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Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Transaction Retrospection: Teoscar Hernandez Trade

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Few players raised their stock more this past season than Teoscar Hernández. A competent but unspectacular hitter from 2018-19, Hernández had what looked like a breakout in 2020. Over 207 plate appearances, the Blue Jay outfielder hit .289/.340/.579 with 16 home runs. Along the way, he ranked in the 94th percentile or better in such Statcast metrics as average exit velocity, hard contact, expected weighted on-base average and barrel rate.

Hernández isn’t a flawless player. He’s a below-average defender. He has long had issues making contact, with a career 31.6% strikeout rate only marginally higher than last year’s 30.4%. Moving forward, the 28-year-old looks more like a solid regular than a star in the making. Regardless, Hernández is a valuable and important part of a Toronto roster coming off a berth in the expanded playoffs and looking on the verge of perennial postseason contention.

With that in mind, it’s worth looking back at the deal that landed Hernández with the Jays in the first place. Originally signed as an international amateur by the Astros, Hernández was flipped (alongside veteran outfielder Nori Aoki) to Toronto in advance of the 2017 trade deadline for left-hander Francisco Liriano. To that point, the veteran southpaw had posted just a 5.88 ERA as a starter for the Blue Jays. He had stifled opposing left-handed hitters, though, holding them to a .230/.254/.361 slash line.

The Houston front office thought a bullpen transition, where Liriano could be heavily leveraged against same-handed batters, could make him an asset. With George Springer, Josh Reddick, Derek Fisher and Jake Marisnick all on hand (and Kyle Tucker rapidly climbing the minor-league ladder), the Astros felt they could part with an MLB-ready outfield prospect to acquire a relief weapon. Unfortunately, Liriano continued to scuffle down the stretch, pitching to a 4.40 ERA with an 11:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14.1 relief innings as an Astro.

Despite mediocre production from Liriano, the Astros went on to win the World Series. However one feels about the legitimacy of that title after subsequent revelations of Houston’s sign-stealing operation, the team probably wouldn’t undo any specific transaction related to the roster in retrospect. But from a pure value perspective, there’s no question Toronto came out ahead in the swap. Aoki barely played for the team, but Hernández looks to have emerged as a capable everyday performer as the Jays’ new contention window opens. He remains under club control through 2023.

Blue Jays Place Ken Giles On IL, Activate Teoscar Hernandez

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Blue Jays reliever Ken Giles has returned to the 10-day injured list with a right forearm strain, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports. The team also placed outfielder Derek Fisher on the IL with a knee issue, optioned lefty Anthony Kay, activated outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, and recalled righties Jacob Waguespack and Hector Perez.

It’s an alarming situation for Giles, whom arm injuries have weighed down dating back to 2019. He was enjoying an all-world campaign last year before elbow troubles shelved him and prevented the Blue Jays from dealing him before the trade deadline. Giles came back healthy this year, but after making two appearances at the beginning of the campaign, he sat from late July until Sept. 11. The 29-year-old struggled in the two outings sandwiched between IL stints, and has given up four earned runs in 3 2/3 frames this season.

Giles’ season could be over at this point, though he may have a chance to return if the Blue Jays qualify for the playoffs. For now, though, his loss is a blow to their bullpen and potentially to his bank account. As a pending free agent, Giles could have been in for a sizable contract had he been healthy and effective this season. That could still prove to be the case when the offseason rolls around, but Giles’ value certainly hasn’t risen in 2020.

The good news for Toronto is that it’s getting back Hernandez, who was among the league’s top hitters before he went on the IL on Sept. 7 with a left oblique strain. So far, Hernandez has slashed .308/.358/.637 with 14 home runs in 159 plate appearances.

Bo Bichette Back, Teoscar Hernandez And Rowdy Tellez Hopeful To Return Before Playoffs

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The Toronto Blue Jays have pushed their contention window up with a strong first two-thirds of the season. At 24-20, Charlie Montoyo’s club sits half a game ahead of the Yankees for second place in the AL East. If the season ended today, Toronto would find themselves in the playoff bracket for the first time since back-to-back ALCS appearances in 2015 and 2016.

