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Max Kepler

Twins’ Outfield Depth Gives Front Office Numerous Trade Possibilities

By Anthony Franco | January 2, 2023 at 4:16pm CDT

The Twins entered the offseason with ample payroll room but have mostly stuck to smaller-scale additions. Kyle Farmer was brought in from the Reds to act as shortstop insurance in the event Carlos Correa departed. Christian Vázquez inked a three-year free agent deal to address the catcher situation the front office had prioritized, while Joey Gallo signed a one-year deal two weeks ago.

That latter move added another left-handed bat to what had already been a fairly crowded outfield mix. Even with Mark Contreras designated for assignment in a corresponding move, the Twins have nine listed outfielders on their 40-man roster. Six of them hit left-handed, which makes it seem likely they’ll subtract at least one from the group in a deal that nets help elsewhere on the roster.

Most of the attention will be focused on right fielder Max Kepler. He’s the most straightforward trade candidate in the outfield and has drawn some interest earlier in the offseason. Kepler is the most expensive of the group, due at least $9.5MM through the end of next season on the contract extension he signed back in 2019. Controllable via club option through 2024, he has the least amount of contractual control of anyone in the group.

That could all make the 29-year-old Kepler the most likely Twins outfielder to be dealt, but it’s also going to tamp down the appeal he’ll have on the trade market. He’s coming off a .227/.318/.348 line with just nine home runs through 446 plate appearances, his second straight season hitting slightly worse than league average. Kepler’s 36-homer showing from 2019 looks like an outlier. His plus defense in right field, quality plate discipline and perhaps a forthcoming benefit from the limitations on shifting mean he should still have some trade value on his contract, but Minnesota’s not likely to recoup an overwhelming return.

If the offers on Kepler aren’t especially persuasive, could president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, GM Thad Levine and their staff turn attention elsewhere? Minnesota has a number of younger outfielders who could instead be made available, particularly if the deal nets them help at shortstop and/or in higher-leverage relief innings.

  • Nick Gordon (controllable through 2027, likely eligible for arbitration after 2023)

Gordon might be the most appealing of the bunch. A former top five draftee and highly-regarded prospect, his status dipped from 2018-21. Gordon’s bat had seemed to stall out in the upper minors and his middle infield defense wasn’t exceptional enough to overcome it. It seemed as if he could find himself on the roster bubble after a tough rookie season in 2021, but Gordon was a valuable utility option for Minnesota last year. He hit .272/.316/.427 with nine homers in 443 plate appearances. Defensive metrics didn’t love his work up the middle but considered him a roughly average left fielder.

The 27-year-old isn’t entirely without question marks. He has a very aggressive offensive approach that consistently leads to modest walk totals. Some clubs figure to have concerns about how often he’ll maintain a suitable on-base percentage. Yet he’s also shown some defensive flexibility and hit very well when holding the platoon advantage. Last season, Gordon posted a .289/.329/.465 line against right-handed pitching and his 41.5% hard hit rate against northpaws ranked 12th among 299 hitters with 200+ plate appearances. He’s exhausted his minor league option years, meaning he has to stick on the big league roster.

  • Trevor Larnach (controllable through 2027, eligible for arbitration after 2024)

Larnach is also a former first-round pick who was a top minor league talent for a number of seasons. He’s shown solid power and plate discipline in the minors but the production has been more intermittent against big league pitching. The Oregon State product is a .226/.316/.371 hitter in 130 MLB games the past two years. Larnach has walked at a robust 10.2% clip while making plenty of hard contact. He’s offset those promising numbers with a few more grounders than ideal and, more importantly, a strikeout rate pushing 34%.

While he doesn’t have much defensive versatility, Larnach is a quality defender in the corner outfield. He’ll be 26 in February and is still two seasons from qualifying for arbitration. He probably hasn’t done enough to cement himself as an everyday player in the crowded Minnesota outfield but has shown enough promise to believe he could be a quality regular if he can even modestly improve his contact rate. Larnach’s 2022 season ended in June after he underwent surgery to repair a strain in his core muscle. He still has a pair of minor league options remaining, so it’s possible he heads back to Triple-A St. Paul if he sticks in Minnesota.

  • Alex Kirilloff (controllable through 2027, likely eligible for arbitration after 2023)

Another former first-round draftee and top prospect, Kirilloff hasn’t yet found much MLB success. He’s a .251/.295/.398 hitter in 104 MLB games, a disappointing start for a player whose bat is his carrying tool. It’s obvious Kirilloff’s capable of more if he can stay healthy, though, considering he’s had each of the past two seasons cut short by right wrist issues that necessitated surgery.

Kirilloff is still just 25 and mashed with St. Paul in 2022, posting a .359/.465/.641 line with ten homers in 35 games. That brought his career minor league slash line up to .328/.378/.519 in parts of five seasons. The Minnesota front office may have no interest in selling low on Kirilloff given that kind of offensive upside, but other clubs figure to at least inquire whether they can buy low given his injury issues. He has one option season left.

  • Matt Wallner (controllable through at least 2028)

Wallner is the least established of the group. The former Southern Mississippi star just made it onto the MLB roster as a September call-up. He played 18 games down the stretch. Wallner, who draws praise from prospect evaluators for his power potential, otherwise split the season between Double-A Wichita and St. Paul. He hit .277/.412/.542 with 32 home runs in 571 plate appearances between the top two minor league levels. Wallner just turned 25 and still has all three options remaining.

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MLBTR Originals Minnesota Twins Alex Kirilloff Matt Wallner Max Kepler Nick Gordon Trevor Larnach

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Yankees Have Discussed Outfield Trades With Twins, Diamondbacks

By Darragh McDonald | December 12, 2022 at 2:05pm CDT

The Yankees have had trade discussions with the Twins and Diamondbacks about their available outfielders, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post.

The Yankees already have two of their outfield positions accounted for, with Harrison Bader in center and Aaron Judge in right. There’s less certainty in left field, however, with Andrew Benintendi having departed via free agency. That leaves Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Cabrera as the remaining in-house options. Hicks is now 33 years old and has hit a combined .211/.322/.317 over the past two seasons. For a team in win-now mode like the Yankees, it’s understandable that they don’t want to rely on him as an everyday option. Cabrera just made his major league debut and only has 44 games under his belt. He fared well in that time but is a natural infielder who was learning outfield on the fly, meaning he’s probably best utilized as a utility option as opposed to an everyday player.

The desire for the Yanks to upgrade there is logical, as is their choice of trade partners. It was recently reported that the Twins had received some trade interest on Max Kepler, given that they have a large number of other outfield options on the roster. Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner and Mark Contreras are all options to join Byron Buxton in the Minnesota outfield. Since all of those guys apart from Buxton and Kepler have less than three years of MLB service time, it’s likely that the Twins would have some reluctance to parting with them.

