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Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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After reaching the ALDS last season, the Rays had their usual busy offseason in search of the roster mix that could bring them into championship contention.

Major League Signings

  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, 3B/OF: Two years, $12MM (plus $2.4MM in posting/release fees to Yokohama DeNA BayStars)
  • Total spend: $14.4MM

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

After finishing second among Tampa Bay position players with a 3.3 fWAR in 2019, Tommy Pham found himself heading out of town, sent to the Padres as part of a four-player deal.  The minor leaguers exchanged in that deal — highly-touted infielder Xavier Edwards and a potential two-way threat in Jake Cronenworth — are certainly noteworthy, with the Rays getting the slightly longer-term prospect in Edwards while Cronenworth could help San Diego as early as this season.  But, looking at just the big-league return in the trade, the Rays sent an older, pricier, but more established hitter in Pham to the Padres for the powerful but less-polished young slugger in Hunter Renfroe.

With 70 homers over 1450 career plate appearances, we know Renfroe can mash, though his lifetime batting average (.235) and OBP (.294) leave much to be desired.  2019 saw Renfroe enjoy something of a breakout in the first half of the season before being hampered by injuries, though even Renfroe’s numbers prior to the All-Star break (.252/.308/.613 with 27 homers in 289 PA) showed only modest improvement in the average and on-base categories.

Nonetheless, Renfroe is almost four full years younger than Pham, brings more defensive versatility as an outfielder who can be deployed in center field in a pinch, and has a much lower price tag.  Renfroe is controlled through the 2023 season as a Super Two player, and is set to earn $3.3MM in 2020, his first arbitration-eligible year.  By contrast, Pham will earn $7.9MM in 2020, which is the second of three arb years.

In short, the deal almost seems like a prototypical Rays move — they got a bit younger, saved some money, and acquired a player in Renfroe who could offer enough untapped potential to be just as good or better than Pham in 2020 (plus, there’s also the lingering injury question of Pham’s elbow).  Flexibility and depth continue to be paramount in Tampa’s approach to roster building, as the Rays can wield a lineup that offers a lot of different looks, and is stocked with players who could be moved around to different positions based on circumstances.

Consider the Rays’ major free agent signing of the winter, as they landed Japanese slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo after a focused recruitment process that convinced Tsutsugo to reject more expensive offers for Tampa Bay’s two-year, $12MM contract.  Tsutsugo is a bit of a defensive question mark as a first baseman or left fielder, yet the Rays are planning to give Tsutsugo a look at third base; a position he hasn’t played since 2014.

It’s safe to assume that Yandy Diaz will end up getting the majority of playing time at third base, but if Tsutsugo can step in at the hot corner even once in a while to spell Diaz against a tough righty starter, that opens up a spot in the lineup for a left-handed hitting Joey Wendle, or perhaps another lefty bat in Nate Lowe (should Lowe make the Opening Day roster).  Even if the Tsutsugo/third base experiment doesn’t work out, Wendle can play third base himself, and Tsutsugo could perhaps then just be slotted into the first base/DH mix.

Speaking of first base/DH candidates, the Rays added another prominent name to that list in acquiring Jose Martinez from the Cardinals.  Rumors have swirled about the Rays’ interest in Martinez for well over a year, and the lefty-crushing slugger will now be the primary right-handed hitting first base/DH option, alongside the lefty-swinging Tsutsugo, Lowe, and Ji-Man Choi.  While Martinez can play first base or a corner outfield spot, he is probably the rare Rays pickup who wasn’t targeted for his roster flexibility, due to Martinez’s longstanding defensive struggles.

Between Martinez, Tsutsugo, and Renfroe, the Rays hope they can replace or top the 57 home runs that departed last year’s lineup — Pham, Avisail Garcia (who signed with the Brewers) and Travis d’Arnaud (who signed with the Braves).  The long ball wasn’t a big weapon for Tampa Bay in 2019, as their 217 homers ranked them 21st of the 30 teams, but that number could rise thanks to both the new faces and healthier seasons from the likes of Diaz, Wendle, and Brandon Lowe.

