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Yankees Focusing Primarily On Bullpen Upgrades

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The Yankees have been linked to a wide range of starting pitchers on both the free agent and trade markets throughout the offseason, but Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reports that the team has shifted its focus to the bullpen. The asking prices for free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, coupled with lofty asks from teams peddling starting pitching (e.g. the White Sox, Marlins) make it unlikely the Yankees will make another significant addition to their starting staff, per Kuty. The Yankees signed Marcus Stroman to a two-year contract last week and reportedly made an offer to Snell but weren’t close to the reigning NL Cy Young winner’s asking price.

Clay Holmes is again expected to anchor the New York bullpen after another strong showing in 2023. Acquired in what was then a low-profile deadline trade met with a collective yawn from most fans, the now-30-year-old righty has taken his game to new heights in the Bronx.

After posting a 5.57 ERA in parts of four seasons with the Pirates, Holmes has given the Yankees 154 2/3 frames of 2.50 ERA ball. The command issues that plagued him in Pittsburgh have dissipated (7.5% walk rate as a Yankee), and he’s ridden his power sinker to 44 saves and 17 holds while punching out 27.2% of his opponents. Since 2021, there have been 456 pitchers to throw at least 100 innings in the majors; none has a higher ground-ball rate than Holmes’ staggering 69.9%.

Behind Holmes, things are a bit shakier. Right-hander Jonathan Loaisiga has been excellent since 2021, sporting a tidy 2.97 ERA with a terrific 59.3% grounder rate thanks in large part to a power sinker of his own. However, Loaisiga pitched just 17 2/3 innings last year and did so with a career-worst 8.7% strikeout rate that ranked fifth-worst in MLB among pitchers with at least 10 innings. He spent the bulk of the season on the injured list (two separate stints) due to elbow inflammation. Loaisiga also had IL stints in 2021 and 2022, both pertaining to his right shoulder. He’s reached 50 innings in a big league season just once, back in 2021.

Similarly, right-hander Tommy Kahnle has been excellent when healthy … but such instances have been few and far between. Last year’s 40 2/3 innings were Kahnle’s most since 2019 and marked just the fourth time in ten MLB seasons that he’s reached even 40 innings pitched. Kahnle opened the year on the 60-day IL due to biceps tendinitis and closed out the year on the 15-day IL owing to shoulder inflammation. In his 40 2/3 innings, he turned in a sharp 2.66 ERA with a 29.1% strikeout rate against an elevated 11.5% walk rate. A healthy Kahnle is a big bullpen piece, but that’s tough to rely on, given his lengthy injury history.

Beyond that trio, things are even less stable. Right-hander Ian Hamilton had an out-of-the-blue breakout in 2023, tossing 58 innings of 2.64 ERA ball, but he’s a 28-year-old with no prior big league success. Ron Marinaccio’s eye-popping 2.05 ERA from 2022’s excellent rookie season nearly doubled in 2023 (3.99), and command continues to be an issue for him (13% walk rate in both 2022 and 2023). Righty Scott Effross will be in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Southpaw Victor Gonzalez, acquired from the Dodgers earlier in the winter, gives the Yankees another ground-ball specialist, but his overall numbers have declined each season since his excellent 2021 debut.

Beyond the injury concern and lack of proven arms beyond the top few names, the Yankees must also replace the innings of several outgoing relievers. Right-hander Michael King, left-hander Wandy Peralta and righty Keynan Middleton combined for 132 2/3 innings of 2.85 ERA ball out of the bullpen last year. King was traded to the Padres as part of the Juan Soto deal and will open the season in San Diego’s rotation. Peralta and Middleton are both free agents (and both remain unsigned).

On top of that, each of Holmes, Kahnle and Loaisiga is a free agent following the 2024 campaign. The upcoming season will be the second of a two-year, $11.5MM free agent deal between the Yankees and Kahnle. That contract does not have an option for an additional season. Both Holmes and Loaisiga will reach six years of service time in 2024 and become free agents for the first time — with Holmes headed toward being one of the top relievers on next year’s free agent class.

It’s no secret that the Yankees are set to shatter every luxury tax barrier this season, which only further muddies their path to bolstering the team. Roster Resource projects the Yankees at around $305MM of luxury obligations, placing the team well beyond the fourth and final $297MM luxury tier. Couple that with their status as a club that’s exceeded the threshold in at least three straight seasons, and they’ll pay a massive 110% tax on any dollars spent on the 2024 payroll. Even bringing Peralta back on the same $3.35MM salary he earned last year would cost the Yankees more than $7MM — and Peralta, of course, has very likely positioned himself for a nice raise over that relatively modest mark.

