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Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras Has Received Preliminary Multi-Year Offers From Cardinals, Astros

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The market for the top free agent catcher continues to come into view. Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago reports that Willson Contreras has received preliminary multi-year offers from both the Cardinals and Astros at this week’s Winter Meetings. A third team has also put forth an offer, according to Wittenmyer, though the identity of that club is unknown (but is said to not be either Boston or Tampa Bay). Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch characterizes discussions more informally as the team also juggles trade possibilities but notes there has been talk about the possibility of a multi-year offer.

Both St. Louis and Houston have been tied to Contreras numerous times through the offseason, but it’s still notable those teams have put proposals on the table. John Denton of MLB.com reports (Twitter link) that a fourth year could be an obstacle in Contreras’ talks with St. Louis. According to Denton, the Cards are prepared to meet the three-time All-Star’s asking price on an annual basis but are reluctant to go past three seasons. Whether another team is putting a fourth year on the table isn’t clear, although Wittenmyer adds that no teams have thus far been willing to go five years.

St. Louis skipper Oliver Marmol confirmed reports the Cards would sit down with Contreras at the Winter Meetings. Goold has suggested the team’s preferred solution is to acquire A’s backstop Sean Murphy, although that’d require surrendering highly-regarded young talent — and the A’s are reportedly looking for MLB-ready players in return. It’s perhaps not a coincidence that Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat tweets there’s a growing sense the Cardinals could find their new catcher in free agency, and he characterizes Contreras as the target that’d be most likely in that scenario.

The Astros interest in Contreras dates back to the trade deadline, but owner Jim Crane nixed an agreed-upon swap that’d have brought him in from Chicago. It seems they’re less concerned about him acclimating to a new pitching staff with an offseason to prepare than they’d be if he were added in the midst of a pennant race, and the multi-year proposals on the table reflect that. Houston has Martín Maldonado as their top backstop at present, and Contreras would be expected to rotate between catcher, left field and designated hitter if they pulled off a deal.

At the end of the season, the 30-year-old declined a qualifying offer from the Cubs. He’d cost any signing team at least one draft pick, while the Cubs stand to receive draft compensation in the highly likely event he departs. MLBTR forecasted a four-year, $84MM contract for Contreras at the start of the offseason.

Red Sox Notes: Bogaerts, Wong, Vazquez, Contreras, Heaney

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“No progress towards a deal was made” when the Red Sox and Xander Bogaerts’ agent Scott Boras met yesterday, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe writes.  Earlier reports suggested that other teams had pulled ahead of the Sox in the race to sign the All-Star, though chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said Bogaerts was still a major priority for the club.

As one might expect, Boras highlighted the amount of interest his client is generating from multiple teams, while not closing the door on any other suitor.  In regards to the Red Sox, Boras said “I just know we continue to talk and have dialogue and continue the process with them.  The Red Sox, they kind of have four-star ownership. These guys have proven over time that they win and they pursue winning….I think everyone around them understands the Sox without ‘X’ are So-So.”

While puns are part and parcel of the Boras experience, his agency’s general policy against letting a player’s former team make a so-called final offer is also notable in regards to Boston’s chances.  “We’re not the matching kind. We let teams know that they have to assert,” Boras said.  “We don’t ever hold back from reaching an agreement with any team and certainly we don’t give market preference to anyone.  Otherwise, I think the free agent right would be dampened if you did.”

It remains unclear if re-signing Bogaerts is still a realistic proposition for the Red Sox, and many of the team’s actions over the last year (i.e. the signing of Trevor Story, or a low extension offer to Bogaerts last spring) would seem to suggest that the Sox are preparing for a future without Bogaerts on the roster.  Another hint could be Boston’s interest in Kolten Wong, as The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports that the Sox had some talks with the Brewers before Wong was dealt to the Mariners.

A source tells Speier that if the Red Sox had traded for Wong, “it 100 percent would not have taken [them] out of the market” to re-sign Bogaerts.  The Sox would have hypothetically used Bogaerts, Story, and Wong in the middle infield mix, or possibly even flipped Wong to another team in a trade if Bogaerts had indeed been re-signed.  While Wong seems overqualified for such a part-time role, “the Sox want to explore opportunities to add high-end depth” after injuries hampered the position-player mix in 2022.

