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Upcoming Club Option Decisions: AL Central

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Last week, MLBTR took an early look at offseason option decisions facing teams in the National League. We’re continuing our division by division series moving through the Junior Circuit. Next up, the AL Central, where only three of five teams have players with contracts that contain 2024 options.

Previous posts: NL East, NL Central, NL West, AL East

Chicago White Sox

Lynn signed a $38MM extension midway through the 2021 season. He was en route to a third-place Cy Young finish at the time but has seen his results go backwards over the past two years. He still managed a solid 3.99 ERA through 121 2/3 innings last season, but this year has been far tougher. The 36-year-old has been tagged for a personal-worst 6.55 ERA in his first 12 starts.

The righty is striking out a quarter of opponents against a manageable 8.6% walk rate. His results on batted balls have been disastrous, though. He’s surrendering a .335 batting average on balls in play and has already given up 15 home runs, tied for third-most in the majors. There’s probably some amount of misfortune there, but Lynn’s a fly-ball pitcher who is giving up a lot of hard contact while pitching in a homer-friendly home park. It’s been a rough couple months and nowhere near the level the Sox would need to consider an option with a net $17MM decision.

Hendriks’ free agent deal contained a unique fourth year in which the option price and the buyout were valued the same. That was mostly an accounting measure designed to front-load the Sox’s luxury tax hit to afford more CBT breathing room in 2024. The only material difference at this point is that buying Hendriks out would allow the Sox to pay him in installments over a 10-year period as opposed to a $15MM salary to be disbursed in during the ’24 season.

There’s practically no question the White Sox are going to exercise this. Hendriks came back from a non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma diagnosis to return to pitching at the major league level within a matter of months. He’s one of the best relievers in the game when at his peak.

Anderson’s option call is almost as obvious as the Hendriks decision. The 29-year-old is typically one of the game’s best-hitting shortstops, an annual threat to bat over .300 with plus baserunning and typically solid defense. This hasn’t been a standard Anderson season. He’s off to a modest .273/.313/.320 start and is without a home run in 42 games. He missed a few weeks with a left knee sprain, and defensive metrics have soured on his glovework.

Rough couple months aside, a $13MM price point is still strong value for a player of Anderson’s caliber. He hit .318/.347/.473 between 2019-22 and earned a pair of All-Star nods. Next year’s free agent shortstop class is also incredibly thin, meaning there aren’t likely to be many alternatives available. Even if 2019-22 proves to be Anderson’s peak, a one-year, net $13MM decision is still an easy call for the team.

The White Sox signed Clevinger to a $12MM free agent deal over the winter. They were hoping to buy low on a return to form for the righty as he further distanced himself from 2020 Tommy John surgery. It hasn’t really materialized, as Clevinger’s performance in Chicago isn’t far off last year’s work in San Diego.

Through 10 starts, the 32-year-old has a 4.13 ERA in 52 1/3 innings. He’s posted slightly below-average strikeout and grounder rates while walking 10% of opposing hitters. This year’s 9.1% swinging-strike rate is a career low. He’s posting competent fifth starter results, but it’s looking increasingly unlikely he’ll recapture the upper mid-rotation upside of his Cleveland days.

It’s an $8MM decision on the option after accounting for the buyout. That’s a reasonable price point for a back-of-the-rotation arm. The likes of Zach Davies, Johnny Cueto and Kyle Gibson all landed between $5MM and $10MM last offseason, while Jordan Lyles secured a two-year, $17MM pact. Clevinger looks likely to land in that area. Mutual options are almost never exercised by both sides, so odds are Clevinger is headed back to free agency. His next contract just might land around there regardless.

  • Joe Kelly: $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout)

Kelly has had a confounding two seasons in Chicago. Signed to a two-year, $17MM deal coming out of the lockout, he’s posted rough run prevention marks despite excellent peripherals. Kelly carries a 5.43 ERA through 54 2/3 innings since the start of 2022. That’s belied by elite strikeout (32.1%) and ground-ball (62.7%) numbers. Huge walk totals at least partially explained his 2022 struggles, but Kelly has a 4.08 ERA this season despite only walking two of the 70 batters he’s faced.

The right-hander has been an enigmatic player throughout his career. Kelly has always had wipeout stuff and flashed the ability to be an impact high-leverage arm at times. Yet he’s often paired that high-octane arsenal with control that comes and goes. It’s unlikely Kelly sustains anything close to his current 2.9% walk rate over a full season. This is probably headed towards a buyout.

