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Giants Rumors

Giants Place Alex Wood On 15-Day Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | September 3, 2022 at 1:10pm CDT

The Giants placed left-hander Alex Wood on the 15-day injured list due to a shoulder impingement, with the placement retroactive to September 1.  Outfielder Bryce Johnson was called up from Triple-A to take Wood’s spot on the active roster.

Given the date, it is possible Wood has thrown his last pitch of the 2022 season.  Manager Gabe Kapler told reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area) that the team will re-evaluate Wood in a week’s time to see if a return is feasible.  Since the Giants are all but officially out of the wild card race, the club might decide to shut Wood down for the remainder of the campaign.  San Francisco will go with a bullpen game to cover Wood’s next scheduled start, and possibly for the rest of the season if Wood indeed doesn’t return.

As per most of the advanced metrics, Wood’s 2021 and 2022 numbers have been pretty much identical, with the southpaw posting a 3.60 SIERA last season and a 3.45 SIERA this year.  However, a few less bounces have gone Wood’s way, as while his real-world ERA was a solid 3.83 in 2021, that number ballooned to 5.10 in 2022.  Wood got great results from his sinker in 2021 and his slider was also a plus pitch, but both offerings have been below average this year in Statcast’s view.

Kapler noted that Wood has been trying to pitch through his shoulder problem, which could explain this downturn in production and, in particular, Wood’s recent shaky outings.  Over his last three starts and 12 1/3 innings, Wood has been tagged for a 7.91 ERA.

Shoulder and back injuries have hampered Wood in the past, most notably during the 2019-20 seasons when he pitched only 48 1/3 total big league innings.  Wood did rebound during the 2020 playoffs to help the Dodgers win the World Series, and he pitched well after signing a one-year, $3MM free agent deal with San Francisco in the 2020-21 offseason.  That resulted in a new two-year, $25MM contract to rejoin the Giants last winter.

Carlos Rodon is widely expected to opt out of his contract and re-enter free agency, leaving the Giants with Wood, Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Jakob Junis, and Anthony DeSclafani under contract or under arbitration control for 2023.  DeSclafani is a question mark after missing most of the season due to ankle surgery, but the Giants still have a decent core rotation in place, even if some additions will likely need to be made.

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San Francisco Giants Transactions Alex Wood Bryce Johnson

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Zaidi: Giants Have Discussed Extension With Joc Pederson

By Steve Adams | September 2, 2022 at 11:05pm CDT

Far more has gone wrong than right for the 2022 Giants, but the team’s offseason signing of outfielder Joc Pederson to a one-year, $6MM contract has proven to be a shrewd investment. Pederson has hit well in his first season as a Giant, and he’s apparently made a good impression on the organization in all facets, as president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said in an appearance on KNBR’s Tolbert & Copes show yesterday that he’s had discussions with Pederson and his agent about re-signing him (link to full 23-minute interview).

“We’d love to have him back next year,” Zaidi said when asked what the future held for Pederson. “We’ve talked some to his representative. I’ve talked to Joc about it himself. He’s from here. He’s played well. He was an All-Star for us.”

Pederson, 30, has indeed enjoyed a strong year in San Francisco. The Palo Alto native has appeared in 107 games, tallied 348 plate appearances and slashed .263/.339/.519 with 20 home runs, 17 doubles and three stolen bases (in five attempts). He’s walked at an 8.6% clip, and this year’s 21.6% strikeout rate is his lowest mark since 2019 (and tied for the third-lowest of his career). The Giants have shielded him from lefties almost entirely — he has just 46 plate appearances against same-handed opponents — but that’s nothing new for Pederson, who carries just a .210/.285/.334 batting line against southpaws (compared to .240/.342/.494 against righties).

It’s been the best offensive showing for Pederson since his career-high 36 home runs back in 2019, but defensive metrics on the slugger are down across the board. Each of Defensive Runs Saved (-7), Ultimate Zone Rating (-6.6) and Outs Above Average (-6) are critical of Pederson’s glovework. He’s also spent 10 games at designated hitter for the Giants, though, and Pederson’s pop against right-handed pitching is plenty sufficient to fill that role if the Giants are concerned about his defensive work moving forward.

If Pederson does reach the market, he’ll be one of the more appealing options on a fairly thin market for corner outfield bats. Aaron Judge, of course, is the top free agent on the market, and Andrew Benintendi will be in a nice position heading into his age-28 season on the heels of a strong all-around showing. Beyond that pairing, Pederson will slot into the next tier alongside names like Mitch Haniger, Joey Gallo and Jurickson Profar (who seems likely to opt out of the final year of his Padres contract).

As with any potential free agent, Pederson’s return (or his departure) is largely dependent on the context of the roster around him. In-house outfield options for the Giants next year include Austin Slater, LaMonte Wade Jr., Luis Gonzalez and Mike Yastrzemski — to say nothing of prospects Heliot Ramos, Luis Matos and Vaun Brown. Ramos and Matos, however, have had down seasons in the minors, just as Yastrzemski has in the big leagues. Struggles notwithstanding, however, Zaidi implied that the team plans to tender a contract to Yastrzemski in arbitration this winter and retain him for the 2023 campaign.

“It’s just been a down season for him,” Zaidi said of Yastrzemski. “He’s been frustrated. Last year, the batting average wasn’t there but he still hit 25 homers, so you still had offensive production in a certain way. He’s still a guy who brings a ton of intangibles to the table. He’s a great defensive player. We view him as part of this team going forward, and I know he’s going to be as motivated as anybody to come back strong next year.”

Yastrzemski, who just turned 32 a couple weeks ago, will be due a raise on this year’s $3.7MM salary but has stumbled to a .203/.303/.361 batting line in 439 plate appearances. He’s still drawing walks at a strong 11.6% clip, however, and Yastrzemski’s strikeout rate, exit velocity, hard-hit rate and broader batted-ball profile are all quite similar to his prior, more productive seasons.

The Giants can control Yastrzemski for three more years beyond the current campaign, so there’s good reason to place a reasonably low-cost bet on a rebound if the team doesn’t believe his skill set has begun to decline. That said, both Yastrzemski and Pederson are left-handed hitting outfielders who could require platoon partners — Yastrzesmki has struggled severely against lefties in each of the past two seasons — so the extent to which the Giants again want to lean on a platoon, matchup-based outfield set will drive the decisions on both players. For the time being, it sounds as though the Giants are open to again leaning heavily on both lefties in the outfield again next season.