That onerous tax status, to be clear, doesn’t seem likely to preclude the Yankees from making further additions. They had interest in a Peralta reunion as far back as November and reportedly had some talks with him in early December. Kuty writes that the Yankees “love” the left-hander and what he brings to the clubhouse (in addition to his obvious on-field contributions). Meanwhile, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggested recently that the Yankees are one of the favorites to sign veteran righty Hector Neris.

Similarly, it should be noted that while Kuty casts doubt on the team’s likelihood of making another big splash in the rotation, that doesn’t rule out the possibility of more minor pickups. The Yanks added Luke Weaver on a low-cost one-year deal earlier in the month, and he’ll provide some long relief and starting depth. Additional deals in that vein, or perhaps minor league deals for veterans who could be stashed in Triple-A, could well come together. It’s always possible that a late drop in the asking price of Snell or Montgomery could spur the Yankees to circle back to one of the market’s top remaining starters, but for now that type of splash seems improbable.

Mets Still Exploring Bullpen Market

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Jan. 10: SNY’s Andy Martino indicates that the Mets are planning to spend in the vicinity of another $10MM on the 2024 payroll, with the bullpen indeed standing as the top priority. That’d very likely leave room for acquisitions along the lines of Suter, Peralta, Brebbia or other middle-tier relievers in free agency but figures to take the Mets out of the running for Hader and any of the top-tier bats left on the market.

Jan 9: The Mets have signed three relievers to major league contracts this offseason — Jorge Lopez, Michael Tonkin, Austin Adams — but perhaps aren’t yet done adding to the relief corps. Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that while the Mets are highly unlikely to play at the top of the relief market (i.e. Josh Hader), they’re active in the lower tiers, with a preference for a left-handed arm. Brent Suter and Wandy Peralta are among the potential targets, and Sherman suggests that righty John Brebbia could be of interest to the Mets as well.

Suter, 34, has drawn some interest as a starting pitcher this winter but would presumably slot into the bullpen role for the Mets, whose president of baseball operations, David Stearns, knows the lefty quite well from the pair’s days together in Milwaukee (2016-22). Suter spent the 2023 season with the Rockies and showed no ill effects even moving to Coors Field; he logged a 3.38 ERA with an 18.8% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate, 46.5% grounder rate and his characteristic brand of weak contact. Suter’s 84 mph average exit velocity, 26.3% hard-hit rate and 3.3% barrel rate all ranked in the 97th percentile or better among MLB pitchers.

While Suter has never been a huge strikeout arm, his nearly-impossible-to-barrel repertoire has long made him a successful big leaguer. He touts a 3.49 ERA since making his MLB debut back in 2016 and, since moving to a relief role back in 2020, has logged a 3.16 earned run average with a 21.4% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate. Suter’s age and lack of velocity — he averaged just 88.3 mph on his sinker in 2023 and has never topped an 88.4 mph average — might combine to tamp down his earning power, but he’s a candidate for a multi-year deal and could hold extra appeal to Stearns due to those Brewers ties.

Peralta, meanwhile, is a known commodity to another key Mets figure: incoming manager Carlos Mendoza. The former Yankees bench coach had a first-hand look at Peralta in each of the past three seasons as he became an increasingly important arm for the Yankees. From 2021-23, Peralta logged 153 innings of 2.82 ERA ball with a 21% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and huge 56.5% ground-ball rate. While Peralta isn’t quite at Suter’s level of hard contact suppression, he’s been in the 88th percentile or better in terms of his own average exit velocity in each of the past four seasons.

Brebbia, 33, has spent the past three seasons in San Francisco and fared quite well for the most part. He posted an ugly 5.89 ERA in a tiny sample of 18 innings there back in 2021 — his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Since then, he’s worked to a 3.47 ERA in 106 1/3 frames with the Giants from 2022-23. Brebbia has worked as a setup man but was also a frequent opener for the Giants. He’s fresh off a career-best 29.2% strikeout rate. In six big league seasons between the Cardinals and Giants, he’s logged a 3.42 ERA with better-than-average strikeout and walk rates of 25.5% and 7.2%, respectively.

Any of the three listed possibilities would come to the Mets with more track record than their signings to date. Mets fans might be frustrated at the lack of high-profile targets for the team outside of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed a 12-year contract with the Dodgers, but any of Suter, Peralta or Brebbia would improve the club’s bullpen — likely on relatively short-term deals. That comes with the benefit both of slightly bolstering the roster while also creating the possibility of emerging as a deadline trade candidate in the event that the Mets fall out of the running by July.

Yankees Notes: Third Base, Kiner-Falefa, Peralta

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After landing Alex Verdugo from their arch-rival Red Sox in a rare trade between the sides earlier this evening, the Yankees still figure to look for upgrades to a lineup that ranked 19th in the majors with a 94 wRC+ in 2023 despite another fantastic season from team captain Aaron Judge, who slashed .267/.406/.613 with 37 home runs in just 106 games this season. Those upgrades don’t appear likely to come in the form of an addition at third base, however, as GM Brian Cashman told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) earlier today that the club feels “covered” around the infield and does not consider third base to be an area of need this offseason.