Detroit Tigers

This technically qualifies as an option decision on Cabrera. There’s no suspense about the result, of course. The future Hall of Famer will be bought out as the Tigers finally wrap up a $248MM extension that proved very ill-advised. Cabrera has already declared 2023 to be his likely final season. He’ll leave the sport as one of the greatest hitters ever, but it remains to be seen whether the Tigers will carry him on the roster all year. He’s hitting .202/.283/.245 in 26 games.

Minnesota Twins

Polanco would vest next year’s option with 550 plate appearances if he passed a postseason physical. He’s very unlikely to meet the playing time threshold. Polanco has only 118 trips to the dish more than a third of the way through the season. He’s had a pair of injured list stints already, missing time due both to right knee and left hamstring concerns. He’d need to average more than 4.2 plate appearances per game the rest of the way.

That’ll probably be a moot point, as the Twins seem likely to welcome him back regardless. It’s a $9.5MM decision for a middle infielder who’s one of the team’s better hitters. The switch-hitting Polanco posted a .235/.346/.405 line last season and is at a .268/.305/.482 pace in 27 games this year. Dating back to 2018, Polanco is a .272/.337/.456 hitter in nearly 2500 plate appearances. The Twins would have another club option (this time valued at $12MM) for 2025 if they keep him around, only adding to the appeal.

Kepler’s early-career extension looked like it’d be a coup when he connected on 36 home runs in 2019. The former top prospect seemed to be taking his long-awaited step forward. He hasn’t built on it, though, as he posted roughly league average numbers each season from 2020-22.

Even average production would be a welcome departure from Kepler’s showing thus far in ’23. The left-handed-hitting outfielder is off to a brutal .192/.264/.376 start in 140 plate appearances. The shift ban hasn’t resulted in any kind of improvement in his perennially low ball in play numbers. He’s sporting a career-worst .196 BABIP. His strikeouts are up to 20.7% and he’s walking at a career-worst 7.1% clip.

Kepler is an elite defensive right fielder and has shown better offensive form in prior seasons. A $9MM call isn’t out of the question, but he’ll obviously need to markedly improve upon his current pace. Minnesota has a number of controllable corner outfielders who’ve reached the MLB level (Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner among them). Perhaps it’s time for a change of scenery for Kepler, who seems to have stalled out in the Twin Cities.

Twins Transfer Nick Gordon To 60-Day Injured List

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The Twins announced this morning they’ve transferred utilityman Nick Gordon from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list. The move clears a spot on the 40-man roster for Royce Lewis, who has been reinstated from the 60-day IL. Minnesota also confirmed they’ve activated Max Kepler from the 10-day IL and optioned both Matt Wallner and Kyle Garlick to Triple-A St. Paul to clear active roster space.

Gordon fractured his right shin a little less than two weeks ago. The left-handed hitter fouled a ball off his leg during a loss to the Dodgers. Minnesota hasn’t provided specifics on the 27-year-old’s recovery timetable, but it’s now official he’s in for a lengthy absence. The transfer backdates to May 19, the date of Gordon’s initial IL placement. Nevertheless, it ensures he won’t be able to return until the third week of July at the earliest.

It has been a tough season for the former fifth overall pick. Gordon is hitting .176/.185/.319 over 34 games. Even before the leg injury, it had marked a disappointing follow-up to a solid .272/.316/.427 showing over a career-high 443 plate appearances last year.

Lewis officially returns one year to the day since his last MLB action. The former first overall pick tore the ACL in his right knee for the second time in as many seasons last May. The injuries have kept him to just 12 big league games to date, but the 23-year-old certainly still has time to emerge as a key contributor for Minnesota.

Dan Hayes of the Athletic chatted with Lewis and his mother Cindy about the physical and mental challenges associated with near-consecutive year-long rehab processes. Lewis has shown no signs of rust on a rehab stint with St. Paul, hitting .333/.371/.727 with four homers in 35 trips to the plate. He’s expected to log a decent amount of action on the left side of the infield. Carlos Correa is day-to-day with plantar fasciitis, while third baseman José Miranda struggled enough that the Twins optioned him a few weeks ago. Kyle Farmer has taken the bulk of third base reps since Miranda’s demotion.

