Giants Notes: Devers, Birdsong, Rotation, Outfield
Rafael Devers made the first start of his career at first base for the Giants this week and, coincidentally or not, belted his first two home runs in nearly a month the following day. The recently acquired Giants infielder has now tallied three straight multi-hit games an looks to be emerging from a lengthy slump. He said after his first base debut that he briefly felt a bit nervous at his new position but quickly settled in (link via Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle).
With Devers now ticketed for more regular work at first base, Wilmer Flores seems likely to pick up more DH at-bats. He’d been struggling at the plate while playing the infield corners (primarily first base) over the past month. For a player who struggled through knee troubles all last season before that knee ended his 2024 campaign, getting off his feet a bit more in the DH spot could prove beneficial. Devers is also playing through a back issue, but the two can perhaps now share time between the two spots in the short term. Devers added after last night’s game that he thinks he’s a better hitter when playing in the field, noting that it “keeps my head out of just thinking about the next at-bat.”
While Devers will surely be their biggest acquisition of the summer, there’s still room for the 54-49 Giants to upgrade the roster. They’ve been looking into second base options (Isiah Kiner-Falefa reportedly among them), and some recent struggles near the back of the rotation — coupled with lefty Kyle Harrison‘s inclusion in the Devers return — have created some questions on the starting staff as well.
[Related: San Francisco Giants Trade Deadline Outlook]
San Francisco optioned right-hander Hayden Birdsong to Triple-A Sacramento earlier this week after a start in which he yielded five runs to the Braves (in large part because of four walks) without recording an out. That proved to be the tipping point, but Birdsong’s struggles extended well beyond that one nightmare outing. The 23-year-old was the talk of spring training thanks to a dominant performance and looked like a revelation out of the bullpen early in the season. San Francisco moved him into the rotation in late May, and the early returns were good: five starts, 25 innings, 3.24 ERA, 24.3% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate.
Things went downhill from there. Birdsong was tagged for 14 runs in 12 1/3 innings across his next three starts. He bounced back with a strong performance against the A’s but then bottomed out with this week’s collapse versus Atlanta. All told, he has a 10.38 ERA (22 runs, 20 earned) over his past five starts — a span of just 17 1/3 innings.
The Giants are still weighing their options to replace Birdsong, but the back of the rotation’s struggles don’t end there. Justin Verlander finally picked up his first win as a Giant yesterday but did so while scattering five walks over five scoreless innings. He’s started 17 games and pitched to a 4.70 ERA over the life of 84 1/3 innings. Since returning from a monthlong IL stint due to a pectoral strain on June 18, Verlander has a 5.29 ERA with a 19.2% strikeout rate.
Verlander is the clear fourth starter behind Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and breakout righty Landen Roupp at the moment. In-house alternatives like Trevor McDonald, Carson Ragsdale and Mason Black have posted underwhelming results in Triple-A. Righty Carson Seymour has been working in long relief but pitched pretty well as a starter in Triple-A. There’s certainly room to add a starter to solidify the back of the staff and provide some insurance against an injury to Webb or Ray — either of which would be a devastating loss.
Both Rubinand John Shea and Kerry Crowley of the San Francisco Standard called out a right-handed-hitting outfielder as a potential area for upgrade this week. It’s a sensible pursuit, given Mike Yastrzemski‘s longstanding struggles against left-handed pitching. The Giants have given 110 plate appearances to 23-year-old Luis Matos this year, but he’s posted just a .173/.218/.375 batting line in that time.
Righty-swinging outfielders expected to be available include Minnesota’s Harrison Bader, Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox, the Orioles’ Ramon Laureano and perhaps Chas McCormick of the Astros or Adolis Garcia of the Rangers. Not all of those outfielders will change hands, of course. The White Sox would very likely need to pay down some of Robert’s salary, but they’re willing to do so and he’s caught fire at the plate recently, making him a more interesting option than he might’ve been even one month ago.
Giants Option Tyler Fitzgerald
The Giants announced that infielder Tyler Fitzgerald has been optioned to Triple-A Sacramento. That opens an active roster spot for right-hander Justin Verlander to be reinstated from the paternity list.
The move highlights what a seachange it’s been for Fitzgerald compared to last year. In 2024, he popped 15 home runs in just 96 games. He slashed .280/.334/.497 for a wRC+ of 132. He stole 17 bases and bounced around to various positions on the field, mostly at shortstop.