While the Yankees figure to return Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Volpe as established regulars at first base, second base, and shortstop respectively, the hot corner features a little more uncertainty next season. Yankees third basemen slashed a collective .225/.302/.361 this past season, good for an 85 wRC+ that ranked better than just eight teams in 2023. Veteran infielder DJ LeMahieu took most of the club’s reps at the hot corner last season with 67 starts, though each of Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera also contributed as the Yankees mixed-and-matched at the position.

With Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa both having departed the organization, that would seemingly leave LeMahieu in line to receive the most reps at the position once again in 2024. The 35-year-old veteran just completed the third season of his six-year, $90MM contract with the Yankees. LeMahieu got roughly league average results (101 wRC+) at the plate in 2023 with a .243/.327/.390 slash line in 136 games. While LeMahieu’s 15 home runs tied his 2018 total with the Rockies for the second-highest of his career in a single season, the added power came at the cost of discipline. LeMahieu struck out at a career-high 22.2% clip this past season, well above both his career average of 15.2% and the 13.1% mark he posted in 2022.

Despite the additional whiffs as LeMahieu enters his mid-thirties, the veteran is likely still the club’s best option at the hot corner entering the year as both Cabrera and Peraza are coming off disastrous offensive seasons at the plate. While Peraza performed solidly at the Triple-A level with a 108 wRC+ in 300 plate appearances, the 23-year-old looked over-matched in the big leagues with a meager .191/.267/.272 slash line in a 52 games in the majors. Cabrera, meanwhile, appeared in 115 games for the Yankees as a utility player and struggled similarly across 330 big league plate appearances, slashing just .211/.275/.299 in that time.

Even as Cashman suggests the club is set at third with their internal options, Hoch reports that the club is at least considering adding one more bat to their infield mix: Kiner-Falefa. Jon Heyman of the New York Post echoes Hoch’s report of interest in bringing IKF back to the Bronx, but makes clear that the Yankees are far from alone in their interest in the utilityman; Heyman suggests that as many as 12 teams have interest in Kiner-Falefa’s services this offseason. The 28-year-old doesn’t contribute much at the plate, as he posted an 82 wRC+ in 2023 that nearly matches his career mark of 81, but he makes up for that lack of offensive ability with strong glovework all around the diamond.

Kiner-Falefa began his big league career as a backup catcher, though he hasn’t appeared behind the plate since the 2019 season. Since then, he’s proved to be an elite defensive infielder, winning a Gold Glove at third base in 2020 while offering strong defense at shortstop as well. IKF further expanded his defensive profile in 2023, appearing in 78 games on the outfield grass including 278 1/3 defensive innings of work in center field. While Kiner-Falefa’s strongest defensive marks come on the infield dirt, he posted a respectable +1 OAA and -1 DRS in center this season, potentially making him an attractive bench piece for teams in need of defensive versatility.

IKF isn’t the only outgoing free agent the Yankees reportedly have interest in retaining, as both Heyman and Hoch suggest the club has discussed a reunion with lefty reliever Wandy Peralta. Peralta, 32, has spent parts of eight seasons in the big leagues splitting time between three organizations but saw his career reach a new level since joining the Yankees partway through the 2021 season. Across 165 appearances in pinstripes, Peralta posted a 2.82 ERA that was 49% better than league average by measure of ERA+, though his 4.00 FIP leaves something to be desired. Advanced metrics are particularly critical of Peralta’s 2023 campaign. Despite a sterling 2.83 ERA in 54 innings, the southpaw posted a 5.05 FIP, 4.50 xFIP and 4.44 SIERA this past season.

Much of that disparity is thanks to a whopping 13.2% walk rate that was papered over in terms of Peralta’s raw run prevention numbers thanks to a microscopic .218 BABIP allowed and a career-high 85.2% strand rate. Despite those red flags, however, Peralta has gotten results in each of the past four seasons with a 3.01 ERA dating back to the start of the 2020 season. Much of that success has been thanks to Peralta’s excellence against left-handed hitters, to whom he’s surrendered a slash line of just .213/.308/.330 throughout his big league career. That’s surely a particularly attractive trait for the Yankees, who currently sport just two left-handed relief options on their 40-man roster in Nick Ramirez and Matt Krook.

Yankees Notes: Nola, Yamamoto, Peralta, Bailey

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While hitting upgrades have dominated the Yankees’ offseason narrative to date, the team is certainly also keeping an eye on the pitching market, including some top-shelf names.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via X) writes that the “Yankees are among the most active teams” exploring pitchers thus far, with such names as Aaron Nola and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on their list of targets.

