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Kutter Crawford

Red Sox Notes: Crawford, Mata, Yoshida

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While the Red Sox indicated early in the offseason that addressing the starting rotation would be a priority for the club this winter, it seems they’ll go into the 2024 season having only swapped out Chris Sale for Lucas Giolito, at least barring a late bid for Jordan Montgomery. Should the club stick with its internal options for the rotation mix, Sean McAdam of MassLive relayed comments from manager Alex Cora regarding the state of the rotation yesterday. Per McAdam, Cora suggested that right-handers Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, and Nick Pivetta are all locked into the rotation to open the season. Meanwhile, McAdam adds that Cora indicated Kutter Crawford would have a “leg up” over each of Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, and Josh Winckowski in the battle for the final two rotation spots.

That Giolito and Bello are locked into rotation spots entering the season is hardly a surprise, given the pair are the only two hurlers on the club’s staff to make at least 25 starts last year. Likewise, it’s hardly a surprise to hear that Whitlock, Houck, and Winckowski are under consideration for a role at the back of the club’s rotation. Each righty made at least one start for the club last year and the trio of young hurlers all figure to be key pieces of the club’s pitching plans this season, whether in starting roles or in relief.

That being said, it’s something of a surprise that Cora indicated Pivetta has a more firm grasp on a rotation spot than Crawford. The 31-year-old Pivetta was dominant for the Red Sox in a multi-inning relief last year with a 3.05 ERA in 55 2/3 innings of work, while he pitched to a far more pedestrian 4.66 ERA in sixteen starts in 2023. Crawford, by contrast, Made 23 starts for the Red Sox last year and pitched to a 4.20 ERA with an excellent 3.64 FIP after joining the rotation full time in early June. Cora’s characterization of Crawford’s position in the rotation mix also represent a slight departure from comments chief baseball officer Craig Breslow made last month, where he suggested that Giolito, Bello, Pivetta, and Crawford all were set to enter camp as members of the rotation.

More from around Red Sox camp…

  • Right-hander Bryan Mata has been shut down due to a pulled hamstring, Alex Cora told reporters (including MassLive’s Chris Cotillo) this morning. A timetable for Mata’s return is not yet clear. The 24-year-old right-hander has not yet made his big league debut but figured to enter Spring Training with a strong chance to earn a job in the club’s bullpen this spring. Mata does not have options remaining, meaning that he must be carried on the club’s active roster or else designated for assignment and exposed to waivers, running the risk that a rival club would claim him. If Mata’s absence proves to be a lengthy one, of course, he could open the season on the 15- or 60-day injured list, thereby delaying the need for Boston to make a decision regarding his future.
  • WEEI’s Rob Bradford spoke to outfielder Masataka Yoshida today, and Yoshida revealed that he underwent surgery on his jaw shortly after the 2023 season. According to Yoshida, the issue didn’t “necessarily” impact him from a baseball perspective during the 2023 season, though he noted that the surgery alleviated discomfort that nagged him during everyday use of his jaw. Yoshida appeared in 140 games for Boston during his first MLB season last year, slashing a respectable .289/.338/.445 in the first year of his five-year, $90MM pact with the Red Sox. Yoshida figures to look to improve on his 2023 campaign this season after he slowed down a bit in the second half last year, slashing just .254/.278/.386 over his final 62 games after entering the All Star break with an excellent .316/.382/.492 slash line.

Craig Breslow Discusses Red Sox’s Outfield, Rotation

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The Red Sox are open to adding another right-handed hitter to their outfield mix, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow tells Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. To that end, Abraham reports that Boston remains in contact with free agent outfielder Adam Duvall’s camp.

Duvall had a solid, if volatile, 2023 season. Signed to a one-year, $7MM contract over the offseason, he was arguably the best hitter in MLB for the first couple weeks. Duvall ran a .455/.514/1.030 line over his first 37 plate appearances before fracturing a bone in his left wrist while diving for a fly ball. The injury cost him two months.

He was mired in an extended slump upon coming off the injured list, limping to a .175/.253/.313 showing through the All-Star Break. Duvall found his stride again coming out of the Break, raking at a .293/.349/.654 clip through the end of August. The year ended on a dismal note, as he struck out in over 40% of his plate appearances while hitting .149/.177/.324 from September 1 on.