If Bogaerts’ future in Boston is still up in the air, another familiar face might be a possibility for the team, as MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link) reports that the Red Sox were meeting today with Christian Vazquez’s agents.  Cotillo did note that this meeting might not directly involve Vazquez, as MDR Sports Management also represents several other players, including free agent catchers Robinson Chirinos and Roberto Perez.

Reese McGuire and Connor Wong are Boston’s incumbent catchers heading into the 2023 season, with prospect Ronaldo Hernandez and recent waiver claim Caleb Hamilton also in the mix.  It would seem like the Sox are at least exploring the market for more help behind the plate, given how Boston has been mentioned as one of the many teams with trade interest in the Athletics’ Sean Murphy.  However, Cotillo reports that there is “nothing going on” between the Red Sox and the top catcher on the free agent market, Willson Contreras.

Andrew Heaney was also on Boston’s radar this offseason, and Cotillo tweets that the Sox were one of the many teams who made the left-hander a contract offer.  The Red Sox fell short, however, as Heaney opted to sign with the Rangers for two years and $25MM in guaranteed money.

Catching Notes: Cubs, Murphy, Astros, Contreras, Cardinals

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9:45PM: The Cubs are also showing interest in Murphy, as per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link).

8:56PM: The Astros are the latest team to explore a trade for Athletics catcher Sean Murphy, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link).  Houston joins a lengthy list of suitors known to include such teams as the Guardians, Twins, White Sox, Red Sox, Rays, and Cardinals.

The A’s are surely commanding a high price tag in any Murphy deal, and the cost could possibly be a little steeper for one of Oakland’s AL West rivals.  Nonetheless, the Astros have a good amount of young talent that could catch the Athletics’ interest, and Houston might feel the acquisition cost is worth it to add a former Gold Glover who is under control through the 2025 season.

Defense and game-calling has long been a priority behind the plate for the Astros, which is why the team has stuck with Martin Maldonado even though Maldonado’s offense has sharply fallen off in the last two seasons.  However, the Astros did acquire Christian Vazquez at last year’s trade deadline, and Vazquez, Willson Contreras, and now Murphy has emerged on Houston’s radar this offseason.  Whereas Contreras could be fit into the lineup as a DH or as a left fielder, Murphy has played exclusively as a catcher during his pro career, and moving a strong defender like Murphy away from the catcher’s position could be seen as a bit of a waste.

That said, the Astros might also simply install Murphy as the regular catcher and move Maldonado into more of a clear backup role.  Maldonado is only under contract through the 2023 season, and thus Murphy provides more of a longer-term answer behind the plate.

If Houston didn’t want to meet Oakland’s demands for Murphy, signing Contreras would cost only money and a compensatory draft pick rather than prospect depth, which might be preferable for the Astros in the bigger picture.  Contreras has long been of interest to the Astros, and former general manager James Click had arranged a trade at the deadline that would have sent Jose Urquidy to the Cubs for Contreras, but Houston owner Jim Crane vetoed the proposed deal on advice from manager Dusty Baker.

With the Astros now set to meet with Contreras as a free agent, Baker clarified his objection to the midseason deal.  “It’s not that I didn’t want him, at the time, I just didn’t think it was the proper fit with two months to go in the season,” Baker told The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome and other reporters today.  “You have to learn the pitching staff, how we go about doing things, and I didn’t feel there was enough time to do that.”

Obtaining a more defensively-sound catcher like Vazquez was apparently more acceptable in Baker’s view, and it also certainly helped that Vazquez only cost the Astros two position-player prospects (Enmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu) rather than a solid pitcher like Urquidy.  Since Justin Verlander has now left the Astros to sign with the Mets, Urquidy has some added importance to an Astros rotation that is still quite strong, even without the AL Cy Young Award winner.

While the catching market is usually pretty thin, there have been plenty of rumblings about backstops this winter, given the presence of Contreras and Vazquez in the free agent market, as well as major trade chips (i.e. Murphy, or the Blue Jays’ and Braves’ catchers) all perhaps in play.  Since Yadier Molina has now retired, the Cardinals have one of the more pressing needs at the position, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that trading for Murphy “is atop their list” among the many options.  If the Cards traded for a catcher rather than spending bigger to sign a free agent like Contreras, Goold speculates that the team could then re-allocate any extra budget space towards a free agent, potentially even one of the remaining top shortstops like Dansby Swanson.