The Yankees’ interest in Yamamoto is well known, and while Nola is a new face linked to the Bronx Bombers, it makes perfect sense why Nola would be of interest.  No opponent would relish facing Gerrit Cole and Nola in a short playoff series, and Nola’s durability would be a significant boost to a New York rotation that has some question marks heading into 2024.  Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes were plagued by injuries last season, Clarke Schmidt has only one full season as a big league starter under his belt, and Michael King (who is being tapped to remain in the rotation) has even less experience as a starter.

If everyone is healthy and if King and Schmidt can pitch as well as they did in 2023, this could be one of baseball’s best rotations on paper.  However, signing Nola, Yamamoto, or another stabilizing force to the front end of the staff would both clear up some of the uncertainty, and perhaps allow the Bombers some more flexibility with their other offseason moves.  For instance, younger pitchers like Yoendrys Gomez or Randy Vasquez might become trade chips, or perhaps even Schmidt might be shopped to land a bat.  While King will be given every opportunity to stick as a starter, the Yankees would be more open to reinstalling him as a bullpen weapon if they were more comfortable with the rest of their rotation.

Of course, it should be noted that signing Rodon last winter was supposed to deepen the rotation, but Rodon was ineffective in the first year of his six-year, $162MM contract.  Rodon’s struggles won’t preclude New York from again spending big on a starter, though it might change the general focus of their search.  For instance, Nola has averaged just under 199 innings pitched in each of the last five full MLB seasons, so he has a much longer track record of good health and consistent success.

The Yankees’ pitching endeavors also reach to the bullpen, as Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports that the club has interest in re-signing Wandy Peralta, though the left-hander hasn’t yet been presented with a formal offer.  Peralta has a 2.82 ERA over 153 innings with the Yankees since being acquired in the Mike Tauchman trade with the Giants in April 2021, and he is among baseball’s best at keeping the ball on the ground with a 56.3% grounder rate over the last three seasons.  While a .256 BABIP has helped Peralta’s cause, he is also very good at limiting hard contact, making it easier for his fielders to handle any balls in play.

This grounder-heavy arsenal and a relative lack of strikeouts makes Peralta prone to outperforming his peripherals, though he took this to extremes in 2023.  Peralta’s 2.83 ERA and .293 xOBA were well below his 4.44 SIERA and .332 xwOBA, and his walk rate (which has usually been below average anyway) spiked to a dismal 13.2%.  It could just be a one-year blip that it probably won’t be enough to prevent Peralta from landing a multi-year free agent deal, yet it does serve as a potential red flag for suitors.  Since the Yankees know Peralta better than any other club, their continued interest is perhaps a sign that they don’t see the control issue as a long-term problem, or it could be the Yankees are just monitoring Peralta to see if he can be retained at a relative bargain price.

In some Yankees news off the field, Andrew Bailey interviewed with the team on Monday about the bench coach job, according to the New York Post’s Joel Sherman.  Bailey is no stranger to the Bronx, as his eight seasons as a big league pitcher included a stint with the Yankees in 2015.  Formerly the Giants’ pitching coach for the last four seasons, Bailey is now out of contract and is known to be getting consideration from not just the Yankees as a bench coach, but also from the Orioles and Red Sox as a pitching coach candidate.  Sherman adds that the Marlins also have interest in Bailey as a pitching coach, and that Bailey “turned down an opportunity to be considered by the White Sox” for an unspecified role.

Yankees Recall Yoendrys Gómez For MLB Debut

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The Yankees announced that they have placed left-hander Wandy Peralta on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to September 19, with a left triceps strain. In a corresponding move, they recalled right-hander Yoendrys Gómez, who will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game.

Peralta, 32, has been a quietly effective reliever over the past few years. Dating back to the start of the 2020 campaign, he has an earned run average of 3.01 over 200 appearances. That includes a 2.83 ERA in 63 appearances for the Yankees this year, along with a 22.5% strikeout rate, 13.2% walk rate and 57.4% ground ball rate.

He hasn’t appeared in a game in over a week due to the triceps issue. Manager Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch of MLB.com this week that the issue is considered “pretty minor,” but he’ll now land on the injured list regardless. Perhaps with the Yankees playing out the string on a lost season, they decided it best not to risk making the issue worse. Regardless of the severity, Peralta’s season is now done just based on the time left on the schedule.

Peralta is a free agent this winter and should be able to market himself well based on his aforementioned strong results in recent years. Ending the season on the injured list isn’t ideal, but there’s nothing at this point to suggest it will significantly impact his market or his 2024 season.

As for Gómez, the 23-year-old gets to the big leagues for the first time. Signed as an amateur out of Venezuela in 2016, he has been driving through the minors since then, but with his share of speed bumps. His work in the lower levels had impressed the club enough to get him a 40-man spot in November of 2020, to keep him out of that year’s Rule 5 draft. But he would only throw 23 2/3 innings of Single-A ball in 2021 due to a combination of a shoulder injury, contracting COVID-19 and then Tommy John surgery.