Twins To Activate Royce Lewis, Max Kepler From Injured List On Monday

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Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman (Twitter link) and other reporters that the club will activate Max Kepler and Royce Lewis from the injured list prior to Monday’s game with the Astros.  Kepler has been on the 10-day IL, while Lewis will make his season debut after spending all of 2023 on the 60-day IL.  Outfielders Kyle Garlick and Matt Wallner have both already been optioned to Triple-A to create roster space.

It was just short of a year ago that Lewis went onto the 10-day IL with what appeared to be a bone bruise in his right knee, but the worst-case scenario occurred when Lewis needed to undergo surgery to fix a torn ACL.  It was the second ACL surgery in as many years for Lewis, which wiped out his entire 2021 season.  Due to his injuries and the canceled 2020 minor league season, Lewis has only played in 56 total games (12 in the majors, 44 in the minors) since the end of the 2019 minor league season.

In the wake of two major knee surgeries, it is hard to know exactly what to expect from Lewis (the first overall pick of the 2017 draft) as he again restarts his career.  However, he hit .300/.317/.550 in his only 41 career MLB plate appearances, and he has a 1.088 OPS over 43 PA in the minors this year, and Lewis has apparently had little to no issue running or pivoting, so his knee appears to be holding up.

Since Lewis has gotten an equal amount of time at third base and shortstop in the minors this year, it stands to reason that he’ll get a look at third base in the big leagues, as the hot corner has been a bit of a question mark.  Jose Miranda’s struggles resulted in a demotion to the minors, and while the utilityman collective of Kyle Farmer, Willi Castro, and Donovan Solano have held the fort, the Twins surely want to see what Lewis can bring to the table.  Carlos Correa is naturally the starter at shortstop, though Lewis might get some time at short as well depending on how Minnesota manages Correa’s plantar fasciitis (which has yet to send Correa to the IL).

Though such notables as Jorge Polanco, Kenta Maeda, Nick Gordon remain sidelined, the Twins are slowly inching closer to full health after dealing with a plethora of injuries all season along.  Kepler missed just over two weeks with a hamstring strain, which came after a previous IL stint earlier this season due to right patellar tendinitis.  Kepler has a modest .212/.298/.444 slash line through 114 PA, but he is looking to boost that production now that his injuries are hopefully behind him.  Since Minnesota holds a $10MM club option on Kepler for the 2024 season, the outfielder is looking for a big year to either convince the Twins to exercise that option, or to impress suitors on the free agent market.

Twins Place Max Kepler On 10-Day IL

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The Twins announced they’ve placed outfielder Max Kepler on the 10-day IL with a hamstring strain. In his place, Trevor Larnach has been recalled.

It doesn’t sound like an overly serious issue for Kepler, and manager Rocco Baldelli seemed to indicate there’d be a good chance he’d be activated after the minimum number of days expired.

“It was w/ a cramp. He got an MRI & MRI seems OK. But he’s still pretty tight, & we don’t think he’s going to be able to play for a handful of days. If you can’t play for a handful of days … we’re going to IL him & get someone in here who can go,” Baldelli told reporters, including Dan Hayes of the Athletic.

Kepler’s posted a .212/.298/444 line this season with six home runs while manning right field. Larnach’s return is effectively a straight swap on the roster. He’s hit three home runs and posted a .221/.331/.356 line across 124 plate appearances this year, and should slot in as the team’s everyday right fielder with Kepler out.

IL Activations: Hughes, Nootbaar, Kepler, Lorenzen

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Catching up on notable players returning from the injured list today…

LATEST MOVES

  • The Cubs activated left-hander Brandon Hughes from the 15-day IL, and outfielder Nelson Velazquez was optioned to Triple-A to create roster space.  Hughes was bothered by inflammation in his left knee during Spring Training, so Chicago placed him on the IL prior to Opening Day so Hughes could recover and then complete his ramp-up progress.  In an impressive rookie season, Hughes posted a 3.12 ERA and an above-average 28.3% strikeout rate (albeit with a subpar walk rate) over 57 2/3 innings out of the Cubs’ bullpen.

