Latest On Yasiel Puig, White Sox
The White Sox have reportedly been in talks with free-agent outfielder Yasiel Puig, but the team’s not pushing to sign him, according to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. The two sides don’t have any negotiations taking place at present, Levine reports.
[RELATED: Extension Candidate – Luis Robert]
Puig (or any other high-profile free-agent corner outfielder) looked like a logical match for the White Sox when the offseason began several weeks ago. But the White Sox have since made a few other additions to their lineup that could erase any possibility of landing another starting outfielder. Not only did they acquire corner OFer Nomar Mazara from the Rangers, but they also re-signed first baseman/designated hitter Jose Abreu to a three-year, $50MM contract and just agreed to add another 1B/DH, Edwin Encarnacion, on a one-year, $12MM pact.
With Mazara and Eloy Jimenez around as starting corner outfielders and the Abreu-Encarnacion-Yasmani Grandal trio likely to log plenty of time at DH, there may not be a place for Puig at those spots. That is, unless they can convince the right-handed Puig to work on the short side of a platoon with the lefty-swinging Mazara. It may be far-fetched to expect Puig to settle for that type of role, though.
Puig, who turned 29 this month, has been a regular since he debuted with the Dodgers in 2013. Although Puig went through a disappointing 2019 between Cincinnati and Cleveland, he’s still one of the most established hitters left in a constantly shrinking free-agent market. Puig, Nicholas Castellanos (another rumored White Sox target who may have to look elsewhere), Marcell Ozuna and Corey Dickerson appear to be the top remaining corner outfielders available. Considering the offseason moves the White Sox have already made to better their offense, it seems doubtful anyone from that group will end up in their uniform.
Extension Candidate: Luis Robert
Is there any prospect quite as exciting as a blue chip center fielder? White Sox fans have been eagerly awaiting the arrival of Luis Robert ever since he signed for a $26MM bonus with the team back in May 2017. It was a contract that put the Sox in the proverbial “penalty box” under the old international signing rules, yet the splurge seemed more than worthwhile given the Cuban outfielder’s potential.
Robert’s early progress was hampered by ankle and knee injuries, as well as a thumb sprain. But, with a clean bill of health in 2019, Robert set upon tearing up the minor leagues, hitting a cumulative .328/.376/.624 with 32 homers and 36 stolen bases (out of 47 steal attempts) over 551 plate appearances for three different White Sox affiliates. Robert moved from high-A Winston-Salem to Triple-A Charlotte by season’s end, and though he only has 47 games and 223 PA at the Triple-A level, his .974 OPS in Charlotte left little doubt that the 22-year-old Robert is ready for the majors.
White Sox GM Rick Hahn feels the same way, telling reporters in his end-of-year press conference that the Chicago front office didn’t see center field as an area of need this winter since Robert was slated to handle the position for much of the 2020 season. As to when Robert could make his debut, however, is still up in the air, leaving open the possibility that the Sox could erase all service-time concerns and lock him into the Opening Day outfield by simply inking Robert to an extension.
If this scenario sounds familiar, the White Sox did the exact same thing with another star prospect in Eloy Jimenez last spring. Before even appearing in a Major League game, Jimenez signed a six-year extension worth $43MM in guaranteed money, and could end up earning $75MM over an eight-year span if the contract’s two club options are exercised. The deal far exceeded the previous record extension for a player without any MLB experience, which was a six-year/$24MM guarantee for Scott Kingery from the Phillies prior to the 2018 season. (The Mariners and first base prospect Evan White also agreed to a six-year pact for $24MM in guaranteed salary this past November.)
Robert’s representatives are obviously likely to aim for an extension that will surpass Jimenez’s deal, with the argument that their client offers more future value. Like Jimenez, Robert is a top-five prospect in the eyes of MLB.com and Baseball America — which rank him third on their top-100 prospect rankings — while Baseball Prospectus’ midseason top 50 ranking placed him fourth. While Jimenez’s batting ability is renowned, however, evaluators aren’t certain if he’ll be able to offer much defensively as a corner outfielder, and a move to first base could be necessary even within a few seasons.