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San Francisco Giants Joc Pederson Mike Yastrzemski

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The Giants’ Latest Pitching Reclamation

By Steve Adams | September 2, 2022 at 7:25pm CDT

Heading into the 2021-22 offseason, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and general manager Scott Harris had the unenviable task of filling not just one or two, but four rotation spots. Each of Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Johnny Cueto were free agents. Of the team’s 2021 starters, only Logan Webb was under club control.

Granted, much of that was the front office’s own doing. A generally risk-averse unit, at least insofar as signing free agents to lucrative multi-year commitments, the Giants inked each of Gausman, Wood and DeSclafani to one-year contracts prior to the 2021 season. The continued with a generally risk-averse approach this past offseason, replenishing their rotation for a combined $125MM paid out to Carlos Rodon (two  years, $44MM), DeSclafani (three years, $36MM), Wood (two years, $25MM) and Alex Cobb (two years, $20MM).

Obviously, a $125MM investment is hardly a no-risk proposition, but spreading that number out across four pitchers without committing more than three years in length isn’t exactly working without a net for a team that averaged a $179MM payroll from 2015-19, topped out at $200.5MM in 2018, and has averaged a $152.5MM payroll over the past two seasons.

The quintet of Webb, Rodon, DeSclafani, Wood and Cobb had plenty of potential to be a strong group. It also had plenty of potential to be an injury-plagued unit that created ample headaches for the front office. Each of Rodon, DeSclafani, Wood and Cobb came with lengthy injury histories. Depth beyond that group was needed, and the Giants lacked it in the upper minors.

What followed was a series of sensible additions. Matthew Boyd inked a one-year deal worth $5.2MM, as the Giants hoped the longtime Tigers southpaw would be back from flexor surgery by mid-June. Former Royals righty Jakob Junis put pen to paper on a one-year, $1.75MM contract after being non-tendered by Kansas City. Carlos Martinez, a former All-Star with the Cardinals, signed a minor league contract.

Of all the names in that group, Junis was likely the most anonymous. A 29-year-old righty and former 29th-round pick, he looked the part of a player-development success story for the Royals during his first two seasons before flaming out in his final three years with Kansas City. From 2017-18, Junis gave the Royals 275 1/3 innings of 4.35 ERA ball with a strikeout rate just below the league average, a strong walk rate and slightly below-average ground-ball tendencies. It wasn’t a star-caliber profile by any means, but ask any scout in the world and they’d be thrilled at the notion of unearthing a viable fourth or fifth starter in the 29th round of the draft.

The 2019-21 seasons, however, didn’t pan out as either Junis or the Royals hoped. Although he made what’s still a career-high 31 starts in 2019, his ERA spiked to 5.24 as his walk rate ticked upward and he began to allow increasing amounts of hard contact. Things got even worse in 2020, and by June of 2021, Junis found himself optioned to Triple-A for the first time since 2017. Between that and the 5.36 ERA Junis posted from 2019-21, it wasn’t a surprise that the Royals opted not to tender him a contract, instead setting him out into the free-agent market.

Junis’ one-year deal with the Giants looked like a sensible depth pickup of an experienced arm with one minor league option year remaining, but it’s proven to be far more than that. In 17 games for San Francisco, 14 of them starts, Junis carries a 4.04 ERA with a 20.9% strikeout rate and a superb 4.7% walk rate. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.83), SIERA (3.72) and xERA (3.85) all feel he’s been a fair bit better than that. For much of the year, he’s sported an ERA in the mid- or low-3.00s, though a recent pair of six-run clunkers have inflated his ERA a bit.

Even with his recent scuffles, though, Junis has been far more than a simple stopgap in the rotation. He’s only averaging about five innings per start — more or less in line with the league average at this point — and has held opponents to three or fewer runs in 13 of his appearances on the season.

The Giants have altered Junis’ pitch selection and done so to good effect; he’s throwing his slider a career-high 51.9% of the time and has yielded only a .210/.255/.359 in the 192 plate appearances that have ended with that pitch. He’s also effectively scrapped his four-seamer and his cutter in favor of a sinker he’s throwing at a 30.6% clip, and while the pitch has still been hit hard, opponents are doing far less damage against the pitch than either of the previous two fastball iterations that Junis was using at a far higher clip.

Junis will probably end up giving the Giants anywhere from a win to two wins above replacement this year — he’s at 1.6 bWAR and 0.9 fWAR at the moment — which is a solid return on their minimal investment in and of itself. But the Giants will also retain Junis’ rights into the 2023 season, as he’s still arbitration-eligible and will finish out the year with five-plus years of service. He’ll be due a raise on this year’s salary, but jumping into the $3MM range for a serviceable fourth starter is nonetheless a bargain.

The Giants already have four starters under contract in 2023 — Webb, Wood, Cobb and DeSclafani — but could very well lose Carlos Rodon to free agency if he turns down his player option (which is a lock, so long as he remains healthy). They’re not going to simply replace Rodon with Junis and call it a day, so the likelihood is that they’ll add an impact starter and enter 2023 with Junis as the sixth or perhaps even seventh starter. That’d land him in the bullpen at the start of the season, likely in a long relief role, but given the injury histories of DeSclafani, Wood and Cobb, there ought to be innings available to him next year.

The Junis pickup obviously isn’t a masterstroke that’s going to alter the course of the franchise for years to come, but he’s quietly been quite valuable for a Giants club that has had its share of pitching injuries — and he’ll continue paying dividends on their investment into the 2023 season. Not a ton has gone right for the Giants this year, but their ability to rehab and, in some cases, reinvent pitchers remains quite strong.

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MLBTR Originals San Francisco Giants Jakob Junis

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Jose Alvarez Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

By Mark Polishuk | September 2, 2022 at 5:48pm CDT

SEPTEMBER 2: Alvarez indeed underwent Tommy John surgery this week, the Giants announced.

AUGUST 25: Giants left-hander Jose Alvarez’s 2022 season is over due to a setback in his injury rehab, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.  Alvarez hasn’t pitched since mid-June due to a pair of injured-list stints, first for a back strain and then elbow inflammation that Slusser reports was later diagnosed as a UCL strain.  The problem is serious enough that Tommy John surgery is likely necessary, though Alvarez will probably seek out a second opinion before making his final choice about surgery.

Due to the usual 12-15 month recovery timeframe for TJ surgery, Alvarez seems likely to miss the entire 2023 season.  On the off chance that Alvarez does find a favorable second opinion, it would still seem like he’d be facing a lengthy absence that might make him questionable for the start of the 2023 campaign, and there’s no guarantee that he wouldn’t eventually end up getting a Tommy John surgery anyway in the event of another setback.

It’s a tough outcome for the 33-year-old, who will end his 10th Major League season with just 15 1/3 innings pitched and a 5.28 ERA.  Alvarez signed a free agent with San Francisco prior to the 2021 season that ultimately paid him $2.55MM over the 2021-22 seasons, after the Giants exercised a club option on his services for 2022.

