Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Willson Contreras

Hoyer: Cubs Will Make Qualifying Offer To Willson Contreras

By | at

Confirming what most rightly expected to be a foregone conclusion, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said at today’s end-of-season press conference that the team will “definitely” make a qualifying offer to free-agent catcher Willson Contreras (Twitter link via Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). That much was widely assumed from the moment the team surprisingly opted against trading Contreras prior to the Aug. 2 deadline.

An exact amount on this year’s qualifying offer, which is set annually at the average of the game’s 125 highest-paid players, has not yet been determined. Last year’s qualifying offer clocked in at $18.4MM, and in 2020 it was set at $18.9MM.

Any player rejecting a qualifying offer is then subject to draft-pick compensation, meaning a team choosing to sign him will be required to surrender at least one pick in the following year’s draft (in addition to potentially forfeiting resources from its international bonus pool. Teams that receive revenue sharing would forfeit their third-highest selection to sign a “qualified” free agent. Non-revenue sharing, non-luxury tax paying teams lose their second-highest pick and $500K of international bonus pool space. The six teams that paid the luxury tax this year — Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Padres — would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks as well as $1MM of international pool space. The Cubs, meanwhile, would receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of next summer’s draft — typically in the No. 75 overall range.

The Cubs will still have the remainder of this month and an exclusive five-day window to negotiate with Contreras following the completion of the World Series (as all teams do with their pending free agents). That said, Contreras, who’ll be 31 next May, has been vocal about his desire to remain in Chicago for several years now. No extension has materialized.

In all likelihood, Contreras will hit the open market and sign with a new club — presumably one seeking more offense behind the plate. That’s not to disparage Contreras’ glove; he boasts plus arm strength and one of the fastest pop-times in MLB (1.93 seconds, per Statcast, good for 11th out of 83 catchers in 2022). Contreras, however, generally draws average to below-average marks for framing pitches, and Baseball Prospectus dinged him slightly in 2022 for his work blocking pitches in the dirt (although that was an anomaly and he’s typically graded better than average in that regard).

Broadly speaking, Contreras is far from a liability behind the plate, particularly when it comes to controlling the running game. He doesn’t grade as well when it comes to stealing strikes for his pitchers (and for ensuring that borderline strikes are accurately called), but he’s still a quality option behind the dish — particularly when considering that few of his positional peers can match his work with the bat. Contreras hit .243/.349/.466 with 22 home runs, 23 doubles and a pair of triples in 2022.

Contreras’ 132 wRC+, indicating that he was 32% better than the league-average hitter at the plate, ranked fifth among the 70 catchers who took at least 100 plate appearances in 2022, only narrowly trailing Adley Rutschman (133) and Tyler Stephenson (134) for third on the list behind Contreras’ own brother, William, and Toronto’s Danny Jansen. Given that the average catcher was 11% worse than the league-average hitter, Contreras was about about 43% better at the plate than the average backstop, by measure of wRC+. The only catchers to produce more round-trippers than Contreras were Cal Raleigh, Will Smith and Salvador Perez.

Precisely where Contreras lands in free agency, at this point, is anyone’s guess. He won’t know how things will play out until he gauges interest around the league, but there’s no shortage of teams that could look to upgrade behind the plate. Only seven teams — Braves, Jays, Phillies, A’s, Cubs, Dodgers, Mariners — received offense that was better than that of a league-average hitter from the catcher position in their lineup this season, so even with draft compensation attached, Contreras should command a strong multi-year deal.

Cubs Designate Michael Hermosillo For Assignment

By | at

The Cubs made a series of roster moves prior to tonight’s game, with reporter Mark Gonzales among those who relayed them on Twitter. The club has reinstated catcher Willson Contreras from the injured list and Seiya Suzuki from the restricted list. Suzuki was previously on the paternity list but traveled to Japan and wasn’t able to return within the three-day maximum stint for paternity leave, which necessitated his transfer to the restricted list. In corresponding moves, infielder/outfielder Jared Young was optioned to the minors while outfielder Michael Hermosillo was designated for assignment.

Hermosillo, 27, was drafted by the Angels in 2013 and stayed with them through 2020. He reached free agency at that point and then signed a minor league deal with Chicago. Since joining the Cubs, he’s occasionally shown flashes of potential, mostly in the minors, but has also been frequently hurt. Last year, he hit .306/.446/.592 in 43 Triple-A games, producing a 178 wRC+ and getting called up to the majors in August. He then produced a line of .194/.237/.500 in 16 games before a left forearm strain ended his season.

