring a lefty power source makes plenty of sense.
It’s hard to see Washington spending at the level it’d take to land Cody Bellinger. Even though he’s young enough to be a veteran cornerstone for a team that could more realistically seek to compete by 2025, the Nationals have a pair of top center field prospects in James Wood and Dylan Crews. They’re also still faced with the MASN rights uncertainty and on the hook for significant money to Patrick Corbin, Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer’s deferrals in the short term. It’s probably not the right time for a top-of-the-market splash.
We’ll look a few tiers down. Where might that search lead Rizzo and company?
Free Agency
- Brandon Belt: Belt, even going into his age-36 season, should command the loftiest guarantee of the players in this group. He’s coming off a very strong offensive showing for the Blue Jays. He hit 19 homers and walked more than 15% of the time he stepped to the plate, leading to a .254/.369/.490 line through 404 plate appearances. Favorable matchups played a role in that strong rate production; Toronto limited him to 39 PA’s against left-handed pitching. Washington could deploy him similarly at designated hitter and/or first base, where only Joey Meneses (coming off a league average offensive showing) stands in the way.
- Joc Pederson: The Blue Jays are the only club publicly tied to Pederson this winter. He’s coming off a middling season in which he hit .235/.348/.416 with 15 homers through 425 plate appearances for the Giants. That’s not huge power production at first glance, but Pederson has five 20+ homer seasons on his résumé (four with at least 25 longballs). He made hard contact — an exit velocity of at least 95 MPH — on more than half his batted balls last season, a top 15 rate in the majors. Pederson is a limited player. He’s best served as a DH and is mostly limited to facing right-handed pitching. He still has life in the bat, though, even if last year’s results were underwhelming.
- Eddie Rosario: There hasn’t been any public chatter on Rosario since the Braves declined a $9MM option at the start of the offseason. He should command a one-year deal at a salary that’s not too far below that rate. Rosario is coming off a reasonably effective year. He hit 21 homers with a .255/.305/.450 line in 516 trips to the plate. That was the fourth time in his career that he surpassed 20 longballs. Rosario is mostly limited to left field but rated reasonably well with the glove last year. His performance varies wildly within seasons, but he tends to produce roughly league average numbers by the end.
- Joey Gallo: Gallo hit 21 homers in just 332 plate appearances a season ago. The flaw in his game, huge swing-and-miss rates, has only magnified in recent seasons. Gallo hasn’t hit above the Mendoza line since 2019. He’s hitting .168 with a .290 on-base percentage in 742 plate appearances over the last two campaigns. There are a lot of uncompetitive at-bats. Few players fit the profile of a “left-handed power bat” quite like Gallo, though.
Trade Possibilities
It’s tougher to identify great fits on the trade market in the absence of many clear rebuilding teams. The Nationals could theoretically take a bigger swing at a player with an extended control window (e.g. Alec Burleson, Jesús Sánchez). That’s not an easy task to pull off, particularly since Washington is probably reluctant to part with significant prospect talent. There are a few veteran bats who’d make some sense as speculative trade candidates for a lesser return.
- Josh Bell: Bell had a productive stint over his year and a half in Washington from 2021-22. He hit .278/.363/.483 in just over 1000 plate appearances before being included in the Juan Soto trade. Bell has changed uniforms twice more since that deadline blockbuster, signing with the Guardians before being flipped to the Marlins last summer. The switch-hitting first baseman struggled in Cleveland (.233/.318/.383) but generally turned things around in South Florida (.270/.338/.480). That reasonably strong finish wasn’t enough for Bell to forego a $16.5MM player option for the upcoming season. It stands to reason the Fish would be happy to get out from under the bulk of that deal if the Nationals were interested in a reunion.
- Seth Brown: A’s GM David Forst indicated at the beginning of the offseason that he didn’t expect to trade Brown. That’s presumably more about Oakland feeling that other teams won’t meet their ask than an indication they wouldn’t consider offers on a 31-year-old platoon player. Brown is a career .237/.305/.471 hitter against right-handed pitching. He can play first base or the corner outfield and is under arbitration control for three seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz forecasts him for a $2.4MM salary.
- Mike Yastrzemski: Yastrzemski is projected for a $7.3MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration season. He hit 15 homers in 381 plate appearances a year ago, running a .233/.330/.445 line overall. The Giants aren’t likely to urgently shop Yastrzemski, but the singing of Jung Hoo Lee pushes him from center field to the corner opposite Michael Conforto. Trading Mitch Haniger paved the way for a Lee, Conforto, Yastrzemski outfield supplemented by righty-hitting Austin Slater, but the Giants also have Luis Matos, Wade Meckler and Heliot Ramos as options on the grass.