The Blue Jays have remained competitive despite a number of injuries to their offense. Bo Bichette is their biggest absence to date, but he’s back in the lineup for tonight’s game, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (via Twitter). They may have other reinforcements on the way as well. GM Ross Atkins sounds hopeful that Rowdy Tellez can return soon, though his language suggests a playoff return is more likely, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). Said Atkins, “Hopefully Rowdy becomes an option for us if not by the end of the season, hopefully by the playoffs.”

Tellez hit the injured list just a couple days ago with a knee strain. For the first 35 games of the season, the Blue Jays featured Tellez prominently as the big first baseman slashed .283/.346/.540 with 8 home runs and 23 RBIs while splitting his time between first base and designated hitter.

Teoscar Hernandez could return to the lineup even sooner, per Nicholson-Smith. The 27-year-old has enjoyed a breakout campaign as his contact and on-base skills have – at least in the small sample of the season – caught up with his considerable power. Over the previous two seasons, Hernandez posted a triple slash of .235/.304/.470 with 8.7 BB%, 32 K%, and a .235 ISO. This season, slight improvements in strikeout rate (28.3 K%) and a robust display of power (.329 ISO) have led to a .308/.358/.637 line with 14 home runs across 159 plate appearances this season for the right fielder. Of course, a .352 BABIP, perhaps brought on a by rising 56.9% Hard Hit percentage, hasn’t hurt his cause either. Per Nicholson-Smith, Hernandez’s recovery has thus far gone better than expected.

Blue Jays Place Teoscar Hernandez On 10-Day IL

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The Blue Jays have placed outfielder Teoscar Hernandez (left oblique strain) and right-hander Wilmer Font (right shin contusion) on the 10-day injured list, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet tweets. The team recalled outfielder Jonathan Davis and righty Sean Reid-Foley to fill out its roster.

While the severity of Hernandez’s injury is unknown, oblique issues are always a concern – especially considering that the regular season is in its final month. The Blue Jays, owners of a 22-18 record, are a playoff team as of now, and Hernandez has contributed plenty to their cause so far. After a pair of roughly league-average full seasons at the plate, the 27-year-old has seemingly broken through with a tremendous .308/.358/.637 line over 157 plate appearances in 2020. Hernandez ranks second among qualified hitters in home runs (14), 16th in wRC+ (163) and 20th in fWAR (1.5). He also sits near the top of the league in several Statcast categories, including expected weighted on-base average (.443).

Defensively, Hernandez has primarily handled right field for the Blue Jays, who have also used Cavan Biggio and Derek Fisher there. But Toronto did better its infield/outfield depth when it acquired Jonathan Villar at last week’s trade deadline, and he could give the team another option in right as long as Hernandez is out. For Monday’s crucial game against the division-rival Yankees, though, the Blue Jays will have Biggio take over for Hernandez.

Teoscar Hernandez Dealing With Rib Injury

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Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernández is dealing with left rib cage stiffness, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter link). Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun (Twitter link) first reported that Hernández had suffered a rib-related injury. He’s headed for further examination, notes Nicholson-Smith (via Twitter). Longley adds that Hernández is likely ticketed for the injured list.

Needless to say, an extended absence for Hernández would be a massive blow for the 21-18 Blue Jays, who are tied with the Yankees for second place in the AL East. Hernández has seemingly broken out in his age-27 season, putting up a monstrous .308/.358/.637 slash line. Only Mike Trout (15) has hit more runs than Hernández, who has slugged 14 in just 159 plate appearances. Unsurprisingly, the right-handed hitting Hernández also sits near the top of the league’s Statcast hitting metrics, with a 97th percentile or better mark in terms of average exit velocity, hard contact rate, expected batting average and expected slugging percentage.