With Guillermo Heredia non-tendered and Garcia leaving in free agency, the Rays looked at such free agents as Yasiel Puig and Shogo Akiyama as options in the outfield.  Instead, Tampa Bay bolstered its outfield depth by adding Randy Arozarena as part of the trade with the Cardinals, while also acquiring Manuel Margot in another trade with the Padres.  It was only a few years ago that Margot was a consensus top-25 prospect in all of baseball, and while he has shown to be an excellent defender at the MLB level, his bat (84 wRC+, 87 OPS+) has yet to emerge.  Since Margot is still only 25, it isn’t out of the question that he could be a late bloomer.

The Rays paid a pretty substantial price for Margot, sending their 2019 saves leader in Emilio Pagan westward.  Pagan’s lone season in Tampa Bay was a very impressive one, as he recorded 20 saves while posting a 2.31 ERA, 7.38 K/BB rate, and 12.3 K/9 over 70 innings.  Between Pagan, Austin Pruitt (dealt to the Astros), Jose De Leon, and Matthew Liberatore, the Rays did more subtracting than adding to their pitching, though Tampa is arguably one of the few teams deep enough in pitching options to handle dealing from a surplus.

To this end, the Rays will count on their collection of arms to manage the bullpen, with a closing committee of Diego Castillo, Nick Anderson, Jose Alvarado, and possibly others to handle save situations.  As for the rotation, the Rays will can always fall back on using an opener if necessary, but the team looks ready to enter the season with a rotation of five proper starting pitchers: Charlie Morton, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos, and likely one of Ryan Yarbrough or Brendan McKay.  There is some uncertainty within that group given Glasnow’s injury-riddled 2019 and Snell’s nagging elbow problems, though both are expected to be ready by the time the 2020 season eventually gets underway.

As with basically any Rays player that makes a substantial salary, there was some speculation that Morton could be a trade chip now or in the near future, should Tampa Bay fall out of the pennant race.  Morton is being paid $15MM in 2020 and (if he doesn’t retire) he has a vesting option on his services for 2021 that will be worth another $15MM if he spends less than 30 days on the injured list this season.  The 36-year-old is still pitching at a very high level, and it makes sense why the Rays seemingly didn’t test the market for him this offseason, as Morton is even more valuable considering the lingering health questions surrounding Snell and Glasnow.

Pham ended up being the one larger salary moved off Tampa’s books, which was probably the more logical move than trading Morton since good outfield help is somewhat easier to find than a front-of-the-rotation pitcher.  GM Erik Neander faces a difficult challenge in trying to manage a small budget while also trying to build a contender, and as such Rays trades are rarely as simple as a one-for-one swap.  Getting young talent back in deals is of critical importance, whether it’s landing Edwards from San Diego, a higher Competitive Balance Round draft pick from St. Louis, or acquiring catching prospect Logan Driscoll from the Padres in the Pagan deal.  Driscoll was the Padres’ second-round pick in the 2019 draft, and down the road he could develop into yet another “catcher of the future” candidate for a Rays franchise that has long looked for stability behind the plate.

After d’Arnaud signed with Atlanta, the Rays will head into 2020 with Mike Zunino as their starting catcher.  Zunino’s struggles led to d’Arnaud taking over the regular job last season, leaving the Rays hoping that Zunino’s dreadful year was just an aberration.  A couple of veteran backstops in Kevan Smith and Chris Herrmann are in camp on minor league deals, and Michael Perez is in the in-house contender for the backup position.  Unless Zunino gets on track during the season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rays make catching a priority before the trade deadline.

Between dealing Pham, the free agent departures, and non-tendering players like Heredia, Jesus Aguilar, and Matt Duffy, the Rays opened up enough money to do some offseason spending without much changing their financial outlook.  As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Rays have a projected Opening Day payroll of just under $67.6MM, which represents an increase of barely $150K over their season-ending 40-man roster payroll.

The Rays’ spending habits continue to draw attention from the MLBPA, whose grievance against the team’s use of revenue-sharing funds (in essence, wondering why those funds aren’t being spent on player salaries) was expanded to cover both the 2017-18 and 2018-19 offseasons.  Grievance notwithstanding, it doesn’t appear as if much will change for the Rays on the payroll front unless they are finally able to land their long-desired new ballpark in Tampa or St. Petersburg…or perhaps one new stadium in the Tampa/St. Pete area and another in Montreal, should the organization’s unusual split-city concept comes to fruition.

