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Teoscar Hernandez

Marlins Notes: Reynolds, Hernandez, Bullpen, Neidert, Sixto

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The Marlins were on the hunt for outfield upgrades all winter, eventually culminating in multi-year free agent deals with Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler. Neither player required parting with young talent, but the Fish looked into potential higher-impact acquisitions on the trade market.

Miami has long had interest in prying star center fielder Bryan Reynolds from Pittsburgh, and Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald shed some light on the teams’ discussions. The Bucs and Marlins discussed permutations that would’ve involved top shortstop prospect Kahlil Watson — Miami’s first-round pick last summer — headed back as part of a deal. However, Jackson and Mish write that the Marlins balked at including both Watson and 2020 #3 overall pick Max Meyer in a Reynolds trade.

Baseball America placed both Watson and Meyer among the back half of their Top 100 prospects this winter. Watson, a lefty-hitting shortstop with big bat speed and athleticism, fell to the Marlins at 16th in last year’s draft but signed for the 10th-highest bonus. That better reflected how evaluators viewed him as an amateur prospect, and he’s generally regarded as one of the highest-upside players in the minors. Meyer, meanwhile, has one of the minors’ best fastball-slider combinations and struck out 27.2% of Double-A hitters in his first full pro season. Prospect evaluators have raised some concerns about his size and command consistency, but he boasts a high-octane arsenal and isn’t that far from MLB readiness.

Parting with both Watson and Meyer would’ve been quite a blow to the Miami farm system, but it reflects the huge asking price the Pirates can justifiably set with four years of arbitration control over Reynolds. Reports going back to last summer’s trade deadline have suggested the Bucs preferred to build around him rather than move him. Reynolds told reporters (including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) this afternoon the Pirates haven’t approached him about an extension this offseason, and they’re set to go to an arbitration hearing to determine his 2022 salary after not agreeing to terms yesterday. Still, the 27-year-old downplayed the notion that a hearing could affect his relationship with the organization. “I’m an adult,” he said. “I can handle it. I don’t care. I have a pretty good idea of what’ll be said and all that. We’ll prepare, and we’ll be fine.”

Jackson and Mish write the Marlins and Pirates may eventually revisit trade talks, although it’ll again be difficult to pry him out of Pittsburgh. The Herald reports the Marlins also had some pre-lockout discussions with the Blue Jays regarding corner outfielder Teoscar Hernández, but those conversations are no longer active. Soler’s signing to play right field would seem to close the door on the possibility of Miami making a run at another corner outfielder/DH option like Hernández.

Speaking with reporters (including Christina De Nicola of MLB.com) this afternoon, general manager Kim Ng expressed her confidence in the Miami outfield. She pointed to García and Bryan De La Cruz as options to see some time in center field, while Jackson and Mish write that Jesús Sánchez could get a look there as well. Ng didn’t expressly rule out the possibility of further moves on the position player side, but she suggested it was more likely they’d look to add another arm to the bullpen.

“As I mentioned, the bat was first and foremost, and making sure that we secured that and what the parameters of that looked like,” Ng said (via De Nicola). “And now we’re definitely focused on relievers. I will say that I’ve gotten some nice reports on some of the guys here, so we might be able to pull from within as well.”

Among those internal possibilities is right-hander Nick Neidert. A well-regarded starting pitching prospect early in his career, Neidert has yet to find success in 44 MLB innings. The Marlins are deep in rotation options, and manager Don Mattingly told reporters today that Neidert will transition to a bullpen role (De Nicola link). Despite his profile as a changeup specialist — which theoretically should aid him against opposite-handed batters — Neidert has been hit at a .314/.444/.500 clip by lefties in the majors. He was similarly ineffective against southpaws in Triple-A last season (.306/.393/.471), and the bullpen role may afford Mattingly the opportunity to deploy him more often with the platoon advantage.

At present, the Marlins look likely to open the year with a starting five of Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Pablo López, Elieser Hernández and Jesús Luzardo. That’s a particularly strong top end, and Miami has high-upside young arms like Meyer, Edward Cabrera and Sixto Sánchez who could factor into the mix at some point.

