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Willson Contreras

Latest On Market For Willson Contreras

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Free agency commences in a few days, and Willson Contreras will be the unquestioned top backstop available. The career-long Cub is certain to receive and reject a qualifying offer from Chicago while his representatives at Octagon set out in search of a strong multi-year pact.

While clubs can’t formally begin to discuss contract terms with other teams’ free agents until Thursday, they’ve no doubt identified players of interest with the offseason underway. A few teams outside of Chicago have already loosely emerged in the Contreras market. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted this morning the Tigers have interest in the three-time All-Star, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link) hears the Astros are contemplating a free agent pursuit.

It’s easy to see the link in both cases. Detroit is led by first-year president of baseball operations Scott Harris, who worked in the Cubs front office through the end of the 2019 season. Harris’ familiarity with Contreras doesn’t on its own give Detroit much of a leg up in free agency, but there’s a clear opportunity for them to pursue catching help. Detroit sees Tucker Barnhart hit free agency, and he looks unlikely to return after a rough year. Eric Haase has decent power and could be an immediate catching option after hitting .254/.305/.443 in 110 games, but he’s never rated highly defensively and may be a better fit for increased work in left field and/or at designated hitter.

Harris declined comment on Contreras specifically when speaking with reporters at the GM Meetings this evening (via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press). However, he broadly sounded open to the idea of adding catching help from outside the organization. Harris noted the presence of some internal prospect talent — presumably primarily in reference to former second-round pick Dillon Dingler and to 2021 11th-rounder Josh Crouch — but downplayed the likelihood of anyone from the system seizing that job for 2023. Neither Dingler nor Crouch needs to be added to the 40-man roster this winter, and neither has yet reached Triple-A. Whether Detroit should be willing to surrender a draft choice for a qualified free agent on the heels of a 66-win season is fair to ask, but it seems likely the Tigers will address catcher in some form over the coming months.

The Astros’ interest in Contreras dates back at least to this past summer. The front office arranged a deal that would’ve sent José Urquidy to the Cubs for Contreras at the deadline, but Houston owner Jim Crane vetoed it. Houston pivoted to land Christian Vázquez from the Red Sox instead, but he’s now the #2 backstop behind Contreras in free agency. A Vázquez reunion seems unlikely after he saw sporadic playing time behind Martín Maldonado down the stretch. Maldonado’s presence could be a roadblock to a Contreras pursuit as well, given the World Series champion’s longstanding affinity for the defensive specialist, but Contreras could be such a marked offensive upgrade the team is willing to consider scaling back Maldonado’s playing time to add an impact bat.

Certainly, interest in Contreras will extend far beyond two teams. High-ranking executives with the Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Red Sox have already gone on record about an openness to adding behind the plate. Katie Woo of the Athletic tweets the Cardinals consider catcher to be their #1 priority, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak open to both free agent and trade possibilities. The Cardinals have long prioritized elite defense behind the dish with Yadier Molina, perhaps making them an odd fit for a bat-first player like Contreras, but Woo relays that St. Louis isn’t solely looking for defensive stalwarts but is prioritizing all-around impact from the position.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, may have more trepidation about Contreras’ mixed reputation as a game-caller. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes that Boston is unlikely to make a serious run at the 30-year-old backstop as they place an emphasis on managing a pitching staff. Concerns about Contreras’ game-calling acumen were mentioned at the deadline as well, perhaps playing a role in the Cubs not finding an offer that inspired them to part ways with him despite being well out of playoff contention. Speier notes the Red Sox have had longstanding interest in A’s backstop Sean Murphy — who’ll be a frequent trade target again this winter — and reports they’ve previously checked in on the Padres’ Austin Nola.

Astros Owner Nixed Willson Contreras Deal At Trade Deadline

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Cubs catcher Willson Contreras was one of the biggest trade candidates not to be moved at the summer trade deadline, but according to Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Astros came close to completing a deal for the All-Star. Astros starter Jose Urquidy would’ve gone to Chicago in a straight one-for-one swap, which was agreed upon pending ownership approval. The Astros never got the green light from ownership, the deal collapsed, and the players remained with their respective teams.

The Astros were clearly in the market for a catcher at the deadline, and while they missed out on acquiring Contreras, they did turn around and acquire Christian Vazquez from the Red Sox. Vazquez and Contreras profile as very different catchers though, with Vazquez a defense-first player and Contreras posing more of a threat with the bat. There’s little consequence of course, as the Astros won their second World Series title last night but the proposed trade and the reasons it fell through sheds some interesting light on the front office workings of the Astros, particularly given the future of GM James Click is far from certain.