Despite the extreme peaks and valleys, Duvall’s overall offensive production was well better than average. He hit 21 homers with a .247/.303/.531 slash in 353 plate appearances. Boston’s decision to give him nearly 500 innings in center field predictably didn’t work out well, as he rated between three and five runs below average by Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved. Duvall has been a plus defender in left field throughout the course of his career though. Between the strong corner outfield defense and 30-homer upside, he’s a valuable player despite high strikeout totals and subpar on-base marks.

The Angels are the only other team that has been publicly linked to Duvall this offseason. At age 35, it seems likely he’ll sign another one-year pact, although there’s an outside chance he lands a second guaranteed season.

Breslow wasn’t with the Sox when they signed Duvall last January. Yet the front office has sought right-handed power in the outfield throughout his first offseason at the helm. Boston already swung a trade for Tyler O’Neill. They were linked to Teoscar Hernández before he signed a one-year, $23.5MM pillow contract with the Dodgers. Duvall would be significantly cheaper.

Even as the Sox pursued Hernández, they’d pointed to the rotation as their biggest priority. Boston took a rebound flier on Lucas Giolito. Not long thereafter, they subtracted Chris Sale in the trade to add Vaughn Grissom from the Braves. While Giolito seems a safer bet than Sale to log a full workload, the pair of moves leaves the Sox with the same number of starters they had at the beginning of the winter.

Breslow told Abraham the current rotation consists of four pitchers: Giolito, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta. That’d leave Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Josh Winckowski competing for the final spot. Offseason acquisitions Cooper Criswell and Max Castillo are among the depth options on the 40-man roster.

Of course, that’s not necessarily the mix they’ll take to Spring Training. Breslow conceded their efforts to add rotation help have thus far “been a challenge” but said they’re “still engaged in conversations with free agents and teams via trade.” The Sox have been loosely tied to top arms Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery (more so the latter) during the offseason, but more recent reports indicated they were looking at the next tiers down. With mid-level arms like Shota Imanaga and Marcus Stroman recently coming off the board, the free agent supply is dwindling beyond Snell and Montgomery.

That hints at payroll questions that have hung over the offseason. The Sox opened the 2023 season with a player payroll in the $181MM range, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That ranked 12th in the majors, their first time outside the top 10 this century. Roster Resource projects their 2024 payroll in a similar range, a little under $178MM. They’re almost $40MM away from next year’s base luxury tax threshold.

An offseason headlined by Giolito and trade pickups of Grissom and O’Neill presumably isn’t what many in the fanbase envisioned. That’s especially true after team chairman Tom Werner vowed in early November the organization would go “full throttle” to put their two straight last place finishes behind them.

Werner walked that phrasing back in a conversation with Sean McAdam of MassLive this afternoon. “Maybe that wasn’t the most artful way of saying what I wanted to say, which is that we’re going to be pressing all levers to improve the team,” he said. “In the end, nobody’s happy with our performance the last few years. Some years, we go after somebody who is about to be a free agent, or was a free agent, as it pertains to Trevor Story or Raffy Devers.”

After noting the organization made an unsuccessful run at Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Werner added the Sox “certainly aren’t happy with the current roster as it was at the end of last year, so if I was going to say it again, I would say that we’re going to be pressing all levers and weren’t going to be happy with just one (method) — that includes free agency, trades or talent from Triple and Double A. … In the end, we don’t have a line in terms of our payroll that we look at as much as trusting that Craig is going to deliver on his assurance that we’re going to be competitive.“

AL East Notes: Crawford, Bleis, Blue Jays, Irvin

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The Red Sox have given right-hander Kutter Crawford a vote of confidence as a starting pitcher, as The Boston Globe’s Pete Abraham relays that the Sox are planning on keeping Crawford in the rotation going forward after a pair of short starts since joining the rotation at the beginning of June. While the starts lasted just 40 and 58 pitches, respectively, the overall numbers have been solid, as Crawford allowed three earned runs on seven hits and zero walks while striking out six.

It’s been a strong season for Crawford, who has posted a 2.20 ERA, 3.00 FIP, and 24% strikeout rate in 32 2/3 innings of work after a four inning, seven run outing to open the season against the Pirates. The success is particularly welcome after the 27-year-old struggled in a swing role for 77 1/3 innings last season, posting a 5.47 ERA and 4.34 FIP. With Crawford now in the rotation, the Red Sox still have Corey Kluber, Nick Pivetta, and Josh Winckowski in the bullpen as potential multi-inning relief options.

