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Brewers, Rays Agree To Swap Aguilar, Faria

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The Rays and Brewers have agreed to a trade sending first baseman Jesus Aguilar from Milwaukee to Tampa Bay, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter links). Milwaukee is acquiring right-hander Jake Faria in return.

Jesus Aguilar | Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Aguilar, 29, is in the midst of a down season at the plate but was an All-Star who bashed 35 home runs as recently as 2018. The 26-year-old Faria, similarly, looked to be a pitcher on the rise with a terrific rookie campaign in 2017 but has struggled to replicate that success in 2018-19.

Both players are fairly logical change-of-scenery candidates whose skill sets more closely align with the current needs of their new organizations. The Brewers have been hit hard by pitching injuries this season and currently have three rotation pieces on the injured list. The Rays, meanwhile, have been searching for a right-handed bat for quite some time and were linked to Aguilar more than a week ago.

It’s been a tough season for Aguilar, whose outstanding .274/.352/.539 output in 2018 has given way to a woeful .225/.320/.374 slash line in 2019. Aguilar’s strikeout and walk rates have both improved, but his line-drive, fly-ball and hard-hit rates have all taken a step back. That said, Statcast still likes Aguilar as a potential bounceback candidate based on the quality of the contact he’s made, as his expected wOBA of .342 dwarfs his actual .304 wOBA. He’s swinging a hot bat in the month of July as well, raking at a .298/.346/.574 clip in a small sample of 52 plate appearances.

Jake Faria | Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Faria debuted with the Rays in ’17 and immediately contributed 86 2/3 innings of 3.43 ERA ball while averaging 8.7 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 with a 38.3 percent ground-ball rate as a 23-year-old. It wasn’t an elite arrival on the big league scene, but it was certainly heartening enough to view him as a potential long-term piece in the rotation.

Instead, however, Faria’s K/BB rates trended in the wrong direction in 2018 as he limped to a 5.40 ERA in 65 MLB frames. He’s moved to the bullpen this year and allowed three runs in 10 MLB innings. As a reliever with Triple-A Durham, he’s logged 45 2/3 innings of 2.17 ERA ball with a 54-to-19 K/BB ratio.

Both players arrive in their new organizations as potential long-term fits. Aguilar will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter and can be controlled through the 2022 season. Faria hasn’t reached two years of big league service yet but quite likely will before the end of the year. Assuming he accrues the remaining time he needs, Faria would be arbitration-eligible after the 2020 season and controllable through 2023.

Latest On Yasiel Puig

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7:05pm: There are “mixed opinions” in regards to Atlanta’s interest, per Heyman, who names the Indians and Rays as teams that seem to be eyeing Puig. He’s not the first right-handed slugger Cleveland and Tampa Bay have been connected to in recent days.

6:45pm: The Braves, known to be on the lookout for outfield help, have shown interest in the Reds’ Yasiel Puig, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.

The outfield may not have been a significant concern for the Braves until they lost starting right fielder Nick Markakis to a fractured wrist over the weekend. Markakis will likely be on the shelf until sometime in September. In the meantime, the Braves will continue trying to maintain their lead in the National League East. They currently hold a 4 1/2-game advantage over the Nationals, who were 7 1/2 back just a couple weeks ago.

As things stand, the Markakis-less Braves have Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Ender Inciarte and Adam Duvall as their top four outfielders. Aside from the great Acuna, there’s no surefire producer in the bunch. The rookie Riley began his career with a flourish, but his numbers have plummeted as the season has progressed, and they’ve been especially woeful in July. Inciarte, normally a solid all-around player, has been rather poor at the plate this season. And though Duvall (acquired from the Reds last summer) was a 30-home run hitter twice in a row in Cincinnati from 2016-17, he was so subpar between Cincy and Atlanta in 2018 that it took Markakis’ injury for him to earn a call-up to the Braves’ roster this year.

