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Marlins Notes: Payroll, Alcantara

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The rebuilding Marlins have continued to subtract from their big league roster this winter, trading Jake Burger to the Rangers and Jesus Luzardo to the Phillies.  Since Burger wasn’t yet arbitration-eligible and Luzardo was projected for a modest $6MM in his second arb year, the trades were more about adding young talent than cutting payroll, yet losing even Luzardo’s estimated $6MM salary has an additional impact on a bigger-picture question facing Miami’s finances.

As observed by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (using estimates from RosterResource), the Marlins have a luxury tax number of roughly $82.8MM.  This leaves the Fish some ground to cover before they reach the $105MM threshold estimated as the figure representing 150 percent of the club’s reported $70MM or so in revenue-sharing funds.  As stipulated by the league’s collective bargaining agreement, teams who receive revenue-sharing funds must spend at least 150 percent of those funds on player payroll, at the risk of facing a grievance from the players’ union.

It wouldn’t be the first time that the Marlins faced this consequence, as the MLBPA filed a grievance against the Marlins, Rays, Pirates, and Athletics in February 2018 based on the union’s stance that the clubs were simply pocketing a good deal of their revenue-sharing money, rather than reinvesting those funds towards player payroll.  Rosenthal and his Athletic colleague Evan Drellich recently noted that that grievance was still pending in an adjusted form, though the most recent CBA saw the minimum spend rise from 125 percent to its current 150 percent figure.

The revenue-sharing minimum drew more of a spotlight this winter when the A’s started to increase their payroll, which was viewed as the team trying to hit that $105MM tax number and avoid any heat from the players’ union.  The Athletics’ situation is a little different since their revenue-sharing status was reduced in the earlier years of the CBA while the team was looking for a new ballpark, and they are now back to receiving a full-fledged share of revenue-sharing funds in 2025.

The Marlins have generally been among the lowest-spending teams in baseball for most of their history, and spanning multiple ownership groups.  Bruce Sherman’s purchase of the Marlins in 2017 was initially viewed as a possible light at the end of the payroll tunnel, though the sudden departure of CEO Derek Jeter prior to the 2022 season threw a wrench into that perception, especially since payroll expenditures were reportedly one of several sources of disagreement between Sherman and Jeter.

Miami did elevate spending a bit under GM Kim Ng and the team made the playoffs in 2023, but Sherman’s desire for a better farm system led to Ng’s departure after that season, and the hiring of Peter Bendix as the Marlins’ new president of baseball operations.  Taking a page from Bendix’s former team in Tampa Bay, the Marlins seem to be moving towards a Rays-esque model of relying on a strong minor league pipeline to build their rosters, while only modestly spending on payrolls.  Bendix’s arrival kickstarted yet another rebuild, as the Marlins have dealt several of their more experienced and higher-priced players over the last year.

As much as the Athletics’ winter moves were made with the revenue-sharing number in mind, acquiring Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, and Gio Urshela are also sensible from an on-field standpoint, given the club’s needs in the rotation and at third base.  Considering that the A’s played solid baseball over the last three months of the 2024 season, the West Sacramento team might even have some darkhorse potential as a wild card contender if everything breaks right and the Athletics get another breakout or two from younger players.

The Marlins are in a different situation.  While there is some interesting talent on the roster, it is very hard to imagine Miami contending in 2025, nor does contending seem to be in the front office’s plans within the near future as Bendix focused on overhauling the player development system.

Spending $22.2MM to get up to the $105MM threshold likely won’t translate, therefore, in any additions that will help Miami win ballgames in 2025.  The Marlins could add a couple of lower-cost veterans on one-year deals, with an eye towards potentially trading those players at the deadline once the majority of their salaries have been officially tallied onto the team’s tax bill.  With a nod towards the Marlins’ goal of restocking the farm system, Bendix could potentially look into trading for a bad contract or two from another team, with that other team adding some prospects as a sweetener to further entice Miami into absorbing most or all of the money owed.