More from around the AL East:

  • Sticking with the Red Sox, top outfield prospect Miguel Bleis is expected to miss the rest of the 2023 season after undergoing shoulder surgery, according to Chris Henrique of Beyond The Monster. A consensus top 100 prospect who ranks as high as 39th over at Fangraphs, Bleis struggled in his first taste of full-season ball in 2023, slashing just .230/.282/.325 in 142 plate appearances at Single-A this season. Now sidelined until 2024, the 19-year-old Bleis was already expected to be several years away from the majors, though it’s possible the coming surgery slows his timeline further.
  • After 2022 AL Cy Young finalist Alek Manoah was sent to the minors earlier this week, the Blue Jays are expected to ramp up their search for external pitching options, even as the 2023 trade deadline is still several weeks away. GM Ross Atkins told reporters, including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, that the club has “intensified those discussions over the last several weeks”, referring to the front office’s exploration of external options for the pitching staff. Reinforcements could provide a huge boost to Toronto as they’re stuck at fourth place in the AL East race despite a strong 36-29 record, thanks in part to the struggles of key contributors like Manoah, Yimi Garcia, and Yusei Kikuchi.
  • The Orioles recalled left-hander Cole Irvin to start today’s game against the Royals, per a team announcement. Acquired this past offseason in a trade with the A’s, Ivin has not built on a strong 2022 campaign (3.98 ERA in 181 innings) during his first season as an Oriole, posting a 10.38 ERA in 13 innings of work in the majors. That being said, his work at Triple-A has been much better, with a 3.21 ERA in seven starts (42 innings). With youngster Grayson Rodriguez relegated to Triple-A for the foreseeable future, it’s possible Irvin could earn himself a more permanent spot in the rotation with a quality performance this afternoon.

Red Sox Acquire Zack Littell, Select Him Onto MLB Roster

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TODAY: As expected, the Red Sox selected Littell’s contract and he is now part of their active roster. In corresponding moves, Ort was optioned to Triple-A and Adam Duvall was shifted to the 60-day injured list. Duvall was placed on the 10-day IL just under four weeks ago due to a fractured wrist, and since it will still be a couple of weeks before Duvall is even able to start swinging, his move to the 60-day IL opens up a 40-man roster spot for Boston.

MAY 5, 11:38pm: Littell’s contract with the Rangers contained an upward mobility clause requiring the Rangers to trade him or promote him to the majors if another club was willing to add him to the MLB roster, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). The Red Sox expressed a willingness to do so, leading to the trade. While Littell was initially assigned to Triple-A Worcester, he’s expected to be formally promoted to the major league roster shortly.

5:30pm: The Red Sox have acquired right-hander Zack Littell from the Rangers, reports Kennedi Landry of MLB.com, with cash considerations going the other way. Littell wasn’t on the club’s 40-man roster, so no corresponding moves will be necessary.

Littell, 27, was with the Giants the past two years but was outrighted off their roster at the end of last season and elected free agency. He signed a minor league deal with the Rangers in the winter and had been pitching well in Triple-A. Through 12 innings for the Round Rock Express, he had a 2.25 ERA, striking out 33.3% of opponents against a tiny walk rate of 4.2%.

That’s a stronger performance than he’s managed in the big leagues recently. With San Francisco in 2021 and 2022, he tossed 106 innings with a 3.82 ERA, 23.1% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. It seems the Red Sox were encouraged enough by the small sample improvements to take a shot on him, while the Rangers were seemingly content to let him go and pocket some cash.

Littell is out of options, meaning that he’d have to stick in the big leagues if he gets back there, or else be designated for assignment. But in the event he does back to the bigs and sticks, he could be retained for future seasons. He came into this season with three years and 67 days of service time, meaning he could get to the four-year mark in 2023 if called up soon. Even in that case, he’d have a couple more arb years before getting to the six-year mark and automatic free agency, though a delayed call-up could push that back.