Minor League Deal Candidates
Each of these players has turned in above-average offense from the left side in their careers. None hit free agency under great circumstances. Choi had an injury-plagued 2023 campaign that kept him to 39 games without much production. The other four players were either non-tendered or elected free agency after an outright.
Meadows has missed most of the past two seasons attending to anxiety; it is unclear if he’ll be in position to return next year. Ford and Vogelbach are largely limited to DH, while Walsh hasn’t been the same since he was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome in 2022. None of these players are likely to be Washington’s top acquisition, but they’d be viable depth targets if the Nats wanted a second lefty bat on a minor league or low-cost MLB pact.
Blue Jays Looking To Add Bat-First Players, Have “Strong Interest” In Joc Pederson
After missing out on both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto despite finishing as finalists for both stars, the Blue Jays have recently pivoted to smaller moves than the blockbusters they were contemplating earlier in the offseason. They’ve re-signed center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and added utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa to their infield mix over the past week and a recent report regarded the club as the leaders for the services of right-hander Yariel Rodriguez. According to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, the club has also continued to be active in the positional market since signing Kiermaier and Kiner-Falefa, showing strong interest in free agent slugger Joc Pederson.
Pederson, who MLBTR’s Leo Morgenstern profiled just this morning, is coming off something of a down season with the Giants in 2023. The 31-year-old got off to a scorching hot start this past season with a .281/.394/.518 (150 wRC+) slash line through June 17, though that stretch accounted for just 137 plate appearances as the slugger battled wrist and hand injuries early in the season. While Pederson managed to avoid the injured list throughout the remainder of the season, his performance declined significantly throughout the remainder of the campaign. In 288 trips to the plate from June 18 onward, Pederson hit a meager .213/.326/.369 (92 wRC+), a performance that dragged his overall season line down to .235/.348/.416 (111 wRC+). While Pederson’s 20.8% strikeout rate and 12.8% walk rate were more or less in line with his earlier production, Pederson’s BABIP shrunk from .317 to just .247 while his power production suffered a simultaneously dip.
After crushing seven home runs in just 36 games early in the season, Pederson’s final 85 appearances saw him hit just eight round-trippers. Interestingly, the disparity in production came with similar peripheral numbers; Pederson had the same groundball percentage of 39.5% both before and after the aforementioned June 17 cutoff, and his soft contact rate actually went down from 12.8% to 10.8% the rest of the way. Given the minimal change in Pederson’s peripherals regarding batted balls and plate discipline, it’s seemingly fair to expect improved performance in 2024, particularly if he moves to a more homer-friendly park outside of San Francisco. That conclusion is further supported by Pederson’s excellent .368 xwOBA, which outstrips his wOBA by 37 points and is a mirror image of the .367 xwOBA he posted during his dominant 2022 campaign.
If Pederson can even come close to replicating his 2022 season, where he slashed an excellent .271/.353/.521 (146 wRC+) en route to his second career All Star campaign, he’d be an excellent fit for a Blue Jays roster short on left-handed bats following the departure of Brandon Belt, who posted a 138 wRC+ in 103 games this year as the club’s primary DH. Though Pederson primarily played DH in 2023 due to an outfield logjam in San Francisco, the slugger could also help to take some pressure off of Daulton Varsho in left field after a difficult 2023 season. The addition of Pederson would go along way to improving a Toronto offense that underperformed somewhat in 2023 and has since lost both Belt and Matt Chapman to free agency.
Of course, it’s important to note that Nicholson-Smith suggests that things are far from a done deal between the two sides, with the Diamondbacks, Angels, Giants, and Cubs all standing as other potential suitors (though the Cubs, Nicholson-Smith notes, may only have interest should they fail to re-sign Cody Bellinger). Likewise, the Blue Jays are interested in plenty of potential bat-first options beyond Pederson, with Nicholson-Smith name-checking each of Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, Joey Votto, and Justin Turner. Nicholson-Smith goes on to suggest that a deal with Pederson wouldn’t preclude the Jays from adding a second player from that mold, though it’s worth noting that with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. entrenched at first base only Justin Turner has recent experience elsewhere on the diamond, meaning Pederson would likely need to play the outfield on a regular basis in that scenario.
Free Agent Profile: Joc Pederson
Thus far in the offseason, the free agent market has moved significantly faster for pitchers than for hitters. Twenty-two of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents have signed this winter, and 16 of those (including Shohei Ohtani) have been pitchers. Even beyond the top 50, pitchers have made up the majority of notable MLB signings. However, with Ohtani and Jung Hoo Lee off the board, perhaps the market for position players will begin to heat up in the new year.