He was non-tendered at the end of that year and re-signed for 2022. One month into the season, he landed on the IL due to a quad strain and ended up spending four months out of action. In 31 MLB games around that IL stint, he’s hit just .115/.250/.148. He fared better on his rehab assignment in the minors, hitting .324/.400/.559 in a small sample of 10 games, but wasn’t able to bring any of that up to the show. Since he’s out of options, the Cubs didn’t have the ability to simply send him down to the minors and have instead decided to cut him from the 40-man roster. With the trade deadline long gone, they will have no choice but to place him on outright or release waivers in the coming days. If he were to clear, he would have the ability to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency by virtue of having been previously outrighted in his career.

As for Contreras, he’s missed the past three weeks due to an ankle sprain but will return for the club’s final nine games, which could potentially be his last with the team. Since he is heading into free agency this winter and the Cubs were never in serious contention this year, he was widely expected to be flipped at the deadline. Surprisingly, that never happened and he will instead be given, and reject, a qualifying offer once the offseason begins. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently looked at the top catchers available in free agency this year, with Contreras at the top. Though the injury slowed him down, he’s still heading into the open market on the heels of an excellent season. He’s already hit 21 home runs and slashed .246/.351/.471, producing a 132 wRC+ and 3.1 fWAR that are both career bests. He’ll have just over a week to add to those numbers and show that the injury is behind him before the season draws to a close.

Cubs Make Series Of Roster Moves

By | at

The Cubs have activated left-hander Wade Miley from the 60-day injured list, per reporter Mark Gonzales. Right-hander Luke Farrell was designated for assignment in a corresponding move. Additionally, Gonzales relays that catcher Willson Contreras has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 3. He’s been dealing with an ankle injury of late. Outfielder Michael Hermosillo has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list to take his place on the active roster, with right-hander Nicholas Padilla getting designated for assignment to open up a 40-man spot.

Farrell, 31, is in his sixth MLB season, having pitched for the Royals, Reds, Rangers and Twins, in addition to the Cubbies. However, he’s logged just 98 2/3 innings over those six campaigns, with a 4.83 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, 11.4% walk rate and 31.8% ground ball rate. He signed a minor league deal with the Cubs this year, getting selected in August. He’s thrown 11 MLB innings on the season with a 4.09 ERA. In 59 Triple-A innings, he has a 5.03 ERA for the year.

Miley, 35, will be looking for a strong finish to a frustrating season. Due to both elbow and shoulder issues, Miley has spent much of the season on the injured list and has made only four starts this year. That’s come on the heels of a tremendous 2021 season with the Reds that saw him throw 163 innings with a 3.37 ERA. The Reds could have kept him around via a $10MM club option but instead put him on waivers and saw the Cubs snatch him up. Chicago was surely hoping for Miley to act as a veteran stabilizer in a rotation experiencing much turnover as part of the club’s rebuild. Instead, he’s been absent for much of the year while trying to get healthy. He recently spoke to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times about his intention to continue pitching. The Cubs are well out of postseason contention, but Miley will have the remaining four weeks of the regular season to showcase his arm before the offseason begins.

Contreras, 30, hasn’t played in a week due to this lingering ankle issue. The Cubs didn’t place him on the IL until now, likely hoping that a few days’ rest would help it go away. However, that doesn’t seem to have happened, based on today’s move. Because it was backdated, Contreras could potentially return in a week if he heals up. Like Miley, Contreras is an impending free agent, which made him a clear trade candidate prior to the deadline. However, he ended up sticking with Chicago in one of the more shocking developments of early August. This ankle injury will be a snag on what has been the best season of his career. Contreras has hit 21 home runs and is slashing .246/.351/.471. The resulting 132 wRC+ and 3.1 fWAR are both career highs. Like Miley, he’ll be looking to get back on the field before the offseason kicks into gear. With Contreras out of action, Yan Gomes will likely get the bulk of the playing time behind the plate, with P.J. Higgins on hand as a backup.