As such, the left-hander will now head into free agency with a lot of health uncertainty hanging over his market.  It doesn’t necessarily mean that Alvarez won’t be able to find a new deal this winter, as several pitchers in similar TJ situations have signed two-year contracts, with only a minimum salary for the first year of the contract in the understanding that the pitcher will miss most or all of the year rehabbing.

Alvarez had a solid track record of success as a member of the Angels and Phillies bullpens from 2015-19, posting a 3.36 ERA/3.80 SIERA over 295 innings in those seasons.  Alvarez wasn’t just a left-handed specialist, as he delivered good numbers against right-handed batters in addition to dominating left-handed batters.  His solid run was interrupted by an injury-plagued 2020 season, as he tossed only 6 1/3 innings for Philadelphia due to a groin injury.

It made for an ill-timed platform season as Alvarez was eligible for free agency for the first time, and the Giants ended up with a nice bargain for their modest $2.55MM investment.  Despite a 4.42 SIERA in 2021 and one of the lowest (15.8%) strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball, Alvarez outperformed his peripherals to post a 2.37 ERA over 64 2/3 frames last season, benefiting from a 50.5% grounder rate, lots of soft contact, and a .251 BABIP.

This performance made it a pretty easy call for the Giants to exercise their club option, but Alvarez unfortunately again finds himself heading into free agency as a big injury question mark.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Giants re-sign Alvarez to another low-cost two-year deal, even if there’s naturally more risk attached to an older pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery.

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San Francisco Giants Jose Alvarez

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Brandon Belt To Undergo Knee Surgery

By Anthony Franco | September 2, 2022 at 5:40pm CDT

Giants first baseman Brandon Belt will undergo season-ending surgery on his right knee tomorrow, he tells Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. The club informed reporters earlier in the week that surgery had been recommended, and the 34-year-old indeed decided to go under the knife after taking a couple days to deliberate.

Belt has been on the injured list a few times this season due to inflammation in that knee. This is far from the first year in which the joint has proven bothersome, as Belt has twice previously undergone surgery and had it drained on multiple occasions. In a forthright chat with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle last week, the 12-year MLB veteran acknowledged the knee could be problematic for the rest of his career.

During his interview with the Chronicle, Belt seemed to imply he could retire entirely if the knee injury were especially damaging. Speaking with Pavlovic today, however, he stated he intends to continue playing if he’s able. “It’s just going to depend. I’m going to play next year if I can get my knee healthy and strong again,” Belt said. “Last time I had this surgery (in 2015), I responded really well to it. That’s what I’m anticipating … If I can get it strong like I did (in 2015) then I’ll play, but if not then I’m not going to go out there and be substandard all the time. We’ll just have to see.”

Belt’s production has taken a huge hit this season, one of the reasons for the Giants inability to replicate last year’s 107-win campaign. Through 298 plate appearances, he hit only .213/.326/.350 with eight home runs. Belt’s just a season removed from blasting 29 longballs, but his hard contact rate has fallen more than six percentage points from last year’s 44.8% mark. It’s hard to imagine the persistent knee issues weren’t playing some role in those struggles, considering he mashed at a .285/.393/.595 clip between 2020-21.

It’s nevertheless tough to know what one can expect from Belt moving forward given his age and injury history. The career-long Giant is headed for free agency this offseason. Belt is making $18.4MM this year after accepting a qualifying offer last November, but he’ll certainly be facing a paycut during this trip to the open market.

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San Francisco Giants Brandon Belt

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Every Team’s Initial September Call-Ups

By Steve Adams and Anthony Franco | September 1, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

Each season as the calendar flips to September, we see a flurry of transactions around Major League Baseball. Active roster sizes jump from 26 to 28 for the season’s final month, with teams permitted to bring up no more than one additional pitcher. We’ve already covered a host of transactions with 40-man roster implications throughout the day at MLBTR. Here’s a full round-up of teams’ initial September roster moves.

American League West

Houston Astros:

  • Selected contract of RHP Hunter Brown
  • Selected contract of C Yainer Diaz
  • Corresponding moves: IF Niko Goodrum and RHP Peter Solomon designated for assignment

Los Angeles Angels:

  • Selected contract of OF Ryan Aguilar
  • Selected contract of RHP Zack Weiss
  • Corresponding moves: OF Steven Duggar and INF Jose Rojas designated for assignment

Oakland Athletics

  • Selected contract of LHP Ken Waldichuk from Triple-A Las vegas
  • Recalled OF Cody Thomas from Triple-A Las Vegas
  • Corresponding move: RHP David McKay designated for assignment

Seattle Mariners

  • Reinstated LHP Matthew Boyd from 60-day injured list
  • Recalled OF Taylor Trammell from Triple-A Tacoma
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Texas Rangers

  • Selected contract of RHP Jesus Tinoco from Triple-A Round Rock
  • Recalled OF Nick Solak from Triple-A Round Rock
  • Corresponding move: Transferred RHP Josh Sborz to 60-day injured list

American League Central

Chicago White Sox

  • Recalled OF Adam Haseley from Triple-A Charlotte
  • Recalled RHP Matt Foster from Triple-A Charlotte
  • Corresponding move: None required

Cleveland Guardians

  • Recalled SS Ernie Clement from Triple-A Columbus
  • Reinstated RHP Cody Morris from 60-day injured list
  • Corresponding move: Designated RHP Anthony Castro for assignment

Detroit Tigers

  • Recalled 1B Spencer Torkelson from Triple-A Toledo
  • Selected contract of INF Ryan Kreidler from Triple-A Toledo
  • Corresponding move: Transferred RHP Rony Garcia to 60-day injured list

Kansas City Royals

  • Selected contract of RHP Daniel Mengden from Triple-A Omaha
  • Recalled OF Nate Eaton from Triple-A Omaha
  • Corresponding move: None required

Minnesota Twins

  • Added LHP Austin Davis (previously claimed off waivers from Red Sox) to active roster
  • Selected contract of OF Billy Hamilton from Triple-A St. Paul
  • Corresponding move: Transferred OF Trevor Larnach to 60-day injured list

American League East

Baltimore Orioles

  • Selected contract of 1B Jesus Aguilar from Triple-A Norfolk
  • Recalled LHP DL Hall from Triple-A Norfolk
  • Corresponding move: Designated INF Richie Martin for assignment

Boston Red Sox

  • Recalled C Connor Wong from Triple-A Worcester
  • Selected contract of RHP Eduard Bazardo
  • Corresponding moves: None required

