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Yankees Interested In Walker Buehler

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The Yankees and right-hander Walker Buehler have “some mutual interest” in each other, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi.  New York joins the Braves and Athletics as teams already publicly linked to Buehler in the first few weeks of free agency.

The added wrinkle of the Yankees’ pursuit, of course, is that Buehler delivered some of the best moments of his career against the Bronx Bombers during this year’s World Series.  Buehler tossed five shutout innings in the Dodgers’ 4-2 win over the Yankees in Game 3, and followed up that strong start by getting the save in the scoreless ninth inning of Game 5, as Buehler threw the final pitches that sealed the Dodgers’ championship.

Those clutch performances (and four more innings of shutout ball against the Mets in Game 3 of the NLCS) helped bring a happy ending to an otherwise difficult season for the 30-year-old righty.  Buehler missed all of 2023 recovering from his second Tommy John surgery, and returned to post a 5.38 ERA over 16 starts and 75 1/3 innings for Los Angeles during the regular season.  Pretty much all of Buehler’s secondary numbers and metrics were down from his career norms, including an 18.6% strikeout rate that ranked only in the 16th percentile of all pitchers.

It isn’t uncommon for any pitcher returning from a TJ procedure to initially struggle against big league hitters, even if Buehler has the extra baggage of both his 2022 surgery and the surgery he underwent soon after being drafted by the Dodgers in 2015.  Nathan Eovaldi and Daniel Hudson are two of the more prominent examples of pitchers who continued to have success after returning from two Tommy John surgeries, but obviously there’s some risk attached to Buehler going forward, even if the upside is clearly also present.

MLBTR projected Buehler to sign a one-year, $15MM deal this offseason, with the reasoning that he would seek out a pillow contract for 2025 and then quickly return to the market next winter after (hopefully) posting some front-of-the-rotation numbers.  Any number of teams could potentially be fits for Buehler on such a short-term deal, though presumably he would prefer pitching for a contender.

New York fits that description, and the Yankees are at least monitoring the free agent pitching market given reports noting their interest in Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell, and Sean Manaea.  The Bombers have the resources to broadly check in on basically any free agent at least out of due diligence, and the perception is that the club is prioritizing re-signing Juan Soto before any other bigger-ticket offseason business.

Signing Buehler to a one-year deal might not necessarily count as “bigger-ticket” in comparison to those other frontline pitchers who will command hefty multi-year contracts.  Any additions to the rotation, however, would seemingly necessitate a trade since the Yankees already have six rotation candidates on the roster in Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes, Marcus Stroman, and reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.  Cortes or Stroman are the likeliest trade candidates if New York does indeed add another starter, and moving pitching could allow the Yankees to address other needs in the lineup or bullpen.

A’s Have Shown Interest In Walker Buehler

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The Athletics entered the 2024-25 offseason without a single guaranteed contract on the books for 2025 and a tiny arbitration class, putting them in an odd position. On the one hand, that leaves considerable resources to add to the roster, even by their minimal payroll standards. On the other, persuading free agents to sign with a club that’s going to play the next several seasons in a Triple-A park will be a tall order. The A’s apparently have indeed been out there in the market, as manager Mark Kotsay acknowledged when speaking at this week’s Sports Business Administration Summit at USC that his club has been in contact with right-hander Walker Buehler (X link via Michael J. Duarte of NBC Los Angeles).

A match between the two parties doesn’t feel particularly likely. USC’s Kasey Kazliner adds that Kotsay suggested Buehler was not inclined to play in West Sacramento next season. That’s sure to be a common theme among free agents with any sort of strong market. The A’s will likely have to overpay to persuade free agents, as they did a few years back when handing out multi-year deals to utilitymen Aledmys Diaz and Jace Peterson (neither of which panned out well).

Even with a match unlikely, the Athletics’ interest in Buehler is of some note. It at least signals some intent to shop in a more expensive portion of the free agent pool than they did when signing players like Peterson, Diaz, Drew Rucinski and Shintaro Fujinami in recent offseasons. Buehler isn’t one of the top free agent arms on the market necessarily, but he’ll be a popular target in the second or third tier as clubs eye a potential rebound to the front-of-the-rotation form he showed earlier in his career, before missing the 2023 season while mending from his second Tommy John surgery.

Buehler’s regular season return in 2024 was decidedly sub-par. He pitched 75 1/3 innings with an ugly 5.38 ERA and career-worst strikeout and walk rates: 18.6% and 8.1%, respectively. His average four-seam fastball was 95 mph, about 1.4 mph down from its prior peak. His 8.2% swinging-strike rate ranked 190th among the 204 pitchers who pitched at least 70 innings in 2024 (starter or reliever).