Unsurprisingly, Bendix didn’t provide many details on the Marlins’ spending plans, telling the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson and other reporters this week that “I’m not going to comment on what we might or might not do.  Bruce continues to give us all the resources we need to build this franchise for sustainable success.”

Bendix also didn’t entirely close the door on the possibility that Sandy Alcantara could be traded, saying that “We never rule out anything.  We listen to everything.”  That said, Alcantara was told back in August that he probably wasn’t getting dealt this offseason, and Bendix noted that “Sandy is a really important piece for our organization.  I’m really excited to see him pitch on Opening Day.”

Alcantara is the highest-paid player on Miami’s roster, as the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner is owed $17MM in each of the next two seasons, plus there is a $21MM club option ($2MM buyout) on his services for 2027.  This salary has naturally made Alcantara the subject of continued trade rumors, even though Alcantara didn’t pitch in 2024 due to Tommy John surgery.

Obviously the Marlins wouldn’t be trading the right-hander for a maximum return in the wake of this injury, which is why a deal this winter remains unlikely.  If Bendix was to sell low on Alcantara now only to see him rebound to ace form in the early part of the 2025 season, that’ll count as a missed opportunity to gain the biggest possible trade package for the Marlins’ biggest remaining trade chip.  Miami’s payroll might also factor into the equation here, as Rosenthal notes that trading Alcantara would leave the Marlins even further away from the $105MM revenue-sharing threshold.

Just as Bendix isn’t likely to openly state that Alcantara is available in trade talks, the PBO also isn’t likely to entirely shut down any offers because of basic due diligence.  Bendix surely doesn’t want to limit options just in case a pitching-needy team actually is willing to part with a premium return for a pitcher coming off a lost season.

NL East Notes: Phillies, Harper, Finnegan, Alcantara

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The Phillies are known to be looking for outfield help this winter, though moving Bryce Harper from first base back into the outfield doesn’t appear to be a consideration.  Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer wonders if the Phils could possibly re-evaluate this stance, as Lauber feels the first base market (for both free agents and trade possibilities) is much deeper than this winter’s outfield market.  Of the top outfielders in free agency, Juan Soto seems likely to be going to one of the other big-market clubs, while Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander each have the strikeout or chase rate issues that the Phillies are already looking to correct within their current lineup.  Philadelphia did have interest in Hernandez back at the 2023 trade deadline when the slugger was still a member of the Mariners, but Lauber notes that the Phils passed on Hernandez under the similar logic that Hernandez’s power wouldn’t offset his tendency to swing and miss.

Harper’s first full season as a first baseman was a success, as he posted strong defensive numbers and kept up his usual high standards at the plate.  These results have understandably left all parties satisfied with just keeping Harper at the cold corner, though Harper has expressed an openness to playing the outfield again and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski didn’t entirely close the door on the possibility (“I can’t say that we’d never do it, but it’s not something that we are thinking of or wanting to do“) when discussing the subject at the GM Meetings last month.

If Harper did return to his old spot in right field, Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas would likely become the Phillies’ new center field platoon, and Nick Castellanos would presumably be shifted over to left field.  This arrangement wouldn’t exactly make for the strongest defensive outfield, even if the Phillies tried to balance out the situation by adding a stronger defender at first base.  Trading Castellanos to clear space in the outfield might be the ideal outcome, though that is obviously easier said than done considering the two years and $40MM remaining on the veteran’s contract.