New York Yankees

  • Recalled SS Oswald Peraza from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
  • Activated INF Marwin Gonzalez from paternity list
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Reinstated RHP Matt Wisler from the 15-day injured list
  • Recalled INF Jonathan Aranda from Triple-A Durham
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Recalled RHP Casey Lawrence from Triple-A Buffalo
  • Added OF Bradley Zimmer (claimed off waivers from Phillies this week) to active roster
  • Corresponding moves: None required

National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Selected contract of IF Wilmer Difo from Triple-A Reno
  • Reinstated RHP Keynan Middleton and LHP Kyle Nelson from 15-day injured list
  • Corresponding move: Designated RHP Noe Ramirez for assignment

Colorado Rockies

  • Recalled INF Alan Trejo from Triple-A Albuquerque
  • Recalled RHP Chad Smith from Triple-A Albuquerque
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Reinstated LHP Clayton Kershaw from 15-day injured list
  • Recalled 3B Miguel Vargas from Triple-A Oklahoma City
  • Corresponding moves: None required

San Diego Padres

  • Recalled INF Matt Beaty from Triple-A El Paso
  • Recalled RHP Reiss Knehr from Triple-A El Paso
  • Corresponding moves: None required

San Francisco Giants

  • Selected contract of recently-acquired OF Lewis Brinson
  • Recalled IF David Villar from Triple-A Sacramento
  • Corresponding move: Outrighted LHP Jonathan Bermudez to Triple-A Sacramento

National League Central

Chicago Cubs

  • Selected contract of RHP Jeremiah Estrada from Triple-A Iowa
  • Recalled INF David Bote from Triple-A Iowa
  • Corresponding move: Transferred Wade Miley from 15-day injured list to 60-day injured list

Cincinnati Reds

  • Selected contract of 2B/3B Spencer Steer
  • Selected contract of RHP Fernando Cruz
  • Corresponding moves: Transferred INF Mike Moustakas and RHP Jeff Hoffman from 10-day injured list to 60-day injured list

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Recalled RHP Luis Perdomo from Triple-A Nashville
  • Recalled OF Esteury Ruiz from Triple-A Nashville
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Recalled RHP Johan Oviedo from Triple-A Indianapolis
  • Recalled OF Calvin Mitchell from Triple-A Indianapolis
  • Corresponding moves: None required

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Selected contract of OF Ben DeLuzio from Triple-A Memphis
  • Recalled RHP James Naile from Triple-A Memphis
  • Corresponding moves: None required

National League East

Atlanta Braves

  • Reinstated IF Orlando Arcia from 10-day injured list
  • Added recently-claimed RHP Jesse Chavez to active roster
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Miami Marlins*

  • To recall OF Bryan De La Cruz
  • To recall RHP Jeff Brigham
  • Corresponding moves: None required

New York Mets

  • Selected contract of INF Deven Marrero from Triple-A Syracuse
  • Recalled RHP Adonis Medina from Triple-A Syracuse
  • Corresponding move: Designated RHP Connor Grey for assignment

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Selected contract of RHP Vinny Nittoli from Triple-A Lehigh Valley
  • Recalled C Donny Sands from Triple-A Lehigh Valley
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Washington Nationals

  • Recalled C Tres Barrera from Triple-A Rochester
  • Recalled RHP Mason Thompson from Triple-A Rochester
  • Corresponding moves: None required

*Marlins moves reported by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (Twitter link)

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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians Colorado Rockies Detroit Tigers Houston Astros Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Dodgers Miami Marlins Milwaukee Brewers Minnesota Twins New York Mets New York Yankees Oakland Athletics Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners St. Louis Cardinals Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Washington Nationals Adam Haseley Alan Trejo Bradley Zimmer Bryan De La Cruz Cal Mitchell Casey Lawrence Chad Smith David Bote David Villar Donny Sands Ernie Clement Esteury Ruiz Jeff Brigham Jesse Chavez Johan Oviedo Jonathan Aranda Luis Perdomo Marwin Gonzalez Mason Thompson Matt Beaty Matt Boyd Matt Foster Matt Wisler Matthew Boyd Nate Eaton Orlando Arcia Reiss Knehr Rony Garcia Taylor Trammell Tres Barrera Vinny Nittoli Wade Miley

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Giants Select Lewis Brinson, Outright Jonathan Bermudez

By Anthony Franco | September 1, 2022 at 3:46pm CDT

The Giants announced they’ve selected outfielder Lewis Brinson onto the major league roster. Brinson, who was acquired from the Astros for cash considerations in a minor league trade this morning, will step right into the big leagues as a September call-up. In a corresponding move, San Francisco sent left-hander Jonathan Bermudez outright to Triple-A Sacramento. The Giants hadn’t previously announced that Bermudez had been designated for assignment, but he’s apparently already cleared waivers and no longer occupies a spot on the 40-man roster.

It was a short stay on the 40-man for Bermudez, who was just claimed off waivers from Houston a week ago. The left-hander has yet to throw a pitch in the San Francisco organization. Added to Houston’s 40-man roster last offseason to prevent him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft, Bermudez has had a disappointing year in Triple-A. The 26-year-old started 14 of his 19 games with the Astros top affiliate in Sugar Land, but he only managed an 8.96 ERA through 67 1/3 frames. He surrendered a staggering 16 home runs in that time (2.14 HR/9) while only striking out 20% of batters faced.

The season obviously hasn’t been kind to Bermudez, but he’d posted huge strikeout numbers up through the Triple-A level coming into this year. He’ll remain in the organization, with San Francisco’s player development staff having an opportunity to help him get back on track. Bermudez will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter if he’s not added back onto the 40-man roster by the start of the offseason, but it seems unlikely he’d be selected after this year’s rough showing barring a major bounceback this month.

San Francisco announced that reliever Andrew Vasquez has likewise gone unclaimed on waivers. Designated for assignment yesterday, Vasquez has also been outrighted to Sacramento. Unlike Bermudez, he’ll have the right to refuse that assignment and test free agency as a player who has previously cleared outright waivers in his career. Vasquez has been a part of the Blue Jays, Phillies and Giants organizations this season, but he’s only appeared in nine MLB games (all with Toronto). The left-hander has had an excellent year in the minors, working to a cumulative 1.86 ERA over 19 1/3 innings, mostly at Triple-A.

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San Francisco Giants Transactions Andrew Vasquez Jonathan Bermudez Lewis Brinson

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Astros Trade Lewis Brinson To Giants

By Steve Adams | September 1, 2022 at 10:23am CDT

The Giants have acquired outfielder Lewis Brinson in a trade with the Astros, as first indicated on the transactions log at MLB.com. Brinson was eligible to be traded by virtue of the fact that he’s on a minor league deal with Houston and has not, at any point, been on a Major League roster or injured list this season.

