Mets More Focused On Rental Pitchers
The Mets are in the market for pitching, reports SNY’s Andy Martino, who notes that they’re more focused on rentals than players controlled beyond 2021. The Mets recently added ageless southpaw Rich Hill, who made his club debut yesterday with a five-inning start, but they remain in the market for pitching of all kinds. The Mets’ injured list for pitchers is extensive, with Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson, Robert Stock, Noah Syndergaard, Jordan Yamamoto, Robert Gsellman, Stephen Nogosek, Corey Oswalt, and Sean Reid-Foley. Dellin Betances and Joey Lucchesi are out for the season due to Tommy John surgery, but Carrasco is close to making his Mets debut.
According to Martino, the Mets “intend to check in” with the Nationals about ace Max Scherzer, though such a trade would be a tough pill to swallow for the Nats. Twins righty Jose Berrios is not a Mets target at this time, says Martino, in fitting with his point that New York prefers rentals so as not to deplete their farm system.
So what might the market for rental starting pitchers look like? Narrowing to teams with less than a 10% shot at the playoffs according to FanGraphs, Scherzer, Jon Gray, Zach Davies, Charlie Morton, Drew Smyly, Mike Minor, Matt Harvey, Adam Wainwright, Jordan Lyles, Tyler Anderson, J.A. Happ, Andrew Heaney, Jose Urena, Jake Arrieta, Carlos Martinez, Jon Lester, Alex Cobb, Dylan Bundy, Michael Pineda, Danny Duffy, Jose Quintana, Kwang Hyun Kim, and Trevor Cahill fit the bill. Not all of those pitchers are necessarily healthy or effective, but we’re casting a wide net.
Potential rental relievers include Raisel Iglesias, Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy, Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, Dan Winkler, Steve Cishek, Hansel Robles, Brad Hand, Josh Tomlin, Bryan Shaw, Greg Holland, Yimi Garcia, Alex Colome, Daniel Norris, Tony Watson, Jhoulys Chacin, Mychal Givens, Ross Detwiler, Joakim Soria, Chasen Shreve, Wade Davis, Andrew Miller, Derek Holland, Blake Parker, Shane Greene, and Erasmo Ramirez.
Twins Set Lofty Asking Price On Jose Berrios
The Twins’ woeful season has them positioned as deadline sellers, but there’s no guarantee they’ll move anyone controlled beyond the 2021 campaign. Minnesota entered the season on the heels of a pair of division titles, and the Twins have ample payroll space this winter as well as a core of controllable young players. The toughest choices for the Twins’ front office will be how to proceed with a group of players controlled only through the 2022 season — right-hander Jose Berrios chief among them.
Berrios has already drawn interest from multiple teams, and with good reason. The 27-year-old has pitched to a 3.48 ERA with a career-best 25.9 percent strikeout rate and a seven percent walk rate (the second-lowest of his career) through 108 2/3 innings. That innings tally ranks sixth in the American League and underscores the durability of Berrios, who is tenth in all of baseball in innings pitched dating back to 2017 and has never been on the Major League injured list.
The Twins have tried in the past to sign Berrios to a long-term deal, but he’s been vocal about wanting to advance the market for starting pitchers and now, 15 months from reaching free agency, sounds as though he’s far from inclined to take any sort of deal on an extension.
“[I will have been] waiting six years, almost seven, to get where every player wants to be — a free agent, able to maximize our value,” Berrios told Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune this weekend. “So it’s different now. We are in a good position, and we’ll see what the best deal is going to be.”
Berrios added that there haven’t been any extension talks but said he likes Minnesota and would be open should the Twins approach him with another extension scenario at some point. Putting together what would need to be a market-value extension before the July 30 trade deadline seems unlikely — particularly with the front office dedicating a good chunk of its time to exploring trades for rental players and also talking extension with center fielder Byron Buxton. Berrios, who has a 3.76 ERA with strong strikeout and walk rates over the past five seasons, surely took notice when Zack Wheeler inked a five-year, $118MM deal with the Phillies on the heels of a similar statistical track record (but with less durability).
Even if the two sides don’t come to terms on a contract extension, however, a Berrios trade is far from a foregone conclusion. Again, the Twins likely hope to contend in 2022, and Berrios would be a big part of that effort while pitching at an affordable rate. He’s earning $6MM in 2021, and even when that number soars beyond $10MM in his final offseason of arbitration, he’d be a bargain relative to his open-market value.
That makes him a highly desirable trade piece but also gives the Twins the ability to set a high asking price. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports that the Twins’ initial ask in return for Berrios from one interested team was a pre-arbitration player on the Major League roster and a pair of top 100 prospects. That meshes with reports from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and the New York Post that the Twins’ asking price on Berrios has been sky-high. Given the general dearth of impact starters on the trade market and the Twins’ outlook for the 2022 season, it’s understandable that they’d effectively be asking for a king’s ransom to relinquish Berrios.