In the second half of 2022, he was able to throw 47 innings across three levels, finishing at Double-A with a combined 2.49 ERA in that time. This year, he’s made 19 Double-A starts with a 3.58 ERA and a strong 28.5% strikeout rate, but a concerning 13.5% walk rate. He’s been on Baseball America’s list of top 30 Yankee prospects since 2019, peaking at #8 going into 2021 but dropping to the back end due to recent hiccups.

Despite all the challenges he has faced, Gómez has persisted and will now get a brief look in the majors as this season winds down. He should be able to provide Boone with a multi-inning relief option as the club gets through the final week-plus of their schedule.

Gómez is in his final option season and will be out of options next year. Clubs are sometimes granted a fourth option if a player misses significant time due to injury, which could apply to Gómez based on his surgery, but that’s purely speculative.

Latest On Yankees’ Deadline Approach

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With the Yankees in last place in the AL East despite a decent 55-51 record, their path forward remains somewhat murky with less than four hours to go before the trade deadline. Joel Sherman of the New York Post indicates that the club could look to both buy and sell, searching for long-term controllable pieces in areas of need while fielding offers on the pending free agents on their roster.

Several of the club’s pending free agents, including Luis Severino and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, have had difficult seasons in 2023, but could nonetheless draw interest as low-cost, depth additions from other clubs. Lefty Wandy Peralta, who has a 2.29 ERA in 47 appearances out of New York’s bullpen this year, and center fielder Harrison Bader have both fared better in their walk years, with Bader in particular drawing interest per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. Sherman more specifically notes that the Yankees and Phillies have discussed Bader, though there is “limited traction” on a deal between the sides.

Sherman adds that the Yankees have discussed closer Clay Holmes in trade talks, despite Holmes being controllable through the 2024 campaign. That being said, Sherman noted that the asking price for Holmes is exorbitant, rendering a deal regarding the club’s closer unlikely. The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty adds to that doubt, noting that it’s “highly unlikely” the club parts with either Holmes or fellow leverage reliever Michael King.

As far as buying goes, the club has been frequently connected to Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson in the days and weeks leading up to the deadline, and those connections haven’t stopped today. Kuty, Sherman, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand have are among those who have linked the Yankees and Carlson recently. That being said, Heyman cautions that the Cardinals are unlikely to deal Carlson unless they get a young MLB starter in return. That’s a price the Yankees could pay if they so chose, with youngsters Clarke Schmidt and Jhony Brito currently occupying spots in the club’s starting rotation.

As Feinsand notes, that Carlson’s ability to play quality defense in center field could be of particular value given Bader’s status as a pending free agent. Carlson could take over for Bader in center immediately in the event of a trade before the deadline, or play left field for the remainder of the 2023 campaign and shift over to center in the event Bader departs via free agency this offseason.

Yankees Open To Offers On Impending Free Agents

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The Yankees dropped tonight’s 5-1 contest to the Rays. They’re at 55-51 heading into the deadline, last place in the AL East despite being four games above .500. New York is only 3.5 out of a Wild Card spot and recently welcomed Aaron Judge back, but they’ve gone 21-27 since the start of June.

With around 18 hours before the deadline, general manager Brian Cashman and his front office find themselves with a difficult balancing act. Whether to add for a playoff push, entertain offers on veterans, or attempt to walk the line by doing both is in question. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported before tonight’s loss that the Yankees were telling other clubs they’re willing to entertain trade offers on their impending free agents.

Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem the Yankees are strictly bucketing themselves as “sellers.” Buster Olney of ESPN tweeted this afternoon New York was still searching the market for outfield help. Meanwhile, Derrick Goold of the St, Louis Post Dispatch reports the Yanks are among the teams that have reached out to the Cardinals on starter Jack Flaherty — though it isn’t clear how recent that interest is.

It seems Cashman and his front office could entertain multiple moves that blur the line between buying and selling. Their impending free agents are having relatively disappointing seasons, though they could find varying levels of interest in each (not including Frankie Montas and Josh Donaldson, whose injuries and high salaries make them essentially impossible to move).

Harrison Bader has continued to battle injury issues, missing time with oblique and hamstring problems. He’s gotten into 57 games, connecting on seven homers but with a modest .283 on-base percentage. While it’s his second straight below-average offensive showing, Bader is an elite center fielder and has stolen 10 bags in 12 attempts. He’s playing on a $4.7MM salary and should have a decent amount of appeal on a trade market light on position player talent.

