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Mozeliak: Cardinals Seeking Catching Help, Left-Handed Bat

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The Cardinals bid farewell to a pair of franchise icons at season’s end, as Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina officially closed the books on their playing career. For the first time in nearly two decades, St. Louis enters an offseason unsure of who’ll receive the bulk of the playing time behind the dish the following season. While the Cardinals have in-house options in Andrew Knizner and Ivan Herrera, president of baseball operations made clear in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM this week that he’s actively exploring the market for catching upgrades.

“Clearly, with Yadi retiring, we know we need to upgrade at catching — especially when you think about the day-to-day demands of that role,” said Mozeliak. “That’s something that we’re going to look at, whether it’s trade or free agency.”

Asked about interest in top catcher Willson Contreras, Mozeliak declined to publicly comment on the free agent’s potential market, calling that a “dangerous game” and instead simply doubled down on interest in catching help: “We are in the catching market.”

Contreras, a longtime division rival, is this year’s top free-agent catcher, with former Red Sox and Astros backstop Christian Vazquez the clear No. 2 option. They’re not the only names available, of course, but they’re the two clear-cut starting catchers coming off strong 2022 campaigns. Rebound candidates include Omar Narvaez, Mike Zunino and Tucker Barnhart, all of whom had down 2022 seasons but were quite recently considered quality starting options behind the dish.

As Mozeliak alluded to, the trade market should produce a handful of alternatives. Oakland’s Sean Murphy will be available, though the asking price for three years of his services will be understandably steep. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have a trio of starting-caliber catchers on the roster in Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and top prospect Gabriel Moreno. Jansen, with two years of remaining club control to Kirk’s five and Moreno’s six, is generally seen as the likeliest of the group to move.

Whatever path the Cards take, an addition at catcher feels like a foregone conclusion. Knizner, 27, has served as the primary backup to Molina in recent seasons and managed only a .204/.292/.288 slash through 536 big league plate appearances. Optimists might suggest that he’d improve with more consistent playing time than he received Molina and his iron-man approach to catching, but Knizner has also drawn sub-par defensive marks along the way. The 22-year-old Herrera went 2-for-18 in his MLB debut this year but turned in a solid .268/.374/.396 line in Triple-A. Still, a team hoping to vie for a return to the postseason could use more certainty behind the dish, perhaps easing the well-regarded Herrera into a larger opportunity — as opposed to simply throwing him into a trial-by-fire run at the starting job.

Catching help isn’t all that’s on the menu this winter for Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch and the rest of the front office, though. Mozeliak didn’t specify a position but did voice hope of adding a left-handed bat to help balance out his lineup. Given that most of the available catching options are right-handed bats — Narvaez and the switch-hitting Barnhart being the exceptions — it’s likely the Cards will have to make an additional move to achieve that goal.

“When you look at our offense, trying to find something from the left side to try to help bolster our day-to-day lineup is something we think we could benefit from,” said Mozeliak. “…”When you think about our club from the left side, we could just use a little extra pop. Some of our better hitters are right-handed, and so we’re just looking for more balance in our lineup.

The Cards aren’t totally devoid of left-handed bats but do skew more toward the right side of the dish — particularly when it comes to the team’s power hitters. Lars Nootbaar showed some impressive power from the left side of the dish and likely secured himself a spot in the 2023 outfield, but he’s the main source of left-handed pop the Cardinals have at the moment. Rookie of the Year finalist Brendan Donovan had an outstanding all-around season but hit just five homers and posted a lowly .097 ISO (slugging minus batting average). Switch-hitters Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson were both vastly better hitters from the right side of the plate than the left. Twenty-two-year-old Nolan Gorman certainly has power from the left side of the plate but struggled increasingly as his rookie season wore on.

Last offseason’s signing of Corey Dickerson seemed intended to provide some help in this space, and while Dickerson rebounded from an awful start to finish with a roughly league-average batting line, he’s again a free agent and the Cardinals are surely hoping for more than average output from whoever is acquired to fill this role. The free-agent market isn’t exactly teeming with productive left-handed hitters who could be plugged into the St. Louis lineup, though veterans like Michael Brantley, Michael Conforto and old friend Matt Carpenter are all available. The former two will both be returning from shoulder surgery, whereas the latter enjoyed an otherworldly rebound with the Yankees before suffering a fractured foot that derailed his comeback effort.