Broadly speaking, it’d be a surprise it the Twins didn’t at the very least move rental pieces like Nelson Cruz, Michael Pineda and Hansel Robles in the coming weeks, but the asking price on Berrios will be as high as the asking price on any player who has a chance of being traded between now and July 30.
Twins Reportedly Disinclined To Trade Players Controllable Beyond 2021
The Twins have indicated to opposing teams they’re not keen on trading players under team control beyond this season, reports Buster Olney of ESPN (Twitter link). That’s not to say Minnesota’s cutting off talks on longer-term assets entirely, but it casts increasing doubt about the likelihood of stars like Byron Buxton and José Berríos — both of whom are controllable next season via arbitration — changing uniforms within the next couple weeks.
That’s a defensible and generally unsurprising position for the Twins front office to take. While the 2021 season has been a disaster for Minnesota, there’s little reason to think the club needs to embark on any sort of rebuild. The Twins won the AL Central in each of the last two years, and much of the core of those teams is controllable for 2022. At 39-52, the Twins are almost certainly not playoff-bound this season, but there’s enough talent on the roster to reasonably expect a bounceback next year.
The Mets and Cardinals are among the teams to have reached out to gauge Berríos’ availability. Both clubs have come away from those talks feeling the asking price to be extremely high, a reflection of Minnesota’s comfort hanging onto Berríos with an eye towards 2022.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported this week that the Twins had also recently opened extension talks with Buxton. Rosenthal suggested a Buxton trade could be a possibility if the two sides don’t agree on a long-term contract, but the upcoming offseason might be a more opportune time to market him to other clubs. That’d give the front office more than a couple weeks to field offers on the Gold Glover, and there’s still no clear timetable for Buxton’s return from a late June hand fracture. (If the Twins were to make Buxton available before July 30, the Phillies would be among the teams with interest, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network).
Berríos and Buxton are far from the only prominent controllable players on the Twins roster. Third baseman Josh Donaldson still has a pair of guaranteed seasons beyond the year (and a 2024 club option) on his free agent deal. The Mets were loosely linked to Donaldson last month, but it doesn’t seem those talks gained much traction.
Minnesota has a trio of productive, controllable relievers (Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Caleb Thielbar) who would draw attention from contenders, even though both Rogers and Thielbar have struggled this month. Given the year-to-year volatility of bullpen arms, there’s a case to be made the Twins should look to trade one or more of that group, but the front office certainly doesn’t have to do so. There’s never been much expectation of a deal involving Kenta Maeda, Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco, each of whom is under control through at least 2023 on extremely affordable contracts.
Even if the Twins wind up trading only impending free agents, they should still be active over the next two weeks. Michael Pineda’s strike-throwing acumen will make him a target for contenders in need of starting pitching, even as his swinging strike rate has taken a step backwards this season. The market for Nelson Cruz will probably be limited to American League clubs, but he remains an impact bat to plug into the middle of a lineup. Andrelton Simmons isn’t hitting much, but he’s still one of the game’s best defensive shortstops. Hansel Robles is an affordable middle relief target, and someone could take a flyer on Alex Colomé as a change of scenery candidate.
Minnesota’s disinclination to trade controllable players doesn’t entirely foreclose the chance of such a deal coming together. It remains possible another club meets the lofty ask for Berríos, and the front office probably wouldn’t be so absolute as to make a player like Buxton completely untouchable. But their broad reluctance to move long-term foundational pieces of the roster reinforces that the organization sees 2021 more as an aberration than as a suggestion their window of contention with that group is closing.
The Twins have ample financial flexibility moving forward, with just $49.3MM in guaranteed contracts on the books for 2022, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Minnesota looks likely to invest in the pitching staff this offseason and hope to get healthy, productive seasons from their still-strong position player group to contend next year in what might again be a relatively weak division.
Little Current Traction Between Mets, Twins In Donaldson Trade Discussions
JULY 9: There’s currently little traction between the Mets and Twins in discussions regarding either Donaldson or right-hander Jose Berrios, writes Dan Hayes of the Athletic.
JULY 4: While the Mets are expected to pursue upgrades in advance of the deadline, a Donaldson trade is not under consideration at this time, hears Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Martino, however, reiterates that the Mets continue to contemplate a potential Donaldson acquisition.
JULY 2: The Mets are targeting third base upgrades as the deadline approaches, and while many of their fans are likely hoping Kris Bryant becomes available, they’re understandably exploring every avenue. SNY’s Andy Martino writes today that the Mets have approached the Twins and “engaged in very preliminary talks” regarding Josh Donaldson.
