Nolan Arenado

Nolan Arenado Suffers Hand Injury

By Connor Byrne | August 13, 2017 at 3:32pm CDT

3:32pm: Good news for the Rockies: X-rays came back negative on Arenado, who has a left hand contusion, tweets Saunders.

2:34pm: Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado left the team’s game Sunday in Miami in “considerable pain” after taking a pitch off the left hand from Marlins starter Vance Worley, according to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. The extent of the injury is unknown at the moment, but it’s the second scare in as many days involving a National League superstar. Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper suffered a knee injury on Saturday, leading to a placement on the disabled list, though there’s hope that he’ll be back within a few weeks.

Arenado, like Harper, is an indispensable member of his team. He’s also the face of a Colorado club that owns a 65-51 record, giving it a 4.5-game lead on a wild-card spot. The Rockies appear bound for the playoffs for the first time since 2009, which is thanks in no small part to Arenado. The 26-year-old has been among the majors’ top players since his breakout campaign, 2014, and has continued his standout play this season. Thus far, Arenado has batted a robust .311/.361/.585 with 26 home runs and a major league-best 100 runs batted in across 497 plate appearances. He’s again delivering incredible value at the hot corner, too, with 17 defensive runs saved and a 6.5 Ultimate Zone Rating. Arenado’s two-way excellence has led to a 3.9 fWAR, which ranks 11th among NL position players.

After Arenado exited Sunday, the Rockies brought shortstop Trevor Story off the bench to take his place. Third base options on their roster include the just-promoted Ryan McMahon, Pat Valaika and Alexi Amarista.

Quick Hits: Gardenhire, Afterman, Loria, Arenado

By Jeff Todd | April 13, 2017 at 10:13am CDT

Diamondbacks bench coach Ron Gardenhire is slated to undergo surgery for prostate cancer next Tuesday, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes in an update on the former Twins skipper. As Nightengale writes, the bad news came at a particularly disappointing time for Gardenhire, given that he was returning from a layoff after leaving Minnesota. But he’s tackling the condition with typical form, as Nightengale writes. “Cancer is a big word, you know, but it’s been pretty special having so many people reach out,” says Gardenhire, who adds that he “can’t wait to sit in that dugout again.”

Here’s more from around the game:

ESPN.com’s Andrew Marchand penned an interesting profile of Yankees assistant GM Jean Afterman, who is currently the only woman holding that position leaguewide. Afterman has a fascinating and varied background; she ultimately became a lawyer and later helped pioneer the movement of players from Japan to the majors. While Yankees GM credits her as a “pit bull” who could easily hold a position as his peer, she says she prefers to remain with the organization as an adviser. It’s a fun look at an interesting person that also tackles the ongoing question of whether the game can do more to grow the involvement of women in upper management.
In another profile, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com takes a look at controversial Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria as he reportedly prepares to sell his franchise. Crasnick examines some of the differing angles on Loria, focusing on his relationship with the tragically departed Jose Fernandez. Loria also defends his place in the game and discusses the possibility of taking an ambassadorship to France in a sit-down with Crasnick, which you’ll want to read for yourself.
Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado chatted with Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, who calls the star performer “one of the game’s most inquisitive superstars — if not the most inquisitive.” As he looks to build upon his standing as one of the game’s better all-around players, Arenado is described as constantly seeking to improve by interview subjects such as agent Joel Wolfe, former skipper Walt Weiss, and a variety of veteran players. Soon to turn 26, Arenado has compiled back-to-back forty-plus home run seasons, and also significantly boosted his walk rate last year while continuing to provide high-quality defensive work at third. Of course, his park-adjusted batting production suggests he has been more a very good than a great hitter to this point in his career, though he has improved at the plate in every season in the majors and could perhaps continue to do so if he can expand upon that growth in the plate-discipline department.

Rockies, Nolan Arenado Agree To Two-Year Deal

By Steve Adams | January 13, 2017 at 12:17pm CDT

The Rockies and third baseman Nolan Arenado have agreed to a two-year deal that comes with a guaranteed $29.5MM, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links). ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that Arenado will earn $11.75MM in 2017 and $17.75MM in 2018. Arenado will be arbitration-eligible one final time after this two-year deal is up, and he can become a free agent after the 2019 season.

That two-year rate constitutes a slight bump over the $28.65MM deal worked out last winter between Josh Donaldson and the Blue Jays. While Arenado doesn’t have the MVP award that Donaldson brought into his second year of arb eligibility as a Super Two, the former was working from a higher first-year arb salary ($5MM).

MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz had projected that Arenado would earn $13.1MM this year. Instead, he’ll take slightly less, and will perhaps give up some upside for the following season, in exchange for the certainty of the two-year arrangement.

Arenado is a highly valuable all-around player, delivering value with his glove and his bat. It’s the latter skill that pays through the arb process, though, and Arenado showed plenty in 2016. With Coors Field helping to boost his counting stats somewhat, Arenado turned in a second-straight season in which he led the National League in home runs and RBI. Though it isn’t a particularly notable factor in arbitration, it’s worth noting too that Arenado’s OBP also rose (from .323 to .362) as he significantly improved in the plate discipline department by doubling his walk tally from 34 to 68.

Bridich On Bullpen, CarGo Extension, Trumbo, Arenado

By Steve Adams | January 10, 2017 at 8:07pm CDT

Rockies GM Jeff Bridich spoke to reporters on a conference call on Tuesday, covering a wide range of topics pertaining to both the short- and long-term look of his team’s roster. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post and Thomas Harding of MLB.com were among those on-hand, and while I’d encourage readers to check out those pieces for full context and full quotes, here are some highlights from the general manager’s comments…

[Related: Rockies Depth Chart and Payroll Information via Roster Resource]

The Rockies are still exploring both trades and free agency, per Bridich. “The focus now is pitching, specifically our bullpen, if possible,” said Bridich. The third-year general manager confirmed that the Rox have spoken to the representatives for righties Greg Holland and Joe Blanton, though he unsurprisingly declined to comment on the extent of Colorado’s interest in either free agent. Bridich also noted: “There are multiple teams interested in those types of guys.”
Regarding the rumored extension for Carlos Gonzalez, Bridich acknowledged that the Rox have a desire to work out a new deal. “We’ve contemplated the possibility of an extension with him,” said the GM. “We’re hopeful we can at least explore that further. We feel like there’s a good chance we’ll be able to at least explore it further.” The 31-year-old Gonzalez is set to earn $20MM in 2017 — the final season of his seven-year, $80MM contract with the club.
The Rockies “remain in touch” with free agent slugger Mark Trumbo, but Bridich explained that the team has other priorities at this time. Nonetheless, Bridich has never expressly ruled out a deal with Trumbo, whom he termed “a very good player” on Tuesday, so reports will likely continue to link the two sides. Signing Trumbo would obviously complicate the Rockies’ infield and outfield pictures, as it would likely force the Rockies to deal one of their left-handed-hitting outfielders in order to clear an outfield role for Ian Desmond, who currently occupies first base (where Trumbo would presumably play in Colorado).
There haven’t been any substantial talks with third baseman Nolan Arenado about a contract extension, as Saunders notes in his column. Bridich said the first focus is on avoiding arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal, “…and if things come up, just like anything else, we are going to keep an open mind to anything.” MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arenado to earn a massive $13.1MM salary in his second trip through the arbitration process as a Super Two player. Arenado won’t turn 26 until April and has already cemented himself as one of the game’s truly elite players. His play to date has earned him plenty of financial security as well, so there’s little incentive for him to take any sort of discount.
Bridich didn’t rule out adding a bat to his bench, either. Colorado is on the verge of one such addition, as they’ve reportedly agreed to a one-year deal with Alexi Amarista. That contract hasn’t been finalized just yet, but Amarista will be taking his physical for the club this week. Even with the addition of Amarista, inexperienced names like Cristhian Adames and Jordan Patterson are set to vie for bench roles with the Rockies, so an additional bench signing would indeed seem to make sense. Gerardo Parra looks to be the current fourth outfielder, and Amarista can bounce all over the infield. A utility option with experience in both the infield and the outfield would seem like a sound upgrade, and the Rockies could also reasonably add one of the many remaining first basemen on the market to their bench. Adames is out of minor league options, which may help his cause in Spring Training.
Beyond the two columns linked above, Saunders tweets that Bridich “reaffirmed his faith in Tony Wolters and Tom Murphy as primary catchers.” Colorado has been speculatively listed as a landing spot for Matt Wieters, but the Rox do have an intriguing young platoon setup with the left-handed-hitting Wolters and the right-handed Murphy. Wolters draws excellent marks in pitch-framing, and each threw out better than 30 percent of attempted base thieves (40 percent, in Murphy’s case). Murphy also brings a track record of strong Triple-A production to the table, even if he’s rather inexperienced in the Majors.