2020 Season Outlook

If it’s possible for a team to quietly win 96 games, the Rays did just that in 2019, finishing just a game short of the highest win total in franchise history.  Nothing Tampa Bay did this winter remotely came close to the Yankees’ $324MM splash on Gerrit Cole, and while New York’s on-paper roster seems far more star-studded than the Rays’ collection, Tampa finished only seven games out of the AL East lead last season.  While the Yankees famously won 103 games despite a myriad of injuries last year, the Rays also achieved their success despite losing a number of key players for long stretches of time.

The American League will be more competitive on the whole in 2020, so even capturing another wild card would represent a nice achievement for the Rays.  This could be particularly true since two ex-Rays executives are now running other AL rivals — the Red Sox hired former Rays senior VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom as their new chief baseball officer, while the Astros hired former Rays VP of baseball operations James Click as their new GM in February, after Houston’s firing of Jeff Luhnow as a result of the sign-stealing scandal.

With other organizations trying to ape the Rays’ track record of quality acquisitions at low-cost prices, it leaves Neander and the remaining front office members with more of a challenge in keeping things afloat in Tampa Bay, especially with a roster that could be on the brink of a special season.  It will be interesting to see how the Rays manage the assets of arguably the league’s best farm system in making further additions to this team in July, whether a major trade could take place, or whether the front office will continue this offseason’s pattern of somewhat quieter moves.

How would you grade the Rays’ offseason?  (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Rays' offseason?
B 50.32% (1,270 votes)
A 22.15% (559 votes)
C 21.55% (544 votes)
D 3.53% (89 votes)
F 2.46% (62 votes)
Total Votes: 2,524

Contract Renewals: Rays, Devers, Olson

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In the wake of a couple of newsworthy pre-arbitration contract renewals over the weekend, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd took to YouTube on Monday to offer a detailed explanation of the process. If you’re interested in checking it out, click the video below:

Here are the some of latest and most notable team-imposed pre-arb salaries for 2020:

  • The Rays have renewed the contracts of outfielder Austin Meadows and left-hander Ryan Yarbrough, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Meadows will earn $578,900, and Yarbrough will get $563,400. In Meadows’ case, it’s possible he and the Rays will work out a long-term arrangement in the near future. There’s interest from both sides in making that happen, after the 24-year-old broke out in 2019 with a .291/.364/.558 line, 33 home runs and 12 steals. For now, Meadows still has five years of team control left; he’s not slated to even reach arbitration until after the 2021 season. Yarbrough has the same amount of control left, but the Super Two player is scheduled for his first trip through arbitration next winter. The 28-year-old was a rather effective member of the Rays’ pitching staff from 2018-19.
  • The Red Sox have renewed third baseman Rafael Devers for $692,500, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe tweets. This will be the last pre-arb year for Devers, who’s eligible to reach arbitration for the first of three potential times next offseason. It stands to reason the Red Sox will try to keep Devers around for the long haul, considering his tremendous output last year, but the two parties haven’t engaged in extension talks yet.
  • The Athletics have renewed first baseman Matt Olson on a $603,500 salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Oakland was interested in extending Olson as of last season, but there haven’t been any rumblings about his long-term future since June. If nothing changes by next winter, the big-hitting Olson will head to arbitration for the first of three possible trips.

Rays Have Opened Extension Talks With Glasnow, Meadows

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The Rays have approached Tyler Glasnow’s representatives at Wasserman and Austin Meadows’ representatives at Excel Sports about potential long-term deals for the pair of burgeoning stars, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

There’s no indication that talks with either party have progressed beyond the preliminary stage, but the reaction from the pair is notable. Both say they’re open to such an arrangement, with Meadows saying he “definitely would be open to something like that” but Glasnow taking a bit more reserved approach. While the right-hander acknowledged that he’d listen to offers, he also made clear that he doesn’t want to “sell [himself] short” and that he has “no problem going year-to-year.”

Looking at the two as separate cases, Glasnow’s situation is a bit trickier. The right-hander was utterly dominant when healthy in 2019, pitching to a 1.78 ERA with averages of 11.3 strikeouts, 2.1 walks and 0.59 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched. Unfortunately for both him and the Rays, a forearm strain limited the towering righty to 60 2/3 innings.

Glasnow was one of the game’s premier pitching prospects for years and, since being traded to the Rays, has broken out with 116 2/3 innings of 2.94 ERA ball and nearly 11 punchouts per nine frames. He doesn’t have a long track record in the Majors, though, and his platform season was noticeably light on workload. Throw in that he’s a Super Two player who’s already set to earn $2.05MM in 2020, and it becomes a bit muddier when trying to determine what the two sides might deem a fair price point.