In Robert’s case, while there is some question as to whether he’ll stick as a center fielder over the long term, he certainly projects to play up the middle for at least the opening portion of his career, which only adds to his five-tool potential. His 30-30 season across the minors in 2019 indicated his power and speed, and BA and MLB.com rank his throwing arm in the 55-60 range on the 20-80 scouting scale. Robert’s plate discipline is perhaps still a work in progress since he only posted 28 walks against 129 strikeouts last season, though it isn’t unusual for any young player to deal with a lot of swing-and-miss early in his career. MLB.com’s scouting report cites Yoan Moncada as a possible comp, and Moncada significantly reduced his own strikeout problems (a league-high 217 in 2018 to 154 in 2019) with the help of Chicago’s hitting coaches.
Beyond the argument that Robert has the higher ceiling than Jimenez, Robert can also seek the higher deal since he has less incentive to sign an extension. Robert already has that $26MM, remember, so he has already banked one life-changing fortune from his baseball career. (Jimenez, by contrast, had “only” his initial $2.8MM signing bonus from the Cubs.) Unless the White Sox were to offer Robert something far above and beyond Jimenez’s contract, Robert might prefer to just bet on himself and see how his initial season or seasons progress before considering long-term deals.
Without an extension in place, the White Sox could keep Robert in the minors for at least the first few weeks of the season, or at least long enough to ensure that they’ll get a seventh year of control over his services. This would be the latest instance of a team manipulating a top prospect’s service time, and this entire practice has been put under the microscope this offseason now that Kris Bryant‘s service time grievance is currently being examined by an arbitrator. While the arbitrator is widely expected to rule in the Cubs’ favor, a decision reducing Bryant’s remaining team control from two years to one would send many shockwaves around the baseball world, and impact how every club handles promoting its best minor leaguers in the future. As such, the White Sox might wait until the arbitrator’s ruling before fully diving into extension negotiations with Robert.
Beyond Jimenez, Hahn has extended several other promising White Sox players (i.e. Tim Anderson, Adam Eaton, Jose Quintana, Chris Sale) early in their careers over his seven-plus years as general manager. A potential Robert contract could be the most unique and, in fact, most expensive of the bunch, though it would mark the latest aggressive move in a winter that has already seen Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion, Dallas Keuchel, and Gio Gonzalez come to the South Side in free agency. Since the club’s rebuild is clearly over, making Chicago’s center fielder of the future into part of the present could be the next step in the lead-up to the most anticipated White Sox Opening Day in years.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Outfield Rumors: Puig, ChiSox, Castellanos, Giants, Cardinals
The White Sox were known to have continued interest in Nicholas Castellanos, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) adds that Chicago has also been in talks with free agent outfielder Yasiel Puig. Whether the Sox ink either of these two players could now be in doubt, however, in the wake of yesterday’s reported agreement with Edwin Encarnacion. At the very least, Castellanos might be out of consideration since there isn’t be an obvious spot for him to play every day, with Encarnacion and Jose Abreu handling first base/DH duties, Eloy Jimenez in left field, and Nomar Mazara playing at least a part-time role in right field.
It isn’t entirely out of the question that the White Sox could try to flip Mazara to make room for Castellanos, though the likeliest option is that Chicago will see if Mazara can still emerge as a reliable everyday player, or at least try to find a right-handed hitting platoon partner for him. Puig could fit this description, and could potentially still be a target for the Sox on a one-year deal. MLBTR projected such a one-year pact for Puig, and given the lack of news we’ve heard about Puig’s market this offseason, he could be more open to a platoon situation (that could very well evolve into more regular duty if Mazara struggles again). The Marlins are the only team known to have shown interest in Puig this winter.
Some more rumblings on the outfield market…
- While the Giants have been framed as a prime player in the Castellanos market, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports that the team’s portrayal as any sort of frontrunner to win the bidding is “overblown.” The organization does like Castellanos and is more willing to add a youthful free agent on a multi-year deal (Castellanos is still just 27) than a veteran entering his 30s. However, Pavlovic also questions whether the Giants would be willing to put forth a four- or five-year offer for any free agent while in the midst of an increasingly obvious rebuilding effort.
- The Cardinals remain in the market for an outfielder, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explored in his holiday chat with readers this week. Corey Dickerson is at least under consideration, and the team hasn’t bowed out of the Marcell Ozuna bidding yet, either. The Cards’ preference is to have bring in an everyday outfielder as opposed to a platoon bat like Joc Pederson, whom the Dodgers have discussed in trades for a second straight offseason.
White Sox To Sign Edwin Encarnacion
The White Sox have reached an agreement to sign veteran slugger Edwin Encarnacion, according to multiple reports. Dominican reporter Yancen Pujols tweets that the sides have agreed to a one-year, $12MM deal that includes a $1MM signing bonus and $11MM salary, pending a physical. The contract also comes with a $12MM club option, sans buyout, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter).
Encarnacion has been one of the game’s premier hitters since his breakout 2012 season. Though he stepped back a bit in 2018, he rebounded well in the just-completed campaign and proved he’s still capable of top-notch offensive production as he closes in on his 37th birthday.
Through 486 plate appearances over the 2019 season, Encarnacion swatted 34 long balls and slashed a healthy .244/.344/.531. That was about thirty percent above the league-average output at the plate. Encarnacion also spent a fair bit of time in the field, logging 489 innings at first base and grading within range of average with the glove.
For the South Siders, this move represents the latest addition in a busy offseason. Encarnacion will pair with Jose Abreu to form a veteran slugging duo. The latter will presumably take the lion’s share of the action at first base, but both can share the load there to stay fresh.
Whether or not the White Sox will look to keep adding bats isn’t known. The club has been tied to corner outfielders throughout the winter but has already made one move there in acquiring Nomar Mazara. With Abreu and Encarnacion likely to be in the lineup most days, and Eloy Jimenez occupying another corner outfield spot, it’d be surprising to see another high-dollar bat land in Chicago.
That’s all the more true since the White Sox catching situation seems to have some spillover. New addition Yasmani Grandal will likely spend some days at first or in the DH slot to ease his load, which will likely absorb most of the rest days for Encarnacion and Abreu. Backup receiver James McCann now seems all the more expendable, since there won’t be quite as many opportunities to deploy Grandal elsewhere.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Poll: Which Sub-.500 AL Team’s Having The Best Offseason?
The Blue Jays, White Sox, Rangers and Angels each entered the winter amid multiyear playoff droughts and on the heels of sub-.500 showings in 2019. No one from that American League quartet has been a sorrier bunch for longer than the White Sox, owners of an 11-year postseason-less skid. The Blue Jays, Rangers and Angels have at least been relevant more recently than Chicago, but success has still escaped those other clubs for far too long. However, judging by the teams’ actions in the past weeks, they’ve had their fill of serving as doormats in their league. The offseason has gotten off to rollicking starts for all of these franchises, each of which has made more than one significant addition since the floodgates opened in November.
The Angels, they of the pitiful 72-90 record last season, finally look as if they’re in decent position to capitalize on all-world center fielder Mike Trout‘s presence. They added the foremost position player on the market, third baseman Anthony Rendon, on a whopper of a contract worth $245MM over seven years. The rotation-needy Halos have also picked up a pair of starters in Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran. Neither will be confused for an ace, but they should give the team much-needed competent innings at reasonable prices near the back of its rotation. If you’re a glass-half-empty type, though, you may be unimpressed by the Angels’ lack of a front-line starter pickup (though the return of Shohei Ohtani from Tommy John surgery should be a major help) and/or that they haven’t addressed their problems at catcher yet.
The White Sox, also coming off a 72-win season, have been extremely busy in upgrading their lineup. Their offense produced the third-fewest runs in the AL, but that should change for the better in a year with the signing of star catcher Yasmani Grandal (four years, $73MM). The White Sox also helped their cause by retaining first baseman/designated hitter Jose Abreu (three years, $50MM), and they’re clinging to hope that 24-year-old outfielder Nomar Mazara (acquired from Texas) will start living up to his immense promise now that he has changed teams. Even with those three in tow, the White Sox might not be done yet on the offensive end. They’re reportedly at the forefront of the sweepstakes for Edwin Encarnacion, yet another slugging 1B/DH, and remain in the mix for outfielder Nicholas Castellanos – possibly the second-best position player left in free agency.