EARLIER TODAY

  • The Cardinals activated Lars Nootbaar from the 10-day IL, and sent Juan Yepez to Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Nootbaar was in the St. Louis lineup for the first time since Opening Day, when he injured his left thumb diving into a base.  While the Cardinals’ outfield depth chart might prevent Nootbaar from true everyday duty, he is still expected to get a lot of playing time as a left-handed hitter capable of playing all three outfield spots.  Jordan Walker’s emergence has only added to a crowded outfield picture that also includes Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill, Alec Burleson, Dylan Carlson, Yepez, and utilityman Brendan Donovan.
  • The Twins activated outfielder Max Kepler from the 10-day IL, as Kepler returned after missing the minimum 10 days while recovering from right patellar tendinitis.  Minnesota optioned outfielder Matt Wallner to Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Kepler’s return will bring a bit of relief for the injury-plagued Twins, and he’ll look for something of a reset to his season after playing in only four games prior to his IL stint.  Kepler is entering the final guaranteed year of his contract, and will be a free agent this winter unless the Twins exercise a $10MM club option for 2024.
  • Michael Lorenzen made his first start of the season today, as the Tigers activated the right-hander from the 15-day IL.  Unsurprisingly, Lorenzen showed some rust, allowing six earned runs over four innings in what ended up being a 7-6 comeback win for Detroit over San Francisco.  A left groin strain has kept Lorenzen on the shelf, but going forward, he is expected to contribute in the Tigers’ rotation after signing a one-year, $8.5MM free agent deal during the offseason.  Along with activating Lorenzen, Detroit also called up southpaw Tyler Holton from Triple-A, and sent righty Garrett Hill and infielder Ryan Kreidler to Triple-A.

Twins Place Max Kepler On 10-Day Injured List

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The Twins have placed outfielder Max Kepler on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to April 5), with outfielder Matt Wallner called up from Triple-A to take Kepler’s spot on the active roster.  Kepler is suffering from right patellar tendinitis, and hasn’t played in any of Minnesota’s last three games after being forced out of Monday’s contest while running the bases.

It’s a disappointing setback for Kepler, especially after a big Spring Training raised some expectations that a nice season could be on the horizon.  Kepler hit only .219/.312/.382 over 936 plate appearances (96 wRC+) in 2021-22, but with the new rules limiting defensive shifts, there was a sense that Kepler’s extreme pull-hitting tendencies might result in more batted balls becoming hits rather than outs.  Obviously there’s still plenty of time left in the 2023 season for Kepler to produce, but he’ll first have to get his knee back to full health.

There is some added incentive for Kepler since 2023 is the last guaranteed season of the five-year, $35MM extension he signed with Minnesota prior to the 2019 season.  Kepler is earning $8.5MM this season and the Twins hold a $1MM buyout of a $10MM club option on the outfielder’s services for 2024.  Since the Twins discussed Kepler in trade talks this offseason and the team has a number of young outfielders on the way up, it might take a real offensive breakout for Kepler to keep himself in the Twins’ plans going forward.

Wallner is one of those other outfielders looking for a shot at the MLB level, and the 25-year-old made his big league debut with 18 games for Minnesota last season.  The 39th overall pick of the 2019 draft, Wallner is something of a classic three-true-outcomes slugger, with lots of power (51 homers, .511 slugging percentage), strikeouts (30.32 K%), and free passes (12.75% walk rate) over his 1184 career PA in the minors.

Heading into Spring Training with an apparent surplus of outfield talent, the Twins now have Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, and Gilberto Celestino all on the IL, and Byron Buxton has been limited to DH duty while the club has been easing him back into action after knee surgery.  Joey Gallo also left yesterday’s game due to soreness in his right side, though manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman) that Gallo is just day-to-day, as “[MRI] results were something we were hoping for.”  Michael A. Taylor will remain the starting center fielder with Trevor Larnach in everyday duty in one of the other corner spots, and the Twins will now turn to Wallner, Willie Castro, or Nick Gordon to fill in for Kepler.

Twins Appear Unlikely To Trade Max Kepler

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Max Kepler has been one of the game’s more frequently mentioned trade candidates over the past month or so. The signing of Joey Gallo added another left-handed bat to a Twins outfield that was already very deep in that regard. Kepler, as the oldest and most expensive of Minnesota’s in-house lefty outfielders, seemed the likeliest player to move if the front office wanted to deal from that surplus to address anywhere else on the roster.

While the German-born outfielder drew reported interest from the Marlins and Yankees this offseason, the Twins obviously haven’t found a deal they consider satisfactory. Dan Hayes of the Athletic wrote this morning Minnesota hasn’t found the level of interest in Kepler they’re seeking and now seem likely to keep him into the season. Assuming that’s the case for the entirety of Minnesota’s outfielders, they’ll carry a group of Kepler, Gallo, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon and Matt Wallner as left-handed options, with center fielders Byron Buxton, Michael A. Taylor and Gilberto Celestino all hitting from the right side.