One particular bat to keep an eye on is Joc Pederson, a two-time All-Star with an .800 OPS across ten big league seasons and 1,140 career games. While he missed the cut-off for MLBTR’s Top 50 list, he is arguably the best hitter remaining among the honorable mentions, and if he rediscovers the success he had in 2022, he could prove to be a bargain for his new club.
Over the first five years of his career, Pederson was a consistent power threat and a walk machine, crushing 123 home runs to go along with a 12.1% walk rate and a .245 isolated power. After a couple of down years in 2020 and ’21, the lefty slugger bounced all the way back in ’22, putting up the best offensive numbers of his career. His .874 OPS ranked seventh in the National League (min. 400 PA), while his 146 wRC+ ranked fifth. He was named to his first All-Star team since his rookie season and was a Silver Slugger finalist in the outfield.
Following his eye-catching 2022 campaign, Pederson accepted a $19.7MM qualifying offer from the Giants, more than tripling his $6MM salary from the previous season. Unfortunately, he was not able to live up to the high expectations he set for himself. His numbers dropped in all three triple-slash categories, and while his .764 OPS was still well above average, it was hardly elite.
Be that as it may, there is plenty of reason for optimism as Pederson enters his age-32 campaign. For one thing, he recorded his highest walk rate since 2015 and the best walk-to-strikeout ratio of his career in 2023. His batting average and on-base percentage still declined, but that could merely be the result of bad luck on balls in play. While his .235 BA was below league average, his .264 xBA (per Baseball Savant) was significantly above average. Moreover, the -0.029 difference between his BA and xBA was the second largest gap among NL hitters (min. 200 balls in play).
In the same vein, the lefty’s .366 xwOBA was right in line with his .367 xwOBA from the previous season. Indeed, Pederson’s Baseball Savant page paints a pretty promising picture overall. His xwOBA ranked in the 90th percentile in MLB, while his 52.2% hard-hit rate ranked in the 96th. On top of that, he set a new career high in maximum exit velocity, crushing one particular pitch at 116.6 mph. Only 13 hitters topped that number in 2023, a list of batters littered with MVP candidates and All-Stars. Needless to say, we’re talking about a hitter who can still demolish the baseball.
With all that in mind, it’s reasonable to presume Pederson will improve upon his .764 OPS and 111 wRC+ in 2024. According to the Steamer projection system at FanGraphs, he has the second-highest projected OPS (.809) among all unsigned free agents. Only Jorge Soler (.813) is ahead of him by a narrow margin, while Michael Brantley has the next highest projection at .799. To be fair, Pederson is unlikely to be an everyday player, and his projections presume a limited amount of exposure to same-handed pitching. Still, any hitter who can produce an .800 OPS on the heavy side of a platoon is a valuable player to have around.
Yet, unlike fellow outfield/DH bats Teoscar Hernández and Soler, Pederson hasn’t been connected with many teams so far this winter. Given the shallow market for impact bats, especially left-handed hitters, it’s somewhat strange he hasn’t generated more interest.
Around the end of the regular season, Pederson linked himself to his then-team, the Giants, telling Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he would love to return to San Francisco in 2024. “I really like it here,” he explained. “It’s a great group of guys. I love the way they run the organization.” While such comments aren’t always particularly revelatory, especially when they concern a player’s current team, it’s worth noting that Pederson chose to return to the Giants in 2023 instead of testing the open market after his All-Star season. In addition, he grew up rooting for the Giants, and he has spent all but one year of his professional career playing in his home state of California.
However, the Giants are almost certainly out of room for Pederson after signing KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year, $113MM deal earlier this month. In addition to Lee, the Giants have four veteran outfielders on the roster, two of whom, Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski, are left-handed hitters with mediocre career platoon splits against same-handed pitching – much like Pederson himself.
Pederson also spurred brief speculation he was signing with the Phillies this winter after posting a picture of himself posing at Citizens Bank Park to his personal Instagram account. The rumors were shortlived, however, as Todd Zolecki of MLB.com quickly set the record straight: “It doesn’t mean he’s signing with the Phillies. They haven’t even talked this offseason.”
To that end, Pederson never made much sense for the Phillies. Philadelphia already has a left-handed full-time DH (Kyle Schwarber) and a left-handed outfielder with sizeable platoon splits (Brandon Marsh). If president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is going to sign another bat, he will presumably target a right-handed hitter with a bit more defensive versatility.
The only team Pederson has been connected with by any source other than himself is the Blue Jays, who expressed interest in the outfielder earlier this month, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Davidi’s report came before Toronto signed Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, but that doesn’t mean the club couldn’t add Pederson, too. General manager Ross Atkins mentioned early in the offseason that he would consider adding a primary DH, and the Jays should also have playing time available in both outfield corners when the injury-prone Kiermaier and George Springer need some time off their feet. That said, the Blue Jays have also been heavily linked to Cody Bellinger this winter, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today calling them the favorites a couple of weeks back. Signing Bellinger, another left-handed outfielder, would likely take Toronto out of the running for Pederson.