The Sox have dealt with a handful of injuries to their relief corps this year, as Zack Kelly, Joely Rodríguez and Wyatt Mills are all on the injured list. Right-hander Kutter Crawford joined them today when the Sox put him on the IL with a left hamstring strain, recalling righty Kaleb Ort to take his place. Littell will give the club a bit of extra non-roster depth and try to work his way back to the majors.

Red Sox Notes: Crawford, Mills, Wong, Tapia

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Right-hander Kutter Crawford will begin the season in the Red Sox’s rotation, manager Alex Cora confirmed (link via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). He’s expected to take the ball for the fourth game of the season, the opener of a series against the Pirates.

It’s not likely to be a long-term stint. Crawford steps in with Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello both opening the year on the 15-day injured list. Whitlock, in particular, is expected back midway through the season’s first month. Assuming each of Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Tanner Houck and Nick Pivetta remain healthy by that point, Crawford could find himself in long relief or optioned back to Triple-A Worcester. Potential returns from Bello and James Paxton later on would push him further down the depth chart.

Crawford, 27 next month, started 12 of 21 outings for the Sox last season. He pitched to a 5.47 ERA in 77 1/3 innings overall, though his 23.1% strikeout percentage and 8.7% walk rate were both solid. He predictably missed more bats in relief than he did as a starter but threw more strikes when working from the rotation.

In other news out of Boston:

  • Reliever Wyatt Mills has been shut down from throwing after experiencing elbow inflammation, Speier writes. Fortunately, the issue is believed to be muscular rather than structural. Mills still seems likely to open the season on the 15-day IL but there doesn’t appear to be concern about a long-term absence in spite of the ominous-sounding diagnosis. Boston acquired the righty from the Royals over the winter, sending minor league reliever Jacob Wallace back to Kansas City. Mills split the 2022 campaign between Seattle and K.C., throwing 29 1/3 frames of 4.60 ERA ball. He still has a minor league option year remaining and wasn’t a lock to crack the season-opening bullpen.
  • Catcher Connor Wong was hampered by a left hamstring strain early in camp. While the issue initially seemed as if it could lead to a season-opening IL stint, Wong now looks on track to be ready for Opening Day. Cora told reporters yesterday the 26-year-old backstop was a “full go” at this point (relayed by Ian Browne of MLB.com). With a week left until the start of the regular season, he should be in position to open the year on the roster. Wong and Reese McGuire are the two backstops on the 40-man. The catching outlook is one area the Sox will have to sort out in the coming days, as Boston could lose minor league signee Jorge Alfaro to an upward mobility clause in his contract if they’re not willing to put him on the MLB club. Alfaro has been on a tear in Spring Training, collecting 11 hits (including two homers) in 21 at-bats.
  • Like Alfaro, Raimel Tapia is a veteran in camp on a minor league deal. The lefty-hitting outfielder is battling for a depth role behind the presumptive starting outfield of Masataka Yoshida, Adam Duvall and Alex Verdugo. Righty-swinging Rob Refsnyder is a virtual lock to secure a bench role, as is a backup catcher. That’d leave two spots, one of which seems likely to go to an infielder. Tapia brings plus contact skills and speed, though he’s not a prototypical fourth outfielder considering he’s spent the bulk of his career in left field. Chad Jennings of the Athletic writes that Boston is increasingly open to using Tapia in center field, where he played a career-high 249 2/3 innings for Toronto last season. That would increase his chances of making the roster, particularly since his skillset would be complementary to that of Duvall. Tapia is 13-40 with two walks, six strikeouts and a pair of homers this spring.

Latest On The Red Sox’ Rotation

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The Red Sox’ rotation will likely be down several starters to begin the season, as MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo writes that each of Garrett Whitlock, Brayan Bello and James Paxton are expected to begin the season on the injured list. Paxton had already been trending in this direction, but Whitlock and Bello now join him in missing at least the beginning of the 2023 season. Cotillo notes that Whitlock, who got a late start while recovering from hip surgery is expected to be ready sometime in mid-April. Bello, who battled forearm tightness early in camp, should follow shortly thereafter. Paxton isn’t expected to return until May at the earliest.

The Red Sox announced this week that offseason signee Corey Kluber would get the nod on Opening Day. Left-hander Chris Sale, eyeing for a rebound campaign after a dreadful run of injuries in recent seasons, is slated to start the second game of the season. Righties Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and likely Kutter Crawford should round out the quintet to begin the year.