Arbitration Breakdown: Nolan Arenado

By Matt Swartz | January 8, 2017 at 5:51pm CDT

Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong

Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado earned $5MM last year, but after belting 41 home runs, knocking in 133 runs and hitting .294 in 696 plate appearances, he is due for a hefty raise. The record raise for a second-time-eligible position player on a one-year deal is Chris Davis’ $7.1MM increase in 2014. My model actually projects for an $8.4MM raise in Arenado’s case; however, the “Kimbrel Rule” – which states that no player gets projected for an increase over $1MM higher than the record raise for his service class – moves Arenado down to an $8.1MM raise (a $13.1MM salary).

Davis’ 2014 case is by far the most applicable to Arenado’s. Aside from those two, no other player eligible for his second year of arbitration has led his league in home runs and RBIs. Davis hit .286 with 53 homers and 138 RBIs the prior year, so his numbers are similar except for clearly having more HRs. However, Arenado does play a harder defensive position than Davis, a first baseman, and the former actually won a Gold Glove last year. So there is a good reason to think that Arenado could earn more, especially three years later. But the 12 fewer home runs signify that it is less than a sure thing.

Finding another comparable is extremely difficult. No other third basemen since 2009 have even hit 20 home runs and received one-year deals in their second year of arbitration eligibility. No other position players have hit at least 35 home runs and received one-year deals in their second year of arbitration eligibility.

Using players receiving multi-year deals is generally not customary in these cases, but can be done in some unique circumstances. Often when both the player and the team exchange numbers, the club’s offer can be seen as a potential comparable case. Josh Donaldson’s case last year could be one such scenario. Donaldson hit the exact 41 home runs that Arenado did this past year, and knocked in 123 runs (just 10 shy of Arenado’s total). He also hit .297, which is almost exactly where Arenado landed. Donaldson ultimately received a multi-year deal, but he first exchanged figures with the Blue Jays, who offered a $7.05MM raise. Donaldson’s two-year deal gave him a $7.35mM raise. He did win the MVP in his platform year, so that could be a better case, but the multi-year deal probably makes it a weaker comparable. On the other hand, Donaldson only requested a $7.5MM raise, so it would be hard to see why Arenado would get more without an MVP award.

I would guess that Arenado ultimately receives closer to a $7MM raise than the $8.1MM he is projected to land. Davis’ extra home runs and Donaldson’s MVP award help their cases look stronger than Arenado’s, and even though Donaldson got a multi-year deal, his exchange of salary figures with the Jays fit into a pretty tight window. Arenado may argue that Donaldson’s case is not applicable, and that Davis’ extra home runs came with less defense, but it might not work. Although fielding is certainly considered in arbitration cases, I have not found any statistically significant impact of defense on earnings and the overall effect is limiting. Arenado may yet earn his lofty projection, but I would take the under.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rockies, Nolan Arenado Have Yet To Discuss Extension

By Jeff Todd | September 29, 2016 at 5:34pm CDT

The Rockies have not yet approached star third baseman Nolan Arenado about a contract extension, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports in response to a reader inquiry. Both Arenado and his agent say that no talks have taken place about seasons beyond his current arbitration control.

Certainly, there’s no rush to explore a new pact. Arenado, 25, just played out his Super Two year and has three more years of control remaining. He remains under Colorado’s control through 2019.

That being said, the organization’s leverage only continues to diminish as Arenado’s earnings increase and his play continues to impress. He took down a hefty $5MM this year after a big 2015 season, and he has played his way into a significant raise with an even-more-impressive 2016 campaign.

Over his 678 plate appearances thus far on the year, Arenado carries a .293/.361/.567 slash while racking up forty home runs and 130 runs batted in. Those counting stats are highly valuable in the arbitration setting, all the more so since they are both league-leading totals (as they were in 2015).

In actuality, the offensive production is more very good than great, given that half of it has come at Coors Field. Looking further into the numbers, Arenado owns a strong (but hardly earth-shattering) 123 wRC+. Of course, his true value lies in the fact that he delivers that quality production as a premium defender at the hot corner.

Given his age and productivity, Arenado is unquestionably one of the game’s better young position players. And he’s young enough that any control-enhancing extension would cover late-prime seasons (his age 29 season and beyond). With a big arb salary to start, there’s a stack of cash already all but guaranteed to Arenado, so he’ll be in a nice position to demand — and receive — a major guarantee if the Rox do ever take a pass at a new deal.