For context, Glasnow’s own teammate, Blake Snell, holds the record for largest contract ever signed by a pitcher with between two and three years of big league service time. Snell signed a five-year, $50MM contract just last spring, but he wasn’t a Super Two player at the time of that agreement. He was, however, fresh off a Cy Young win, which makes his case perhaps something of an outlier. The second-largest deal ever inked by a two-plus pitcher was German Marquez, who landed a five-year, $43MM deal (also last winter). Marquez wasn’t a Super Two player but tossed thrice as many innings as Glasnow in his platform season. Luis Severino was a Super Two with two-plus years of service time when he signed a four-year, $40MM deal with a club option for a fifth season in February 2019, but he was projected to earn more than double the $2.05MM to which Glasnow agreed for the upcoming season (by virtue of his 2017-18 workload).

The unique nature of Glasnow’s situation and his stated willingness to go year-to-year might make an agreement tough to hammer out. A healthy and productive season out of the righty, after all, would lead to a substantial raise. Mike Foltynewicz played out the 2018 season as a Super Two player on a $2.2MM salary and, after 183 innings of 2.85 ERA ball, saw a 149 percent raise to $5.475MM for the 2019 campaign. Even with some regression in terms of his ERA, Glasnow could be looking at similar financial upside if he can rack up the innings. There’s also virtually no circumstance in which he’d be in for a pay cut in 2021, so he’s looking at a minimum of $4.1MM over the next two seasons as it is. At the very least, he has a bit of security on his side now that he’s into arbitration.

Meadows is in a different situation. The 24-year-old has a year and 74 days of service, which places him two full seasons away from reaching arbitration. Meadows slashed .291/.364/.558 with 33 home runs, 29 doubles, seven triples and 12 steals in 591 plate appearances during a breakout 2019 campaign with the Rays. In doing so, he cemented himself as a fixture in the lineup for the foreseeable future. The Rays’ interest in keeping him cost-controlled is plenty sensible, as Tampa Bay has routinely had to move on from its players as their salaries escalate in arbitration (Tommy Pham and Corey Dickerson are recent examples in the outfield). That looks particularly likely to be the case with Meadows iff he goes year-to-year, as his power numbers would play quite well when he does reach arbitration in the 2021-22 offseason.

Looking for some historical comps, Christian Yelich’s first extension — seven years and $49.57MM — is the largest ever signed by a player with between and two years of service. Ronald Acuna Jr. secured a $100MM payday with less than a year of service time, although that deal was an outlier and required him surrendering four would-be free-agent seasons in the process. Something closer to the first Yelich extension is a likelier base point, but that deal is five years old, so Meadows’ camp could aim to set a new precedent.

In the event that one or both do put pen to paper, the Rays’ 2020 payroll figures to be largely unaffected. Tampa Bay is set to again field one of the lowest-cost (but most-talented) rosters in baseball, with a projected Opening Day mark of just under $71MM. The Rays have about $34MM in guaranteed money on the books both in 2021 and in 2022, though, and that number dips to $24MM by the 2023 season. Fitting contract extensions for Meadows and/or Glasnow into the long-term budget shouldn’t be much of a reach — if the involved parties can years and dollars.

Quick Hits: COVID-19, Red Sox, Catching, Rays, Meadows Extension Talks

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Commissioner Rob Manfred has a conference call planned with MLB owners on Monday to discuss the coronavirus, but all indications point to the season opening as planned, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich. MLB has been in contact with the CDC, and each team has a specified point person in charge of their specific situations. Locker room protocol across the North American sports landscape has been adjusted to help protect players from COVID-19, and fan access to players has also been limited as a precaution (though some players have prepared pre-signed autographs for fans at spring games). In Italy, all sporting events are planned to move forward without fans present, and the NBA has begun preparations for such a circumstance as well. As of right now, MLB plans to have fans present as the regular season kicks off at the end of March, but a lot can obviously change over the next three weeks.