As always, it’s worth noting that teams inquire on a wide variety of targets every year at the trade deadline and in the offseason, but preliminary talks don’t necessarily portend serious negotiations. Donaldson is in the second season of a four-year, $92MM contract signed in the 2019-20 offseason, so he’d make for an expensive acquisition for the Mets or any other club. As Martino points out, the Donaldson contract would push the Mets beyond the luxury-tax barrier, though owner Steve Cohen hasn’t been shy about his willingness to cross that threshold.
Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez currently has the Mets at about $13.5MM shy of the $210MM luxury barrier. Donaldson’s $23MM annual value — the luxury tax is based on contracts’ average annual value — would bring the Mets about $9.5MM north of the tax line. However, as a first-time offender, their penalty would be rather minimal: a 20-percent tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed the barrier, a 32 percent tax on the next $20MM and a 62.5 percent tax on anything thereafter. (Obviously, at this point in the season, it’s overwhelmingly unlikely that the Mets would take on so much salary that they’d cross the barrier by $40MM or more.)
The penalty on Donaldson alone would, in theory, be about $1.9MM. That’s not prohibitive in and of itself, necessarily, and even if the Mets were to make subsequent additions and cross the tax line by, say, $20MM, they’d still only be paying $4MM in penalties. The greater concern could be that under the current system, penalties increase in the second and third consecutive seasons of crossing the tax line. Taking on Donaldson — or any other players who bring them north of the line, Bryant included — would set the Mets up for stiffer penalties in 2022 and perhaps in 2023. Of course, that assumes the current luxury-tax system will remain in place with the next collective bargaining agreement, and with the current CBA set to expire Dec. 1, we can’t know that to be the case.
Turning to the player himself, Donaldson has been somewhat of a lightning rod in recent weeks (and at various other points in his career) for his outspokenness about pitchers’ usage of foreign substances. The slugger called out Yankees ace Gerrit Cole and pointed to his spin-rate drops following the league’s implementation of umpire checks, and he drew the ire of the White Sox and their fanbase for shouting “It’s not sticky anymore!” after belting a home run against Lucas Giolito this week.
Being outspoken is nothing new for Donaldson, of course, nor is the productive stretch in which he currently finds himself. The 35-year-old went down with a hamstring injury in the first game of the season for the Twins, but he’s been healthy since and has been on a tear at the plate for the past month. Donaldson is hitting .250/.345/.486 with 13 home runs overall, but he’s been on absolute fire since Memorial Day weekend, slashing .291/.383/.646 with eight homers and four doubles in his past 94 plate appearances. From a defensive standpoint, he’s not posting the elite marks that he has in recent years, but he’s been about average at the hot corner in the estimation of most metrics (-1 Defensive Runs Saved, -1 Ultimate Zone Rating, +1 Outs Above Average).
Donaldson’s contract pays him $21MM in 2021, 2022 and 2023, and he’s also owed at least the $8MM buyout of a $16MM club option for the 2024 campaign. We’re at the halfway point of the 186-game regular season today, so as of this moment, Donaldson is owed $10.5MM more on this year’s salary. Notably, his contract does include limited no-trade protection, though it’s not yet clear whether the Mets are on that list.
For the Mets, third base has been an issue all season long, due largely to injuries. J.D. Davis opened the year as the top option at the hot corner, and he posted a mammoth .390/.479/.610 slash in 48 plate appearances through his first 14 games. However, Davis is a sub-par defensive option there and drew some criticism for some key miscues (three errors in 94 innings) before going down to a hand/finger injury from which he’s yet to return. Jonathan Villar, Luis Guillorme, Brandon Drury, Jose Peraza, Jeff McNeil and even backup catcher Tomas Nido (for two innings) have all been part of the Mets’ third base carousel this season.
Donaldson would, of course, help to stabilize that roller coaster — provided he can remain healthy. He’s been on the injured list in three of the past four seasons, owing primarily to calf injuries. He did stay healthy for the duration of the 2019 season with the Braves, however, and Donaldson’s early trip to the injured list in 2021 wound up lasting just 11 days.
It’s been a miserable season for the Twins, who opened the year as expected contenders but instead find themselves at 33-46 — fresh off a sweep at the hands of the AL Central-leading White Sox. With the Twins now 14.5 games back from the division lead and 13 games out of an American League Wild Card spot, they look increasingly likely to be deadline sellers. Donaldson’s contract probably makes him too costly for most teams to consider, but the deep-pocketed Mets are at least a plausible suitor in a potential swap.