Contreras seemed almost certain to be traded at the deadline. He was, after all, a pending free agent who was hitting .252/.365/.453 with 14 home runs on July 31 for a Cubs team that was 41-60 at the time. While there were some concerns around his defense, his bat made up for that, and he seemed an ideal guy to split time between catcher and designated hitter for a team looking for an offensive boost. Given the Astros already had Martin Maldonado entrenched as their regular catcher, that sort of role may have been exactly what the Astros were looking for from Contreras.

The cost for Houston would have been Urquidy, a mid-rotation starter who still had three years of club control remaining (after the 2022 season). Urquidy, signed out of Mexico as an international free agent in 2015, wound up tossing 164 1/3 innings of 3.94 ERA ball this year for Houston. Urquidy strikes out around 20% of batters, while walking them just 5% of the time. He is a bit prone to the home run ball, and gave up just over one per start in 2022. On the whole though, Urquidy was a dependable starter who had a big fan in manager Dusty Baker.

“Much as I like Willson Contreras, Urquidy was one of our best pitchers then,” Baker told Passan. “I needed a guy that wasn’t going to complain about not playing every day. And this is his [free agent] year. See, that’s tough. When you trade for a player in his [free agent] year. Everybody’s about numbers and stuff, and I can’t blame them, no doubt. But that’s not what we needed.”

It appears that owner Jim Crane thought the same, and did not give Click approval to go through with the trade. Given both Click and Baker are now off-contract, it’s an interesting insight into the inner workings of the Astros as they prepare to make some key decisions on the future of the franchise following their championship.

As it turned out, the trade didn’t go through, Contreras played out a strong platform year with the Cubs and the Astros picked up Vazquez for minor leaguers Wilyer Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez. The Cubs will surely tender Contreras a qualifying offer which he’ll likely reject, and instead hit the open market as the top free agent catcher available. Vazquez, too, will be a free agent, though may be not as sought after as Contreras. Urquidy will go through arbitration for the first time, and look to build off a solid season in the Astros’ rotation.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

The Opener: World Series, Pujols, Orioles

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Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

As the calendar flips to November, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. World Series Game 3 Rained Out, Improving Philadelphia’s Pitching Matchups

Yesterday’s opener mentioned the availability of Phillies aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler among the biggest obstacles facing Philadelphia headed into their three game homestand, and that obstacle has been partially removed due to the postponement of last night’s game: Aaron Nola is now in line to start Game 4 tomorrow on regular rest, while Houston is opting to maintain their rotation order, leaving ace Justin Verlander to start Game 5 with an extra day of rest, the same decision the Phillies have made for Wheeler in Game 6, with Noah Syndergaard likely set to take Nola’s place starting Game 5, potentially allowing him to pitch deeper into the game than he would have if he had pitched last night, as previously planned. Tonight’s game will see lefty Ranger Suarez toe the rubber for Philadelphia opposite Houston’s Lance McCullers Jr.

2. Albert Pujols Officially Retires

The retirement of Albert Pujols sees one of baseball’s all-time legends step away from the game, but it also poses a question that, as recently as this spring, would’ve been unexpected: How is St. Louis going to replace his production? Pujols slashed a phenomenal .270/.345/.550 in his final season, good for a 154 OPS+ that registers as his best mark since 2010, his age 30 season. Nolan Arenado declining to opt-out of his contract taking one major offseason question for the Cardinals off the table, but Pujols’s retirement combined with the impending retirement of longtime catcher Yadier Molina are going to leave St. Louis with plenty of work to do this offseason. After all, only Aaron Judge posted a better offensive season than Pujols in 2022 among pending free agents (min. 300 PA), and no catcher in baseball has the sort of illustrious reputation as a defensive catcher and game-caller that Molina has. Speculation has swirled early on in this this offseason connecting the Cardinals to the longtime catcher of their division rival Cubs, Willson Contreras. Contreras represents a particularly intriguing option for St. Louis, as he could help cover for the loss of both Pujols and Molina, giving the Cardinals a quality right-handed bat to slot into the DH slot on occasion while also shoring up a catching corps that includes Andrew Knizner and Ivan Herrera.