Of course, upgrading at the plate hasn’t been Chicago’s sole focus. The White Sox made a large splash on the pitching side last weekend when they agreed to sign former Cy Young-winning southpaw Dallas Keuchel for three years and $55.5MM. He followed the much more modestly priced Gio Gonzalez as the second accomplished lefty the team signed for its rotation. With those two, ace Lucas Giolito, the high-upside Reynaldo Lopez–Dylan Cease–Michael Kopech trio, and (once he returns from Tommy John surgery) Carlos Rodon, the club actually has plenty to look forward to with regards to its starting staff.
The same can be said for the Blue Jays and Rangers, who have each spent the majority of the offseason bettering their rotations. Toronto, a lowly 67-95 last season, just took a four-year, $80MM gamble on ex-Dodger Hyun-Jin Ryu. After offering elite production in his final year as a Dodger, Ryu’s in line to lead a Jays staff that will also consist of fellow new additions Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson, Matt Shoemaker (returning from a torn ACL) and perhaps some combination of ex-Japanese star Shun Yamaguchi (yet another just-signed hurler), Trent Thornton, Jacob Waguespack, Ryan Borucki, Anthony Kay and stud prospect Nate Pearson. Unlike late last season, after the Jays traded two vet starters (Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez) and their rotation was a barren wasteland, possibilities abound.
On the offensive side, the Jays replaced departed first baseman Justin Smoak (now a Brewer) with ex-Brewer Travis Shaw in the corner infield. It’s hard to see that as an upgrade on paper, though, after the woeful 2019 Shaw had. But for one year and $4MM, it’ll look brilliant if Shaw returns anywhere near the 3.0-WAR production he managed from 2017-18.
As for Texas, this offseason looks like a bit of a mixed bag. The Rangers have not added at third base or catcher, two positions that still look iffy, even though they partook in the Rendon derby and have also been part of Josh Donaldson‘s market. On the other hand, their rotation looks far superior to the 2019 group that got very little outside of the Mike Minor–Lance Lynn duo and played a key role in a 78-84 finish. Those two are back, while two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber (acquired from the Indians), Kyle Gibson (three years, $28MM) and Jordan Lyles (two years, $16MM) will round out the quintet. For the first time in a while, it’s fair to say the Rangers’ rotation looks strong one through five.
All of these clubs have been extraordinarily active as they seek ways to move past their longstanding struggles in 2020. In your opinion, though, which has enjoyed the best offseason so far?
(Poll link for app users)
Which sub-.500 AL team's having the best offseason?
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White Sox 55% (13,938)
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Angels 19% (4,765)
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Blue Jays 14% (3,433)
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Rangers 12% (3,130)
Total votes: 25,266
White Sox “Very Serious” Suitors For Edwin Encarnacion
DEC. 23: The White Sox seem to be aggressively going after Encarnacion, as they’re “very serious” in their pursuit and look as if they’re “at the forefront of talks,” Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. However, Heyman notes that it’s doubtful a deal will come together until after the holidays.
DEC. 22: The White Sox are showing interest in free agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score.
The South Siders have already made a couple of high-profile acquisitions this winter, dishing out multi-year contracts to catcher Yasmani Grandal and lefty Dallas Keuchel. They’ve also added Gio Gonzalez and Nomar Mazara in a pair of lower-profile moves. They’ve been one of the most active teams this winter, and there might still be more to come.
While the additions of Gonzalez and Keuchel—along with the presumed return of touted prospect Michael Kopech and the expected progression of Dylan Cease—figure to provide a healthy boost to the starting rotation, the White Sox could certainly stand to improve the lineup, which in 2019 put up the third-fewest runs in the American League. While Grandal is an unquestionable upgrade, he and Mazara alone are surely not enough to vault the offense into the league’s upper division.
Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson are premium talents on the left side of the infield, and they showcased their talent with a pair of breakout seasons in 2019. Top prospects Nick Madrigal and Luis Robert loom as likely solutions to the vacancies at second base and in center field after putting up video-game numbers in the minors.
Between Anderson, Moncada, Madrigal, Mazara, Jimenez, and Robert, the upside of the lineup is undeniable and the best-case outcome is a lineup that goes nine deep, but Sox fans will more likely have to wait a couple years for that reality to actualize. As far as this year is concerned, the volatility of that group equals its potential. With that in mind, the veteran combination of Jose Abreu and Encarnacion looks like as good a pair as any to teach the young guns.
Enter Edwin? Encarnacion, who will play the 2020 season at age 37, is still among the finest designated hitters in baseball and could probably roll out of bed and put up 30 homers and 100 RBI. He would surely serve as a fine anchor for a youthful lineup that seems to lack a “sure thing.” And he won’t cost a fortune. Even if the Sox, after inking Grandal and Keuchel to hefty deals, are nearing their spending limit—Roster Resource estimates their current 2020 payroll at $112MM, compared to $96MM at the end of 2019—Encarnacion is an affordable option; MLBTR projected that he would earn a one-year deal worth $8MM in free agency.
White Sox Reportedly Still Interested In Nicholas Castellanos
The White Sox have already filled a corner outfield spot by acquiring Nomar Mazara in a trade and added some notable salary by inking Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez as free agents. Despite that slate of moves, however, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the ChiSox are still interested in bringing free-agent slugger Nicholas Castellanos into the fold.
Morosi suggests that the White Sox are comfortable with their payroll continuing to grow. He lists the team’s current obligations as close to $100MM, though that seemingly isn’t accounting for pre-arbitration players; Jason Martinez of Roster Resource has the club currently projected at just over $112MM, including Keuchel and Gonzalez — neither of whom has been formally announced by the team.
Regardless, it certainly would seem as though the Sox have the payroll capacity to fit Castellanos into the budget. The White Sox’ previous record for Opening Day payroll came back in 2011 when they approached $128MM, and the team’s clear shift from rebuild to win-now mode has naturally been accompanied by expectations of greater spending. They’ll also see Alex Colome, James McCann and Kelvin Herrera come off the books next season, so there’s ample space down the road as well.
With the Sox, Castellanos, Mazara and Eloy Jimenez could seemingly be rotated through the corner outfield spots and designated hitter in an effort to keep all three fresh. None of the bunch is capable of playing center field, even in a pinch, although top prospect Luis Robert is looming in the upper minors and should get his first look at the big leagues in 2020. With Robert and top second base prospect Nick Madrigal both believed to be on the cusp of MLB promotions, it’s certainly arguable that adding another potent bat to step in at designated hitter is a greater need than adding insurance in center field or at second base.
That said, the White Sox surely aren’t the only ones still vying for Castellanos and arguably don’t have as acute a need as some rival clubs. The Rangers, for instance, have been aggressive in reshaping their pitching staff but haven’t done anything to upgrade their lineup. The Reds have added Mike Moustakas but have reportedly been in the market for an outfielder since, so Castellanos would still seem to fit the bill there as well. Other clubs, including the Giants, D-backs and Cubs have all been linked to Castellanos to varying extents, although the Cubs seemingly aren’t going to spend at anywhere near the level it would take to bring Castellanos back to Wrigley Field.
Notes On Dallas Keuchel, Market Trends
The White Sox continued their active offseason by inking Dallas Keuchel to a three-year deal with a vesting option for a fourth. Let’s check in on some reactions to Chicago’s most recent splash, as well as a look at broader market trends.