Enter Puig? The Reds are reportedly open to dealing the ex-Dodger, whom they acquired in the offseason. Puig’s a pending free agent, so unless the out-of-contention Reds plan to extend or qualify him, it would make sense to trade the 28-year-old this week. The mercurial Puig got off to a terrible start this year as he began his Cincy tenure, but he has been far better over the past several weeks. In all, Puig owns a .254/.304/.478 line with 22 home runs and 13 steals (18 attempts) across 401 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Puig has continued to serve as an asset in right (3 Defensive Runs Saved, 0.7 Ultimate Zone Rating), per defensive metrics. He’s also reasonably priced, albeit not cheap, with a $9.7MM salary.

Trade Interest In Justin Smoak Escalating

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Trade interest in Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak is “picking up,” tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman connected the Indians to Smoak earlier today, and Nicholson-Smith adds the Rays as a team of interest as well. Several contenders have expressed interest in Smoak, per Nicholson-Smith. Notably, he’s not in the lineup tonight for the Blue Jays.

Toronto has been one of the few clear sellers on the summer market, having already departed with Marcus Stroman and David Phelps in the past 48 hours. The 32-year-old Smoak, a free agent following the 2019 season, is a logical player to deal away, too, even if the return on him doesn’t prove overwhelming. Smoak won’t be a candidate to receive a qualifying offer, so there’s added incentive to take the most appealing option presented between now and tomorrow afternoon’s trade deadline.

The switch-hitting Smoak’s batting average is down this season, but he’s walking at a career-best 16.7 percent clip and once again demonstrating above-average power. In 359 plate appearances, he’s hit .215/.357/.427 — good for a 110 OPS+ and a 108 wRC+ (which is to say he’s been about eight to ten percent better than league average from an offensive standpoint, even after accounting for his hitter-friendly home park). Smoak’s 19.8 percent strikeout rate is actually the lowest of his career, and he’s not popping up at an exorbitant level either. Rather, the key to his diminished average could be a fluky .220 average on balls in play (which checks in well south of his career .267 level).

Smoak is earning a reasonable $8MM salary in 2019 with about $2.71MM of that sum yet to be paid out between now and season’s end. With the Jays dealing away short-term assets, it seems likely that Smoak will be wearing a new uniform this time tomorrow.

Rays Showing Interest In Padres Outfielders

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The Rays are working the phones on multiple fronts, with the evident aim of adding pitching as well as a bat. In that latter pursuit, the team has engaged the padres regarding corner outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link).

It’s not surprising to see those particular names pop up, if only because of the prior rumored Tampa Bay targets. The club has been tied to numerous powerful right-handed hitters, most of whom would represent full or part-time options in the corner outfield. It seems that’s a particular profile of interest.

What’s particularly interesting about this slugging San Diego duo is that it consists of a pair of young and controllable players. That’d presumably increase the price tag, though perhaps there’s also some logic in the Rays going after pieces with long-term as well as short-term value.

There’s obviously a tough balance to be struck here by the Tampa Bay front office. Even as hopes of a division run have melted away, the club has made clear that it wishes to “do everything we can not to take this season for granted and see if there is a way to help this team in a responsible fashion.”

Renfroe and Reyes each possess an abundance of power. They’ve also both put it into play in game action at the MLB level this year. The former has a .238/.297/.563 slash and 29 dingers, the latter a .253/.312/.535 mark and 27 long balls. Both of those lines translate to a 116 wRC+ and suggest equal parts intrigue and concern as to sustainability.

The sluggers each have a little more swing and miss, and a little less plate discipline, than might be preferred. Barring an adjustment, their fortunes will rise and fall on their ability to square up the baseball consistently. That sort of high-power, low-OBP profile hasn’t been favored in recent years, though perhaps that could create a bit of an opportunity for the Rays.

It remains to be seen how aggressively the Padres will market their corner sluggers. While the club has yet to resolve its general outfield crunch, it’s not as if the organization is desperate to clear a path for a can’t-miss prospect.