3. Orioles Have Infield Surplus Headed Into 2023

BaltimoreBaseball’s Rich Dubroff this morning discussed a coming logjam in the Orioles infield this offseason, suggesting that if no trades are made, Ramon Urias may be pushed into a utility role by the impending arrival of Jordan Westburg in addition to the presence of Gunnar Henderson and Jorge Mateo. Dubroff notes that this ignores players such as Terrin Vavra and Joey Ortiz, who could be squeezed out of playing time if no changes are made to the infield mix. The Orioles stepping into the infield market as a seller hoping to acquire win-now pieces would be an interesting development, with pitching being the clearest need for a team that lost John Means to Tommy John surgery early this year and had just one starter who made at least 20 starts with an ERA+ over 100. The Marlins stand out as a possible trade partner with their surplus of pitching, offensive woes, and tight budget, but there’s no doubt a variety of teams would be interested in adding a player like Urias should he hit the trade market.

Hoyer: Cubs Will Make Qualifying Offer To Willson Contreras

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Confirming what most rightly expected to be a foregone conclusion, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said at today’s end-of-season press conference that the team will “definitely” make a qualifying offer to free-agent catcher Willson Contreras (Twitter link via Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). That much was widely assumed from the moment the team surprisingly opted against trading Contreras prior to the Aug. 2 deadline.

An exact amount on this year’s qualifying offer, which is set annually at the average of the game’s 125 highest-paid players, has not yet been determined. Last year’s qualifying offer clocked in at $18.4MM, and in 2020 it was set at $18.9MM.

Any player rejecting a qualifying offer is then subject to draft-pick compensation, meaning a team choosing to sign him will be required to surrender at least one pick in the following year’s draft (in addition to potentially forfeiting resources from its international bonus pool. Teams that receive revenue sharing would forfeit their third-highest selection to sign a “qualified” free agent. Non-revenue sharing, non-luxury tax paying teams lose their second-highest pick and $500K of international bonus pool space. The six teams that paid the luxury tax this year — Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Padres — would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks as well as $1MM of international pool space. The Cubs, meanwhile, would receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of next summer’s draft — typically in the No. 75 overall range.

The Cubs will still have the remainder of this month and an exclusive five-day window to negotiate with Contreras following the completion of the World Series (as all teams do with their pending free agents). That said, Contreras, who’ll be 31 next May, has been vocal about his desire to remain in Chicago for several years now. No extension has materialized.

In all likelihood, Contreras will hit the open market and sign with a new club — presumably one seeking more offense behind the plate. That’s not to disparage Contreras’ glove; he boasts plus arm strength and one of the fastest pop-times in MLB (1.93 seconds, per Statcast, good for 11th out of 83 catchers in 2022). Contreras, however, generally draws average to below-average marks for framing pitches, and Baseball Prospectus dinged him slightly in 2022 for his work blocking pitches in the dirt (although that was an anomaly and he’s typically graded better than average in that regard).

Broadly speaking, Contreras is far from a liability behind the plate, particularly when it comes to controlling the running game. He doesn’t grade as well when it comes to stealing strikes for his pitchers (and for ensuring that borderline strikes are accurately called), but he’s still a quality option behind the dish — particularly when considering that few of his positional peers can match his work with the bat. Contreras hit .243/.349/.466 with 22 home runs, 23 doubles and a pair of triples in 2022.

Contreras’ 132 wRC+, indicating that he was 32% better than the league-average hitter at the plate, ranked fifth among the 70 catchers who took at least 100 plate appearances in 2022, only narrowly trailing Adley Rutschman (133) and Tyler Stephenson (134) for third on the list behind Contreras’ own brother, William, and Toronto’s Danny Jansen. Given that the average catcher was 11% worse than the league-average hitter, Contreras was about about 43% better at the plate than the average backstop, by measure of wRC+. The only catchers to produce more round-trippers than Contreras were Cal Raleigh, Will Smith and Salvador Perez.

Precisely where Contreras lands in free agency, at this point, is anyone’s guess. He won’t know how things will play out until he gauges interest around the league, but there’s no shortage of teams that could look to upgrade behind the plate. Only seven teams — Braves, Jays, Phillies, A’s, Cubs, Dodgers, Mariners — received offense that was better than that of a league-average hitter from the catcher position in their lineup this season, so even with draft compensation attached, Contreras should command a strong multi-year deal.