More from the NL East…

  • Before the Nationals parted ways with Kyle Finnegan, the two parties at least had some talks about a new contract prior to the non-tender deadline, but the Washington Post’s Andrew Golden hears from a source that “the sides were not close to making a deal to avoid arbitration.”  Finnegan was projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to earn $8.6MM in his final year of arb eligibility, as traditional counting stats like saves (Finnegan had 28 saves in 2023 and 38 saves in 2024) tend to boost a reliever’s arbitration salaries by a significant degree, regardless of Finnegan’s otherwise rather shaky secondary metrics.  It seems as though the Nationals would’ve been open to retaining the closer at a lower number, but ultimately weren’t comfortable retaining Finnegan and possibly facing a higher salary via arbitration hearing if the Nats couldn’t have potentially traded Finnegan at some later date this offseason.
  • Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2023, and after over a year of recovery and rehab, the Marlins ace appears to be making good progress towards a return.  In a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (link to X), manager Clayton McCullough said he met with Alcantara within the last week and “he looked great, he sounded great, felt like he was really right on track at this point….All signs point to things looking very positive for the start of the season.”  The winner of the 2022 NL Cy Young Award, Alcantara threw more innings than any other pitcher in baseball over the 2019-2022 seasons as the anchor of the Marlins’ pitching staff, before that workload seemingly caught up to him late in the 2023 campaign.  Since Alcantara is owed at least $36MM over the last two years of his contract, some trade buzz will be inevitable if he looks like his old self at the start of 2025, though the rebuilding Marlins already told Alcantara last summer that they likely weren’t trading him this offseason.

Marlins Do Not Intend To Trade Sandy Alcantara In Offseason

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The Marlins have informed Sandy Alcantara that they will not trade him during the upcoming offseason, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (X link). Mish writes that the Fish are hopeful that the 2022 NL Cy Young winner will be ready to take the ball for them on Opening Day.

Alcantara missed this entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. That was the first major blow in what has turned out to be a very difficult 12 months at loanDepot Park. Eury Pérez went down with a Tommy John procedure of his own a week into the ’24 season. The Marlins got 12 inconsistent starts out of Jesús Luzardo; his season is over due to a stress reaction in his back. A finger injury has interrupted what might have been a step forward from Ryan Weathers. Lefty Braxton Garrett is currently down with a flexor strain and has made all of seven starts. Edward Cabrera lost a couple months in the first half.

A rotation with a fully healthy Alcantara, Luzardo, Pérez, Garrett and Weathers would probably be a top 10 group in MLB. The Marlins have instead lost them all for significant chunks of the season. Between that brutal stretch of starting pitching injuries and one of the worst lineups in the majors, the Marlins have had a nightmare of a year. They started 0-9, never got back to .500, and are fully amidst a rebuild. Miami shipped out Jazz Chisholm Jr., Luis Arraez, Josh Bell, Trevor Rogers, Tanner Scott, Bryan De La Cruz and a few others as part of a roster overhaul. First-year president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has begun to reshape the front office, and it’s widely believed that manager Skip Schumaker and the organization could part ways at season’s end.

That upheaval means there aren’t many players whom the Marlins would probably steadfastly refuse to discuss in trade talks. That said, it never seemed especially likely they’d deal Alcantara next winter. He’s rehabbing a major arm procedure that at least clouds his trade value. While there’d surely still be interest if the Marlins shopped him, other teams would presumably want to price in some kind of discount in case Alcantara doesn’t regain his pre-surgery form.

There’s little reason for the Marlins to entertain diminished trade offers. Miami signed Alcantara to a $56MM extension the year before his Cy Young campaign. He’s under contract for another two seasons and the team holds an option for 2027. Alcantara is making $9MM this year. His salaries will jump to $17MM annually for the next two seasons; the option is valued at $21MM and comes with a $2MM buyout. (He’d also receive a $1MM assignment bonus if the Marlins trade him at any point.) From here forward, it’s a two-year, $36MM guarantee that comes with a third-year club option.

Despite the surgery, that’s good value for a pitcher of Alcantara’s caliber. Bounceback starters like Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty and Luis Severino signed for between $13MM and $16MM in free agency last offseason. They all inked one-year deals, but that allowed them all to retest free agency in search of a much bigger contract if they returned to form. Alcantara is coming from a higher baseline than that trio of pitchers. If he looks anything like his old self, the final guaranteed season and the club option would be well below market value.