Despite those struggles, injuries elsewhere on the staff thrust Buehler onto the postseason roster. His playoff run got out to a brutal start, as the Padres shelled him for six runs in five innings in his first appearance. It was smooth sailing from there. Buehler pitched 10 more shutout innings with a 13-to-4 K/BB ratio. That includes five shutout frames in Game 3 of the World Series. As fans surely remember, just 48 hours after that five-inning start in Game 3, Buehler came out of the ’pen to set down Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells and Alex Verdugo in order, earning a save as he clinched the Dodgers’ World Series championship. It wasn’t the heart of the Yankees’ order, but a World Series-clinching save on 48 hours’ rest is still quite the way to finish out a season.

Buehler’s postseason heroics have left a lasting impression on many fans and pundits, though it’s unclear if big league clubs feel the same. Today’s front offices aren’t typically swayed by a small sample of big-game excellence. At season’s end, Buehler looked like a candidate for a modest one-year deal. That was true even through his first postseason start. Will scoreless starts of four and five innings, plus one gutty relief outing to close out the championship substantially increase his earning power? It seems unlikely. The Dodgers, who know Buehler best of all and are in need of pitching themselves, declined to make him a $21.05MM qualifying offer.

It’s possible that Buehler’s pre-surgery excellence and memorable postseason finish spark some interest on relatively modest multi-year deals. The likelier path to a big free agent payday, however, would be a deal that affords him the opportunity to return to the market next season. Perhaps he could follow the Sean Manaea/Ross Stripling/Andrew Heaney mold and land a two-year pact in the mid-$20MMs with an opt-out provision. Many clubs, however, will view Buehler similarly to Jack Flaherty last offseason and hope to land him on a one-year pact with a solid salary. (Flaherty signed for $14MM.) The Braves are among the teams reported to have interest.

As for the A’s themselves, they’ll presumably bring in rotation help one way or another. JP Sears currently sits atop the staff, but there’s not much certainty thereafter. Last year’s Rule 5 pick, Mitch Spence, tossed 151 innings with a 4.58 ERA, good command and below-average strikeout numbers. Right-hander Joey Estes totaled 127 2/3 frames with even better command but even lower strikeout numbers and a 5.01 ERA. Righty J.T. Ginn had similar rate stats to both and a 4.24 ERA in a smaller sample of 34 innings. Twenty-nine-year-old swingman Osvaldo Bido mopped up 63 1/3 innings with a 3.41 ERA, a strong 24.3% strikeout rate and an ugly 10% walk rate. Flamethrowing righty Joe Boyle sat 98 mph with his heater but posted a 6.42 ERA while walking 17.7% of his opponents in 47 2/3 innings (10 starts). Lefties Hogan Harris and Brady Basso both made a handful of starts in 2024, but both are already 27 and posted more concerning numbers in the minors. The A’s will need some form of rotation help — it’s just a matter of whether they can sway some veteran starters to sign on in West Sacramento or whether they’ll need to pursue more help via trade.

Free Agent Faceoff: Max Scherzer/Walker Buehler

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Three years ago today, the results of voting for 2021’s NL Cy Young award were announced. The top of the ballot featured a somewhat controversial battle between the elite rate production of then-Brewers ace Corbin Burnes and the volume offered by Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, with Burnes ultimately taking home the trophy. Finishing just below them in balloting, however, was a pair of hurlers from the playoff rotation that took the Dodgers to the NLCS: right-handers Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler.

Flash forward three years, and things have gone quite well for the first- and second-place finishers for that year’s Cy Young in the NL. Burnes enters this winter as the consensus top free agent pitcher available and could be in line for a guarantee that reaches $200MM, while Wheeler opted against returning to the open market in favor of extending with the Phillies on a three-year, $126MM contract earlier this year and now stands as a Cy Young finalist once again alongside Chris Sale and Paul Skenes. Scherzer and Buehler are also headed into free agency this winter, although neither figures to be in line for a nine-figure guarantee like those of Burnes and Wheeler.

Instead, both hurlers figure to enter the open market hoping to re-establish themselves as front-of-the-rotation talents after facing adversity in recent years. Scherzer and Buehler landed the 33rd and 37th spots on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list this winter, as we predicted one-year deals worth $16MM and $15MM respectively for each player. While both hurlers boast ace-level pedigrees and could wind up signing similar contracts this winter, the pair took different paths to get to this point over recent years and their unique challenges and assets could inform the preferences of prospective suitors.

