A Battle Of NL East Superstars
We’ve seen two of the brightest young offensive stars in baseball emerge in the National League East over the past couple years. The Braves’ Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Nationals’ Juan Soto have been enormously successful since they made their debuts in 2018, and the outfielders have played important roles in helping lead their clubs to prominence. The Braves have taken the division in each of Acuna’s two seasons, while Soto was among the reasons the Nationals won their first-ever World Series last fall. The two look as if they’ll be franchise cornerstones for the long haul, but if you can only have one, which player would you pick?
Going by production, there hasn’t been a huge difference in their careers so far. The 22-year-old Acuna’s a 9.3-fWAR player through his first 1,202 plate appearances and a .285/.365/.532 hitter with 67 home runs, 53 stolen bases and an excellent wRC+ of 133. The righty masher fell just shy of a 40/40 effort in 2019, when he smacked 41 dingers and swiped an NL-high 37 bags. Furthermore, Acuna has fared respectably as a defender thus far – including as the Braves’ primary center fielder last year – with 16 DRS and a minus-0.6 UZR to this point.
By measure of wRC+, Soto has been an even more effective hitter than Acuna. Soto, who only became old enough to legally drink as last year’s World Series was going on, owns a jaw-dropping 143 mark in that category. The lefty swinger’s a .287/.403/.535 batter with 56 homers and 8.5 fWAR through 1,153 PA, though he doesn’t come close to Acuna in terms of stolen bases (17). Acuna’s overall defensive output has also been better, but Soto did make strides in that area last season. After putting up minus-6 DRS and minus-4.2 UZR as a rookie in left field, he improved to zero and minus-0.7 in those categories as a sophomore.
The overall numbers Acuna and Soto have managed at such young ages have been astounding. But you can’t just consider production when comparing the two. One of the key facts about Acuna is that his team has already locked him up for the foreseeable future, as the Braves extended him to an eight-year, $100MM guarantee after his first season. With $17MM club options for 2027 and ’28, the deal could keep Acuna in place for almost the whole decade. That’s a lengthy commitment and a lot of money, but it has nonetheless always come off as a no-brainer move from Atlanta’s perspective.
The Nationals would surely love to sign Soto to a similar pact, but it’s hard to believe they’ll get him on such a team-friendly deal. At the very least, though, they do still have the right to control the Scott Boras client for the next half-decade, including one more pre-arbitration year if a season does take place in 2020.
The bottom line is that you can’t lose with either of these players, no doubt two of the greatest assets in the sport. But you’re only allowed to build around one of them, so take your pick…
(Poll link for app users)
Ronald Acuna Jr. Or Juan Soto?
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Acuna 71% (3,923)
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Soto 29% (1,572)
Total votes: 5,495
NL East Notes: Acuna, Nats, Mets
Let’s check in on a few NL East clubs…
- In his two years in the majors, Braves superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. has divided his time between the corner outfield and center. He’s slated to open 2020 in right field – the OF position he has played the least during his career. But the Braves are bullish on Acuna in right – particularly because of his arm – and he’s more than happy to play there, Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. The 22-year-old told Burns that right’s “a position I feel more comfortable at.” That’s good news for Atlanta, which expects Acuna to line up there not just this year, but for the majority of his career, per Burns.
- As was reported in December, Nationals right-hander Erick Fedde has a fourth minor league option. Fedde found out that’s the case from his father, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes. “Hey, I was reading an article online saying you have a fourth option,” Fedde’s father said in a text message. “Dad, don’t be dumb. Fourth options are not a thing,” Fedde replied. But they can be “a thing” if you’ve used your three options and totaled fewer than five professional seasons as a major or league leaguer. That applies to Fedde, a 2014 first-round pick who didn’t make his pro debut until June 2015 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Fedde called it “maybe an unfortunate bounce” that he’ll be optionable for another year, but he told Zuckerman he’s pleased he’ll at least get to stay in the Washington organization. While Fedde could still end up as part of the Nationals’ rotation sometime this season, he has struggled as a major leaguer so far. Despite a 51 percent groundball rate, the 26-year-old has put up a 5.39 ERA/5.32 FIP with 6.39 K/9 and 3.95 BB/99 in 143 2/3 innings.