Mets Exploring Rotation Market, Open To Rentals
As injuries continue to mount on the Mets’ pitching staff — young lefty David Peterson is out up to eight weeks with an oblique strain — acting general manager Zack Scott spoke with reporters about his team’s approach at the trade deadline (links, with video, via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and SNY’s Andy Martino). While Scott took a generally open-minded approach, he did acknowledge the opportunity for upgrades in the starting rotation, given the health woes that have plagued the Mets’ staff this year.
“It’s like we’ve gone the reverse of where we were earlier, where we had several position player injuries early,” said Scott. “…I think the same thing could be said, especially for the starting pitchers. There’s uncertainty, so we need to make sure we put our best foot forward there.”
The Mets came to Spring Training with visions of an Opening Day rotation featuring Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman, Taijuan Walker and likely Peterson. In a best-case scenario, rehabbing flamethrower Noah Syndergaard would be back from Tommy John surgery by early summer.
That, of course, hasn’t been the case at all in 2021. Carrasco still hasn’t thrown a pitch thanks to recurring hamstring troubles. The Mets’ current hope is that he’ll return by month’s end, but Carrasco’s timeline has proven to be quite tenuous to this point in the season. Syndergaard, meanwhile, is not expected back until early September. The team’s top depth option, southpaw Joey Lucchesi, will miss the next year-plus due to Tommy John surgery. Right-hander Jordan Yamamoto is on the 60-day IL due to shoulder issues.
Given that context, Scott’s mention of starting pitching upgrades is perfectly sensible. However, Martino reports that the Mets are “reluctant” to move the top-tier talents from their minor league system in trades. That curbs the quality of pitcher the Mets can reasonably hope to acquire. Scott voiced a willingness to acquire rental players, noting that the cost of impending free agents is “most of the time fairly reasonable” due to that lack of club control.
The Mets will surely gauge the price of more controllable arms, but if they’re indeed reluctant to part with their very best prospects, such names will be difficult to obtain. For instance, the New York Post’s Ken Davidoff writes that the Mets have at least gauged the Twins’ asking price on right-hander Jose Berrios but consider it to be “sky-high.” The Mets have also been linked to Minnesota’s Josh Donaldson, so it’s only natural that they’d also see where things stand with Berrios. (Some fans will inevitably speculate about eating the Donaldson contract to get Berrios at a lower prospect cost, but there’d be little sense in the Twins tanking the value of their most appealing trade asset and instead leveraging him to dump the salary of a veteran who is performing quite well.)
A Berrios-caliber arm may be tough for the Mets to line up given their apparent reluctance to deal from the top of the farm, but Scott noted that the brilliant performance of his team’s top three starters also means he doesn’t need to prioritize a top-of-the-rotation arm. “It could be just someone that helps us stabilize things until we get healthier,” he said of a potential rotation acquisition.
Given the performances of deGrom, Stroman and Walker to this point in the season, it’s only natural that the Mets don’t feel pressured to pursue another high-caliber starter. They’ll surely keep themselves informed of the market for such arms. But with deGrom looking once again like the runaway Cy Young favorite and both Stroman (2.59 ERA, 3.64 FIP) and Walker (2.44 ERA, 3.05 FIP) both thriving, there’s an argument that a steady fourth starter — even a rental — is the most logical piece to prioritize for now. Speculatively speaking, available rentals in that mold would include the Twins’ Michael Pineda, the Rockies’ Jon Gray or the Pirates’ Tyler Anderson. D-backs righty Merrill Kelly also fits that general description, and he has an affordable club option for the 2022 campaign as well.
The Twins Are One Of The Keys To The Trade Deadline
The Twins have looked like sellers for much of the season, but as we’ve seen in recent years, most clubs prefer to wait until closer to the deadline to chart a course. As noted here recently, Minnesota faces almost exclusively AL Central clubs leading up to the July 30 trade deadline. If there was a 2019 Nationals-esque surge in this group, now would be the time to set it in motion.
The Twins started off taking two of three against an Indians club whose rotation is in tatters, but they’ve dropped their first two against the White Sox to fall 13.5 games out of first place in the division. For a team that needs to be nearly flawless over this pivotal stretch of divisional opponents — particularly versus Cleveland and Chicago — dropping three of the first five games isn’t a great start.