Coming into 2025, the Giants signed Willy Adames to cover shortstop but seemed likely to have Fitzgerald as their everyday second baseman. For the first month of the season, that was how it played out. Through the end of April, he had a .284/.341/.432 batting line and 119 wRC+ while holding down the keystone.
Unfortunately, he then hit the injured list due to a left rib fracture. He returned a couple of weeks later but has been slumping badly since then. He has stepped to the plate 110 times since coming off the IL but with a brutal line of .186/.245/.227 in that time.
The Giants have apparently decided that Fitzgerald needs a rest away from the big leagues, so he’ll get regular playing time in Sacramento as he tries to get back on track. In his absence, the second base playing time will likely go to some combination of Christian Koss, Brett Wisely and Casey Schmitt, though Schmitt is currently covering third base while Matt Chapman is on the injured list.
Neither Koss nor Wisely has much major league success thus far. Koss has a .219/.269/.260 line in 81 plate appearances with Wisely at .212/.256/.312 through 415 trips. Ideally, Fitzgerald will get back in a groove fairly quickly, or perhaps Chapman can get healthy in short order and bump Schmitt over to second base. With the deadline just over a month away, the Giants have some time to suss out the situation and decide if the infield is something they need to address at the deadline.
For Fitzgerald personally, it’s likely to impact his trajectories to arbitration and free agency. He came into 2025 with exactly one year of major league service time, which would put him on pace for exactly two years of service after 2025. A major league season is 186 days long and a player needs 172 days of service to get a full year, so it’s still possible for Fitzgerald to get to that two-year line, though he would have to be recalled in the next two weeks and stay up the rest of the way.
Photo courtesy of Kelley L Cox, Imagn Images
Giants To Place Justin Verlander On Injured List
The Giants are placing Justin Verlander on the 15-day injured list with a pectoral nerve issue, manager Bob Melvin told the teams’s beat after today’s loss to Kansas City (relayed by Shayna Rubin of The San Francisco Chronicle). They haven’t announced a corresponding move.
Melvin indicated that the Giants are confident it’ll only cost Verlander two turns through the rotation (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). They can backdate the assignment to May 19, so he’d first be eligible to return on June 3. The veteran righty’s tenure in San Francisco has gotten out to a pedestrian beginning. He’s averaging just over five innings per start and has tallied a 4.33 earned run average in 10 appearances. He’s striking out only 18.2% of batters faced, though his 11.4% swinging strike rate is up from the 9-10% range of the previous two seasons.
It’s a moderate improvement over Verlander’s final season in Houston. He posted a 5.48 ERA with an 18.7% strikeout percentage through 90 1/3 innings. Injuries have become increasingly prevalent for the 42-year-old future Hall of Famer. Verlander began the 2024 season on the IL with shoulder inflammation. He was knocked back out in mid-June with a neck problem that was initially expected to be minor. It ended up costing him two months.
Verlander was rocked over seven starts after returning from the neck injury. He allowed more than eight earned runs per nine innings while opponents raked at a .322/.369/.483 clip. The Astros felt they couldn’t carry him on the playoff roster given the form he carried into October. It was an unfortunate end to an illustrious run in Houston. The three-time Cy Young winner signed with the Giants for $15MM as a free agent.
The Giants had operated with the same rotation for the season’s first six weeks. Verlander slotted alongside Robbie Ray, Landen Roupp and Jordan Hicks behind Logan Webb. They made an (arguably overdue) swap of Hicks for Hayden Birdsong over the weekend, pushing Hicks to the bullpen after he posted a 6.55 ERA through nine starts.
Verlander would have been lined up to take the ball on Saturday. The Giants have an off day tomorrow, so they could theoretically delay their decision on a fifth starter by a couple days if they wanted to move Ray up from Sunday’s start. They probably won’t move Hicks back to the rotation for what they expect to be a minimal absence from Verlander.
Kyle Harrison is in the big league bullpen after working out of the Triple-A rotation for much of the year. Prospect Carson Whisenhunt has a dominant 52:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio over nine starts in the minors. He’s not on the 40-man roster, though, so the Giants may not want to bring him up yet. Carson Seymour, Trevor McDonald and Mason Black are all in the Triple-A rotation and occupy 40-man roster spots. McDonald started yesterday, while Seymour is lined up to take the ball today, which probably rules them out for a promotion. Whisenhunt pitched on Monday; Black’s most recent start came last Friday.