Padilla, 25, was selected to the big league roster for the first time just two weeks ago. He made just a single MLB appearance, having spent most of his time this year in the minors. He’s thrown 47 innings on the farm this year across three different levels, registering a 2.11 ERA with a strong 30.5% strikeout rate but a high 13.7% walk rate. Given his youth, years of control and full slate of options, he could hold appeal for a team looking for some bullpen depth. He and Farrell will each be placed on waivers in the coming days, since the trade deadline has already passed.

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Position Players

By | at

The qualifying offer has impacted the free agent market for the last 10 offseasons, but it wasn’t clear if there would be an eleventh as Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association engaged in labor talks last winter.  When the lockout was over and the new collective bargaining agreement was finally settled, one sticking point remained — the implementation of an international player draft.  If the union agreed to this draft, the league would have agreed to scrap the qualifying offer system altogether.

However, July’s deadline for a decision on an international draft came and went without any new agreement, and thus the status quo of the QO will remain for the 2022-23 free agent class.  As such, we can now look ahead and predict which players will or could receive qualifying offers from their teams at the end of the season.

A quick refresher on the QO rules.  The qualifying offer is a one-year contract with a salary figure determined by averaging the top 125 salaries of all MLB players.  Last year’s figure was $18.4MM, and it’s safe to estimate that this winter’s QO will be worth somewhere in the range of $18-19MM.  Any free agent is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer unless a) they have received one in past trips to free agency, or b) they haven’t spent the entire 2022 season with their current organization.  For instance, the Padres can’t issue Josh Bell a qualifying offer because Bell was only acquired at the trade deadline.

If a player accepts the qualifying offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal in the $18MM-$19MM range.  (The player can also negotiate a longer-term extension with his team after accepting that QO, as Jose Abreu did with the White Sox in November 2019.)  While some free agents have indeed taken the qualifying offer, the large majority reject the deal in search of a richer and lengthier contract.  If a player rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, their new team must give up at least one draft pick and possibly some international draft pool money, while their former team will get a compensatory draft pick in return.

With several prominent names in this year’s free agent market eligible for the QO, let’s look at some of the candidates, starting with position players.

Easy Calls: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Willson Contreras (Cubs), Aaron Judge (Yankees), Brandon Nimmo (Mets), Dansby Swanson (Braves), Trea Turner (Dodgers)

There isn’t much drama in any of these decisions, as these players are all obvious candidates to be issued qualifying offers that will be rejected.  Nimmo is perhaps the only name on this list that rates as a bit of a surprise, yet he has quietly posted strong numbers over his seven seasons in New York, including a quality 2022 campaign.  Most importantly, Nimmo has also stayed healthy, playing in 104 of the Mets’ 113 games — this is already the second-most games played for Nimmo in any season of what has been an injury-plagued career.

Arenado and Bogaerts aren’t guaranteed to be free agents, as either could pass on exercising opt-out clauses in their current deals.  However, Bogaerts is a virtual lock to opt out, and Arenado is having such a great season that he should be able to comfortably top the $144MM he is owed through from 2023-27.  Since Arenado has been vocal about how much he likes playing for the Cardinals, an extension is certainly possible before Arenado even hits the open market, with the Cards perhaps tacking another guaranteed year and more money onto the deal to prevent the third baseman from opting out.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Tim Anderson (White Sox)

The White Sox hold club options on Anderson’s services for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, with next year’s option being worth $12.5MM (with a $1MM buyout).  Though he could technically be a free agent, there is zero doubt the Sox will exercise Anderson’s 2023 option, so a qualifying offer is a moot point.

Borderline Cases: Mitch Haniger (Mariners), J.D. Martinez (Red Sox), Jurickson Profar (Padres), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Rizzo’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal with the Yankees includes an opt-out clause after this season, and it would seem like the first baseman (who just turned 33 earlier this week) will indeed test the open market again.  Rizzo’s first full season in the Bronx has seen him hit .224/.342/.504 with 27 home runs, with the fifth-best wRC+ (139) of his distinguished career.  Rizzo’s age, home/road splits, and first base-only status will limit his market to some extent, and draft-pick compensation via the qualifying offer will also make other teams wary.  But, Rizzo was still able to land a multi-year pact last winter coming off a lesser platform year, so he should be able to match or better that pact again.  Rizzo has quickly become a clubhouse and fan favorite in New York, so this could be another situation where a player is convinced to pass on an opt-out due to a contract extension.