[Related: How to Acquire Players After the Trade Deadline]

Once one of the sport’s consensus top prospects, Brinson’s blend of raw power, speed and a plus throwing arm have never been enough to outshine his strikeout issues, minimal walk rate and lack of hard contact. A first-round pick by the Rangers back in 2012, he was traded to the Brewers as the centerpiece in Texas’ acquisition of former All-Star catcher Jonathan Lucroy and then to Miami as the headliner in Milwaukee’s acquisition of 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich.

Brinson was widely considered to be among baseball’s 30 best prospects from 2016-18, but he’s now appeared in 341 big league games — mostly with the Marlins — and posted just a .199/.248/.323 batting line in 1111 plate appearances. He’s punched out in 28.2% of his Major League plate appearances against just a 5% walk rate, and when he’s made contact, the plus raw power Brinson possesses hasn’t shined through, likely due to his poor pitch selection (career 40.2% chase rate on pitches off the plate). Brinson’s 88.6 mph average exit velocity and 37.1% hard-hit rate are both pedestrian marks that align roughly with the collective league averages over his big league tenure.

All that said, there’s no denying that Brinson has posted strong results in Triple-A this season. Through 364 trips to the plate in Sugar Land, he’s slashed .299/.356/.574 with 22 home runs, 21 doubles, five triples and five steals (in eight tries). He’s still fanned in 28% of his plate appearances, however, and his 7.1% walk rate doesn’t suggest he’s become much more selective at the dish. Brinson has also had comparable Triple-A success in the past (.331/.400/.562 in a similar sample of plate appearances back in 2017).

The Astros seemingly weren’t going to bring Brinson to the big leagues and have several players they’d like to get some playing time in Triple-A, including recently optioned center fielder Jake Meyers. A trade of Brinson to the Giants gives Houston some extra playing time for younger players who are viewed as potential contributors beyond the 2022 season; Brinson would simply have been a free agent at season’s end unless added to the 40-man roster.

For the Giants, Brinson will give them some depth and a potential September call-up to the join the outfield mix. If he indeed reaches the big leagues with San Francisco and shows some signs of improvement against MLB pitching, he’d be controllable for another three years via arbitration. It may be a long shot, but given what’s surely a minimal cost of acquisition — the teams have not yet announced the moves, and the transactions log does not specify a return — there’s little harm in rolling the dice on a former top prospect who won’t turn 29 until next May.

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Giants Select Andrew Knapp, Designate Andrew Vasquez

By Darragh McDonald | August 31, 2022 at 2:15pm CDT

The Giants have selected catcher Andrew Knapp to their roster, tweets Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News. Utility player Yermin Mercedes was optioned to make room on the active roster. To open a space on the 40-man roster, left-hander Andrew Vasquez was designated for assignment.

The Giants are in need of another catching option due to Joey Bart leaving Monday’s game after suffering a concussion. He was placed on the seven-day concussion IL yesterday with Yermin Mercedes being recalled in a corresponding move. Mercedes is more of an emergency catcher these days, however, as he’s only donned the tools of ignorance for one inning in the majors this year and eight in Triple-A. With Austin Wynns likely to become the primary catcher in Bart’s absence, the Giants could use a veteran backstop on hand in order for Wynns to get the occasional day off. As such, Knapp will step in with Mercedes heading back to the minors.

Knapp, 30, was a second-round draft pick of the Phillies and spent the first five years of his career there. From 2017 to 2021, he hit .214/.314/.322. A switch-hitter, he’s generally been better as a lefty against right-handed pitchers, though he’s been subpar on each side. He has a 54 wRC+ against lefties and a 73 against righties.

He was outrighted by the Phillies at the end of last season and has leaned into journeyman status since then. He signed a minors deal with the Reds in December but didn’t make the Opening Day roster. He was released and signed with the Pirates, getting designated for assignment after over a month with the Bucs. He then signed a minors deal with the Mariners, eventually getting called up and spending about two weeks with them before getting designated again and landing with the Giants on another minors deal. Between all those transactions, he’s hit .114/.205/.143 in 13 big league games but .259/.316/.540 in 47 Triple-A games.

Vasquez, 28, has seen very scattered MLB action in his career, logging 13 1/3 innings since the start of the 2018 season. He began this year by signing a big league deal with the Blue Jays, though spent most of his time optioned to Triple-A. He lost his spot on the 40-man roster at the end of August as the Jays made other acquisitions, landing with the Phillies on waivers. The Phillies also kept him in the minors, designating him for assignment two weeks later. The Giants followed the same playbook, claiming him off waivers and sending him to Triple-A before designated him a couple of weeks later. Across those three organizations, he’s thrown 19 1/3 Triple-A innings on the year with a 1.86 ERA, 36.5% strikeout rate and 4.1% walk rate. Given those solid results and the fact that left-handed relief is always in demand, it seems like a decent bet he’ll find interest on the waiver wire.

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Previewing Upcoming Opt-Out Decisions And Player Options

By Anthony Franco | August 30, 2022 at 11:59pm CDT

With the offseason approaching, so is the time for players and teams to decide upon any 2023 options in their contracts. MLBTR has taken a look through various option decisions in recent weeks: first with players whose deals contain vesting provisions, then a respective look at the team options in both the American and National Leagues.

Today, we’ll turn our attention to the players’ side. A number of players could hit free agency this winter either by triggering an opt-out clause in their current deal or bypassing a player option for the 2023 campaign. We’ll take a run through those decisions, many of which will have implications at the very top of the free agent market.

Note: All stats referenced are through play Sunday

Elite Potential Free Agents

  • Nolan Arenado, Cardinals 3B (can opt out of final five years and $144MM)

Arenado was already on a Hall of Fame trajectory before 2022, but he’s bolstering his case with the best season of his career. Through 500 plate appearances, he owns a .306/.370/.567 line with 27 home runs. He’s had seasons with that kind of slash line in years past, but they came with the caveat that he’d played half his games at Coors Field. That’s no longer a factor, and it’s easily his best offensive output once one adjusts for the ballpark. Arenado’s 162 wRC+ is the fourth-best mark among qualified hitters.