As is so often heard from baseball operations leaders, Mozeliak also touched on the adage that a team can never have too much pitching, noting that “you’re always just one injury away from being in a tough spot.” While he didn’t characterize the Cardinals’ search for rotation depth as quite the same level of priority as a catcher and left-handed bat, Mozeliak suggested that the Cardinals will “keep the pulse” of the starting pitching market as the offseason progresses.

With Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Steven Matz, Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson, the Cardinals have at least six rotation options — Mozeliak also listed Drew VerHagen as a potential depth option there — but bolstering that group with a swingman or some veterans on minor league deals could well be on the eventual to-do list.

Crane: Justin Verlander Seeking Deal Similar To Max Scherzer’s

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Justin Verlander is a free agent without much precedent. A favorite to claim his third career Cy Young award this evening, he’s back on the open market after bypassing a $25MM player option with the Astros.

Verlander’s a fascinating case for teams. He turns 40 years old in February, which’ll certainly cap the length of his next deal. Yet he’s still among the top handful of pitchers in the sport, which sets him up for one of the largest per-year salaries in MLB history. Astros owner Jim Crane — who has taken a very hands-on role in the Houston front office and played a key role in bringing Verlander back last winter — told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that Verlander has looked to last winter’s biggest free agent pitching contract as precedent. His former teammate Max Scherzer inked a three-year, $130MM guarantee with the Mets — a deal that also allowed him to opt out after the 2023 season.

“I know him well, so we’ve been pretty candid,” Crane told McTaggart. “He’s looking at the comp, which I think there’s only one or two. … J.V.’s probably got a few years left, and he wants to make the most of it. I think he’s going to test the market on that.”

The Scherzer deal indeed seems the closest comparison to Verlander, although their situations aren’t perfectly analogous. While both are all-time great pitchers still pitching near the top of their games deeper into their careers, a three-year bet on Scherzer was probably easier for a team to stomach than that same term for Verlander. Scherzer signed in advance of his age-37 season, while the latter will be three years older at the start of his next contract. Verlander’s two years removed from a Tommy John procedure that cost him almost all of the 2020-21 campaigns, but he’s bounced back to pitch at pre-surgery levels this year. Scherzer had avoided any injury of that magnitude in the past decade, topping 170 innings in every full season since 2008 before this year.

While that seems to tip things in Scherzer’s favor, their pure performance track records are mostly without complaint. Verlander had a 1.75 ERA across 175 innings this past season; Scherzer posted a 2.46 mark in 2021. The latter missed more bats, striking out 34.1% of opponents against Verlander’s 27.8% mark. Fanning just under 28% of opponents is still excellent for a starting pitcher, though, and Verlander maintained top-tier control while sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball.

To no one’s surprise, Crane suggested the Astros hope to bring Verlander back. However, there appears to be a notable gap between the two sides on contract terms right now. While Crane didn’t specify the lengths the Astros are willing to go to retain the nine-time All-Star, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports Crane has thus far been reluctant to go past a two-year guarantee in the $60MM – $70MM range. That’s certainly not to say the Houston owner couldn’t later raise the offer, but Rome characterizes that as a rough line the team has set at present and suggests the Astros are very unlikely to offer a third guaranteed year.

Whether another team would be willing to go three years is one of the most interesting storylines of the offseason, and MLBTR forecasts Verlander for a three-year, $120MM guarantee. In any event, it doesn’t seem as if the Astros and Verlander are going to come to any agreement within the first few days of the offseason. The right-hander has spoken a number of times about his respect for Crane and affinity for the organization generally, but the owner’s comments don’t suggest the future Hall of Famer is looking to take a notable discount to stick around for a fifth full season with the defending World Series champs.

One could argue the Astros are better off letting Verlander walk and reallocating their spending capacity. They’re sure to face competition from a number of big-market, win-now teams. Clubs like the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets and Phillies figure to check in; Andy Martino of SNY wrote yesterday the Mets have discussed internally the possibility of a Verlander pursuit, presumably as an alternative if Jacob deGrom departs in free agency.

Houston is one of the sport’s biggest spenders themselves, and they don’t figure to be facing acute budgetary limitations coming off a championship. Yet Rome points out the Astros under Crane have tended to shy away from long-term free agent commitments. They also have questions at first base, at one of left field or designated hitter (depending on the team’s plans for Yordan Alvarez) and, to a lesser extent, in the bullpen.