So, beyond those three clubs, where could Pederson wind up? One possible landing spot is the Angels, who have room in the outfield and could certainly use a left-handed power bat. By all accounts, GM Perry Minasian isn’t planning to start a rebuild, and after missing out on Ohtani, he should have plenty of cash to spend. According to the estimates provided by Roster Resource, the Angels’ payroll currently sits about $60MM below the final tally from last season.
Another possibility is the Nationals, who are reportedly seeking a left-handed power bat this winter. If that is indeed the case, there might be no better option than Pederson. It’s hard to imagine the Nationals are in on Bellinger, or that Bellinger would choose to sign with a rebuilding club. Meanwhile, Brantley is an excellent left-handed hitter, but power hasn’t been a part of his offensive toolkit in several years. Brandon Belt is the only other free agent who looks to be an impactful left-handed hitter, but it’s anyone’s guess if he can keep mashing in his age-36 season.
Finally, the Mariners are one more suitor worth keeping in mind. After trading Jarred Kelenic and non-tendering Mike Ford, Seattle could use another lefty hitter. Mitch Garver figures to get most of the playing time at DH, but the Mariners have room for an upgrade in either one of the outfield corners. Considering president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto’s long-standing aversion to signing free agent position players to longer-term contracts, Pederson seems like a good fit; he might be the best free agent outfielder who would be open to signing a one-year deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Blue Jays Interested In Brantley, Pederson, Kiner-Falefa
The Blue Jays have been linked to such high-profile names as Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Juan Soto, and others on the free agent and trade markets, yet the team isn’t only focusing on these top-tier names to address their roster needs. According to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, the Jays have interest in free agent outfielders Michael Brantley and Joc Pederson, as well as utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
These names have long been on the radar of Jays GM Ross Atkins, who has at least explored the possibility of acquiring all of the trio in the past. Kiner-Falefa was targeted at the last trade deadline, Pederson was targeted during his last stint in free agency during the 2021-22 offseason, and Brantley reportedly seemed on the verge of signing with Toronto in the winter of 2020-21 before opting to return to the Astros at something of the eleventh hour.
To some extent, Brantley or Pederson could be seen as backup plans if Toronto didn’t acquire Soto, since left field is the primary defensive spot for all three players. A world exists where the Blue Jays could trade for Soto and then sign one of the other two outfielders, with an eye towards using Brantley or Pederson primarily as a designated hitter (with Soto or George Springer also getting some DH time for partial rest days). Such a scenario might somewhat run counter to the Jays’ focus on defense over the last year, though Daulton Varsho would still be anchoring center field, and the Jays might be willing to sacrifice some glovework to boost their middling lineup.
In the bigger picture, none of Brantley, Pederson, or Kiner-Falefa would really be obstacles to any bigger-name acquisitions the Blue Jays might have in mind. The three veterans are all likely to be had on one-year contracts, similar to Toronto’s signings of Kevin Kiermaier or Brandon Belt last winter.
Pederson hit .235/.348/.416 with 15 home runs over 425 plate appearances for the Giants last season, as his 111 wRC+ was still quite respectable but a big step down from the 146 wRC+ posted in 2022. It was something of an unusual year for Pederson in 2023, as he cut back on his strikeouts and increased his walk rate, but seemingly at the cost of a good chunk of his usual power. Pederson still had some of the best hard-contact numbers of any player in the league, and a .268 BABIP and a big gap in his wOBA (.331) and his xwOBA (.366) indicates that the 31-year-old might’ve been somewhat unlucky to post only a 111 wRC+.
That said, 2022 does stand out as something of an outlier amongst Pederson’s last four seasons, and even his career in general. Without much baserunning or defensive value, Pederson projects best as a DH (or part-time left fielder or first baseman), and limiting him to plate appearances against only right-handed pitching is preferable given his career splits.
Brantley would also have to be considered a part-time option due to his health, as shoulder surgery and recurring soreness kept Brantley out of action from June 2022 until August of last season. He amassed 89 total PA with the Astros during the regular season and postseason, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Brantley’s eventual contract contains a lot of incentive clauses tied to playing time. The former five-time All-Star showed only flashes of his old self at the plate in 2023, though it is possible another full offseason of rest and rehab might get Brantley back into something closer to his past form.