NL West Notes: Arenado, Alexei, Padres, Norris, Dodgers

By Steve Adams | March 18, 2016 at 11:51pm CDT

Nolan Arenado has quickly blossomed as arguably the best player on the Rockies, but there have been no talks of a long-term deal between the two sides to this point, tweets Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Soon to turn 25 years old, Arenado had a monster season in 2015, batting .287/.323/.575 and leading the NL in homers (42), RBIs (130) and total bases (354) while also earning a Gold Glove. In his first trip through arbitration this winter, the Wasserman client took home a hefty (relative to other first-time arb players) $5MM payday, and he’ll go through that process three more times due to his status as a Super Two player before hitting the open market following the 2019 season. The Rockies, then, still have plenty of time to talk extension, though the price will only escalate if Arenado keeps producing at that level.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: Friday

By Steve Adams | January 15, 2016 at 7:30pm CDT

The deadline for teams to exchange arbitration figures with eligible players is 1pm ET today. Dozens of arb agreements figure to flow in over the next few hours, and we’ll keep track of the smaller arb agreements in this post. All projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and can be viewed on the full list of 156 players that filed for arbitration this year. Remember also that you can keep track of everyone that has avoided arbitration by checking out MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.

Onto the agreements…

Shortstop Zack Cozart is in agreement with the Reds for an undisclosed sum, per a team announcement. He projected at $2.9MM in his second year of eligibility after a promising start to the 2015 season was cut short by a serious knee injury.
The Diamondbacks announced that they have avoided arbitration with righty Rubby De La Rosa for an undisclosed sum. He was projected at $3.2MM but, per Jack Magruder of Fanragsports.com (on Twitter), will earn only $2.35MM.
Reliever Fernando Rodriguez settled with the Athletics for $1.05MM — beneath his projected $1.3MM — per the Associated Press.
Dodgers infielder Justin Turner will earn $5.1MM next season, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. That’s just a shade under his $5.3MM projection.
The Braves settled with reliever Arodys Vizcaino for $897,500, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets. He had a $1.1MM projection entering the fall.
Both Zach Putnam will earn a $975K salary next year after agreeing with the White Sox, per a club announcement. That’s $175K over the projected arb value of the Super Two.
The Cardinals settled with first baseman Matt Adams for $1.65MM, Heyman tweets. That’s a small bump over his $1.5MM projections. The team is also in agreement with right-hander Seth Maness, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Super Two reliever projected at $1.2MM but will receive $1.4MM, per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter).
Righty Tom Koehler receives a $3.5MM payday from the Marlins, per Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The team gets a break on the $3.9MM that had been projected. The team also has an agreement with righties David Phelps and Carter Capps, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets. Heyman adds (via Twitter) that Phelps will earn exactly his projected amount of $2.5MM. Capps was predicted to earn $800K, but his salary is yet to be reported.
The Diamondbacks agreed to a $4.35MM rate with first-year-eligible starter Shelby Miller, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. He had projected at $4.9MM. Notably, Miller comes in just ahead of fellow 3+ service-class pitcher Harvey (who is covered below). Fellow Arizona hurler Patrick Corbin will earn $2.525MM next year, Passan also tweets.