Given that this was a team most expected to contend for the Central, at the very least, it’s not at all surprising that there are several players who’d interest contenders. In fact, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote in yesterday’s 20 Questions column that the Twins are “the team almost every contender is waiting on.” Minnesota still plays the White Sox eight times, the Tigers a whopping 11 times and the Royals three times before the trade deadline, so maybe they can pull off the macro version of last night’s staggering Angels comeback, but it’s becoming increasingly likely that this goes the direction most onlookers have expected for awhile now.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at what the Twins could do as the deadline draws nearer…
The Rentals
Michael Pineda, RHP ($10MM salary): Pineda is currently on the shelf with inflammation in his right elbow. He’s been out since June 14, but he’s slated for a rehab start in Triple-A today. Assuming there are no setbacks, Pineda would be one of the most attractive options on the rental market. He’s an established mid-rotation arm who has performed well with the Twins when he’s been able to take the mound (3.86 ERA, 3.92 FIP in 228 2/3 innings over 42 starts). Pineda did get hit with a PED suspension in 2019, although it was one of the rare instances where the league seems to have believed some of his plea of innocence, as MLB reduced his ban from 80 to 60 games. Many undoubtedly recall Pineda’s pine tar-covered hat in his Yankees days and will wonder about him in connection to the current crackdown on foreign substances. On that note, it’s worth pointing out that his spin rates were below-average in the first place and had actually decreased since signing with the Twins. We can’t know anything for sure, of course, but on paper he doesn’t look like your typical “Spider Tack” case.
Nelson Cruz, DH ($13MM): Happy 41st birthday, Nelson! The Boomstick is still swinging it as well as ever, slashing .307/.378/.585 with 18 home runs, 11 doubles and his first triple since 2018. Cruz has been 57 percent better than a league-average hitter, per wRC+, and he’s cut his strikeout rate from 25.7 percent in his first two years with Minnesota down to 19.1 percent in 2021. His market will be limited to AL clubs unless some NL GM really, really wants an interleague/World Series DH and an occasional pinch-hitter. (We’ve all learned never to rule anything out with A.J. Preller by now.) AL contenders who could use an upgrade at DH include the A’s, Blue Jays, Rays and White Sox. Of course, Cruz’s salary may be steep for the A’s and Rays, and it’s hard to imagine the Twins shipping Cruz to their top division rival.
Andrelton Simmons, SS ($10MM): Simmons hasn’t been great with the bat in Minnesota — .245/.316/.328, 81 wRC+ — but the defense looks sharp. Simmons’ defensive metrics took a tumble in both 2019 and 2020 after he suffered a Grade 3 ankle sprain and then re-sprained that ankle a second time. In 2021, he’s third among all players, regardless of position, with 12 Outs Above Average, per Statcast. He’s also notched a plus-2 mark in Defensive Runs Saved after registering minus-2 in that regard in just 265 innings last summer. The ankle appears healthy, and his range has seemingly improved as a result. If you want to upgrade your infield defense, they don’t come much better than this.
Alex Colome, RHP ($6.25MM): Colome was the Twins’ biggest offseason pickup in the bullpen, but the outstanding fortune he had on balls in play with the White Sox went up in smoke in 2021. Teams were surely wary of Colome’s .211 average on balls in play over the past two seasons with the ChiSox, which quite likely why the Twins were able to wait him out and get him for just a year and $6.25MM. Colome immediately stumbled out of the gates in Minnesota, blowing a game in his first appearance and floundering through a poor overall showing in April. He’s posted a respectable 3.60 ERA with a huge 58.1 percent grounder rate in 20 innings since, but he doesn’t look anywhere near as impressive as he did for the South Siders. Presumably, the asking price here wouldn’t be too high.
Hansel Robles, RHP ($2MM): Robles’ numbers would’ve looked better had this breakdown been written before his past two appearances, when he’s been tagged for four runs in two innings. But the right-hander is still sporting a 3.63 ERA and 48.3 percent ground-ball rate — albeit with a slightly below-average strikeout rate and a bloated 13.6 percent walk rate. He’s also experienced a rebound in fastball velocity after a dip in 2020, and he’s on a cheap enough contract that a contending club with luxury tax concerns might be particularly intrigued.
J.A. Happ, LHP ($8MM): Happ got out to a decent start in 2021, but he’s been shelled for most of his past nine appearances. His best performance in that stretch was his most recent, when he held Cleveland to a pair of runs on six hits and no walks with seven punchouts in six innings. If he can string together a few more nice outings like that, maybe some club would pick him up for a negligible return (i.e. partial salary relief) to try to stabilize the back of its rotation.
More Controllable Possibilities
Jose Berrios, RHP ($6.1MM, controllable through 2022): If the Twins were to make Berrios available, he might be the most coveted name on the market. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported recently that the Cardinals have inquired and, unsurprisingly, found the asking price to be quite high. Still, Passan writes that a growing number of executives around the game expect the Twins to be willing to seriously consider a trade. That’s likely indicative of the level of interest in Berrios, as the Twins don’t seem likely to embark on a total rebuild even if they do sell. They’d likely seek young controllable, big-league ready talent in a trade of Berrios, who boasts a 3.41 ERA and matching 3.40 FIP with a career-best 26.5 percent strikeout rate and a 6.4 percent walk rate (the second-lowest of his career). His current salary is eminently affordable, and even with an aggressive raise in arbitration, he’d still be a bargain next year. Any contending club would love to have Berrios — it’s just a matter of how strong the offers are and whether the Twins are willing to compromise their 2022 roster by trading the best pitcher they’ve developed in the past decade.