Twins Rumors: Correa, Arraez, Rotation, Catcher

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The Twins are set for another in-person meeting with Scott Boras this week to discuss Carlos Correa, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North Radio and 5 Eyewitness News reports in his latest podcast (Correa/Twins talk beginning at 10:10). The Twins have already discussed various contract structures with Boras and Correa, reportedly putting forth multiple offers.

Correa, of course, has a broad range of interest, having been connected to the Giants, Phillies, Cubs, Padres, Orioles and Dodgers, among others. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote last week that Correa could be the first of the four big-name shortstops to come off the board, calling his market “excellent” and noting that the Twins have been “making a strong push to re-sign him and build their franchise around” Correa. If, however, Correa ultimately signs elsewhere, Minnesota’s upcoming meeting with Boras could serve dual purposes; Boras also represents Xander Bogaerts, who is reportedly of interest to the Twins in the event that Correa departs.

While Correa is the focus at this point, pitching upgrades have been a perennial need at Target Field as well. The team has a decent rotation group consisting of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober, but each of Gray, Mahle and Maeda can become a free agent next winter. (Maeda is also returning from 2021 Tommy John surgery, so his workload could well be monitored.) The Twins have quite a few MLB-ready arms behind that group — Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Canterino — and could also get Chris Paddack back from Tommy John surgery next summer.

That said, the potential departure of three starters next winter and lack of proven options behind them at least has the Twins thinking creatively about ways to add high-end, controllable pitching. To that end, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports that Minnesota’s front office has at least discussed the possibility of trading reigning AL batting champion Luis Arraez — if the deal could net them a high-end rotation upgrade. To be clear, there’s no indication that the team plans to aggressively shop Arraez.

Arraez, 25, enjoyed an outstanding .316/.375/.420 output at the plate in 2022, tallying eight home runs, 31 doubles and a triple in 603 plate appearances. Since making his MLB debut in 2019, he’s been one of baseball’s hardest players to strike out, fanning in just 8.3% of his plate appearances and walking at an even-higher 8.7% clip. Arraez’s bat-to-ball skills are practically unmatched, and he’s been fairly disciplined, walking at a roughly league-average clip.

Defensively, Arraez climbed through the minors as a second baseman but has settled into a more nomadic position on the Twins’ roster. With Jorge Polanco locked in at second base (and unlikely to move back to shortstop, where he was a sub-par defender even before a pair of right ankle surgeries), Arraez has logged time at both infield corners, at designated hitter and in left field over the past few seasons. The Twins deployed him primarily at first base in 2022, due in part to injuries to Miguel Sano and Alex Kirilloff. Despite a lack of experience, he handled the position quite well in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved (4), Ultimate Zone Rating (2.2) and Outs Above Average (1).

Excellent as Arraez is on the whole, however, it might be tough for him alone to net the Twins the type of impact arm they’d require to actually consider moving him. At this point, while Arraez is still young, he’s already “only” under club control for another three seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn $5MM next season in his second year of arbitration as a Super Two player.

Given that the point of even considering an Arraez deal would be to acquire pitching they can control beyond the upcoming season, they’d likely be looking for at least two years of control in said starting pitcher; giving up three years of Arraez isn’t likely to return a high-end starter with multiple years of club control remaining — particularly not when (as Hayes lays out in greater detail), Arraez has a history of knee troubles dating back to a torn ACL as a minor leaguer in 2017. The Twins could add in some minor league talent to help sweeten any deal, but that’d only further complicate the equation. It’s certainly of note that they’re open to the idea, and it’d be a surprise if other teams didn’t reach out to see just what it might take to pry Arraez loose, but an actual trade seems like a long shot at this time.

The Twins’ other focus as they look toward the 2023 season and beyond has been behind the plate. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey has said he’d like to add another catcher to the mix, and the Twins have spoken at multiple points about wanting to deploy a timeshare behind the plate, splitting time fairly evenly between incumbent Ryan Jeffers — who thrives against left-handed pitching — and a new acquisition. A left-handed bat would best fit the bill, but any catcher who can provide some more offense against right-handed pitching would make some sense.

Wolfson suggests that the Twins don’t appear to be after Willson Contreras as of right now but have spoken to the Athletics, Blue Jays and Braves about their catching depth. The A’s are expected to trade Sean Murphy as the next step in their rebuilding process, while the Jays are dealing with something of a surplus, having Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno as MLB-caliber options on the 40-man roster. Atlanta has Travis d’Arnaud signed for $8MM this coming season plus a 2024 option at the same price, and William Contreras’ breakout could make it easier to part with d’Arnaud, speculatively speaking. The Braves also have veteran Manny Pina signed at a year and $4.5MM, but he played just five games last year before requiring season-ending wrist surgery and, as a career-long defensive-minded backup, wouldn’t fit the Twins’ stated preference of adding a catcher who can provide more offense.