It’s a relatively costly commitment by Miami’s standards, but the Marlins have little else on the books next year. They owe the already released Avisaíl García $17MM between his $12MM salary and a $5MM buyout on his 2026 option. They’re responsible for $10MM annually to the Yankees between 2026-28 on the Giancarlo Stanton contract. Minor league reliever Woo-Suk Go, who is owed $2.75MM next season between his salary and a ’26 option buyout, is the only other player on a guaranteed deal beyond this season.

Luzardo, Jesús Sánchez and Garrett headline what’ll be a relatively light arbitration class. The Fish aren’t likely to do much in free agency after spending all of $5MM last winter on a one-year deal for Tim Anderson. Even with Alcantara’s salary rising by $8MM, they could open next season with a lower player payroll than their approximate $92MM mark this year (calculated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts).

If Alcantara performs well in the first half, he could be one of the most in-demand players at next summer’s deadline. Even if all their starters come back healthy, Miami will be hard-pressed to compete barring a major lineup overhaul. The Marlins still may not want to move Alcanatara with the amount of time remaining on his deal, but that’d be a more interesting question for the front office than it would to sell low on him over the offseason.

NL East Notes: Alcantara, Robles, McNeil

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Injured Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara took a major step forward in his rehab from Tommy John surgery today, as The Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson notes that the right-hander played catch this afternoon, marking the first time he’s thrown a baseball since going under the knife back in October. While that still leaves Alcantara a long way from a return to the mound, manager Skip Schumaker seemed optimistic regarding the 28-year-old’s rehab process as he noted to reporters that Alcantara is “probably three or four weeks ahead of schedule.”

Even with Alcantara potentially as much as a month ahead of schedule, it’s still all but guaranteed that he won’t pitch in the majors during the 2024 season. While he first went on the shelf on September 6 with a flexor strain, he wasn’t diagnosed with a UCL sprain until the following week and was only shut down for the season on September 23 before undergoing surgery shortly thereafter. Even the most favorable estimates for a return to the mound following Tommy John surgery require at least a year of rehab, and it seems unlikely that the Marlins would have any interest in rushing Alcantara back to the mound. While the right-hander had a down season in 2023 with a rather pedestrian 4.14 ERA in 28 starts, his incredible 2022 campaign saw him post a sterling 2.28 ERA with a 2.99 FIP while leading the majors with 228 1/3 innings pitched.

While Alcantara being ahead of schedule won’t have an impact on the Marlins in 2024, it’s a positive sign for his odds of being ready to pitch come Opening Day 2025. In the meantime, the club figures to rely on the likes of Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera in 2024. The Marlins reportedly fielded trade offers on some of their young rotation arms this winter, and while a deal didn’t ultimately come together, it remains at least possible that the club will ship one or more pitchers out from its rotation mix before Alcantara returns to the mound in 2025, whether that be ahead of this summer’s trade deadline or at some point next offseason.

More from around the NL East…

  • Nationals center fielder Victor Robles left today’s game early due to hamstring tightness, as noted by MASN’s Bobby Blanco. Manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Blanco) after the game that Robles was dealing with a “knot” in his hamstring after being hit by a pitch in that area during a game against the Marlins earlier this week. Robles, 27 in May, was once a consensus top-5 prospect in the entire sport but has struggled to establish himself at the big league level. He was off to a hot start last year before his 2023 campaign was cut short by injury, leaving him to appear in just 36 games all season. Headed into 2024, Robles appears to be the favorite for regular reps in center field, though Martinez suggested previously that 24-year-old rookie Jacob Young would have the opportunity to earn playing time in center.
  • Mets manager Carlos Mendoza indicated to reporters, including Andrew Crane of the New York Post, recently that infielder Jeff McNeil remains at least a week away from receiving any sort of game action this spring. McNeil suffered a partially torn UCL in his left arm back in September and spent the offseason rehabbing the injury, which has caused the club to proceed with caution regarding a bout of left biceps soreness that first cropped up last week, though McNeil had already not appeared in Grapefruit League games yet since camp opened last month. That said, Crane adds that McNeil made some progress recently when he took dry swings early today without any pain in his biceps. Once healthy, McNeil will look to rebound as the Mets’ starting second baseman in 2024 on the heels of a 2023 campaign that saw the two-time All Star slash a pedestrian .270/.333/.378 in 648 trips to the plate.

Marlins Sign Tim Anderson

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TODAY: The Marlins have officially announced Anderson’s signing.  Sandy Alcantara (who will miss all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery) was placed on the 60-day injured list to create a 40-man roster spot for Anderson.

FEBRUARY 22: The Marlins and free agent shortstop Tim Anderson are in agreement on a one-year, $5MM contract, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The deal is pending a physical. Anderson is repped by Excel Sports Management.

Anderson, 30, was arguably the best shortstop in a very weak middle infield class. A two-time All-Star and 2019 batting champ, he looked like one of the better shortstops in the majors as recently as a season ago. He’s coming off the worst year of his career, though, as he struggled to a .245/.286/.296 batting line in 524 plate appearances. Anderson connected on just one home run.

While his offensive profile has never been driven primarily by power, he reached double digits in homers each year between 2017-21. That dropped to six homers in a 2022 season cut short by a ligament tear in his left middle finger, although he still managed a .301/.339/.395 slash. His entire offensive profile plummeted last season.

Anderson struck out in 23.3% of his plate appearances, his highest rate since 2018. He put more than three-fifths of his batted balls on the ground, a personal-high clip. That led to his worst average and on-base marks since 2018 in addition to the lowest power production of his career.

That led the White Sox to buy Anderson out for $1MM in lieu of a $14MM club option, ending a strong eight-year run on Chicago’s South Side. General manager Chris Getz has kicked off at least an abbreviated rebuild, bringing in Paul DeJong on a modest $1.75MM free agent deal to solidify the defense.

Anderson has increasingly struggled on that side of the ball as well. By measure of Defensive Runs Saved, he has rated a combined 23 runs below average over the past two seasons. Only Bobby Witt Jr. has a lower total at the position. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric hasn’t been nearly as bearish, grading Anderson slightly below par in both years. It’s possible that lower body injuries have played a role in that downturn. Over the past three seasons, he has missed time with a left hamstring strain, a right groin strain, and a sprained left knee (in addition to the aforementioned finger injury).

The veteran infielder expressed a willingness to move to the other side of the second base bag. That won’t be necessary in Miami, which has sought shortstop help throughout the winter. The Fish let Joey Wendle depart after a lackluster 2023 campaign. Jon Berti is best suited in a utility role, while none of Xavier Edwards, Jacob Amaya or Vidal Bruján is established at the MLB level.

Miami has a two-time batting champ, Luis Arraez, at the keystone. The up-the-middle pairing of Anderson and Arraez isn’t likely to be a great defensive group, but there’s significant offensive upside if Anderson rebounds. Between 2019-22, Anderson had an excellent .318/.347/.473 line in more than 1600 trips to the plate. Among hitters with at least 2000 plate appearances over the past five seasons, he’s still third in batting average. Arraez leads the way at .326, while only Freddie Freeman (.315) also stands above Anderson, who has hit .300 since 2019.

It’s a fairly inexpensive pickup for the Fish on what is remarkably their first major league free agent deal of the offseason. That means it’s also the first MLB contract for new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix, who has presided over a quiet winter in South Florida. Ever present payroll constraints contributed to Miami’s decision to let Jorge Soler walk after a 36-homer season. They haven’t replaced Soler at DH or addressed the rotation in response to Sandy Alcantara’s Tommy John surgery, but Anderson brings a higher ceiling than last year’s collection of shortstops.

Roster Resource calculates the team’s player payroll around $100MM. That’s above last season’s approximate $93MM season-opening mark but still places them firmly in the league’s bottom third in spending. Miami will need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move once the signing is finalized, but that’ll likely be accomplished by placing Alcantara on the 60-day injured list.

If Anderson returns to form, he’ll have a shot at a better multi-year deal a year from now. He’ll return to free agency next winter in advance of his age-32 season. Willy Adames headlines what otherwise looks like another weak group of free agent shortstops. Gleyber Torres will be the top second baseman, while Anderson and Amed Rosario (who signed a $1.5MM deal with Tampa Bay this week) are the most interesting rebound candidates.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: The Mets’ Front Office, TJ for Alcantara and the D-Backs Extend Their GM

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • What does Atlanta do with Vaughn Grissom? (14:00)
  • Where should the Phillies put Bryce Harper next year? (16:25)
  • What do the White Sox do if they intend to compete next year? (19:10)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Mariners To Spend? Tigers To Contend? And Managerial Vacancies – listen here​
  • Free Agent Pitching Dark Horses, Padres To Cut Payroll, and If The Angels Should Rebuild — listen here
  • Front Office Changes in Boston and New York, and the New Rays Stadium Agreement — listen here

Sandy Alcantara Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Marlins star Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery, he announced on Instagram. The procedure, performed by Dr. Keith Meister, occurred this morning. He’ll miss the entire 2024 season.

“With a heavy heart, I want to let everyone know I had Tommy John surgery today and will miss next season,” the 2022 NL Cy Young winner wrote as part of a statement. “I am most saddened for the great Marlins fans, who were so supportive of me and the team this year. The drive to the playoffs was thrilling for all of us.”

While the Marlins hadn’t indicated that surgery was on the table, it’s not an especially surprising development. Alcantara’s season was cut short last month. He landed on the injured list on September 6 with what the team initially diagnosed as a flexor strain. That was later revised to a UCL sprain, indicating some measure of tearing within the elbow ligament. With the Fish making a playoff push, Alcantara tried to return at season’s end. He threw four innings in a Triple-A rehab outing but reported additional forearm discomfort coming out of that appearance. Miami shut him down at that point.

The Fish were able to get into the postseason even without Alcantara contributing in the last few weeks. After being swept in the Wild Card round by the Phillies, they’ll go into the offseason looking for ways to build off this year’s promise. That’ll be quite a bit more difficult without one of the sport’s preeminent workhorses.

No pitcher has thrown more innings than Alcantara’s 619 over the last three seasons. Only Gerrit Cole has taken a heavier workload going back to the start of 2019. Alcantara handily leads the majors in complete games over the last three years, finishing off 10 starts. No other pitcher has gone the distance more than six times.

The two-time All-Star combines that MLB-best volume with outstanding rate production. He posted a sub-4.00 ERA every year from 2019-22, highlighted by a sterling 2.28 earned runs allowed per nine last season. He was unanimously voted the Senior Circuit’s top pitcher. Alcantara wasn’t as dominant this year, though he turned in another effective season overall. In 28 starts, he worked to a 4.14 ERA behind a 52% grounder rate while averaging over six and a half innings per appearance.

At this time last year, the Marlins had an embarrassment of riches on the mound. That contributed to their decision to deal Pablo López for Luis Arraez in an effort to balance the roster. Miami has to be thrilled with what they received from Arraez in his first season in South Florida. While they still have a good rotation, its depth has taken some notable hits.

Trevor Rogers made just four starts, none after April, because of a left biceps strain and a partial tear in his right (non-throwing) lat muscle. Prospect Jake Eder was dealt midseason for third baseman Jake Burger. Hard-throwing righty Edward Cabrera walked over 15% of major league opponents and was demoted to Triple-A for a month midseason. He managed a 4.24 ERA behind a strong 27.3% strikeout percentage. Miami’s starting staff ranked 9th in the majors in ERA (4.10), an effective yet hardly dominant result.

Left-handers Jesús Luzardo and Braxton Garrett each topped 30 starts with sub-4.00 ERA showings. Top prospect Eury Pérez worked to a 3.15 ERA while striking out nearly 29% of batters faced in 19 outings as a rookie. They project as the top three in next year’s staff, likely followed by Cabrera and Rogers. Former #3 overall pick Max Meyer should be ready for Spring Training after missing all of this year working back from Tommy John surgery of his own.

There’s significant ceiling in that group, but only Luzardo and Garrett have shouldered a full big league workload within the last two seasons. The club could be cautious with innings counts for any of Pérez, Rogers or Meyer. Ryan Weathers and Bryan Hoeing currently stand as the top depth options.

It seems likely Miami will bring in a veteran arm to add some stability to the group. They hoped that last winter’s signing of Johnny Cueto to an $8.5MM free agent deal would lock in serviceable back-of-the-rotation innings. Cueto didn’t meet expectations and is headed back to the open market. GM Kim Ng and her staff could look for a similar addition this time around.

Alcantara will count against the 40-man roster throughout the offseason. Miami can place him on the 60-day injured list at the beginning of Spring Training. As part of the extension he signed in November 2021, he’ll make $9MM next season. Alcantara is under contract for $17MM annually between 2025-26. Miami has a $21MM option or a $2MM buyout for the ’27 season.

Sandy Alcantara Shut Down For Rest Of 2023 Season

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TODAY: Unsurprisingly, Alcantara confirmed today that he won’t pitch again in 2023.  “That’s the thing that broke my heart.  I won’t be able to go out there with my teammates and compete….Hopefully we make it to the playoffs without me. [I’ve] just gotta be here and support them,” Alcantara told Jordan McPherson and Andre C. Fernandez of the Miami Herald.

The Cy Young Award winner said that he and his agent haven’t yet met with Marlins management to discuss what’s next, whether that’s more rehab or whether or not Alcantara might require some kind of surgery.

SEPTEMBER 22: Defending NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara has been on the injured list since September 6. He was diagnosed with a sprain in the UCL of his throwing elbow last week but had still been attempting to make it back for the team’s playoff push.

Alcantara made a rehab outing with Triple-A Jacksonville last night. He got through four scoreless innings but informed the team after the game that he’d experienced renewed forearm tightness (relayed by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). He’ll likely be pulled off his rehab stint and rejoin the team this weekend while remaining on the IL.

The club hasn’t announced a timetable or the next steps in Alcantara’s recovery. They’ll surely proceed with caution with the star right-hander, which raises the question of whether they could decide to shut him down for the season. While Alcantara and the team clearly hoped he’d be able to pitch through the injury, the diagnosis of a UCL sprain inherently means there’s some degree of stretching or tearing in that ligament.

Alcantara hasn’t replicated last year’s success, when he threw an MLB-high 228 2/3 innings with a sterling 2.28 ERA. He has still been an effective rotation member for the Fish, allowing 4.14 earned runs per nine across 184 2/3 frames. Alcantara owns a 3.20 ERA since the All-Star Break while averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per start.

Miami has been without Trevor Rogers for the majority of the season. They’re relying on Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, highly-touted rookie Eury Pérez and Edward Cabrera in the rotation. They turned to a bullpen game for the final spot in today’s series opener with the Brewers. That hasn’t worked, with Steven Okert and Bryan Hoeing tagged for a combined 12 runs before getting out of the second inning.

A loss tonight will drop the Fish a game behind the Cubs for the last Wild Card spot in the National League. The Reds could jump a half-game ahead of Miami if they beat the Pirates. Miami will turn to Luzardo and Cabrera for the final two games against the Brew Crew. They’re off on Monday before finishing their season with road games in six consecutive days against the Mets and Pirates.

Sandy Alcantara To Make Rehab Start Tonight

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Reigning National League Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara was diagnosed with a UCL sprain earlier this month, but he’s set to make a rehab start in Triple-A Jacksonville tonight, the team announced. Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald, who first reported that Alcantara would start in Jacksonville tonight, tweets that Alcantara has had multiple pain-free bullpen sessions. If things go well in tonight’s rehab appearance, it would seem there’s a real chance that Alcantara could return to the active roster before the end of the season.

It’s surely welcome news for Fish fans, though also perhaps the source of some trepidation. With any injury to the ulnar collateral ligament — the ligament that is replaced in Tommy John surgery — there’s concern of a potential yearlong absence in a worst-case scenario. The majority of UCL injuries tend to result in surgery, though that’s certainly not a universal outcome. Masahiro Tanaka, Ervin Santana, Aaron Nola and Anthony DeSclafani are among the pitchers who have been diagnosed with UCL injuries but avoided surgery. The 28-year-old Alcantara will hope to add his name to that list.

It’s been a tough year for the Miami ace so far. Alcantara has taken the ball 28 times and eaten up 184 2/3 innings, but his 4.14 ERA is nearly two full runs higher than the 2.28 mark that fueled last year’s Cy Young win. Alcantara hasn’t experienced a velocity drop, but his strikeout rate, walk rate, ground-ball rate and home run rate are all worse than in 2022’s career-best season. He’s also given up hard contact at higher levels.

With Alcantara on the shelf, the Marlins have been using Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera and the returning Eury Perez — who’d previously been optioned to the minors to monitor his workload — as their regular starters. Reliever Bryan Hoeing took the ball this past weekend, tossing 4 1/3 innings in his first start since early July. Miami’s starter for tomorrow’s series opener against the Brewers is currently listed as TBD.

The Marlins don’t have any shot at winning the division. The Braves sport MLB’s best record and clinched the NL East some time ago. However, Miami is only a half game out of the third Wild Card spot in the National League. They’re trailing the Cubs for that spot and are one game up on the Reds in the standings. This weekend’s series against the Brewers is a tough task — particularly with Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta lined up to start for Milwaukee — but the Fish close out the season with seven games against the Mets and Pirates, who currently share identical 71-81 records. The Cubs finish with three games in Atlanta and three in Milwaukee. The Reds’ final games will be against the Pirates, Guardians and Cardinals.

Sandy Alcantara Diagnosed With UCL Sprain

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Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara was placed on the injured list a week ago, with his injury described at that time as a right forearm flexor strain. Manager Skip Schumaker today told Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald that an MRI revealed Alcantara has a sprain of his ulnar collateral ligament. It seems the club hasn’t ruled out a return this season from the righty, who played catch today, per McPherson. “Watching him throw is a good thing,” Schumaker said. “It’s a progression. We’re going to watch it every day and go from there.”

The club hasn’t announced the severity of the sprain, though the fact that they are holding out hope of him returning later this year perhaps indicates it is on the mild side. A sprain of the UCL can be a precursor to an extremely significant result like Tommy John surgery, though not in all cases. Phillies prospect Andrew Painter was diagnosed with a UCL sprain earlier this year and did ultimately require Tommy John, though Mason Miller of the Athletics was diagnosed with a mild UCL sprain in May and returned to the A’s about four months later.

It seems that a lot is still to be determined about the steps forward. Earlier today, a report at the Herald from McPherson, Craig Mish and Barry Jackson relayed that the next steps are still being worked out. Alcantara is now apparently pain-free and could return to the club in a week if that continues to be the case. But there’s also another path wherein he would be shut down for four to six weeks and then re-evaluated in October.

It’s difficult to overstate the importance of a pitcher like Alcantara to the Marlins, even though his results have taken a step back from last year’s. He was crowned with the National League Cy Young award after posting a 2.28 earned run average over 228 2/3 innings in 2022. His ERA has ticked up to 4.14 this year, though he’s largely gotten back on track after a rough start, registering a 3.04 ERA since July 3.

In spite of Alcantara not quite being his most dominant self this year, the Marlins are having one of their best seasons in years. They are currently 74-71, putting them a game and a half back of a Wild Card spot in the National League. The last time the Marlins made the playoffs in a full season was 20 years ago, back in 2003.

Without Alcantara, the club’s rotation currently consists of Jesús Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett and Johnny Cueto. There’s a lot of upside in that group but it would naturally be even better with a healthy and effective Alcantara in the mix.

More information will surely be revealed in the weeks to come, with a wide range of outcomes seemingly possible, from Alcantara returning in a week to him being shut down for the year.

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