Scherzer’s struggles in recent seasons have been almost entirely about health rather than performance. After turning in 11 utterly dominant starts for the Dodgers down the stretch following a trade from the Nationals at that summer’s trade deadline, the veteran right-hander’s season came to an abrupt end when he was forced out of Game 2 of the NLCS due to a dead arm after just 4 1/3 innings of work. Scherzer was unable to bounce-back in time to pitch again for L.A. in that series and ultimately departed the club on the heels of their loss to the eventual World Champion Braves in the series.

After landing with the Mets on a three-year guarantee worth $130MM, Scherzer turned in a dominant 2022 campaign for New York but was limited to just 23 starts due to oblique issues. It was the fewest starts he had made in a full season during his career, and his 145 1/3 innings of work, while hardly out of the ordinary for a starter in recent years, was similarly a full-season career low. The right-hander bounced back in terms of volume in 2023, making 27 starts for the Mets and Rangers throughout the regular season, but suffered on the performance front as he posted a somewhat middling 3.77 ERA (112 ERA+) in 152 2/3 innings of work. Those results improved significantly (3.20 ERA, 135 ERA+) down the stretch following his trade to Texas, but much like 2021 Scherzer struggled with injuries late in the season and was hampered during the playoffs, ultimately pitching just 9 2/3 innings total during the club’s championship run.

While Scherzer’s declining volume and production were somewhat concerning, the future Hall of Famer was still clearly among the top pitchers in the sport even as he began to struggle with injury. Over those aforementioned two seasons, Scherzer combined for 50 starts where he posted an excellent 3.03 ERA (133 ERA+) with a 3.49 FIP and a 29.3% strikeout rate in 298 innings of work. That performance was good for 6.7 fWAR, good for 23rd among all starters across those two seasons and sandwiched between the likes of Max Fried and Clayton Kershaw.

Unfortunately for the veteran, however, things took a substantial turn for the worse in 2024 as he suffered from the first truly injury-plagued season of his career. After undergoing back surgery last offseason, Scherzer’s was expected to miss at least the first couple of months of action. That timetable was further delayed by nerve issues, and by the time shoulder fatigue brought his season to an early end in September he had made just nine total starts this season. Those nine starts saw Scherzer pitch effectively, though not close to the ace-level production he had flashed even two years prior. In 43 1/3 innings of work this season, he pitched to a 3.95 ERA with a 4.18 FIP, striking out 22.6% of opponents faced while walking just 5.6%.

Looking ahead to 2025, it’s certainly easy to imagine Scherzer providing high quality production whenever he’s on the field, given the league average results he posted while fighting through injury this year and his pedigree as a three-time winner and six-time finalist of the Cy Young award. With that being said, the veteran will celebrate his 41st birthday in July of 2025, and his increasingly detrimental injury woes in recent years leave plenty of questions about just how many starts Scherzer can be counted on for in 2025, particularly in the postseason given the injury questions he faced in 2023, 2021, and even 2019 with the Nationals.

By contrast, Buehler comes with far fewer questions regarding his overall health. That’s to be expected from a player who is a decade and a day Scherzer’s junior. That’s not to say Buehler hasn’t had health issues of his own, of course, as Buehler had nearly two full calendar years of his career wiped out by Tommy John surgery. Buehler returned to the mound for the Dodgers on May 7 of this year after having last pitched in a major league game on June 10 of 2022. The righty has had few injury woes throughout his career aside from his two career elbow surgeries, with a bout of hip inflammation this year and a rib injury back in 2018 representing the only other significant injuries of his big league career.

With that being said, it’s worth noting that the aforementioned Tommy John surgery was actually the second of Buehler’s pitching career. It’s not uncommon for players to struggle after going under the knife a second time, though some pitchers such as Nathan Eovaldi and Jameson Taillon have undergone the procedure twice and gone on to be effective for years following their second surgery. Buehler also averaged 95 mph on his fastball in 2024, an encouraging sign as it’s right in line with his average prior to going under the knife.