Roster Resource projects their 2023 commitments just under $164MM with a luxury tax number around $179MM. Topping this year’s approximate $174MM Opening Day payroll feels like a given, and they’re around $54MM away from the $233MM base luxury tax threshold. Houston could certainly make a Verlander deal work, but an annual salary approaching or topping the $43.333MM Scherzer secured would push them fairly close to CBT territory without addressing anywhere else on the roster. Even if Verlander departs, a rotation of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and top prospect Hunter Brown (plus any external additions) would be among the best in the sport.

As far those other needs go, Crane tells McTaggart he’s interested in bringing back Yuli Gurriel at first base. He was less committal on Michael Brantley, whom Crane said could need to wait until March until there’s clarity on his recovery from this summer’s right shoulder surgery. Crane also pointed to a desire to add a left-handed bullpen arm, an obvious question after the team bought out Will Smith at the start of the offseason. He didn’t speak on free agent catcher/DH Willson Contreras, to whom the club has previously been linked, but Rome reports that Houston indeed has “strong interest” in the former Cubs backstop.

12 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 14 players who received qualifying offers have rejected those one-year, $19.65MM contracts in favor of testing the open market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Martin Perez and Joc Pederson are the only two who accepted a QO. Each of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Anderson have rejected the deal. Anderson is already in agreement on a three-year contract with the Angels.

None of the news is all that surprising, aside from perhaps Anderson’s early multi-year strike with the Halos. Perez and Pederson were two of the three most likely candidates to take the QO. That the Giants tagged Pederson at all was a move few saw coming, and most believed he’d indeed take the QO once it was put forth.

None of Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Bassitt or Contreras likely gave much thought to the possibility. Eovaldi and Rizzo were more borderline candidates, but the latter quickly returns to the Yankees on a multi-year deal that’ll pay him around the QO rate over two guaranteed seasons. Eovaldi has yet to sign, but he’ll presumably continue to search for a longer-term contract after taking advantage of the five days to scour the market.

The clubs that saw a free agent decline a qualifying offer now stand to receive draft compensation if that player signs elsewhere. The value of the compensatory pick depends on a team’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and/or whether they paid the luxury tax in 2022. That’s also true of the draft choices and potentially international signing bonus space a team would have to forfeit to sign a qualified free agent from another team.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the forfeiture each team would have to surrender to sign a qualified free agent earlier this month. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at the compensation each club would receive if one of these players signed elsewhere.

Willson Contreras To Decline Qualifying Offer

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Catcher Willson Contreras will reject the Cubs’ qualifying offer and instead test the open market this winter, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers tweets. The Cubs, who surprisingly did not trade Contreras at the deadline — a deal sending him to Houston was reportedly nixed by Astros ownership — made the easy call to instead make the one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offer to their longtime catcher. Contreras always appeared overwhelmingly likely to decline the offer. He’ll now seek a multi-year deal in free agency.

The 30-year-old Contreras will head into free agency on the heels of his fourth career season of 20-plus homers and 20-plus doubles. The three-time All-Star and 2016 World Series champion slashed .243/.346/.466 in what seems likely to be his final season as a member of the Cubs. Chicago had multiple opportunities to extend Contreras over the years, with the player himself publicly expressing his desire to stay along the way. It never appeared that the team made a strong effort to sign Contreras for the long haul, however, and with veteran Yan Gomes signed through 2023, the Cubs have at least one alternative option (though there’s a good chance they add another via free agency or trade).

Contreras’ defense has become something of a talking point going back to the trade deadline, though some of that talk is perhaps overblown. It’s generally rare for starting catchers to change hands at the deadline, as learning an entirely new staff on the fly and in the middle of a postseason push is a difficult task for any backstop. That concern, of course, won’t exist with a free-agent signing, as Contreras will have an entire offseason and Spring Training to familiarize himself with a new team’s staff.

In terms of actual defensive metrics, Contreras boasts a 30% caught-stealing rate that’s comfortably above league average and is regarded as having one of the best throwing arms of any catcher in the game. Statcast credits him for the 11th-best poptime of any catcher in baseball and also feels that his framing has been average or slightly above over the past three seasons. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at -1 in 2022 but credited him with a +8 mark just one year prior. It’s fair to say that Contreras isn’t an elite defensive backstop, and over the course of a multi-year deal that stretches into his mid-30s, he may spend additional time at DH or another position, such as first base. None of that means he’s a defensive liability in the short term, however.

Because Contreras rejected a QO, any team that signs him will have to forfeit at least one draft pick. Luxury-paying clubs will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in next year’s draft and will see their international bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Teams that were neither luxury tax payors nor revenue-sharing recipients will surrender their second-highest pick and see their international pool reduced by $500K. Revenue-sharing recipients would “only” have to surrender their third-highest pick. The Cubs, as a team that neither paid the luxury tax nor received revenue sharing, would receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 in next year’s draft (typically in the No. 75 overall range).

NL Central Notes: Brewers Pitching, Cardinals, Reynolds

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Heading into the off-season, the Brewers have a number of quality players and like any smaller market team, their dwindling years of control make them speculative trade candidates. Star pitchers Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are both entering their final two seasons of control, but according to Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Brewers are more likely to add to their roster around those two than look to deal them.

Burnes followed up last year’s NL Cy Young winning campaign with another brilliant season, throwing 202 innings of 2.94 ERA ball. He struck out 243 batters (1st in NL) and while he’s not a finalist for the Cy Young award in 2022, he’ll certainly receive some down-ballot votes. Woodruff finished fifth in Cy Young voting last year, and pitched to a 3.05 ERA across 153 1/3 innings in 2022. Woodruff is due $11MM in arbitration, while Burns slightly tops that with $11.4MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’ projections. A trade of either could give the Brewers farm system – which ranked 13th on Baseball America’s mid-season rankings – a massive boost.

After missing the playoffs for the first time since 2017 and finishing seven games back of the Cardinals, it might’ve been an opportune time to retool a little and replenish their farm system, but instead it appears they’ll look to bounce back by adding to their current core in 2023. According to RosterResource, the Brewers payroll currently projects at around $130MM, $7MM shy of their final mark in 2022. While it’s unclear if the Brewers plan to increase payroll, as things stand that doesn’t leave a ton of wiggle room to improve and try and catch the Cardinals, though they could opt to non-tender some of their arbitration-eligible players to free up some payroll space.

Here’s some more from around the National League Central:

  • The Cardinals have a clear need at catcher following the retirement of Yadier Molina, and it seems they could fill that hole with the top free agent catcher Willson Contreras. According to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, the Cards are one team (alongside the Tigers and Astros) to have expressed interest in Contreras. The slugging catcher hit 22 home runs and slashed .243/.349/.466 in 113 games this year with the Cubs. They did issue him with a qualifying offer, so the Cardinals would have to forfeit a draft pick in the event they did sign him. Currently Andrew Knizner is the top catcher on the Cardinals depth chart, but he profiles as more of a backup so it’s not surprising to see the team linked with free agent catchers.
  • Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds’ elite production and years of control – along with Pittsburgh’s ongoing rebuild – have made him one of the most coveted trade pieces in recent years, but according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Bucs are unlikely to trade him this off-season. Reynolds can be a free agent after the 2025 season, and despite their second-straight 100-loss year, Morosi says the Pirates believe they can be competitive within that window. Reynolds hit .262/.345/.461 with 27 home runs in 2022, a solid year but down on his lofty standards. A year ago, Reynolds slashed .302/.390/.522 and finished eleventh in NL MVP voting. On the whole, Reynolds is a quality hitter that almost any major league team would find room for. Defensively, Reynolds has split time between left and center fields, but grades out better in left with seven Defensive Runs Saved there in his career, against -16 in center. He’s put up 13.6 bWAR across four seasons (including the pandemic-shortened 2020 year) and has given Pittsburgh a star to cheer for through some lean years. Ultimately, there’s reasonable cases to be made for and against trading Reynolds, and while Morosi’s tweet doesn’t rule out a trade by any stretch, given Pittsburgh’s turned down trade interest in recent years there’s a good chance they keep him and look to build around him again in 2023.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:

As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.

If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.

Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.

Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.

The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.

The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.

That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.

Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.

Latest On Market For Willson Contreras

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Free agency commences in a few days, and Willson Contreras will be the unquestioned top backstop available. The career-long Cub is certain to receive and reject a qualifying offer from Chicago while his representatives at Octagon set out in search of a strong multi-year pact.

While clubs can’t formally begin to discuss contract terms with other teams’ free agents until Thursday, they’ve no doubt identified players of interest with the offseason underway. A few teams outside of Chicago have already loosely emerged in the Contreras market. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted this morning the Tigers have interest in the three-time All-Star, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link) hears the Astros are contemplating a free agent pursuit.