Manager Rocco Baldelli would be able to get some of those players into the mix at non-outfield positions, of course. The Twins don’t have a set designated hitter, leaving room to rotate a number of options as quasi-rest days. Gordon can play the infield (mostly at second base), while Gallo and Kirilloff each have plenty of first base experience.

Kirilloff is returning from a second straight season-ending wrist surgery. Buxton has a lengthy injury history and has only once reached 100 MLB games in a season, no doubt playing into Minnesota’s recent acquisition of Taylor. Celestino, Wallner, Kirilloff and Larnach each have options remaining and can be sent to the minors — which seems a stronger possibility for the first two than for either of Kirilloff or Larnach.

There’s enough flexibility that Minnesota doesn’t have to deal an outfielder simply to free up playing time. As Hayes points out, however, not making a trade could be seen as missing out on an opportunity to balance the roster in other areas. As things stand, the Twins seem likely to deploy Gallo, Buxton and Kepler as their primary outfield, with Kirilloff at first base and Gordon and/or Larnach manning DH.

Hayes writes that Gallo has expressed a willingness to move back to first base if the club desires, though a key portion of the 29-year-old’s overall value is derived from his Gold Glove-caliber corner outfield work. He hasn’t started an MLB game at first base since 2018, with teams preferring to take advantage of his athleticism and arm strength on the outfield grass.

If everyone’s healthy, Minnesota should have an elite defensive outfield. Buxton and Taylor are two of the sport’s best defenders. Kepler and Gallo are high-end corner outfielders who can cover center if needed. Kepler’s glovework had been one of the key selling points in his trade candidacy, as a lackluster center field market has left a few other clubs rolling the dice on inexperienced options at the position. The Red Sox signed Adam Duvall, who’s 34 and has started 68 career games in center, to man the position. Miami is moving Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center after acquiring Luis Arraez to play second base.

To the extent other teams are interested in Kepler as a possible center field fit, it doesn’t appear they’re willing to meet the Twins’ asking price. Minnesota will plug him back into right field and hope he can more closely approximate his .252/.336/.519 showing from 2019 than the roughly average .220/.314/.392 mark he’s managed over the past three seasons.

Kepler has strong plate discipline and contact skills but consistently runs one of the league’s worst averages on balls in play. A lack of line drives suggests that’s not entirely poor fortune, though he has also seen plenty of overshifts that’ll no longer be permissible given the forthcoming rule changes. Kepler is playing this season on an $8.5MM salary. He’s due at least a $1MM buyout on a $10MM club option for the 2024 campaign.

Another player who could factor into the outfield mix at some point is Royce Lewis. He won’t be available at the start of the season after tearing the ACL in his right knee last June. It was the second straight year he’d torn the ligament. The former first overall pick is expected to be ready at some point midseason. The re-signing of Carlos Correa means Lewis isn’t likely to get much shortstop run, barring a Correa injury.

Lewis recently informed reporters he started swinging again three weeks ago and has progressed to straight-line running (link via Megan Ryan of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune). While there’s no present path to everyday reps at one position for the 23-year-old, he noted president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine each stressed his value to the organization after they retained Correa. Lewis spoke about his excitement for the star shortstop’s return and expressed a willingness to play anywhere on the infield or outfield depending on the team’s needs once he’s healthy.

Yankees Have Shown Interest In David Peralta

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The Yankees have been in contact with free agent outfielder David Peralta this offseason, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. It isn’t clear whether talks are ongoing, as Heyman suggests the Yankees look likelier to roll with their in-house options in left field.

That position has been a prominent talking point among the fanbase throughout the offseason. That’s due to the two-year struggles of Aaron Hicks, who’s coming off a .216/.330/.313 showing through 453 plate appearances. That marked an improvement over his .194/.294/.333 line during an injury-riddled 2021 season but was still below average.

Given the stiff competition the Yankees are facing in the AL East, one could certainly argue for general manager Brian Cashman and his staff to seek out an upgrade. They’ve been tied to an array of left field possibilities. That includes the top remaining free agent, Jurickson Profar, and trade candidates like Bryan Reynolds and Max Kepler. Pittsburgh has reportedly set a massive asking price in talks regarding Reynolds. Minnesota dealing Kepler this offseason still seems possible, though Heyman writes there isn’t any current traction between the Yankees and Twins on that front.

Peralta’s part of a veteran fallback contingent for teams looking to augment their corner outfield but unwilling to meet Profar’s asking price. The longtime Diamondback had a great 2018 season in which he connected on 30 homers, but he’s posted roughly average offensive numbers in the four years since then. The left-handed batter owns a .266/.329/.425 mark since the start of the 2019 season. That includes a .251/.316/.415 showing over 490 trips between Arizona and the Rays last year.

While the bottom line numbers for the nine-year MLB veteran didn’t much change, the shape of his production did. Peralta significantly cut back on his ground balls last season, putting the ball on the dirt 36.3% of the time after hovering around 50% in every previous season of his career. The fly-ball oriented approach looked to be resulting in better power output earlier in the season, as Peralta carried a .460 slugging mark through 87 games in Arizona. Things cratered after he was dealt to the Rays, as he didn’t collect a single longball and stumbled to a .255/.317/.335 slash over 180 plate appearances with Tampa Bay.

Peralta’s a low-cost veteran option during his first trip to free agency. Yet even a modest deal might prove too costly for the Yankees given their reported spending limit. Heyman wrote last week the club doesn’t want to surpass the $293MM luxury tax mark that’d subject them to the highest penalization level on spending. Roster Resource calculates their CBT number around $292.3MM at the moment. Virtually any acquisition would likely push the Yankees past that threshold.

If the Yankees do stick with their internal left field options, the competition would figure to come down to Hicks and youngster Oswaldo Cabrera. The latter hit .247/.312/.429 in 44 games as a rookie, outperforming Hicks in 2022. Nevertheless, Cashman suggested last weekend in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM the veteran could have the upper hand in a camp battle (h/t to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). While Cashman called the situation “fluid,” he noted he expects “(Hicks) will be the guy that emerges, because he’s still really talented and everything’s there.“

Marlins, Twins Have Discussed Trade Possibilities Involving Pablo Lopez, Max Kepler

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The Marlins and Twins have discussed trade scenarios involving Miami starter Pablo López, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman reports that Minnesota outfielder Max Kepler and infielder Luis Arraez were among the names who’d come up in those discussions but adds the Twins aren’t interested in parting with Arraez.

Minnesota’s interest in López isn’t a new development. Ted Schwerzler of Twins Daily first reported in mid-December the Twins were in touch with the Fish about López. Obviously, nothing has yet come together and Heyman’s report doesn’t suggest there’s anything particularly close between the two clubs.

López, 27 in March, has been a frequent target in trade rumors for well over a year. The right-hander has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last three seasons. He hasn’t walked more than 7.5% of batters faced in any of those campaigns and has posted at least a 23.6% strikeout rate in all three seasons. López sits in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball and owns one of the game’s better changeups. He misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average clip and generally manages solid results against right and left-handed hitters alike.

That kind of consistent mid-rotation production has piqued the interest of a number of contenders but Miami has held onto López so far. That’s in spite of a reported willingness to deal from their stable of quality starting pitchers to address a lackluster lineup. While the Venezuelan-born righty has been the most frequently mentioned trade candidate in the Miami rotation, the Fish are reportedly open to offers on any of Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Jesús Luzardo as well.

That latter trio of pitchers all come with longer windows of club control and high-octane stuff. None has the consistent multi-year track record López has established, though, making him an ideal fit for a team firmly in win-now mode and looking to upgrade its starting five. López is in his second season of arbitration eligibility. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $5.6MM salary next season; he’ll earn a raise on that during his final trip through the process before reaching free agency for the first time after 2024.

The Twins don’t strictly need a starter, though there’s enough uncertainty in their group they could accommodate another acquisition. That’s particularly true for a pitcher of López’s caliber, as he’d arguably step in as their best arm on staff. Minnesota is set to open the 2023 season with a top five of Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober and Kenta Maeda. That group was hit hard by injuries last year, with Ryan leading the way at 147 innings. Mahle, Gray and Ober each had multiple injured list stints, including a two and a half month absence for Ober thanks to a groin strain. Maeda missed the whole season recovering from September 2021 Tommy John surgery.

There’s a decent amount of upside. Young arms like Simeon Woods Richardson, Louie Varland and Josh Winder have potential as depth options and Chris Paddack could return in the season’s second half from last May’s Tommy John procedure. Yet it’s equally easy to see the risk associated with the group considering their collective injury histories. Bringing in another quality starter would be a nice boost to a Minnesota club looking to build off their surprising new agreement with Carlos Correa and could push one or two of the touted young arms into a bullpen that seems the roster’s biggest question mark.

Minnesota has plenty of high-level outfield depth from which they could deal to bolster the pitching. They’re particularly deep in left-handed hitters, with Kepler, Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner all factoring into the mix around star center fielder Byron Buxton. Kepler is the only member of the group who isn’t still in his pre-arbitration seasons. That has made him the most frequently speculated upon trade candidate but also arguably the least desirable target of the group for other clubs.

Like López, Kepler comes with two remaining seasons of club control. He’ll make $8.5MM this year and is guaranteed at least a $1MM buyout on a $10MM club option for 2024. He turns 30 in February and is headed into his ninth big league season.

Kepler looked to have broken out in 2019, when he connected on 36 home runs and posted a .252/.336/.519 line through 596 trips to the plate. He’s always had quality contact skills and plate discipline, and the seeming power spike elevated his offensive profile enough he secured some down-ballot MVP votes that year. In retrospect, that season seems an anomaly at least partially attributable to the extremely lively ball the league used. Kepler has been fine but unspectacular in the three years since then, hitting .220/.314/.392 in over 1100 plate appearances.

That includes a .227/.318/.348 line with just nine homers last season. His walk and strikeout rates remained excellent but he posted the worst power numbers of his career. Kepler also consistently runs very low batting averages on balls in play. That’s in part thanks to a pull-happy, grounder-heavy offensive profile that has made him susceptible to overshifts. The forthcoming limitations on defensive positioning could lead to a few more base knocks but isn’t likely to help him rediscover his power stroke.

Even with middling offense, Kepler is a valuable player. He’s an elite defensive right fielder who has also held his own in more than 1100 career innings in center field. Buxton, arguably the sport’s best defensive outfielder when healthy, relegates Kepler to the corner in Minnesota. Yet he’d be a viable candidate for everyday center field work on another club. That’s the case for Miami, where younger players like JJ Bleday, Bryan De La Cruz and Jesús Sánchez rotated through center field work in 2022. Each of them is better suited for a corner and has a limited offensive track record at the MLB level. Miami hasn’t addressed center field this winter, currently leaving that trio as an imperfect solution to take up-the-middle reps alongside Avisaíl García and perhaps Jorge Soler in the corners.

Kepler is a sensible trade target for the Marlins, particularly given their reported preference for higher-contact bats. It’s clear, however, that he alone wouldn’t convince general manager Kim Ng and her staff to part with López. An upper mid-rotation starter is going to hold more appeal than an outfielder coming off three roughly average offensive seasons, even one as defensively gifted as Kepler. That’s true even before considering López is a few years younger and will make a bit less over the next two seasons than Kepler will. Including Kepler in a deal involving López could make sense for both sides, but the Twins would have to offer additional young talent to convince Miami to pull the trigger.

Arraez, however, is apparently a bridge too far for Minnesota’s liking. The reigning AL batting champion would certainly fit Miami’s desire for a high-contact hitter and he’s coming off a .316/.375/.420 line over 603 trips to the plate. He’s controllable for three more seasons and projected for a $5MM arbitration salary. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported last month the Twins had given some consideration to making Arraez available in a deal that brought back a “top-tier starting pitcher” who was controllable beyond next season.

One could argue whether López fits that description, but it doesn’t seem the Twins feel he’s at the level that’d inspire them to part with one of their best hitters. Arraez is presently penciled in as Minnesota’s primary first baseman, though he’ll also work as a designated hitter and spell Jorge Polanco and José Miranda at second and third base, respectively.

Twins’ Outfield Depth Gives Front Office Numerous Trade Possibilities

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The Twins entered the offseason with ample payroll room but have mostly stuck to smaller-scale additions. Kyle Farmer was brought in from the Reds to act as shortstop insurance in the event Carlos Correa departed. Christian Vázquez inked a three-year free agent deal to address the catcher situation the front office had prioritized, while Joey Gallo signed a one-year deal two weeks ago.

That latter move added another left-handed bat to what had already been a fairly crowded outfield mix. Even with Mark Contreras designated for assignment in a corresponding move, the Twins have nine listed outfielders on their 40-man roster. Six of them hit left-handed, which makes it seem likely they’ll subtract at least one from the group in a deal that nets help elsewhere on the roster.