The Nationals have agreed with infielder Danny Espinosa for $2.875MM, Jon Heyman tweets. He gets a slight bump over his $2.7MM projection in his second season of arb eligibility.
Nolan Arenado will receive a $5MM salary from the Rockies in his first season of eligibility, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. That’s exactly what fellow star young third baseman Manny Machado settled for as well, though Arenado was a Super Two. As Swartz explained recently, those two players’ cases may well have been tied together despite some important distinctions. He also explained why Arenado might not reach his sky-high $6.6MM projection in actuality.
The Orioles have agreed with starter Miguel Gonzalez for $5.1MM, Eduardo Rodriguez of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. Gonzalez projected for $4.9MM.
Outfielder Chris Coghlan agreed at $4.8MM with the Cubs, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat tweets. That’s quite a nice increase over his projected $3.9MM. Also agreeing with Chicago was reliever Pedro Strop, who gets $4.4MM, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). He had been projected at $4.7MM.
Both righty Michael Pineda (for $4.3MM) and infielder/outfielder Dustin Ackley ($3.2MM), according to Passan (via Twitter) and Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Those numbers largely track the projected amounts of $4.6MM and $3.1MM, respectively.
Danny Duffy will play at $4.225MM next year after reaching terms with the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). Catcher Drew Butera, meanwhile, will get $1,162,500 from Kansas City. Both represented small bumps over their projected values of $4MM and $1.1MM.
Marlins closer A.J. Ramos will get $3.4MM in 2016, Heyman reports (Twitter links). Teammate Adeiny Hechavarria, meanwhile, will take down $2.625MM. Both first-year-eligible players went over their projections ($2.8MM and $2.3MM, respectively).
The Mets will pay $4.325MM to Matt Harvey and $3MM to shortstop Ruben Tejada for 2016, ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin reports (Twitter links). Harvey approaches, but doesn’t quite reach, his $4.7MM projection. Though he’s still recovering from an unfortunate leg injury suffered during the post-season, Tejada will take home a cool half-million more than had been projected.
Righty Joe Kelly has agreed with the Red Sox at $2.6MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. He falls a fair sight shy of the $3.2MM that MLBTR projected. Though he reached ten wins on the year, Kelly scuffled to a 4.82 ERA over his 134 1/3 innings.
Righty Drew Hutchison agreed with the Blue Jays for $2.2MM, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter. He falls short of a $2.6MM projection after a tough 2015 campaign.
The Tigers have reached terms with shortstop Jose Iglesias for $2.1MM, per another Heyman tweet. The deal also includes some incentives, per the report. That’s a healthy jump up over the $1.5MM projection for the slick-fielding infielder, who did have a strong 2015 season.
The Mariners announced that they reached agreement with lefty Charlie Furbush and righty Evan Scribner. Furbush will receive $1.7MM, while Scribner will get $807.5K, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports.
Both shortstop Jean Segura and righty Wily Peralta are under contract with the Brewers, per a team announcement. Segura gets $2.6MM after being projected at $3.2MM, per Heyman (Twitter link). Matt Swartz’s system pegged Peralta at $2.8MM, and that’s exactly what he’ll earn, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter).