With Whitlock and Bello both expected to return by the end of the season’s first month, though, the rotation will likely be reconfigured early in the regular season. Crawford, who struggled to a 5.47 ERA in 77 2/3 frames last season, figures to be the odd man out once either Whitlock or Bello is able to reclaim a  spot in the starting staff. In that case, Crawford would figure to serve as optionable rotation depth alongside Josh Winckowski.

Assuming everyone remains healthy by the time both Whitlock and Bello are ready to return, the Sox will be faced with a decision between Houck and Pivetta for the final rotation spot. Pivetta made a league-leading 33 starts last season and paced the team with 179 2/3 innings pitched. That impressive volume came with mediocre results, however, as the right-hander posted a slightly below-average 4.56 ERA during the 2022 campaign.

Houck, meanwhile, has been a successful pitcher both as a starter (3.22 ERA in 92 1/3 innings) and a reliever (2.68 ERA in 53 2/3 innings) to this point in his career. The former first-rounder has long been seen as a potential rotation piece at Fenway, but the Red Sox were noncommittal early in the offseason when asked about his role. Houck also had back surgery late last season and ended the year on the injured list after making 28 of his 32 appearances as a reliever. It’s easy to see why the Sox would be intrigued by the idea of Houck upping his workload this year and even getting some more run in the starting staff, but he’s coming off a 60-inning season that ended in back surgery; a jump to a full starter’s workload would be something of a surprise.

Of course, this needn’t be a strict either-or proposition. Situations like this tend to work themselves out, often as injuries pop up elsewhere on a pitching staff. Getting Houck some early rotation work and perhaps moving him to a multi-inning relief/sixth starter role once everyone is healthy would be a good means of managing his workload as he ramps up from last year’s 60 innings.

Even if the plan is to ride Houck as a starter as long as possible, that doesn’t mean Pivetta will be decidedly forced out of the rotation. Given that each of Sale, Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Kluber and especially Paxton have some notable injuries within the past few seasons, it’s likely the Sox will need to shuffle through quite a few starters. All six of their top options figure to spend ample time in the rotation this summer, and they’ll also have depth options like Crawford, Winckowski, Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy and Bryan Mata as candidates for rotation work down in the minors.

The Volatile Red Sox Rotation

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The Red Sox have been one of the more capricious teams in recent history. This millenium has seen them win the World Series four times but also finish fifth in the American League East five times. The past five seasons have seen them go from winning it all in 2018 to missing the playoffs in 2019, falling to last in 2020, back to the playoffs in 2021 but then back to the basement last year.

That mercurial nature seems to be embodied in this year’s rotation. There’s plenty of talent but also plenty of risk. It wouldn’t be a total shock to see this group be completely dominant or an utter disaster. Let’s take a look at the candidates and their respective error bars.

Chris Sale

From 2012 to 2018, Sale was one of the best pitchers in the league. He tossed 1,388 innings over that stretch with a 2.91 ERA, 30.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 42.7% ground ball rate. His 39.2 fWAR in that period was bested only by Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer.

Unfortunately, that’s starting to feel like ancient history now. Sale struggled in 2019 with a 4.40 ERA over 25 starts. That was the “juiced ball” season and his 19.5% HR/FB rate was a career high, so perhaps it wasn’t as bad as it seemed, but ERA estimators still pointed to him taking a step back from his previous work. The three subsequent seasons have been mostly lost to injuries, with Sale undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. He returned in 2021 and made nine starts that year, but then the injury bug came back the next season. A right rib stress fracture put him on the injured list to start the year, and then he was hit by a comebacker when he returned and suffered a left fifth finger fracture. While on the IL with that finger injury, he fractured his right wrist in a bicycle accident.

Some of those injuries are of the fluky variety and don’t necessarily point to any irreversible core issue. However, Sale will turn 34 years old in March and has pitched less than 50 major league innings in the past three years, including just 5 2/3 last year. It’s difficult to know what to expect from him after so little recent work, and even if he’s in good form, will he eventually hit some kind of wall? Either mandated by the club or just a physical limit?