Derek Fisher is starting in Hernández’s customary right field spot for Toronto against the Red Sox this afternoon. He figures to pick up the lion’s share of playing time there if Hernández winds up missing time.

The Blue Jays’ Uncertain Outfield Mix

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When the Blue Jays were at their peak in 2015-16, the outfield wasn’t much of an issue. Jose Bautista was holding down right field as one of MLB’s most feared hitters — the brash owner of a .243/.372/.499 slash line that underscored his patience at the plate and his thunderous power. In center field, Kevin Pillar was a staple on highlight reels thanks to a superhuman defensive prowess that led to his gaudy 38 Defensive Runs Saved in that two-year stretch. Pillar’s .272/.309/.388 slash wasn’t particularly impressive, but paired with his world-beating defense, that made him a plenty valuable player on the whole.

Left field was a bit shakier, if only because of persistent injury troubles for the since-retired Michael Saunders. More often than not, Saunders was in the lineup, though the Jays also trotted out Ben Revere, Ezequiel Carrera and Danny Valencia at times. That was the closest they’ve come to any real inconsistency in that time.

That continuity feels like a distant memory now, as the Jays have since turned over their entire outfield mix on multiple occasions and yet still don’t have much certainty. It appears likely that 2019 breakout slugger Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will get the first look in left field whenever play resumes. His 2019 season at the plate was undeniably impressive — .277/.327/.541, 20 homers in 343 PAs — but it also came in a season that was skewed by a juiced ball. Gurriel’s glovework didn’t rate well, either, though he’s a converted infielder so perhaps there’ll be an uptick with more experience.

Center field seems likely to go to Randal Grichuk, though at this point that’s because of his contract more than his recent play. The Jays signed Grichuk to a surprising extension last spring, and Grichuk responded with a career-worst .232/.280/.457 slash. That .280 OBP was the worst in baseball among qualified hitters. Even without a 2020 season, Grichuk would still be owed $29MM from 2021-23, so he’s sure to get a chance (or multiple chances) at redemption — but a replacement-level showing in year one of the deal isn’t what the Jays had in mind.

The remaining outfield options (in alphabetical order):

  • Anthony Alford, drafted in third round (2012): A two-sport star who could’ve pursued a career in football as well, Alford has received just 59 plate appearances in the past three seasons and now finds himself out of minor league options. Alford was a top 100 prospect each year from 2016-18, but he’s yet to even hit in Triple-A and now has no clear path to playing time in such a crowded mix.
  • Jonathan Davis, drafted in the 15th round (2013): Davis will turn 28 in a few weeks and has just 122 MLB plate appearances to his credit (with a .185/.264/.259 slash). Davis runs well and has shown a patient eye at the plate in the upper minors, but he’s been a roughly average bat in Triple-A and seems more like a fourth outfielder than a big league regular.
  • Brandon Drury, acquired from Yankees in exchange for J.A. Happ: As recently as 2016-17, Drury looked like a solid multi-positional piece with the D-backs. Since hitting .275/.323/.453 in that stretch, though, he’s been traded to the Yankees and then the Jays, hitting just .210/.261/.362 in 533 plate appearances along the way. Drury popped up an astonishing 21 times in just 447 plate appearances this past season, and his strikeout rate has risen from 20 percent in ’16 to 25.3 percent in ’19.
  • Derek Fisher, acquired from the Astros in exchange for Aaron Sanchez, Joe Biagini: With George Springer, Josh Reddick, Michael Brantley, Jake Marisnick and Kyle Tucker all ahead of him during his time with Houston, Fisher never got much of a chance. Like McKinney, he’s not fooled by Triple-A pitching (career .289/.379/.520), but Fisher has whiffed in nearly 37 percent of his 419 Major League plate appearances — including a 40.2 percent mark in 107 PAs with Toronto. He, too, is out of minor league options.
  • Teoscar Hernandez, acquired from the Astros in exchange for Francisco Liriano: Hernandez came to the Jays as an exit-velocity darling and still makes plenty of good contact, but his hard-hit rate and average exit velo did trend in the wrong direction last year. His strikeout issues aren’t as pronounced as those of Fisher, but Hernandez has punched out at a 32 percent clip in just shy of 1000 Blue Jays plate appearances.
  • Billy McKinney, acquired from Yankees in exchange for J.A. Happ: A former first-round pick (Athletics, 2013), McKinney has been traded from Oakland to Chicago to New York to Toronto — never receiving a real big league opportunity prior to Toronto. He’s since appeared in 120 games and taken 404 plate appearances with the Jays, but he’s mustered a tepid .227/.289/.437 slash in that stretch. McKinney has consistently hit Triple-A pitching, but that hasn’t stopped the Jays from acquiring new outfield options to join the competition.