Kiner-Falefa is in some ways the easiest player to project of the trio, as the 28-year-old has pretty firmly established himself as a light-hitting jack of all trades who can provide at least respectable defense at a wide variety of positions. A Gold Glove winner with the Rangers as a third baseman in 2020, IKF could be viewed by the Blue Jays as a potential glove-first replacement for Matt Chapman at the hot corner, with the Jays then presumably looking to add bigger bats to fill their other holes at second base, left field, or DH. If Toronto doesn’t think enough of Kiner-Falefa’s bat to merit a semi-starting role, he could simply be a top utility option off the bench, giving the Blue Jays some flexibility in how hard they need to push on any one of their particular positions of need.
As usual, Atkins is seemingly keeping tabs on just about every prominent player on the market, and Davidi hears from player agents that the Blue Jays are “planning to shift quickly if needed” should their attempts at a superstar acquisition fall short. In terms of Ohtani specifically, Davidi is doubtful the two-time AL MVP will ultimately land in Toronto, yet the Jays aren’t really costing themselves by exploring the possibility since the position-player market is moving quite slowly. It could be that several teams and players are in the same boat as the Blue Jays in waiting on Ohtani’s decision to open up the market to a fuller extent.
Quick Hits: Tigers, Pederson, Bieber, McKenzie, Rockies
The Tigers could potentially have a new general manager in place before the end of the season, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports via X. It was almost exactly a year ago that Scott Harris was hired as the club’s new president of baseball operations, though the GM role (effectively Harris’ top lieutenant) has remained vacant, despite an ongoing search and the fact that Detroit has three assistant GMs in Sam Menzin, Rob Metzler, and Jay Sartori. It remains to be seen if the Tigers might promote from within or look to someone from outside the organization to act as Harris’ official second-in-command.
There hasn’t been much news on the GM search or Harris’ hiring preferences, as he said back in June that the process had taken a back seat to more pressing matters, such as preparation for the amateur draft and presumably the trade deadline in short order afterwards. It could also be that Harris has someone in particular in mind who is currently under contract with another organization, and had to wait until closer to the end of the 2023 season to engage in negotiations. Or, since Harris was viewing his first season with the Tigers as an evaluation process on and off the field, he might have a better sense of what he wants in a GM after a year of gauging the club’s pluses and minuses.
More from around the baseball world…
- After two seasons with the Giants, Joc Pederson is eager for a third, telling the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser that “I really like it here. It’s a great group of guys. I love the way they run the organization.” Pederson’s big 2022 campaign led the Giants to issue him a qualifying offer after the season, and Pederson opted to take the one-year, $19.65MM rather than test the market in search of a longer or more lucrative deal. Pederson is again eligible for free agency this winter, and will face a more limited market since his 2023 numbers (.245/.355/.421 with 13 homers over 383 plate appearances) have been more good than great, and Pederson brings little batting value against left-handed pitching or defensive value as a corner outfielder. That said, Pederson also has some of the best hard-contact metrics of any hitter in the league, and since his .373 xwOBA outpaces his .340 wOBA by such a significant margin, there could be multiple teams interested in seeing if he can have better luck in 2024. San Francisco might be such a team, since the Giants’ love of platoons might be create a natural part-time for Pederson.
- Guardians starters Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie each started rehab assignments with Double-A Akron this week, with Bieber’s next outing tentatively slated for tomorrow and McKenzie on Tuesday, as Guards manager Terry Francona told reporters (including Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal). Both pitchers are on the 60-day injured list, as McKenzie has been out since June due to a right elbow sprain and Bieber since July because of right elbow inflammation. With only two weeks left in the regular season, the timing will be tight for either pitcher to make it back, and Cleveland’s dimming hopes at the AL Central title also make it possible that the team could just shut down Bieber or McKenzie out of caution. However, the two right-handers are still aiming to return, since as McKenzie put it, returning after the long IL stint would allow him to “go into the offseason with a calm mind.”
- The Rockies‘ seemingly nonstop flood of pitching injuries has continued today, with Kyle Freeland leaving today’s start after three innings due to what the club later announced as a mild right oblique strain. This came after Colorado already placed right-hander Peter Lambert on the 15-day IL prior to their doubleheader with the Giants, as Lambert is suffering from right biceps tendinitis. Lambert has a 5.36 ERA over 87 1/3 innings this year, after missing most of the previous three seasons due to injuries. Freeland has a 5.07 ERA and he leads the Rox with 155 2/3 innings pitched, though he also previously missed a bit of time on the IL with a minor shoulder issue in July. It is safe to assume that Lambert’s 2023 campaign is over, and Freeland is also probably done for the year unless his oblique strain ends up being very minor.
Five Bats Improving Their Stock Ahead Of Free Agency
With the midpoint of the 2023 regular season fast approaching, the 2023-24 free agent class is beginning to solidify. The coming class has long been considered one deep in pitching but light on potentially impactful hitters. While that evaluation has mostly held up throughout the first half of the season, a handful of surprising hitters are on track for a healthy payday this winter, should their performance hold up throughout the rest of the year.