That kind of offensive production alone would get him in the MVP discussion, but Arenado’s obviously valuable for far more than his bat. One of the best defensive third basemen in MLB history, he’s continued to post elite marks with the glove even as he’s entered his 30s. Arenado is among the top handful of players in the game. While walking away from $144MM wouldn’t be an easy decision, it’d seem the prudent one from a strict financial perspective. Freddie Freeman received six years and $162MM from the Dodgers (albeit with deferrals that reduced the net present value closer to the $148MM range) headed into his age-32 season. Freeman was coming off a 135 wRC+ platform showing, and he plays a less valuable position. Arenado and his camp could make a strong argument the Freeman contract should represent his floor, and it’s not outlandish to seek a six-year deal at the $35MM annual range Anthony Rendon received from the Angels (which would bring the guarantee to $210MM).

On paper, Arenado’s opt-out decision looks like a slam dunk. There’s at least some amount of uncertainty, though, as he forewent an opt-out opportunity last offseason and told Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch it was “always the plan” to remain in St. Louis long term. Passing on free agency coming off a .255/.312/.494 showing in 2021 is a lot easier than doing so after a career-best year that should make him an MVP finalist. Maybe he’s comfortable enough with the Cardinals he’ll return, but he’d probably be leaving a lot of money on the table to do so. At the very least, he looks to have a case for a renegotiation of his contract with the Cards, which is slated to pay him just $15MM in the final season (2027).

  • Carlos Correa, Twins SS (can opt out of final two years and $70.2MM this offseason; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Correa opts in this winter)

Regarded by many (MLBTR included) as the top free agent in last winter’s class, Correa reportedly turned down at least one ten-year offer early in the offseason in search of a guarantee that rivaled the $341MM Francisco Lindor had received from the Mets last April. That proposal seemingly never came, and Correa reversed course in Spring Training. He signed a shocking three-year deal with the Twins that guaranteed him the largest annual salary ($35.1MM) for a free agent position player and afforded the opportunity to retest the market in either of the next two offseasons via opt-out.

Conventional wisdom was that Correa was sure to trigger his first opt-out and make another run at a long-term deal in a winter unaffected by a lockout. That still seems likely, although he hasn’t resoundingly made the case for teams to be more willing to approach the Lindor range that they had been. He’s having a similar offensive season as he did during his final year with the Astros. After posting a .279/.366/.485 showing his last year in Houston, Correa is hitting .276/.355/.439 over 440 plate appearances with Minnesota. His raw power production is down, but that’s not quite as alarming when considering the leaguewide slugging percentage has dropped from .411 to .395. Perhaps of greater concern is that the elite defensive marks that garnered Correa a Gold Glove last season are unanimously down, ranging anywhere from below-average (-2 Outs Above Average) to solid (+4 Defensive Runs Saved, +1 Ultimate Zone Rating).

There’s no question Correa’s an excellent player having a very good season. Yet he’s not likely to wind up a top five finisher in MVP balloting as he did in 2021. He’d top a $200MM guarantee on the open market, but he’s unlikely to reach the kind of money he anticipated last offseason. Could he return to Minnesota (where he’s by all accounts very happy) for one more year and look to trigger his post-2023 opt-out after hopefully putting up MVP-caliber numbers? That feels unlikely, but he’s already bet on himself once and would only be entering his age-29 season if he put off opting out for a year.

  • Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox SS (can opt out of final three years and $60MM)

Bogaerts has been the Red Sox’s everyday shortstop since 2014, but his time in Boston could be nearing its end. He and the club didn’t make progress in extension talks this spring, and he’s a lock to opt out and top $60MM on the open market barring a catastrophic injury. One of the game’s top offensive shortstops, Bogaerts is amidst another strong season. He carries a .303/.372/.448 line through 508 plate appearances. His slugging output is below where it was from 2018-21, but he consistently gets on base and has a strong pre-2022 track record from a power perspective.

One can quibble about certain aspects of Boagerts’ profile. In addition to this year’s slugging dip, he’s traditionally rated as a below-average defender. Even with generally solid defensive metrics this season, clubs will probably have some question whether he’ll eventually need to move to second or third base. Those are nitpicks for whether Bogaerts would be a worthwhile investment in the $180MM – $200MM range, though. A 30-year-old shortstop with an elite durability track record and a .299/.370/.478 line since the start of 2020, he’s certainly going to shatter $60MM even if the market takes a relatively pessimistic view of his long-term projection.

  • Jacob deGrom, Mets RHP (can opt of final year and $33.5MM this offseason)

There’s no suspense with this one, as deGrom has publicly maintained his plan to opt out for months. That’s in spite of elbow/shoulder injuries that kept him from throwing a major league pitch between July 2021 and this August. With only one guaranteed year remaining on his deal (plus a 2024 club option that’d go into effect if he doesn’t opt out this winter), that’s been a pretty easy call. To the extent there may have been any lingering doubts, deGrom has silenced them with his first five starts since returning from the injured list. He’s looked like his vintage self, averaging 99.3 MPH on his fastball while posting a laughable 46:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 29 1/3 innings. On an inning-for-inning basis, he’s the best starting pitcher on the planet.

deGrom’s free agent case will be fascinating. Even if he finishes the season healthy, he’ll have gone three consecutive years without topping 15 starts or 100 innings (although he’s obviously not at fault for the shortened 2020 schedule). What kind of volume a signing team can expect is an open question, particularly as he enters his age-35 season. Yet the upside of a healthy deGrom is through the roof. He’ll receive a multi-year deal that beats the $33.5MM remaining on his current contract. Can he top teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM AAV over a three or even four-year term? Time will tell.

  • Justin Verlander, Astros RHP ($25MM option for 2023)

While we’re on the topic of upper-echelon starting pitchers who are basically certain to opt out, let’s turn to Verlander. The future Hall of Famer triggered a $25MM option for next season by throwing 130 innings, but that’s largely a moot point. Verlander told Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic last week he was likely to opt out if things went as planned down the stretch. It’d have been surprising if he were even considering exercising the option.

Verlander has returned from 2020 Tommy John surgery to lead the major leagues with a 1.84 ERA. He’s striking out 26.5% of opponents and has a strong argument for a third career Cy Young award. He’s also a proven playoff performer and a prototypical ace who eats about as many innings as anyone else in the game. Even heading into his age-40 season, Verlander can try to beat the Scherzer AAV on a multi-year contract.

Verlander did injure his calf in his most recent start, resulting in a placement on the injured list just this afternoon. The Astros announced that an MRI of his calf revealed “fascial disruption, but no muscle fiber disruption” — an extremely specific diagnosis but one that both Verlander and GM James Click touted as good news. Click expressed hope the injury will be short-term, and Verlander suggested that had he sustained damage to the muscle fibers themselves, he’d likely have missed the remainder of the regular season and perhaps part of the postseason.

The manner to which Verlander rebounds will obviously be key in his opt-out scenario, but if he misses only a couple weeks’ time and returns strong for his final regular-season and postseason starts, this opt-out is an easy call.

