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MLBTR Podcast: Mutiny In The MLBPA, Blake Snell Signs With The Giants And The Dylan Cease Trade

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The recent news of the divide in the MLBPA (2:15)
  • The release of J.D. Davis and its impact on the MLBPA situation (8:45)
  • Recent collective bargaining agreement history and its relation to current MLBPA strife (11:30)
  • Giants sign Blake Snell (17:25)
  • Padres acquire Dylan Cease from the White Sox (23:15)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will the Blue Jays make a run at Juan Soto when he hits free agency next year? (33:35)
  • I don’t understand some of the outfielder signings this offseason. How does Hunter Renfroe command $6.5MM when Adam Duvall only gets $3MM? Why would the Twins trade for Manuel Margot when they could have just re-signed Michael A. Taylor? Is there a logical explanation? Or did the Twins and Royals front offices just screw up? (39:45)
  • Do you think that Emmanuel Clase could be traded at the deadline if the Guardians out of it? If so, what do you think he’d fetch at full strength? (43:00)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

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In his first offseason as White Sox GM, Chris Getz made four key trades and a series of small free agent deals as the team enters another rebuilding phase.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $20.8MM
Total spending: $30.05MM

Options Exercised

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Back in October, I was skeptical of White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf saying, “We want to get better as fast as we possibly can,” as part of the justification for hiring internal GM candidate Chris Getz without conducting outside interviews.  It was just too tall of an order for a team that lacked talent and has an owner averse to big free agent contracts.  Based on the moves Getz ended up making in his first offseason as GM, a quick turnaround and 2024 contention were never actually the goals.

Given Liam Hendriks’ August Tommy John surgery, the White Sox chose to decline his $15MM option for 2024, instead triggering a buyout in the same amount that will be paid out over the next decade.  The club also declined their $14MM club option on Tim Anderson, paying a $1MM buyout after finding no takers via trade.  This outcome was unsurprising after Anderson’s abysmal 2023.  The White Sox opted for a cheap defensive-minded veteran replacement at shortstop, signing free agent Paul DeJong in November.  Anderson’s eight-year White Sox career officially ended when he inked a $5MM deal with the Marlins in February.

Though Getz chose to retain manager Pedro Grifol, the Sox did turn over the coaching staff early in the offseason, bringing in Marcus Thames as hitting coach and also adding Grady Sizemore, Drew Butera, Matt Wise, and Jason Bourgeois.  Getz also dropped this memorable line to the media: “I don’t like our team.”

Getz would go on to back up that statement by giving the White Sox a major makeover.  The first strike happened in mid-November, with reliever Aaron Bummer getting shipped to Atlanta for a five-player package.  Taking advantage of Chicago’s lack of depth, four of the five players acquired were on the 40-man roster.  It was a whole lot of players the Braves didn’t need.  The biggest name, Mike Soroka, may have otherwise wound up non-tendered.  But as a $3MM flier for a threadbare White Sox rotation, Soroka fits.  Shuster provides another backend rotation candidate; he’ll start the season at Triple-A.  Given that Bummer was coming off a 6.79 ERA and rebuilding teams don’t have much need for decently-compensated relievers anyway, sending him off for depth pieces was a solid first trade for Getz.

The White Sox’s biggest free agent offseason expenditure came during the Winter Meetings with the signing of Erick Fedde.  The former Nationals top prospect, now 31, rejuvenated his career in South Korea in 2023.  Now he’s a key part of Chicago’s rotation.  The Fedde signing seems like a reasonable play for innings, with a hint of upside for a sub-4.00 ERA season.  This is very much a Rotation of Opportunity in 2024.  Perhaps nothing demonstrates that better than Garrett Crochet getting the Opening Day nod.  As James Fegan noted at Sox Machine, Crochet has 73 big league innings to his name, “it’s his first time back in [the starting pitcher] routine since essentially his sophomore year of college, and Tommy John surgery rehab and a shoulder strain didn’t make 2023 a typical platform year from the bullpen.”

A veteran backup catcher was on Getz’s shopping list this winter, given the inexperience of Korey Lee and Edgar Quero.  He found one in another deal with the Braves, who were serving as a way station for Max Stassi.  The White Sox are only on the hook for $740K of Stassi’s $7MM salary this year, so he makes for a low-risk addition.  Several weeks later, the White Sox inked Martin Maldonado to a one-year deal, possibly stifling an opportunity for Lee or Quero assuming Stassi sticks.  Logically, if one of the young catchers seems ready this summer, one or both veterans will be traded.

In January, news came that Reinsdorf is seeking a new stadium for the White Sox in the South Loop.  Everything so far has been standard: a request for over a billion dollars in public money, promises of an economic boom around a new stadium, questionable reasoning about why the current stadium won’t work, and a vague threat that the team could be moved.  All of this is outside the scope of our Offseason In Review series, but the ballpark situation figures to hang over the team for the foreseeable future.

In February, Getz added Dominic Fletcher in a trade with the Diamondbacks, hopefully filling the Sox’s long-standing right field vacancy in the process.  Fletcher, 26, hit well in limited action as a rookie with Arizona last year.  Coming into the 2023 season, Baseball America rated Fletcher as a 40-grade prospect with a strong glove and a “line-drive swing with average bat speed.”  Projection systems suggest Fletcher’s bat is not currently MLB-caliber, despite his brief success in ’23.  Still, the bar is astoundingly low here, as the White Sox haven’t had their primary right fielder post a 1-WAR season since Avisail Garcia in 2017.  Fletcher may have the right field job out of the gate, though minor league signing Kevin Pillar will likely be lurking as his potential platoon partner or backup.

The Fletcher addition fits with Getz’s stated goal of improving the team’s defense.  Aside from Fletcher, the Sox have improved up the middle with DeJong, Nicky Lopez, and Maldonado.  Groundballers like Fedde and Soroka should appreciate that, and defense is generally much cheaper on the market than offense.  Of course, a tradeoff has been made, as offensive expectations for Fletcher, DeJong, Lopez, and Maldonado are quite low.

On the same day as the Fletcher trade, Getz dealt his best reliever, Gregory Santos, to the Mariners for Prelander Berroa, Zach DeLoach, and the #69 pick in this year’s draft.  The two prospects project as a potential setup man and a fourth outfielder if things go well, and the draft pick will further boost organizational depth.  With dim prospects in the short-term, trading away relievers for quality prospects is usually a good move.  DeLoach may not have the ideal arm for right field, but as a 25-year-old who played 138 games at Triple-A last year, he could push Fletcher for playing time this year.

Of course, those departures leave the White Sox with one of the game’s shakiest-looking bullpens.  New additions Steven Wilson, John Brebbia, and Tim Hill will see high-leverage work.  The idea of Michael Kopech in the rotation seems to have been abandoned, and the once-highly-regarded righty will try to find success in relief.

Dylan Cease was the undercurrent of Getz’s entire offeason.  With two years of control remaining, Cease was seemingly shopped all winter.  Getz waited out the acquisitions of Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Lucas Giolito, Chris Sale, Shota Imanaga, Marcus Stroman, and Corbin Burnes, all pitchers who had crossover with Cease’s market.  Blake Snell didn’t reach an agreement until March 18th, and as of this writing Jordan Montgomery remains available.  The Dodgers, Braves, Cardinals, Reds, Yankees, Mets, Mariners, Orioles, and Rangers were linked to Cease at various points, but it was the Padres who swooped in to make a late deal on March 13th.

As I wrote in my subscriber-only mailbag last week, comparing the trade to the handful of rare precedents, I like the deal for the White Sox.  Aside from Wilson, something of a throw-in, Getz acquired three prospects graded 50 or 55 for Cease.  Looking at deals made for James Paxton, Joe Musgrove, and Gerrit Cole, teams generally fell short of that return.

Without Cease, the White Sox rotation has the potential to be awful.  RosterResource currently projects Crochet, Fedde, Soroka, Chris Flexen, and Nick Nastrini as the starting five.  Drew Thorpe, perhaps the key piece in the Cease trade, has a great opportunity here, but did not help his short-term chances with yesterday’s spring training outing.  The projected White Sox rotation has produced exactly two good Major League seasons to date: Soroka’s 4-WAR effort in 2019, and Flexen’s 3-WAR 2021.

Trading Cease is something of a concession the White Sox are not going to be good in 2024 or 2025.  They’re projected to win 66 games this year, and it’s hard to see them leaping into contention in ’25.  Luis Robert may be at peak value coming off a healthy 5-WAR season, and he’s controlled through 2027.  A case could be made that if his performance is largely irrelevant on bad teams in ’24 and ’25, and the team might just be turning the corner in ’26, the optimal move is to cash him in now for the maximum return.  But the White Sox probably don’t see their timeline that way, and keeping Robert simply as a reason to watch the team is defensible.

Should the White Sox be taking advantage of their low payroll this year to try to add prospect capital?  In a mailbag earlier this month, I explored the concept of sign-and-flips by non-contending teams, and we found success stories to be pretty rare in practice.  As Anthony Franco put it, “If the guy was any good, he wasn’t signing a low-base MLB deal with a non-contender.”  So you might suggest the White Sox should’ve landed one-year free agents like Teoscar Hernandez or Luis Severino with a mind toward flipping them, but those players might not have been interested.

Overall, this was a good first offseason for Getz, who traded three of his more marketable players aside from Robert and got respectable returns.  It’s likely he’ll continue to listen on Eloy Jimenez and would trade Yoan Moncada if he has any kind of resurgence.  As far as the season ahead, it’s going to be ugly.

How would you grade the White Sox's offseason?
C 30.09% (860 votes)
D 24.74% (707 votes)
F 21.45% (613 votes)
B 19.31% (552 votes)
A 4.41% (126 votes)
Total Votes: 2,858

 

White Sox Name Garrett Crochet Opening Day Starter

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White Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet came into 2024 looking to make the move from the bullpen to the rotation. Not only will he break camp as a starter, but the Sox announced that Crochet will take the ball on Opening Day.

Crochet, 25 in June, has taken an unusual and winding road to get here. He served mostly in a swing role at the University of Tennessee, logging 63 2/3 innings in 2018 across 17 outings, six of which were starts. The following year, he threw 65 frames over 18 outings, six of which were starts. In 2020, he was slowed by some arm soreness and made just one start of 3 1/3 innings before the season was shut down by the Covid pandemic.

Despite the fairly limited workload, Crochet was hitting 100 miles per hour with his fastball with a strong slider and changeup to match. The Sox believed in him enough that they nabbed him in the first round, 11th overall, in the 2020 draft. They didn’t hesitate to push him to the majors, as he was up with the Sox by the middle of September that year, debuting at the age of 21. He tossed six innings out of the Chicago bullpen and then another 2/3 of an inning in the postseason, all scoreless, though he was shut down in the playoffs with some forearm tightness.

In 2021, he got to make a more proper major league debut, though stayed in the bullpen all year. He tossed 54 1/3 innings with a 2.82 earned run average. His 11.7% walk rate was a bit high but he also struck out 28.3% of batters faced. He added another 2 1/3 innings in the playoffs. There were some rumblings about moving him to the rotation going into 2022 but it became something of a moot point when the lefty required Tommy John surgery in April of 2022, wiping out that entire season for him.

Crochet returned to the club in May of 2023 and was kept in relief, understandable given his long layoff. He made 10 appearances before landing on the injured list in mid-June due to some shoulder inflammation. He stayed on the shelf for three months, returning in the middle of September to make three more appearances. He finished the year with a 3.55 ERA in 12 2/3 innings.

Throughout all of those twists and turns, Crochet maintained he wanted to try his hand at a rotation job someday. The Sox let him get stretched out here in spring and he has responded well, having tossed nine official innings, all scoreless. He struck out 12 batters without walking any, allowing seven hits. It seems he has impressed the Chicago brass enough that they will give him the ball on Opening Day, when he will make his first major league start. Per Sarah Langs of MLB.com, this will be just the ninth time in the past 110 years that a pitcher makes his first career start on Opening Day, just the third in the past 80 years and just the second in the past 43 years.

That’s at least partially a reflection of the rotation situation for the White Sox. They recently traded Dylan Cease, who was previously in line to be the club’s Opening Day starter, to the Padres. That was the latest in a series of moves that subtracted from the club’s starting depth. Both Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn were traded at last year’s deadline when they were impending free agents, while Mike Clevinger stayed through the 2023 campaign but eventually departed via free agency. Michael Kopech, who started 27 games for the Sox, was recently moved to the bullpen after a frustrating season.

That leaves Crochet in a rotation mix that will also include some offseason pickups. Erick Fedde was signed to a two-year deal after a strong season in the KBO. Chris Flexen got a one-year deal as the Sox hope for a bounceback after he had poor results in 2023. Michael Soroka was acquired from Atlanta in the trade that sent Aaron Bummer the other way.

That leaves one spot open for someone else. Nick Nastrini, acquired in the Lynn trade, has had an impressive spring. He’s allowed just one earned run in 11 innings but isn’t yet on the 40-man roster. Jake Eder is on the roster but has been slowed by shoulder soreness and hasn’t thrown in an official spring game. Jairo Iriarte also has a roster spot but he was reassigned to minor league camp by the Padres before coming over to the Sox in the Cease trade. Jared Shuster is also on the roster but was optioned by the Sox yesterday.

The Sox also have veterans like Chad Kuhl, Brad Keller and Jake Woodford in camp as non-roster invitees but could also look outside the organization for help. While they won’t be splurging on someone like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, they were recently linked to free agent Michael Lorenzen and the open market still features guys like Clevinger, Noah Syndergaard, Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke and others.

However it looks on Opening Day, it will likely change throughout the year. Soroka and Flexen are both impending free agents, making them candidates to be on the trading block this summer while the Sox are expected to be out of contention. The same could be true of Fedde, who will have a year and a half left on his deal a few months from now.

Crochet, meanwhile, will surely hit a workload limit at some point. Thanks to his injuries and working out of the bullpen, he has just 73 innings of major league experience. Since he was hurried to the majors after being drafted in 2020 when the minor leagues were cancelled, he’s hardly thrown on the farm either. His 12 1/3 innings while on rehab assignments last year are the totality of his minor league experience.

His time with Tennessee amounted to just 132 innings over three years. When combining that with his major and minor league work, it adds up to just 217 1/3 innings over the past six years. Tacking on his three playoff innings gets him to 220 1/3. That includes just 25 innings last year between the majors and minors and none the year before. That will make it essentially impossible for him to shoulder a full starter’s workload here in 2024, so the Sox will presumably have to make a decision about shutting it down at some point, with an eye on Crochet then pushing further in 2025.

Despite that lack of workload, Crochet has over three years of service time and avoided arbitration by agreeing to a salary of $800K for 2024. He’ll slated for two more arbitration seasons and would hit free agency after 2026 if he’s not optioned to the minors for an extended stretch of time between now and then. The lefty has been clear that moving to the rotation is a personal goal of his but he will also be in line for larger earnings if he makes the transition successfully. Assuming he does indeed reach the open market after 2026, he’ll be entering his age-28 season in 2027.

Padres, Tommy Pham Discussing One-Year Deal

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According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Padres are “in talks” with free agent Tommy Pham and “could be moving closer” to an agreement. It would be a one-year contract in the $3MM to $4MM range. Nightengale also reports that the White Sox are interested in the veteran outfielder if his negotiations with the Padres fall through.

Pham has been linked to San Diego through several recent reports. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote that the team remained “engaged in conversations” with Pham earlier this week, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post noted the Padres were “among teams eying Tommy Pham.” Other outfielders linked to the Padres, namely Adam Duvall and Michael A. Taylor, have now signed elsewhere, while other teams linked to Pham, such as the Diamondbacks and Pirates, have gone in a different direction.

The fit for Pham in San Diego is clear. Jurickson Profar is currently slated to get most of the playing time in left field. The Padres are surely hoping Profar bounces back from his career-worst season in 2023, but it would be nice for manager Mike Shildt to have another option if that doesn’t happen. The team will also need a designated hitter once Manny Machado is ready to return to third base; Pham played 44 games at DH last year for the Mets and D-backs.

Pham previously played for San Diego in 2020 and ’21, and Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported earlier this offseason that he would be open to a reunion.

As for the White Sox, they should be set in left field and at DH with Andrew Benintendi and Eloy Jiménez, respectively. However, the left-handed rookie Dominic Fletcher could use a platoon partner in right field, and Chicago could use a right-handed bat for the bench. Presumably, Pham is looking to be more than a bench bat and the short side of a platoon; he said as much earlier this winter. Yet, at this point in the offseason, he may have to settle for a limited role, especially if he wants to get in some spring training games before the regular season begins. What’s more, if he plays well for the White Sox, he can earn more playing time, and he can expect to be dealt to a contender before the trade deadline.

Orioles Claim Peyton Burdick

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The Orioles have claimed outfielder Peyton Burdick off of waivers from the White Sox, the team announced. He has been optioned to minor league camp. Baltimore had an open spot on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding move was necessary.

Burdick first joined the Orioles in February, but they designated him for assignment five days later upon trading for reliever Kaleb Ort. The White Sox scooped up the outfielder but DFA’d him themselves following the Dylan Cease trade, as they needed to make room for both Jairo Iriarte and Steven Wilson on the 40-man roster.

The Marlins selected Burdick in the third round of the 2019 draft, and he made his MLB debut with Miami three years later. Across 46 games in 2022 and ’23, the righty batter hit .200/.281/.368 with five home runs, two stolen bases, and -0.4 FanGraphs WAR. Power was his carrying tool throughout college and the minors, but he has yet to tap into his raw power at the major league level. Instead, he has demonstrated a strong proclivity for strikeouts, striking out in more than one-third of his plate appearances and whiffing on more than one-third of his swings.

Burdick’s performance this spring didn’t help his chances with the White Sox; he has gone 1-for-14 with five strikeouts, no walks, and one hit-by-pitch. However, the Orioles clearly see something they like in the 27-year-old. Baltimore has plenty of outfield depth on the roster, but Burdick offers the team another right-handed bat and another option for the big league bench if the Orioles would rather their more promising youngsters get everyday playing time at Triple-A.

White Sox Move Michael Kopech To Bullpen

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The White Sox are moving starter Michael Kopech to a bullpen role to begin the 2024 season, general manager Chris Getz announced to reporters on Thursday (X link via Sox Machine’s James Fegan). That’ll further shake up a rotation that suddenly projects to look quite different following last night’s trade sending Dylan Cease to San Diego.

Kopech was once a highly-touted prospect but has struggled to establish himself as a viable big league starter and is now on the cusp of his 28th birthday. Selected by the Red Sox with the 33rd overall pick in 2014, he was a top 100 prospect as he worked his way up the minor league ladder and was a key piece of the 2016 trade that sent Chris Sale to Boston.

The White Sox were surely hoping that Kopech would be a building block of their future rotation and promoted Kopech in August of 2018, but he required Tommy John surgery just about a month later. He missed all of the 2019 season and then sat out the 2020 pandemic season as well. After missing two full years of his development, he pitched primarily in relief in 2021 to build up his workload. He tossed 69 1/3 innings over 44 appearances that year with a solid 3.50 earned run average.

In 2022, he was finally able to secure a rotation gig at the big league level and the results were mixed. On the surface, his 3.54 ERA over 25 starts looked nice, but the numbers under the hood were less encouraging. His 21.3% strikeout rate and 11.5% walk rate were both a bit worse than league average. He seemed to have had some luck keeping runs off the board thanks to a .223 batting average on balls in play and 74.2% strand rate. His 4.50 FIP and 4.73 SIERA suggested that he may not have been as effective as his ERA implied.

Last year, his luck turned for the worse, as he finished the season with a 5.43 ERA. His control took a concerning blow, as he gave out walks to 15.4% of opponents. He was bumped to the bullpen late in the year but seemed like he had a path to continue starting in 2024. The Sox traded Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito at the deadline last year and then saw Mike Clevinger hit free agency coming into this winter. Rumors swirled around Dylan Cease all winter until he was finally traded to the Padres yesterday.

Despite all of those holes in the rotation, it seems the Sox don’t have much faith in Kopech as a starter at the moment and he’ll wind up in the bullpen. For what it’s worth, he’s allowed six earned run in seven innings this spring, giving out six walks in the process while also hitting two batters. He’s now just two years away from becoming a free agent so perhaps the Sox will give rotation opportunities to younger guys during their current teardown, while perhaps Kopech can turn himself into a trade chip if he can serve as an effective reliever.

Kopech doesn’t seem thrilled with his new assignment. “It’s not my first choice where I want to be,” he said to reporters, including Scott Merkin of MLB.com. “I like starting, but I’ve had success in that role. And ultimately we are looking at what’s best for the team this year. If I can help us win games in the back of the game, I’m excited to do that.”

The Sox have brought in various fresh arms to the system this year, having signed Erick Fedde and Chris Flexen while also trading for Michael Soroka, Jared Shuster, Drew Thorpe and Jairo Iriarte. They got Jake Eder from the Marlins in last year’s Jake Burger trade. Garrett Crochet seems poised to move in the opposite direction to Kopech, jumping from a relief role into the rotation.

For now, the rotation projects to include Fedde, Flexen, Crochet and Soroka in four spots. The club was recently linked to free agent Michael Lorenzen and Clevinger as well, so a late signing could fill out the rotation. As the season rolls along, some guys will get hurt or may end up as trade targets at the deadline. Soroka and Flexen are impending free agents while Fedde is on a two-year deal. If Lorenzen or Clevinger sign, they would presumably be for one- or two-year deals.

As rotation spots open, perhaps Kopech could retake one, but the group of Shuster, Thorpe, Iriarte, Eder and others will be jockeying for auditions. With the club clearly focused on the future, they may be more inclined to give opportunities to those young and controllable guys as opposed to a 28-year-old whose club control is running out.

Padres Acquire Dylan Cease

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The Dylan Cease saga has come to an end. The Padres announced the acquisition of the right-hander from the White Sox for four players: prospects Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte and Samuel Zavala and big league reliever Steven Wilson.

Cease has been a trade candidate at least as far back as last summer’s deadline. While Chicago took him off the market at that time, first-year general manager Chris Getz made clear that he was willing to consider offers on virtually everyone on the roster going into the offseason. That made Cease one of the top names of the winter.

Chicago fielded offers early in the offseason before pulling back. The Sox indicated they wanted to wait for the free agent rotation market to play out before aggressively shopping the star righty. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery have lingered in free agency longer than anyone anticipated. With Opening Day two weeks away, Chicago seemed to find more urgency to make a move. They’d reportedly talked with the Yankees and Rangers within the past few days, but it is San Diego that gets the deal done.

It’s a massive strike for them just a week before they’ll open the regular season with a two-game set against the Dodgers in South Korea. For much of the offseason, the Padres have gone in the opposite direction. They faced significant payroll constraints that led to the free agent departures of Josh Hader, Seth Lugo, Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha. Snell seems likely to follow.

The biggest loss, of course, came via trade. The Padres dealt Juan Soto to the Yankees before his final year of team control. That both offloaded his arbitration salary — which eventually checked in at $31MM — and brought back a number of controllable starting pitchers to compensate for the free agent departures. Michael King will step into the middle of the rotation. Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are candidates for a back-end role. Thorpe came over in that trade and would have been in the rotation mix as well, but he’s now headed to Chicago before throwing a regular season pitch for the Padres.

Despite targeting upper level pitching in the Soto return, San Diego had a largely unproven rotation. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish were locked into the top two spots. King was ensured of a job after a strong finish last season with the Yankees, but he’d been a reliever for most of his major league career. He only moved to the starting staff for his final eight appearances beginning at the end of August. The rest of the starting pitching options in the organization have limited MLB experience of any kind.

Cease addresses that lack of experience. The former sixth-round pick has been a fixture of the Sox’s rotation since 2020. Aside from a brief virus-related absence in ’21, he hasn’t missed any time as a major leaguer. Cease leads the majors with 109 starts over the last four seasons.

At his best, Cease has paired that pristine durability with a top-of-the-rotation ceiling. He was dominant two seasons ago, turning in a 2.20 ERA with an excellent 30.4% strikeout rate through 184 innings. He was runner-up behind Justin Verlander in that season’s Cy Young balloting and received some down-ballot MVP consideration.

The 28-year-old didn’t replicate that ace-caliber production last season. He had a pedestrian 4.58 ERA across 177 frames. While some level of regression from a 2.20 mark always seemed likely, his earned run average more than doubling wasn’t expected. That’s partially a reflection of a dramatic swing in Cease’s batted ball fortune. Opponents hit only .260 on balls in play against him in 2022; that spiked 70 points a season ago.

Beyond the ball-in-play results, Cease was a little less overpowering in ’23 than he’d been the previous season. His swinging strike rate dipped from 15% to 13.6%. He lost three percentage points off his strikeout rate, which fell to 27.3%. The average velocity on both his fastball (95.6 MPH) and slider (86.3 MPH) dropped a tick. Those are all still better than average marks but not quite as impressive as his 2022 metrics.

As is often the case, Cease’s true talent ERA very likely falls somewhere in the middle. Going back to the start of 2020, he carries a 3.58 mark in just shy of 600 innings. That has come in a tough home ballpark for pitchers in front of generally lackluster defenses.

At the same time, Cease has never had pristine control of his high-octane stuff. He has walked more than 10% of batters faced in three of the past four seasons, including his Cy Young runner-up campaign. He issued free passes at a 10.1% clip last year. That inconsistent command has kept him from blossoming into a true ace and is part of the reason he’s “only” 16th in innings pitched over the last four seasons despite topping MLB in starts.

It’s debatable but largely immaterial where Cease slots alongside Darvish and Musgrove among San Diego’s top three starters. King moves to the #4 spot, while the Friars now have only one Opening Day rotation job up for grabs. Brito, Vásquez, knuckleballer Matt Waldron and the out-of-options Pedro Avila could each be in the mix for the role.

It’s a renewed push for contention by a San Diego front office that has never shied away from dealing for star talent. Cease becomes the defining addition of the Padre offseason, largely enabled by his affordability. He and the White Sox had agreed to an $8MM salary to avoid arbitration. He’s under control via that process through the 2025 campaign. The Padres can plug him into the rotation for the next two years for what’ll likely be between $20MM and $25MM overall.

RosterResource calculates San Diego’s 2024 player payroll around $167MM, including Cease’s salary. The trade pushes their luxury tax number around $224MM, roughly $13MM below this year’s lowest threshold. The Friars have worked to stay under the tax line after exceeding it in each of the past three seasons. They still have questions about the overall roster depth — particularly in the outfield — but they have some flexibility to continue adding either this spring or at the deadline without pushing into CBT territory.

Landing a pitcher of Cease’s caliber and affordability required parting with a few fairly well-regarded young players. San Diego was never going to trade Ethan Salas or Jackson Merrill and managed to keep young pitchers Dylan Lesko and Robby Snelling out of the deal. Thorpe, Zavala and Iriarte were all generally regarded in the next tier of Padres talents. Baseball America ranked all three between fifth and ninth in the San Diego system. The Athletic’s Keith Law had those players in the 6-9 range on his organizational prospect list.

As a key piece of the Soto return, Thorpe is probably the most well-known of the bunch. A second-round pick in 2022 out of Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, Thorpe had a breakout showing in his first full minor league season. The 6’4″ right-hander worked to a 2.52 ERA in 23 starts between High-A and Double-A last year. He fanned more than a third of opposing hitters against a modest 7.1% walk rate.

Thorpe doesn’t light up radar guns with a fastball that sits in the low-90s. Evaluators credit him with a plus or better changeup and an above-average breaking ball, though. He has shown advanced strike-throwing acumen, although Law writes that his precise command (the ability to spot pitches where he wants them) isn’t as impressive as his control (hitting the strike zone consistently). Baseball America, FanGraphs and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel all placed Thorpe in the back half of the league’s Top 100 prospects this winter. He’s a potential mid-rotation arm who could impact the Sox as soon as this year.

Iriarte, a 6’2″ righty from Venezuela, could also be part of the major league pitching staff at some point in 2024. The 22-year-old worked 90 1/3 frames across 27 appearances between High-A and Double-A last season. He allowed 3.49 earned runs per nine behind a 33.2% strikeout percentage. He also walked almost 12% of opposing hitters, but there’s clear bat-missing potential.

Evaluators credit Iriarte with upper 90s velocity with a plus slider and a promising but inconsistent changeup. The chance for three above-average to plus offerings gives him significant upside, although evaluators are split on whether he’ll stick as a starting pitcher. He’ll need to refine his secondary stuff and continue to improve his control, but his athleticism gives him the opportunity to do so. FanGraphs slotted Iriarte in the back half of their Top 100 list. The Sox can take their time to afford him plenty of reps in the upper minors.

Zavala, 19, is a further away development flier. The lefty-hitting outfielder was one of the better prospects in the 2020-21 international signing period. He spent most of last season at Low-A Lake Elsinore. Zavala’s .267/.420/.451 batting line is impressive for a player his age, but prospect evaluators are divided on his long-term upside. Law suggests he’s unlikely to stick in center field, while most reports question his pure contact skills. Zavala took plenty of walks but also struck out at an alarming 27.2% clip in Low-A.

Wilson might be the fourth piece of the return, but he should step directly into the big league bullpen. The 29-year-old righty has been a quality reliever in each of the last two seasons. Wilson owns a 3.48 ERA across 106 career innings. He has fanned just over a quarter of opposing hitters against a 10.9% walk rate. Wilson leans heavily on a low-80s breaking ball and sits in the mid-90s with his fastball.

That profile has led to better strikeout and walk numbers versus right-handed batters, but Wilson has gotten decent results against hitters of either handedness. He could step into high-leverage work in a completely open Sox bullpen. The Santa Clara product has exactly two years of service. Chicago controls him through at least 2027, depending on whether they option him to the minors at any point. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until next offseason.

The White Sox had named Cease their Opening Day starter. That’s no longer on the table as they commit even further to a retool. KBO returnee Erick Fedde is perhaps the top pitcher in what might be the weakest rotation in the American League. Michael Soroka, Chris Flexen, Michael Kopech, Garrett Crochet and Jared Shuster are among the other possibilities. Thorpe figures to open the season in Triple-A but could pitch his way into the mix before long.

Chicago could go outside the organization to try to backfill some of their lost innings. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last night that the Sox had interest in Michael Lorenzen as a potential Cease replacement. Zack Greinke, Jake Odorizzi and old friend Johnny Cueto also remain unsigned.

Iriarte and Wilson are each on the 40-man roster. Thorpe and Zavala won’t be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until the 2025-26 offseason, although Thorpe seems likely to pitch his way onto the MLB roster well before that point. Chicago designated outfielder Peyton Burdick for assignment to open the necessary 40-man spot.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Padres were finalizing a trade for Cease. Jon Heyman of the New York Post confirmed a Cease agreement was in place. Jon Morosi of MLB.com was first to report the White Sox were acquiring Thorpe and Iriarte. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin first reported Wilson’s inclusion. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first with Zavala being in the deal.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

White Sox Designate Peyton Burdick For Assignment

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The White Sox announced they’ve designated outfielder Peyton Burdick for assignment. The move creates a spot on the 40-man roster to accommodate Steven Wilson and Jairo Iriarte, both of whom were acquired in the Dylan Cease trade.

Chicago claimed Burdick off waivers from the Orioles earlier in camp. The right-handed hitter has gone from the Marlins to Baltimore and the Sox within the last five weeks. He could find himself on the move yet again. Chicago will trade him or place him on outright waivers within the next seven days.

A third-round pick by Miami in 2019, Burdick has plus raw power but significant swing-and-miss concerns. The Wright State product has seen brief MLB action in each of the last two seasons. He combined for a .200/.281/.368 line over 46 games, striking out at a 38.1% clip. Burdick spent the bulk of last year in Triple-A. He connected on 24 homers and stole 12 bases in 492 trips to the plate, yet he went down on strikes nearly 37% of the time. Burdick finished the season with a .219/.327/.448 slash at the top minor league level.

The Sox gave him a brief look this spring. He started 1-15 before being optioned to minor league camp. He still has two minor league options remaining, so another team could stash him in Triple-A as a power-hitting depth player if they’re willing to carry him on the 40-man roster.

Padres, White Sox Have Recently Discussed Dylan Cease Trade

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Trade talk surrounding White Sox righty Dylan Cease has apparently rekindled in full. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Padres and White Sox have recently discussed the 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up, which aligns with yesterday’s report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, wherein he noted that the White Sox have had several members of their front office present to get first-hand looks at the Padres in recent days. The Friars join the Yankees and Rangers as clubs prominently linked to Cease in the second act of his offseason trade candidacy.

By now, the merits and risks regarding a trade for Cease have been well documented. He’s an affordable — $8MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2025 — 28-year-old righty with two years of team control who demonstrated his upside with a second-place Cy Young finish in 2022 but struggled through a down year in 2023, when he notched a 4.58 ERA with slightly diminished (but still far better than average) strikeout and velocity numbers. Cease has worse command than one would prefer from a top starting pitcher, which has long been an issue, but he and other Sox hurlers have also been harmed by perennially poor defensive alignments behind them.

Last year’s pedestrian ERA notwithstanding, Cease is a durable power pitcher whom other organizations undoubtedly view as a playoff-caliber starter — if not a true No. 1 then at least a strong No. 2-3 option in a postseason rotation. No pitcher in baseball has started more games than Cease’s 109 dating back to 2020 — his first full season at the MLB level. Even if one were to assume that Cease’s 2022 season was an outlier, career-best campaign while his 2023 ERA was somewhat fluky in nature, a look at his entire body of work over the past three seasons reveals strong overall numbers: 526 2/3 innings of 3.54 ERA ball with a huge 29.8% strikeout rate against an elevated 10.1% walk rate. Fielding-independent metrics tend to support the idea that Cease’s talent level lands somewhere in the mid-  to upper-3.00s.

In terms of pure team fit, the Padres are as strong a match as one could conjure up. The Friars’ offseason has been something of a financially motivated reset, but the team isn’t about to enter a full-scale rebuild with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove all signed long-term. The Padres only have three clear starters at the moment in Musgrove, Darvish and trade acquisition Michael King, who came over from the Yankees in the Juan Soto swap.