Haniger has appeared in only 15 games this season, due to both a high ankle sprain that required a trip to the 60-day injured list, as well as a two-week stint on the COVID-related injury list in April.  He has been on a tear since returning to action last week, but if his numbers settle down, then it seems likely that Seattle won’t issue a qualifying offer.  However, if Haniger continues to mash over the remainder of the season and returns to his 2021 form, the Mariners face an interesting decision.

A late-season hot streak could do enough for Haniger’s market that he might reject a qualifying offer, as since Haniger turns 32 in December, this could be his best shot at a lucrative multi-year deal.  On the flip side, he could still choose to accept the QO, knowing that his checkered injury history could work against him in free agency — Haniger can bank the one-year QO payday and then hope for a full and healthy 2023 season as a better platform for that longer-term deal.  From the Mariners’ perspective, paying around $19MM for Haniger could be seen as a worthwhile investment, especially since the team doesn’t know what to expect from Kyle Lewis and Jarred Kelenic heading into 2023.

Martinez turns 35 on August 21 and is still posting above-average (120 wRC+) numbers, hitting .281/.346/.443 with nine home runs over 422 plate appearances.  That still represents a significant power dropoff from Martinez’s norms, and he has been a DH-only player this season.  Even with the looming threat of losing Bogaerts from the Red Sox lineup, Boston might still pass on issuing a QO to Martinez out a concern that he might accept, since chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seems to be looking for more flexibility with both the roster and the payroll.

Profar is another less-likely candidate to receive a qualifying offer, even if he is also playing well.  Between good offensive (119 wRC+, 12 homers, .254/.345/.416 over 467 PA) and defensive (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, +1.8 UZR/150 in left field) numbers, Profar has been a 2.8 fWAR player in 107 games with San Diego this season, a nice bounce-back from an underwhelming 2021.  With a player option attached to his 2023 services, Profar can either earn $7.5MM next season or take the $1MM buyout and test the open market.

At the very least, it would seem like Profar will indeed opt out and try to secure a longer-term contract, but it would seem like a reach if the Padres issued a qualifying offer.  Profar will only be 30 on Opening Day, so he could accept the QO to lock in that one-year payday, and then be on track to test the market again at age 31.  Considering the Padres might exceed the luxury tax threshold for the second straight year and will face a lot of free agent decisions this winter, they probably won’t want to risk Profar being bumped into the $19MM salary range.  Profar could be another extension candidate, given president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s belief in Profar’s ability dating back to their days in the Rangers organization.

AL Central Notes: Robert, Guardians, Contreras, Tigers, Hinch

By | at

X-rays were negative on Luis Robert’s left wrist, as the White Sox outfielder has been deemed day-to-day with a sprain.  Robert suffered the injury on a stolen-base attempt in the bottom of the sixth inning in Friday’s game, and was replaced in center field for the top of the seventh.

Chicago’s next off-day doesn’t come until August 29, so there isn’t any room for Robert to get a break without leaving the White Sox undermanned on the roster.  As such, a 10-day injured list visit could be necessary if there’s any lingering soreness, and the Sox might prefer to lose Robert for a few games now in order to get him fully healthy for the rest of the postseason race.  Though he has already missed a couple of weeks (on the COVID-IL and on the regular IL due to blurred vision), Robert has still been a big contributor to the White Sox, hitting .301/.336/.454 with 12 homers in 354 plate appearances.

Other notes from around the AL Central…

  • The Guardians were among the teams who had interest in Willson Contreras at the trade deadline, according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers.  The Cubs didn’t end up moving Contreras anywhere, while the Guards had a quiet deadline overall — they ended up moving a catcher themselves, dealing Sandy Leon to the Twins in a minor trade.  Despite interest in both Contreras and the Athletics’ Sean Murphy, Cleveland stood pat at catching, leaving Austin Hedges and Luke Maile as the primary tandem behind the plate unless the Guardians look to call up top prospect Bo Naylor.
  • A.J. Hinch ended any speculation that he might seek a move to the Tigers’ front office, telling reporters (including The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen) earlier this week “I’m the manager.  I plan on being the manager.”  However, owner Chris Ilitch did state that Hinch would have some input on who might replace Al Avila as the club’s next general manager.  To this end, Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggests that former Diamondbacks and Padres GM Josh Byrnes could be a candidate for the Detroit job — Byrnes and Hinch worked together in Arizona’s front office, with Byrnes giving Hinch his first managerial job in the Diamondbacks’ dugout.  Byrnes has been working as the senior VP of baseball operations for the Dodgers since 2014.