Most of the attention will be focused on right fielder Max Kepler. He’s the most straightforward trade candidate in the outfield and has drawn some interest earlier in the offseason. Kepler is the most expensive of the group, due at least $9.5MM through the end of next season on the contract extension he signed back in 2019. Controllable via club option through 2024, he has the least amount of contractual control of anyone in the group.

That could all make the 29-year-old Kepler the most likely Twins outfielder to be dealt, but it’s also going to tamp down the appeal he’ll have on the trade market. He’s coming off a .227/.318/.348 line with just nine home runs through 446 plate appearances, his second straight season hitting slightly worse than league average. Kepler’s 36-homer showing from 2019 looks like an outlier. His plus defense in right field, quality plate discipline and perhaps a forthcoming benefit from the limitations on shifting mean he should still have some trade value on his contract, but Minnesota’s not likely to recoup an overwhelming return.

If the offers on Kepler aren’t especially persuasive, could president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, GM Thad Levine and their staff turn attention elsewhere? Minnesota has a number of younger outfielders who could instead be made available, particularly if the deal nets them help at shortstop and/or in higher-leverage relief innings.

  • Nick Gordon (controllable through 2027, likely eligible for arbitration after 2023)

Gordon might be the most appealing of the bunch. A former top five draftee and highly-regarded prospect, his status dipped from 2018-21. Gordon’s bat had seemed to stall out in the upper minors and his middle infield defense wasn’t exceptional enough to overcome it. It seemed as if he could find himself on the roster bubble after a tough rookie season in 2021, but Gordon was a valuable utility option for Minnesota last year. He hit .272/.316/.427 with nine homers in 443 plate appearances. Defensive metrics didn’t love his work up the middle but considered him a roughly average left fielder.

The 27-year-old isn’t entirely without question marks. He has a very aggressive offensive approach that consistently leads to modest walk totals. Some clubs figure to have concerns about how often he’ll maintain a suitable on-base percentage. Yet he’s also shown some defensive flexibility and hit very well when holding the platoon advantage. Last season, Gordon posted a .289/.329/.465 line against right-handed pitching and his 41.5% hard hit rate against northpaws ranked 12th among 299 hitters with 200+ plate appearances. He’s exhausted his minor league option years, meaning he has to stick on the big league roster.

  • Trevor Larnach (controllable through 2027, eligible for arbitration after 2024)

Larnach is also a former first-round pick who was a top minor league talent for a number of seasons. He’s shown solid power and plate discipline in the minors but the production has been more intermittent against big league pitching. The Oregon State product is a .226/.316/.371 hitter in 130 MLB games the past two years. Larnach has walked at a robust 10.2% clip while making plenty of hard contact. He’s offset those promising numbers with a few more grounders than ideal and, more importantly, a strikeout rate pushing 34%.

While he doesn’t have much defensive versatility, Larnach is a quality defender in the corner outfield. He’ll be 26 in February and is still two seasons from qualifying for arbitration. He probably hasn’t done enough to cement himself as an everyday player in the crowded Minnesota outfield but has shown enough promise to believe he could be a quality regular if he can even modestly improve his contact rate. Larnach’s 2022 season ended in June after he underwent surgery to repair a strain in his core muscle. He still has a pair of minor league options remaining, so it’s possible he heads back to Triple-A St. Paul if he sticks in Minnesota.

  • Alex Kirilloff (controllable through 2027, likely eligible for arbitration after 2023)

Another former first-round draftee and top prospect, Kirilloff hasn’t yet found much MLB success. He’s a .251/.295/.398 hitter in 104 MLB games, a disappointing start for a player whose bat is his carrying tool. It’s obvious Kirilloff’s capable of more if he can stay healthy, though, considering he’s had each of the past two seasons cut short by right wrist issues that necessitated surgery.

Kirilloff is still just 25 and mashed with St. Paul in 2022, posting a .359/.465/.641 line with ten homers in 35 games. That brought his career minor league slash line up to .328/.378/.519 in parts of five seasons. The Minnesota front office may have no interest in selling low on Kirilloff given that kind of offensive upside, but other clubs figure to at least inquire whether they can buy low given his injury issues. He has one option season left.

Wallner is the least established of the group. The former Southern Mississippi star just made it onto the MLB roster as a September call-up. He played 18 games down the stretch. Wallner, who draws praise from prospect evaluators for his power potential, otherwise split the season between Double-A Wichita and St. Paul. He hit .277/.412/.542 with 32 home runs in 571 plate appearances between the top two minor league levels. Wallner just turned 25 and still has all three options remaining.

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