Adding Cease to the rotation and cementing the top four spots would create a fifth-starter battle including Matt Waldron, Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito, Pedro Avila, Jay Groome and others. The team’s chances of competing with that group vying for only the final spot in the rotation, obviously, would be far greater than needing to rely on two names from that unproven group to carry the back end of the staff. (Some of those names, of course, could be included in a theoretical trade package with the White Sox.)

The affordable nature of Cease’s contract surely appeals to a San Diego club that has slashed the present-day cost of its roster by nearly $100MM. That’s doubly true in that Cease’s $8MM salary wouldn’t put the Padres anywhere particularly close to the $237MM luxury-tax threshold they’re clearly hoping to avoid. RosterResource projects San Diego at just over $216MM in luxury obligations. Cease would be a net $7.26MM in luxury considerations, bringing the team to around $223.5MM. That’d still leave some room if president of baseball operations A.J. Preller wants to add Cease and pursue one more free agent outfielder, as has been rumored; the Padres were connected to Adam Duvall, Michael A. Taylor and old friend Tommy Pham earlier this week.

While Preller’s years of frenetic activity on the trade market lead to constant churn in the farm system, the Padres remain strong in that regard. Each of MLB.com, ESPN and Baseball America rank the Padres among the sport’s top six farm systems, due largely to strong drafting and international scouting, in addition to replenishing some of their lost depth in the trade that sent Soto and Trent Grisham to New York. Top prospect Jackson Merrill looks on track to be the team’s Opening Day center fielder and is surely all but untouchable alongside ballyhooed catcher Ethan Salas. But the Friars have as many as six other prospects who’ve drawn top-100 fanfare, in addition to a slew of near-MLB-ready talent that could entice the ChiSox to part with Cease.

Rangers, White Sox Have Recently Discussed Dylan Cease

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Significant trades halfway through Spring Training are rare, yet speculation about White Sox’s staff ace Dylan Cease hasn’t gone away. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this morning that the Yankees put a new trade proposal on the table for Chicago’s expected Opening Day starter. Meanwhile, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that the Rangers are still considering which players they might need to relinquish to try to pry Cease from the Sox.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that the Sox and Rangers have had recent conversations regarding Cease. Rosenthal indicates that Chicago seems to be “getting more serious” about dealing the hard-throwing righty this spring.

Manager Pedro Grifol demurred this evening when asked whether he still expected Cease to start for the Sox on Opening Day. “I don’t know. I mean, how am I supposed to know that,” he asked rhetorically (via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). “I don’t know what’s going to happen out there. I don’t know where other teams are, what their urgency is. … I leave that to our major league scouts, our general manager, the front office.”

While the Yankees’ renewed interest in Cease is tied to Gerrit Cole’s MRI, Texas hasn’t dealt with any recent injuries to their rotation. Yet they went into camp knowing that three of their top starters — Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle — were going to begin the year on the shelf. Mahle and deGrom seem likely to be out past the All-Star Break as they work back from last year’s respective Tommy John procedures. Scherzer underwent back surgery in December and is expected to be sidelined into June.

That puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the pitching staff to hold the fort for the season’s first couple months. The Rangers have a front four of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney. Left-hander Cody Bradford is the favorite for the #5 job to open the season. Texas optioned Cole Winn over the weekend, taking him out of the mix for an Opening Day job. Owen White and Zak Kent are on the 40-man roster but have a combined two MLB appearances between them (both by White). José Ureña and Adrian Sampson are in camp on non-roster deals but should be behind Bradford on the depth chart.

If healthy, that’s still a solid front four. Yet there’s a fair amount of injury risk with much of that group. Eovaldi has twice undergone Tommy John surgery in his career. Gray has been on the injured list four times in his two seasons as a Ranger. Heaney was healthy last season but lost a good chunk of 2022 to shoulder problems. Even Dunning has a Tommy John surgery in his history, although he has been durable and quite effective for the last three seasons.

Even if that entire group stays healthy, Texas would benefit from another arm who can push Bradford to a long relief role. The southpaw turned in a 5.30 ERA in his first 56 big league frames a year ago. He has excellent control but struggled with home runs last season. That’s likely to be a recurring concern as a fly-ball pitcher without overpowering stuff. His fastball averaged 90.4 MPH.

To his credit, the Baylor product has pitched well this spring. Bradford has rattled off 11 innings of three-run ball, fanning nine against a pair of walks. Still, that’s unlikely to deter the front office from considering ways to upgrade the staff as they look to defend the first World Series in franchise history.

The Sox’s asking price on Cease has remained high, which is why he’s still in Chicago two weeks from Opening Day. The 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up is coming off a down year, turning in a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings. With mid-90s velocity and a strikeout rate that sat above 27% last season, he’s a clear rebound candidate. Cease is under arbitration control for two more years and will make $8MM in 2024. That affordability makes him an attractive alternative to top remaining free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. The Rangers have had a fairly quiet offseason, thanks in part to trepidation about the long-term viability of their TV deal with Bally Sports.

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