Each of these players has appeared primarily as a DH in 2023, meaning they would offer prospective suitors little in the way of defensive value. Still, each could find himself among the top options for teams looking to add thump to their lineup without breaking the bank for the likes of Shohei Ohtani or Matt Chapman. Let’s take a look at five hitters who are helping to transform the complexion of the coming class of free agent hitters, in ascending order based on their wRC+ in 2023:
Justin Turner, Red Sox (121 wRC+):
After nine seasons with the Dodgers, the club’s longest tenured hitter departed Los Angeles over the offseason, eventually landing with the Red Sox on a complex two-year deal with an opt-out following the 2023 campaign. Despite concerns that the veteran infielder was headed for a downturn in terms of production as he entered his late thirties, Turner has managed to stave off father time through his first 67 games in Boston, slashing .278/.356/.451 across 289 plate appearances.
That quality slash line comes with excellent peripheral numbers, as well: his 14.5% strikeout rate remains elite, and his 9.7% walk rate is well above league average in its own right. His chase rate has actually improved since last season, as his 65th percentile rank in 2022 has leapt to the 80th percentile in 2023. Those improvements leave Turner with a .363 xwOBA that would be his best in a 162 game season since 2019. While there’s some cause for concern about the veteran’s power production going forward, as his barrel rate has dipped from 8% last season to just 6% in the current campaign, Turner seems all but certain to beat the $6.7MM he’d be leaving on the table by returning to the open market this offseason as long as he stays healthy and avoids a significant downturn in production in the second half.
Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (122 wRC+):
After posting the first below-average offensive season of his career (98 wRC+) with the Brewers in 2022, McCutchen decided to return to Pittsburgh, where the veteran outfielder was drafted in the first round of the 2005 draft, played for nine seasons, and earned an MVP award. He and the Pirates agreed to a one-year, $5MM deal that has worked out splendidly for both sides: McCutchen has slashed .262/.379/.424 across 256 plate appearances in his age-36 season while recording his 2,000th hit in a Pirates uniform as the club has bucked expectations in the first half of the season, posting a 34-36 record that leaves them just 2.5 games out of first place in the NL Central.
When McCutchen returns to free agency following the 2023 campaign, the decorated veteran figures to have recorded his 300th home run and 400th double in addition to his aforementioned 2,000th hit. On top of those career milestones, McCutchen has experienced nothing short of a career renaissance in returning to Pittsburgh. His 19.5% strikeout rate is the lowest its been since he left Pittsburgh following the 2017 season, while his 16% walk rate ranks sixth among all qualified hitters. His chase rate is similarly elite, ranking in the 95th percentile of qualifying hitters. Though he’s appeared in the outfield just eight times this season, McCutchen’s resurgence in 2023 seems all but guaranteed to allow him to continue his career into 2024 and beyond, whether that be with the Pirates or elsewhere.
J.D. Martinez, Dodgers (131 wRC+):
While the previous two veterans on this list have found success by combining roughly average power with elite plate discipline, Martinez has largely done the opposite throughout his career. Once among the league’s most fearsome sluggers as he challenged for a Triple Crown in the AL back in 2018 en route to a 4th place finish in MVP voting, Martinez’s final seasons in Boston saw the slugger’s production decline, as he posted a wRC+ of 116 from 2020-22 with an ISO of just .199 after posting marks .228 or higher in every season from 2014-2019.
After signing with the Dodgers on a one-year deal worth $10MM, Martinez seems to have rediscovered his power stroke in 2023. He’s already slammed 16 home runs in 55 games this season, matching the total he managed across 139 games in 2022. That being said, the renewed power has come at the cost of plate discipline: Martinez’s 5.6% walk rate would be his lowest over a full season since 2013, while his 29.9% strikeout rate would be the highest of his entire career. Still, it’s hard to argue with the results, as Martinez’s current wRC+ and xWOBA would both be his best since the aforementioned 2019 season if maintained over a full season while his ISO leads the majors among qualified hitters. In his return to free agency this offseason, Martinez figures to offer elite power production out of the DH spot, even entering his age-36 campaign.
Joc Pederson, Giants (149 wRC+):
The Giants raised some eyebrows this past offseason by extending Pederson a Qualifying Offer after a phenomenal 2022 campaign, but the lefty-swinging slugger has quieted doubters by improving on last season’s performance in 137 plate appearances in 2023. While his .237 ISO has dipped slightly as compared to last season’s .247 mark, Pederson has more than made up for it by raising his walk rate from an above-average 9.7% clip in 2022 to a whopping 14.6% this season as his 21.2% strikeout rate in 2023 would be his lowest since 2018.