It’s easy to see the link in both cases. Detroit is led by first-year president of baseball operations Scott Harris, who worked in the Cubs front office through the end of the 2019 season. Harris’ familiarity with Contreras doesn’t on its own give Detroit much of a leg up in free agency, but there’s a clear opportunity for them to pursue catching help. Detroit sees Tucker Barnhart hit free agency, and he looks unlikely to return after a rough year. Eric Haase has decent power and could be an immediate catching option after hitting .254/.305/.443 in 110 games, but he’s never rated highly defensively and may be a better fit for increased work in left field and/or at designated hitter.

Harris declined comment on Contreras specifically when speaking with reporters at the GM Meetings this evening (via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press). However, he broadly sounded open to the idea of adding catching help from outside the organization. Harris noted the presence of some internal prospect talent — presumably primarily in reference to former second-round pick Dillon Dingler and to 2021 11th-rounder Josh Crouch — but downplayed the likelihood of anyone from the system seizing that job for 2023. Neither Dingler nor Crouch needs to be added to the 40-man roster this winter, and neither has yet reached Triple-A. Whether Detroit should be willing to surrender a draft choice for a qualified free agent on the heels of a 66-win season is fair to ask, but it seems likely the Tigers will address catcher in some form over the coming months.

The Astros’ interest in Contreras dates back at least to this past summer. The front office arranged a deal that would’ve sent José Urquidy to the Cubs for Contreras at the deadline, but Houston owner Jim Crane vetoed it. Houston pivoted to land Christian Vázquez from the Red Sox instead, but he’s now the #2 backstop behind Contreras in free agency. A Vázquez reunion seems unlikely after he saw sporadic playing time behind Martín Maldonado down the stretch. Maldonado’s presence could be a roadblock to a Contreras pursuit as well, given the World Series champion’s longstanding affinity for the defensive specialist, but Contreras could be such a marked offensive upgrade the team is willing to consider scaling back Maldonado’s playing time to add an impact bat.

Certainly, interest in Contreras will extend far beyond two teams. High-ranking executives with the Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Red Sox have already gone on record about an openness to adding behind the plate. Katie Woo of the Athletic tweets the Cardinals consider catcher to be their #1 priority, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak open to both free agent and trade possibilities. The Cardinals have long prioritized elite defense behind the dish with Yadier Molina, perhaps making them an odd fit for a bat-first player like Contreras, but Woo relays that St. Louis isn’t solely looking for defensive stalwarts but is prioritizing all-around impact from the position.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, may have more trepidation about Contreras’ mixed reputation as a game-caller. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes that Boston is unlikely to make a serious run at the 30-year-old backstop as they place an emphasis on managing a pitching staff. Concerns about Contreras’ game-calling acumen were mentioned at the deadline as well, perhaps playing a role in the Cubs not finding an offer that inspired them to part ways with him despite being well out of playoff contention. Speier notes the Red Sox have had longstanding interest in A’s backstop Sean Murphy — who’ll be a frequent trade target again this winter — and reports they’ve previously checked in on the Padres’ Austin Nola.

Astros Owner Nixed Willson Contreras Deal At Trade Deadline

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Cubs catcher Willson Contreras was one of the biggest trade candidates not to be moved at the summer trade deadline, but according to Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Astros came close to completing a deal for the All-Star. Astros starter Jose Urquidy would’ve gone to Chicago in a straight one-for-one swap, which was agreed upon pending ownership approval. The Astros never got the green light from ownership, the deal collapsed, and the players remained with their respective teams.

The Astros were clearly in the market for a catcher at the deadline, and while they missed out on acquiring Contreras, they did turn around and acquire Christian Vazquez from the Red Sox. Vazquez and Contreras profile as very different catchers though, with Vazquez a defense-first player and Contreras posing more of a threat with the bat. There’s little consequence of course, as the Astros won their second World Series title last night but the proposed trade and the reasons it fell through sheds some interesting light on the front office workings of the Astros, particularly given the future of GM James Click is far from certain.

Contreras seemed almost certain to be traded at the deadline. He was, after all, a pending free agent who was hitting .252/.365/.453 with 14 home runs on July 31 for a Cubs team that was 41-60 at the time. While there were some concerns around his defense, his bat made up for that, and he seemed an ideal guy to split time between catcher and designated hitter for a team looking for an offensive boost. Given the Astros already had Martin Maldonado entrenched as their regular catcher, that sort of role may have been exactly what the Astros were looking for from Contreras.