  • In non-virus news, catchers around the league are giving umpires a better view to call balls and strikes by receiving from a knee instead of the traditional crouch, per Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. Christian Vazquez employed the stance for the Red Sox some last year, and the returns were good. He finished fifth in statcast’s Runs from Extra Strikes metric, trailing only Roberto Perez, Yasmani Grandal, Tyler Flowers and Austin Hedges, the latter of whom led the field by a substantial margin. Red Sox interim manager Ron Roenicke notes that receiving from a knee makes it tougher to block pitches, but the premium placed on stealing strikes makes the tradeoff worth it on the whole. 
  • In contract news, the Rays and Austin Meadows have begun preliminary discussions about a potential extension, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Both sides are open to the possibility, though talks have not yet reached the exchange-of-numbers stage. After a monster 2019, Meadows won co-MVP honors for the team and proved himself a key offensive cog moving forward. Meadows slashed .291/.364/.558 with 33 home runs and 89 RBIs (142 wRC+) in 2019. Locking up the soon-to-be 25-year-old would certainly be a boon for an organization ever-mindful of its financial limitations.

Injury Notes: Snell, Carrasco, Mondesi, Dodgers

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We’ll round up the latest health news from around MLB on this Sunday morning.

  • Blake Snell will return to spring training action Monday, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. A bullpen session Friday went according to plan, Topkin adds, so the Rays feel comfortable allowing the 2018 AL Cy Young winner to begin building up innings in-game. It’s possible Snell won’t quite be ready for Opening Day, but it seems the cortisone shot he received in his throwing elbow last week isn’t indicative of any long-term issue.
  • Indians’ right-hander Carlos Carrasco has been slowed recently by “mild elbow inflammation,” tweets MLB.com’s Mandy Bell. At this point, the club doesn’t consider the issue a great concern, Bell adds. A full, healthy season from Carrasco would certainly be a plus for Cleveland, who has traded away Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber in the past calendar year and saw Mike Clevinger go down for the season’s first month-plus with a partial meniscus tear.
  • Royals’ shortstop Adalberto Mondesi has yet to make his spring training debut thanks to the shoulder surgery he underwent last September. His rehab was “paused” recently due to some soreness, manager Mike Matheny told reporters (via Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com), but a visit Friday with his surgeon confirmed Mondesi is on schedule in his recovery. Kansas City continues to hold out hope the talented 24-year-old will be able to return by Opening Day.
  • Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register has the latest on a few Dodgers’ health situations. Mookie Betts has missed a few games of action with food poisoning, but he could return to the lineup Monday, manager Dave Roberts tells Plunkett. Meanwhile, Joc Pederson will make his first spring training start in minor-league camp today as he recovers from a hip injury, while right-hander Jimmy Nelson is set for a bullpen session. Nelson was briefly shut down with groin discomfort two weeks ago.

MLBPA Has Expanded Grievance Against Marlins, Rays

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It was reported yesterday that the Major League Baseball Players Association has expanded its grievance proceeding against the Pirates. The MLBPA has also done so with respect to the Marlins and Rays, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald (via Twitter).

Originally, the union attacked those three teams as well as the Athletics for their allocation of revenue-sharing funds during the 2017-18 transactional period. The new claims presumably level similar charges with respect to the 2018-19 offseason. It is not specifically known whether the Oakland organization stands accused of further misdeeds.

Revenue sharing provisions are collectively bargained, with recipient teams required to account for their investments. The union’s precise charges and precise requests for relief are not fully known. In essence, it’s not hard to grasp: the MLBPA feels these teams aren’t spending enough on MLB player salaries.

The Marlins significantly drew down their Opening Day payroll level in each of the past two seasons. They peaked at $115MM and change in 2017, then dropped to under $100MM and then to about $72MM in the 2019 campaign. The Miami organization spent just $4.5MM on free agents last winter while shedding some larger salaries via trade.

Of course, it was widely anticipated that the Marlins were heading for another rough season. Since the sale of the organization, it has been fully enmeshed in a rebuilding effort. The club did boost its spending in the just-completed offseason, not that doing so speaks to its actions in prior winters.

The situation is a bit different for the Rays, who’ve compiled consecutive 90-game winning rosters. They’ve done so with minimal Opening Day payroll commitments — just $76MM in 2018 and $60MM in 2019 — though they added salary throughout both seasons. While their year-over-year payroll dropped, the Rays also did add one big contract last winter when they struck a two-year, $30MM deal with Charlie Morton.