There are plenty more after the jump:

Earlier Updates

Marlins ace Jose Fernandez has agreed to a $2.8MM salary that can reach $3MM via his incentives, tweets Yahoo’s Jeff Passan. That deal puts Fernandez comfortably north of his $2.2MM projection. He’ll hope for a full healthy season at the front of Miami’s rotation.
Passan also tweets that Cubs closer Hector Rondon will land a $4.2MM salary, which clears his $3.6MM projection. Rondon racked up 30 saves with a sparkling 1.67 ERA this season and is in line to close in Chicago once again next year.
The Cubs have also agreed to terms with lefty Travis Wood and right-hander Justin Grimm, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (on Twitter). Wood will earn a $6.175MM salary that is within $225K of his $6.4MM projection, and Grimm will take home $1.275MM, exceeding his $1MM projection. Both will play key roles for the Cubs next year, with Wood potentially occupying a swingman role but also facing lefties late in games and Grimm hoping to replicate his 1.99 ERA from 2015.
Sticking with the Cubs, Adam Warren will avoid arb with a $1.7MM deal in his first season with Chicago after a strong 3.29 ERA last season with the Yankees, according to Baseball America’s Josh Norris (on Twitter). That figure is a bit north of Warren’s $1.5MM projection.
Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports (links to Twitter) that the Twins have avoided arbitration with infielders Eduardo Nunez and Eduardo Escobar. Nunez will receive $1.475MM and Escobar will take him $2.15MM, per Berardino. That puts Nunez right in line with his $1.5MM projection and Escobar $350K ahead of his $1.8MM estimate. Escobar is in line to be Minnesota’s starting shortstop. Berardino also reports that right-hander Casey Fien settled at $2.275MM — a slight bump on top of his $2.2MM projection (Twitter link). He’ll see action in middle relief next year.
The Blue Jays and lefty Aaron Loup have agreed to a $1.05MM salary for the 2016 season, per Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi (on Twitter). Loup registered a 4.46 ERA but flashed excellent strikeout-to-walk numbers in 42 1/3 innings (46 strikeouts, seven walks). He was projected to earn $900K.
The Rays and catcher Rene Rivera settled at $1.7MM, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. That’s $100K more than his $1.6MM projection. Rivera didn’t provide any value with the bat last season but is an excellent pitch-framer and draws strong reviews for his overall defensive prowess. Topkin also tweets that Logan Morrison ($4.2MM), Erasmo Ramirez ($2.375MM) and Hank Conger ($1.5MM) have avoided arbitration. Morrison’s deal is right in line with his projection of $4.1MM, while Ramirez is a bit shy of his $2.8MM figure and the same holds true of Conger and his $1.8MM projection.
Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle tweets that Marwin Gonzalez and the Astros agreed to a $2MM salary — $100K more than his $1.9MM projection. Gonzalez will fill in around the infield as needed next season after a solid all-around year in 2015, when he hit .279/.317/.442.
MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian has news on the Indians’ remaining arb-eligibles: Lonnie Chisenhall gets $2.725MM, Jeff Manship gets $765K and Josh Tomlin earns $2.25MM (links to Twitter). They had been respectively projected at $3MM, $700K and $3.1MM. Tomlin falls a ways shy of his projection, though Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets that his salary is fully guaranteed, which is a nice perk, as that’s not the norm for arb contracts.
Jon Heyman tweets that Yasmani Grandal and the Dodgers settled at $2.8MM for the 2016 season. That’s $100K more than the $2.7MM projected for Grandal after a strong first year in L.A., wherein he batted .234/.353/.403 with 16 home runs.
The Rangers and Tanner Scheppers agreed to a $900K salary, tweets Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. The right-hander had been projected to earn $800K and will look to earn a job in the bullpen next year.
Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that the Blue Jays have avoided arbitration with left-hander Brett Cecil, agreeing to a $3.8MM deal (Twitter link). Cecil’s deal tops his projection by $400K. The southpaw lost the closer’s gig in Toronto last season but rebounded to post strong overall numbers: a 2.48 ERA with 11.6 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 in 54 1/3 innings.
Nicholson-Smith also tweets that the Pirates and righty Jared Hughes have agreed to a $2.175MM salary for next season. That falls right in line with his $2.2MM projection. Hughes, 30, logged a 2.28 ERA with 4.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a huge 63.7 percent ground-ball rate in 67 innings last year.
Sticking with the Pirates, Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter) that Francisco Cervelli will secure a $3.5MM salary for 2016 in lieu of arbitration. He also reports that lefty Tony Watson will take home $3.45MM. Cervelli’s deal clears his projection by $1MM, while Watson’s falls about the same sum shy. Cervelli had a career-year in 2015, batting .295/.370/.401 with seven home runs. He’s now one year from free agency. Watson, meanwhile, recorded a stellar 1.91 ERA in 75 1/3 innings. He has two years to go before free agency.
Passan also tweets that Indians closer Cody Allen has landed a hefty $4.15MM payday in his first trip through arb, with his saves totals leading him to clear his $3.5MM projection by a fairly sizable margin. Allen was again dominant in 2015, leading the AL with 58 games finished and recording a 2.99 ERA with 12.9 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and 34 saves.