Kepler, on the other hand, has one year remaining on his extension, though with a club option for 2024. He’ll be making a salary of $8.5MM in 2023 with a $1MM buyout on the $10MM option. Kepler has hit right around league average for his career, as his .232/.317/.427 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 101. However, his defense has allowed him to be a consistently productive player. He’s produced at least 2.0 wins above replacement in each of the last six full seasons, according to FanGraphs, in addition to adding 1.1 fWAR in 2020.

As for the Diamondbacks, they are also flush with young outfielders that have reportedly been popular in trade talks. Corbin Carroll is considered one of the best young players in the game and is the least available of the group. But aside from him, the club has Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Pavin Smith, Dominic Fletcher and Kyle Lewis in their outfield picture. Aside from Lewis, those guys all hit left-handed, as does Kepler.

A left-handed hitter would be a good fit in the Yankee lineup for a couple of reasons. First of all, the lineup skews right-handed, with Anthony Rizzo the only lefty who is currently likely to get regular playing time. Secondly, the club’s “short porch” in right field traditionally boosts the value of lefty hitters. With the upcoming ban on infield shifts for 2023, a lefty in pinstripes could sell out for hard contact and not have to worry as much about watching liners and grounders get swallowed up by the defense.

As for their preferences for a target, Sherman suggests the Yankees would prefer Varsho to Thomas. That’s not a surprising choice to make, given Varsho’s strong breakout campaign in 2022. He hit 27 home runs and stole 16 bases, producing an overall batting line of .235/.302/.443 for a wRC+ of 106. Varsho was also excellent in the field, with his all-around game leading to a 4.6 fWAR tally on the year. Thomas, meanwhile, hit just .231/.275/.344 in his MLB debut, leading to a wRC+ of 71. He was also strong on defense and was only 22 years old, turning 23 in April. He could still blossom into a great major leaguer but it might still take some time.

Of course, the Yanks won’t be alone in calling these clubs about their attractive outfielders. The previous reporting on the D-Backs had already listed the Brewers, Blue Jays, A’s, Marlins, White Sox and Reds as interested, while Sherman notes that the Mets were on the phone as well. They reportedly were trying to acquire Thomas, but when Arizona asked for prospect Brett Baty, the Mets decided to hang onto him and just sign Nimmo instead. If the Mets found the asking price on Thomas to be too high, it’s fair to wonder if the Yanks would want to pay it or go even higher for Varsho.

If the Yankees don’t find a deal to their liking on the trade market, Benintendi is still a free agent. Though he’s not quite the superstar who seemed to on the way to becoming earlier in his career, he’s still a solid regular. He only hit five home runs in 2022 but was solid in the field and hit .304/.373/.399 for a 122 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. MLBTR predicted he could land a contract of $54MM over four years, or $13.5MM per season. Sherman reports that Benintendi is looking for a five-year deal and it wouldn’t be a shock to see that come to fruition. Many players have landed much longer deals than expected this offseason, with each of Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Brandon Nimmo getting deals at least three years longer than projected. With Judge and Nimmo off the board, Benintendi is arguably the top remaining outfielder on the open market, which might lead to his market picking up soon.

It’s possible that the competitive balance tax might play a factor in a free agent pursuit, as Sherman opines that the Yankees might prefer to stay under the third CBT tier of $273MM. By crossing that line, the financial penalties would go up and the club would see its top 2023 draft pick pushed back by ten slots. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT number at $266MM, meaning that adding Benintendi or any other notable player could lead to the club attempting to find ways to shed salary, such as trying to trade Hicks or Josh Donaldson.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Minnesota Twins New York Mets New York Yankees Alek Thomas Andrew Benintendi Brandon Nimmo Brett Baty Daulton Varsho Max Kepler

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Max Kepler Has Drawn Trade Interest

By Darragh McDonald | December 8, 2022 at 11:20pm CDT

Twins outfielder Max Kepler has drawn trade interest, according to Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes of The Athletic. The report doesn’t list any specific teams that are interested in Kepler, nor does it say that the Twins are actively shopping him. But the fact that Kepler’s name has come up in conversations is noteworthy nonetheless.

Kepler, 30 in February, has spent his entire career in the Twins organization thus far, having been signed by them back in 2009 at the age of 16. He made it to the majors by 2015 and proved to be a serviceable player in his first few seasons. His bat was slightly subpar at that time, as he was hitting .233/.313/.417 at the end of the 2018 season, which included 1,633 plate appearances. That production was 5% below league average, as indicated by his 95 wRC+. However, he was still able to produce value with his speed and defense, as all of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average looked fondly upon his work on the grass.

Going into 2019, with Kepler having just turned 26, the Twins took a gamble on him by signing him to a five-year, $35MM extension. There was certainly risk involved since Kepler had yet to show above-average capabilities at the plate, but he came with a solid floor from the baserunning and glovework. After one year of that deal, he made the Twins look like geniuses. He hit 36 home runs and produced an overall slash line of .252/.336/.519 for a wRC+ of 122. FanGraphs calculated him to be worth 3.8 wins above replacement on the year.

He hasn’t been able to maintain that level of production, however. He slipped to a wRC+ of 109 in 2020 and then 97 and 95 in the two seasons after that. Those aren’t disastrous numbers and he’s still strong in other areas. Despite below-average work with the bat in each of the past two seasons, he still produced 2.3 fWAR in 2021 and 2.0 this year.

Kepler is now entering the final guaranteed season of that aforementioned extension, where he will make a salary of $8.5MM with a $10MM club option for 2024 that has a $1MM buyout. That level of pay is more than reasonable for a solid outfielder, though it’s unlikely to give him tremendous trade value. As mentioned by Gleeman and Hayes, though Kepler is receiving interest, it’s not enough for him “to be the centerpiece of a deal bringing back a prominent player.”

There are some parallels to Hunter Renfroe, another good-but-not-elite corner outfielder. Over the past couple of seasons, Renfroe has produced 4.5 fWAR, right in the same range as the 4.3 that Kepler produced. He’s going into his final season of arbitration eligibility and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an $11.2MM salary. The Brewers recently traded him to the Angels for three young pitchers, none of whom were especially highly rated by prospect evaluators.

Kepler is arguably a more attractive target than Renfroe since the 2024 club option provides a bit of upside should he find that higher gear that he had in 2019, but he’s not likely to net a huge return. However, the Twins might entertain trade offers regardless because their outfield picture is somewhat crowded. Byron Buxton should have center field locked down as long as he’s healthy, while Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner and Mark Contreras are also in the mix to varying degrees. Many of those players dealt with injuries in 2022 and aren’t guarantees to be healthy next year, but that’s still a lot of candidates for two corner outfield jobs and the designated hitter slot. Those players all still have years of cheap control remaining, as none of them have reached the three-year service mark so far. Kepler is more established than any of them but his higher salary and proximity to free agency make him a more logical trade candidate for Minnesota.