Cubs Designate Michael Hermosillo For Assignment

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The Cubs made a series of roster moves prior to tonight’s game, with reporter Mark Gonzales among those who relayed them on Twitter. The club has reinstated catcher Willson Contreras from the injured list and Seiya Suzuki from the restricted list. Suzuki was previously on the paternity list but traveled to Japan and wasn’t able to return within the three-day maximum stint for paternity leave, which necessitated his transfer to the restricted list. In corresponding moves, infielder/outfielder Jared Young was optioned to the minors while outfielder Michael Hermosillo was designated for assignment.

Hermosillo, 27, was drafted by the Angels in 2013 and stayed with them through 2020. He reached free agency at that point and then signed a minor league deal with Chicago. Since joining the Cubs, he’s occasionally shown flashes of potential, mostly in the minors, but has also been frequently hurt. Last year, he hit .306/.446/.592 in 43 Triple-A games, producing a 178 wRC+ and getting called up to the majors in August. He then produced a line of .194/.237/.500 in 16 games before a left forearm strain ended his season.

He was non-tendered at the end of that year and re-signed for 2022. One month into the season, he landed on the IL due to a quad strain and ended up spending four months out of action. In 31 MLB games around that IL stint, he’s hit just .115/.250/.148. He fared better on his rehab assignment in the minors, hitting .324/.400/.559 in a small sample of 10 games, but wasn’t able to bring any of that up to the show. Since he’s out of options, the Cubs didn’t have the ability to simply send him down to the minors and have instead decided to cut him from the 40-man roster. With the trade deadline long gone, they will have no choice but to place him on outright or release waivers in the coming days. If he were to clear, he would have the ability to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency by virtue of having been previously outrighted in his career.

As for Contreras, he’s missed the past three weeks due to an ankle sprain but will return for the club’s final nine games, which could potentially be his last with the team. Since he is heading into free agency this winter and the Cubs were never in serious contention this year, he was widely expected to be flipped at the deadline. Surprisingly, that never happened and he will instead be given, and reject, a qualifying offer once the offseason begins. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently looked at the top catchers available in free agency this year, with Contreras at the top. Though the injury slowed him down, he’s still heading into the open market on the heels of an excellent season. He’s already hit 21 home runs and slashed .246/.351/.471, producing a 132 wRC+ and 3.1 fWAR that are both career bests. He’ll have just over a week to add to those numbers and show that the injury is behind him before the season draws to a close.

Cubs Make Series Of Roster Moves

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The Cubs have activated left-hander Wade Miley from the 60-day injured list, per reporter Mark Gonzales. Right-hander Luke Farrell was designated for assignment in a corresponding move. Additionally, Gonzales relays that catcher Willson Contreras has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 3. He’s been dealing with an ankle injury of late. Outfielder Michael Hermosillo has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list to take his place on the active roster, with right-hander Nicholas Padilla getting designated for assignment to open up a 40-man spot.

Farrell, 31, is in his sixth MLB season, having pitched for the Royals, Reds, Rangers and Twins, in addition to the Cubbies. However, he’s logged just 98 2/3 innings over those six campaigns, with a 4.83 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, 11.4% walk rate and 31.8% ground ball rate. He signed a minor league deal with the Cubs this year, getting selected in August. He’s thrown 11 MLB innings on the season with a 4.09 ERA. In 59 Triple-A innings, he has a 5.03 ERA for the year.

Miley, 35, will be looking for a strong finish to a frustrating season. Due to both elbow and shoulder issues, Miley has spent much of the season on the injured list and has made only four starts this year. That’s come on the heels of a tremendous 2021 season with the Reds that saw him throw 163 innings with a 3.37 ERA. The Reds could have kept him around via a $10MM club option but instead put him on waivers and saw the Cubs snatch him up. Chicago was surely hoping for Miley to act as a veteran stabilizer in a rotation experiencing much turnover as part of the club’s rebuild. Instead, he’s been absent for much of the year while trying to get healthy. He recently spoke to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times about his intention to continue pitching. The Cubs are well out of postseason contention, but Miley will have the remaining four weeks of the regular season to showcase his arm before the offseason begins.