Verlander: Astros Were Not “In A Place To Make An Offer” This Offseason
Justin Verlander reportedly drew interest from several suitors over the offseason, but the Astros, his former team, were the only club known to have spoken with the three-time Cy Young winner before he signed a one-year, $15MM contract with the Giants. Yet, a new story from The Athletic’s Chandler Rome suggests a reunion between Verlander and Houston was never even close to a reality. Although the two sides kept in touch over the winter – Verlander told Rome he spoke with owner Jim Crane “a lot” and that they had “mutual interest” in a deal – the Astros did not make the veteran an offer.
According to Verlander, he continued his talks with Crane after the Giants made it clear they were interested in his services. At that point, however, Verlander says Crane told him that the Astros were not “even in a place to make an offer.” To some, this might not come as much of a surprise. After all, one could argue that the writing was on the wall for Verlander in Houston as soon as the Astros left him off their postseason roster last October. On the other hand, Verlander himself did not see it that way. He told Rome that he did not truly consider, at that time, the possibility that his final start with the Astros last season might be his final ever outing with the club.
The Astros paid the luxury tax for the first time in 2024. While Crane told reporters (including Rome) in November that the team had “the wherewithal” to continue spending at the same level in 2025, Houston ultimately ended up cutting payroll significantly. According to the estimates from RosterResource, the club’s payroll is $25MM lower right now than it was at the end of last season, while their luxury tax payroll is about $3.5MM below the first tax threshold. It’s not as if GM Dana Brown had no money to spend this past offseason; he signed Christian Walker to a three-year, $60MM deal. However, the Astros also let Alex Bregman walk and shaved payroll by trading Kyle Tucker. Meanwhile, Brown’s only notable addition to a starting rotation that certainly could have used some help was Hayden Wesneski, acquired in the Tucker trade. The 27-year-old right-hander comes with promise and former top prospect upside, but he has never started more than 11 games in a season. He is scheduled to make his Astros debut this evening against the Giants.
All that to say, it sure seems like the luxury tax was the primary obstacle that got in the way of a reunion between Verlander and the Astros. Rome’s reporting suggests the same. While neither Crane nor Brown ever explicitly stated that the team needed to get back below the first luxury tax threshold, Rome reports that the club operated as if that were the case.
So, was last season the end of the line for Verlander and the Astros? Not necessarily. There is clearly a strong relationship between the two. Crane’s Astros have traded for Verlander twice, extended him once, and re-signed him in free agency once. Meanwhile, Verlander told Rome he would “always entertain the idea of coming back” to Houston. With that said, he is now 42 years old, and it’s not far-fetched to wonder if this season could be his last. Then again, Verlander hasn’t given any indication that he’s thinking about retirement. Last fall, he told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) that he felt like he still had “a lot more to give pitching-wise.” He showed as much in his first start of the 2025 season, giving the Giants five innings of two-run ball, striking out five, and walking just one. If Verlander is looking for a team again next winter, and the Astros are willing to spend a bit more cash, it would hardly be surprising to see the two linked once again.
MLBTR Podcast: The Jeff Hoffman Situation, Justin Verlander, And The Marlins’ Rotation
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Jeff Hoffman signing with the Blue Jays after his agreements with the Orioles and the Braves fell apart, both due to concerns relating to his physical (2:05)
- The Giants signing Justin Verlander (12:00)
- The Marlins lose Braxton Garrett for the year (15:55)
- The Mariners signing Donovan Solano (26:10)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- With the Reds getting a new TV deal, can they sign Anthony Santander or Jurickson Profar? (31:30)
- What do you make of the Nationals‘ offseason so far? (37:55)
- What would a Kyle Tucker extension look like for the Cubs? (44:30)
Check out our past episodes!
- Brent Rooker’s Extension, Gavin Lux, And Catching Up On The Holiday Transactions – listen here
- Kyle Tucker To The Cubs, And Trades For Devin Williams And Jeffrey Springs – listen here
- Winter Meetings Recap – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Giants Sign Justin Verlander
January 13: The Giants made the deal official over the weekend and introduced Verlander to the media today. Per Jon Heyman of The New York Post, in addition to the $15MM salary, Verlander’s deal also contains awards bonuses and a full no-trade clause.