Closer Market Rumors: Diaz, Vazquez

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The Mets have numerous top trade chips on the market right now, including marquee offseason acquisition Edwin Diaz. The talented young closer remains highly valuable despite his 4.95 ERA, though it’s likewise true that there’s little chance the Mets would be able to recoup what they gave up to get him over the winter. Beyond the fact that Diaz is now just months away from arbitration, the Mets simply paid a hefty fee for Diaz at the outset. In addition to parting with rising prospects Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn, the club took on $64MM in new salary (after netting out the cash and salaries exchanged).

While that’s a particularly painful price in retrospect, the New York organization must now think primarily about what it wants its roster and payroll to look like moving forward. The latest on Diaz and the rest of the closer market:

  • Despite Diaz’s struggles in the earned-run department, there’s “significant” demand for his services, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). At present, the Dodgers, Rays, Braves, and Padres are teams with active interest. Several of those teams have been linked clearly to Diaz of late.
  • While Rosenthal had also listed the Red Sox, who were connected yesterday to Diaz by ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, it seems that possibility has already fizzed. That match “remains unlikely,” Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports on Twitter. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adds Raisel Iglesias of the Reds and Shane Greene of the Tigers as other top relievers unlikely to end up in Boston. (Twitter link.) The Braves, on the other hand, do indeed still seem to be in pursuit of Diaz. Per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, via Twitter, the Mets have continued to examine the Atlanta farm. From the Braves’ side, it seems Diaz is the top target, with starters Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler of ongoing but lesser interest.
  • If there’s a clear alternative to Diaz, it’s ace Pirates reliever Felipe Vazquez. The high-octane lefty has hit another gear in 2019, with 14.1 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 to go with his shiny 1.87 ERA on the season. We’ve seen him connected recently to the Dodgers, but there’s no indication the sides have momentum. Indeed, Rosenthal adds (in the above-linked column) that the Bucs are putting such a high price on Vazquez that he “essentially is not available.” That may be a bargaining ploy to see if a rival comes forward with a monster offer, but it’s certainly understandable that the Pirates aren’t just putting Vazquez up for auction. Rosenthal cites anonymous front office opinion that the Pittsburgh roster doesn’t have enough to compete in the near-term to justify keeping an asset such as Vazquez. That may well be the case, but it doesn’t mean the club should sell him short — particularly after seeing what the M’s were able to pry from the Mets for Diaz last winter.

Trey Mancini Drawing Interest

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Orioles outfielder Trey Mancini hasn’t been a hot name in the run-up to the trade deadline, but MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that he’s coming up in late talks. The Astros, Rangers, and Rays are all said to have interest.

Mancini, 27, will be eligible for arbitration for the first time in the offseason to come. He’s off to an excellent start at the plate, putting a subpar 2018 season in the rearview mirror. Through 434 plate appearances, Mancini is slashing .280/.341/.532. He grabbed the 50th spot on our ranking of the top trade candidates based upon his evident talent and contractual upside.

For the O’s, nothing is bolted to the floor. But the Baltimore club surely isn’t in a rush to trade its best player, particularly since he’s a marketable figure at an organizational low point. Lovely as Camden Yards is standing alone, stars are needed to bring fans in and send merchandise out of the ballpark gates.

The slate of clubs with interest is itself both interesting and telling. It’s clear that Mancini isn’t a classic trade deadline piece, so much as a very good player with a great contract situation who is drawing teams that are interested in him from a talent standpoint. Roster fit and the situation in the standings are to some extent secondary considerations.

For the Astros, adding Mancini would mean putting another big bat into a lineup mix that’s already strewn with them. The priority in Houston is surely pitching. One wonders whether the connection is based upon some scenarios involving multiple other moving pieces.

The Rangers, meanwhile, are all but buried out of contention. But the team is looking to remain competitive and ramp right back up next year. Coming away with Mancini would mean adding a righty slugger to partner up with star Joey Gallo. The Texas org obviously wouldn’t be valuing Mancini for his late-2019 contributions, but for the three years of control thereafter.