- The Sox are still a bit shy of being legitimate contenders, feels ESPN’s David Schoenfield. Between some anticipated regression from Tim Anderson, whose .399 BABIP is not sustainable, and uncertainty among Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal and Nomar Mazara, Chicago’s lineup doesn’t match up with the league’s elite, even if it is rife with upside. In Schoenfield’s estimation, that’s not quite enough to support a rotation that still looks a bit underwhelming. Keuchel and Gio González are reliable but no longer top-of-the-rotation starters, and there’s little in the way of depth beyond those two and ace Lucas Giolito. Skepticism aside, Schoenfield notes there’s little question this will be the most exciting White Sox team in recent memory.
- The Athletic’s James Fegan feels similarly, pointing out that the Sox may not contend until the soon to be 32-year-old Keuchel is firmly on the downside of his career. Nevertheless, Fegan praises the signing as a “declarative moment” for the franchise. Between Keuchel and Yasmani Grandal, the organization is showing “seriousness and urgency about breaking an embarrassing eleven-year playoff drought,” Fegan argues. Keuchel should be a positive in the clubhouse, he feels, and Chicago no doubt needed to add capable arms to a rotation that was the league’s sixth-worst run prevention unit in 2019.
- While the 72-win White Sox have been busy this offseason, playoff teams have actually been the most active in free agency thus far, found Ben Clemens of Fangraphs in a piece which predated the Keuchel signing. 58.6% of free agents worth at least 2 fWAR last season have inked with teams who made the postseason in 2019. (Keuchel’s signing wouldn’t change that figure, as he was worth just 0.8 wins in his abbreviated time with the Braves). If that trend were to hold, it would make for the highest rate of quality free agents flocking to playoff teams in the past twenty years. Grandal, Mike Moustakas and Anthony Rendon are among the notable exceptions. Nevertheless, as Clemens explores more fully, teams looking to defend their postseason berths, not those hoping to unseat recent powerhouses, have been the first to strike in free agency.
MLBTR Poll: Grading The Dallas Keuchel Deal
Dallas Keuchel is the newest member of the White Sox, courtesy of a three-year, $55.5MM deal with a vesting option that could push the final value of the deal to 4/$74MM. At 31 years old, Keuchel can’t be called an upside play, nor is he likely, given recent performance, to repeat the kind of output that saw him earn a Cy Young award back in 2015. But, in committing multiple years and an $18.5MM AAV to the lefty, the White Sox seemed to, for the moment, answer an age-old question: just what is the value of “pretty good”, anyway?
For front offices in recent offseasons, “pretty good” has seemed to be a non-starter. When Keuchel was on the market just last winter, more than a few observers offered opinions on why the lefty struggled to find a long-term deal: there was the dip in velocity; the mid-3.00 FIPs; a resounding lack of strikeout oomph. Few argued that Keuchel was an incompetent pitcher, but words like “impact”, “upside”, and “premier” were not what one would have ascribed to him. A year later, debate will likely still follow his receipt of a deal that, if vested, will be within throwing distance of a $100MM.
Then again, if the case of Dallas Keuchel and his recent forays into the open market say anything, the commentary may be more about the current qualifying offer system than anything else. Sure, one could argue that the prorated, one-year, $13MM deal he signed with the Braves last year was of the “prove it” variety— a chance to show that downward trends in velocity and underlying metrics wouldn’t threaten his bottom-line results. But did Keuchel really prove that in 2019?
Across 112.2 innings with Atlanta, Keuchel basically pitched to career averages. His 3.72 ERA (3.67 career ERA), 7.27 K/9 (7.16 career K/9), and 60.1% GB rate (58.9% career GB rate) in 2019 were all in keeping with his broader body of work, if not slightly better. Meanwhile, he continued to show diminished velocity (88.3 mean mph in 2019) and his 4.72 FIP would tell you he was somewhat benefitted by the defense playing behind him in Atlanta—leaving some remaining question as to whether his performance is sustainable. Basically, Keuchel is the same guy who entered last offseason in search of a long-term deal—except one year older, and, perhaps more critically, free of a QO. For those inclined to criticize this deal as an overpay based on what the lefty received last offseason, it would pay to bear that in mind.