Contreras, 30, hasn’t played in a week due to this lingering ankle issue. The Cubs didn’t place him on the IL until now, likely hoping that a few days’ rest would help it go away. However, that doesn’t seem to have happened, based on today’s move. Because it was backdated, Contreras could potentially return in a week if he heals up. Like Miley, Contreras is an impending free agent, which made him a clear trade candidate prior to the deadline. However, he ended up sticking with Chicago in one of the more shocking developments of early August. This ankle injury will be a snag on what has been the best season of his career. Contreras has hit 21 home runs and is slashing .246/.351/.471. The resulting 132 wRC+ and 3.1 fWAR are both career highs. Like Miley, he’ll be looking to get back on the field before the offseason kicks into gear. With Contreras out of action, Yan Gomes will likely get the bulk of the playing time behind the plate, with P.J. Higgins on hand as a backup.

Padilla, 25, was selected to the big league roster for the first time just two weeks ago. He made just a single MLB appearance, having spent most of his time this year in the minors. He’s thrown 47 innings on the farm this year across three different levels, registering a 2.11 ERA with a strong 30.5% strikeout rate but a high 13.7% walk rate. Given his youth, years of control and full slate of options, he could hold appeal for a team looking for some bullpen depth. He and Farrell will each be placed on waivers in the coming days, since the trade deadline has already passed.

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Position Players

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The qualifying offer has impacted the free agent market for the last 10 offseasons, but it wasn’t clear if there would be an eleventh as Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association engaged in labor talks last winter.  When the lockout was over and the new collective bargaining agreement was finally settled, one sticking point remained — the implementation of an international player draft.  If the union agreed to this draft, the league would have agreed to scrap the qualifying offer system altogether.

However, July’s deadline for a decision on an international draft came and went without any new agreement, and thus the status quo of the QO will remain for the 2022-23 free agent class.  As such, we can now look ahead and predict which players will or could receive qualifying offers from their teams at the end of the season.

A quick refresher on the QO rules.  The qualifying offer is a one-year contract with a salary figure determined by averaging the top 125 salaries of all MLB players.  Last year’s figure was $18.4MM, and it’s safe to estimate that this winter’s QO will be worth somewhere in the range of $18-19MM.  Any free agent is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer unless a) they have received one in past trips to free agency, or b) they haven’t spent the entire 2022 season with their current organization.  For instance, the Padres can’t issue Josh Bell a qualifying offer because Bell was only acquired at the trade deadline.

If a player accepts the qualifying offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal in the $18MM-$19MM range.  (The player can also negotiate a longer-term extension with his team after accepting that QO, as Jose Abreu did with the White Sox in November 2019.)  While some free agents have indeed taken the qualifying offer, the large majority reject the deal in search of a richer and lengthier contract.  If a player rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, their new team must give up at least one draft pick and possibly some international draft pool money, while their former team will get a compensatory draft pick in return.

With several prominent names in this year’s free agent market eligible for the QO, let’s look at some of the candidates, starting with position players.

Easy Calls: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Willson Contreras (Cubs), Aaron Judge (Yankees), Brandon Nimmo (Mets), Dansby Swanson (Braves), Trea Turner (Dodgers)

There isn’t much drama in any of these decisions, as these players are all obvious candidates to be issued qualifying offers that will be rejected.  Nimmo is perhaps the only name on this list that rates as a bit of a surprise, yet he has quietly posted strong numbers over his seven seasons in New York, including a quality 2022 campaign.  Most importantly, Nimmo has also stayed healthy, playing in 104 of the Mets’ 113 games — this is already the second-most games played for Nimmo in any season of what has been an injury-plagued career.

Arenado and Bogaerts aren’t guaranteed to be free agents, as either could pass on exercising opt-out clauses in their current deals.  However, Bogaerts is a virtual lock to opt out, and Arenado is having such a great season that he should be able to comfortably top the $144MM he is owed through from 2023-27.  Since Arenado has been vocal about how much he likes playing for the Cardinals, an extension is certainly possible before Arenado even hits the open market, with the Cards perhaps tacking another guaranteed year and more money onto the deal to prevent the third baseman from opting out.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Tim Anderson (White Sox)

The White Sox hold club options on Anderson’s services for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, with next year’s option being worth $12.5MM (with a $1MM buyout).  Though he could technically be a free agent, there is zero doubt the Sox will exercise Anderson’s 2023 option, so a qualifying offer is a moot point.