That’s not to say Buehler lacks question marks, however. The right-hander’s 2024 season was nothing short of atrocious. He surrendered a 5.38 ERA and 5.54 FIP that were both more than 30% worse than league average by ERA- and FIP-, while his 18.6% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate were both the worst marks of his career since he became a full time player in 2018. While Buehler’s solid 15 innings of work during the playoffs (3.60 ERA, 3.50 FIP) offer some reason for optimism, particularly as he struck out a third of his opponents in the NLCS and World Series, his atrocious regular season results are difficult to ignore. While Scherzer seems to be a reasonable bet to produce when healthy enough to take the mound, Buehler will need to improve his overall production substantially to be an even league average starter next year even as he flashed his front-of-the-rotation upside late in the Dodgers’ championship run this postseason.

If your team was in the market for a bounce-back starter this winter, which would you rather sign? Would you value Scherzer’s strong results and lengthy track record of success when healthy despite his age and injury questions, or would you prefer Buehler’s youth and upside despite his brutal results in 2024?

Which Starter Would You Rather Have For 2025?
Walker Buehler 86.96% (4,810 votes)
Max Scherzer 13.04% (721 votes)
Total Votes: 5,531

Braves Among Teams With Interest In Walker Buehler

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The Braves are among the clubs showing early interest in free agent righty Walker Buehler, reports MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (video link).

Buehler, 30, reached free agency for the first time this winter and, despite a strong finish to his postseason, is generally viewed as a rebound candidate on the heels of a dismal showing in 2024. This past season marked Buehler’s first year back from the second Tommy John surgery of his career, and some rust was quite clear.

After not pitching at all in 2023, Buehler tossed 75 1/3 innings in the big leagues but was tagged for a 5.38 ERA with career-worst strikeout and walk rates of 18.6% and 8.1%, respectively. His four-seamer, which averaged 96.5 mph from 2017-20, clocked in at an average of 95 mph, per Statcast. He entered 2024 with an 11.6% swinging-strike rate but logged an 8.2% mark in 2024 — ranked 190th out of the 204 pitchers who threw at least 70 innings.

The Padres rocked Buehler for six runs across five innings in his first postseason start, but he went out on a high note. In 10 subsequent innings, he was unscored upon, recording a 13-to-4 K/BB ratio in the process. That includes a pair of scoreless starts (four and five innings apiece), and what will go down as a gutsy closing effort in the ninth inning of World Series Game 5, when Buehler finished off the Yankees to clinch L.A.’s championship just 48 hours after he’d started Game 3.

Atlanta’s need for rotation reinforcements is rather clear. The Braves saw Max Fried and Charlie Morton become free agents when the season ended. Spencer Strider likely won’t be ready for Opening Day as he continues rehabbing from last year’s UCL surgery. The Braves’ rotation, as currently constructed, will be headlined by likely Cy Young winner Chris Sale, converted reliever Reynaldo Lopez and 2024 breakout rookie Spencer Schwellenbach. Options for the fourth and fifth spots at the moment include Griffin Canning (acquired for Jorge Soler), Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep and Bryce Elder.

Sale, of course, was dominant in a 2024 season that’s already netted him NL Comeback Player of the Year honors and is all but guaranteed to result in his first career Cy Young Award. But as good as he was in ’24, the lefty will pitch next year at age 36 and only pitched a total of 151 innings in the four-year span prior to this Braves renaissance. It can’t (or shouldn’t) be simply assumed that he’s once again good for 29 to 33 starts annually. Similarly, Lopez was excellent but missed time due to a forearm strain while shattering his own recent workload standards. The Braves surely hope that both will be as effective in 2025 as in 2024 — and as healthy or even healthier — but that’s far from a given.

Some form of rotation supplement is likely, and the Braves typically haven’t spent at the levels likely necessary to retain Fried — at least when it comes to free agents. Most of their long-term deals have focused on players who are either early in arbitration or have not yet reached arbitration. Those contracts all typically begin in a player’s mid- or late-20s. Fried will be 31 next year. A reunion seems unlikely, especially with the Braves likely to pay the luxury tax for a third straight season and with Fried likely to command an annual value north of $25MM. Atlanta would be facing a tax of at least 50% on Fried’s annual value in 2025.

Exactly what type of contract Buehler will command remains unclear. He was at one point one of the game’s promising young aces, pitching 564 innings of 2.82 ERA ball with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate from 2018-21. That version of Buehler hasn’t been seen in three years, however. It’s possible some clubs feel there’s enough upside to guarantee him multiple years right now. A two-year deal with an opt-out feels feasible, and maybe a club would put down a three-year offer with a more modest AAV and hope for a return to form.