The Jays have a potential breakout candidate in left field (Gurriel), a rebound candidate in center (Grichuk) and what seems competition brewing in a make-or-break year for many of their remaining players. The DH spot will give them some extra opportunities to evaluate all of their options from an offensive standpoint, but they’ll also want to get a look at Rowdy Tellez in that spot.

Both Alford and Fisher need to remain on the big league roster or else be exposed to waiver, while Hernandez and McKinney each have just one option year remaining. Drury is more of a utility option than an everyday piece in the outfield, but he was already in danger of being non-tendered this winter and is down to his final option year as well.

On the whole, it’s a rather underwhelming cast of characters despite the club’s considerable efforts to bring together a mix of intriguing, often post-hype outfield candidates. Between this group’s eroding minor league options and talk of Cavan Biggio eventually moving to the outfield — although defensive metrics thought his work at second base was plenty good in ’19 — it’s possible that no one from this set of players will be a part of the next contending outfield unit in Toronto.

The Jays already made one aggressive, win-now move this winter when they signed Hyun-Jin Ryu, and team president Mark Shapiro recently indicated that the Jays could use a center field upgrade. If this group can’t get it done whenever play resumes, it seems likely that Shapiro, GM Ross Atkins and the rest of the front office will be left with little choice other than pursuing more established options now that the club is moving away from its rebuilding phase.

10 Players Switch Agencies

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Agent Rafa Nieves’ newly-founded Republik Sports agency will represent several players formerly represented by Nieves at Wasserman.  A video published earlier today on Republik’s official Twitter feed reveals the names of 11 players who will continue to be represented by Nieves at this new firm.

We already heard last night that Nationals outfielder Victor Robles (a Nieves client at Wasserman) was joining Republik, and the other ten names cited in the video include a mix of prominent veteran and up-and-coming stars.  The list consists of Indians infielder Jose Ramirez, Reds right-hander Luis Castillo, Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco, Athletics right-hander Frankie Montas, Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, Rockies righty Antonio Senzatela, Padres outfielder Franchy Cordero, Marlins catcher Francisco Cervelli, and White Sox relievers Alex Colome and Kelvin Herrera.

As we’ve seen in several past cases of representatives changing agencies or starting new agencies, it’s quite common for players to continue using the same agent even after that rep becomes part of another company.  We saw this in 2017 with Nieves himself, as several of the aforementioned players (namely Ramirez, Robles, Herrera, Colome, Cervelli, Polanco, and Montas) all went with Nieves when the agent moved from the Beverly Hills Sports Council to Wasserman.

The 10 changes have all been updated in our Agency Database.  If you see any notable errors or omissions within the database, please let us know via e-mail: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Mark Shapiro On Blue Jays’ Offseason

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Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro joined Sportsnet’s Tim and Sid (link to YouTube) to discuss the state of the team’s offseason efforts. He emphasized that “there’s still a good amount of offseason left” and suggested further additions are yet to come.

Shapiro acknowledged that the market has driven salaries higher than anticipated. In response, the club has “adjusted our threshold on players and gone … a certain percentage higher than we thought we would go.”