The Twins shouldn’t be tight for cash right now, though that could change. Roster Resource pegs their 2023 payroll at just $98MM at the moment. Last year, they opened the season at $134MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, which leaves them plenty of wiggle room. However, they have apparently made multiple offers to Correa with varying lengths and salaries. It was one year ago that he and the team made a surprising connection on a three-year deal that saw him paid $35.1MM annually, but with the opt-out that he eventually triggered. If they were to reconnect on anything in that salary range, their payroll would suddenly be right back in line with last year’s spending. If money is suddenly tight, trading Kepler could be away of trimming a few bucks while simultaneously addressing other target areas such as the catching corps or the bullpen.

Though no specific teams have been connected to Kepler, it stands to reason that his market would largely overlap with other left-handed hitting outfielders like Brandon Nimmo, Andrew Benintendi, Michael Conforto and Cody Bellinger. The Cubs already landed Bellinger and Nimmo is going back to the Mets, but some other teams that have been interested in that group include the Blue Jays, Giants, Astros and many others. Bellinger reportedly had 11 teams interested in his services at one point, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Any team that fails to line up on Benintendi or Conforto could theoretically look to Kepler as a backup plan, though they could also call the Diamondbacks, who are likely to deal from their own outfield surplus.

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Minnesota Twins Max Kepler

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AL Notes: Nevin, Angels, Strahm, Red Sox, Twins

By Mark Polishuk | October 1, 2022 at 9:29pm CDT

Angels interim manager Phil Nevin told reporters (including The Athletic’s Sam Blum) that he hasn’t yet had any talks with the front office about remaining in the job for the 2023 season.  Nevin moved from third base coach to the interim skipper’s role after Joe Maddon was fired in June, and the Angels have a 44-57 record under Nevin’s stewardship, though between injuries and some imperfect roster construction, it can be argued that Nevin hasn’t had much to work with in trying to get the Halos on track.

The manager’s job is one of many questions facing the Angels this offseason, with the franchise’s possible sale acting as the overhanging influence on every decision.  There has been some speculation that this uncertainty could benefit Nevin’s chances, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal has written that the Angels could prefer to just retain Nevin rather than sign another manager to a multi-year contract this winter (thus leaving a new owner with that deal on the books, when that owner might naturally prefer to make their own choice at skipper).  The front office’s lack of contact with Nevin might not necessarily be a sign that he isn’t a candidate, as GM Perry Minasian and owner Arte Moreno might just be waiting until the offseason to conduct a proper search.

More from around the American League…

  • Amidst a difficult Red Sox season, Matt Strahm has been a bright spot, posting a 3.92 ERA over 43 2/3 innings and filling a number of different roles in Boston’s bullpen.  After being non-tendered by the Padres last winter, Strahm signed a one-year, $3MM free agent deal with the Sox in March and he told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo that he “would love” a return to Boston in 2023.  Strahm also said he is open to returning to a relief role, but also wants to market himself as a starting pitcher.  Strahm made 16 starts for the Padres in 2019 but none since, as knee injuries limited the southpaw in any role in 2020-21.  However, Strahm said he is ready to resume a starter’s workload, as a consistent running program has made his knees “feel better than when I was drafted.”  Since the Red Sox have multiple starters slated for free agency this winter, re-signing Strahm and at least giving him a trial run as a starter would make some sense, as the Sox would then have the fallback of moving the left-hander back into the bullpen.  Cotillo reported that the Brewers, Royals, and Tigers were among the teams vying for Strahm last offseason, so any of that trio could conceivably still have interest in his next trip to the open market.
  • Max Kepler, Gio Urshela, and Emilio Pagan could all be trade candidates for the Twins this offseason, as The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman breaks down why Minnesota may be open to swapping any of these veterans.  Naturally, money is one factor — Kepler is guaranteed at least $9.5MM in 2023, while Urshela (paid $6.55MM in 2022) and Pagan ($2.3MM) are due raises in their final year of salary arbitration before free agency.  Kepler and Pagan are also coming off underwhelming seasons, while Gleeman figures the solid Urshela likely has the most trade value of the trio, should the Twins want to open third base for Jose Miranda.
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Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Angels Minnesota Twins Notes Emilio Pagan Giovanny Urshela Matt Strahm Max Kepler Phil Nevin

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Twins Make Several Roster Moves

By Darragh McDonald | September 17, 2022 at 10:45am CDT

The Twins have announced a series of roster moves, with outfielder Max Kepler going on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 14, with a right wrist sprain. Fellow outfielder Matt Wallner has been selected to the club’s roster. To create space on the 40-man, right-hander Drew Strotman has been designated for assignment. Additionally, Louie Varland has been recalled to serve as the “29th man” for today’s doubleheader.

Kepler’s trip to the IL, his second of the year, will add to a very frustrating pile of injuries for the Twins this year. Kepler joins eight other position players who are currently on the shelf, in addition to eight pitchers, giving them a total of 17 players currently on the IL. The Twins spent months atop the AL Central division standings but have seen these mounting injuries drag them down to five games back of the Guardians, with the White Sox in between.

Kepler’s had a bit of a down year but will surely still be missed by the club. His batting line of .227/.318/.348 amounts to a 95 wRC+, or 5% below league average, but he’s still produced 2.0 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs due to his strong work in right field. Since the move is retroactive, Kepler can return in a week. However, with just over two weeks left on the schedule, there will be a narrow window for Kepler to work with.

Wallner, 24, was selected 39th overall by the Twins in the 2019 draft, climbing his way up the minor league ladder since then. This year, he’s split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, getting into 128 games between the two. In that time, he’s hit 27 home runs and has slashed .277/.412/.541, 144 wRC+. He’s walked in an impressive 17% of his plate appearances but also struck out in 29.8% of them. He’s been in the back half of Baseball America’s top 30 Minnesota prospects for the past few years but jumped up to #8 on their most recent iteration, thanks to his strong season here in 2022. FanGraphs views him similarly, putting him in the #10 slot. Both reports compliment his tremendous power but raise concerns about the whiffs. He’ll try his hand at major league pitching, beginning by starting in today’s game.

Strotman, 26, was drafted by the Rays but came over to the Twins in the Nelson Cruz deal last year. Though he was largely a starting pitcher in his first few professional seasons, he struggled enough after the trade that Minnesota tried moving him to the bullpen this year. Unfortunately, Strotman hasn’t taken to the switch so far, as he’s produced a 6.44 ERA in 50 1/3 Triple-A innings this season. That’s come with a strong 51.1% ground ball rate and 24.2% strikeout rate, but a dismal 13.8% walk rate. The control has been a nagging issue for Strotman, who’s posted double-digit walk rates in all of his recent stops.