Left-hander Wandy Peralta would be a fairly straightforward target for clubs seeking relief depth. He’s holding same-handed hitters to a putrid .091/.242/.091 batting line in 67 plate appearances. Peralta has a 2.29 ERA in 37 1/3 innings overall. His strikeout and walk numbers are both subpar but he’s picking up grounders at an elite 64.1% clip while averaging 96 MPH on his sinker. He’s making $3.35MM in his final arbitration season.

There’d be less appeal with either Luis Severino or Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The former is playing on a lofty $15MM salary and having a nightmarish season. He’s been tagged for a 7.49 ERA across 12 starts. His formerly plus strikeout rates have fallen to a meager 18% clip. Severino’s velocity remains intact, but he’s not missing bats on either his changeup or slider at typical levels and is giving up tons of hard contact.

Kiner-Falefa, playing on a $6MM arbitration salary, has moved into a multi-positional role after serving as the primary shortstop in 2022. He’s spending the bulk of his time in the outfield, where he has slightly below-average reviews from public defensive marks. Kiner-Falefa is hitting .257/.322/.374 in 240 trips to the plate, making plenty of contact without much power.

Flaherty, of course, is an impending free agent himself. If New York’s interest in the Cards’ righty was somewhat recent, it’d obviously be with this season in mind. It’s hard to imagine the Yankees completely throwing in the towel in 2023. Each of their impending free agents is having a middling (or downright poor) enough season that they could move someone in the group while still looking for immediate help in other areas.

There could also be financial considerations at play. Roster Resource projects the Yankees’ competitive balance tax number just above $294MM. That’s a bit north of the $293MM that marks the highest tier of luxury penalization. Offseason reports indicated Yankees’ ownership was reluctant to go above that mark, although there are no non-monetary penalties for doing so. Offloading the money still owed to the likes of Bader or Peralta could allow them to dip below that number.

Players like Gleyber Torres and Clay Holmes are into arbitration and would surely attract interest from other clubs, though there’s nothing to suggest the Yankees on taking offers on players who can be controlled beyond this season. Both Torres and Holmes are eligible for arbitration once more.

Yankees Notes: Judge, Deadline Approach, Florial

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The Yankees have dropped three straight games and have now tallied just two victories in their past 10 contests. Sitting in the unfamiliar setting of last place in the American League East, there are mounting questions about the team’s trade deadline approach. It would be out of character, to say the least, for the Yankees to engineer a wide-scale selloff at the deadline. And with New York still only two and a half games back from an AL Wild Card spot, that seems decidedly unlikely.

That said, the Yankees also have a porous roster, particularly with Aaron Judge on the injured list and facing a nebulous timeline for his return. General manager Brian Cashman said yesterday that it’s fair to characterize Judge’s return as “close” before taking a noncommittal stance on whether that constituted a matter of days or weeks (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). It remains unclear when the reigning AL MVP will return to the lineup; the Yankees are hitting .223/.294/.374 as a team in his absence.

With the team reeling and currently in the AL East cellar, there have naturally been calls from the fans for the Yankees to sell at the deadline, a possibility that was discussed on the most recent episode of the MLBTR Podcast. At least to some extent, that could wind up being the case. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that the Yankees could work to dip under the top tier of the luxury tax in over the next couple weeks. Presumably, that’d come by dealing away short-term players — those who’ll reach free agency at season’s end or perhaps those controlled only through the 2024 season.

At least with regard to their crop of impending free agents, however, that could be easier said than done. Luis Severino has struggled to a 6.66 ERA in 48 2/3 innings thus far, and the underlying metrics don’t give much cause for optimism. His 17.4% strikeout rate is a career-low, and his 9.4% walk rate is the second-highest of his career. He’s averaged 2.22 homers per nine innings pitched, yielding hard contact at the highest rate of his career, and is sitting on career-low swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates.

Utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa, meanwhile, is hitting just .251/.309/.369. That’s 11% worse than average, by measure of wRC+. Acquired to be a stopgap at shortstop, Kiner-Falefa has just eight innings at that position in 2023 and has been used primarily as an outfielder this season. Defensive metrics haven’t provided a strong review of his glovework there, however.

Center fielder Harrison Bader is also a free agent at season’s end and is playing his customary brand of standout defense. However, his .275 on-base percentage also ranks 295th of the 326 players with at least 150 plate appearances this season. His overall .246/.275/.427 batting line checks in below average.

Frankie Montas, of course, hasn’t thrown a pitch this season. Trading any of Severino ($15MM in 2023), Montas ($7.5MM), Kiner-Falefa ($6MM) or Bader ($4.7MM) could be enough to dip the Yankees under the top tier of luxury penalization, as Roster Resource currently has them at $294.1MM — just $1.1MM over the limit.

The most palatable rental option for the Yankees to trade would be southpaw Wandy Peralta, who’s earning $3.35MM this season. He’s currently sporting a 2.48 ERA, but his 19.5% strikeout rate is below average and his 13.6% walk rate is an obvious eyesore. Still, Peralta is averaging just shy of 96 mph on his heater and also possesses a huge 63.2% ground-ball rate.