Passan also has the scoop on a trio of Mets (Twitter link): Addison Reed ($5.3MM) Carlos Torres ($1.05MM) and Josh Edgin ($625K). Each figures to see significant time in the ’pen next season, with Reed taking on a prime setup role. Reed will fall $400K shy of his projection, while Torres clears his $800K projection and Edgin lands just slightly north of his $600K projection. Edgin missed the year with Tommy John surgery, while Reed put up a 3.38 ERA in 56 innings and Torres worked to a 4.68 ERA in 57 2/3 frames.
Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle tweets that right-hander Josh Fields will get $900K from the Astros in place of an arb hearing. That’s $100K higher than his projection. Fields had an under-the-radar season, posting a 3.55 ERA with 11.9 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 in 50 2/3 innings for the ’Stros.
The Rangers announced that they’ve avoided arb with catcher Robinson Chirinos, and Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweets that he’ll earn $1.55MM next year. That’s nearly identical to his $1.4MM projection and represents a raise on the heels of a .232/.325/.438 season in which he blasted 10 home runs.
The Astros and infielder Luis Valbuena have agreed to terms on a $6.125MM salary for the upcoming season, thereby avoiding arbitration, according to Jon Heyman (Twitter link). That figure surpasses Swartz’s projection by about 5.5 percent, rewarding Valbuena for a season in which he slugged a career-best 25 home runs. Overall, Valbuena batted .224/.310/.438, splitting his time between third base and first base.
The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Anthony Rendon. He’ll earn $2.8MM, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crascnick, which is $300K greater than the sum projected by Swartz. Rendon was injured for much of the 2015 campaign and batted .264/.344/.363 when healthy. He’ll hope to get back to his .287/.351/.473 form from 2014 in the season to come.
Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports that the Brewers and left-handed setup man Will Smith have avoided arb with a one-year, $1.475MM agreement (Twitter link). Smith, 26, quietly had an outstanding season in Milwaukee, pitching to a 2.70 ERA with 12.9 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 in 63 1/3 innings. He’ll be one of Milwaukee’s top late-inning relief arms this season and had been projected at $1.2MM and exceeded that number by $200K.
The Diamondbacks and right-hander Randall Delgado have agreed to a $1.275MM sum for the 2016 season, tweets Heyman. Delgado, who had been projected at $1MM, posted a 3.25 ERA in 72 innings of relief for Arizona last season. Arizona is also in agreement with right-hander Daniel Hudson, tweets Passan, putting him a strong $700K above Swartz’s projection. Hudson returned from a pair of Tommy John surgeries to establish himself as a strong setup option with the D-backs, pitching in the upper 90s with his fastball and recording a 3.86 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 in 67 2/3 innings.
Heyman also tweets that the Pirates and Jordy Mercer are in agreement on a one-year, $2.075MM deal, clearing his $1.8MM projection. Mercer had a down season in 2015 that included a six-week absence due to a knee injury, but he’ll look to rebound in regular duty at shortstop this year. He batted .244/.293/.320 in 430 PAs last season.
Also via Heyman (links to Twitter), the Blue Jays have avoided arbitration with right-hander Steve Delabar ($835K) and outfielder Michael Saunders ($2.9MM). Delabar, who will compete for a bullpen spot in 2016, struggled to a 5.22 ERA in 29 1/3 innings with the Jays this past season. Meanwhile, Saunders scarcely saw the field due to a knee injury that sidelined him for most of the season. Delabar cleared his $700K projection, while Saunders’ $2.9MM projection was an exact match.
The Dodgers and left-hander Luis Avilan have agreed to a $1.39MM salary for the 2016 season, tweets Heyman. He tops his $1.1MM projection on the heels of a 4.05 ERA with 8.3 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 in 53 1/3 innings split between L.A. and Atlanta.
The White Sox and right fielder Avisail Garcia have avoided arbitration with a one-year, $2.1MM agreement, reports Crasnick (via Twitter). That sum comes up $200K short of the $2.3MM projection from Swartz. Garcia, 24, struggled in his first full season at the Major League level last year, hitting .257/.309/.365 with sub-par contributions in the outfield. He’s still young enough that the Sox can hope for him to tap into his potential, though they’ve also been linked to outfield upgrades.
The Royals have reached one-year agreements with outfielder Jarrod Dyson ($1.725MM), right-hander Louis Coleman ($725K) and catcher Tony Cruz ($975K), reports Heyman (all links to Twitter). Dyson’s figure is just $25K more than his $1.7MM projection, though Coleman fell a ways shy of his $1MM projection. Dyson, who batted .250/.311/.380 with 26 stolen bases in 225 plate appearances last season, could see the lion’s share of playing time in right field for Kansas City this season. Coleman, 30 in April, will compete for a bullpen spot after tossing just three big league innings last year but working to a 1.69 ERA in 64 Triple-A innings. The 29-year-old Cruz will compete for a backup job in KC after hitting .204/.235/.310 as a backup in St. Louis last season. His salary will nearly match his $1MM projection.
Catcher Welington Castillo and the D-backs are in agreement on a one-year deal worth $3.7MM, according to Heyman (Twitter link). After being bounced from the Cubs and Mariners with little fanfare in trades last season, Castillo had a huge finish with Arizona, batting .255/.317/.496 with 17 homers in 80 games. Overall, he batted .237/.296/.453 with 19 homers in 378 PAs. Castillo’s $3.7MM salary will clear his $3.6MM by a narrow margin of $100K.