January 7: The Giants are in agreement with Justin Verlander on a one-year deal, pending a physical. Verlander, a client of ISE Baseball, is reportedly guaranteed $15MM.
The future Hall of Famer will play his age-42 season in San Francisco. Verlander has previously suggested he hopes to pitch until he’s 45. There was never any doubt that he’d be back on a one-year contract somewhere. It always seemed unlikely to continue in Houston. Verlander had an illustrious run with the Astros around his first half stay with the Mets in 2023. He’s coming off a challenging season, though, leading Houston to let him walk.
Verlander took the ball 17 times and turned in a 5.48 earned run average through 90 1/3 innings. He had a pair of injured list stints — first in April for shoulder inflammation, then a two-month stretch between June and August related to a neck issue. Opponents tagged him for an ERA north of 8.00 over his seven starts after he returned from the latter injury. Verlander conceded after the season that he had come back too soon as he tried to contribute to Houston’s playoff push.
San Francisco believes there’s more in the tank with a healthy offseason. Verlander is only one year removed from an excellent season. He combined for a 3.22 ERA across 162 1/3 innings with New York and Houston in 2023. That came with a 21.5% strikeout rate that was well below Verlander’s prior level. That pointed to regression from his Cy Young form, but he still found plenty of success with diminished swing-and-miss stuff that year.
Verlander averaged 93.5 MPH on his four-seam fastball last season. That’s down slightly from the 94-95 MPH range in which he sat between 2022-23 but hasn’t completely fallen off the table. Pitching at less than full strength could account for that dip. If Verlander is fully healthy in 2025, it’s not outlandish to expect his velocity to rebound.
Health is an obvious caveat for a 42-year-old pitcher. Verlander has already defied expectations once, coming back from Tommy John surgery to win his third Cy Young at age 39 in 2022. Even if he’s not likely to repeat that kind of performance, he could be an asset as a mid-rotation arm and veteran presence in a staff that lost Blake Snell.
Logan Webb will be back to take the mantle as the team’s #1 starter. Verlander and Robbie Ray slot in the middle of the rotation as high-upside veterans who are trying to rebound from injuries. Former top prospect Kyle Harrison should be the fourth starter. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said last month that the Giants intend to give hard-throwing sinkerballer Jordan Hicks another chance at a rotation spot. Younger arms Landen Roupp, Mason Black and Hayden Birdsong could push Hicks for the fifth starter role.
This is the second free agent move of Posey’s first winter atop baseball operations. His big splash was a seven-year deal to install Willy Adames at shortstop. Posey has publicly suggested that continuing to strengthen the offense was a bigger priority than the rotation, but they evidently liked the value of a one-year roll of the dice on Verlander.
San Francisco had roughly $208MM in luxury tax obligations coming into today, as calculated by RosterResource. This will push them to around $223MM, a little less than $20MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. Verlander’s deal matches the $15MM salaries which veteran starters Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton also landed earlier this winter.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the Giants and Verlander had agreed to a one-year deal. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported the $15MM salary. Image courtesy of Imagn.
Giants Designate Blake Sabol For Assignment
The Giants announced this evening that they’ve designated catcher/outfielder Blake Sabol for assignment. The move clears a roster spot for the signing of Justin Verlander, which has now been made official.
Sabol, who just celebrated his 27th birthday earlier this week, was a seventh-round pick by the Pirates back in 2019 who was plucked from the organization by San Francisco during the 2022 Rule 5 Draft. That locked Sabol into an Opening Day roster spot with the Giants for 2023, and he performed admirably for a player with just 25 games of Triple-A experience under his belt. While splitting time between catcher and left field in 2023, Sabol hit a respectable .235/.301/.394 (91 wRC+) in 344 trips to the plate.
Once the Giants were able to option him to the minors in 2024, however, Sabol was quickly shuttled back to Triple-A and only made a brief cameo in the majors last year. He hit well in those 11 games, however, with a .313/.421/.375 slash line in 38 trips to the plate while helping cover for a Patrick Bailey during a trip to the concussion-related injured list. When in the minors, Sabol struggled offensively with just a .246/.340/.388 slash line at Triple-A that was good for a wRC+ of just 85.