James Paxton

Paxton is in a fairly similar situation to Sale, though his previous highs aren’t quite as high. From 2016 to 2019, he posted a 3.60 ERA over 568 innings. He struck out 28.5% of batters he faced while walking just 6.7% and got grounders at a 42.6% clip. His 15.1 fWAR in that period was 12th among all pitchers in the league. But various arm injuries have limited him to just six starts since then, with his last in April of 2021. He required Tommy John at that time and was on his way back last year but suffered a lat tear during his rehab.

The Sox could have locked him in for another two seasons by triggering a $26MM option but made the obvious choice to turn that down. Paxton then turned down a chance to return to free agency by triggering his $4MM player option for this year. Like Sale, he’s coming off three mostly lost seasons and will be 34 this year, but he’ll be almost two years removed from his last major league appearance once the season begins. Will he be able to get things back on track and, if so, for how long?

Corey Kluber

Kluber’s arc has some echoes of the two guys already mentioned in this piece, though with more optimistic developments recently. From 2014 to 2018, he made 160 starts with a 2.85 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 44.8% ground ball rate. His 30.3 fWAR just nudged out Sale and trailed only Scherzer and Kershaw.

But after that, a forearm fracture and teres major muscle tear limited him to just eight starts over 2019 and 2020. He got back on track somewhat in 2021, as a shoulder strain sent him to the IL for about three months, but he still made 16 starts with a 3.83 ERA. He stayed healthy enough to take the ball 31 times last year, posting a 4.34 ERA. That came with excellent control as he walked just 3% of batters, but his strikeouts were down to a 20.2% clip.

Those past couple of seasons are encouraging but Kluber turns 37 in April. His fastball averaged 88.9 mph last year, well down from his 94-95 mph peak form. He seems like he has the ability to succeed despite that diminished stuff, but that will likely become more challenging over time, even if he does stay healthy.

Nick Pivetta

Compared to the three previous pitchers on this list, Pivetta is the picture of reliability. He hasn’t been to the injured list for a non-COVID reason during his time in the majors, which began in 2017.

However, that might be his best asset, as he hasn’t exactly wowed with the results. He has a 5.02 ERA for his career and registered a 4.56 mark last year. His 22.6% strikeout rate was slightly better than that of the average starter last year, but his 9.4% walk rate and 38.5% ground ball rate were both a few points worse. He’s not terribly exciting but there’s certainly value to that kind of steadiness, especially amid this erratic group.

Garrett Whitlock

Whitlock had a great season in 2021 after being plucked from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft. He tossed 73 1/3 innings over 46 relief appearances with a 1.96 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 49.7% ground ball rate. He began 2022 back in the bullpen but the Sox tried stretching him out midseason. He made nine starts before a hip issue sent him to the injured list in June. He returned in July but was kept in a relief role until the hip issue put him on the IL again in September. He underwent surgery for that hip at that time but is expected to be ready for spring.

The club plans on implementing him as a starter here in 2023, which will be an interesting experiment. The 120 2/3 innings he threw in the minors in 2018 are the most in a single season on his résumé, as he’s been in the 70-80 range since then. With just those nine big league starts to his name, can he suddenly jump to a full starter’s workload? And even if he can, will he be able to maintain the same quality of of work that he did in relief in 2021-22?

Tanner Houck

Houck is in a fairly similar boat to Whitlock, as there are intriguing results there but it’s tough to map out the best path forward. He has a 3.02 ERA in 146 innings for his career thus far, striking out 27.6% of batters faced, walking 8.7% and getting grounders at a 49.3% rate. That work has involved 20 starts and 33 relief appearances. The splits aren’t huge, as he has a 3.22 ERA as a starter and a 2.68 out of the ’pen. He dealt with lingering back issues last year that sent him to the injured list in August and he ultimately underwent surgery in September.

The club has indicated they may stretch Houck out as a starter in camp but move him to the bullpen if the five guys ahead of him are all healthy. That still leaves a decent chance of him spending some time in the rotation this year. He made just four starts last year and hasn’t reached 120 innings in any of his professional seasons.

Brayan Bello/Kutter Crawford/Josh Winckowski

These three all have made their major league debuts but likely need more time to develop. Bello registered a 4.71 ERA last year, with Crawford at 5.47 and Winckowski at 5.89. They all have options and might be in the minors to start the year. But given the unstable nature of the arms ahead of them on the depth chart, there’s a chance they will be needed at some point.

Brandon Walter/Bryan Mata/Chris Murphy

These three are all on the 40-man but have yet to reach the majors. Walter and Murphy just got added in November to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Walter has just nine Double-A starts and two at Triple-A, meaning he likely won’t be lined up for his debut in the immediate future. Murphy made 15 Triple-A starts last year but put up a 5.50 ERA in that time. Mata underwent Tommy John in April of 2021 and was able to return last year and toss 83 innings in the minors, but he has just five Triple-A starts to his name thus far. This group could be called upon if things really go south, but they will likely be behind the Bello/Crawford/Winckowski trio unless things shift as the season progresses.

_____

As mentioned off the top, there’s plenty of talent here but there are so many ways this could play out. Five years ago, Sale, Paxton and Kluber would have been a dominant front three but the odds of them all suddenly clicking into their previous ace levels are low. Whitlock and Houck have had tantalizing results but each is coming off a season ended by surgery and both are generally unproven as starters over any kind of meaningful stretch. The younger depth options could always take a step forward and seize a job but they probably can’t be counted on yet.

It seems the error bars are quite wide for the Sox going into 2023. Center field and shortstop will be manned by players with minimal experience at those positions in Adam Duvall and Enrique Hernández, respectively. Their first baseman will be Triston Casas, who has 27 MLB games to his name. Their left fielder will be Masataka Yoshida, attempting to make the transition from NPB to MLB. They’re hoping to get some kind of contribution from Adalberto Mondesi, who’s been limited to just 50 games over the past two years combined. There’s uncertainty all over the place, including the rotation. In a style that fits the organization, they could have a miracle season or it could all go horribly wrong.

Red Sox Promote Triston Casas

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TODAY: Casas’ promotion was officially announced, with the Red Sox also calling up Josh Winckowski from Triple-A.  Houck was indeed moved to the 60-day IL, Dalbec was optioned to Triple-A, and right-hander Kutter Crawford was placed on the 15-day injured list with a right shoulder impingement.  Crawford was supposed to start today’s game against the Rangers but Sox manager Alex Cora said yesterday that the righty would be scratched.  Winckowski will instead make today’s start.

SEPTEMBER 3: The Red Sox are going to add first base prospect Triston Casas to the team tomorrow, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive. That report has been confirmed by Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe, who adds that Bobby Dalbec will be optioned to Triple-A Worcester. Casas is not currently on the club’s 40-man roster, meaning they will have to open a spot for him. However, it would likely come down to transferring someone to the 60-day IL, such as Tanner Houck, who was previously reported to be done for the season.

Casas, 22, was selected by Boston in the first round of the 208 draft, 26th overall. He got a brief showing in rookie ball that year and jumped to A-ball to start 2019. He hit 19 home runs for the Greenville Drive while slashing .254/.349/.472, producing a wRC+ of 136 and earning a brief promotion to High-A to finish the year.

After that strong showing in his first full season as a professional, he was ranked the #70 prospect in the sport by Baseball America. Of course, the minor league seasons were canceled that year by the pandemic, preventing Casas from playing organized ball that season. In 2021, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting 14 homers and slashing .279/.394/.484. He walked in 15.4% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 19.1% of them, producing a wRC+ of 141.

After that excellent season, he jumped up to #19 on BA’s 2022 top prospects list and seemed a candidate to make his major league debut this season. The Red Sox stuck with Dalbec as their first baseman to start the year and Casas was taken off the table when he suffered an ankle injury in May, returning to Worcester at the end of July. In Triple-A this year, he’s hit .273/.382/.481 for a wRC+ of 127, walking in 14.5% of his trips to the plate while going down on strikes just 21.5% of the time. He’s currently ranked as the #28 prospect in the league by Baseball America, #14 by FanGraphs and #31 by Keith Law of The Athletic.

Fans of the Red Sox have been calling for this move for some time, not just because of the strong showing of Casas, but also the struggles of Dalbec. After hitting 25 home runs last year and slashing .240/.298/.494 for a wRC+ of 107, he’s slumped this year to a showing of .211/.282/.363. That production is 22% below league average, as evidenced by his 78 wRC+. Based on those disappointing results, he and Casas will switch places, with Dalbec going down to the minors to try to get back on track.