As far as free agents go, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Twins are among the many teams with some interest in Christian Vazquez. While Vazquez is similar to Jeffers as a right-handed hitter who handles lefties better than righties, his career platoon splits are more even than those of Jeffers, who tattoos lefties but has been vastly below-average against right-handed opponents.

Vazquez, 32, is regarded as a premium defensive option as well, which further adds to his appeal. He’s thrown out a hefty 34% of opponents who attempt to steal against him, consistently drawn plus framing marks, and more broadly has been credited with 51 Defensive Runs Saved in parts of eight MLB seasons. Vazquez was a glove-first player for much of his early big league tenure, but dating back to 2019 he’s turned in a .271/.318/.416 batting line. We predicted a three-year, $27MM deal for Vazquez on our annual Top 50 Free Agent rankings, and Rosenthal reports that Vazquez is indeed likely to command a three-year deal based on the current interest.

However things shake out, it’s shaping up to be another active offseason for the Twins, who are going to be quite involved in both the shortstop and (to a lesser extent) catcher markets in the coming weeks. With their current projected payroll of about $98MM sitting more than $40MM shy of where they opened the 2023 season — and no indication that number serves as a ceiling — the Twins should have the latitude to pursue just about any target they choose, but it’s quickly become clear that their general offseason direction hinges on Correa.

Latest On Cardinals’ Free Agent Targets

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The Cardinals have yet to have much engagement with the offseason’s top-tier free agents, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  This relates to both starting pitchers and position players, as in regards to the top of the shortstop market, the Cards “have remained on the outskirts of the shortstop discussions, staying aware but not plunging in,” Goold writes.

This isn’t to say the the Cardinals aren’t active, as the team is focusing on its need behind the plate.  Cards officials will be meeting with the agents for Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez, and such other free agent catchers as Omar Narvaez and Mike Zunino have also been explored by the team, as well as trade candidates like the Athletics’ Sean Murphy or any of the Blue Jays’ three backstops.

Catcher is the most pressing need for the Cardinals, so it isn’t surprising that the team might be looking to get its catching situation settled before moving onto other targets.  With Adam Wainwright re-sigining and Nolan Arenado passing on his opt-out clause, St. Louis had two major bits of business settled before the offseason even officially began, perhaps giving the team some extra flexibility to proceed a bit more slowly on other matters.

Signing Contreras would certainly count as a headline-grabbing move, as the longtime Cubs catcher is projected to land a four-year, $84MM deal, and would also cost draft pick compensation since he rejected Chicago’s qualifying offer.  $84MM would count as the second-biggest contract the Cardinals have ever given to a free agent, behind only Matt Holliday’s $120MM deal from the 2009-10 offseason.  That deal was also a re-signing, as Holliday had become a familiar quantity to the Cardinals after spending the last two-plus months of the 2009 season in a St. Louis uniform.

In short, making a big free agent splash usually isn’t the preferred strategy of Cards president of baseball operations John Mozeliak.  This obviously doesn’t rule out Contreras altogether, but it might make St. Louis more open to trade talks with the A’s or Jays in the catching search.  That said, signing Contreras for just money and a draft pick might be preferable to giving up a big trade package for Murphy, Alejandro Kirk, or Gabriel Moreno.

On the pitching side, the Cardinals are known to be looking at re-signing with Jose Quintana.  For the bullpen, the Cards are targeting high-strikeout relievers — as Goold notes, the team is looking to add more swing-and-miss after finishing near the bottom of the league in strikeout percentage.  St. Louis is looking at pitching options both in North America and overseas.

Catching Market Rumors: Blue Jays, Contreras, Royals, Pirates

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Sean Murphy stands at the center of the offseason trade market for catchers, and the Oakland star is drawing plenty of interest. The Guardians, White Sox, Rays, Red Sox, Cardinals and even the Braves have all been linked to him recently, but the A’s are just one of two teams widely expected to trade a catcher this winter. The Blue Jays, who have a trio of Major League-caliber catchers on the roster — Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno — are also pondering the possibility of trading from that depth to address areas of need on the roster.