  • Carlos Rodón, Giants LHP ($22.5MM option for 2023)

We’ll wrap up the trifecta with Rodón, who’s also going to have an easy decision, barring injury. While there was some trepidation about Rodón’s breakout 2021 season — both due to his inconsistent track record before last season and some shoulder soreness and a velocity drop last August — he’s doubled down and looks to have cemented himself among the game’s top ten starters. Rodón has avoided the injured list thus far, and he’s striking out 32.1% of opponents while posting a 2.81 ERA through 25 starts. By topping 110 innings, he earned the right to opt out after this season.

Heading into his age-30 campaign, he should land the nine-figure deal that eluded him last offseason. Between his youth and last two years of production, Rodón has an argument for the largest guarantee of any free agent starter. He won’t get paid at the deGrom or Verlander level on an annual basis, but he could push for six years and look to top $150MM.

Quality Regulars Likely To Opt Out

  • Anthony Rizzo, Yankees 1B ($16MM option for 2023)

Rizzo’s market last offseason seemed a bit underwhelming. The veteran first baseman was coming off two fine but unspectacular seasons, and it looked as if his best days might be behind him with his mid-30s approaching. Rizzo still made plenty of contact and hit the ball hard, but he’d gotten quite pull-oriented and had rough ball-in-play results against an increasing number of defensive shifts. He signed a two-year deal with the Yankees that paid him matching $16MM salaries and allowed him to opt out after this season.

That now looks like an easy call, as Rizzo has bounced back with a year more reminiscent of his peak days with the Cubs. He carries a .223/.337/.480 line and is going to top 30 homers for the first time since 2017. He’s still getting dismal results on balls in play and doesn’t have a particularly impressive batting average, but even that looks as if might turn around next year. It’s widely expected MLB will institute limits on shifting next spring. Few players would stand to benefit more than Rizzo, who’s facing a shift on a whopping 83.5% of his plate appearances according to Statcast. His age and lack of defensive versatility will limit the length of any deal, but he’ll probably beat the $16MM salary over at least a two-year term, even if the Yankees tag him with a qualifying offer.

  • Jurickson Profar, Padres LF ($8.5MM option, $1MM buyout)

The Padres’ signing Profar to a three-year, $21MM deal that allowed him multiple opt-out chances was one of the more eyebrow-raising moves of the 2020-21 offseason. The switch-hitter was coming off a solid 2020 campaign, but that shortened schedule was the first in which he’d posted above-average production. It looked like a misstep when he struggled last year and unsurprisingly forewent his first opt-out clause, but Profar has rewarded the organization’s faith with a career-best showing in 2022.

Through 530 plate appearances, he’s hitting .241/.339/.387 with 12 homers. He’s walking at a robust 12.3% clip while only going down on strikes 15.1% of the time. He looks like a solid regular, and headed into his age-30 season, Profar’s a candidate for another multi-year deal this time around. After major throwing issues as an infielder early in his career, he’s played exclusively left field this year. Profar isn’t a prototypical corner outfield masher, but his plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills should allow him to top the guaranteed money remaining on his current deal.

Starting Pitchers With High Buyouts

  • Taijuan Walker, Mets RHP ($6MM option, $3MM buyout)

Walker signed a $20MM guarantee with the Mets over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal was front-loaded but came with a $6MM player option or a $3MM buyout for 2023. Adding a player option allowed the Mets to soften the contract’s luxury tax hit. Because player options are treated as guaranteed money, it technically qualified as a three-year, $20MM deal with a $6.67MM average annual value for CBT purposes. Yet the $3MM gap between the option value and the buyout meant Walker was a virtual lock to opt out, barring injury that made him unable to pitch next season. The Associated Press reports the option has various escalators that could push its value as high as $8.5MM if Walker throws 175 innings this year, but even that figure is modest enough he’s going to decline.

Walker should opt out in search of a multi-year deal, as he’s been a valuable mid-rotation arm for New York. Over 117 1/3 frames, he owns a 3.38 ERA despite a modest 18.3% strikeout rate. His blend of plus control and solid ground-ball rates makes him a candidate for a three-year pact as he heads into his age-30 season. The Mets will have an interesting decision on whether to tag him with a qualifying offer.

  • Jake Odorizzi, Braves RHP ($12.5MM option, $6.25MM buyout)

Like Walker, Odorizzi signed late in the 2020-21 offseason on a deal that locked in the first two seasons and gave the player a third-year option. Odorizzi’s contract with the Astros was similarly structured to facilitate a third-year buyout while diminishing the AAV for luxury tax purposes, although he’s deciding on a bit more money. The option was initially valued at $6.5MM with a $3.25MM buyout, but the Associated Press provided a breakdown of various escalators. The option value would jump by $2MM apiece if Odorizzi reached 20, 25 and 30 appearances between 2021-22 in which he either started the game or worked four-plus innings of relief. The buyout value would spike by $1MM apiece for hitting each of those thresholds.

Odorizzi has already made 41 such appearances over the past two years, so he’s long since maxed out both thresholds. He’ll therefore be deciding between a $12.5MM option to return to the Braves or taking a $6.25MM buyout and heading to free agency. With only a $6.25MM difference between the option value and the buyout, Odorizzi looks like a borderline opt-out case. He owns a 3.90 ERA across 85 1/3 innings this season, although his 18.3% strikeout rate is a few points below league average. He’ll be 33 by next Opening Day, and he didn’t find as robust interest as most expected he would during his last trip through free agency. He’s a quality strike-thrower and a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation starter, but it’s now been three years since he’s missed bats at an above-average rate, and he was traded this summer in a one-for-one swap for an underperforming reliever (Will Smith).

Easy Calls To Return

  • Chris Sale, Red Sox LHP (can opt out of final two years and $55MM)

Sale has the right to pass on the final two years of his extension with the Red Sox this winter, but he certainly won’t do so. He’s made just 11 starts over the past three seasons due to various injuries, including a 2020 Tommy John surgery and a trio of fractures (rib, finger and wrist) this year. Sale has still flashed mid-rotation or better upside in the limited time he’s been on the field, but there’s too much uncertainty with his health to land anywhere near $55MM were he to test the market.

  • Eric Hosmer, Red Sox 1B (can opt out of final three years and $39MM)

Hosmer’s opt-in decision is a no-brainer. Since signing a $144MM contract with the Padres heading into 2018, he’s posted a league average .264/.325/.409 slash line. Paired with his lack of defensive versatility and mixed reviews on his glovework (public metrics have never been as fond of Hosmer as his four Gold Gloves would suggest), he’d probably be limited to one-year offers were he a free agent. The Padres will remain on the hook for virtually all of the money, as they agreed to pay down Hosmer’s deal to the league minimum salary to facilitate his trade to the Red Sox.