- Mets right-handed pitching prospect Jordan Humphreys underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2017 and has since thrown just two innings, both at the rookie level last year. Still recovering from the procedure last summer, Humphreys considered calling it a career, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com relays. However, as DiComo details, Mets rehab pitching coordinator Jon Debus encouraged Humphreys to keep going. He listened, and after an encouraging showing in the Arizona Fall League, he’s now on the Mets’ 40-man roster and in big league camp. “I’m glad to be here. I’m finally healthy,” Humphreys, MLB.com’s 22nd-ranked Mets prospect, told DiComo.
Rep 1 Agency Acquires Peter E. Greenberg And Associates
Rep 1 Baseball has agreed to acquire Peter E. Greenberg and Associates, making it one of the largest agencies in the game. It now has over 60 major league clients on its roster and more than 150 in the minors.
Rep 1 already counted Edwin Encarnacion, Rafael Devers, Luis Severino, Dee Gordon and Eloy Jimenez among its high-profile players before this acquisition, as reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database. It will now add the likes of Ronald Acuna Jr., Starling Marte and Gio Urshela, among other familiar names in the bigs.
It’s been an active past year on the contract front for several of the aforementioned players. Encarnacion signed a one-year, $12MM deal with the White Sox this offseason. He’s now teammates with Jimenez, whom the White Sox last March inked to a then-record contract for a player with no MLB service time (six years, $43MM). The Yankees’ Severino (four years, $40MM) and the Braves’ Acuna (eight years, $100MM) also joined in on the 2019 extension bonanza. Devers, who had a star-caliber 2019 with the Red Sox, could be next, but the 22-year-old still has one more season left before he’s even eligible for arbitration.
NL Notes: Braves, Acuna, Brewers, Urias, Nationals, Zimmerman, Payroll
Atlanta Braves manager Brian Snitker has no intention of moving Ronald Acuna Jr. to the cleanup spot, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien (via Twitter). Even before the Marcell Ozuna signing, Snitker wasn’t entertaining removing Acuna from leadoff, where he excelled last season after a short stint in the middle of the order. Acuna has 15 leadoff home runs across his two seasons with the Braves and an overall batting line of .297/.380/.565 out of the leadoff spot. Acuna hardly struggled elsewhere in the lineup, but he’s certainly a luxury at the top of the order for the two-time defending NL East champs. With Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman and Marcell Ozuna presumably behind him in the order, there’s no particular need to mess with success. Let’s check in elsewhere in the National League…
- Milwaukee Brewers infielder Luis Urias is returning stateside to have his left wrist examined, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter links). Urias cut his winter ball season short upon experiencing soreness. The Brewers hope to have answers by the middle of next week, and surgery is a possibility. Though mention of surgery sets off alarm bells, the Brewers expect this to be a minor issue. Urias, of course, is looking to establish himself as a full-time big-leaguer in his first season with the Brewers. He put up 1.0 bWAR, but just 0.1 fWAR across 71 games of action as a rookie with the Padres in 2019.
- Now that franchise cornerstone Ryan Zimmerman is back on an exceedingly affordable $2MM deal, the Nationals have financial flexibility under the tax, writes MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Roster resource puts the Nats’ tax payroll at about $204MM, which doesn’t provide a ton of wiggle room under the $208MM tax line. Zuckerman figures it closer to $194MM, which is the number given by Cot’s Contracts, roughly $14MM under the tax line. Either way, the Nats have been a willing tax payer in the past, and after ducking under the line in 2019, they’re safe to exceed it again without extra penalty. Given the level of free agent available, however, the Nats are probable to enter the season – like their divisional mates in New York and Philadelphia – near the line with the ability to exceed it with midseason additions should they be close enough to push for the playoffs.