Borderline Cases: Mitch Haniger (Mariners), J.D. Martinez (Red Sox), Jurickson Profar (Padres), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Rizzo’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal with the Yankees includes an opt-out clause after this season, and it would seem like the first baseman (who just turned 33 earlier this week) will indeed test the open market again.  Rizzo’s first full season in the Bronx has seen him hit .224/.342/.504 with 27 home runs, with the fifth-best wRC+ (139) of his distinguished career.  Rizzo’s age, home/road splits, and first base-only status will limit his market to some extent, and draft-pick compensation via the qualifying offer will also make other teams wary.  But, Rizzo was still able to land a multi-year pact last winter coming off a lesser platform year, so he should be able to match or better that pact again.  Rizzo has quickly become a clubhouse and fan favorite in New York, so this could be another situation where a player is convinced to pass on an opt-out due to a contract extension.

Haniger has appeared in only 15 games this season, due to both a high ankle sprain that required a trip to the 60-day injured list, as well as a two-week stint on the COVID-related injury list in April.  He has been on a tear since returning to action last week, but if his numbers settle down, then it seems likely that Seattle won’t issue a qualifying offer.  However, if Haniger continues to mash over the remainder of the season and returns to his 2021 form, the Mariners face an interesting decision.

A late-season hot streak could do enough for Haniger’s market that he might reject a qualifying offer, as since Haniger turns 32 in December, this could be his best shot at a lucrative multi-year deal.  On the flip side, he could still choose to accept the QO, knowing that his checkered injury history could work against him in free agency — Haniger can bank the one-year QO payday and then hope for a full and healthy 2023 season as a better platform for that longer-term deal.  From the Mariners’ perspective, paying around $19MM for Haniger could be seen as a worthwhile investment, especially since the team doesn’t know what to expect from Kyle Lewis and Jarred Kelenic heading into 2023.

Martinez turns 35 on August 21 and is still posting above-average (120 wRC+) numbers, hitting .281/.346/.443 with nine home runs over 422 plate appearances.  That still represents a significant power dropoff from Martinez’s norms, and he has been a DH-only player this season.  Even with the looming threat of losing Bogaerts from the Red Sox lineup, Boston might still pass on issuing a QO to Martinez out a concern that he might accept, since chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seems to be looking for more flexibility with both the roster and the payroll.

Profar is another less-likely candidate to receive a qualifying offer, even if he is also playing well.  Between good offensive (119 wRC+, 12 homers, .254/.345/.416 over 467 PA) and defensive (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, +1.8 UZR/150 in left field) numbers, Profar has been a 2.8 fWAR player in 107 games with San Diego this season, a nice bounce-back from an underwhelming 2021.  With a player option attached to his 2023 services, Profar can either earn $7.5MM next season or take the $1MM buyout and test the open market.

At the very least, it would seem like Profar will indeed opt out and try to secure a longer-term contract, but it would seem like a reach if the Padres issued a qualifying offer.  Profar will only be 30 on Opening Day, so he could accept the QO to lock in that one-year payday, and then be on track to test the market again at age 31.  Considering the Padres might exceed the luxury tax threshold for the second straight year and will face a lot of free agent decisions this winter, they probably won’t want to risk Profar being bumped into the $19MM salary range.  Profar could be another extension candidate, given president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s belief in Profar’s ability dating back to their days in the Rangers organization.

AL Central Notes: Robert, Guardians, Contreras, Tigers, Hinch

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X-rays were negative on Luis Robert’s left wrist, as the White Sox outfielder has been deemed day-to-day with a sprain.  Robert suffered the injury on a stolen-base attempt in the bottom of the sixth inning in Friday’s game, and was replaced in center field for the top of the seventh.

Chicago’s next off-day doesn’t come until August 29, so there isn’t any room for Robert to get a break without leaving the White Sox undermanned on the roster.  As such, a 10-day injured list visit could be necessary if there’s any lingering soreness, and the Sox might prefer to lose Robert for a few games now in order to get him fully healthy for the rest of the postseason race.  Though he has already missed a couple of weeks (on the COVID-IL and on the regular IL due to blurred vision), Robert has still been a big contributor to the White Sox, hitting .301/.336/.454 with 12 homers in 354 plate appearances.