It’s also a bit of an opportunistic possibility for the Rays, who have more immediate incentive than the Rangers but less than the Astros. The Tampa Bay club is always searching for value and has been connected to multiple righty outfield bats, so it isn’t surprising to see that they’ve propped open a door on Mancini. With loads of young talent, especially in the infield, it’s possible the Rays could come up with some creative packages in search of a match with their division rivals.

Zack Wheeler Rumors: Astros Increasingly Seen As Favorite

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We just knighted Mets righty Zack Wheeler the top trade deadline candidate in baseball. The results haven’t been there in 2019, but he’s got a power arsenal and is earning less than $6MM on the season. With deadline pressure reaching a breaking point, there ought to be a ton of chatter on him over the next day and a half.

We’ll keep tabs on all the latest right here:

  • The Astros are “working hard” to land Wheeler, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Despite the Houston organization’s stated intention to consider controllable starters, it seems the club has fixed its sights on Wheeler. Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that one rival exec “fully expect[s]” the ’Stros to come away with the righty.
  • Other teams obviously will remain involved until a deal is struck. Last night, Martino cited the Braves, Brewers, Yankeees, Rays, and Athletics as teams with varying levels of ongoing involvement in the Wheeler market. (Twitter links.) That picture could certainly change rapidly, though it stands to reason that each of those clubs will at least want to have a good sense of the price tag as talks work towards a conclusion.
  • As they continue to hold discussions on fellow righty Noah Syndergaard, the Mets “still seem much more likely” to ship out Wheeler, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Frankly, it’s hard to imagine a reasonable scenario where Wheeler isn’t dealt unless the offers are so low that the Mets would rather hang onto him and make him a qualifying offer at season’s end. That’s not a terrible back-up plan, but it makes much more sense to take the bird in hand at the deadline given the evident levels of interest. (As for the concept of a Wheeler extension, that seems far too speculative to drive the team’s deadline strategy.)

Rays Reportedly Backing Off Domingo Santana

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Although Mariners outfielder Domingo Santana has come up as a potential target for the Rays, it doesn’t look as if the two teams will reach a deal for the slugger. Tampa Bay has “cooled on” Santana, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. Divish cites the elbow problems that have bothered Santana over the past few weeks as a potential reason the Rays have backed off their pursuit. The 26-year-old has endured his worst month of the season, perhaps on account of his elbow, having batted .246/.310/.354 with 25 strikeouts in 71 plate appearances. July has marred Santana’s offensive numbers to an extent, though he has still slashed a solid .273/.342/.475 with 20 home runs in 446 plate appearances.

Rays "Doing Work" On Edwin Diaz

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  • The Rays may have faded in the AL East, but they’re not planning to go quietly. Olney tweets that the club is “doing work” on Mets reliever Edwin Diaz, making for an intriguing (if vague) connection. Beyond the obvious appeal of a high-charged young hurler who has shown a past ability to dominate like few others, there are a few other reasons to like this match. Diaz’s run of poor results will limit his arbitration earning power, boosting his appeal to the payroll-conscious Rays. And as Mike Petriello of MLB.com explains, there are plenty of reasons to believe that Diaz is every bit as good as ever before.

Inside The Rays/Indians Trade

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  • Sunday’s three-player trade between the Rays and Indians was likely inspired by both a 40-man roster crunch, and July 31 being the new absolute trade deadline this season, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes (Twitter links).  Both Hunter Wood and Christian Arroyo were out of options next season, plus the Rays needed to create at least one 40-man roster opening for the newly-acquired Eric Sogard plus any other players they could add in trades before the deadline.  Plus, Tyler Glasnow and Anthony Banda need 40-man spots when they’re activated off the 60-day injured list.  In past years, the Rays could have dealt with Glasnow and Banda’s situations in August when they were ready to be activated, but this year, they felt the need to act early to create roster space rather than designate the likes of Wood or Arroyo in August and lose them for nothing on a waiver claim.  It will be interesting to see if we get more deals of this ilk over the next few days, as teams look to do some roster clearance now since their options are so limited after July 31.
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