That lackluster performance at Triple-A seemingly made Sabol expendable as a catching depth option in the eyes of president of baseball operations Buster Posey and the Giants’ front office. The club recently claimed catcher Sam Huff off waivers from the Rangers, which may have made Sabol’s presence on the 40-man roster even less necessary. Huff is out of minor league options and can’t be sent to the minors without clearing waivers but can still provide the club with depth behind Bailey and Tom Murphy throughout Spring Training or even be carried on the roster as a third catcher.
Going forward, the Giants will have one week to either work out a trade involving Sabol or expose him to waivers. As an optionable catching depth option, it would hardly be a surprise to see a catching-needy club take the opportunity to pluck Sabol off waivers in hopes of helping him rediscover something closer to the offensive form he showed in 2023, which would make him a roughly average offensive catcher in the majors. If Sabol were to pass through waivers unclaimed, the Giants would have the option of keeping him in the fold as a non-roster depth option for the 2025 season.
Justin Verlander Drawing Interest From “Multiple Teams”
There hasn’t been much public buzz about Justin Verlander‘s market as the three-time Cy Young Award winner prepares for his 20th Major League season, yet business may be starting to pick up. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (video link) reports that “multiple teams [are] interested in” the right-hander, and that Verlander and former teammate Max Scherzer are in pretty similar situations as veteran stars looking for one-year contracts as they look to rebound from injury-shortened 2024 seasons.
Verlander tossed only 90 1/3 innings last season, and he didn’t make his 2024 debut until April 19 after a shoulder problem limited him during Spring Training. That relatively minor issue was overshadowed by a neck injury in June that ended up sidelining him for over two and a half months, and Verlander then struggled to an 8.10 ERA in 33 1/3 frames after being activated from the injured list in August. Discussing his health situation with reporters in late September, Verlander said “I think I came back from the neck injury a little fast….I want to be an asset for this team. And to do that, I needed to be able to pitch and find out where I’m at. Obviously, the results have not been good. But there’s nothing you can do besides trying to pitch.”
The good news is that Verlander is now “in great shape,” according to Morosi, as the future Hall-of-Famer heads into his age-42 season. Verlander has a well-earned reputation as a workhorse over his outstanding career, yet inevitably, more health issues have developed as he has gotten older. Verlander missed virtually all of the 2020-21 seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery, he missed a couple of weeks during the 2022 season due to a calf injury, and a teres major strain kept him on the shelf for over the first month of the 2023 season.
The latter two of those injuries, to be fair, didn’t keep Verlander from tossing 337 1/3 total innings in 2022-23, plus 38 1/3 more frames in the playoffs. His 2022 season in particular saw the righty deliver one of his best seasons, as he posted a 1.75 ERA while leading Houston to a World Series championship. Verlander took a slight step backwards in 2023 but still had a 3.22 ERA in 162 1/3 combined innings with the Mets and Astros.
Even at age 42, Verlander has plenty of upside, as he has shown that he can still be an effective arm as long as he is healthy. Obviously his health status is more of a question mark considering what happened in 2024, yet on paper, even serious neck soreness probably isn’t as big of a red flag to teams as something like an elbow or shoulder injury. It probably isn’t a surprise that Verlander’s market has started to heat up as we get later into the offseason, and teams have had more time to both evaluate his medicals and to monitor the pitching market as a whole after several other free agents and trade targets have come off the board.
Morosi didn’t cite any specific teams that were considering Verlander, though any number of clubs could be a fit due to the ever-present need for pitching. It can be assumed that Verlander is prioritizing joining contending teams, and Morosi’s suggestion that Baltimore could be a fit might no longer apply, as Morosi’s report was filed before the Orioles announced their one-year deal with Charlie Morton. The Astros are the only team known to have interest in Verlander’s services, as GM Dana Brown said in November that he’d “had conversations” with Verlander’s agent.
Astros In “Conversations” With Justin Verlander
In a recent appearance on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight podcast, Astros GM Dana Brown said the club had been in contact with free agent right-hander Justin Verlander about a possible reunion. “We’ve had conversations with his agent [ISE’s Mark Pieper] just to try to feel him out. I don’t know if there’s been a lot of progress, but we’re having conversations,” Brown said.