Sánchez has already had some MLB success, but he missed the entire 2021 season due to injury and will also begin this year on the injured list as he recovers from last July’s shoulder surgery. De Nicola tweets that the fireballing 23-year-old is currently a third of the way through a six-week shutdown period. Given that he won’t even pick up a ball until at least a few weeks into the season, it seems likely he’ll spend a fairly significant amount of time on the IL to open the year.

Blue Jays Avoid Arbitration With Teoscar Hernandez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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The Blue Jays have settled on deals with their two most notable arbitration-eligible players. Corner outfielder Teoscar Hernández will receive $10.65MM, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link); first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in line for $7.9MM, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (on Twitter).

Hernández’s deal comes in narrowly above the $10MM projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. It’s a notable jump from last season’s $4.325MM salary, reflecting the excellent season the right-handed hitter just posted. Hernández hit .296/.346/.524 with 32 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 595 plate appearances last year. He’ll be arbitration-eligible one final time next winter before hitting free agency over the 2023-24 offseason.

Guerrero’s salary is an exact match for Swartz’s projection. It’s the 23-year-old’s first year of arbitration, and he lands his first significant payday after finishing as the AL MVP runner-up. Guerrero hit an incredible .311/.401/.601 with 48 homers over 698 plate appearances this past season, emerging as the kind of impact hitter the Toronto fanbase had been hoping for when Guerrero was the sport’s top prospect. He owns a career .289/.367/.517 line and remains under control through 2025 after qualifying for arbitration early via the Super Two process.

Toronto also agreed to a two-year deal to buy out Matt Chapman’s final couple seasons of arbitration this afternoon. That brings the Jays’ projected payroll to around $171MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.

AL Notes: Mariners, Blue Jays, Hernandez, Indians

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The offseason has already begun for 13 American League teams, with plenty of speculation about what some contenders and would-be contenders might have planned for winter moves.  The latest buzz from the AL…

  • The Mariners seemed poised for their most aggressive offseason in years, and The Athletic’s Corey Brock and MLBTR’s own Steve Adams took a look at the potential shape of Seattle’s next additions.  The proposal is a major signing (i.e. Marcus Semien) and then a few other prominent but somewhat lower-level free agents (such as Anthony DeSclafani, Jonathan Villar, Alex Wood), augmented with some trades to help bench depth and left-handed bullpen depth.  It remains to be seen whether or not the M’s will target any of these specific players, yet an offseason like this would certainly make Seattle a better team in 2022, and still leave payroll room for any other upgrades at the trade deadline.
  • Semien’s future was also one of several Blue Jays-related topics covered by The Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm in his latest reader mailbag, with Chisholm opining that both Semien and Robbie Ray will be playing elsewhere in 2022.  Should Semien leave, the Jays could address the hole at second base simply by moving their third base candidates (Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal) over to the keystone, and then acquiring a new third baseman.  In response to another question, Chisholm believes the Jays will probably hold off on extension talks with Teoscar Hernandez simply because the team is prioritizing more near-term moves, like adding more salary this winter and exploring a long-term deal with Jose Berrios.  Hernandez is still controlled through the 2023 season, and the Blue Jays could be content to just go year-to-year with Hernandez since outfield replacements are comparatively easy to find, even if few hitters at any position have equaled Hernandez’s production over the last two-plus seasons.
  • Speaking of finding outfielders, the Indians have long been looking for some stability on the grass, and the Tribe seemed to solidify at least one position when they acquired Myles Straw from the Astros at the trade deadline.  That leaves the corner outfield spots still to be addressed, and “since the summer months, the front office has fixated on consolidating its prospect capital in an attempt to land an established outfielder in a trade,” The Athletic’s Zack Meisel writes.  Cleveland would likely prefer to work out that trade sooner rather than later, as November 19 is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and the Tribe have a surplus of players who might require 40-man placement.  Whether or not an early trade can be found, however, isn’t clear, as Meisel notes that some around baseball feel teams will generally hold back on any major moves until there is more clarity about the next collective bargaining agreement.

Extension Candidate: Teoscar Hernandez

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To some extent, Teoscar Hernandez has been a bit of an overlooked figure on the Blue Jays roster.  He wasn’t part of the homegrown core of young talent, he isn’t exactly young himself since he turns 29 in October, and he wasn’t one of the major free agent signings that have played such key roles for the Jays in 2021 and (the team hopes) into the future.  Hernandez did get a turn in the spotlight when he was voted into the American League’s starting All-Star lineup this past July, marking some overdue recognition of a player who has quietly been one of baseball’s best hitters over the last 26 months.