What’s more, unlike the three veterans we’ve discussed to this point, Pederson will be just 31 years old on Opening Day 2024, making him a safer bet to stave off age-related decline than any of Turner, McCutchen, and Martinez. That being said, Pederson is not without flaws. He sports a worrisome platoon split, with just a .626 OPS against lefties in his career, and has largely been platoon-protected during his time with San Francisco. What’s more, he’s struggled to stay healthy this year, with two stints on the injured list already in the young 2023 campaign. Despite those flaws, though, Pederson’s lefty power figures to be represent one of the more impactful bats available via free agency this offseason.
Jorge Soler, Marlins (150 wRC+):
After struggling to a below-average .207/.295/.400 slash line in the first year of his three-year, $36MM pact with the Marlins last season, Soler has exploded in 2023 as one of the top power threats in the majors. His .298 ISO ranks fifth among all qualified major leaguers, behind only Martinez, Ohtani, Pete Alonso, and Yordan Alvarez. He’s already clobbered 20 home runs in just 282 plate appearances this season, matching the pace of his 48-homer campaign with the Royals in 2019. Soler has paired that elite power production with an elite 12.8% walk rate that would be a career best over a full season. While he’s still striking out at an elevated 24.1% clip, that figure is still a marked improvement over last season, during which he punched out in 29.4% of his plate appearances.
Like Pederson, Soler is in the midst of his age-31 season, meaning he could be an attractive candidate for multi-year offers from power-needy teams this offseason. Soler also boasts a more palatable platoon split: while he hits lefties far better than righties for his career, he’s still managed a .775 OPS against right-handers in his career, including a .807 figure in 2023. That being said, one potential cause for concern regarding Soler is his health, as the slugger spent the majority of the second half on the shelf with lower back spasms in 2022. If Soler can stay healthy and productive throughout the second half of the 2023 campaign, however, he could put his reputation as one of the sport’s most mercurial hitters to rest and emerge as one of the top offensive players in the coming free agent class, easily eclipsing the $9MM he would leave on the table by opting out of his deal with the Marlins to test free agency.
Giants Place Joc Pederson On Injured List, Activate Mike Yastrzemski
The Giants announced they’ve placed designated hitter Joc Pederson on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to May 13, due to a right hand contusion. Outfielder Mike Yastrzemski is back from his own 10-day IL stint to take the vacated active roster spot.
Pederson was injured on Friday when he was struck by a Scott McGough pitch in Arizona. Pederson sat out the rest of the series and apparently needs at least a week more of recovery time. That the Giants didn’t immediately place him on the IL and that x-rays were negative suggests it could be a relatively brief injured list stint, but San Francisco will still be down one of its better bats for the next few games.
Retained over the offseason via the qualifying offer, the lefty-hitting Pederson has had a productive start to his second year in the Bay Area. He’s connected on five home runs, four doubles and a triple over his first 26 games. Pederson has also drawn 14 walks in just 97 trips to the plate, leading to a quality .351 on-base percentage and .494 slugging in spite of a modest .235 batting average. It’s the kind of offensive rate production the Giants were hoping for, although Pederson is now headed to the IL for the second time. He also lost 11 days in April with inflammation in his right wrist.
Yastrzemski missed two weeks with a left hamstring strain. That halted an excellent .292/.333/.521 start to the season for San Francisco’s Opening Day center fielder. He’ll ease back to the roster, as he’s not in tonight’s starting lineup against the Phillies. He’ll be available for skipper Gabe Kapler off the bench and figures to return to the lineup in the next day or two.
Giants Notes: DeSclafani, Crawford, Pederson
Anthony DeSclafani left tonight’s game against the Diamondbacks due to a toe injury, Giants manager Gabe Kapler told media (including NBC Sports Bay Area). The right-hander cruised through five shutout innings before running into trouble in the sixth, allowing hits to his first three batters faced to load the bases. The third hit was a short grounder to the mound that Ketel Marte beat out for an infield single, and DeSclafani then exited the game after consulting with team trainers.
However, it wasn’t this particular play that caused the injury, but rather a somewhat unusual pre-existing problem. Kapler explained that “several weeks ago,” DeSclafani dropped a piano bench on his toe. “His toenail took the brunt of it, and so that was bothering him,” Kapler said. “He was able to continue pitching and felt good enough to keep rolling, but we had an eye on him as that nail was coming off and causing him quite a bit of pain. So monitored and monitored and finally went out there…and decided it was good to probably pull the plug on him there [tonight].”
DeSclafani clarified that his left big toe suffered the injury, and joked to MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado and other reporters that he is “not a fan of pianos” after the incident. The bench “literally squared my toe up” as DeSclafani was helping his young son off the bench, leading to a lot of discomfort for the veteran hurler.