Arbitration Breakdown: Nolan Arenado

By Matt Swartz | January 14, 2016 at 3:07pm CDT

Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Nolan Arenado broke out offensively in 2015 with 42 home runs, 130 runs batted in and a .287 batting average to go along with his third Gold Glove Award. Arenado was not a prolific power hitter before this year, so he only has 70 career home runs, including this year’s 42. This jump in power in his third year in the league is unique and makes it harder to find appropriate comparables for him when building an arbitration case. Our model has him at $6.6MM, but I could easily see this being either a big miss or a big win for the model.

It has been eight years since the last time a hitter entered his first year of arbitration after clubbing at least 40 home runs in his platform year. That was when Ryan Howard beat the Phillies in an arbitration hearing to earn $10MM. However, Howard also had been a power hitter for over two seasons beforehand and had 129 career home runs, nearly twice as many as Arenado brings to the table. It seems very unlikely that Arenado could get $10MM.

Another case that is old enough that it might not be applicable is Ryan Ludwick from 2009, although his numbers are at least closer to Arenado in that he had a huge jump in power in his platform season. Ludwick’s 37 homers in his platform season were five fewer than Arenado his this season, but the two had identical marks of 28 homers combined in their careers prior their platform arbitration year. Ludwick also had a lower career batting average, 34 fewer career RBIs and 17 fewer RBIs in his platform season, although he did post a higher average in his platform (.299). All that said, Arenado should surpass Ludwick’s $3.7MM by a substantial margin.

Another thing that makes Arenado unique is his defense. No player in my dataset, which goes back nine years, has had three Gold Gloves before reaching arbitration eligibility. Only Matt Wieters had two, and he was a catcher. Wieters did earn $5.5MM, and while he’s a totally different position than Arenado at third base, the concept that he had such a high salary with one fewer gold glove and worse power numbers (23 HR, 83 RBI platform year; 65 and 249 career), could help Arenado argue that he deserves more. However, it is rare that a catcher would be a comparable player for a third baseman.

Few other players seem like reasonable comparables. Chris Carter hit .227 with 37 home runs and 88 RBIs in his platform year in 2014, and had a career average of .222 with 85 home runs and 216 RBIs. Carter got $4.175MM. Other than career home runs, Arenado clearly has bested Carter on all of these fronts. Pedro Alvarez had very similar numbers the year before that (.233/36/100 platform, .235/86/268 career) and got $4.25MM, making that $4.175-4.25MM range seem like something of a floor in Arenado’s case.

How much higher than $4.25MM we would expect Arenado to go is tricky. Dan Uggla got $5.35MM in 2009, with a worse platform year (.260/32/92) but decent career numbers (.262/90/270). However, the age of that case makes it a potentially stale comparison. Giancarlo Stanton had only 24 platform year home runs when he got $6.5MM, but he had 117 career home runs at that point. Mark Trumbo had 34 platform year home runs, but 95 career home runs, although his batting average was just .234 in his platform year. None of these players can boast the defense that Arenado can, either.

Another factor that could play into Arenado’s case is where Manny Machado lands. Machado is similar to Arenado in that he had an explosion of power in his platform year, hits for average, and plays third base very well. Both of these players are likely to earn similar amounts, although Arenado led the league in home runs and runs batted in, plus he has three Gold Gloves, which should give him a leg up on Machado. Both players will pay careful attention to where the other guy considers signing. Ultimately, I suspect both will fall short of their projected salaries (Machado’s projected $5.9MM is $700K less than Arenado’s $6.6MM projection). However, if one player does indeed reach his projection (which is certainly possible), the other is likely to have a better chance to do so as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nolan Arenado Switches To Wasserman Media Group

By Steve Adams | November 4, 2015 at 5:04pm CDT

Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado has changed representation, leaving agent Scott Boras and signing on with agents Joel Wolfe and Nick Chanock of the Wasserman Media Group, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter).

Arenado, one of the game’s brightest young stars, is coming off an All-Star and MVP-caliber season in which he batted a whopping .287/.337/.575 with an NL-leading 42 homers and an MLB-best 130 runs batted in, to say nothing of the characteristically standout defense he played at the hot corner. The 24-year-old Arenado (25 next April) will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter as a Super Two player, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn a significant $6.6MM salary. Arenado, who will be arb-eligible four times instead of three due to that Super Two status, figures to see his arbitration price skyrocket over the coming years if he does indeed start his arb earnings with such a high base.

For Rockies fans, the switch in representation is somewhat notable. Boras has a reputation for encouraging his players to go year-to-year throughout the arbitration process as opposed to signing long-term extensions — particularly ones that buy out free-agent years. While the switch to WMG certainly doesn’t mean that Arenado is likely to sign an extension, it would seem to increase the possibility, at the very least.

Wolfe is, after all, the agent for Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who signed a record-setting 13-year, $325MM extension last winter. Other WMG clients to sign long-term deals that buy out free-agent years over the past several years include Hanley Ramirez and Carlos Santana (as can be seen in the MLBTR Extension Tracker). Arenado, though, will already be extremely well-compensated, as was the case with Stanton, so if he’s to sign a long-term deal it would need to be enormous. He could already be facing $50MM+ worth of arbitration earnings if he remains healthy, and he’s slated to hit free agency heading into his age-29 season, creating the potential for a historic payday.

Arenado’s switch in representation will be reflected in the MLBTR Agency Database, which contains information on more than 2,000 Major League and Minor League players. If you see any errors or omissions, please let us know: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

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