If “26 months” seems like something of an arbitrary timeline, it is because Hernandez has a pretty clear line of demarcation at almost the exact midpoint of his career.  Prior to July 16, 2019, it wasn’t like Hernandez was a bad player, as he even hit 22 home runs for Toronto during the 2018 season.  However, power was much pretty much all Hernandez had to offer over the first 971 plate appearances of his MLB career, as he swatted 42 home runs but batted only .231/.292/.447.  This led to a 96 wRC+, and between that below-average offensive production and a very subpar outfield glove, there was some question about whether or not Hernandez could develop into anything more than a part-time player.

Needless to say, those questions have been answered.  Hernandez hit a home run against the Red Sox in that July 16 game and then hit two more homers the next day, essentially heralding his arrival as a first-rate hitter.  Over Hernandez’s last 916 plate appearances, he has hit 59 home runs and slashed .285/.343/.548 slash line.  His 136 wRC+ since July 16, 2019 has been topped by only 12 qualified hitters in all of baseball, and he is also tied for eighth in slugging percentage in that timeframe.

Hernandez made some mechanical changes to his swing during a minor league demotion earlier in 2019, though there isn’t really a simple “lightbulb switched on” reason why Hernandez was suddenly much more productive.  Looking at his numbers pre- and post-July 16, 2019, Hernandez’s walk rates have actually declined in the last 26 months, while his strikeout rates have gone from being almost league-worst to merely bad.

Hernandez always made plenty of hard contract, and with a .350 BABIP during the productive half of his career (and a .296 BABIP beforehand), there is some level of good fortune involved in Hernandez’s rise.  That said, Hernandez has helped himself by making more contact in general and hitting more line drives, with his above-average baserunning allowing him to translate that hard contact into hits.

Turning to the defensive side, Hernandez has worked to become a respectable outfielder after struggling so badly in the field earlier in his career.  Over 926 innings (707 in right field, 212 in left) this season, Hernandez has a +0.1 UZR/150 and +1 Outs Above Average, while the Defensive Runs Saved metric still gives him a -2 score.  While a Gold Glove probably isn’t in Hernandez’s future, he has at least proven that he isn’t a DH-only player — which could prove important to his future earning potential.

Hernandez was arbitration-eligible for the first time this season, and avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $4.325MM salary.  He’ll get a sizable raise coming this winter, and then another in the 2022-23 offseason before becoming eligible for free agency following the 2023 campaign.  Should Hernandez keep up his level of offense next year, he should earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $17MM in 2022-23 before hitting the open market prior to his age-31 season.

That is, unless the Blue Jays keep him off the open market by working out a contract extension.  With two-plus years remaining of control over Hernandez, the Jays aren’t in any immediate rush to make a decision one way or the other, and naturally quite a few other matters will need to be addressed in the interim.  Re-signing impending free agents Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray seem to be a priority for the club, and one would imagine the Jays will make a hard push to extend Jose Berrios (a free agent after 2022) given how they surrendered such a notable prospect package to acquire him from the Twins at the trade deadline.  Elsewhere on the extension front, Toronto might also look to land some long-term cost certainty over cornerstones Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, even though both are already controlled through the 2025 season.

In short, Hernandez might find himself somewhat overlooked again, if the Jays are content to go year-by-year.  However, there is some logic in the team exploring a longer deal with the slugger right now.  While the Blue Jays are one of the league’s best offensive teams, the lineup will take a big hit if Semien leaves, and the future depth has been a bit depleted — Cavan Biggio has struggled through an injury-plagued year, Rowdy Tellez was traded to the Brewers, and top prospect Austin Martin was dealt in the Berrios swap.