Cubs Aren’t Trading Willson Contreras, Ian Happ

By | at

After months of speculation, the Cubs will pass the trade deadline without moving two of their biggest trade chips.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that both catcher Willson Contreras and outfielder Ian Happ will both be staying put in Wrigleyville.

It hasn’t exactly been a quiet deadline for the Cubs, as Mychal Givens, David Robertson, Chris Martin, and Scott Effross have all been shipped out of town in the last few days.  But beyond this bullpen exodus, it seems that Chicago will be hanging onto its two most heavily-sought after position players, despite many rumors about other teams’ interest.

Clubs such as the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Padres had been linked to Happ, who is hitting .279/.360/.436 over 408 plate appearances and was just named to his first All-Star team.  While Happ’s production has been somewhat inconsistent over his six MLB seasons, he has been a solidly above-average hitter overall, and also emerged as capable defensive player in center field.

Since Happ is arbitration-controlled through the 2023 season, there may not have been quite the urgency on Chicago’s part to move the 27-year-old unless another team stepped forward with a knockout offer.  The Cubs continue to give mixed signals about their near-term and longer-term plans to contend, yet since their most recent moves have trended towards more retooling, it is probably safe to guess that Happ will continue to feature in trade rumors throughout the offseason and up until next year’s deadline if Chicago isn’t in contention.

The lack of movement on Contreras, however, is harder to figure.  The longtime Cubs catcher is a free agent after the season, and since the team aggressively moved several pending free agents (i.e. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez) at last year’s deadline, it seemed like a sure bet that Contreras would follow suit this season.  If anything, it may have been a little surprising that Contreras wasn’t moved last year as well, except the idea that the Cubs wanted to keep the catcher and sign him to a contract extension also didn’t come to fruition.

The Mets, Rays, Padres, and Astros were all linked to Contreras in recent rumors, though Houston instead obtained Christian Vazquez from the Red Sox as a catching upgrade.  Tampa Bay acquired Christian Bethancourt earlier in July, and now he’ll stand as the Rays’ only catcher trade of deadline season.

As for other suitors, it could be that the Mets, Padres, and the ever-popular “mystery teams” simply didn’t step forward with an offer that met the Cubs’ liking.  San Diego will continue with the respectable Austin Nola/Jorge Alfaro tandem at catcher, and the smaller-scale depth addition of Cam Gallagher from the Royals.  (Plus, it could simply be most of the Padres’ trade attention was focused on larger matters like the Juan Soto blockbuster).  New York ended making only relatively minor upgrades instead of any big swings at the deadline, and the team will now have to continue to hope that James McCann can get back on track.

Another factor to consider is the recent lack of an agreement between the league and the players’ union about the implementation of an international player draft.  Since that deal wasn’t reached, the old qualifying offer system will remain in place throughout the life of the current collective bargaining agreement, and thus the Cubs would get a compensatory draft pick back for Contreras if he rejected a QO and signed elsewhere.  That means that essentially, other teams had to offer something that the Cubs preferred to that extra pick.

Even with all of this in mind, it is still surprising that president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer couldn’t find any kind of acceptable trade match for Contreras, either in the days leading up to the deadline or even back during the offseason.  Considering the lack of extension talks, it would seem unlikely that the two sides will match up on a new deal before Contreras hits the open market, or after he becomes a free agent and has 29 other teams to bid on his services.  Contreras has been open about the stress and uncertainty he has faced with all of this nonstop trade buzz, but while that noise will quiet, some awkwardness may remain over what could be his last two months in a Cubs uniform.

Willson Contreras Rumors: Deadline Day

By | at

“I’m ready for this to be over with,” Willson Contreras told reporters in San Francisco on Sunday regarding the trade rumors that have swirled around him for months.  Contreras has very likely played his last game for the Cubs, who are widely expected to trade their longtime catcher before today’s 5pm deadline.  Contreras, 30, broke into the Majors during the Cubs’ 2016 championship season and made three All-Star teams, including this year.  The club chose not to extend him along the way, so now Contreras is on the eve of free agency and will be joining a pennant race before long.  Here’s the latest:

LATEST RUMORS:

EARLIER:

Astros Exploring Catching Market, Have Discussed Willson Contreras With Cubs

By | at

The Astros have been linked to Josh Bell a few times in recent days, but the Nationals first baseman isn’t the only rental bat on Houston’s radar. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that the Astros have been in contact with the Cubs about catcher Willson Contreras.

More broadly, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this morning that Houston is looking into ways to add to the catching corps before next Tuesday’s trade deadline. The Astros have been without veteran backup Jason Castro for nearly a month, and manager Dusty Baker indicated over the weekend that Castro wasn’t progressing as hoped (via team field reporter Julia Morales). That has left the club relying on rookie Korey Lee to back up Martín Maldonado. Lee is one of the better prospects in the Houston farm system, but he’s struggled this year in his first extended crack at Triple-A.

Of course, there are myriad ways in which the Houston front office could address the catching group. If they’re committed to keeping Maldonado as the primary backstop, then a veteran depth option in the Tucker Barnhart mold could suffice. The Tigers would certainly be open to moving the impending free agent for a minimal prospect return.

Contreras, on the other hand, would require sending significant talent back to Chicago. He’s a virtual lock to change uniforms within the next week. Because MLB and the Players Association didn’t agree to an international draft, the qualifying offer system for free agents is set to remain in place. The Cubs could theoretically hold Contreras and recoup a draft pick once he signs elsewhere next winter, but they’re far likelier to land a more valuable return via trade.

Maldonado, who has started 70 of Houston’s 97 games behind the plate, is beloved in the clubhouse for his management of the pitching staff. He’s never been a good hitter, though, and his .237 on-base percentage is the fifth-lowest mark among 260 hitters with 200+ plate appearances on the season. Maldonado has also rated as a below-average pitch framer and overall defender in the eyes of public metrics this season. The Astros clearly believe he brings immense intangible value, but there’s room on paper for an upgrade.

Of course, if the Astros want to keep Maldonado behind the plate, they could make room for Contreras’ bat at other positions. The Cubs backstop has long been regarded as a bat-first catcher. He’s made strides from a pitch framing perspective in recent seasons, improving from one of the league’s worst-rated framers to roughly average in that regard. Passan notes, however, that some contenders have expressed concern about Contreras’ ability to manage a new pitching staff quickly — not an uncommon refrain for catchers who are dealt midseason. Contreras is talented enough a hitter than an acquiring team could plug him in more frequently at first base and/or designated hitter than at catcher for the season’s final few months while still upgrading their offense.

Houston has Yordan Álvarez at DH, although he’s seen sporadic time in left field as well. The clearer path for an offensive upgrade is at first base, where Yuli Gurriel has a disappointing .234/.287/.384 season line. Bell would be a more obvious direct replacement for Gurriel, but it’s not out of the question teams could eye Contreras — owner of a career-best .258/.373/.470 slash — as an option to rotate between DH, first base and catcher rather than as a full-time backstop.

The Astros aren’t the only team in contact with the Cubs about Contreras, of course. The Mets have been tied to him for a few weeks, and both Passan and Pat Ragazzo of Sports Illustrated suggest today he remains a viable target for New York. Ragazzo reports that New York and the Cubs have discussed trade frameworks involving Contreras and Cubs closer David Robertson in a package deal that would send multiple prospects back to Chicago. Ragazzo adds that Francisco Álvarez and Brett Baty — the top two prospects in the system in Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 — would be off the table. The only other Mets farmhand to make BA’s top 100 is outfielder Alex Ramirez, but players like Matt Allan, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos have been in the recent Top 100 mix for various prospect outlets.

Cubs’ Ian Happ Drawing Significant Trade Interest

By | at

Willson Contreras generates the most public speculation among Cubs trade candidates with the deadline a week away, but teammate outfielder Ian Happ has emerged as one of the more in-demand names on the summer market, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. That’s particularly notable when paired with Happ’s recent acknowledgment that the team has not approached him about a contract extension (link via Patrick Mooney of The Athletic).

Happ is “likely” to be traded within the next week, Passan writes, adding that some interested parties have approached the Cubs about package deals that would see one of Contreras or Happ traded alongside a reliever such as David Robertson or Mychal Givens. (Passan doesn’t specifically mention righty Chris Martin, though as a pending free agent, he’s surely available as well.) More interestingly, Dennis Lin of The Athletic wrote over the weekend that the Padres have expressed interest in adding both Contreras and Happ in the same trade, though the ask on that would surely be immense.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored Happ’s career-best production earlier this month, observing that notable gains in Happ’s plate discipline profile have generated the strongest and most sustainable results of his six big league seasons. Happ has always drawn walks at a high clip, but his penchant for strikeouts has often suppressed his overall value at the plate.

Most notably, as Anthony wrote at the time, Happ has wildly improved upon his contact rates in 2022. His 62.6% contact rate on pitches off the plate is up ten full percentage points from 2021, and his 83.7% contact rate in pitches in the zone is up from 79.9% a year ago. Happ’s 75.9% overall contact rate is less than one percentage point below the league average. That may not sound all that impressive, but pair roughly average contact skills with Happ’s high-end walk rate (10.9%), above-average power and above-average speed, and Happ looks like an increasingly well-rounded player. The switch-hitting Happ has also posted substantially better numbers as a right-handed hitter this season than in years past, and while part of that is due to a sky-high .463 BABIP as a righty, he’s also cut his strikeout rate against left-handers by about six percentage points this year (down to 25.1%).

Defensively, opinions on Happ are going to be a bit more mixed. After bouncing around the diamond more earlier in his career, he’s settled in as Chicago’s left fielder this season, which is his best position. He’s logged 706 of his 718 defensive frames in left this season, with the other 12 coming via a few brief cameos in center. He’s been a scratch defender in 2022, per Statcast’s Outs Above Average, although both Defensive Runs Saved (+5) and Ultimate Zone Rating (+3.9) feel he’s been above-average.

It’s easy enough to see why Happ’s overall skill set would make him an appealing trade chip. He’s at least a solid defender in left — and a balanced switch-hitter with aa .282/.367/.445 batting line in 387 trips to the plate so far this season. His home run power hasn’t been up to previous levels — his nine long balls put him shy of pace to match last year’s career-high 25 — but Happ has already connected on a career-best 24 doubles and tacked on a couple of triples for good measure. Of even greater appeal, however, is the fact that Happ is controlled for an additional season beyond the current campaign.

Assuming Happ is indeed traded, whichever club acquires him can pencil him into left field both for the current postseason push and the entirety of the 2023 season. He’s earning $6.9MM this season and shouldn’t command much more than $10MM in 2023, which makes him affordable for the majority of clubs around the league. Happ also won’t even turn 28 until next month, meaning the former No. 9 overall draft pick is squarely in the typical prime of a hitter’s career.

Whether the Cubs will ultimately pursue the package offers reported by Passan or instead attempt to engineer standalone trades for all of their chips, of course, is entirely dependent on the strength of offers they receive. However, virtually every contender is looking to deepen its bullpen, so it’s only natural to think that a team with interest in Happ would take a two-birds-with-one-stone approach. Each of Robertson, Givens and Martin will be a free agent at season’s end, and each is in the midst of a fine season.

Robertson has drawn the most attention among Cubs relievers in early speculation — as is often the case for those in the vaunted closer role — thanks in large part to a pristine 1.83 ERA and 14 saves on the season. He’s earning a $3.5MM base salary, though he’s on pace to reach all of his incentives (including a $100K trade bonus), which would bring his total salary up to $5.1MM. Still, for a pitcher with his track record and a 31.4% strikeout rate, that’s a reasonable price to pay — even if this year’s 11.9% walk rate is a bit concerning.

The 32-year-old Givens is also earning $3.5MM, but his contract contains $1.25MM of incentives and a $1.5MM buyout on next year’s mutual option, so his ultimate price tag will fall more in the $5.5MM to $6MM range. He’s pitched a 2.79 ERA with a 29.1% strikeout rate and a similarly elevated 11.5% walk rate. Like Robertson, Givens has a long track record as a solid late-inning reliever with roots in the AL East (Orioles).

As for the 36-year-old Martin, his ERA has swelled to 4.50 after yielding five runs through his past 3 2/3 innings, but even looking past that recent slump, he’s touting a brilliant 37-to-4 K/BB ratio in 30 innings so far in 2022. He’s on a $2.5MM salary and probably won’t get the 60 appearances he needs to max out his incentives, but he’s likely to unlock either $400K or $500K of the available bonuses on his incentive-laden contract before becoming a free agent at season’s end.