Despite those command issues, Strotman has some promising traits and can still be optioned for the remainder of this year and one more season. Teams searching for pitching depth could take him on as a project and try to improve that control. With the trade deadline passed, the Twins will have to put Strotman on waivers in the coming days.

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Minnesota Twins Transactions Drew Strotman Matt Wallner Max Kepler

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AL Central Notes: Guardians, Hosmer, Kepler, Brieske

By Mark Polishuk | August 6, 2022 at 5:30pm CDT

It was a quiet trade deadline for the Guardians, as Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes that the club “at times…felt they were close” to landing Sean Murphy from the Athletics, yet no deal was completed.  Murphy was known to be a trade target for the Guards, though another somewhat surprising name was at least briefly on their radar, as Hoynes reports that Cleveland and San Diego had some talks about first baseman Eric Hosmer.  However, those discussions didn’t get far, as the Guardians are one of the 10 teams on Hosmer’s no-trade list.  Hosmer also used his no-trade protection to scuttle his involvement in the Padres’ blockbuster deal with the Nationals for Juan Soto, so the Padres instead moved Hosmer to the Red Sox.

San Diego dealt Hosmer and two prospects to Boston for lefty pitching prospect Jay Groome, and the Padres also covering basically all of the $44MM remaining on Hosmer’s deal (which runs through the 2025 season).  It’s fair to guess that the Guardians might have had interest in something similar, with Hosmer joining Josh Naylor and Owen Miller as part of the first base/DH mix.  Hosmer might have been viewed by the Guards as just a one-season fill-in now that the team is seemingly willing to part ways with Franmil Reyes, but with the Padres footing the bill, Cleveland could have kept Hosmer around as a veteran complement to their younger players.

More from around the AL Central…

  • The Twins activated outfielder Max Kepler from the 10-day injured list, and optioned outfielder Mark Contreras to Triple-A.  Kepler is making a relatively quick return from a fracture in his right baby toe, after he was hit by a pitch on July 24.  Kepler has generated 2.0 fWAR over his 85 games this season, thanks to solid defense and an above-average (113 wRC+) offensive line of .244/.344/.390 in 337 plate appearances.
  • Tigers right-hander Beau Brieske had a Triple-A rehab start yesterday, and manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including The Detroit News’ Chris McCosky) that Brieske is perhaps on track to be activated from the 15-day injured list in time to start the Tigers’ game with the Guardians on Wednesday.  Forearm soreness sent Brieske to the IL on July 18, but it appears as though the rookie has avoided any serious setback — a rare bit of good health news within an injury-plagued season for Detroit pitchers.  All of these injuries open the door for Brieske to make his Major League debut, and the righty posted a respectable 4.19 ERA over his first 15 starts and 81 2/3 innings in the Show.
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Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers Minnesota Twins Notes San Diego Padres Transactions Beau Brieske Eric Hosmer Mark Contreras Max Kepler

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Twins Place Max Kepler, Miguel Sano On 10-Day Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | July 30, 2022 at 4:26pm CDT

The Twins announced that outfielder Max Kepler and first baseman Miguel Sano have been placed on the 10-day injured list.  Kepler has a toe fracture, while Sano is dealing with left knee inflammation.  In corresponding moves, outfielder Mark Contreras was called up from Triple-A and the Twins selected the contract of infielder Tim Beckham from Triple-A, while Bailey Ober was moved to the 60-day IL to create a 40-man roster spot for Beckham.

Kepler hasn’t played since he was hit by a pitch on July 24, and his IL placement is retroactive to the 27th.  While he hasn’t been on the field, Kepler has been taking part in limited baseball activities and even running drills, so it is possible he might only miss the minimum 10 days if he continues to show good progress (or if the fracture doesn’t continue to limit his ability to run).

It has been a curious year for Kepler, who has hit .244/.344/.390 over 337 plate appearances, good for an above-average 113 wRC+.  However, between a wealth of excellent Statcast metrics and a .361 xwOBA, Kepler is actually underachieving compared to what he “should” be hitting based on his advanced numbers.  For the third straight season, opponents are deploying shifts against Kepler almost every time he steps to the plate, which has largely neutralized much of Kepler’s hard contact.

Still, Kepler has been a very productive player overall, between his still-solid batting numbers and his excellent right field glove.  His absence will further hamper a Minnesota outfield that has already been shorthanded by Byron Buxton’s lingering knee issues, as Buxton has been getting a lot of DH time rather than his customary spot in center field.  The left-handed hitting Contreras will fill Kepler’s role to some extent, as the Twins will now be juggling Buxton, Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff and reserves Contreras, Gilberto Celestino, and Kyle Garlick around the three outfield spots.

Sano was only just activated from the 60-day IL earlier this week, making it troubling that he has already been sidelined again by issues with his surgically-repaired knee.  His latest injury actually occurred when Sano was on his minor league rehab assignment, as Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park) that Sano hurt his knee while sliding in his last rehab game.  An MRI is scheduled for Sano on Monday.

Sano underwent his surgery in early May, and has only played in 20 games this season, posting a measly .345 OPS over 71 PA.  There was some thought that the Twins might move on from Sano entirely given that he now seems like the odd man out on the roster, yet this latest IL placement will hold off any decisions on that front.  If Monday’s MRI reveals bad news, it could mark the end of Sano’s 2022 season, and quite likely his Minnesota tenure — the Twins will very likely buy out (for $2.75MM) their $14MM club option Sano for the 2023 season.

Beckham signed a minor league deal with the Twins in February, and he might now be in line for his first taste of MLB action since 2019.  The former first overall pick didn’t play anywhere during the canceled 2020 minor league season, and spent all of 2021 in the White Sox organization with their Triple-A affiliate.  Beckham has played all over the infield and also seen some time as a left fielder in his career, so he’ll provide the Twins with some utility depth off the bench.

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Minnesota Twins Transactions Bailey Ober Mark Contreras Max Kepler Miguel Sano Tim Beckham

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Twins Sign Aaron Sanchez, Tyler Thornburg To Minors Deals

By Anthony Franco | June 6, 2022 at 5:10pm CDT

The Twins have agreed to a minor league contract with starter Aaron Sanchez, reports Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (Twitter link). Minnesota also signed reliever Tyler Thornburg to a non-roster deal over the weekend, assigning him to Triple-A St. Paul.

Sanchez began the season in the Nationals’ organization after signing a minor league deal in March. He opened the year in Triple-A but was selected to the majors in mid-April. The 29-year-old made seven starts with the Nats but was tagged for an 8.33 ERA as he struck out a career-low 11.3% of opposing hitters. Sanchez threw a fair amount of strikes and induced grounders on over the half the batted balls against him, but he surrendered six home runs in 31 1/3 innings while struggling to miss bats.

Washington designated Sanchez for assignment and outrighted him off their roster late last month, at which point he elected free agency. The Southern California native once looked like a potential rotation building block for the Blue Jays, making an All-Star appearance and leading American League qualifiers in ERA in 2016. Sanchez has assumed more of a journeyman role in the last few seasons, though, particularly since undergoing shoulder surgery in September 2019. After working in the mid-upper 90s at peak, he averaged just north of 90 MPH on his fastball with the Giants last year and a pedestrian 92 MPH for Washington this season.

Thornburg has also spent time in the NL East this year, as he began the season with the Braves. Atlanta had signed the veteran reliever to a $900K contract during Spring Training, and he opened the season in the big league bullpen. Thornburg allowed six runs (four earned) in 9 1/3 frames, striking out ten while issuing five walks. His early-season velocity was right in line with career norms, but Thornburg’s swing-and-miss rate was underwhelming and the Braves had consigned him to lower-leverage work. Atlanta designated him for assignment and released him in late May.

The 33-year-old has appeared in parts of nine MLB seasons, suiting up with the Brewers, Red Sox, Reds and Braves. Thornburg was quietly one of the league’s more effective late-game weapons in Milwaukee between 2013-16, but he’s struggled with injuries and underperformance in the years since then. Thornburg, who made his organizational debut with St. Paul yesterday, will try to pitch his way into a Minnesota bullpen that has been middle-of-the-pack thus far.

The rotation was generally expected to be a weakness, but Twins’ starters enter play Monday with the 7th-lowest collective ERA (3.54). That’s a big reason the club is currently sitting 32-24 and four and a half games clear of the competition in the AL Central, but they’ve been hit by a series of injuries over the past month.

Minnesota lost another rotation member this evening, announcing that right-hander Bailey Ober has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to June 3, due to a right groin strain. That’s the same issue that already resulted in an IL stint earlier in the season, as he was on the shelf for the first three weeks of May.

Ober made it back to the mound on May 22, and he’s made three starts since returning. The 26-year-old has allowed nine runs in 14 innings over that time, and he’ll apparently need some more time to recover. Ober earned himself a season-opening rotation spot with a solid 4.19 ERA showing across 20 starts as a rookie last year. He’d allowed only eight runs in 19 2/3 innings through four April outings prior to his first IL stint.

Minnesota is also without Joe Ryan — currently on the COVID-19 IL — and Sonny Gray, who hit the IL late last week due to a pectoral strain. Josh Winder has been out since mid-May dealing with a shoulder impingement, and the team lost Chris Paddack to Tommy John surgery last month. Dylan Bundy, Devin Smeltzer and Chris Archer are rotation locks, with Cole Sands probably the top depth option on the 40-man roster. Prospects Jordan Balazovic and Ronny Henriquez are already on the 40-man and starting games with St. Paul, but both have struggled mightily this year. Sanchez joins Chi Chi González as experienced, non-roster depth options with the Saints.

In additional procedural moves, the Twins reinstated four players — Max Kepler, Emilio Pagán, Trevor Megill and Caleb Thielbar — from the restricted list. Jharel Cotton and Ian Hamilton, both of whom had been selected to the roster as designated COVID-19 substitutes before the club’s weekend series in Toronto, have been removed from the 40-man and returned to St. Paul. That’s also true of González, who started Friday’s game but was returned over the weekend.

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Minnesota Twins Transactions Aaron Sanchez Bailey Ober Caleb Thielbar Ian Hamilton Jharel Cotton Max Kepler Trevor Megill Tyler Thornburg

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Twins Select Jharel Cotton, Ian Hamilton

By Anthony Franco | June 3, 2022 at 3:48pm CDT

The Twins announced a series of roster moves ahead of this weekend’s series in Toronto. Minnesota selected the contracts of right-handers Chi Chi González, Jharel Cotton and Ian Hamilton while recalling outfielder Mark Contreras from Triple-A St. Paul. González will start this evening’s game, as had been reported yesterday.

In corresponding moves, four players — Max Kepler, Emilio Pagán, Trevor Megill and Caleb Thielbar — have been placed on the restricted list. That’s typical procedure for players who haven’t been vaccinated against COVID-19 on teams heading to Toronto. The Canadian government prohibits unvaccinated athletes from crossing the border, so that quartet will be out of action until next week.

Cotton has bounced on and off the roster a couple times this season. Claimed off waivers from the Rangers last winter, he’s made four appearances in relief for the Twins. Over 6 2/3 innings, Cotton has allowed just two runs but issued six walks. He’s impressed in St. Paul, allowing four runs in 11 2/3 frames while striking out 18 batters against three walks.

Hamilton is in line for his team debut, nearly a year and a half after Minnesota claimed him off waivers from the Phillies. The Twins outrighted the Washington State product off their 40-man roster a few weeks later, and he spent the entire 2021 campaign in St. Paul. He posted a 4.12 ERA across 59 innings last year, striking out an excellent 33.5% of opponents but walking a sky-high 15.2% of batters faced. The 26-year-old maintained that strikeout prowess while getting his walk rate to a more manageable 9.6% this year, allowing only one run in 12 2/3 frames. Hamilton has 14 games of MLB experience under his belt, with the 2018-20 White Sox.

While the Twins didn’t specify that González, Cotton and Hamilton were coming up as designated COVID substitutes, that appears to be the case. Dan Hayes of the Athletic tweets the trio won’t have to pass through waivers when the others are able to return to the roster. That’s unique to COVID substitutes, who won’t occupy a permanent 40-man roster spot.

The commissioner’s office has the unilateral authority to grant teams permission to designate players as substitutes, which it does when it determines a club has been particularly affected by virus protocols. In all likelihood, each of González, Cotton and Hamilton will come off the 40-man roster on Monday.

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Minnesota Twins Transactions Caleb Thielbar Chi Chi Gonzalez Emilio Pagan Ian Hamilton Jharel Cotton Max Kepler Trevor Megill

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Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: 27 Regulars Who Could Plausibly Change Teams

By Anthony Franco | February 14, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

In recent days, MLBTR has taken a look at some players who could find themselves on the move between the conclusion of the lockout and the start of the season. First, Tim Dierkes looked at the league’s 14 likeliest trade candidates. Steve Adams then ran through some impact players who, to varying degrees, could find themselves in trade rumors whenever transactions resume.

Today we’ll look at other regulars who we could envision changing uniforms in the relatively near future. Acquiring any of the players on today’s list wouldn’t be quite as splashy as landing the stars we covered last week, but it’s easy to envision any one of them assuming an important, regular role on a new team.

Before we get into the list, a quick note on methodology. In defining “plausible” trade candidates, we looked at players we felt had somewhere between a 20% and 50% chance of being dealt before the start of the season. It’s not meant to be an exhaustive list of trade possibilities — almost any player around the league could theoretically move if another team made the right offer — but it’s meant to capture a tier of regulars we wouldn’t be surprised to see change hands. In an exercise of this nature, there has to be a somewhat arbitrary line that delineates the last of the players who, in our view, are “plausible” trade candidates. Players like Gary Sánchez and Jesús Aguilar were discussed internally but fell just on the other side of that line.

Now, on to the list. The players are ordered by what we feel to be their likelihood of getting traded (all arbitration projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz):

John Means, Orioles SP

Buster Olney of ESPN reported in November that the Orioles were “dangling” Means in trade talks. Baltimore’s rebuilding and seemingly amenable to offers on anyone on the roster, but it remains to be seen how actively they’ll push to make their top starting pitcher available. With Means controllable through 2024 and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary, the O’s needn’t force a deal this offseason.

The 28-year-old presents a tricky evaluation for teams. He got off to an excellent start to the season, posting a 2.28 ERA (albeit with a 4.20 FIP) through his first 71 innings. Means then landed on the injured list with a shoulder strain. After returning in July, he posted a 4.88 ERA down the stretch, watching his strikeout rate tumble almost six percentage points in the process. The medical evaluation will be critical, but teams that are comfortable with the state of Means’ shoulder moving forward might expect him to regain the strong mid-rotation form he showed early in the year.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers SS/3B

Kiner-Falefa has been a solid regular for the Rangers for the past couple seasons. He spent 2020 at third base, then was tasked with moving up the defensive spectrum to shortstop last year. Defensive Runs Saved loved his glovework at short; Statcast’s Outs Above Average did not. Kiner-Falefa finished third in the 2021 Fielding Bible shortstop award voting. There’s not much question he’s a very good defender at the hot corner, and most teams would probably at least feel comfortable with him moonlighting at shortstop if need be.

Texas remade their middle infield in free agency, signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Kiner-Falefa could kick back to third base, but the Rangers have top prospect Josh Jung nearing big league readiness at the position. Controllable for two more seasons and projected for a $4.9MM salary, he could stick around as a utility guy. But if another team buys him as a plus defender at shortstop, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Texas ship him somewhere he can continue playing everyday. Kiner-Falefa’s .271/.312/.357 line fits better at the bottom of a lineup, but he brings good contact skills and a solid infield glove to the table. MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored the possibility of a Kiner-Falefa trade at greater length this afternoon.

Raimel Tapia, Rockies LF

Reports out of Denver have suggested the Rockies could look to move Tapia, projected for a $3.9MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration-eligible season. The Rox need to bolster an offense that was among the league’s worst last year, and they’re seemingly planning to make a splash in the corner outfield. That’d probably push Tapia — who’s spent almost his entire MLB career in left field — out of the everyday lineup.

Tapia has never hit at the level one would hope from an everyday left fielder. One could argue he’s better suited for a fourth outfield role regardless. He’s a plus runner with good bat-to-ball skills, though, and he ranked among Baseball America’s top 50 overall prospects back in 2017. It’s certainly not out of the question another team takes a flier on him, particularly if the Rockies are willing to take a minimal return after acquiring his replacement.

Chris Paddack, Padres SP

The pre-lockout agreement with Nick Martínez bumped a bunch of the Friars’ younger arms down a peg on the rotation depth chart. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, that could pave the way for them to move one of their controllable starters. If they do, Paddack looks the likeliest of the bunch. He’s arbitration-eligible and projected for a $2.1MM salary. That’s certainly affordable, but the Padres could be looking to open some payroll space after exceeding the luxury tax threshold last year.

Paddack has had back-to-back down seasons after a promising rookie campaign. But he’s still only 26 years old, boasts pristine control, and teams can dream on him recapturing his 2019 form. That he’s controllable for three seasons could be of particular appeal to teams like the Rangers and Nationals (who expressed interest at last summer’s deadline) who might be eyeing 2023 as a more plausible contention year.

Ryan Yarbrough, Rays SP

Yarbrough has been a flexible member of the Rays pitching staff for the past few years. He’s worked variably as a traditional long reliever, a bulk man behind an opener and as a true starting pitcher. Yarbrough posted an ERA of 4.13 or lower in each of his first three seasons, but he scuffled to a 5.11 mark in 2021. That came without meaningful changes to his strikeout and walk numbers, though, and Yarbrough remained excellent at avoiding hard contact.

The Rays likely anticipate the southpaw will return to form, but his price is escalating. Tampa Bay is already projected for a franchise-record payroll, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they move some of their arbitration-eligible players for pre-arb or minor league talent. Yarbrough is projected for a $4.4MM salary and remains under team control through 2024.

Austin Meadows, Rays LF/DH

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote over the weekend that the Rays could be open to moving Meadows, who is projected for a $4.3MM salary. Controllable through 2024, Meadows would be a long-term option for Tampa Bay or any potential acquiring team, but the Rays have proven willing to field offers on almost anyone on the roster. And with the aforementioned payroll outlook for the typically low-spending club, the front office figures to be amenable to ways to pare back costs.

Meadows is coming off a decent season, in which he hit .234/.315/.458 with 27 homers over 591 plate appearances. That marked a bounceback from a below-average offensive showing during the shortened 2020 schedule, but it’s a fair bit shy of his career-best .291/.364/.558 line the season before that. Meadows isn’t a great defender, so he needs to mash to be a star. He did that in 2019, but he’s otherwise been a good-not-great hitter. That’s still a valuable player to have on hand, but unless the Rays anticipate him replicating his peak season this year, it’d be sensible to listen to offers.

Tony Kemp, Athletics 2B/LF

Kemp has bounced around the league a bit in recent seasons. He plays second base and left field, but advanced metrics have pegged him as a fringy defender at the keystone. Kemp doesn’t bring a ton of power to the table, and he’s already 30 years old. It’s not the easiest profile to make work, explaining why he has yet to find a long-term home.

There’s no questioning Kemp’s 2021 results, though. Over 397 plate appearances, he hit .279/.382/.418. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged him as worth around three wins above replacement. Kemp has excellent plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills, and he could be trending towards a late-career emergence in the mold of former A’s second baseman Tommy La Stella. The market for teams on the hunt for second base help is pretty thin. Kemp, who avoided arbitration on a $2.25MM salary and is controllable through 2023, would be an affordable pickup if the A’s move him as part of their anticipated post-lockout efforts to trim payroll and reboot the roster.

Manuel Margot, Rays OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently looked at the possibility of the Rays making Margot available. He’s projected for a $5MM arbitration salary as he enters his final year of club control. That’s a reasonable salary for a player of Margot’s caliber, but Tampa Bay has plenty of cheaper, controllable outfielders on hand, and top prospect Josh Lowe looks ready to step into an everyday role somewhere in the grass after a monster season in Triple-A.

It’s not out of the question Tampa trades away multiple outfielders, but if they move the more expensive Kevin Kiermaier, Margot sticking around to handle center field is certainly possible. The latter might have broader appeal around the league, though. Not only is he set to make around a third of Kiermaier’s remaining guarantees, Statcast credited Margot with a league-best +16 Outs Above Average in the outfield last year. He’s never been more than an average hitter, but acceptable offense coupled with Gold Glove caliber defense is a very valuable player. There’s also a dearth of center fielders available in free agency at this point.

Max Kepler, Twins OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently broke down Kepler’s trade candidacy at great length. Guaranteed $16.25MM through 2023 and controllable for 2024 via club option, he’d be an affordable target for teams seeking outfield help. Yet Kepler’s offensive production has ticked down towards league average following what seemed to be a breakout showing in 2019. The Twins might prefer to hold onto him in hopes he rediscovers that form, but they just extended Byron Buxton and have former top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach in the fold as corner outfield options. A Kepler deal could be a creative way to address some of the team’s other issues in the starting rotation or at shortstop.

Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays C

The Jays’ catching depth has been a topic of conversation throughout the offseason. Would Toronto part with one of their controllable backstops to land help in the rotation or infield? The signing of Kevin Gausman probably diminishes their need to land an impact starter via trade, although they’re likely to at least look for depth pieces.

Reese McGuire is a capable backup catcher who’s out of minor league options. Top prospect Gabriel Moreno is rapidly approaching and could be in the majors by the end of the season. Jansen offers a solid bend of power and defensive acumen, while Kirk has otherworldly bat-to-ball skills and an elite minor league track record. Toronto doesn’t have to move anyone from this group, but it could be an opportunity to consolidate their catching depth for help elsewhere on the roster.

Amed Rosario, Guardians SS/CF

Cleveland acquired Rosario from the Mets as part of the Francisco Lindor trade last offseason. His offensive numbers (.282/.321/.409) were fine, although neither Defensive Runs Saved nor Statcast was fond of his glovework at shortstop. Rosario’s aggressive approach at the plate will probably keep him from emerging as the star many envisioned he’d become as a prospect, but he has alright career hitting numbers, runs well and could be an option for teams at any of the up-the-middle positions on the diamond (aside from catcher).

The Guardians have a lot of infield depth, with several talented prospects in the high minors and already on the 40-man roster. With their seemingly annual need for outfield help, a Rosario trade could help balance the roster. Cleveland could also just give him more run in center or left field themselves, but it might be more straightforward to trade him to an infield-needy team with an outfield surplus. Rosario is projected for a $5MM salary and controllable through 2023.

Josh Bell, Nationals 1B

I covered Bell’s trade candidacy in greater length in late December. The Nationals are taking a step back in 2022, and he’s entering his final year of club control. A projected $10MM salary might scare away some suitors, but Bell would be a notable offensive upgrade for many teams around the league. The switch-hitter posted a .261/.347/.476 season-long mark, and he had an excellent 277/.381/.506 line with more walks than strikeouts after the All-Star Break.

Garrett Cooper, Marlins 1B/COF

Cooper has looked like a viable trade candidate for a few seasons. He’s part of a corner outfield/first base rotation in Miami that got a bit more crowded when the Fish signed Avisaíl García. The Marlins have suggested they could use García as their regular center fielder, but that’s less than ideal. If they land a center fielder after the lockout and push García to a more suitable right field role, Cooper might find himself squeezed for playing time.

A late bloomer, Cooper’s already 31 years old. He has quietly been a very productive hitter when healthy, though, including an excellent .284/.371/.478 line (133 wRC+) in 383 plate appearances since the start of 2020. Health is a big caveat for Cooper, who has had stints on the injured list in all five of his MLB seasons and missed the second half of last year with a left elbow injury. As MLBTR’s TC Zencka explored in December, he’d returned to taking batting practice and figures to be ready for 2022. Projected for a modest $3MM salary with an additional season of control thereafter, he could be an interesting flier, particularly for NL teams looking to add offense if/when the universal designated hitter is finalized.

Anthony Santander, Orioles RF/LF

Santander’s name has been floated around the rumor mill in years past. The Orioles are rebuilding, and he’s more of a complimentary piece than a likely member of the long-term core. Santander is limited to the corner outfield and has a very aggressive approach, though, making it crucial he makes plenty of contact and hits for power. He did that in the shortened 2020 season en route to a .261/.315/.575 line, but he couldn’t follow up on that success.

Last season, Santander had a couple injured list stints and struggled to a .241/.286/.433 mark. He signed for $3.15MM to avoid arbitration in November and remains controllable through 2024. Given their competitive window, the O’s would certainly listen to offers on Santander. But it remains to be seen whether there’ll be sufficient demand that Baltimore wouldn’t be better off hanging onto him and hoping he approximates his 2020 performance over the first few months of next season. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently explored Santander’s trade candidacy in greater depth.

Zach Plesac, Guardians SP

Plesac isn’t yet arbitration eligible and he’s controllable for another four seasons. The Guardians might simply prefer to hang onto him, particularly after their 2021 season was derailed by rotation injuries. Yet as mentioned with regards to Rosario, Cleveland has significant concerns in the outfield. They’ve dealt key starting pitchers over the past couple seasons, seemingly confident in their ability to continue to develop less-heralded prospects into capable rotation cogs.

If they were to deal a starter, Plesac would seem the likeliest candidate. The Guardians aren’t about to rebuild, and moving Shane Bieber or Aaron Civale might be too significant a blow to their hopes of contending in 2022. Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill might still have upside Cleveland’s hoping to unlock. Plesac’s small sample excellence in 2020 was probably inflated by a regional schedule against Central-division teams that, by and large, weren’t good offensively. That season aside, he hasn’t posted particularly impressive strikeout rates. But he’s got excellent control, gets a decent number of grounders, and should be a solid bet for league average rotation innings over the next few seasons.

Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks SP

The D-Backs were the worst team in the National League last season. They don’t seem to have the appetite for a full rebuild, but Kelly’s entering his final year of club control. At age 33, he’s probably not an extension candidate, so Arizona figures to be open to moving him.

Kelly’s not an overpowering arm. He posted a 4.44 ERA over 158 innings last season, striking out only 19.5% of batters faced. He throws plenty of strikes, though, and he gets a decent number of grounders. Playing on a modest $5.25MM salary, Kelly would be an eminently affordable pickup for contenders looking to stabilize the back of the rotation.

Mitch Garver/Ryan Jeffers, Twins C

Garver missed a good chunk of last season after suffering a gruesome injury. During his 243 plate appearances, he mashed at a .256/.358/.517 clip with 13 home runs (137 wRC+). That’s two of the past three seasons with some of the best offensive output of any catcher in baseball. He’s controllable for two seasons and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary. Jeffers hasn’t yet hit arbitration-eligibility and still has minor league options remaining. He struck out too often as a rookie, but he hit for power and is a well-regarded defender who entered the year among the sport’s top catching prospects.

As with Kepler, a trade of Garver or Jeffers would probably be about dealing from an area of surplus to address the rotation or shortstop. Both players could plausibly be regular catchers next season, and they’d lose some of their value if penciled into the DH role regularly. Given Garver’s injury troubles, Minnesota might prefer to hold their depth behind the dish.

Elieser Hernández, Marlins SP

The Marlins have reportedly fielded offers on their arbitration-eligible starting pitchers this winter, perhaps in search of controllable outfield help. Miami already thinned their rotation depth a bit by including Zach Thompson in the Jacob Stallings deal, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they make one more move in that vein.

Over the past two years, Hernández owns a 3.84 ERA in 77 1/3 innings with very strong strikeout and walk rates (26.3% and 5.7%, respectively). He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s likely to always have some difficulty keeping the ball in the yard. He missed most of 2021 recovering from a pair of long-term injuries (biceps inflammation and a quad strain). Because of those drawbacks, he won’t be in as much demand as rotation mate Pablo López. Yet another team may try to take a shot on Hernández’s promising strikeout/walk profile, particularly since he’s only projected for a $1.4MM salary and controllable through 2024.

Chris Stratton, Pirates RP

I covered Stratton’s trade candidacy at greater length in December. He’s a 31-year-old reliever controllable for two seasons on a rebuilding team. The Bucs aren’t going to view him as a core piece of the rebuild, and it stands to reason they’d welcome the opportunity to pick up an intriguing low-level prospect. Over the past two seasons, Stratton has been the kind of capable if unexciting middle relief piece contending teams need. He won’t bring back a franchise-changing return, but at a projected $2.2MM salary, he should draw some interest.

Cole Sulser, Orioles RP

Sulser had a quietly strong second half with the Orioles, occasionally factoring into their closing mix. A late bloomer, he’ll be 32 by Opening Day. So while they’re under no contractual pressure to move him, the rebuilding O’s would certainly listen to offers. After putting up a 2.70 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate, he should be of interest to contenders. Sulser isn’t yet arbitration eligible and can be controlled through 2025.

Adrian Houser/Eric Lauer, Brewers SP

The Brewers certainly aren’t obligated to trade either of Houser or Lauer, both of whom are coming off strong seasons. Still, the Brew Crew already have a vaunted top three of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta and prospects Aaron Ashby and Ethan Small are at or nearing the big leagues. Might Milwaukee plug one of the younger arms into the rotation and flip a veteran back-end starter for offensive help?

Adalberto Mondesi, Royals 3B/SS

Mondesi’s an enigmatic player. He brings an enviable combination of power and speed and has enough athleticism to play a competent or better shortstop. He also has among the worst strikeout and walk numbers of any regular position player in MLB. Perhaps most alarming, he’s dealt with enough injury issues in recent years that Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore expressed some doubt about his ability to play more than 100 games per season regularly.

Nicky Lopez played well enough to supplant Mondesi at shortstop last year. Bobby Witt Jr. will probably take that position early in 2022, pushing Lopez somewhere else on the dirt. Whit Merrifield is still around as a second base option. Kansas City might have enough infield depth to explore a Mondesi trade, although it’d be a bit of a sell-low on a player with obvious physical gifts who’s controllable through 2023. He’s projected for a $3.2MM salary.

Kyle Hendricks, Cubs SP

Hendricks is guaranteed $29.5MM through the next two seasons, with a vesting option that could keep him in Chicago through 2024. The Cubs have moved most of their core players dating back to last offseason, but Hendricks remains on the North Side. That might be attributable to some uncharacteristic struggles, as the righty’s coming off a career-worst 4.77 ERA with unimpressive peripherals.

Hendricks has never struck batters out or fared exceptionally well in the eyes of ERA estimators, though. Until last season, his actual run prevention handily outperformed metrics like FIP and SIERA as he thrived on exceptional command. He’ll probably bounce back, even if he may never recapture his Cy Young-caliber, 2.13 ERA form from 2016. With the amount of teams on the hunt for starting pitching, there’d no doubt still be demand if the Cubs made Hendricks available. Will they? Perhaps, since they’re not likely to compete in 2022. Yet their early-offseason activity — signing Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman, claiming Wade Miley — has suggested they may not be keen to punt next season entirely.

Trey Mancini, Orioles 1B

The Orioles aren’t going to compete in 2022, and Mancini is ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. Most players in his situation would be very straightforward trade candidates, but the first baseman is a fan favorite and reported clubhouse leader who made an inspiring return to the diamond last year after missing the 2020 campaign battling colon cancer.

That Mancini returned to play in 147 games after facing that kind of life obstacle is a remarkable achievement. It’s undeniable, though, that his production slipped relative to his excellent 2019 campaign. Mancini’s .255/.326/.432 line was only marginally above average, and he played exclusively first base and designated hitter. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him bounce back into a middle-of-the-order presence as he gets further away from beating cancer, but demand for his services might be limited until his production rebounds. If that’s the case, it’s probably not worth it for the O’s to trade him away this offseason. He’s projected for a $7.9MM salary, but Balitmore’s 2022 payroll ledger is wide open.

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2022 Post-Lockout Trade Market Arizona Diamondbacks Baltimore Orioles Chicago Cubs Cleveland Guardians Colorado Rockies Kansas City Royals MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins Milwaukee Brewers Minnesota Twins Newsstand Oakland Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Washington Nationals Adalberto Mondesi Adrian Houser Alejandro Kirk Amed Rosario Anthony Santander Austin Meadows Chris Paddack Chris Stratton Cole Sulser Danny Jansen Elieser Hernandez Eric Lauer Garrett Cooper Isiah Kiner-Falefa John Means Josh Bell Kyle Hendricks Manuel Margot Max Kepler Merrill Kelly Mitch Garver Raimel Tapia Ryan Jeffers Ryan Yarbrough Tony Kemp Trey Mancini Zach Plesac

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