That still hasn’t resulted in any major additions, with Shapiro explaining that a variety of circumstances have kept the Jays from locking up certain targets. One particular challenge, he suggested, lies in convincing players of the team’s readiness to win games. That seems to present a bit of a chicken/egg dilemma, though obviously the organization hopes that its on-field output will improve from within as well as benefiting from new additions.

So what of the hoped for “significant additions”? Shapiro says the club has “already added” — a nod to the still-unofficial Tanner Roark and Shun Yamaguchi additions — and is “not done this winter.” (Shapiro suggests the club values Yamaguchi for his ability to provide rotation depth and “upside out of the pen.” ) But Shapiro acknowledged it’s less likely now than it once was that the club will install one major player, though he made clear he’s still holding out hope.

Shapiro asks that the organization be judged at the end of the winter and based upon the entirety of the roster movement that occurs. He believes there’ll be “significant” improvement by that standard when camp opens in the spring.

But Shapiro also left some unmistakable warnings not to expect too much. He cited the need to maintain “future flexibility” for a hoped-for “window of opportunity,” explaining that the organization must “grudgingly approach giving up that flexibility.” And when asked about potentially adding to the position-player mix, Shapiro used the opportunity to explain why the organization is hesitant to “give up” on certain players, proffering Teoscar Hernandez and Derek Fisher as examples.

Blue Jays Notes: Giles, Japanese FAs, Gurriel, Hernandez

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While Blue Jays reliever Ken Giles looks like an obvious offseason trade candidate, general manager Ross Atkins indicated Tuesday it’s not a sure thing the team will deal him. “We’ve been really focused on acquiring players. We really haven’t engaged on trading players away much at all,” Atkins said in regards to Giles (per Jon Morosi of MLB.com). The flamethrowing Giles may have been out of Toronto by now had he been healthy at the July 31 deadline, but elbow issues helped prevent a trade from coming together. The 29-year-old was utterly brilliant in 2019, though, as he recorded a 1.87 ERA/2.27 FIP with 14.09 K/9, 2.89 BB/9 and 23 saves on 24 tries over 53 innings. Giles is now going into his final season of arbitration, in which he’s projected to make an affordable $8.4MM.

Here’s more on Toronto, all of which comes courtesy of Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter links: 1, 2, 3, 4)

  • The Blue Jays have interest in Japanese free agents (or soon-to-be free agents) Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Shogo Akiyama and Ryosuke Kikuchi, Atkins revealed. Tsutsugo’s a 27-year-old corner outfielder who has smacked 205 home runs in exactly 4,000 plate appearances in Nippon Professional Baseball. The Yokohama DeNA BayStars intend to post him by Dec. 5. Akiyama will try to parlay a strong nine-year run with the Seibu Lions of NPB into a major league contract. The 31-year-old center fielder, who won’t be subjected to the posting system, may have the highest upside of the three when it comes to earning power, as MLBTR projects he’ll rake in a two-year, $6MM guarantee this offseason. Kikuchi, a member of NPB’s Hiroshima Carp, will be posted after eight seasons with the club. The 29-year-old second baseman has not been an offensive standout in Japan, but he has thrived defensively.
  • Toronto’s at least considering using outfielders Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez in the infield next season, per Atkins. Gurriel began his career as a middle infielder, but he struggled enough there that the team shifted him to left field in 2019. That experiment paid off, though it’s reportedly possible Gurriel could be an offseason trade chip for the club. As for Hernandez, although the .230/.306/.472 line he put up in 464 plate appearances this year doesn’t look great, he did go on a second-half tear and finish with 26 home runs. But Hernandez had difficulty in center field, where he accounted for minus-7 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-7.7 Ultimate Zone Rating. Going forward, he might see time at first and/or second, Atkins suggested. Toronto looks to be in fine shape at the keystone, where Cavan Biggio enjoyed a terrific rookie season, though first is a question mark. Justin Smoak’s a free agent, and Rowdy Tellez didn’t have an especially successful year.
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