Mets Rumors: Bell, Mancini, Szapucki

By | at

There’s not much traction at present between the Nationals and Mets on a potential Josh Bell swap, reports SNY’s Andy Martino. Bell is one of several designated hitter candidates in whom the Mets are known to have interest, but it seems as though talks between the two parties haven’t proved fruitful. Pat Ragazzo and Michael Marino of Sports Illustrated/Fan Nation report that the Mets put forth an offer for Bell and a Nationals reliever that included an upper-level minor league starter and outfielder.

The Mets moved last week to begin augmenting their DH rotation, flipping reliever Colin Holderman to the Pirates in a trade that brought Daniel Vogelbach back to Queens. Vogelbach, however, figures to be a pure platoon option, whereas the switch-hitting Bell would be an everyday option who’d push Vogelbach into a bench role. The Mets have continued to look for potential DH upgrades even in the wake of the Voeglbach deal, Martino writes, with Trey Mancini, C.J. Cron and Willson Contreras among those who might still be under consideration.

They won’t have the opportunity to evaluate Mancini today, as he’ll take a seat on the heels of an 0-for-22 swoon at the plate. That offensive freefall has dropped Mancini’s batting line from a robust .285/.359/.429 (124 wRC+) to .268/.345/.404 (113 wRC+). Mancini has still been better than a league-average hitter on the whole, but it’s a poor time for him to struggle through his toughest patch of the season, particularly from a team vantage point.

The Orioles won 10 games in a row to thrust themselves onto the fringes of the American Wild Card chase prior to the deadline, but they’ve since gone 2-4 against the Rays and Yankees in a pair of road series. Mancini’s slump obviously isn’t the sole cause of the team’s momentum slowing down, but it was a contributing factor as Baltimore dropped a few close games. It’s also suboptimal for a club that could still move Mancini prior to next Tuesday’s trade deadline; an 0-for-22 doesn’t wipe out all of Mancini’s trade value, of course, but it’s tougher for a rival front office to give up a prospect of note for a hitter in such a pronounced slump.

Cron has a robust .292/.347/.546 line on the year, but it’s questionable whether the Rockies would consider moving him when he’s cheaply signed for 2023, particularly since Colorado GM Bill Schmidt has already pushed back against a major sell-off. Contreras seems a virtual lock to move in the next eight days, but the Mets reluctance to deal from the top of the farm system would make landing perhaps the top rental bat available a challenge.

Bell, Mancini and Vogelbach were just a handful of the Mets’ reported targets as they look to bolster the lineup, and Martino reported last week that GM Billy Eppler and his team were exploring trade scenarios involving both Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis. Clearly, there’s some turnover to be expected. Martino even floats the possibility of the Mets dealing Vogelbach if they land an impact bat, although there’s no indication that’s especially likely.

The exact return the Mets might surrender in order to bolster the lineup is, of course, wholly dependent on the caliber of player on which they settle — but Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (Twitter link) that minor league lefty Thomas Szapucki has drawn some interest from other teams as New York has poked around the trade market. The 26-year-old lefty has yielded a staggering 15 runs in just five Major League innings across the past two seasons, but Szapucki has had a nice year in Triple-A Syracuse, pitching to a 3.48 ERA with a huge 31.9% strikeout rate against an 11% walk rate in 62 innings.

Those 62 frames have been scattered over 16 starts, which comes out to an average of under four innings per outing. That’s a bit of a strange phenomenon, even in today’s game, but the Mets have been cautious with Szapucki’s workload after he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018 and season-ending surgery on his ulnar nerve last summer. He began the year throwing just two to three innings per start but has continued to build up his pitch count over the course of the year, peaking with a season-high 93 pitches back on July 6.

The Mets and other clubs may want to be cautious with his overall innings total and his pitch count on a game-to-game basis, but he’s a reasonably youthful lefty who can be controlled at least six years beyond the current campaign. Even if there’s some injury risk, he has three average or better pitches and could certainly operate as a multi-inning reliever down the road if his arm doesn’t prove capable of a starter’s workload. Speculatively, Szapucki would fit the billing of the “upper-level starting pitcher” the Mets are said to have offered to Washington in Bell talks, though there’s no specific indication that Szapucki was part of that offer.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top