Speaking of the prospect ranks, the Toronto farm system has plenty of intriguing infielders and pitchers, but the Jays are short on young outfielders ready to make an impact at the big league level.  While that could change in the two years before Hernandez hits free agency, the lack of young outfield depth was one reason the Jays felt compelled to sign George Springer this past offseason.  There isn’t anyone immediately coming to push for Hernandez’s role, and in any case, Hernandez would seem to have a lot more job security than the much more inconsistent Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.  Grichuk is signed through 2023 but has provided below-average offense in Toronto, while Gurriel is controlled through 2024 but has been part of trade rumors in the past.

Only Hernandez himself (and maybe his agents at Republik Sports) would know the answer to this subject, but the outfielder also might be eager to lock in the first big payday of his professional career.  Hernandez made more in 2021 than he did in the rest of his career combined, as he received only a $20K bonus when first signing with the Astros back in 2011.  While $7MM+ in arb earnings is lined up for 2022, Hernandez might not want to run the risk of injury or a downturn in performance next season, so he could be open to a deal of fewer additional years, but maybe a higher average annual value in 2024 or 2025.

Grichuk’s four-year/$47MM deal in April 2019 is the only major multi-year extension of the Ross Atkins era, so there isn’t much of a hint about how this front office might approach a Hernandez extension, or if such a deal is even truly on their radar.  The trade that brought Hernandez to Toronto is already one of the canniest moves of Atkins’ tenure as GM, and that trade will only look better if a deal can be worked out so Hernandez can continue to be a big part of the Blue Jays lineup for years to come.

MLB Announces All-Star Starters

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Major League Baseball announced the starting lineups for the 2021 All-Star Game this evening. The starting lineups are determined by fan vote. This year’s All-Star Game will take place in Coors Field on Tuesday, July 13. The starting pitchers and reserves will be announced at a later date.

National League

American League

*On the 60-day injured list

Minor MLB Transactions: 6/20/21

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Blue Jays reinstated Teoscar Hernandez from the paternity list, optioned outfielder Jared Hoying to Triple-A to make room for Hernandez on the active list.  After welcoming his second child into the world, Hernandez will return to the Toronto lineup on Father’s Day and look to keep rolling at the plate (.298/.346/.485 with 10 homers in 214 PA).  Hoying’s contract was selected to the Jays roster to take Hernandez’s spot on Thursday, and Hoying appeared in two games, marking his first MLB action since the 2017 season as a member of the Rangers.

Blue Jays Place Rafael Dolis On 10-Day IL, Select Jared Hoying

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The Blue Jays announced some roster moves prior to tonight’s game with the Yankees, including the news that right-hander Rafael Dolis has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a right middle finger strain.  In addition, outfielder Teoscar Hernandez has been placed on the paternity list.  Filling the roster spots will be right-hander T.J. Zeuch (called up from Triple-A to start tonight’s game) and outfielder Jared Hoying, whose contract has been selected from Triple-A.  Carl Edwards Jr. has been moved from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL to open up a 40-man roster spot for Hoying.

The injury continues a tough season for Dolis, who has a 5.14 ERA/4.86 SIERA over 21 innings.  After overcoming some notable control issues (14% walk rate) to post a 1.50 ERA over 24 frames for Toronto in 2020, the free passes became even more of a problem this year, with Dolis walking 17.3% of all batters faced.  That is the ninth-highest walk rate of any hurler in baseball this season with at least 20 innings pitched.

Zeuch will get the start in place of Steven Matz, who is recovering from a positive (but asymptomatic) COVID-19 test.  Since the Jays have an off-day on Monday, this could potentially be the only game they need to fill if Matz is able to return as quickly as possible, though Zeuch could put himself in line for another start with a solid performance tonight.  The 25-year-old righty has 46 career MLB innings to his record since 2019, including a 6.75 ERA over 12 frames of work this season.  Zeuch has been used as a starter, reliever, and bulk pitcher (behind an opener) during his brief career, so the Blue Jays have some flexibility in how they’ll use him as Matz’s replacement.

Hoying signed a minor league contract with Toronto in May, and he now might be lined up for his first bit of big league action since 2017.  Hoying’s MLB resume consists of 74 games and a .220/.262/.288 slash line over 126 plate appearances with the Rangers in 2016-17.  After a brief stay in the Angels organization on a minor league deal, Hoying joined the Hanwha Eagles of the KBO, hitting .284/.345/.498 over 1249 PA in parts of three seasons in South Korea.