East Notes: Acuna Jr., BoSox, Betts, Yanks, Hicks
The Braves announced Wednesday that they’ve shut banged up outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. down for the rest of the regular season. Hip tightness and a left groin strain have troubled Acuna of late, but the NL East-winning Braves expect the superstar to be fine by the time the NLDS begins next week. The Braves, who are locked into the NL’s No. 2 seed, don’t have anything of substance to play for over the final few days of the season. However, it’s still a shame for the 21-year-old Acuna that he won’t have an opportunity at a 40-40 campaign. Acuna’s outstanding regular season will end with 41 home runs, 37 steals, a .280/.365/.518 line and 5.5 fWAR over 715 plate appearances.
Moving over to the AL East…
- Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts has made it known that he plans to become a free agent after 2020, his final season of arbitration control. The 2018 AL MVP told Rob Bradford of WEEI that he’s taking a business-minded approach instead of one driven by emotions because of his upbringing. “Fans and media get caught up in emotions and that’s just not how I was raised and that’s just not what my point of view with my agents is,” said Betts. “We take emotions out of it and we focus on the business part. Of course, I love it here. This is all I know. But you also have to take that emotional side out of it and get to what is actually real.” Betts further explained to Bradford that a business-first mindset has steered him right in the past, specifically when he signed with the Red Sox as a fifth-round pick in 2011 and when he brushed off a possible contract extension before the 2017 season in order to reach arbitration during the ensuing winter.
- Utility player Brock Holt, one of Betts’ Red Sox teammates, may be in his final days with the club. The pending free agent told Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald that he has loved playing for the Red Sox, who acquired him back in 2013. At the same time, though, he finds the idea of a potential trip to free agency “exciting.” That’s understandable coming from Holt, who boasts a respectable track record of production. Injuries have limited him to 83 games this season, but the 31-year-old has batted a solid .303/.379/.414 during that 280-PA span.
- Although he hasn’t played since Aug. 3, injured Yankees center fielder Aaron Hicks continues to hold out hope that he’ll be able to return during the postseason, George A. King III of the New York Post reports. Hicks, who’s dealing with a right flexor tendon issue, has begun to throw from 120 feet. He hasn’t progressed to throwing to bases, though, and there won’t be any chance of a comeback until that happens.
Ronald Acuna Dealing With Hip Tightness
The last thing the Braves need at this point of the season, with nothing more to gain or lose in the standings, is an injury issue — least of all to a key player. In that light, it was rather concerning to see young star Ronald Acuna depart yesterday’s game early.
Per a club announcement at the time, Acuna was pulled owing to hip tightness. The team characterized the decision as precautionary. Of course, that’s something of a typical placeholding statement in such situations, so Braves fans would be forgiven for fearing worse.
Manager Brian Snitker made clear after the contest that the organization doesn’t see cause for alarm, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports. “He’ll just be day to day,” says Snitker. “We’ll treat him up and see how he is tomorrow.”
Acuna was even more forceful on the point, saying he didn’t feel he needed to be removed and will be ready to go whenever he’s written back into the lineup. That’s just the sort of gung ho attitude you admire in a young player, but it’s also something the team needs to protect against with the postseason beckoning.
Indeed, the 21-year-old also indicated that this isn’t a new issue.
“I’ve been feeling it before. But I’m a warrior and I’m going to keep playing through these types of things. That’s just the way that I am. I was dealing with it and pushing through it. But eventually, it came to the point where it became a little more intolerable.”
Given that, it was surely wise of the Braves to take a cautious approach. Acuna is, after all, one of the team’s key players. Even if the hip isn’t a significant hindrance at the plate, it could conceivably limit him in the field and on the bases — where he derives significant value — or end up resulting in a more concerning health issue.
Quick Hits: Extensions, Boras, Acuna, Dodgers, Pujols, Cards, Giants
Agent Scott Boras, who brought you the term “swellopt,” has now concocted a phrase to describe team-friendly extensions young major leaguers sign, per Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times. “Great young players are getting what I call ‘snuff contracts,’” Boras told McCullough. “And a snuff contract is that they’re trying to snuff out the market. They know the player is a great player, and he’s exhibited very little performance. So they’re coming to him at 20 and 21, and I’m going to snuff out your ability to move, to go anywhere, to do anything, and your value. And I’m going to pay you maybe 40 cents on the dollar to do it. What’s my risk?” In Boras’ estimation, the eight-year, $100MM guarantee Braves star Ronald Acuna Jr., 21, signed this week is “the king of the snuff contracts,” as it hampers the outfielder’s career earning power while giving Atlanta what looks like a sweetheart deal for a franchise player in the making.
Acuna’s accord is one of a whopping 27 multiyear extensions doled out across the majors since Jan. 21, though the Dodgers haven’t joined the party, McCullough observes. Extensions have been almost nonexistent in Los Angeles under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, who has only given out one (Clayton Kershaw‘s three-year, $93MM deal after last season) since taking the reins in 2014. But Friedman told McCullough he “wouldn’t be surprised if within the next 12 months we do some.” McCullough points to Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler, Corey Seager, Enrique Hernandez, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson and Chris Taylor as potential extension candidates for Friedman & Co.
- Speaking of Kershaw, the ace left-hander appears to be nearing his 2019 debut. Kershaw will make a minor league rehab start Tuesday, which could set him up for a Dodgers return Sunday, Jorge Castillo of the LA Times tweets. The three-time NL Cy Young winner, 31, has been shelved on account of shoulder troubles since late February. Consequently, this will be the fourth straight injury-shortened campaign for Kershaw, whose 162 innings-per-season average from 2016-18 fell well shy of the 215-frame mean he put up over the previous seven years.
- First baseman Albert Pujols dominated headlines in 2011 when he elected to leave St. Louis, where he spent the first 11 seasons of his Hall of Fame career, for the Angels’ 10-year, $254MM offer. Pujols’ decision came after the Cardinals and Marlins also proposed decade-long contracts worth upward of $200MM. Now 39 years old and with $87MM remaining on his deal, Pujols recently reflected on his choice to leave the Cardinals, telling Graham Bensinger (via ESPN.com): “I felt that the approach that they took wasn’t showing me that they wanted me to be a longtime Cardinal. I believe I made the right decision.” If his rapid deterioration in Anaheim is any indication, St. Louis dodged a bullet in losing Pujols, even though he won three NL MVPs and two World Series as a Cardinal. Pujols slashed an incredible .328/.420/.617, averaged more than seven fWAR per year and never appeared in fewer than 143 games in a season while with the Redbirds. On the other hand, the Anaheim version’s a .260/.315/.452 hitter who has been worth one win above replacement a year and has twice missed at least 45 games in a season.
- As is often the case with minor league contracts, catcher Stephen Vogt‘s agreement with the Giants includes a June 1 opt-out chance, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. The Giants already have three backstops – Buster Posey, Erik Kratz and Aramis Garcia – occupying 40-man roster spots, which seems to decrease the 34-year-old Vogt’s odds of earning a promotion from Triple-A Sacramento. However, San Francisco’s a fan of the two-time All-Star’s bat and could summon him at some point, Schulman suggests. The former Ray, Athletic and Brewer hasn’t appeared in the majors since 2017, having missed all of last season because of shoulder surgery.
Braves Extend Ronald Acuna
3:34pm: The Braves have formally announced the extension.
Acuna will earn $1MM in both 2019 and 2020, $5MM in 2021, $15MM in 2022 and $17MM annually from 2023-26, Heyman tweets. There’s a $10MM buyout on his first $17MM option for the 2027 season.
11:27am: In an exclamation point on a spring full of extensions, the Braves are finalizing a $100MM deal with elite youngster Ronald Acuna, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter links). The eight-year contract comes with two option years, priced at $17MM apiece with a $10MM buyout, per the report. Acuna is represented by Alex Salazar of Gatemore Sports & Entertainment.
The agreement will begin with the present season, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). It’ll therefore run through at least the 2026 season, with options for the 2027 and 2028 campaigns. Acuna, who entered the current campaign at 21 years of age and with 159 days of MLB service, was on track to qualify for arbitration in 2021 (as a Super Two) and reach free agency after the 2024 campaign. Accordingly, the new deal guarantees two would-be free-agent campaigns and gives the Atlanta organization control over two more.
Acuna won the National League’s Rookie of the Year Award last season at twenty years of age. The multi-dimensional young star launched 26 home runs and slashed .293/.366/.552 in 487 plate appearances. He also swiped 16 bags and is considered a quality outfield defender, making him one of the highest-upside players in all of baseball.
Taking this sort of financial security is understandable for a player who didn’t secure a large bonus and still was several years removed from arbitration. But it took a massive bite out of his potential earning power as a professional ballplayer. Acuna will now be under team control through his age-30 season, with the deal maxing out at $124MM if both options are exercised.
There’s obviously very real risk in any deal of this magnitude, but the contract is laden with upside for the Atlanta organization. Excellent young players always deliver huge surplus value during the earlier portion of their careers, when they’re earning relative peanuts; that’s the nature of the system. But locking up Acuna now also delivers the potential for the gravy train to continue into the future.
Acuna might reasonably have anticipated something in the range of $50MM in arbitration earnings, with potential for more if he enjoys good health. If he keeps anything like his current pace, he’d have been in line for a monstrous free-agent contract in advance of his age-27 season. Instead, the Braves now have control over four more of Acuna’s mid-prime seasons — campaigns that could otherwise have been sold to the highest bidder at prices we can’t really even foresee at this point in time.
Unsurprisingly, given his excellence, Acuna has commanded a larger guarantee than the few other players who’ve done deals this early in their careers. Eloy Jimenez just received a $43MM promise from the White Sox, more than any sub-1.000 service player, before making his debut. The Acuna deal blows that guarantee out of the water. That was inevitable: Acuna has much greater upside as an all-around performer, has already established himself in the majors, and is still younger than Jimenez.
But it’s fair to ask whether Acuna’s contract structure is really preferable to that of Jimenez. If both of their contracts are maxed out through options, the former will have earned $124MM over ten years and sacrificed four free-agent seasons, while the latter will have received $75MM for eight years but will in effect have given up only one open-market campaign (as we explained in the post on his signing). What the Braves were willing to do obviously isn’t known, but Acuna might have been better served to have sought a lesser guarantee (with Jimenez as a presumptive floor) that secured his financial future while leaving more future free-agent seasons available to work with in the long run.
There was never really any doubt that Acuna was a central part of the Braves’ long-term plans, but that’s now all the more clear. The club will hope that Acuna functions as an affordable superstar for the decade to come, keeping open a lengthy contention window.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quick Hits: Acuna, Taylor, Rogers
Ronald Acuna was the most-anticipated Braves prospect in decades, and in spite of the extreme hype, he managed to not only meet expectations, but surpass them in most cases. David O’Brien of The Athletic details an oral history in celebration of what’s known as the Year of Acuna. The phenom hit .293/.366/.552 en route to a 3.7 fWAR season that won him the NL Rookie of the Year award, and became the youngest player in history to hit a grand slam in the postseason. Because he opened the year in the minors, Braves fans will have the privilege of watching Acuna play in Atlanta for at least six more seasons.