A trade involving one of the Toronto backstops, however, might not come together particularly quickly. In writing about the Twins’ desire to add to their catching corps, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported this week the Jays appear to be intent on waiting until some of the top names on the free-agent market have signed before they begin more earnestly engaging in talks with teams that miss out on their top targets. Jansen, with two years of club control remaining (as opposed to Kirk’s four and Moreno’s six), is the most logical trade option of the trio, but all three should draw considerable interest and prompt offers of some extent.

It’s worth bearing in mind, too, that one offer could accelerate the Jays’ willingness to make a deal, so even if their current preference is to let the market play out, that’s not a guarantee they’ll wait until Willson Contreras, Christian Vazquez and perhaps Murphy all have new teams before making a swap.

A few notes on the rest of the catching market…

  • The Marlins made an inquiry with Willson Contreras’ representatives but aren’t expected to be prominent players in his market, per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. Unsurprisingly, Heyman suggests that Contreras’ price tag was deemed too steep for the Fish, who received underwhelming production from Jacob Stallings after acquiring him from the Pirates last offseason. Miami has been linked to trade interest in Contreras at multiple points in the past, so it’s only logical they’d at least gauge his price tag now that he’s on the open market. The 30-year-old is the top catcher available in free agency and seems likely to command a guarantee of four-plus years after a .243/.349/.466 showing with the Cubs. He rejected a qualifying offer from Chicago, so he’d cost any signing team a draft choice.
  • The Royals have drawn some trade interest in young catcher/outfielder MJ Melendez, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The 24-year-old made his major league debut this year and hit .217/.313/.393 with 18 home runs across 534 plate appearances. That’s roughly league average output once one accounts for the diminished offensive environment and Kansas City’s cavernous ballpark, by measure of wRC+. Melendez, a recent top prospect, showed a promising combination of power and plate discipline while splitting his time between catcher, the corner outfield and designated hitter. Kansas City can control Melendez for six seasons and seems unlikely to deal him, although his path to everyday reps behind the plate is blocked by face of the franchise Salvador Perez. The seven-time All-Star is under contract through 2025, and the deal contains a club option for the ’26 season. Rosenthal unsurprisingly writes that Kansas City has no interest in trading Perez.
  • Roberto Perez’s first season with the Pirates was cut short after 21 games by a severe hamstring strain that required season-ending surgery. The veteran backstop, soon to turn 34, is back on the open market. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette speaks with a number of members of the Bucs’ pitching staff who hope the team re-signs Perez. Hurlers like JT Brubaker and Chase De Jong raved to Mackey about the longtime Cleveland backstop’s ability to connect with his pitchers and call a game. Perez has never been an impactful hitter, but he’s a two-time Gold Glove winner. The Pirates are sure to bring in some catching help this winter, as prospect Endy Rodriguez is currently the only player at the position on the 40-man roster.

Astros To Meet With Willson Contreras

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Yesterday, the Astros introduced their new signee José Abreu and owner Jim Crane took some questions from the media. “We have to look at the catching, maybe another outfielder, and you can never have enough pitching,” Crane said, per Chandler Rome of The Houston Chronicle. In relation to the catching side of their pursuits, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the club plans to meet with Willson Contreras at the Winter Meetings, which go from this Sunday, December 4, to Wednesday, December 7.

Their interest is perfectly understandable, given that Contreras is one of the better catchers in the league, particularly at the plate. This year, he hit 22 home runs and slashed .243/.349/.466. His production has always been above average, but this year’s wRC+ of 132 was a career high. His defense isn’t rated as strongly, but that could make him a yin to the yang that is Martín Maldonado, who generally hits at a below average level but is stronger on the other side of the ball.

Contreras almost became an Astro months ago, as the club apparently agreed to acquire him from the Cubs in exchange for pitcher José Urquidy. However, Crane reportedly stepped in and put the kibosh on the deal. Instead, the Astros pivoted to Christian Vázquez, acquiring him from the Red Sox. Vázquez is now a free agent, so Houston once again will need a catcher to pair with Maldonado.

Crane has subsequently dispatched general manager James Click and now seems to be running the baseball operations for the club, with a new general manager unlikely to be hired until the new year. Though Crane didn’t like the deadline deal, Contreras is now a free agent, making it more straightforward to attain him at this point. He did receive and reject a qualifying offer, however, meaning the Astros would forfeit their second highest pick in the upcoming draft and $500K of their international bonus pool if they did end up signing him.