Within the context of this offseason, Keuchel checks in comfortably below what Madison Bumgarner received from Arizona. That five-year, $85MM was slightly lighter in terms of AAV, although that was likely a secondary consideration with respect to the opportunity to maximize guaranteed dollars—plus, we know Bumgarner was rather adamant about ending up in Arizona and may have left richer offers on the table. Meanwhile, it trumps what Kyle Gibson earned, and is miles above the one-year, $9MM guarantee that Julio Teheran—another player comfortably within the hall of pretty good—received from Los Angeles. This may not register as brilliant analysis, but, for the moment, Keuchel’s deal seems to occupy its own little window in the winter of 2019-2020.
For a relatively recent precedent, we might look, perhaps a bit ironically, to the four-year, $67.5MM contract Nathan Eovaldi drew from the Red Sox in the very same offseason that saw Keuchel left out in the cold. Eovaldi was likely able to earn that sum because of his relative youth, postseason performance, and, of course, premier amounts of impact/upside. Keuchel was lacking in a few of those departments last offseason, but, then again, he offered a few things Eovaldi did not: a broad track record of stability, numerous 30-start seasons, and a sinker-based repertoire that may prove more immune to season-over-season vagaries. He may lack Eovaldi’s horizon, but he offers a “pretty good” floor. That Keuchel should ultimately line up alongside Eovaldi in terms of AAV is perhaps a fitting commentary on his value.
So, what say you? Is this an overpay for veteran stability or a reasonable investment in the market’s mid-point? Just what is the value of pretty good, anyway? (Poll link for app users)
White Sox To Sign Gio Gonzalez
DECEMBER 20: Gonzalez is slated to receive a $5MM guarantee, per James Fegan of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’ll be paid $4.5MM for the coming season, with $1MM in incentives, before the club decides between a $7MM option and $500K buyout.
DECEMBER 19: The White Sox are in agreement with left-hander Gio Gonzalez, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. Reporter Robert Murray (Twitter link) was the first to break the news that Gonzalez and the Sox were nearing a contract. Gonzalez is represented by CAA Sports.
Gonzalez represents Chicago’s first major pitching acquisition of the offseason, after the Sox were widely expected to target rotation help. While the White Sox have thus far been linked to several big name hurlers on the free agent and trade fronts, the 34-year-old Gonzalez is a less-heralded veteran who still offers some significant upside to the 2020 staff.
Gonzalez was actually drafted by the White Sox (38th overall) back in 2004 but never played for the team, as he was sent to the Phillies as a player to be named later in the November 2005 deal that brought Jim Thome to the Windy City. Over 1901 1/3 career innings with the A’s, Nationals, and Brewers, Gonzalez has established himself as a usually-durable starter who can miss bats (8.6 K/9), limit free passes (3.8 BB/9), keep the ball on the ground (47.1% grounder rate), and limit home run damage (0.8 HR/9).
Gonzalez came close to matching all of these career numbers in 2019, and his 3.50 ERA over 87 1/3 innings with Milwaukee also fell near his 3.68 career ERA. The big outlier, however, was the lack of innings, as Gonzalez spent almost two months on the injured list due to a dead arm. The southpaw already got off to an abbreviated start to the 2019 campaign since he didn’t sign until March 19 (a minor league deal with the Yankees), and missed much of Spring Training rather than going through a normal ramp-up process to Opening Day.
With a full offseason to prepare, Gonzalez could very well return to his normal self next year, which would be a nice boost to a young White Sox rotation. Ace Lucas Giolito is the only projected 2020 rotation member coming off a quality season, as Dylan Cease and Reynaldo Lopez have yet to prove themselves at the MLB level, with Lopez taking a step back after a promising 2018. Gonzalez will now join that trio as Chicago’s starting four, with Dylan Covey, and veteran swingman Ross Detwiler in line to compete for the fifth starter’s job. Michael Kopech is also expected to be in the mix as he returns from undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2018.
It isn’t quite yet the pitching staff that you would expect from a contending team, which is why the White Sox are likely to keep up their efforts to acquire more front-of-the-rotation help. The Sox have been linked to such names as Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel, and David Price in recent days, though came up in efforts to sign Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Jordan Lyles, and Cole Hamels.