A pair of other small items…
- Although Nationals outfielder Michael A. Taylor struggled mightily at the end of the 2018 season, the club is hopeful that he’ll be able to revert to the promise he showed in a 3.1 fWAR 2017 campaign. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post details the storyline as it stands, including a few poignant quotes from GM Mike Rizzo. “If he figures out the contact portion of it a little bit better, you are talking about a guy that could have five tools,” he explained. “He’s had flashes of it in the past and he just needs to be more consistent in his approach at the plate, because the kid’s a really good player.” While Taylor did indeed show a lot of talent in 2017, it’s well-worth noting that the biggest difference between that and his 2018 performance was a 43-point difference in BABIP. Still, Taylor’s power numbers inexplicably plummeted last season as well, leaving room for optimism in regards to a potential rebound.
- Jake Rogers is still the Tigers‘ catcher of the future, Anthony Fenech writes in a piece for Baseball America, but he’ll have to do better than the .219/.305/.412 batting line he posted across 408 plate appearances at Double-A Erie this past season. According to GM Al Avila, Rogers is likely to begin the 2019 season at that same level. “Depending on how spring training goes, we’ll make a decision there,” he said at the winter meetings. “But I would say we’re kind of leaning towards (Erie), just for his own good.” The Tigers would “like to see him improve upon the offense” before giving him a promotion to the minors’ highest level. Vice President of Player Personnel Dave Littlefield offered something in the way of optimism regarding Rogers’ capabilities, expressing “no doubt” that he’ll be able to make the necessary adjustments in his swing, adding that he improved late in the year with some minor tweaks. Rogers was taken in third round of the 2016 draft, and currently ranks 12th among Detroit’s prospects.
Ronald Acuna, Shohei Ohtani Win Rookie Of The Year Awards
Precocious Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna has slugged his way to a National League Rookie of the Year Award, while two-way Angels star Shohei Ohtani took the top honors in the American League. While there were strong alternatives in both cases, these two players were the runaway favorites of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America voters. Juan Soto of the Nationals and Miguel Andujar of the Yankees were the respective runners up.
The 20-year-old Acuna burst onto the scene in 2018, launching 26 home runs and swiping 16 bags in 486 trips to the plate. He ended the season with a stellar .293/.366/.552 batting line. Already viewed as one of the game’s most exciting talents entering the 2018 campaign, Acuna now seems poised to take his place among the very best players in the majors.
It seemed at one point as if Juan Soto — who is even younger than Acuna — would run away with things in the NL. But Acuna went on a tear to end the season, helping lead his club to a stunning NL East title. Both of those players appear likely to clash in thrilling fashion well into the future in the division. (Things will presumably remain friendly, as the two seem to have hit it off on tour in Japan.) And it’ll also be fascinating to watch them each step into the box against third-place finisher Walker Buehler of the Dodgers, who had an exceptional debut season from the mound.
The trio of AL finalists was rather an exciting one as well. Ohtani, 24, staked out a position as the most fascinating baseball player on the planet by turning in high-end performances from the mound and the batter’s box. Primarily lauded for his promise as a hurler, Ohtani exceeded expectations with ten starts of 3.31 ERA ball with 11.0 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. While his time on the bump was curtailed by a UCL surgery that ultimately required Tommy John surgery, Ohtani proved stunningly productive with the bat as well. Though he benefited from platoon usage, and was limited to DH usage, Ohtani actually bested Acuna and Soto in wRC+ (152 vs. 143 and 146, respectivey).
Andujar was the clear number two in the minds of voters, taking all of the five first-place votes that did not go to Ohtani. The 23-year-old’s output wasn’t quite as eye-popping as those of the others discussed in this post, but he did it over a full season. Andujar ended up popping 27 long balls with a .297/.328/.527 slash in 606 plate appearances, though his glovework did not receive glowing reviews. Unless things are shaken up by trade, he’ll presumably pair with fellow Yankees infielder and third-place AL ROY finisher Gleyber Torres for years to come.