In terms of the money, the Astros still have plenty to work with, even with their recent aggression. Their signings of Abreu and Rafael Montero bring their payroll to $183MM, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $198MM. In his remarks yesterday, relayed by Rome, Crane said “we certainly have the ability to go at or over” the luxury tax. This year’s lowest CBT threshold will be $233MM, giving the Astros about $35MM of wiggle room remaining between them and the line. MLBTR predicted Contreras to get a contract of $84MM over four years, which would be an annual average value of $21MM.

Fitting Contreras into the remaining funds before the luxury tax line would be easy, but the club is also looking for outfield help as well. However, Rosenthal notes that part of the appeal in Contreras for the Astros is that he can play left field, theoretically lessening their need to bring in another outfielder. Contreras does indeed have some limited outfield action on his résumé, but most of that came in his rookie season in 2016. Over the past three seasons combined, he’s only seen a single inning on the grass.

Having Contreras fill a backup catcher role while also occasionally serving as the designated hitter and playing some outfield would be a creative way to keep his bat in the lineup while Maldonado catches but it would also come with risk. Though Rosenthal notes that the left field area at Minute Maid Park is relatively small, it’s hard to know how Contreras would fare out there given his lack of recent playing time in that position. Also, on days where Maldonado is catching and Contreras is the designated hitter, the club would likely need to keep a third catcher on the roster in order to avoid a situation where Maldonado is injured and Contreras has to move behind the plate, causing the team to lose their DH.

From Contreras’s point of view, if he wants to keep catching, it might not be appealing to suddenly be bumped into this type of utility position compared to simply signing to be another club’s starting backstop. The Cardinals and Tigers have been connected to him in rumors already, while other clubs like the Red Sox and Diamondbacks are known to be looking for help behind the plate. Then again, the Astros are the defending champions and don’t seem to be taking their foot off the gas pedal this winter. Perhaps moving from a rebuilding Cubs team to a surefire contender would be appealing enough that Contreras would embrace this unique plan.

Mozeliak: Cardinals Seeking Catching Help, Left-Handed Bat

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The Cardinals bid farewell to a pair of franchise icons at season’s end, as Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina officially closed the books on their playing career. For the first time in nearly two decades, St. Louis enters an offseason unsure of who’ll receive the bulk of the playing time behind the dish the following season. While the Cardinals have in-house options in Andrew Knizner and Ivan Herrera, president of baseball operations made clear in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM this week that he’s actively exploring the market for catching upgrades.

“Clearly, with Yadi retiring, we know we need to upgrade at catching — especially when you think about the day-to-day demands of that role,” said Mozeliak. “That’s something that we’re going to look at, whether it’s trade or free agency.”

Asked about interest in top catcher Willson Contreras, Mozeliak declined to publicly comment on the free agent’s potential market, calling that a “dangerous game” and instead simply doubled down on interest in catching help: “We are in the catching market.”

Contreras, a longtime division rival, is this year’s top free-agent catcher, with former Red Sox and Astros backstop Christian Vazquez the clear No. 2 option. They’re not the only names available, of course, but they’re the two clear-cut starting catchers coming off strong 2022 campaigns. Rebound candidates include Omar Narvaez, Mike Zunino and Tucker Barnhart, all of whom had down 2022 seasons but were quite recently considered quality starting options behind the dish.

As Mozeliak alluded to, the trade market should produce a handful of alternatives. Oakland’s Sean Murphy will be available, though the asking price for three years of his services will be understandably steep. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have a trio of starting-caliber catchers on the roster in Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and top prospect Gabriel Moreno. Jansen, with two years of remaining club control to Kirk’s five and Moreno’s six, is generally seen as the likeliest of the group to move.

Whatever path the Cards take, an addition at catcher feels like a foregone conclusion. Knizner, 27, has served as the primary backup to Molina in recent seasons and managed only a .204/.292/.288 slash through 536 big league plate appearances. Optimists might suggest that he’d improve with more consistent playing time than he received Molina and his iron-man approach to catching, but Knizner has also drawn sub-par defensive marks along the way. The 22-year-old Herrera went 2-for-18 in his MLB debut this year but turned in a solid .268/.374/.396 line in Triple-A. Still, a team hoping to vie for a return to the postseason could use more certainty behind the dish, perhaps easing the well-regarded Herrera into a larger opportunity — as opposed to simply throwing him into a trial-by-fire run at the starting job.