Rosenthal speculates on the possibility of a Gleyber Torres trade, which could simultaneously fetch more talent in return and also trim payroll more than any of those rentals aside from Severino. He’s earning $9.95MM in 2023 and hitting a solid .264/.333/.430 with 14 homers. The Yankees also have an in-house, MLB-ready alternative in young Oswald Peraza, who struggled in the Majors earlier but is slashing a .261/.352/.495 in Triple-A.

Looking at the situation as a whole, however, the final tax barrier is an odd line to draw in the sand. It’s a purely monetary line of penalization, and the Yankees are only narrowly north of it. The Yankees already committed to having their top pick in next year’s draft pushed back by 10 places when they exceeded the third tier of penalty, which sits at $273MM.

Striving to dip under that threshold would perhaps be logical but also unrealistic; trimming more than $21MM from the remaining payroll at this juncture of the season would be immensely difficult. Trades at this stage would only spare the Yankees the remainder those players’ salaries. That’s roughly $5.3MM on Severino, $1.7MM on Bader, $2.1MM on Kiner-Falefa, $1.2MM on Peralta and $3.5MM on Torres. Even trading that entire quintet would only get the Yankees about two-thirds of the way there.

None of that even takes into consideration the possibility of the Yankees simultaneously adding pieces, either. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted earlier in the week that in addition to the Yankees’ desire to upgrade in the outfield, they’ve been monitoring the catching, starting pitching and bullpen markets. That wide swath of needs speaks to the predicament in which the Yankees currently find themselves, but it’s notable that as of Monday the team appeared set on — or at least open to adding some pieces. Both Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson and Rockies outfielder Randal Grichuk have been of some interest to the Yankees, per Feinsand. Carlson, controlled through 2026, would be an affordable and long-term solution in the outfield.

The Yankees potentially have another affordable and controllable option down in Triple-A, where former top prospect Estevan Florial has put together a huge season. Designated for assignment on Opening Day and unclaimed on waivers, Florial has batted .291/.388/.535 with an already career-high 21 homers in just 335 plate appearances.

That production hasn’t been enough to get him a look in the big leagues, however. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic took a look at Florial’s situation, speaking to Triple-A skipper Shelley Duncan and others about the 25-year-old’s work ethic and motivation in the wake of that DFA and subsequent outright. It’s frankly surprising that the Yankees have continued to lean on journeymen Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun, Franchy Cordero and the aforementioned Kiner-Falefa in the outfield rather than give Florial some type of audition. Kuty suggests the team could look to trade him at the deadline, which could be a means of adding help in another area.

Broadly speaking, it’s strange to be discussing the Yankees in this context. They’re typically a motivated buyer at the trade deadline, one that has often acted aggressively and decisively in an effort to tighten their existing grip on a postseason spot. It’s a different feel in the Bronx this season, however, and various, simultaneous reports regarding payroll reduction, selling off short-term players and the possibility to add at virtually any spot on the roster only underscore the uncertainty surrounding the team.

We increasingly see modern front offices toe the line between “buyer” and “seller,” making moves in both directions in a given deadline season. The Yankees appear poised for such a hybrid approach to the ’23 deadline, though their play in the next couple weeks will surely prove instructive as well. If they’re able to right the ship and go on a winning streak of any note, Cashman & Co. could be emboldened to make moves that fall closer to the win-now side of the scale. Should the pendulum swing in the other direction, there’d be more urgency to take a step back and employ a longer-term focus.

The Yankees have one more game in Anaheim, where they’ve already lost two, before returning home to host struggling Royals and Mets teams for a combined five games. They’ll then head to Baltimore for three games and have one game against the division-leading Rays before the deadline rolls around. Their performance against a pair of sub-.500 teams on that homestand and in the subsequent four games against the top two teams in their own division will be worth watching with a careful eye; every win or loss is crucial at this point.

Yankees ALDS Notes: Rotation, Peralta, Holmes, Carpenter

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In the wake of the news that Aroldis Chapman will not be named to the Yankees’ ALDS roster for skipping a mandatory team workout, notes about other Yankees have helped clarify how the Bronx Bombers will prepare to take on the Guardians:

  • Gerrit Cole will be getting the start in Game 1 of the ALDS in New York on Tuesday night, manager Aaron Boone announced. Cole will be followed by Nestor Cortes and Luis Severino in games 2 and 3, respectively. Boone stated that he considered different alignments for his starting rotation, but ultimately decided on Cole for the opener. Boone added that the Yankees are likely to opt for a three man rotation of Cole, Cortes, and Severino for the ALDS, considering the series’s unique schedule, which features an off day between the first and second games. The extra off day will allow Cole to pitch Game 4 on full rest.
  • Clay Holmes is going to face hitters on Monday, in what he hopes will be a final tune up for the ALDS, reports Meredith Marakovits of YES (via Twitter). Holmes has battled a strain in his right shoulder since the end of September and was last used on September 26. Holmes said that his most recent bullpen felt “free and easy” and that his velocity was good. It remains to be seen whether or not Holmes will be used as a closer in the ALDS, given his second half struggles. Holmes accumulated a 4.84 ERA during the second half, a far cry from his dominant first half, during which he logged a 1.31 ERA.
  • Wandy Peralta will be ready and back in the Yankees bullpen for the ALDS, Marakovits reports (via Twitter). Peralta hit the 15-day IL retroactive to September 19 with thoracic spine tightness. Peralta, a left hander, has been one of New York’s most effective relievers, posting a 2.72 ERA in 56 1/3 innings. Peralta projects to be particularly important if the Yankees are to quiet the bats of Guardians lefties, like Andres Giminez and Steven Kwan. He has held lefties to an OPS of .422 in 2022. With Chapman off the roster, Peralta and Lucas Luetge figure to be the Yankees only left-handed options out of the bullpen.
  • Matt Carpenter expects to be ready to play in the ALDS, reports Bryan Hoch of MLB.com (via Twitter). Carpenter has been hitting, running bases, and took some grounders at first base on Sunday. After a sensational 47-game summer stretch in which Carpenter slugged 15 home runs and hit .305, the veteran infielder suffered a broken left foot on a foul ball. If Carpenter plays as a designated hitter against the Guardians, it is possible that Giancarlo Stanton will spend some time in the outfield, where he has not played since July 21.

AL East Notes: Hosmer, Pham, Castro, Peralta, Espinal

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Eric Hosmer will be activated from the injured list tomorrow, according to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. Hosmer has been out since late August with lower back inflammation.

It’s been a curious season for Hosmer. Dogged by trade rumors for years, the first baseman was initially reported to be part of the deadline blockbuster between the Padres and the Nationals where San Diego acquired Juan Soto and Josh Bell. Hosmer refused to waive his no-trade rights, however, and so the Padres pivoted, sending Luke Voit to Washington as part of the Soto package and instead moving Hosmer, Corey Rosier, and Max Ferguson to Boston in exchange for Jay Groome.

Hosmer played just 12 games for the Red Sox before heading to the injured list. In those games, he slashed a meager .225/.311/.300, though his season line of .267/.333/.381 is good for a 104 wRC+, his best mark in a full season since his 2017 walk year with the Royals. Though Hosmer’s contract, which will pay him $13 million a year for the 2023-2025 seasons, has an opt-out after this season, it’s extremely unlikely to be exercised. As such, Hosmer is expected to compete with Bobby Dalbec and top prospect Triston Casas for playing time at first base going forward, though with J.D. Martinez slated to hit free agency after this season, it’s possible Hosmer could see some time at DH as well.

Additional notes from around the AL East…

  • Red Sox outfielder Tommy Pham’s mutual option for the 2023, previously reported as $6 million, is a $12 million option, per MassLive’s Christopher Smith. Like any mutual option, it remains exceedingly unlikely to be exercised. The Red Sox acquired Pham from the Reds at the trade deadline earlier this season in exchange for a player to be named later or cash. It’s been a disappointing season at the plate for Pham, as he’s slashed just .241/.316/.381 in 611 plate appearances between Cincinnati and Boston.
  • The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner reports that Yankees reliever Miguel Castro is expected to be activated from the injured list tomorrow. The right-hander has posted a 4.00 ERA with a 3.75 FIP in 27 innings this season. Castro has been out with a right shoulder strain since July. As he’s coming off the 60-day injured list, a 40-man roster spot will be necessary to activate Castro. That spot could come from Matt Carpenter, who was transferred to the 60-day IL himself earlier today. Additionally, Kirschner relays that lefty Wandy Peralta will not pitch again during the regular season this year, instead heading to Somerset to prepare for the postseason while the Yankees travel to Texas for their final regular season series against the Rangers. Peralta was placed on the 15-day injured list in September with left thoracic spine tightness.
  • Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reports that Blue Jays infielder Santiago Espinal will take live batting practice on Tuesday, and could be activated from the injured list shortly thereafter as Toronto gears up for the postseason. Espinal has slashed .267/.322/.370 in 491 plate appearances this season, but was placed on the injured list with a left oblique strain in September. While Espinal is expected to be ready for the postseason, how much playing time he’ll have available to him is an open question. Espinal has primarily played second base this season, but fellow second basemen Whit Merrifield has posted an .865 OPS since the start of September. That being said, both players have the positional versatility to share a lineup if interim manager John Schneider so desires.
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