It’s notable, though, that the deep-pocketed Dodgers are the team most familiar with Buehler, his medical history and what to expect from his performance moving forward — and they opted against extending a $21.05MM qualifying offer to the right-hander. On the one hand, that’s good news for his market and gives any club signing him to a short-term deal the possibility of recouping draft pick compensation with a QO of their own if Buehler performs well. On the other, the lack of a QO can be construed as a red flag.

If Buehler is amenable to a one-year deal, he fits the broad profile of what the Braves have targeted in free agent starting pitchers. Last offseason’s three-year deal for Lopez was the first time under Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos that the team signed a starter to a multi-year deal — although even that can be viewed as something of an exception. The team expressed interest in trying to stretch Lopez out from the time of his signing, but there was always a possibility he’d return to a bullpen role if the experiment didn’t work. Anthopoulos has been far more willing to put down market-rate AAVs on relievers (in the $8-11MM range) than on conventional starters. Anthopoulos also knows Buehler better than most free agents, given his former role as the vice president of baseball operations in the Dodgers’ front office — a role he held when Buehler was drafted and was on the rise through the Dodgers’ system.

NL West Notes: Gallen, Marte, Ryan, Graterol, Buehler, Brasier, Muncy, Edman

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The Diamondbacks had a couple of injury scares during Saturday’s 11-1 rout over the Phillies, but neither seems to be a serious concern. Two-time All-Star Ketel Marte exited in the fourth inning after hurting his ankle on a play at second base. Thankfully, the team announced after the game that the injury was merely a left ankle contusion, and Marte is unlikely to miss more than a game or two. He told Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic that he hopes to be back in the lineup on Monday. The 30-year-old is enjoying the best offensive season of his career, with 30 home runs, a .932 OPS, and a 153 wRC+ in 113 games. He is also playing Gold Glove-caliber defense at second base, with 7 Outs Above Average and 11 Defensive Runs Saved.

Meanwhile, Zac Gallen was cruising along through 4 1/3 innings, but he appeared to suffer a lower-body injury after throwing his 87th pitch. He was subsequently pulled from the contest. Following the game, however, he told reporters (including Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports) that he had a cramp, and he is not concerned about a serious injury. Gallen, an All-Star and Cy Young finalist in 2023, has a 3.69 ERA this season, and the D-backs have won 12 of his 20 starts.

Over in Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers also had to pull their starting pitcher in the fifth inning. Top prospect River Ryan was through 4 2/3 scoreless against the Pirates when he started shaking his right hand in discomfort. The team later described his injury as “right forearm tightness” (per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). After the game, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Juan Toribio of MLB.com) that Ryan will need an IL stint, and he will get an MRI tomorrow. Until then, the team won’t know how serious the issue is, but the words “forearm tightness” are always worrisome, especially for a hard-throwing young pitcher. Roberts confirmed that Landon Knack will be recalled to take Ryan’s place on the active roster (per Ardaya).

In more positive news, reliever Brusdar Graterol is already playing catch, inspiring hope that he will be able to return before the end of the regular season (per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). In fact, he could be back by the end of the month. The right-hander told Plunkett that he could realistically return to the mound in three weeks. If he can meet that optimistic goal, he’d be back in the Dodgers bullpen on August 31. Graterol thought his season was in jeopardy when his injury was originally diagnosed as a Grade 3 hamstring strain. However, that diagnosis was later downgraded to a Grade 1 strain, which is far less severe.

Plunkett also notes that starting pitcher Walker Buehler will return from the injured list on Wednesday to start against the Brewers. Meanwhile, reliever Ryan Brasier is getting ready to rejoin the Dodgers for their series against the Cardinals next weekend. Buehler has been out since June with inflammation in his right hip, while Brasier has been out since April with a right calf strain.

As for position players, Plunkett mentions that Max Muncy and recent trade acquisition Tommy Edman both began their rehab assignments at Triple-A Oklahoma City today. Muncy suffered an oblique strain in May, while Edman has been out all season as he works his way back from offseason wrist surgery.

Dodgers Place Walker Buehler On Injured List

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The Dodgers announced the placement of Walker Buehler on the 15-day injured list. He’s dealing with inflammation in his right hip. That’s the corresponding move for the reinstatement of Bobby Miller from his own 15-day IL stint. Manager Dave Roberts announced last week that Miller would make his return tonight against the Rockies.

Buehler’s IL placement isn’t unexpected. Both Roberts and the veteran righty told reporters last night that it was under consideration. Buehler hasn’t looked like himself in his return from the second Tommy John surgery of his career. He has taken the ball eight times since being activated on May 6. Buehler has been tagged for a 5.84 ERA across 37 innings with alarming underlying indicators. Opponents have already connected on 10 home runs (2.43 per nine) while his strikeout rate has dropped to a personal-low 18.5% clip.