8 AL East Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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After taking a look at eight American League East hitters hoping to bounce back from down seasons in 2020, we’ll do the same here with an octet of the division’s pitchers…

Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Red Sox:

The flamethrowing Eovaldi was one of Boston’s many heroes during its World Series run in 2018, convincing the team to re-sign him to a four-year, $68MM contract thereafter. But the first year of the pact was a disaster for both sides, as Eovaldi missed significant time with elbow problems and didn’t perform well when he was able to pitch. The 30-year-old wound up with career-worst numbers in ERA (5.99), FIP (5.90) and BB/9 (4.66), thereby offsetting a personal-high K/9 of 9.31. There’s optimism he’ll rebound this year, which would be a boon for a Red Sox team that just traded David Price and has seen elbow issues weigh down Chris Sale this spring.

Chris Sale, LHP, Red Sox:

Speaking of Sale, the longtime ace simply didn’t deliver the type of results we had grown accustomed to seeing last season. The 30-year-old was still awfully good, notching 13.32 K/9 and 2.26 BB/9, but turned in a bloated ERA (4.40) and FIP (3.39) in comparison to prior campaigns. He also saw his mean fastball velocity dip by over a mile an hour from the prior couple years, as he averaged 93.2 mph with the pitch. That’s not what the Red Sox wanted after signing Sale to a five-year, $145MM extension last spring. Considering that deal won’t even take effect until this season, it’ll be all the worse for the Red Sox if his current elbow injury proves to be serious.

Blake Snell, LHP, Rays:

Like Sale, Snell turned in fine numbers last year. However, in terms of bottom-line production, he wasn’t the Cy Young winner we witnessed the previous season, owing in part to elbow troubles that required arthroscopic surgery in late July. Snell ultimately totaled 107 innings of 4.29 ERA/3.32 FIP ball after putting up 1.89 and 2.85 in those respective categories during the prior campaign. There was still plenty to like, however, including 12.36 K/9 against 3.36 BB/9, a fastball that stayed in the 95-96 mph range and swinging-strike rate (17.7) that climbed more than 2.5 percent from his superb 2018 effort. Once again, though, there are some health questions in play. Snell may miss the start of the regular season after undergoing a cortisone shot in his elbow last week.

Jose Alvarado, LHP, Rays:

He was somewhat quietly among the elite relievers in baseball in 2018, but last year didn’t go nearly as well for Alvarado. The 24-year-old did average a whopping 98.2 mph on his fastball and strike out 11.7 batters per nine, though an untenable walk rate (8.1 BB/9, up almost double from the previous season) led to a 4.80 ERA/4.18 FIP in 30 innings. To be fair to Alvarado, he wasn’t healthy all that often in 2019, missing time with oblique and elbow injuries. He also sat out for a while because of a family matter.

J.A. Happ, LHP, Yankees:

Happ had a career-best stretch with multiple teams from 2015-18, which persuaded the Yankees to re-sign him to a two-year, $34MM contract heading into 2019. The decision doesn’t look great so far, though, as Happ stumbled to a 4.91 ERA/5.22 FIP in 161 2/3 innings last season. Along the way, his strikeouts per nine (7.81) dropped by almost two full batters from the previous season, while his home run-to-fly ball rate (18.3) jumped by about 5 percent. Now, it’s imperative for the Yankees that they get a bounce-back effort from Happ, considering the well-documented hardships they’re suddenly facing in their rotation. And there’s a lot at stake for the 37-year-old Happ, whose $17MM option for 2021 will vest if he accumulates 165 innings or 27 starts this season.

Alex Cobb, RHP, Orioles:

Back and hip injuries limited Cobb to just three starts in 2019 (all in April), the second season of a four-year, $57MM contract that has blown up in Baltimore’s face so far. Cobb had a horrific time in the 12 1/3 innings he did pitch last year, yielding 15 earned runs on 21 hits (including an eye-popping nine homers).

Mychal Givens, RHP, Orioles:

Givens was an oft-rumored trade candidate throughout last season, but the Orioles decided not to sell low on him during a career-worst year. Like many pitchers in 2019, the 29-year-old proved extremely susceptible to the home run, giving them up on 22.8 percent of fly balls en route to a 4.57 ERA/4.50 FIP with eight blown saves in 19 attempts; he also registered a below-average walk rate of 3.71 per nine. On the bright side, though, Givens fanned a career-high 12.29 batters per nine and continued to average better than 95 mph on his fastball. With this being his penultimate year of team control, Givens continues to look like a trade candidate for Baltimore, but the team won’t get a max return if he doesn’t revisit his old form.

