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Poll: Who Will Win The 2021 Home Run Derby?

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A busy week for Major League Baseball kicked off Sunday with the Futures Game during the day and the first 36 picks of the 2021 MLB Draft in the evening. It’ll continue with Day Two of the draft today and the annual Home Run Derby this evening.

Tonight’s eight-player field consists of top seed Shohei Ohtani, followed (in order of MLB’s seeding) by Joey Gallo, Matt Olson, Salvador Perez, Pete Alonso, Trey Mancini, Trevor Story and Juan Soto. One half of the bracket will see Ohtani/Soto and Perez/Alonso in first-round matchups, while the other half will see Gallo/Story and Olson/Mancini. We’ll take a very brief look at each participating slugger’s season to date (sorted by their first-round matchup) before opening up polls on who fans are rooting for and who they expect to take home the trophy.

  • Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH, Angels: Ohtani has been the talk of baseball in 2021, leading MLB with 33 home runs while also pitching to a 3.49 ERA with a 30.7 percent strikeout rate on the mound.
    • .279/.364/.698, 33 home runs
    • 93.7 mph average exit velocity, 119 mph max exit velo, 26 percent barrel rate
  • Juan Soto, OF, Nationals: Soto hasn’t matched his 2019 power output, but he’s the youngest entrant in the field and has been one of baseball’s elite hitters from the moment he homered in his first big league at-bat back in 2018.
    • .283/.407/.445, 11 home runs
    • 92.6 mph average exit velo, 115.3 mph max, 10.8 percent barrel rate

—

  • Joey Gallo, OF, Rangers: After a slow start, Gallo looks well on his way to another 40-homer season. He’s hitting .308/.479/.838 with 15 home runs since June 4.
    • .239/.402/.522, 24 home runs
    • 92.4 mph average exit velo, 115.1 mph max, 19.6 percent barrel rate
  • Trevor Story, SS, Rockies:  Story will take the field hoping for an upset win that could serve as something of a Coors Field farewell with the trade deadline and free agency looming.
    • .249/.323/.442, 11 home runs
    • 90.7 mph average exit velo, 110.2 mph max, 9.2 percent barrel rate

—

  • Salvador Perez, C, Royals: The seven-time All-Star gets better with age. He’s ripped 32 home runs in just 519 plate appearances dating back to the beginning of the 2020 campaign.
    • .275/.300/.501, 21 home runs
    • 93 mph average exit velo, 114.2 mph max, 14.3 percent barrel rate
  • Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets: Alonso will defend his 2019 title — there was no 2020 Home Run Derby — in the midst of a hot streak. Eleven of the Polar Bear’s 17 big flies have come since Memorial Day weekend.
    • .250/.328/.478, 17 home runs
    • 92.7 mph average exit velo, 117.1 mph max, 15.7 percent barrel rate

—

  • Matt Olson, 1B, Athletics: Since 2017, the underrated Olson leads all full-time first basemen with 126 home runs, and he’s on pace to top his career-high mark of 36.
    • .282/.371/.567, 23 home runs
    • 92 mph average exit velo, 115.3 mph max, 14.4 percent barrel rate
  • Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Orioles: That Mancini was able to return to the field at all after being diagnosed with Stage 3 colon cancer in early 2020 is remarkable; a derby win would be a feel-good story for baseball fans everywhere.
    • .256/.331/.460, 16 home runs
    • 88.5 mph average exit velo, 113.9 mph max, 12.9 percent barrel rate

Who do you want to see win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)

Who do you WANT to win the Home Run Derby?
Shohei Ohtani 28.93% (4,206 votes)
Pete Alonso 24.09% (3,503 votes)
Trey Mancini 15.40% (2,240 votes)
Joey Gallo 12.48% (1,815 votes)
Juan Soto 5.55% (807 votes)
Matt Olson 5.42% (788 votes)
Trevor Story 4.36% (634 votes)
Salvador Perez 3.77% (548 votes)
Total Votes: 14,541

Who do you think will win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)

Who do you think WILL win the Home Run Derby?
Pete Alonso 30.77% (3,288 votes)
Shohei Ohtani 28.25% (3,019 votes)
Joey Gallo 20.29% (2,168 votes)
Matt Olson 5.67% (606 votes)
Juan Soto 4.67% (499 votes)
Trey Mancini 4.29% (458 votes)
Trevor Story 3.80% (406 votes)
Salvador Perez 2.26% (242 votes)
Total Votes: 10,686

Padres Appear Set For (Another) Active Trade Deadline

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The Padres, by most measures, are a solid offensive club. San Diego ranks tenth among MLB teams in total runs scored (428) and in wRC+ (101). They’re 13th in team batting average, eighth in team on-base percentage and 13th in slugging percentage. Throw out the pitching staff to focus only on position players, and they jump to 11th in average, sixth in OBP, 11th in slugging and sixth in wRC+. There’s room for improvement, but the lineup isn’t some kind of fatal flaw for this club.

Despite a mostly solid offense, however, general manager A.J. Preller suggested he’ll be looking for areas to bolster the lineup in the coming weeks (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). Preller, while noting that some players on his club have enjoyed “real good performances” so far in 2021, noted that the group as a whole has yet to “click” in the same manner it did in 2020. “Those will be the things we’ll be talking about over the next couple weeks,” Preller told the Padres beat this weekend.

It’s certainly not an impassioned declaration that major changes are coming, but it’s notable this time of year when any top decision-maker publicly cites potential areas of improvement. Preller didn’t list a specific position of focus, but looking up and down the lineup, there are a few spots that are obviously of greater need than others.

Chief among them is at first base, where Eric Hosmer is again in the midst of an underwhelming showing at the plate. The 31-year-old is hitting .266/.323/.375, which isn’t egregiously poor but is still below league average (95 wRC+). In right field, Wil Myers is hitting .253/.330/.428, which is solidly above-average, but his bat faded after a monster showing during the season’s first month.

Meanwhile, Austin Nola has missed most of the season on the injured list, which has contributed to the Padres having one of baseball’s least-productive catching units in the game. The bench is also thin. Offseason multi-year deals for Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar have yet to pay dividends, and the Friars continue to dedicate a roster spot to the out-of-options Jorge Mateo despite the fact that he’s only tallied 88 plate appearances in 52 games (with a .195/.241/.280 batting line). Nola recently embarked on a rehab assignment, so the Padres may have some hope for reinforcements behind the plate sooner than later.

The rest of the Padres’ lineup has been excellent. Tommy Pham has shaken off a slow start and rebounded with a .301/.402/.526 showing in his past couple hundred plate appearances. Trent Grisham has continued his 2020 breakout, as has Jake Cronenworth. Manny Machado is hitting .267/.345/.479 with 15 home runs, and Fernando Tatis Jr. has clubbed 28 home runs while slashing .286/.364/.686. None are going to be displaced by a trade acquisition, barring some sort of injury.

It’s worth noting that Myers has been swinging a better bat over the past couple weeks as well, but inconsistent production has been a recurring theme throughout the life of his contract extension in San Diego. A player capable of splitting time between the outfield corners and first base would make plenty of sense for San Diego, as would a utility option that could at least be expected to provide something resembling average production.

This morning, Dennis Lin of The Athletic once again links the Padres to Rangers slugger Joey Gallo, noting that Gallo’s ability to play first base is part of his appeal for San Diego. The Rangers’ asking price on Gallo, however, is characterized as “daunting” and can only have increased after Gallo has become the poster boy for offense in the post-Spider Tack crackdown; since June 4, Gallo is hitting .308/.479/.838 with 15 long balls in 121 plate appearances.

Gallo surely isn’t the only potential trade target who could contribute at first base and in the outfield corners, of course. The Cubs are widely expected to shop Kris Bryant now that they’ve shifted to a deadline seller, and Baltimore’s Trey Mancini has been a possible trade candidate all season. The Marlins’ Adam Duvall is primarily an outfielder but has a few hundred innings of first base experience.

The list of potential offensive needs on its own would position the Padres as a potential feature team at this year’s deadline, but that’s only the beginning of their needs. Starting pitching was expected to be a strength for this club, but Padres starters are a more middle-of-the-pack unit than the dominant one expected after a series of flashy offseason pickups.

Blake Snell hasn’t pitched up to expectations, and Joe Musgrove has tailed off a bit after a dominant start. Yu Darvish is skipping a well-deserved All-Star nod to nurse a back injury that recently landed him on the injured list. Young Ryan Weathers just departed the team’s first-half finale with a leg/foot injury. Adrian Morejon had Tommy John surgery earlier in the year. And as Lin points out, top prospect MacKenzie Gore is back at the team’s Spring Training complex for further work on his mechanics after a rough start to the season in Triple-A.

While Weathers hasn’t technically been placed on the IL yet, the only healthy starters on the Padres’ roster at the moment are Musgrove, Chris Paddack and the recently promoted Reiss Knehr. Considering the veritable embarrassment of riches with which the Padres entered the season, from a rotation standpoint, it’s a bit remarkable to suggest they’ll be in the market for more starters at the deadline — but that indeed appears to be the case.

Preller indicated to Lin and others that the first steps in patching the rotation would be internal promotions (e.g. Knehr), but the GM also acknowledged that he and his staff will “keep talking to clubs” to see what’s out there in terms of upgrades. There’s no indication that payroll or the luxury tax would be any sort of issue, but it’s at least worth noting that after so many gaudy acquisitions in recent years, the Friars are sitting about $6MM shy of the $210MM threshold.

A year ago, the Padres were baseball’s most active deadline team, striking deals for Mike Clevinger, Austin Nola, Austin Adams, Mitch Moreland and Jason Castro. Preller followed that up with a trade-happy offseason as well, scooping up Darvish, Snell and Musgrove in an effort to create a dominant rotation that could pair with a deep lineup.

Given all that activity, it probably wouldn’t be a surprise to see yet another whirlwind trade season from Preller even with a healthy rotation and a fully operational lineup. However, the broad slate of setbacks on the starting staff and some uneven performances at first base, in right field and off the bench leave the Padres with a wide variety of paths to improve this club. And history tells us that Preller isn’t likely to sit back and hope his organizational depth will save the day.

Home Run Derby Field Finalized

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The eight-man field is set for the 2021 Home Run Derby. Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani, Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, Orioles first baseman Trey Mancini, Royals catcher Salvador Pérez, Athletics first baseman Matt Olson, Nationals outfielder Juan Soto and Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo will compete in the event.

Ohtani has been perhaps baseball’s biggest story in 2021. The two-way star has a league-best thirty-one home runs and looks like the early favorite to win the AL MVP award. Alonso, who won the most recent Derby in 2019, will be looking to defend his title. The right-handed slugger has popped fifteen homers this year. Story figures to be the fan favorite with All-Star festivities taking place in Denver. The 28-year-old has hit 11 longballs this season. It’ll be an emotional sight to see Mancini on such a big stage. He missed all of last season battling colon cancer but made it back this year and has popped fifteen homers.

Pérez has been the game’s most powerful catcher. He leads all backstops with twenty homers and he’ll get the starting nod behind the plate for the American League in the All-Star game. Olson has also hit twenty dingers this year and will represent the playoff-contending A’s in the All-Star game. Gallo, who’ll join Ohtani, Pérez and Olson on the AL All-Star team, has been on an absolute tear over the last month, bringing his season total in homers up to twenty-three. Soto only has ten home runs this season, but he’s been one of the game’s best hitters since reaching the majors as a 19-year-old in 2018.

The Home Run derby will take place at Denver’s Coors Field on Monday, July 12.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported Gallo’s inclusion.

Orioles Claim Shaun Anderson Off Waivers From Rangers, Designate Konner Wade For Assignment

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The Orioles claimed Shaun Anderson off waivers from the Rangers and optioned him to Triple-A, the team announced. He’ll be joined there by Stevie Wilkerson, who cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Norfolk. To create a spot on the 40-man roster, Konner Wade was designated for assignment.

The Orioles are always in need of innings eaters. and Anderson can do exactly that. The 26-year-old has 16 career starts to his name, though those came with the Giants in 2019. More recently, he’s been a bullpen arm, though still one capable of shouldering a multi-inning load.

Anderson did not actually pitch in the Majors for Texas. In fact, his time with the Rangers consisted of a pair of outings in Triple-A, amounting to three scoreless innings. The Orioles are his third organization in 2021, however, starting the year as he did with the Twins, for whom he made four appearances, logging 8 2/3 innings and yielding nine earned runs on 13 hits and five walks while striking out eight. It would not be surprising to see Anderson in the Majors at some point this season.

Having recently lost Travis Lakins to a significant elbow injury, the Orioles needed another depth arm. They like Anderson enough to get him at the potential expense of Wade, who will now be exposed to waivers. There’s a decent chance he stays in the organization, however, as the 29-year-old rookie has just one Major League appearance, and the control artist lacks the type of strikeout stuff that tends to attract the attention of other organizations.

Wilkerson, meanwhile, has come out the other end of that waiver process and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Norfolk. The 29-year-old utility man has hit just .167/.211/.208 in 76 plate appearances this year.

Quick Hits: Sticky Stuff Crackdown, Cardinals, Verlander

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As we approach trade season, teams are burdened with the overwhelming task of re-evaluating the league in the wake of the crackdown on illegal substances. Broad strokes, evaluators will be more trusting of pitchers who rely on two-seamers and sinkers, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney. Unsurprisingly, those pitchers who have taken to the recent trend of high-velocity heaters up in the zone and wicked curveballs diving away will be watched more closely. The next month will obviously provide important data points for potential buyers, but looking at how players have struggled and/or succeeded in the first few months of the year will also be heavily scrutinized by teams looking to find players on the rebound. In other MLB news….

  • The Cardinals are doing their best to patch together a rotation in the wake of Jack Flaherty’s extended absence, but they’re also exploring their options outside the organization. They have reached out to the Twins about Jose Berrios and the Rangers for Kyle Gibson, but the price for Berrios was “high,” and presumably, the same will be true of Gibson, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. With very few difference-making arms likely to be available, Berrios and Gibson are sure to be in high demand. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak spoke of the Cardinals’ desire to win, but “not at the cost of our future.” While that’s a reasonable mode of thinking, such a mind-set isn’t likely to procure an arm like Berrios or Gibson.
  • Justin Verlander hasn’t rule out the possibility of returning to the Detroit Tigers before his career runs out, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Of course, Verlander needs to get healthy first. He will be a free agent at the end of the season, however, free to pursue a return to Detroit, should that be his desire. Verlander played in Detroit for 13 seasons. He ranks 2nd in Tigers’ history for rWAR among pitchers, 2.7 rWAR behind Hal Newhouser. He is fifth in Tigers’ history in games started with 380 and 2nd in total strikeouts with 2,373.

Rangers Designate Shaun Anderson For Assignment

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The Rangers announced they’ve designated right-hander Shaun Anderson for assignment. The move creates 40-man roster space for the previously-announced selection of catcher John Hicks.

Texas claimed Anderson off waivers from the Twins two weeks ago. They promptly optioned him to Triple-A Round Rock, so it’s possible Anderson’s Rangers tenure will end without a big league appearance. He tossed three scoreless innings for the Express.

Anderson made his MLB debut with the Giants in 2019 and was traded to Minnesota over the winter. The 26-year-old allowed twelve runs (nine earned) in 8 2/3 innings with the Twins this year, bringing his career ERA to 5.48 in 120 big league frames. Anderson has a much better 3.61 mark across parts of three Triple-A seasons

Texas will have a week to trade Anderson or place him on waivers. Between his minor league track record and pair of minor league option years remaining, Anderson could hold some appeal to other clubs. The Rangers had the league’s fourth-highest waiver priority when they claimed Anderson, so it’s possible a team with a better record is hoping to have an opportunity to add him this time around.

Rangers Select John Hicks

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The Rangers announced they’ve selected the contract of catcher John Hicks. Outfielder Jason Martin has been optioned to Triple-A Round Rock to clear active roster space. A 40-man roster transaction has yet to be announced.

Starting catcher Jose Trevino suffered a forearm contusion after he slipped and fell earlier today, notes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link). With Trevino unavailable, Texas needed another backstop to pair with Jonah Heim. That’ll open up an opportunity for Hicks’ first big league run in two years. The right-handed hitter saw MLB action every season from 2015-19, the bulk of which came with the Tigers.

Hicks flashed some power during his time in Detroit, but he never drew many walks and has struck out in 30.1% of his career plate appearances at the highest level. The 32-year-old signed a minor league deal with Texas over the winter and has hit .275/.352/.440 with three homers across 122 plate appearances with Round Rock. That’s league average production in a hitter-friendly Triple-A West environment.

Rangers’ Willie Calhoun, Hunter Wood Require Surgery

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Rangers outfielder/designated hitter Willie Calhoun will require surgery to repair a fracture in his left ulna, the team announced to reporters Monday (Twitter thread via Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). Calhoun sustained the injury when he was hit by a pitch on the forearm over the weekend. A clear timetable hasn’t yet been revealed — that’ll presumably come after the operation — but an absence of some note now looks all the more inevitable.

Meanwhile, right-hander Hunter Wood, who has been out since late May after hitting the IL with an elbow surgery that was eventually termed a “mild” sprain of his right ulnar collateral ligament. He’s now undergone elbow surgery and will miss a minimum of eight months, which suggests that Wood did not require a full Tommy John surgery (which comes with a 12- to 16-month recovery period). Indeed, the procedure in question installed an internal brace in Wood’s elbow, tweets The Athletic’s Levi Weaver.

It was already apparent that Calhoun would be out awhile following the announcement of a fracture, but it’s a tough blow all the same. The 26-year-old wasn’t hitting for the type of power he displayed in 2019, but Calhoun’s 8.4 percent walk rate and 11.6 percent strikeout rate are both career-best marks. He’s long been a touted hitting prospect, and had he been able to maintain that improved approach while reclaiming some of his 2019 pop as the summer wore on, there was some breakout potential.

It remains to be seen when or whether Calhoun will return to the big league club in 2021, but the injury will deprive him of a chance to bolster his case in his first offseason of arbitration eligibility. He’s under club control through the 2024 season.

As for Wood, the surgery will cut his season short at just five big league innings. The right-hander joined the organization on a minor league pact over the winter and showed well in a brief Triple-A look before allowing a pair of runs in his MLB frames. Wood didn’t pitch in the Majors last season, but he’s seen MLB time with both the Rays and the Indians in the past, throwing quite well along the way. He’s tallied 91 2/3 innings at the MLB level and put together a 3.34 ERA with a below-average 21.9 percent strikeout rate against an very solid 8.1 percent walk rate.

While Wood’s 2021 season is over, he can remain under team control with the Rangers organization — they’re comfortable committing a 40-man roster spot over the winter. There’s no guarantee that’ll be the case, but Wood has been outrighted in the past, so even if the Rangers remove him from the 40-man this winter and he goes unclaimed on waivers, he’d have the option of electing free agency to determine the best fit.

Willie Calhoun Suffers Forearm Fracture

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12:47 pm: Texas placed Calhoun on the 10-day injured list prior to today’s game. Outfielder Jason Martin has been recalled from Triple-A Round Rock in a corresponding move.

9:14 am: Rangers left fielder/DH Willie Calhoun fractured his forearm after being hit by a Kris Bubic pitch during yesterday’s game against the Royals, manager Chris Woodward told reporters (including Jeff Wilson). A more definitive timetable for his recovery won’t become clear until he undergoes further testing, but he’s obviously looking at a rather significant absence.

It’s unfortunately the latest in a series of injuries that have befallen Calhoun in recent years. The 26-year-old has spent time on the injured list due to leg issues in each of the last three seasons, and he was struck in the face by a Julio Urías pitch during Spring Training in 2020. Those persistent health problems have kept the promising hitter from picking up more than 337 plate appearances in any single major league season.

Calhoun has made 226 trips to the dish this year, hitting at a league average level (.254/.323/.385). That’s not the high-end offensive output the Rangers are hoping for from a player with limited defensive utility, but Calhoun still seems to have the potential to make more of an impact. He was a highly-regarded offensive player during his time as a prospect, and he looked to be on the verge of a breakout after putting up a .269/.323/.524 line in 2019.

Calhoun hasn’t hit for anywhere near that level of power this year, but he’s been one the game’s toughest players to punch out (11.9% strikeout rate). His batted ball metrics also indicate he’s made more quality contact to this point than his bottom line numbers would suggest. The left-handed hitter is scheduled to reach arbitration eligibility for the first time after the season.

2021 Amateur Draft Rumors: Pirates, Mayer, Orioles, Mock Drafts

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The 2021 amateur draft begins on July 11, and with the later date comes more time for analysis, predictions, smokescreens, rumors, and possible major changes up and down teams’ draft boards.  With this in mind, there is naturally quite a bit of uncertainty over which prospects will land with which teams, as a real consensus has yet to develop in almost every single spot in the first round.

Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo, The Athletic’s Keith Law, MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, and ESPN.com’s Kiley McDaniel have all published new mock drafts within the last week, and one constant emerged between the four pundits — the Pirates taking California high school shortstop Marcelo Mayer with the first overall (1-1) pick.  It isn’t a sure thing by any means, however, as the Pirates are said to be focused “only on position players at this point,” according to Law, so such candidates as Louisville catcher Henry Davis (Callis cites Davis as Pittsburgh’s apparent “Plan B”) or high school shortstops Jordan Lawlar and Khalil Watson could still be in the mix.  Collazo also believes the Pirates are considering Vanderbilt right-hander Jack Leiter.

The Pirates’ $14,394,000 draft bonus pool is the highest of any team, and they plan to maximize value by drafting a player at 1-1 who is thought to be less willing to insist on the full slot price $8,415,300 slot price for the first overall pick.  “I think that’s what Pittsburgh’s pick will come down to: taking the one that is clearly cheaper to sign,” McDaniel writes, which certainly isn’t welcome news to Pirates fans long frustrated by the team’s unwillingness to spend.

That being said, many teams have deployed the strategy of spreading around their draft bonus money in the past.  The most famous example was the Astros’ pick of Carlos Correa (seen as a slight reach at the time) first overall in 2012, and Houston signed Correa to a below-slot bonus and then using that saved money to sign 41st-overall pick Lance McCullers Jr. to an above-slot deal.  It also isn’t like Mayer would be a controversial choice at 1-1, considering that MLB Pipeline ranks him first on their top 250 draft prospects list, and McDaniel’s most recent prospect ranking has Mayer second overall.

While Mayer looks like the favorite at the moment, it is quite possible the perceived price tags could still fluctuate in the next three weeks.  For instance, the three pundits all note that the Tigers love Mayer, so he isn’t likely to fall beyond Detroit at the third overall pick if the Pirates and Rangers (who pick second) both pass.  As McDaniel observes, this impacts Mayer’s leverage in potential negotiations with the Pirates, since the young shortstop can be reasonably certain of at least landing a bonus in range of the $7,221,200 slot price attached to the third overall pick.

There is no consensus whatsoever in the mock drafts after a hypothetical Pirates/Mayer 1-1 pick, so if Pittsburgh went in another direction, the draft boards would be entirely blown up.  To give you an idea of the wide range of scenarios, here is the list of players cited by Callis, Collazo, Law and McDaniel as possibilities for each team drafting in the top eight, along with which pundit selected which prospect for each top-eight team in their mock draft.

  • 1. Pirates: Mayer (Callis/Collazo/Law/McDaniel), Henry Davis, Jordan Lawlar, Khalil Watson, Jack Leiter
  • 2. Rangers: Leiter (Callis), Lawlar (Collazo/Law), Davis (McDaniel), Kumar Rocker, Mayer, Watson….in a contrast to the other three pundits, Callis writes that Texas has Lawlar and Davis “on the back burner” behind Watson, