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Rangers To Select Curtis Terry

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The Rangers are expected to select the contract of first baseman Curtis Terry to the big league roster this weekend, according to Kennedi Landry of mlb.com.

Terry, a 13th round pick in the 2015 draft, is currently ranked the 26th best prospect in the Rangers’ system, according to MLB Pipeline. FanGraphs has him further down, at number 61 among Texas farmhands. The 24-year-old first baseman is having an excellent year at the plate. Through 269 plate appearances at Triple-A, he’s slashing .294/.375/.583, producing a wRC+ of 129. This is his first year in the upper levels of the minors, having reached High-A in 2019, before the 2020 minor league season was wiped out.

Terry has consistently put up great offensive numbers in his minor league career, with that being his most exciting tool. The scouting report at MLB Pipeline describes him as “an all-bat player” because he is a “well below-average runner with limited range at first base.” With a profile like that, Terry will have to be well above-average hitter to stick in the big leagues. The scouting report at FanGraphs has similar concerns about the overall profile but notes that he could have a saving grace with “his excellent breaking ball recognition.”

For the Rangers, there’s no harm in calling him up and seeing how he handles big-league pitching. The team is in last place in the AL West and fully in rebuild mode. Nate Lowe has been getting the bulk of first base playing time this year and has been hitting well, with a wRC+ of 115 on the year. But since the team doesn’t have a regular DH and has been using that lineup slot on a rotating basis, it should be easy enough to get both Lowe and Terry into the lineup when they want to. And speculatively speaking, it’s possible they could split time on a platoon basis, as Lowe hits from the left side and Terry from the right. It’s also possible that the lineup could lose Joey Gallo this week, as he has been one of the hottest names on the trading block this year, with the Padres and Yankees among the team to have known interest.

Regardless of whether a trade is in the works or not, a transaction of some kind will be required since Terry is not currently on the 40-man roster.

Dodgers Considering Ian Kennedy

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The Dodgers are interested in acquiring Ian Kennedy, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

This isn’t terribly surprising news, as every contending team is always interested in improving their pitching arsenal as the trade deadline approaches. What is surprising is that the Dodgers find themselves three games behind the Giants in the NL West, a team that few picked as division favorites at the start of the season. And that divisional alignment is at least somewhat attributable to the fact that the Dodgers have lost to the Giants by blowing ninth-inning leads the past two nights.

Overall, the bullpen hasn’t been a glaring weakness for the club this year. The Dodgers’ relievers, as a whole, have an ERA of 3.73, the 10th best in the Majors. But they’ve also taken some hits lately, with Jimmy Nelson and Scott Alexander heading to the Injured List. David Price has also had to move from the bullpen to the rotation, in order to cover for the recent injury to Clayton Kershaw.

For Kennedy, it seems to be a foregone conclusion that he will be changing jerseys in the coming week. He is a free agent at year’s end and is currently playing for a Rangers team that is 35-62, behind every team in the American League except the Orioles. Thus far, he’s pitched 31 1/3 innings for Texas, accumulating 15 saves with an ERA of 2.59. Advanced metrics are somewhat skeptical, with xERA, FIP and xFIP pegging him at 3.40, 3.80 and 3.88, respectively. But he has excellent strikeout and walk rates of 26.8% and 5.7%.

Kenley Jansen has been the Dodgers closer for a decade now, and will probably continue in that role. But there are reasons for pessimism in his profile this year. Despite 21 saves, an ERA of 3.05 and a strikeout rate of 27.2%, Jansen has a ghastly walk rate of 16%, more than double his career rate. That’s probably why some advanced metrics think his ERA is a mirage, with xFIP placing him at 4.79 and SIERA at 4.56.

It’s possible this is just small sample noise, since we’re only talking about 38 1/3 innings and Jansen’s Statcast profile still looks quite healthy. But since Jansen is in the last year of his contract and will be 34 years old by season’s end, the Dodgers don’t have to be invested in Jansen for the long term and could certainly pivot to an alternative such as Kennedy if they felt they had to.

On the money side, Kennedy’s is playing on a salary of $2.15MM this year, leaving less than a million still to be paid out. The Dodgers don’t have to worry about tiptoeing under the luxury tax, since they’ve already blown past the top threshold of $250MM. (Roster Resource currently has their luxury tax calculation at $262MM.) But that means that they’re paying a whopping 62.5% tax on any additional salary they take on, which could make a modest contract like Kennedy’s more appealing than a costlier addition such as Craig Kimbrel, who is still owed over $6MM of his $16MM salary this year.

Latest On Padres’ Trade Targets

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Locked in a tight NL West race, the Padres are known to be looking for starting pitching and lineup help at the deadline.  This leaves a wide range of possibilities open for an aggressive general manager like A.J. Preller, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears that Preller’s front office has “has talked with other teams about scenarios ranging from the seemingly obvious to the implausible.”

That gamut might be reflected in two hitters Acee links to the Padres, as he reiterates that the club continues to be interested in Joey Gallo, long mentioned as a target for San Diego.  Beyond Gallo, however, Acee also notes that the Padres were one of the NL teams who had an interest in Nelson Cruz, before Minnesota sent the veteran slugger to the Rays in a trade earlier tonight.  It would’ve been bold to put Cruz (a DH-only player for the last three seasons) back in line for regular outfield duty, which might be why the Twins ultimately found the most interested suitor in an AL team that could deploy Cruz in his normal DH spot.

On the pitching front, the Padres are looking for multiple arms to aid a rotation that had been hit with injuries.  Acee writes that the targets are “both a potential innings eater and a starter who could be a viable option to start early in a playoff series.”  The Padres’ talks with the Rangers and Twins also involved such names as Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kenta Maeda.  San Diego has also had interest in Rockies right-hander Jon Gray and Royals left-hander Danny Duffy, though it is unclear if Duffy is still a consideration after he was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier this week.

Gray, Duffy, and Lyles are all pure rentals, as free agents after the season.  Duffy and Gray have pretty comparable overall metrics, and while Duffy’s 2.51 ERA is significantly better than Gray’s 3.68 ERA, Gray has 93 innings pitched to Duffy’s 61, as Duffy is in the midst of his second IL stint of the season.  Duffy also has full no-trade protection but the California native might be open to agreeing to be dealt back to his home state.  Gray has no such trade protection, though the Rockies’ willingness to move a notable player to a division rival could be a potential obstacle.

The biggest issue with acquiring Lyles is likely that the 30-year-old simply hasn’t pitched well over his two years in Texas, posting a 5.84 ERA in 165 innings since the start of the 2020 season.  A change of scenery could help Lyles regain the effectiveness he displayed in 2018-19, and Lyles is a familiar face for Preller, as the righty pitched for San Diego during the 2017 and 2018 campaigns.

A trade could also help Maeda escape the doldrums of a tough 2021 season, though the right-hander far from struggled in his first year in Minnesota, finishing second in 2020 AL Cy Young Award voting.  Maeda missed a little over three weeks with a groin injury this year, and has pitched better over his last three starts, with a 1.69 ERA over his last 16 innings.

Maeda is no stranger to the NL West after spending his first four MLB seasons with the Dodgers, and he also has the most contractual control of any of the five pitchers known to be on San Diego’s radar.  Maeda is owed only $3MM in guaranteed money in each of the 2022 and 2023 season, but several millions more are available in incentives based on innings pitched and games started.  The overall price tag is still quite reasonable, and as much as Maeda hasn’t been a front-of-the-rotation type in 2021, his contract and his past track record make him a good trade chip.  Of course, this assumes that Minnesota would be open to a trade for anything more than a very generous offer, as the Twins are reportedly not very interested in dealing anything beyond rental players.

Gibson is also controlled beyond 2021, as he still has a full year remaining (worth $7MM) on the three-year, $28MM free agent deal he inked with the Rangers in the 2019-20 offseason.  With a 2.86 ERA over his first 107 innings, Gibson is on pace for a career year, and he already was named an All-Star for the first time in his nine MLB seasons.  Gibson doesn’t miss many bats, however, and both his Statcast profile and overall career numbers don’t much help the argument that he can keep up this borderline ace production over the course of a full season, or into 2022.

What the Padres would be willing to give up for any of these players (or any deadline target) is still up in the air.  The club is close to the $210MM luxury tax threshold already but they reportedly have the ability to cross that threshold, so money might not be the most pressing issue for deadline acquisitions.  In regards to moving prospects, Acee hears that the Padres aren’t willing to move any of their top four minor leaguers — presumably MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Luis Campusano, or Robert Hassell — and might even look to add some more young talent in deals, though obviously the Padres wouldn’t be “deadline sellers” by any stretch of the imagination.

Speculatively, San Diego could look into some type of complex multi-player deal that would see them acquire a package that includes at least one notable MLB player that can help them win now, as well as a minor leaguer or two.  The inclusion of prospects could perhaps make it easier for the Padres to move one of their better minor leaguers as part of a trade.

Giants Interested In Danny Duffy

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Though Danny Duffy was placed on the Royals’ 10-day injured list on Tuesday, the Giants still have trade interest in the veteran southpaw, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.  “Injuries don’t give San Francisco much pause in general,” Slusser notes, citing the team’s signing of John Brebbia in the offseason as Brebbia was recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Naturally, the Giants’ interest will hinge on just exactly how hurt Duffy is, considering that this is the second time he has visited the IL this season with a left flexor strain.  That earlier IL stint sidelined Duffy for close to six weeks, so if a similar recovery period is required, he won’t be available for the Royals, Giants, or any other club until the first week of September.  This still makes Duffy a potential difference-maker in a pennant race, though that assumes that he’ll still be effective after this latest layoff, and it also assumes that he won’t need a longer time to heal up considering that this is a recurring injury.

It adds yet another wrinkle to Duffy’s interesting case a trade candidate.  While the Statcast metrics haven’t been great for the 32-year-old, Duffy has strong bottom-line numbers, with a 2.51 ERA and an above-average 25.8% strikeout rate over 61 innings.  He is also a free agent after the season and thus a seemingly logical trade chip for the struggling Royals, though Duffy has full no-trade protection as a 10-and-5 player, and he has been public about his desire to remain with the Royals for the entirety of his career.

However, there has been some indication that Duffy (born in Goleta, California) might be willing to accept a trade to the West Coast.  As such, teams like the Padres, Dodgers, and now the Giants have reportedly been linked to Duffy, though it remains to be seen if the other California teams also wouldn’t balk at acquiring an injured player.  As Slusser notes, Duffy’s injury surely lowers the Royals’ asking price in a trade, so a team like San Francisco could potentially see him as something of a buy-low lottery ticket acquisition.

In other Giants trade rumblings, Slusser reports that the Cardinals and Rangers have had scouts recently watching the Giants, so some potential trade chips on those teams (if St. Louis indeed decides to sell at the deadline) could be on San Francisco’s radar.  On the pitching end, Kyle Gibson, Kwang Hyun Kim, or even longtime Cardinal Adam Wainwright stand out.  Slusser notes that the outfield is a target area for the Giants, so Rangers slugger Joey Gallo would be a major fit.

Padres Willing To Exceed Luxury Tax At Trade Deadline

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It might have seemed silly a few years ago to suggest that the Padres would soon have to make any decisions regarding the luxury tax — San Diego only reached $100MM in total payroll once prior to the 2020 season — but the Friars now find themselves roughly $6MM from the $210MM luxury barrier. And while many teams who are so close to the tax line are loath to actually cross the threshold, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that Padres ownership is willing to make that concession as the trade deadline approaches.

Padres general manager A.J. Preller recently indicated that he’d like to upgrade his lineup in an effort to coax more consistent production out of the group, and the Padres have struggled to unexpected levels in the rotation. Blake Snell hasn’t pitched up to his previous standards, and the Friars are currently without Dinelson Lamet (forearm inflammation), Ryan Weathers (fractured ankle) and Adrian Morejon (Tommy John surgery). Last summer’s big-ticket acquisition, Mike Clevinger, underwent Tommy John surgery over the winter, so it’s been known for quite awhile that he wouldn’t be a factor in 2021.

The Padres have consistently been connected to Rangers slugger Joey Gallo, whom Preller knows quite well from his time as a Rangers assistant general manager. Gallo would be an upgrade in right field over Wil Myers, and since he’s controllable through the 2022 season, he’d be a multi-year improvement for the lineup. Gallo is hitting .233/.391/.510 and pacing MLB in total walks and walk percentage, and he’s been one of the game’s hottest hitters since early June: .282/.444/.748 in his past 133 plate appearances.

That said, Gallo himself wouldn’t take the Padres over the tax barrier, and he’s just one of multiple possibilities. Passan suggests more broadly that the Padres are open to adding a “significant” bat (Gallo included). Several others would fit that billing as well. The Marlins and Cubs are expected to trade Starling Marte and Kris Bryant before the trade deadline. The Mariners and the Orioles will be getting offers on Mitch Haniger and Trey Mancini, even if the preference for both clubs would be to hold onto them. If the Reds’ current slide continues, it’s at least feasible that they’d consider deals involving Nick Castellanos, who can opt out of his contract at season’s end.

Regardless of which bat the Padres zero in on, it’ll likely be one of multiple moves the Padres make, given their aggressive front office and the simultaneous need in the rotation.

Draft Signings: 7/20/21

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Today’s notable signings of Day Two draftees:

  • The Reds have signed second-rounder Andrew Abbott to a $1.3MM deal, reports Carlos Collazo of Baseball America (Twitter link). That’s just a bit below the slot value that accompanies the 53rd overall pick. Abbott, a senior left-hander from the University of Virginia, gets good life on his low-mid 90’s fastball and missed plenty of bats in one of college baseball’s top conferences. Abbott’s 162 strikeouts this season trailed only top ten draftees Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker in Division I baseball.
  • The Rangers have agreed to a $1MM deal with third-rounder Cameron Cauley, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). That’s a bit north of the $857.4K slot value associated with the 73rd selection. A high school shortstop from Texas, the right-handed hitting Cauley was ranked #84 on Baseball America’s pre-draft rankings. BA writes that the Texas Tech commit is a good athlete with advanced bat-to-ball skills but limited power projection.
  • The Cardinals have signed Competitive Balance Round B selection Ryan Holgate for $875K, reports Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s a bit below the slot value that comes with the #70 selection. A power-hitting corner outfielder from the University of Arizona, Holgate checked in at #107 on BA’s rankings.
  • The Padres inked Competitive Balance Round B selection Robert Gasser for $884.2K, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s full slot value for the #71 overall pick. A left-handed pitcher from the University of Houston, Gasser checked in at #63 on BA’s rankings. He attracted attention from evaluators after experiencing a velocity spike into the mid-90’s this year to accompany a solid slider.
  • The Braves went well overslot to sign seventh-rounder A.J. Smith-Shawver. The righty from a Texas high school received a $997.5K bonus, reports Callis. That’s nearly $800K above slot to convince him to pass on a two-sport commitment (baseball and football) to Texas Tech. Smith-Shawver landed at #318 in BA’s rankings, drawing praise for a mid-90’s fastball and solid curveball.

Latest On Yankees’ Search For Outfield Help

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The Yankees’ recent pair of wins against the division-leading Red Sox helped to keep their postseason hopes alive, and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman writes that they’re looking for adding outfield help as the trade deadline approaches. Specifically, the Yankees would like to acquire someone who can handle center field.

Center field is an obvious, glaring need in the Bronx. Yankees center fielders are hitting just .183/.290/.309 on the season, and the resulting 70 wRC+ ranks 29th among the 30 MLB clubs. Aaron Hicks is out for the season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn tendon sheath in his wrist, and the subsequent cast of replacements hasn’t picked up the slack.

New York was already reported to have shown interest in Marlins center fielder Starling Marte, who is likely to be traded now that Miami’s hopes of getting him to sign an extension have been dashed. (Given the reported three years and roughly $30MM term, that should come as no surprise.) Sherman again connects the Yankees to Joey Gallo, who has some center field experience, and he adds that they’ve “wondered” about Minnesota’s Max Kepler — another strong defensive right fielder who has some experience playing center.

Marte would represent a pure rental for the Yankees — albeit an excellent one. He’s slashed at a .288/.389/.457 clip so far in 2021 while clubbing seven home runs and swiping 19 bases along the way. He’s owed about $5MM of this year’s $12.5MM salary between now and season’s end, although by the deadline, that sum would dip to about $4.37MM.

From a luxury tax standpoint, Marte is in the final year of a contract that wound up paying him $51MM over an eight-year term — an annual rate of $6.375MM. Prorating that luxury hit for the remainder of the season would mean about $2.22MM at the deadline or about $2.57MM as of today. Sherman notes that the Yankees have “about” $3MM in luxury breathing room — Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez has them around $3.5MM shy of the threshold — so Marte could technically fit into the budget without taking the Yankees over the line.

Both Gallo and Kepler are imperfect fits. Gallo is the far likelier of the two to be traded and, at $6.2MM in 2021, is a near-match with Marte in terms of luxury calculations. He’d give the Yankees a much-needed left-handed bat (unlike Marte), but he’s a better defender in right field and will likely have one of the higher asking prices among viable trade chips in the coming weeks. Gallo would add another three-true-outcome type of hitter to a Yankees lineup that leads MLB in walk rate and ranks ninth in homers and strikeout rate. Gallo is controlled via arbitration through the 2022 season.

Kepler, 28, is in the third season of a five-year, $35MM contract. He’s owed about $2.62MM through season’s end and is still owed $6.75MM in 2022 and $8.5MM in 2023. There’s a $10MM option with a $1MM buyout for the 2024 season.

Kepler missed a month with a hamstring injury earlier in the year and is batting just .207/.296/.427 in 243 plate appearances on the year. Kepler looked to be emerging from that slump with a hot few weeks after returning from the injured list in June, but he’s fallen back into an 0-for-15 skid at the plate. At his best, Kepler is an impact defender with a strong walk rate and plenty of power, as evidenced by his .252/.336/.519, 36-homer season back in 2019. The Twins probably don’t love the idea of selling low on him, and the Yankees may not want to roll the dice on a rebound for a currently struggling player anyhow.

If  anything, the mention of Kepler is interesting for the fact that it illustrates the wide net being cast by the Yankees in their search. Out-of-the-box candidates figure to emerge — particularly if the team plans to remain below the luxury threshold. Owner Hal Steinbrenner recently voiced a willingness to cross that barrier, but the Yankees’ offseason moves were all made with the idea of avoiding the tax.

Rangers Reinstate Sam Huff From 60-Day IL, Designate Tyler Phillips

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The Rangers have designated right-hander Tyler Phillips for assignment, the club announced.  The move opens up a 40-man roster spot for top prospect Sam Huff, who has been activated from the 60-day injured list and been optioned to Double-A Frisco.

Huff underwent knee surgery back in April, and it seems quite possible that without that injury, he might already be back in the majors.  Huff has yet to play at Triple-A ball and he has only 14 plate appearances at the Double-A level, but the Rangers thought enough of his performance at their alternate training site last season that they promoted Huff to the big leagues in September.  From there, Huff hit three home runs and posted a 1.136 OPS over 33 PA, providing a tantalizing glimpse into his potential as a slugging cornerstone of a future Rangers lineup.

It remains to be seen if Huff will get any time at catcher, as he has played exclusively as a first baseman this season.  It could be that Texas is just easing Huff back into things in the wake of his knee surgery, and he’ll eventually get some action behind the plate before the year is out.  Assuming Huff continues to rake at Double-A and then at Triple-A, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him receive another September call-up before the year is out, as the Rangers could then be eyeing him as a candidate for more regular big-league duty for 2022.

A 16th-round pick for Texas in the 2015 draft, Phillips posted solid numbers in the lower levels of the farm system but began to hit some struggles in Double-A, and his Triple-A debut this season has been even more problematic.  Phillips has a 9.90 ERA over 10 Triple-A frames, with more walks (12) than strikeouts (11).  These control issues are a troubling new development for Phillips, as limiting walks was a strength for the right-hander over his first five pro seasons.

Drew Robinson Announces Retirement

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Former major league outfielder Drew Robinson announced his retirement this evening. His full statement can be found on Twitter.

That Robinson is in position to announce his retirement from affiliated ball is nothing short of remarkable. As he detailed to Jeff Passan of ESPN for an article in February, Robinson attempted suicide in April 2020 amidst a battle with depression. The incident left his right eye beyond repair, but he survived and resumed his career against all odds, signing a minor league deal with the Giants last offseason.

As Robinson explains in his retirement announcement, he’s transitioning to a new role in the San Francisco organization as a mental health advocate. He’ll now be tasked with “(helping) other players address their emotional well-being more comfortably.”

Robinson did not return to the majors with the Giants, but he appeared in the big leagues with the Rangers and Cardinals between 2017-19. He played an even 100 games at the highest level, hitting .202/.296/.359 with nine home runs. There’s no doubt Robinson’s impact on MLB and its fans has gone and will continue to go far beyond his on-field performance. MLBTR congratulates Robinson on making a successful return to professional baseball and wishes him all the best in his new role.

The Rangers’ Unexpected All-Star

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The Rangers will have three representatives at tonight’s All-Star Game. Joey Gallo has been there before, and the slugger’s rare combination of light-tower power and athleticism could earn him a few more nominations before the end of his career. Kyle Gibson’s dominance this season has been surprising, but he’s an eight-year veteran with a generally solid track record. Few would’ve projected him to be an All-Star entering the season, particularly coming off a down 2020, but he was the team’s Opening Day starter. It wasn’t crazy to think he’d have a bounceback year.

Adolis García making the All-Star Game would’ve been inconceivable three months ago. He wasn’t even on the Rangers roster to start the year, having been designated for assignment so they could sign Mike Foltynewicz. In February, all twenty-nine other clubs were offered the opportunity to add García for nothing more than a 40-man roster spot and the standard $50K waiver fee. Each one passed. So García reported to Spring Training as a non-roster invitee and began the year at the alternate training site.

In retrospect, each team made an error in judgment in not putting in a claim for García (as did the Rangers for designating him in the first place). It’s hard to assign too much blame around the league, though. At the time of his designation, García was soon to turn 28 years old with all of 24 major league plate appearances under his belt. An obvious combination of power and speed had made him a fairly well-regarded prospect in Cuba and in his days in the Cardinals system, but scouting reports also came with question marks about his plate approach. His 2019 season in the minors did him no favors in that regard; García popped 32 homers and swiped 14 bags, but he also reached base at just a .301 clip and posted extremely concerning strikeout and walk rates (30.1% and 4.2%, respectively).

Given his first extended big league run after being re-selected in mid-April, García has continued to actualize his physical tools at the highest level. The right-handed hitting outfielder is surprisingly tied for eighth in the majors with 22 home runs this season. He’s sporting an impressive .270/.312/.527 line across 333 plate appearances. He leads all rookie position players in FanGraphs WAR and looks to be the midseason favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year award.

It’s an open question whether García can continue to succeed at this level. His MLB strikeout and walk rates this season (30.6% and 4.8%) are eerily similar to those he posted during his last Triple-A campaign. He’s frequently chasing pitches outside the strike zone, and his 17.5% swinging strike rate is ninth-highest among the 231 hitters with 200+ plate appearances.

There’s still some chance García’s aggressiveness undercuts his production moving forward. Some players have enough power and athleticism to succeed in spite of a poor approach. It’s possible García’s that kind of talent, but he’ll need more than half a season of great play to cement himself within that rare group.

Whether or not García’s performance takes a step back in the second half, there’s no taking away what he’s accomplished to this point. To earn an All-Star selection just five months after clearing waivers is an incredible achievement. Among the players whose talents will be on display tonight, García’s had arguably the most meteoric rise.

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