Unsurprisingly, it doesn’t sound like either side is quite ready to make a move this relatively early in the offseason. As Brown noted earlier in the podcast, the Astros’ top priority at the moment is trying to re-sign Alex Bregman. That high-profile pursuit is taking much of the team’s focus, even if Brown noted that the club is doing its due diligence on other potential moves (such as finding another third baseman) as well.
“If [Verlander] continues to work and he’s healthy, it’s going to be interesting to see where he goes and how much he gets. But I’m sure there will be a bunch of teams calling the agent,” Brown said. This is perhaps reading too much into wording, but Brown’s phrasing almost seemed to imply more of an arm’s length approach, as if the Astros were more curious spectators to Verlander’s market than active participants.
Verlander turns 42 in February, but he made it clear following the season that he wanted to return in 2025, and rebound from an injury-marred 2024 campaign. The right-hander was limited to 90 1/3 innings due to a pair of injured-list stints prompted by shoulder injury and then neck discomfort. The latter injury was particularly troublesome, as Verlander missed about 2.5 months due his neck issue and didn’t pitch well after he returned, leaving him feeling like he probably tried to come back too quickly. The end result was a 5.48 ERA, the highest of Verlander’s career apart from the 7.11 ERA he posted over an 11 1/3-inning sample size in his very first Major League season in 2005.
It was just two seasons ago that Verlander won his third AL Cy Young Award, and in 2023, Verlander was still solid with a 3.22 ERA over 162 1/3 innings with the Mets and Astros. A case can certainly be made that Verlander has more to contribute if healthy, and the righty has already defied Father Time once by delivering that last Cy Young campaigns after a Tommy John surgery cost him virtually all of the 2020-21 seasons.
That said, nobody would be surprised if age and injuries simply caught up to Verlander, and 2023 was really his last hurrah as a productive starting pitcher. As Brown noted, Verlander’s track record alone will lead to interest from multiple teams, but is understandable if the Astros were ready to move on rather than risk being left holding the bag if Verlander declined further.
Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and Spencer Arrighetti are lined up as the top four of Houston’s rotation, and the in-house candidates for the fifth starter’s role all come with big health-related question marks. Lance McCullers Jr. has missed the last two seasons due to injuries, Luis Garcia hasn’t pitched since May 2023 due to a Tommy John surgery and a couple of setbacks, J.P. France missed most of 2024 due to shoulder surgery, and Cristian Javier had a TJ surgery last June and isn’t guaranteed to pitch at all in 2025. Adding a reliable veteran arm to the mix certainly makes sense for Houston, though Verlander might not fit the bill given his own health status.
Brown: Astros May Have To Get “Creative” With Payroll
The Astros’ incredible run of seven consecutive runs to the American League Championship Series ended yesterday when they ran into a scorching-hot Tigers club helmed by former Houston skipper A.J. Hinch. Although the ‘Stros had their shortest season since 2016 and have a number of high-profile free agents coming off the books, general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada both made clear in addressing the team’s beat that there’s no plan to step back. Houston will unsurprisingly take aim at another deep postseason run next year, although the looming offseason could be one punctuated by some tighter-than-usual financial parameters.
“I think we’re going to have to make some wise decisions as to – are there younger players that we can call up and put in certain roles to maybe save some money here and … allocate that money to other places,” Brown said Thursday (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. “…We may have to get a little bit creative.”
That’s an ominous sentiment for any fan to hear from a team’s GM at the onset of the offseason. A look at Houston’s payroll, however, reveals a similarly ominous setup. The Astros opened the 2024 season with a payroll around $235MM and finished out the year north of $244MM, per RosterResource. They already have $147MM in guaranteed contracts on next year’s books (including dead-money commitments to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero). That doesn’t include a 10-player arbitration class — headlined by Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker — projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to cost more than $57MM. Add in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and the Astros are sitting around the $212MM mark next year before making a single addition.
In the absence of any notable free agent departures, perhaps that’d be workable, but the Astros will see franchise cornerstone Alex Bregman reach the open market for the first time in his career next month. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander is also a free agent, as is deadline pickup Yusei Kikuchi, who thrived in the Houston rotation down the stretch. Relievers Caleb Ferguson, Hector Neris and Kendall Graveman are free agents as well, as are role players Jason Heyward and Ben Gamel.
Bregman, of course, is the most notable name of the bunch. Espada plainly stated that he hopes Bregman will return and heaped praise onto the former No. 2 overall pick for not only his on-field contributions but the manner in which he’s been the heart and soul of the team’s clubhouse.