The Red Sox are seven games behind the Blue Jays for the final Wild Card spot in the American League with three teams in between, making it very difficult for them to make a serious playoff run over the final month of the season. Regardless, they will give Casas a look over the remainder of the campaign to see how he fares against big league pitching in the next few weeks and hopefully go into the winter with some momentum towards next season. Eric Hosmer was acquired from the Padres at the trade deadline but is currently on the IL. Assuming Casas shows well enough to earn himself regular playing time, the club will have to figure out how to balance having both on the team.

With only a few weeks to go until the offseason, it’s unlikely that Casas will reach 130 at-bats here in 2022, meaning he will hang onto his rookie/prospect status through the winter. That’s a potentially important note under the new collective bargaining agreement. Players with less than 60 days of service who appear among two preseason Top 100 lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline can net their team a bonus amateur draft choice based on their early-career finishes in awards voting, so long as their club carries them on the MLB roster for a full service year. If Casas cracks next year’s Opening Day roster and sticks around all season, and he wins a Rookie of the Year or places highly in MVP balloting during his first couple seasons, the club could pick up an extra draft choice down the line.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Recall Kutter Crawford, Option Connor Seabold

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The Red Sox swapped a pair of right-handers between Boston and Triple-A Worcester this morning, the team announced, optioning Connor Seabold and recalling Kutter Crawford. Seabold had made his third big-league start yesterday against the Cubs, tossing four innings of one-run ball.

The move gives manager Alex Cora an extra arm while his team deals with a spate of injuries in rotation: in addition to the long-term absences of Chris Sale and James Paxton, Rich Hill, Nathan Eovaldi, and Garrett Whitlock are all on the 15-day IL while Michael Wacha is, per Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic, dealing with a dead arm that may require an IL stint. Because optioned players are allowed to return at any time if replacing a player headed to the IL, Seabold could return to start late in the week should Wacha — who last pitched on June 28th — need more time.

While Cora might have to make some uncomfortable decisions in the short term, there could be help on the way. While neither Whitlock nor Eovaldi is yet close to returning, Sale, who’s yet to pitch this season due to a stress fracture in his ribcage (and who’s covered only 42 2/3 innings since 2019, all of them last year), has already made one rehab start and is scheduled for another on Wednesday, and consensus top 100 prospect Brayan Bello appears likely to make his big-league debut the same day after Cora told reporters (including McCaffrey) that he’s probably the best option currently pitching in Worcester.

After hitting a bit of a rough patch in his first taste of Double-A last year, the 23-year-old Bello has tossed 85 innings 2.33 ERA ball across 15 appearances (14 starts) between Double-A Portland and Triple-A Worcester. His excellent ERA is backed up by a stellar strikeout rate (33.7%), though his walk rate (9.8%) leaves a bit to be desired.

Crawford, who’s struggled while shuttling between both Boston and Worcester and bullpen and rotation this year, could also be an option to start, though he likely won’t be Cora’s first choice. In 21 2/3 career big-league innings, he’s logged an unsightly 7.89 ERA (5.66 FIP). He has consistently missed bats at every level in the minors, however, and given the tattered state of the Boston pitching staff, he may well get an extended opportunity to do so in the bigs.

Roster Moves: Reds, Red Sox

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The Reds have placed reliever Alexis Diaz on the 15-day injured list, per Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter). Diaz has arguably been the Reds most reliable reliever so far this season, logging 30 innings over 27 appearances with a 2.40 ERA/3.94 FIP. No corresponding roster move has yet been made, but the Reds did make another roster move today…

  • The Reds recalled right-hander Dauri Moreta and optioned TJ Friedl to Triple-A, per the team. Moreta, 25, made 15 appearances but was hit hard to the tune of a 9.88 ERA/9.21 FIP over 13 2/3 innings. He posted better results in Triple-A with a 4.05 ERA in 15 appearances spanning 13 1/3 innings.
  • The Red Sox have officially added James Norwood to the active roster, the team announced. They acquired the right-handed reliever yesterday from the Phillies in exchange for cash considerations. Kutter Crawford was optioned to Triple-A to create the roster spot. Crawford, 26, has started a pair of games and pitched eight times in relief with a 6.41 ERA/5.17 FIP covering 19 2/3 innings of work.

 

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