Other notes from around the AL Central…

  • The Guardians were among the teams who had interest in Willson Contreras at the trade deadline, according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers.  The Cubs didn’t end up moving Contreras anywhere, while the Guards had a quiet deadline overall — they ended up moving a catcher themselves, dealing Sandy Leon to the Twins in a minor trade.  Despite interest in both Contreras and the Athletics’ Sean Murphy, Cleveland stood pat at catching, leaving Austin Hedges and Luke Maile as the primary tandem behind the plate unless the Guardians look to call up top prospect Bo Naylor.
  • A.J. Hinch ended any speculation that he might seek a move to the Tigers’ front office, telling reporters (including The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen) earlier this week “I’m the manager.  I plan on being the manager.”  However, owner Chris Ilitch did state that Hinch would have some input on who might replace Al Avila as the club’s next general manager.  To this end, Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggests that former Diamondbacks and Padres GM Josh Byrnes could be a candidate for the Detroit job — Byrnes and Hinch worked together in Arizona’s front office, with Byrnes giving Hinch his first managerial job in the Diamondbacks’ dugout.  Byrnes has been working as the senior VP of baseball operations for the Dodgers since 2014.

Cubs Aren’t Trading Willson Contreras, Ian Happ

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After months of speculation, the Cubs will pass the trade deadline without moving two of their biggest trade chips.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that both catcher Willson Contreras and outfielder Ian Happ will both be staying put in Wrigleyville.

It hasn’t exactly been a quiet deadline for the Cubs, as Mychal Givens, David Robertson, Chris Martin, and Scott Effross have all been shipped out of town in the last few days.  But beyond this bullpen exodus, it seems that Chicago will be hanging onto its two most heavily-sought after position players, despite many rumors about other teams’ interest.

Clubs such as the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Padres had been linked to Happ, who is hitting .279/.360/.436 over 408 plate appearances and was just named to his first All-Star team.  While Happ’s production has been somewhat inconsistent over his six MLB seasons, he has been a solidly above-average hitter overall, and also emerged as capable defensive player in center field.

Since Happ is arbitration-controlled through the 2023 season, there may not have been quite the urgency on Chicago’s part to move the 27-year-old unless another team stepped forward with a knockout offer.  The Cubs continue to give mixed signals about their near-term and longer-term plans to contend, yet since their most recent moves have trended towards more retooling, it is probably safe to guess that Happ will continue to feature in trade rumors throughout the offseason and up until next year’s deadline if Chicago isn’t in contention.

The lack of movement on Contreras, however, is harder to figure.  The longtime Cubs catcher is a free agent after the season, and since the team aggressively moved several pending free agents (i.e. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez) at last year’s deadline, it seemed like a sure bet that Contreras would follow suit this season.  If anything, it may have been a little surprising that Contreras wasn’t moved last year as well, except the idea that the Cubs wanted to keep the catcher and sign him to a contract extension also didn’t come to fruition.

The Mets, Rays, Padres, and Astros were all linked to Contreras in recent rumors, though Houston instead obtained Christian Vazquez from the Red Sox as a catching upgrade.  Tampa Bay acquired Christian Bethancourt earlier in July, and now he’ll stand as the Rays’ only catcher trade of deadline season.

As for other suitors, it could be that the Mets, Padres, and the ever-popular “mystery teams” simply didn’t step forward with an offer that met the Cubs’ liking.  San Diego will continue with the respectable Austin Nola/Jorge Alfaro tandem at catcher, and the smaller-scale depth addition of Cam Gallagher from the Royals.  (Plus, it could simply be most of the Padres’ trade attention was focused on larger matters like the Juan Soto blockbuster).  New York ended making only relatively minor upgrades instead of any big swings at the deadline, and the team will now have to continue to hope that James McCann can get back on track.

Another factor to consider is the recent lack of an agreement between the league and the players’ union about the implementation of an international player draft.  Since that deal wasn’t reached, the old qualifying offer system will remain in place throughout the life of the current collective bargaining agreement, and thus the Cubs would get a compensatory draft pick back for Contreras if he rejected a QO and signed elsewhere.  That means that essentially, other teams had to offer something that the Cubs preferred to that extra pick.

Even with all of this in mind, it is still surprising that president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer couldn’t find any kind of acceptable trade match for Contreras, either in the days leading up to the deadline or even back during the offseason.  Considering the lack of extension talks, it would seem unlikely that the two sides will match up on a new deal before Contreras hits the open market, or after he becomes a free agent and has 29 other teams to bid on his services.  Contreras has been open about the stress and uncertainty he has faced with all of this nonstop trade buzz, but while that noise will quiet, some awkwardness may remain over what could be his last two months in a Cubs uniform.

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