“I’ve talked a lot about how much I love the individual, the human,” Espada said of Bregman (X link via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). “I think what makes this team really good is the character of the people in clubhouse. He’s one of the best I’ve ever been around. I would love to have Bregman playing third base for us next year.”
Whether that’s feasible remains an open question. Teammate Jose Altuve has stumped for Bregman’s return in recent days — even before the team’s elimination — and Brown has said since being hired in the 2022-23 offseason that he hopes to keep Bregman in Houston for the entirety of his career. That talk has yet to manifest in the form of a contract, although the Astros are reportedly expected to put forth a formal offer soon. Brown doubled down on his hope of keeping Bregman and plans to talk with agent Scott Boras about a reunion (X link via McTaggart), but there are reasons to be skeptical of a deal coming to fruition.
The Astros, under owner Jim Crane, have never given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez‘s six-year, $115MM deal — nor have they given out a contract worth a larger guarantee than Jose Altuve‘s most recent $151MM extension. Josh Hader‘s five-year contract is the lengthiest and largest in guaranteed money that Houston has given to a free agent under current ownership. Bregman stands as one of the top-five free agents on this season’s market, arguably the No. 2 or 3 name in this year’s class behind Juan Soto.
Hitting the market in advance of his age-31 season, Bregman will have a case for a six- or possibly seven-year deal. He’s a year younger than fellow third baseman Matt Chapman, who just inked a six-year, $151MM extension to stay in San Francisco. Seven-year guarantees for position players beginning in their age-31 season or later are rare, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, though Marcus Semien (seven years, $175MM with the Rangers) stands as a recent prominent example.
Even if Bregman is limited to “only” six years, he’ll surely seek a larger guarantee than Chapman just received last month. Chapman didn’t have the benefit of open-market bidding, and Bregman, even if he can’t match Chapman’s wizardry with the glove, is a quality defender who has been the more consistent offensive player of the pair. In addition to the Astros, clubs like the Yankees, Tigers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Royals and Nationals could be in the market for third base help. Unexpected suitors frequently emerge in pursuit of top-tier free agents, too.
Given Bregman’s tenure with the team and value on and off the field, it’s certainly feasible that Crane could push beyond his previous comfort levels to keep him in the fold. In that case, Bregman would likely push Houston close to $240MM of payroll obligations — or at least north of $230MM on a backloaded deal. Creatively structuring the contract, however, wouldn’t impact the luxury tax in the same way it does bottom-line payroll. Luxury tax is calculated based on contracts’ average annual value; re-signing Bregman would push the Astros into tax territory for a second straight season and only the third time under Crane’s ownership.
Brown left open the door for virtually any possibility, telling reporters the Astros “are not taking anything off the table in terms of what we’ll do” (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Still, it’s hard to envision a scenario where they both re-sign Bregman and add the bullpen pieces he also said will be a focus this winter (X link via McTaggart). Houston could always turn to the trade market to drop some payroll from other areas of the roster, but they surely won’t consider moving Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker or Valdez, and the contracts of Josh Hader and Lance McCullers Jr. aren’t going to draw interest from other clubs. Ryan Pressly‘s remaining one year and $14MM could be movable, but flipping him would only further the need to add bullpen arms.
One area the Astros don’t seem likely to spend heavily is in the rotation. Brown called next year’s staff “stacked.” The Astros will bring back Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. Injured righties McCullers and Luis Garcia will hopefully be ready for the start of the season after missing all of 2024. Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy (if he’s tendered a contract) and J.P. France could all be midseason reinforcements. Prospect Ryan Gusto, 25, had a nice season in Triple-A (3.70 ERA, 22.6 K%, 8.5 BB%, 148 1/3 innings).
It’s a group that, as of right now, doesn’t include Verlander. Brown touched on the subject of the three-time Cy Young winner (X link via McTaggart), noting that it “sounds like he wants to come back” but that he’ll “have some discussions with our front office … as to what’s best for the team.” Verlander spent much of the 2024 season on the injured list due to shoulder and neck injuries. He struggled badly enough down the stretch in his final six starts (8.89 ERA) that he wasn’t included on the team’s roster for the Wild Card Series against Detroit. With the Astros facing mounting payroll issues and already possessing a fairly deep stock of arms, a reunion may not be in the cards.