Given that DeSclafani seems to have been pitching through this injury for some time, it makes it all the more impressive that he was able to post strong numbers prior to his last couple of outings. Even with eight earned runs allowed over 10 innings in his last two starts, DeSclafani still has a 3.06 ERA over 50 innings of work this season. Statcast metrics weren’t as impressed with his work and a .258 BABIP indicates some measure of good fortune, though DeSclafani was helping his cause with a 2.3% walk rate that ranks among the league’s best.
It remains to be seen if DeSclafani will be placed on the injured list to let his toe and toenail fully heal. The Giants have an off-day on May 18, so the club could potentially keep the other four starters on regular rest and then skip DeSclafani’s next turn through the rotation, giving him more time to recuperate without a minimum 15-day absence on the IL.
In better injury news for San Francisco, Brandon Crawford is expected to return from the 10-day IL on Sunday, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was the first to report. Crawford was (retroactively) placed on the IL on April 30 due to a right calf strain, though he didn’t expect to miss too much time. Indeed, Crawford is now poised to return to the Giants lineup after just two weeks.
After an underwhelming 2022 season, Crawford has gotten off to an even rougher start in 2023, hitting only .169/.244/.352 with four homers over 78 plate appearances. Even prior to the calf strain, Crawford had dealt with several minor injuries, beginning with some knee soreness that led to a cortisone injection and a lost week of Spring Training action. Crawford started the year on San Francisco’s Opening Day roster, but has also had some minor forearm and rib problems. It could be that this time on the IL acts as a reset for Crawford’s season, and allows him to properly heal from all of his nagging injuries.
X-rays were negative on Joc Pederson‘s right hand after the veteran slugger was hit by a pitch in Friday’s game, struck by a Scott McGough fastball in the eighth inning. According to Guardado, the Giants had some concern that Pederson had suffered a fracture, but instead he’ll just be day-to-day in his recovery. Pederson didn’t play in today’s game against Arizona.
Through 97 PA this season, Pederson has hit .235/.351/.494 with five homers, translating to a very solid 128 wRC+. He already missed 11 days on the IL in April due to right wrist inflammation, so he and the Giants can only hope that his hand’s soreness doesn’t result in another visit to the injured list.
Giants Activate Joc Pederson From 10-Day Injured List
The Giants activated outfielder/DH Joc Pederson from the 10-day injured list, with Heliot Ramos optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move. Pederson was expected to return today, as he’ll end up missing only one day beyond his minimum 10-day absence.
A bout of right wrist inflammation sidelined Pederson, but fortunately it looks like the injury was pretty minor in nature. Pederson will now return to the lineup and hope to build on a quality start to the season, as the slugger hit .242/.350/.545 with two homers over his first 40 plate appearances of 2023.
The Giants have been using Pederson exclusively as a designated hitter, and he’ll continue to get the bulk of DH at-bats for the remainder of the season (with a few looks as a corner outfielder and perhaps at first base as circumstances dictate). Darin Ruf and Michael Conforto have been getting most of the DH time in Pederson’s absence, but they will likely return to the first base and outfield duty respectively. Of course, the Giants are prone to mixing and matching even their regular starters based on matchups, so a right-handed batter like Ruf is probably likely to spell a lefty bat like Pederson or Conforto if a southpaw is on the mound.
This is Pederson’s second year in San Francisco, after hitting .274/.353/.521 with 23 homers over 433 PA in 2022. Pederson was a free agent last winter but instead opted for the one-year windfall of the qualifying offer, as he accepted the Giants’ QO and locked in a $19.65MM salary for the current season.
Giants Place Joc Pederson On IL With Right Wrist Inflammation
The Giants have placed outfielder Joc Pederson on the 10-day injured list with right wrist inflammation. They’ve recalled Matt Beaty to take his place on the active roster.
Pederson was off to a solid start for the Giants this year, slashing .242/.350/.545 with a pair of home runs through his first 40 plate appearances of the season. Losing him is a sizeable blow to the middle of the Giants lineup which is already depleted, with Mitch Haniger, Austin Slater and Roberto Perez all out, while Michael Conforto is also currently out of the lineup with a calf problem.
Giants manager Gabe Kapler told reporters, including Evan Webeck of the Mercury News, that the hope is Pederson’s stay on the IL will be a short one. The Giants certainly need him back, going into Saturday’s games they sit 5-8 in the NL West and are a looking up at the Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks all above them.
In Pederson’s place the team will turn to Beaty, an infielder/outfielder who signed with the team on a minor league deal this winter. Beaty has appeared for three teams in his career, both in the NL West, as he suited up for the Dodgers and then Padres. He holds a solid enough career .250/.321/.405 line in the big leagues, but struggled to a .093/.170/.163 line over 47 plate appearances for the Padres last season.