On a per-pitch basis, Buehler has gotten swinging strikes only 7.2% of the time. He had landed somewhere in the 10-12% range in every prior season of his career. Buehler hasn’t had any issues throwing strikes, but his overall performance has been that of a control-oriented #5 starter as opposed to a borderline ace.

It wouldn’t have been fair to expect Buehler to immediately pick back up as a top-flight starter nearly two years since his most recent MLB pitch. He and the Dodgers certainly wouldn’t have anticipated him struggling to this extent, though, so the IL placement will serve as a reset. Buehler’s velocity has come back after the elbow procedure, offering reason for optimism he can sort things out. His four-seam fastball has averaged 95.5 MPH while his 91.5 MPH cutter and 79 MPH knuckle-curve are in line with their respective 2022 figures.

That will leave the Dodgers shorthanded in the rotation. As recently as late last week, Roberts indicated that L.A. was going to move to a six-man unit with Miller’s return. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Buehler since gone down, leaving Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone and James Paxton alongside Miller.

Roberts said tonight that L.A. will make a move on Friday to fill the starting spot (X link via Juan Toribio of MLB.com). Righty Landon Knack last pitched for Triple-A Oklahoma City on Sunday, so he’d be on regular rest for a Friday start. Knack pitched well in four MLB starts earlier in the year and has a 3.54 ERA over 48 1/3 frames with OKC. He’s the straightforward choice to draw back into the starting five.

Dodgers Reinstate Walker Buehler, Place Joe Kelly On IL

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May 6: Los Angeles officially activated Buehler, as expected. To clear space on the roster, the Dodgers placed Joe Kelly on the 15-day injured list. The veteran reliever is dealing with a posterior shoulder strain.

Kelly is the fifth Dodger reliever on the shelf, joining Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, Ryan Brasier and Connor Brogdon. Kelly has pitched to a 4.73 ERA through 13 1/3 innings on the season. His strikeout rate has dropped from an excellent 35.7% clip to a solid but not elite 24.1% mark in the early going, though he continues to throw exceptionally hard and is still inducing plenty of grounders.

May 2: The Dodgers will activate Walker Buehler from the 15-day injured list on Monday, manager Dave Roberts told the L.A. beat after last night’s win over the Diamondbacks (link via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). He’ll take the ball to kick off a series against the Marlins.

It’ll be Buehler’s first major league appearance since June 10, 2022. The two-time All-Star went on the injured list 12 starts into the ’22 season with a flexor strain. After an unsuccessful attempt to rehab, he underwent a Tommy John procedure in August. That was the second such surgery of his career. Buehler also underwent Tommy John shortly after the Dodgers selected him out of Vanderbilt back in 2015.

While there was initially some thought that the right-hander could make a return late in 2023, he and the team decided it was better to play things safe and look ahead to ’24. The Dodgers started Buehler on the IL this season to afford him ample time to build back to peak form. He’d very likely have been on some kind of innings limit anyhow, so it’s understandable the Dodgers didn’t want to push him back onto the MLB roster too quickly.

Buehler began a rehab stint right around Opening Day. That stay in the minors probably lasted a little longer than the organization intended. Buehler was knocked out of his third appearance early when a comeback liner hit him in the throwing hand. That didn’t lead to any kind of serious injury but slightly delayed his pitch count build-up. Buehler walked four hitters in 2 2/3 innings in his fourth outing, so the Dodgers gave him two more Triple-A appearances to continue shaking off the rust.

While his cumulative results on the rehab stint — a 4.15 ERA with 21 strikeouts and nine walks in 21 2/3 frames — were middling, Buehler is coming off his cleanest outing. He tossed five innings of one-run ball for Triple-A Oklahoma City on Tuesday. Buehler punched out five and didn’t issue a walk. He pushed his pitch count to 75, so he should be able to handle something approaching a standard starter’s workload immediately.

Buehler will get a soft landing in his season debut, as he’ll take on a Miami club that ranks 28th in on-base percentage and 29th in slugging. If he’s able to recapture his pre-surgery form, he shouldn’t have any issue taking on more challenging offenses as the season progresses. Buehler was one of the sport’s best pitchers between 2018-21, combining for a 2.82 ERA over 95 outings. He was off to a more pedestrian start to 2022, pitching to a 4.02 ERA through 65 frames with a diminished 21.2% strikeout rate. Buehler’s velocity and swinging strike percentage were in line with their previous levels, though, so he’d likely have turned in his typical top-of-the-rotation results down the stretch if not for the injury.