Richard Bleier, LHP, Orioles:

Despite a dearth of strikeouts and a lack of velocity, Bleier offered lights-out results as a member of the Yankees’ and Orioles’ bullpens from 2016-18. Last year was more of the same in terms of strikeouts, walks and grounders (4.88 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 59.9 percent GB rate), but the run prevention wasn’t there. Bleier ended up with a horrid 5.37 ERA (with a more encouraging 4.19 FIP) over 55 1/3 innings. While Bleier continued to hold down same-handed hitters, who posted a weak .238 weighted on-base average off him, righties tattooed him for a .410 wOBA. In other words, the average righty hit like the 2019 version of Anthony Rendon against Bleier.

8 AL East Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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In case you missed previous installments in this series, we looked at AL West hitters and pitchers seeking bounce-back seasons in 2020. We’ll now turn our attention to the AL East and eight notable position players looking for better things this year…

Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox:

Benintendi, then a premier prospect, made his debut in 2016. He has been fairly valuable since then, especially in 2018 (.290/.366/.465, 4.4 fWAR), but his production took a tumble last season. Despite a 10 percent jump in hard-hit rate (via FanGraphs), Benintendi managed a so-so .266/.343/.431 line with 13 homers and 10 steals in 615 plate appearances. A 6 percent spike in strikeout rate and a 4 percent jump in swinging-strike rate certainly didn’t help matters. Of course, Benintendi logged similar bottom-line production in 2017, so maybe this is just who he is. But the Red Sox are surely hoping for production along the lines of 2018 (or better than that), especially considering their offense has lost former centerpiece Mookie Betts.

Mike Zunino, C, Rays:

After an up-and-down tenure with the Mariners, the former No. 3 overall pick joined the Rays in a headline-grabbing trade in November 2018. But Year 1 as a Ray couldn’t have gone much worse offensively for Zunino, who batted a miserable .165/.232/.312 with nine home runs and a typically high strikeout percentage (33.9) over 289 plate appearances. Zunino did put up more encouraging Statcast numbers (.271 expected weighted on-base average, compared to a .235 real wOBA), but he didn’t exactly stand out in that regard. If there’s a saving grace, it’s that Zunino performed well behind the plate, throwing out 39 percent of would-be base thieves and finishing near the top of the league in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric. Considering his defensive abilities, Zunino doesn’t have to thrive at the plate to provide value to his team, but he does have to be a lot better than he was last season.

Joey Wendle, INF/OF, Rays:

Wendle’s terrific first season with the Rays in 2018 seemed to fly under the radar, but he wasn’t able to build on it last year. With a .231/.293/.340 line over 263 PA, his OPS plummeted more than 150 points, while his hard-hit percentage fell 5 percent, per FanGraphs. In fairness to Wendle, though, his season got off to a terrible start because of injuries. He suffered a strained left hamstring and a broken right wrist in April.

Jose Martinez, 1B/OF, Rays:

Following an offseason trade, Martinez is a Ray now after he spent the first four seasons of his MLB career in St. Louis. Martinez was typically an outstanding hitter with defensive defects as a Cardinal, but his effectiveness at the plate waned to a significant degree last season. In his final campaign with the Cards, the 31-year-old recorded a .269/.340/.410 line – good for a league-average wRC+ of 101 (down from 127 in ’18) – across 373 PA. Compared to the previous season, his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and strikeout percentage each made noticeable changes for the worse. Nevertheless, the Rays are banking on Martinez’s strong track record winning out in 2020.

Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH, Yankees:

Stanton’s on this list for injury – not performance – reasons. The former NL MVP continued to handle opposing pitchers last year (.288/.403/.492), but he took just 72 trips to the plate on account of various injuries. If healthy, there’s not much doubt Stanton will hit in 2020. Problem is that he’s dealing with yet another injury – a Grade 1 right calf strain – that could shelve him for the start of the season.

Miguel Andujar, 3B, Yankees:

Andujar joined Stanton as one of the many Yankees whom injuries cut down in 2019. Shoulder troubles held the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up to 12 games in his sophomore season, during which Gio Urshela usurped his starting job at third base. The 25-year-old Andujar now figures to see time at third, first, outfield and DH, but considering his limitations as a fielder, his value will be tied to his bat. If Andujar can return to being the type of offensive player he was two years ago, when he slashed .297/.328/.527 with 76 extra-base hits in 606 PA, it’ll be a boon for the Yankees.