Blue Jays Designate Tanner Roark For Assignment

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The Blue Jays have designated right-hander Tanner Roark for assignment, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet was among those to report. They reinstated outfielder Teoscar Hernandez from the COVID-19 injured list and optioned fellow outfielder Jonathan Davis in corresponding moves.

This certainly isn’t the outcome Toronto expected when it signed Roark to a two-year, $24MM guarantee entering the 2020 season, but the deal will go down as a major mistake for the club. When the former National and Red joined the Blue Jays, he had five seasons of 165-plus innings on his resume and was at least a useful back-of-the-rotation starter. But Roark has been a liability as a member of the Jays, with whom he has recorded a horrific 6.75 ERA/5.26 SIERA with an 18.3 percent strikeout percentage and a 10.0 walk percentage in 54 2/3 innings. The 34-year-old has also seen his average fastball drop from the 92 mph range to below 91 since he signed with Toronto.

Roark threw just seven innings and made one start over three appearances this year for Toronto, and that small workload is damning when considering the injuries the team has dealt with in its rotation. The Jays will now have a week to trade Roark, pass him through waivers or release him. It seems likely they’ll wind up releasing Roark, who carries no appeal on a $12MM salary.

Hernandez, who hasn’t played since April 8, tested positive for COVID on April 13. He went an underwhelming 6-for-29 (five singles and a home run) with 14 strikeouts against no walks before going on the IL, though Hernandez was one of the majors’ top hitters a season ago. The Blue Jays have gone without Hernandez and center fielder/designated hitter George Springer for the vast majority of the season, but both are now back in their lineup.

COVID Notes: 4/23/21

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The latest coronavirus-related updates from around the game:

  • Second baseman Jose Altuve has cleared Major League Baseball’s COVID-19 protocols and will return to the Astros, manager Dusty Baker told Jake Kaplan of The Athletic and other reporters. Baker isn’t sure when Houston will activate Altuve, one of five Astros who went on the COVID list back on April 14. The team has since activated the other four (Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Martin Maldonado and Robel Garcia). Altuve had a down 2020 season, but the former AL MVP has gotten off to a fast start this year with a .318/.380/.455 over 50 plate appearances. Houston has started Aledmys Diaz and Alex De Goti at the keystone during Altuve’s absence.
  • Twins shortstop Andrelton Simmons has cleared the testing phase and can return to the team, manager Rocco Baldelli informed reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). Simmons stormed out to a .355/.474/.452 start in 38 PA this year before testing positive for the virus and landing on the IL on April 14. He’ll need time to ramp back up before he can return to the Twins’ lineup, Park notes. Jorge Polanco has received the lion’s share of playing time at short with Simmons out, and he’ll start there again Friday.
  • Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernandez has also gotten through the protocols, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets. Hernandez, who tested positive two weeks ago, has returned to taking batting practice and hitting in the case. Manager Charlie Montoyo said he’s hopeful Hernandez will be back in Toronto’s lineup soon.

COVID Notes: 4/18/21

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The latest on the coronavirus:

Latest Updates

Earlier Notes

  • Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernández was reported to have tested positive for COVID-19 on April 13. Fortunately, Hernández is no longer feeling symptoms of the virus, reports Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun (Twitter link). He’ll have to remain in quarantine for ten days from the time of his positive test under the league’s 2021 health and safety protocols. That he’s currently asymptomatic is obviously good news for Hernández personally and seems to bode well for his chances of returning to play in relatively short order once his mandatory quarantine is up.
  • Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull has been in the health and safety protocols for almost a month, having first been placed on the COVID-19 injured list on March 20. He has been building back arm strength in recent days, though, and manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News) Turnbull could return to action early next week. It’s possible the Tigers will pivot to a six-man rotation at that point, adding Turnbull to a group currently consisting of Matthew Boyd, Michael Fulmer, José Ureña, Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize. Hinch said the organization hasn’t yet made that decision. If the Tigers were to go back to a five-man starting staff, Fulmer (who began the season in relief) or Ureña (who has struggled over three starts) would seem the most likely options to be bumped to the bullpen to make room for Turnbull. [UPDATE: Turnbull will start on Wednesday against the Pirates, per Jason Beck of MLB.com (Twitter link).]
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