The Dodgers have gotten solid production out of their rotation thus far. They rank eighth in the majors with a 3.48 earned run average and sit sixth with a 24.1% strikeout rate. It has been a top-heavy group, though. Tyler Glasnow has been excellent. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has rebounded from a nightmare MLB debut to rattle off a 1.64 ERA in the subsequent six starts. The back half of the rotation has been shakier.

James Paxton’s solid 3.51 ERA belies an untenable 22:15 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Gavin Stone has struggled. Bobby Miller landed on the injured list after three starts with shoulder inflammation. Emmet Sheehan, Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May have been on the shelf all year. Landon Knack turned in decent results over three starts since Miller’s injury. The Dodgers optioned him back to OKC yesterday.

The 2024 campaign is a crucial one for Buehler personally. He’ll be a first-time free agent next winter. His health history will likely worry some teams regardless of how he performs over the next five months, but he’s one of the higher-ceiling pitchers in the upcoming class. If he stays healthy from here forward, he could position himself well for a long-term deal heading into his age-30 season.

Dodgers Notes: Brasier, Heyward, Buehler

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The Dodgers were dealt a minor hit to their bullpen this evening, as they placed Ryan Brasier on the 15-day injured list with a right calf strain. Gus Varland is back up from Triple-A Oklahoma City to take the open roster spot.

Brasier has gotten out to a bit of a slow start. He has allowed six runs over 11 2/3 innings, largely thanks to a trio of home runs. Brasier’s 12:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio remains solid, although his whiff rate and velocity are down from last season. It’s early enough in the year that the Dodgers presumably aren’t too concerned.

The veteran went from unheralded pickup to high-leverage arm late in 2023 thanks to a brilliant finish. After carrying a 7.29 ERA in 21 innings with the Red Sox, he posted a 0.70 mark over 38 2/3 frames in L.A. The Dodgers re-signed Brasier to a two-year, $9MM pact over the winter.

Manager Dave Roberts provided a couple additional updates before tonight’s game in Arizona. Jason Heyward has still yet to ramp up his activity nearly a month after landing on the injured list (X link via Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). Roberts indicated Heyward’s recovery from lower back soreness has taken longer than the organization initially expected.

As with Brasier, Heyward went from buy-low free agent pickup to ket contributor. The veteran outfielder hit 15 homers with a .269/.340/.473 slash in 377 plate appearances as a platoon bat last season. Los Angeles brought him back early in the offseason via a one-year, $9MM deal. Heyward hasn’t had much of a chance to make an impact this year, as the back injury sent him to the IL after four games. The bottom of the order was initially a problem, but the immediate success of top prospect Andy Pages has stabilized right field over the last two weeks.

Dodger fans will also need to wait a little longer for Walker Buehler’s 2024 debut. The right-hander is going to make another start for Oklahoma City tomorrow, tweets Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. It’ll be his sixth rehab appearance. Buehler continues to build back after missing all of last season rehabbing his second career Tommy John procedure. He has shown some understandable rust, allowing 12 runs with nine walks in 16 2/3 innings.

NL West Notes: Kelly, Buehler, Cobb

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Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly was scratched from his start in San Francisco this afternoon, with Kelly telling Steve Gilbert of MLB.com that he’s suffering from an injury involving his teres major strain. Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic adds that, per manager Torey Lovullo, Kelly has already undergone an MRI and is going to head back to Phoenix to be evaluated by team doctors. Piecoro adds that the club remains hopeful that the veteran hurler can avoid a stint on the injured list.

Missed time for Kelly would be a serious blow to the Diamondbacks’ rotation, which has already been without veteran southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez to this point in a season due to a lat strain. Losing Kelly, who sports a 3.26 ERA and 3.75 FIP over 67 starts dating back to the 2022 campaign, would compound the loss of Rodriguez and right-hander Ryne Nelson, who was placed on the injured list with a right elbow contusion last week. Kelly’s start this afternoon will instead go to right-hander Slade Cecconi, who posted a 4.33 ERA and 4.37 FIP in 27 innings of work for Dbacks last year.

If Kelly misses more than just today’s start, the club would likely need a fifth starter to go along with Cecconi, Zac Gallen, Jordan Montgomery, and Brandon Pfaadt. One possible option could be left-hander Tommy Henry, who has pitched 154 1/3 innings of work across 30 appearances with the Diamondbacks since his debut in 2022 but has generally struggled in those appearances. While he posted a roughly league average ERA of 4.15 with the club last year, he allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in just 18 1/3 innings across four starts in the majors this year and holds a career ERA in the big leagues of 4.84 with a 5.18 FIP.