Travis Shaw, 1B/3B, Blue Jays:

Shaw combined for 7.1 fWAR with the Brewers from 2017-18, but they non-tendered him after last season, leading him to take a one-year, $4MM offer from the Blue Jays. Despite his recent success, it was understandable that the Brewers bailed on Shaw, who endured an abysmal 2019. A 30-home run hitter in his two best campaigns, the 29-year-old totaled only seven in 270 PA last season and batted .157/.281/.270. He struck out 33 percent of the time along the way, representing nearly a 15 percent increase from the previous year, and saw his ISO drop more than 100 points. If you’re looking for at least a couple reasons for hope, Statcast indicates that the average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage Shaw recorded in 2019 weren’t much different than in previous years.

Randal Grichuk, OF, Blue Jays:

The Blue Jays showed their faith in Grichuk when they extended him on a four-year, $47MM guarantee last April, but they received little bang for their buck in 2019. Although he did mash 31 homers, Grichuk concluded with a below-average .232/.280/.457 line in 628 PA. At this point, it’s probably fair to expect inconsistency from the OBP-challenged Grichuk, who has thrice been a two- to three-WAR player but has also put up a couple disappointing seasons (including last year) since he debuted in 2014.

Quick Hits: Snell, Nationals, Cubs

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Rays left-hander Blake Snell, the recipient of a cortisone shot in his elbow last week, threw 20 fastballs on flat ground Tuesday and came out of it “fine,” according to manager Kevin Cash (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Snell’s slated to continue working back this week, but even if things go well, it does seem the former Cy Young winner will miss at least the opening week of the regular season, Topkin suggests. Snell’s elbow issues date back to last season, as he underwent an arthroscopic procedure in late July that shelved him for almost two months.

  • Nationals outfielder Adam Eaton left the team’s game after the first inning Tuesday with a tweaked left hamstring, manager Dave Martinez told Sam Fortier of the Washington Post and other reporters. The Nationals don’t regard it as a serious injury, however, as Martinez noted that Eaton likely would have stayed in had it been a regular-season game. Meanwhile, fellow Nats outfielder Victor Robles has been battling a sore left side since last week, but he also seems to be OK. If he gets through the next few days without issue, Robles could return to the team’s lineup during the upcoming weekend, per Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com.
  • It remains unclear how the Cubs will distribute playing time at second base this season, Jordan Bastian of MLB.com writes. Minor league pickup Jason Kipnis has been fighting for the starting job with holdovers Nico Hoerner, David Bote and Daniel Descalso this spring. “It really is a wait and see,” manager David Ross said of the four-way competition. A former All-Star with the Indians, Kipnis possesses the longest track record of the quartet, but his offensive production declined to a noticeable extent from 2017-19, thus stopping him from landing a guaranteed contract.
  • Sticking with the Cubs, flamethrowing pitching prospect Manuel Rodriguez is down for the time being with a Grade 2 biceps strain, Bastian tweets. Rodriguez, 23, hasn’t pitched above the High-A level to this point, but the Cubs are believers in his potential. They added Rodriguez to their 40-man roster last November to prevent another team from grabbing him in the Rule 5 Draft.

Rays Prospect Garrett Whitley Diagnosed With Facial Fractures

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In a scary incident during yesterday’s Grapefruit League contest, Rays propect Garrett Whitley was struck in the face by a foul ball that entered the team’s dugout. He has been diagnosed with “multiple facial fractures,” according to manager Kevin Cash (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, on Twitter).

On the positive side, Whitley was in stable enough condition to spend the night at home rather than in a hospital bed. The 22-year-old outfielder did not lose consciousness at any point. It seems there’s reason to hope that he avoided the most grievous injuries that could conceivably have occurred.

That said, the early indication is that Whitley will be sidelined for a lengthy stretch. He’s slated to visit with a specialist to chart a path back to health. It seems fair to presume that the timeline will not really be evident for some time.

It’s particularly unfortunate timing for Whitley, who originally joined the Tampa Bay organization as the 13th overall pick of the 2015 draft. He was sidelined for all of 2018 due to a shoulder injury, then returned with a solid but unexceptional showing last year at the High-A level.

No doubt Whitley had hoped to make up for lost time in 2020. He’ll first have to get back to full health before tackling the upper minors. Fortunately, he’s still quite youthful. MLBTR extends its best wishes for a full and speedy recovery.

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