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Injury Notes: Twins, E-Rod, Dodgers, Jackson

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The Twins won their season-opener against the Royals yesterday, jumping out to a quick 1-0 lead with a first-inning homer off the bat of burgeoning star Royce Lewis. The former No. 1 overall pick singled in his next at-bat but departed shortly thereafter, coming up lame when going first-to-third on a Carlos Correa double. The Twins announced that Lewis had a quadriceps injury. He underwent an MRI last night, per Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Further updates figure to be available before tomorrow’s game, though Miller notes that Lewis was optimistic and described the feeling as cramping more than severe pain.

In many ways, it’s a three-inning microcosm of Lewis’ career. The 24-year-old is a .313/.369/.564 hitter in 284 plate appearances — not including last year’s four postseason homers in 26 plate appearances — but he’s also twice torn his ACL and had IL stints for oblique and hamstring strains. A healthy Lewis has superstar potential, but injuries have been far too frequent early in his career. If Lewis requires a trip to the injured list, top prospect Brooks Lee won’t be an option to replace him. The 2022 No. 8 overall pick is dealing with a back injury, and Triple-A skipper Toby Gardenhire tells KSTP’s Darren Wolfson that he’ll be down for about three to four weeks (X link). Minnesota also had an injury scare with right fielder Max Kepler, who exited the game after fouling a ball into his leg. X-rays came back negative, per the Star-Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale (X link).

A few more injury situations worth monitoring as they unfold…

  • The Diamondbacks lost Eduardo Rodriguez to a lat strain late in spring training — a discouraging development for the left-hander, who inked a four-year deal worth $80MM over the winter. No timetable was provided at the time of the injury, but manager Torey Lovullo told the team’s beat yesterday that Rodriguez could throw off a mound in about five days (X link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). Jon Heyman of the New York Post, meanwhile, writes that the Snakes expect Rodriguez to be down for about a month. That’d be a notable absence but far from a worst-case scenario, as lat strains for pitchers can often result in multiple months on the shelf. In 152 2/3 frames last season, E-Rod notched a 3.30 ERA, 23% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate for the Tigers.
  • Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts provided a series of updates on some injured pitchers yesterday (X thread via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times). There was good news on both Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw, each of whom Roberts described as ahead of schedule. The Dodgers have made clear they’re being cautious with Buehler’s rehab from a second career Tommy John surgery, but the right-hander’s progress so far is encouraging enough that he’ll be back “sooner than I think we anticipated,” per Roberts. Kershaw, who had shoulder surgery in early November, is long-tossing from 120 feet and ahead of initial rehab projections. Roberts’ updates on righties Brusdar Graterol and Blake Treinen were far less encouraging. Both are playing catch but are “a ways away” from activation. Graterol was slowed by hip and shoulder troubles during camp, while Treinen suffered a bruised lung when a comeback liner hit him in the chest. The Dodgers originally suggested that it wouldn’t require a lengthy absence, but Treinen has yet to even throw a bullpen session.
  • Right-hander Luke Jackson exited last night’s game with Giants trainers after suffering some degree of back injury. Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that the 32-year-old Jackson underwent an MRI and will be further evaluated today. Jackson missed just under a month with a back strain last year but said following last night’s injury that the initial pain this time around was not as severe as it was in 2023. The Giants inked Jackson to a two-year, $11.5MM contract in the 2022-23 offseason while he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He made his team debut late last May and was excellent when healthy enough to be on the roster: 33 1/3 innings, 2.97 ERA, 30.1% strikeout rate. Last night, however, Jackson’s velocity was down more than a mile per hour from his 2023 average, and he allowed all three hitters he faced to reach base. All three came around to score.

Giants Designate Mauricio Llovera For Assignment

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The Giants designated right-hander Mauricio Llovera for assignment today, according to Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. The move clears space on the active roster for right-hander Luke Jackson, who the club has activated from the 15-day IL. San Francisco’s 40-man roster now stands at 39.

Llovera, 27, began his big league career with the Phillies before signing with the Giants on a minor league deal prior to the 2022 season. He was non-tendered last November but re-signed on a fresh minor league deal shortly thereafter. Though Llovera has pitched in the majors during parts of four seasons, he’s thrown just 29 1/3 big league innings with a 6.14 ERA and 6.19 FIP in that time. That being said, Llovera does sport a solid 2.82 ERA in 92 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level throughout his career, and his most recent stint with the Giants was a solid one despite its brevity. In 5 1/3 innings of work with San Francisco this season, Llovera sports a 1.69 ERA with a 23.1% strikeout rate.

Llovera’s departure opens the door for Jackson to return to the Giants’ bullpen. Jackson, 31, spent his entire career with the Braves prior to signing in San Francisco on a two-year deal prior to the 2023 season. While Jackson posted a sensational 1.98 ERA in 63 2/3 innings of work back in 2021, he missed the entire 2022 campaign due to Tommy John surgery and returned to the mound just two months ago. He looked good in 8 1/3 innings of work for the Giants in June, but his return was cut short by a low-back strain that has kept him out for nearly a month. Now that Jackson’s healthy again, he figures to factor into the club’s late-inning mix alongside Camilo Doval, Taylor Rogers, and Tyler Rogers.

Going forward, the Giants will have one week to trade, waive, or release Llovera. Llovera’s been outrighted previously in his career, meaning if the Giants successfully pass him through waivers, Llovera will have the opportunity to reject an outright assignment and test the open market.

Giants Reinstate Ross Stripling, Place Luke Jackson On 15-Day IL

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The Giants announced that right-hander Ross Stripling has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list.  Stripling will take the roster spot left open by Luke Jackson, who is headed to the 15-day IL himself due to a lower back strain.

Stripling has missed over five weeks due to his own back strain, and the injury layoff might effectively serve as a reset to his first season with the Giants.  Over his first 32 1/3 innings of the season, Stripling posted a 7.24 ERA while allowing 10 home runs.  While naturally a small sample size, these struggles are a big step back from the impressive numbers Stripling posted with the Blue Jays in 2022, when the righty delivered a 3.01 ERA over 134 1/3 frames (and with only 12 total homers allowed).

It isn’t what San Francisco was expecting when it signed Stripling to a two-year, $25MM free agent deal in the offseason.  His early struggles led the Giants to pretty quickly move him to the bullpen, though Stripling found himself back in the rotation due to some other injuries within the starting staff.  Between Stripling’s return and Alex Cobb’s expected activation from the IL later this week, the Giants are getting closer to having their full complement of starting pitchers available.

It remains to be seen if Stripling will indeed continue to work as a starter, or if he might return to a straight relief role or a hybrid of the two in his old swingman role.  The Giants’ choice is probably between Stripling and Sean Manaea as the fifth starter, or the team could use both in a piggyback capacity, or perhaps move both pitchers in and out of the rotation as a floating sixth starter to give the other starters some extra rest when necessary.  This is the type of flexibility San Francisco was looking for in signing Stripling in the first place, though naturally the righty will have to get back on track performance-wise.

Jackson left yesterday’s game due to his back injury, and he’ll now unfortunately head back to the IL after already missing the entire 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery.  The Giants only activated him on May 30, and Jackson pitched well in his first nine appearances of 2023, posting a 2.16 ERA, 30.3% strikeout rate, and 6.1% walk rate over 8 1/3 innings.

Giants Designate Matt Beaty For Assignment

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The Giants announced they’ve designated corner bat Matt Beaty for assignment. The move opens a spot on the 40-man roster for reliever Luke Jackson, who is back from the 60-day injured list. San Francisco had already optioned infielder David Villar to create space on the active roster.

Beaty has spent the bulk of his time in the organization with Triple-A Sacramento. Acquired from the Royals on Opening Day, he has appeared with San Francisco just four times. He singled while striking out twice in five at-bats. Beaty has hit well for the River Cats, compiling a .272/.406/.447 batting line over 129 trips to the plate. He’s walking at a quality 10.9% clip and has kept his strikeouts to a lower than average 18.6% rate.

Unfortunately for Beaty, that wasn’t enough to get him a longer look at Oracle Park. He’s appeared in just 24 MLB games dating back to the start of the 2022 season. The left-handed hitter showed some upside in prior looks with the Dodgers, including a .270/.363/.402 slash over 234 plate appearances during the ’21 campaign. He’s a career .249/.319/.405 hitter at the major league level and owns a .286/.388/.415 line through parts of five Triple-A campaigns.

Beaty clearly has offensive ability, but he’s struggled to carve out a consistent defensive role. He’s played all four corner positions at the major league level, the bulk of that time coming at first base and in left field. Those are the only two positions at which he’s started a game this year in Triple-A.

The Giants will have a week to explore trades or try to run Beaty through waivers. He has between three and four years of service time and is in his final option year, which could draw some attention from other clubs. Were he to go unclaimed on waivers, he’d have the right to test minor league free agency by virtue of both his MLB service time and a previous career outright.

Giants To Reinstate Luke Jackson

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The Giants are reinstating right-hander Luke Jackson from the injured list, reports Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News. The righty will be making his first appearance since the 2021 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April of 2022. Infielder David Villar will be optioned to Triple-A Sacramento in an associated active roster move, reports Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (Twitter link). Jackson was on the 60-day injured list, so the club will still need to make a corresponding move to put him back onto the 40-man roster.

Jackson was an effective middle innings arm for the Braves before the Tommy John procedure. While he’d struggled in the abbreviated 2020 season, he posted sub-4.00 ERA seasons in the two surrounding full schedules. That included a sparkling 1.98 ERA through 63 2/3 innings in 2021. Jackson punched out a solid 26.8% of opponents while inducing grounders on well over half the batted balls he allowed.

That quality performance led the Giants to take a shot on Jackson in spite of last year’s lost season. San Francisco signed him to a somewhat surprising two-year, $11.5MM free agent guarantee over the winter. He’s making $3MM this year and will be paid a $6.5MM salary in 2024 and at least a $2MM buyout on a 2025 club option. That’s a reasonable price tag for a setup type but a roll of the dice on the 31-year-old recapturing his pre-surgery form. Jackson has made five rehab appearances with Sacramento, allowing four runs with eight strikeouts and four walks through 4 1/3 innings.

Villar entered the season as San Francisco’s expected third baseman. He’d performed well as a rookie following a late-season call in 2022. The right-handed hitter has had a rough start to his ’23 campaign, however. Over 108 plate appearances, he has hit just .135/.222/.292 with four home runs and a 32.4% strikeout rate. J.D. Davis has taken hold of the third base job and pushed Villar into a depth capacity.

Giants Select Bryce Johnson, Option Brett Wisely

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The Giants announced a series of roster moves today, selecting outfielder Bryce Johnson to the active roster and optioning Brett Wisely to Triple-A. The team transferred Luke Jackson to the 60-day IL to make room for Johnson on the 40-man roster.

Johnson, a sixth round pick back in 2017, appeared in a handful of games for the Giants last year, tallying 19 plate appearances and picking up two hits. He was outrighted off the roster but remained with the organization into 2023. At Triple-A, Johnson put together a solid .290/.369/.401 slashline across 352 plate appearances, adding in five home runs and 31 stolen bases. He’ll provide some speed off the bench for the Giants.

Wisely was acquired from the Rays in a trade this winter for Tristan Peters. A 15th round pick by the Rays in 2019, Wisely’s bounced around the diamond a fair bit, earning reps in the infield and outfield. He slashed an impressive .274/.371/.460 with 15 home runs at Double-A last year but was traded just prior to the Rule 5 draft, as the Rays would’ve needed to add him to their 40-man roster or risk losing him in the draft had they not found a trade partner. Wisely did get in to the Giants opener for his first taste of big league action, playing two innings of center field, but the Giants evidently decided to send him back to the minors to continue his development.

Jackson underwent Tommy John surgery in April last year, so is still rehabbing from that. The Giants signed him to a two-year deal knowing he’d likely miss the first few months of the season, so this decision to shift him to the 60-day IL is not overly surprising. It does mean the earliest he’ll return is May 31. Jackson had a breakout year in 2021, working to a 1.98 ERA over 63 2/3 innings of relief for Atlanta.

Giants Acquire Matt Beaty From Royals, Grant Stephen Piscotty His Release

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The Giants set their Opening Day roster, announcing that they’ve acquired first baseman/outfielder Matt Beaty from the Royals in exchange for cash and selected him directly to 40-man roster. He’ll be with the club for Opening Day. San Francisco also selected the contract of catcher Roberto Perez and granted non-roster outfielder Stephen Piscotty his release.

Additionally, the Giants optioned righty Sean Hjelle to Triple-A and placed outfielder Luis Gonzalez (back surgery) and lefty Thomas Szapucki (left arm neuropathy) on the 60-day injured list. Outfielders Mitch Haniger (oblique strain) and Austin Slater (hamstring strain) were placed on the 10-day injured list, and righty Luke Jackson (recovering from 2022 Tommy John surgery) has been placed on the 15-day injured list.

Beaty, 30 in April, was originally drafted by the Dodgers in 2015, so he and current Giants president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi — formerly the Dodgers’ GM — overlapped in Los Angeles. He hit fairly well in parts of three seasons with L.A., batting .262/.333/.425 in 556 plate appearances, but a 2022 trade to the Padres didn’t yield the results San Diego hoped. In just 47 plate appearances last year, Beaty went 4-for-43 and drew just two walks, resulting in a .093/.170/.163 batting line. He signed a minor league deal with the Royals and hit .343/.378/.629 in 37 plate appearances.

Perez will join Joey Bart and Rule 5 pick Blake Sabol as catching options for manager Gabe Kapler, and he’ll in fact get the start in Opening Day (with Sabol lining up in left field). The 34-year-old is a premium defender behind the plate but has never provided much with the bat, outside of a 24-homer showing during 2019’s juiced-ball season. That season accounted for 24 of Perez’s 55 career home runs, and he’s batted just .171/.269/.295 in 97 games since that time. He opened the 2022 season as the Pirates’ primary catcher but wound up being limited to 21 games after a torn hamstring required season-ending surgery in May.

Piscotty, 32, had a big showing this spring, hitting .320/.270/.440, albeit in a small sample of 27 plate appearances. The longtime A’s outfielder has seen his production drop off in recent seasons, with just a .214/.270/.352 slash over the past three seasons. Injuries have played a significant role in that downturn, as Piscotty has time with ankle, wrist and calf issues along the way. His peak season came in 2018, when he batted .267/.331/.491 with a career-high 27 home runs for Oakland. He’ll now be free to explore other opportunities in free agency.

Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

AL East

Hyun Jin Ryu/Chad Green

The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.

Trevor Story

The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.

John Means

The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.

Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas

Effross is a lock for the Yankees’ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.

Shane Baz/Andrew Kittredge

The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.

AL Central

Casey Mize/Tarik Skubal

Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers’ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.

Garrett Crochet/Liam Hendriks

Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Chris Paddack/Royce Lewis

Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.

AL West

Brett Martin

It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.

NL East

Bryce Harper

The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.

Huascar Ynoa/Tyler Matzek

Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.

Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez

The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.

Danny Mendick

The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.

Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”

NL Central

Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks

Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.

Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone

Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.

Max Kranick

The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

NL West

Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley

The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.

Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen

The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.

Luke Jackson

The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

Giants Notes: Correa, Wade, Belt, Jackson

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Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi met with the media yesterday and addressed a wide array of topics. In addition to downplaying the club’s need for catching help, he touched on a few of the team’s free agent decisions.

Nothing has loomed larger for the organization over the past few weeks than the deal with Carlos Correa that fell through. Correa’s camp quickly pivoted to the Mets after the Giants expressed concerns about the star shortstop’s physical and backed out of their $350MM agreement. Of course, New York’s doctors expressed similar concerns and Correa’s $315MM deal with the Mets also fell apart.

Zaidi indicated that San Francisco briefly touched base with Correa’s camp after his physical with the Mets was flagged (link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). The Giants’ baseball ops leader indicated Correa wasn’t much interested in reopening discussions with San Francisco at the time, saying that Correa’s group “had other things they were more focused on.” Zaidi had expressed something similar a couple weeks back, indicating the team was unlikely to get deeply involved again with the Boras Corporation then focused on hammering out a deal with the Mets. That never came to fruition and Correa eventually returned to the Twins on a six-year, $200MM guarantee.

While the Giants’ offseason is in large part defined by near-misses on Aaron Judge and Correa, San Francisco certainly wasn’t inactive. They came up short on the star player they’d been seeking but brought in a number of quality regulars and role players. That was especially true in the outfield, where Joc Pederson returned via the qualifying offer and Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto signed multi-year free agent deals.

That solidified the outfield, with Haniger and Conforto expected to flank Mike Yastrzemski or Austin Slater on most days. Pederson will be the primary designated hitter if everyone’s healthy. LaMonte Wade Jr. has gotten a decent amount of corner outfield run over the past couple seasons but now looks set to man first base, at least as the strong side of a platoon arrangement.

Wade, a left-handed hitter, owns a .235/.318/.434 line over 632 plate appearances since the Giants acquired him from the Twins over the 2020-21 offseason. He’s been dreadful in 75 looks against left-handed pitching (.119/.178/.149) but has a quality .251/.336/.473 line with 26 home runs and 22 doubles in 557 trips while holding the platoon advantage. That makes him a logical partner for right-handed hitters like Wilmer Flores, J.D. Davis and David Villar, each of whom could rotate through the corner infield.

A desire to lean on Wade at first base played into San Francisco’s decision to watch Brandon Belt join the Blue Jays in free agency, Zaidi indicted (Pavlovic link). Zaidi suggested the team stayed in touch with Belt but didn’t specify whether the club made an official offer. After parts of 12 seasons in San Francisco, the veteran first baseman joined the Jays on a $9.3MM deal earlier this week.

One free agent whom San Francisco did sign is reliever Luke Jackson. The longtime Braves righty didn’t pitch in 2022 thanks to an April Tommy John surgery. It marked a rough platform year but San Francisco still added him on a two-year, $11.5MM guarantee. With the typical Tommy John rehab taking roughly 14 months, Jackson isn’t expected to be ready for the start of next season. Zaidi acknowledged he might open the year on the 60-day injured list, which would keep him out of action until at least late May (link via Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News). That’s not suggestive of any kind of setback, as Zaidi said Jackson is “doing great in his rehab.”

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