More from around the NL West…

  • The Dodgers are having some rotation issues of their own, with Bobby Miller, Kyle Hurt, and Emmet Sheehan all joining arms such as Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin on the shelf in recent weeks. Of the club’s many injured starters, right-hander Walker Buehler appears to be the only one nearing a return, though even he won’t be an immediate solution to the club’s rotation puzzle. As noted by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, manager Dave Roberts recently told reporters that Buehler will make at least one more rehab start before returning to the big league club. Said start is scheduled for Wednesday, meaning the earliest Buehler could be expected to pitch in the majors would be April 29. In the meantime, the club figures to lean on right-hander Landon Knack to fill out the rotation alongside Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, James Paxton, and Gavin Stone.
  • The Giants placed right-hander Alex Cobb on the 60-day IL yesterday after the right-hander suffered a setback in his rehab from hip surgery earlier this week. While that news initially appeared to be somewhat ominous, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area relays this afternoon that manager Bob Melvin told reporters that it’s “realistic” that Cobb could be activated as soon as he’s first eligible to return on May 27. That’s great news for San Francisco, as the club has leaned on Cobb more than any pitcher besides Logan Webb since he joined the club on a two-year deal prior to the 2022 season. In that time, he’s made 56 starts for the Giants while pitching to a 3.80 ERA with an even stronger 3.41 FIP. Young righty Keaton Winn has filled out the club’s rotation alongside Webb, Blake Snell, Kyle Harrison, and Jordan Hicks while Cobb has been out of commission.

Dodgers Shut Emmet Sheehan Down; Walker Buehler Could Return Soon

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Dodgers right-hander Emmet Sheehan hasn’t pitched this season while rehabbing from a forearm injury. He’d recently resumed throwing to live hitters, but manager Dave Roberts told reporters last night that the 24-year-old righty has been shut back down because his arm “hasn’t been responding” the way Dodgers medical personnel hoped (link via Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). Sheehan said he had another round of testing on his arm that didn’t reveal any structural damage, but Roberts still called his injury a “longer-term situation.” The Dodgers had already transferred him to the 60-day injured list at the end of March.

Sheehan entered the 2023 season as one of the Dodgers’ top pitching prospects and pushed his way into top-100 consideration with a strong minor league showing early last year. By mid-June, he was up in the big leagues for his debut. While the right-hander’s 4.92 ERA in a subsequent sample of 60 1/3 innings didn’t exactly cement him as a long-term fixture just yet, he entered camp as perhaps the favorite to land a rotation spot behind Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Bobby Miller and James Paxton. That spot instead went to fellow righty Gavin Stone, who started his 2024 campaign with two shaky starts before an excellent third outing that saw him carry a perfect game into the sixth inning before running into trouble.

The setback for Sheehan creates further uncertainty in a Dodgers’ rotation that also has Miller, Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May on the injured list. Sheehan’s status on the 60-day IL already meant he was out until at least mid-May, but there’s no way to gauge how long he might be expected to miss right now.

The Dodgers still rank tenth in the majors in rotation ERA, thanks in no small part to a dominant start to the season from Glasnow. Some alarm bells sounded when Yamamoto was torched for five runs in one inning during his MLB debut, but he’s responded by rattling off 15 innings with just three runs allowed while posting a terrific 19-to-3 K/BB ratio. Paxton has quality run-prevention numbers, but his success isn’t sustainable if he keeps walking more hitters than he’s striking out. He’s issued 14 free passes in 16 innings, yielding a walk to a glaring 20.6% of his opponents on the season. He’s fanned just ten (14.7%).

In Glasnow and Paxton, the Dodgers are banking on a pair of oft-injured veterans to help lead the staff while awaiting the returns of Buehler, Kershaw and May. Buehler is expected to make another rehab start this Thursday, per Mike DiGiovanna and Jack Harris of the L.A. Times. His most recent rehab outing was cut short when a comebacker struck his pitching hand, but Buehler escaped that injury scare unscathed. Roberts indicated that Buehler is targeting 80 to 85 pitches in that scheduled Thursday outing. He’ll be reevaluated after that point. If the team feels he’s ready, that’d point to a return next week. If he needs one more rehab start following Thursday’s outing, he could still return in the final days of April.

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