Taylor Rogers, LHP ($6MM, controllable through 2022): Rogers has put a shaky (by his standards) 2020 season behind him. Through his first 32 innings, he’s sitting on a 2.53 ERA that’s actually higher than his FIP, xFIP and SIERA. Rogers’ 32.6 percent strikeout rate is back in line with his 2019 level, and this year’s 3.9 percent walk rate is the best of his career. He has the fifth-best chase rate of any qualified reliever in MLB. As with Berrios, Rogers could play a key role for the 2022 Twins, so the offer would need to be strong. But relievers with this combination of swing-and-miss ability and command — particularly lefties — are tough to come by, so the demand will be sizable. This is also a Twins front office that generally hasn’t been keen on committing too much to any individual reliever, and Rogers’ final arbitration raise will push his salary into the $8-9MM range. A trade to a contender is very plausible. (As an aside, it’d be quite the fun story to see twin brothers co-closing games for a contending club. We’re all looking at you, Giants.)
Tyler Duffey, RHP ($2.2MM, controllable through 2022): Duffey hasn’t been the dominant setup man he was in 2019-20, but he’s controlled another season on a cheap salary and has still been effective in 2021. There’s no sugar-coating that his strikeout and walk rates from 2019-20 have dropped from 34.2 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively, to 22 percent and 12.6 percent in 2021. He’s improved both a bit over his past 15 outings, though, and only allowed two runs in that time. Overall, he has a 3.52 ERA and 3.84 FIP in 30 2/3 innings. As with Robles, if you’re a contending team with luxury tax concerns, taking a chance on a cheap reliever with a bigger track record probably has some appeal.
Caleb Thielbar, LHP ($700K, controllable through 2024): A Minnesota native and feel-good comeback story from 2020, Thielbar can be controlled another three years beyond the current campaign. That might make dealing him counterintuitive should the Twins be looking for a quick turnaround after a theoretical summer sale, but Thielbar will turn 35 this offseason and relievers are volatile in the first place. The Twins brought him back from indie ball last year, so there’s a “playing with house money” element to marketing him. He’s pitched 50 1/3 innings of 2.86 ERA ball with a 30.1 percent strikeout rate and an 8.1 percent walk rate since returning last summer. Fielding-independent metrics largely support the ERA. With multiple contenders sitting right on the luxury-tax precipice, Thielbar could be an under-the-radar but highly attractive chip for the Twins.
Longer Shots
Like Berrios, Rogers and Duffey, Byron Buxton is controlled only through the 2022 season. However, Buxton is on the injured list after an errant fastball fractured his left hand in a recent at-bat, and it’s nearly impossible to envision the Twins moving their most talented player at such a low point. The durability concerns with Buxton are understandable, and his repeated absences in 2021 have been a major factor in the Twins’ current predicament, but trading him doesn’t feel realistic.
It’s a similar story with righty Kenta Maeda, who has been hit hard this season and spent time on the injured list with an adductor strain. The Twins control him into 2023, and even if his struggles as a starter continue, his $3.25MM base salary is plenty reasonable if he’s in a bullpen or hybrid role. He doesn’t need to be the ace-caliber arm he was in 2020 to justify his contract, and the flexibility he provides the Twins moving forward carries more value than what they’d receive by selling low in a trade.
Right fielder Max Kepler and second baseman Jorge Polanco would no doubt attract interest thanks to their long-term deals, but Kepler is in the midst of his own down season and controlled affordably all the way through 2024. Polanco had a dismal three-week slump to open the year but has hit quite well (.275/.345/.483) since that time. He’s signed through 2025, so there’s little reason for the Twins to consider anything there.
Josh Donaldson is hitting .299/.382/.662 over the past month and has homered in three straight games, but he’s also 35 years old and only in the second season of a four-year, $92MM contract that affords him limited no-trade protection. It’s tough to see something coming together with all the money still owed to him.
The Twins might welcome a taker for strikeout-plagued slugger Miguel Sano, who is hitting .195/.280/.435 this season with a 37 percent punchout rate. But Sano is making $11MM this year, $9.25MM in 2022, and is also owed a $2.75MM buyout on a $14MM option for the 2023 season.
—
With a deep reserve of enticing position prospects, headlined by current big leaguers Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach, plus several key pieces under long-term control and plenty of payroll space this winter, the Twins shouldn’t be expected to completely tear the roster down. It’d make sense to target some controllable arms, however, as they’ve dealt with injuries to several of their top pitching prospects in 2021 (Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic and Matt Canterino among them).
At the end of the day, the Twins might prefer to hold out a bit longer before waving the proverbial white flag, but they’d need a historic rally to overcome a 13.5-game deficit in the division or a 12.5-game deficit in the Wild Card race at this point in the season. It increasingly feels like a matter of time before they start moving some short-term veterans, with the greater question being how aggressively they’ll sell rather than whether they’ll sell at all.
Quick Hits: Sticky Stuff Crackdown, Cardinals, Verlander
As we approach trade season, teams are burdened with the overwhelming task of re-evaluating the league in the wake of the crackdown on illegal substances. Broad strokes, evaluators will be more trusting of pitchers who rely on two-seamers and sinkers, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney. Unsurprisingly, those pitchers who have taken to the recent trend of high-velocity heaters up in the zone and wicked curveballs diving away will be watched more closely. The next month will obviously provide important data points for potential buyers, but looking at how players have struggled and/or succeeded in the first few months of the year will also be heavily scrutinized by teams looking to find players on the rebound. In other MLB news….
- The Cardinals are doing their best to patch together a rotation in the wake of Jack Flaherty‘s extended absence, but they’re also exploring their options outside the organization. They have reached out to the Twins about Jose Berrios and the Rangers for Kyle Gibson, but the price for Berrios was “high,” and presumably, the same will be true of Gibson, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. With very few difference-making arms likely to be available, Berrios and Gibson are sure to be in high demand. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak spoke of the Cardinals’ desire to win, but “not at the cost of our future.” While that’s a reasonable mode of thinking, such a mind-set isn’t likely to procure an arm like Berrios or Gibson.
- Justin Verlander hasn’t rule out the possibility of returning to the Detroit Tigers before his career runs out, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Of course, Verlander needs to get healthy first. He will be a free agent at the end of the season, however, free to pursue a return to Detroit, should that be his desire. Verlander played in Detroit for 13 seasons. He ranks 2nd in Tigers’ history for rWAR among pitchers, 2.7 rWAR behind Hal Newhouser. He is fifth in Tigers’ history in games started with 380 and 2nd in total strikeouts with 2,373.
Twins Haven’t Recently “Initiated” Extension Talks With Jose Berrios
Though the Twins are getting some notable reinforcements back from the injured list in the coming days, the 26-39 club has a big hill to climb to even approach the postseason race. With this in mind, speculation has swirled around the Twins as a trade deadline seller, and Jose Berrios stands out as a major potential trade chip depending on how big of a reload Minnesota wishes to make.
Berrios has one final year of arbitration eligibility remaining before hitting free agency in the 2022-23 offseason. As to whether or not his time in Minnesota could continue beyond the 2022 season, SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson reports (Twitter link) that the Twins haven’t “initiated any talks in recent weeks” with Berrios’ representatives at Wasserman about a potential contract extension. Of course, this might not be that surprising a detail considering that most players prefer to not discuss contractual matters in-season.
If such extension talks did place, it would seem that the Twins would be making such overtures as something of a last-ditch effort to lock up Berrios, and if a deal couldn’t be reached, the club would be more open to moving him prior to the July 30 trade deadline. The issue with that scenario, however, is that Minnesota isn’t under any immediate pressure to make a decision on Berrios’ future, since he is still under contract through 2022. The Twins could wait until the offseason to shop Berrios to a wider market of interested teams, or they could take the time to revisit extension talks heading into their final year of control over Berrios.
Even if neither a trade or an extension is worked out, it wouldn’t be out of the question that the Twins would just keep Berrios in the fold for 2022. Despite this season’s struggles, it would seem like Minnesota is still planning to regroup and make another run at contention next year, so Berrios has plenty of value in the Twins’ own rotation going forward.
The 27-year-old Berrios is having another solid season, with a 3.49 ERA/3.61 SIERA and an above-average strikeout rate (26%) and walk rate (6.4%) over 77 1/3 innings. The overall Statcast metrics aren’t quite as positive, as Berrios’ xwOBA and hard-hit ball numbers have been subpar for the second consecutive season, but the righty has continued to be a durable and effective arm in the front end of Minnesota’s rotation.
Back in March 2019, Berrios said the Twins had made him an extension offer that he declined, though he was open to more negotiations. “We’re waiting for the best for both sides. If it doesn’t happen this year, maybe next year,” Berrios said. Rather than a contract extension, the two sides went to a hearing the next spring to determine Berrios’ salary for his first arb-eligibility, with the Twins winning the hearing and paying Berrios $4.025MM rather than his desired $4.4MM figure. This past winter, the two sides reached a deal to avoid arbitration, with Berrios receiving a $6.1MM salary for the 2021 season.
Even with another raise in his final arb year, Berrios is still a very affordable option for any team looking for rotation help, which only elevates his trade value. The Twins could be hard-pressed to decline if another club makes a truly spectacular trade offer for Berrios, despite his importance to the 2022 team. Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, and Matt Shoemaker are all scheduled to be free agents this winter, so moving Berrios would create another hole for the Twins to address in their starting staff.
Twins Win Arbitration Hearing Against Jose Berrios
The Twins have won their arbitration hearing against right-hander Jose Berrios, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. He’d filed for a $4.4MM salary but will now be paid at the $4.025MM figure submitted by Minnesota.
Berrios, 25, just wrapped up his first 200-inning season and turned in his third consecutive sub-4.00 ERA season, working to a career-best 3.68 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9. The former No. 32 overall pick has emerged as Minnesota’s most effective starter since cementing himself as a big league regular, pitching to a combined 3.80 ERA with a strikeout per frame through 538 1/3 innings and earning a pair of All-Star bids along the way.
Berrios’ relatively affordable salary for the upcoming season only serves to underscore the difficulty that first-time-arbitration-eligible starters have had in moving the needle forward. Dallas Keuchel is still the only first-time-eligible starting pitcher to topple the $4.35MM benchmark set by Dontrelle Willis way back in 2006, and it took Keuchel winning a Cy Young Award to do so. Others starters who have been in position to best that mark (e.g. Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Aaron Nola) have instead opted for multi-year deals.
That there’s only one example of a pitcher besting Willis’ mark — and that it took extraordinary circumstances — emphatically drives home the reason that teams are willing to go to hearings over what appear to be such trivial sums. The Twins, like other clubs that have drawn a hard line in comparable situations, surely care less about immediate cost savings than they do about preserving the standards that allow arbitration salaries to remain so manageable.
If the Twins (and every other club) simply conceded and met the player in the middle, those contractual agreements would be used as data points in future arbitration negotiations. Were it not for teams continually drawing a hard line, the Twins and Berrios would’ve been arguing over figures much greater than the ones discussed in today’s hearing. That’s not to suggest that teams are in the right or wrong to take such firm stances — even against their best players — but rather to point out that their motivation for doing so is rather obvious when considering the full breadth of the arbitration mechanism.
As for Berrios, he doesn’t hold any hard feelings toward the Twins organization, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North Radio tweets. Berrios has made it clear in the past that he’s keenly aware of the business side of the equation. He said as much when revealing last spring that he turned down an extension overture from the Twins, and it’s surely no coincidence that the number he filed would’ve bested the aforementioned Willis benchmark — even if only by a narrow margin of $50,000. Again, every slight step forward would factor into future negotiations for other first-time-eligible pitchers.
The Twins and Berrios can, of course, continue to discuss a long-term deal. Minnesota controls him through the 2022 season, leaving plenty of time to broker a deal. Given his previous quotes about the financial side of the game — “I have to manage my business, too. … We’re waiting for the best for both sides,” Berrios told Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune last spring — it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll be signing on for a team-friendly discount.
2020 Arbitration Filing Numbers
MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.
After a busy day of dealmaking, 161 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 29 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint. It’s hardly an unusual number of unresolved cases at this stage, but there are quite a few high-dollar situations still at issue and teams have increasingly adopted a “file-and-trial” approach to the process in recent years. (That is, no negotiations on single-season salaries after the deadline to exchange figures.)
We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:
- George Springer, Astros: $22.5MM versus $17.5MM (Jeff Passan of ESPN.com, via Twitter)
- J.T. Realmuto, Phillies: $12.4MM versus $10MM (Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly, via Twitter)
- Trevor Story, Rockies: $11.5MM versus $10.75MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Joc Pederson, Dodgers: $9.5MM versus $7.75MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox: $8.975MM versus $8.3MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Nick Ahmed, Diamondbacks: $6.95MM versus $6.6MM (Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, via Twitter)
- Shane Greene, Braves: $6.75MM versus $6.25MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Josh Hader, Brewers: $6.4MM versus $4.1MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Chris Taylor, Dodgers: $5.8MM versus $5.25MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Hector Neris, Phillies: $5.2MM versus $4.25MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Max Muncy, Dodgers: $4.675MM versus $4MM (Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, via Twitter)
- Jose Berrios, Twins: $4.4MM versus $4.025MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox: $4.15MM versus $3.4MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Archie Bradley, Diamondbacks: $4.1MM versus $3.625MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Pedro Baez, Dodgers: $4.0MM versus $3.5MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)