  • Jorge Soler, Marlins LF (can opt out of final two years and $24MM; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Soler opts in this year)

Soler parlayed a big second half and huge batted ball metrics into a three-year deal with Miami last offseason. His massive raw power hasn’t translated into especially strong results since he’s become a Marlin, however. He’s been a below-average hitter, and it’s now been three years since he was a middle-of-the-order caliber player over a full season. Paired with a limited defensive profile that keeps him in the corner outfield or at designated hitter, he’s been right around replacement level this season. He’s not opting out this year, but a big showing in 2023 could allow him to reconsider the possibility next winter.

  • AJ Pollock, White Sox LF ($11MM option, $5MM buyout)

The White Sox acquired Pollock just before the start of the season, sending Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers in a surprising one-for-one swap. The hope was that they’d addressed a notable hole in the corner outfield, but Pollock’s production has cratered in Chicago. Just a season removed from a .297/.355/.536 showing in L.A., he’s stumbled to a .237/.284/.363 line through 401 plate appearances with the ChiSox. Even with a fairly modest $6MM gap between the option’s present value and the buyout, Pollock is likely to bypass a trip to free agency after a replacement-level platform season.

The present $11MM option value isn’t fixed, as Pollock’s contract contains escalators that could boost it a bit further. Originally set at $10MM, he’d lock in an extra $1MM for hitting each of 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances this season. He’s already surpassed 400 trips, and the 450 mark is well within range with 34 games remaining. Consistent playing time down the stretch would allow him to reach 500 plate appearances as well, although it’s hard to envision him getting to 550. The most likely outcome is that the option price ends up at $12MM, but anywhere between $11-13MM is viable.

  • Jonathan Schoop, Tigers 2B ($7.5MM option)

Schoop signed a two-year, $15MM extension amidst a productive 2021 season in Detroit. While a defensible enough decision for the Tigers at the time, that hasn’t panned out. The veteran second baseman has a .235 on-base percentage that’s easily the worst in the majors among players with 400+ plate appearances. He’s posted otherworldly defensive marks this season and could well collect a Gold Glove, but the complete lack of production at the dish should make him a lock to exercise his option.

  • Charlie Blackmon, Rockies DH/RF ($12MM option)

Blackmon exercised a 2022 option last season, and he went on the record at the time as saying he’d trigger the 2023 provision as well. There’s no intrigue as to his decision — he’ll be back in Colorado next year — the only question is how much he’ll make. The ’23 option came with a $10MM base value, but ESPN reported it’d escalate by $500K apiece if Blackmon reached 400, 425, 450, 475, 500, and 525 plate appearances in 2022. It’d jump another $1MM apiece at 550 and 575 trips.

The veteran outfielder enters play Tuesday with 490 plate appearances, so he’s already pushed the value to $12MM. Barring injury, he’s a lock to hit at least the 525 PA mark, and he’s quite likely to get all the way to 575. Colorado has 33 games remaining, and Blackmon is only 85 plate appearances (2.76 per game) from maxing out the plate appearance threshold at $15MM. The deal also contained escalators based on MVP finishes which Blackmon will not hit.

Relievers

  • Nick Martinez, Padres RHP (can opt out of final three years and $19.5MM this offseason, $1.5MM buyout; deal also contains opt-out chances after 2023 and 2024 if Martinez opts in)

Martinez signed a four-year, $25.5MM guarantee with San Diego this past winter. That deal contained opt-out chances after each of the first three seasons for the former NPB hurler, but it seems unlikely Martinez will take his first opportunity to return to the open market. He has a strong 3.02 ERA over 92 1/3 innings during his return season in the big leagues, but he’s worked as a swingman for a San Diego team that has quite a bit of rotation depth. Martinez has excelled as a reliever, pitching to a 1.35 ERA while holding opponents to a .208/.258/.295 line in 40 innings. That’s come with a modest 21.5% strikeout rate, though, and he doesn’t brandish the power arsenal teams tend to prioritize late in games.

Entering his age-32 season, Martinez probably wouldn’t find a better deal that the opt-out laden three years and $18MM (after factoring in the buyout price) he’d be bypassing to return to the open market. The Friars have to be happy with their investment considering his excellence out of the bullpen, but the surprisingly strong deal they gave him in the first place makes it hard to see him doing much better elsewhere even on the heels of a quality first season.

  • Andrew Chafin, Tigers LHP ($6.5MM option)

Detroit signed the ever-reliable Chafin late last offseason, and they’ve been rewarded with another excellent year. Through 43 1/3 innings, he’s posted a 2.91 ERA while striking out more than 30% of opponents with an excellent 52.3% ground-ball rate. The market probably undervalued Chafin last winter; it’d be hard to do so again after another very good season. In a vacuum, declining the option and topping $6.5MM in free agency seems likely.

That said, the Tigers decision to not trade Chafin at this summer’s deadline was tied to a belief he could stick around. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press reported shortly before the deadline that Detroit’s proximity to Chafin’s Ohio home could lead him to return in 2023 if he weren’t moved before August 2. That led to a disconnect in his trade value, with the Tigers confident they still possessed a year and a half of his services while other clubs viewed him as an impending free agent. From a strict financial perspective, opting out is the prudent call. Yet the family considerations Petzold noted would make the decision more complicated if Chafin’s priority isn’t simply to maximize his earnings.

  • Robert Suárez, Padres RHP ($5MM option, $1MM buyout)

San Diego added Suárez, who’d never previously pitched in the majors, on the heels of an excellent career closing in Japan. He had a nightmare outing on Opening Day where he dished out free passes to all three batters he faced, but he’s been quite effective since that point. Excluding his first appearance, Suárez owns a 2.36 ERA with a strong 29% strikeout rate in 34 1/3 innings. He’s still had spotty control, but he’s averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. He’d only need to beat $4MM on the open market, and something around that rate over a multi-year term feels attainable heading into his age-32 season. A rough final couple months could change the calculus, but Suárez seems likely to retest free agency at the moment.

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Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox Chicago White Sox Colorado Rockies Detroit Tigers Houston Astros MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins Minnesota Twins New York Mets New York Yankees San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals A.J. Pollock Andrew Chafin Anthony Rizzo Carlos Correa Carlos Rodon Charlie Blackmon Chris Sale Eric Hosmer Jacob deGrom Jake Odorizzi Jonathan Schoop Jorge Soler Jurickson Profar Justin Verlander Nick Martinez Nolan Arenado Robert Suarez Taijuan Walker Xander Bogaerts

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