The cost for Houston would have been Urquidy, a mid-rotation starter who still had three years of club control remaining (after the 2022 season). Urquidy, signed out of Mexico as an international free agent in 2015, wound up tossing 164 1/3 innings of 3.94 ERA ball this year for Houston. Urquidy strikes out around 20% of batters, while walking them just 5% of the time. He is a bit prone to the home run ball, and gave up just over one per start in 2022. On the whole though, Urquidy was a dependable starter who had a big fan in manager Dusty Baker.

“Much as I like Willson Contreras, Urquidy was one of our best pitchers then,” Baker told Passan. “I needed a guy that wasn’t going to complain about not playing every day. And this is his [free agent] year. See, that’s tough. When you trade for a player in his [free agent] year. Everybody’s about numbers and stuff, and I can’t blame them, no doubt. But that’s not what we needed.”

It appears that owner Jim Crane thought the same, and did not give Click approval to go through with the trade. Given both Click and Baker are now off-contract, it’s an interesting insight into the inner workings of the Astros as they prepare to make some key decisions on the future of the franchise following their championship.

As it turned out, the trade didn’t go through, Contreras played out a strong platform year with the Cubs and the Astros picked up Vazquez for minor leaguers Wilyer Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez. The Cubs will surely tender Contreras a qualifying offer which he’ll likely reject, and instead hit the open market as the top free agent catcher available. Vazquez, too, will be a free agent, though may be not as sought after as Contreras. Urquidy will go through arbitration for the first time, and look to build off a solid season in the Astros’ rotation.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

The Opener: World Series, Pujols, Orioles

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Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

As the calendar flips to November, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. World Series Game 3 Rained Out, Improving Philadelphia’s Pitching Matchups

Yesterday’s opener mentioned the availability of Phillies aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler among the biggest obstacles facing Philadelphia headed into their three game homestand, and that obstacle has been partially removed due to the postponement of last night’s game: Aaron Nola is now in line to start Game 4 tomorrow on regular rest, while Houston is opting to maintain their rotation order, leaving ace Justin Verlander to start Game 5 with an extra day of rest, the same decision the Phillies have made for Wheeler in Game 6, with Noah Syndergaard likely set to take Nola’s place starting Game 5, potentially allowing him to pitch deeper into the game than he would have if he had pitched last night, as previously planned. Tonight’s game will see lefty Ranger Suarez toe the rubber for Philadelphia opposite Houston’s Lance McCullers Jr.

2. Albert Pujols Officially Retires

The retirement of Albert Pujols sees one of baseball’s all-time legends step away from the game, but it also poses a question that, as recently as this spring, would’ve been unexpected: How is St. Louis going to replace his production? Pujols slashed a phenomenal .270/.345/.550 in his final season, good for a 154 OPS+ that registers as his best mark since 2010, his age 30 season. Nolan Arenado declining to opt-out of his contract taking one major offseason question for the Cardinals off the table, but Pujols’s retirement combined with the impending retirement of longtime catcher Yadier Molina are going to leave St. Louis with plenty of work to do this offseason. After all, only Aaron Judge posted a better offensive season than Pujols in 2022 among pending free agents (min. 300 PA), and no catcher in baseball has the sort of illustrious reputation as a defensive catcher and game-caller that Molina has. Speculation has swirled early on in this this offseason connecting the Cardinals to the longtime catcher of their division rival Cubs, Willson Contreras. Contreras represents a particularly intriguing option for St. Louis, as he could help cover for the loss of both Pujols and Molina, giving the Cardinals a quality right-handed bat to slot into the DH slot on occasion while also shoring up a catching corps that includes Andrew Knizner and Ivan Herrera.

3. Orioles Have Infield Surplus Headed Into 2023

BaltimoreBaseball’s Rich Dubroff this morning discussed a coming logjam in the Orioles infield this offseason, suggesting that if no trades are made, Ramon Urias may be pushed into a utility role by the impending arrival of Jordan Westburg in addition to the presence of Gunnar Henderson and Jorge Mateo. Dubroff notes that this ignores players such as Terrin Vavra and Joey Ortiz, who could be squeezed out of playing time if no changes are made to the infield mix. The Orioles stepping into the infield market as a seller hoping to acquire win-now pieces would be an interesting development, with pitching being the clearest need for a team that lost John Means to Tommy John surgery early this year and had just one starter who made at least 20 starts with an ERA+ over 100. The Marlins stand out as a possible trade partner with their surplus of pitching, offensive woes, and tight budget, but there’s no doubt a variety of teams would be interested in adding a player like Urias should he hit the trade market.

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