Catching help isn’t all that’s on the menu this winter for Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch and the rest of the front office, though. Mozeliak didn’t specify a position but did voice hope of adding a left-handed bat to help balance out his lineup. Given that most of the available catching options are right-handed bats — Narvaez and the switch-hitting Barnhart being the exceptions — it’s likely the Cards will have to make an additional move to achieve that goal.

“When you look at our offense, trying to find something from the left side to try to help bolster our day-to-day lineup is something we think we could benefit from,” said Mozeliak. “…”When you think about our club from the left side, we could just use a little extra pop. Some of our better hitters are right-handed, and so we’re just looking for more balance in our lineup.

The Cards aren’t totally devoid of left-handed bats but do skew more toward the right side of the dish — particularly when it comes to the team’s power hitters. Lars Nootbaar showed some impressive power from the left side of the dish and likely secured himself a spot in the 2023 outfield, but he’s the main source of left-handed pop the Cardinals have at the moment. Rookie of the Year finalist Brendan Donovan had an outstanding all-around season but hit just five homers and posted a lowly .097 ISO (slugging minus batting average). Switch-hitters Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson were both vastly better hitters from the right side of the plate than the left. Twenty-two-year-old Nolan Gorman certainly has power from the left side of the plate but struggled increasingly as his rookie season wore on.

Last offseason’s signing of Corey Dickerson seemed intended to provide some help in this space, and while Dickerson rebounded from an awful start to finish with a roughly league-average batting line, he’s again a free agent and the Cardinals are surely hoping for more than average output from whoever is acquired to fill this role. The free-agent market isn’t exactly teeming with productive left-handed hitters who could be plugged into the St. Louis lineup, though veterans like Michael Brantley, Michael Conforto and old friend Matt Carpenter are all available. The former two will both be returning from shoulder surgery, whereas the latter enjoyed an otherworldly rebound with the Yankees before suffering a fractured foot that derailed his comeback effort.

As is so often heard from baseball operations leaders, Mozeliak also touched on the adage that a team can never have too much pitching, noting that “you’re always just one injury away from being in a tough spot.” While he didn’t characterize the Cardinals’ search for rotation depth as quite the same level of priority as a catcher and left-handed bat, Mozeliak suggested that the Cardinals will “keep the pulse” of the starting pitching market as the offseason progresses.

With Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Steven Matz, Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson, the Cardinals have at least six rotation options — Mozeliak also listed Drew VerHagen as a potential depth option there — but bolstering that group with a swingman or some veterans on minor league deals could well be on the eventual to-do list.

Crane: Justin Verlander Seeking Deal Similar To Max Scherzer’s

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Justin Verlander is a free agent without much precedent. A favorite to claim his third career Cy Young award this evening, he’s back on the open market after bypassing a $25MM player option with the Astros.

Verlander’s a fascinating case for teams. He turns 40 years old in February, which’ll certainly cap the length of his next deal. Yet he’s still among the top handful of pitchers in the sport, which sets him up for one of the largest per-year salaries in MLB history. Astros owner Jim Crane — who has taken a very hands-on role in the Houston front office and played a key role in bringing Verlander back last winter — told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that Verlander has looked to last winter’s biggest free agent pitching contract as precedent. His former teammate Max Scherzer inked a three-year, $130MM guarantee with the Mets — a deal that also allowed him to opt out after the 2023 season.

“I know him well, so we’ve been pretty candid,” Crane told McTaggart. “He’s looking at the comp, which I think there’s only one or two. … J.V.’s probably got a few years left, and he wants to make the most of it. I think he’s going to test the market on that.”

The Scherzer deal indeed seems the closest comparison to Verlander, although their situations aren’t perfectly analogous. While both are all-time great pitchers still pitching near the top of their games deeper into their careers, a three-year bet on Scherzer was probably easier for a team to stomach than that same term for Verlander. Scherzer signed in advance of his age-37 season, while the latter will be three years older at the start of his next contract. Verlander’s two years removed from a Tommy John procedure that cost him almost all of the 2020-21 campaigns, but he’s bounced back to pitch at pre-surgery levels this year. Scherzer had avoided any injury of that magnitude in the past decade, topping 170 innings in every full season since 2008 before this year.

While that seems to tip things in Scherzer’s favor, their pure performance track records are mostly without complaint. Verlander had a 1.75 ERA across 175 innings this past season; Scherzer posted a 2.46 mark in 2021. The latter missed more bats, striking out 34.1% of opponents against Verlander’s 27.8% mark. Fanning just under 28% of opponents is still excellent for a starting pitcher, though, and Verlander maintained top-tier control while sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball.

To no one’s surprise, Crane suggested the Astros hope to bring Verlander back. However, there appears to be a notable gap between the two sides on contract terms right now. While Crane didn’t specify the lengths the Astros are willing to go to retain the nine-time All-Star, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports Crane has thus far been reluctant to go past a two-year guarantee in the $60MM – $70MM range. That’s certainly not to say the Houston owner couldn’t later raise the offer, but Rome characterizes that as a rough line the team has set at present and suggests the Astros are very unlikely to offer a third guaranteed year.

Whether another team would be willing to go three years is one of the most interesting storylines of the offseason, and MLBTR forecasts Verlander for a three-year, $120MM guarantee. In any event, it doesn’t seem as if the Astros and Verlander are going to come to any agreement within the first few days of the offseason. The right-hander has spoken a number of times about his respect for Crane and affinity for the organization generally, but the owner’s comments don’t suggest the future Hall of Famer is looking to take a notable discount to stick around for a fifth full season with the defending World Series champs.

One could argue the Astros are better off letting Verlander walk and reallocating their spending capacity. They’re sure to face competition from a number of big-market, win-now teams. Clubs like the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets and Phillies figure to check in; Andy Martino of SNY wrote yesterday the Mets have discussed internally the possibility of a Verlander pursuit, presumably as an alternative if Jacob deGrom departs in free agency.

Houston is one of the sport’s biggest spenders themselves, and they don’t figure to be facing acute budgetary limitations coming off a championship. Yet Rome points out the Astros under Crane have tended to shy away from long-term free agent commitments. They also have questions at first base, at one of left field or designated hitter (depending on the team’s plans for Yordan Alvarez) and, to a lesser extent, in the bullpen.

Roster Resource projects their 2023 commitments just under $164MM with a luxury tax number around $179MM. Topping this year’s approximate $174MM Opening Day payroll feels like a given, and they’re around $54MM away from the $233MM base luxury tax threshold. Houston could certainly make a Verlander deal work, but an annual salary approaching or topping the $43.333MM Scherzer secured would push them fairly close to CBT territory without addressing anywhere else on the roster. Even if Verlander departs, a rotation of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and top prospect Hunter Brown (plus any external additions) would be among the best in the sport.

As far those other needs go, Crane tells McTaggart he’s interested in bringing back Yuli Gurriel at first base. He was less committal on Michael Brantley, whom Crane said could need to wait until March until there’s clarity on his recovery from this summer’s right shoulder surgery. Crane also pointed to a desire to add a left-handed bullpen arm, an obvious question after the team bought out Will Smith at the start of the offseason. He didn’t speak on free agent catcher/DH Willson Contreras, to whom the club has previously been linked, but Rome reports that Houston indeed has “strong interest” in the former Cubs backstop.

12 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 14 players who received qualifying offers have rejected those one-year, $19.65MM contracts in favor of testing the open market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Martin Perez and Joc Pederson are the only two who accepted a QO. Each of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Anderson have rejected the deal. Anderson is already in agreement on a three-year contract with the Angels.

None of the news is all that surprising, aside from perhaps Anderson’s early multi-year strike with the Halos. Perez and Pederson were two of the three most likely candidates to take the QO. That the Giants tagged Pederson at all was a move few saw coming, and most believed he’d indeed take the QO once it was put forth.

None of Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Bassitt or Contreras likely gave much thought to the possibility. Eovaldi and Rizzo were more borderline candidates, but the latter quickly returns to the Yankees on a multi-year deal that’ll pay him around the QO rate over two guaranteed seasons. Eovaldi has yet to sign, but he’ll presumably continue to search for a longer-term contract after taking advantage of the five days to scour the market.

The clubs that saw a free agent decline a qualifying offer now stand to receive draft compensation if that player signs elsewhere. The value of the compensatory pick depends on a team’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and/or whether they paid the luxury tax in 2022. That’s also true of the draft choices and potentially international signing bonus space a team would have to forfeit to sign a qualified free agent from another team.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the forfeiture each team would have to surrender to sign a qualified free agent earlier this month. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at the compensation each club would receive if one of these players signed elsewhere.

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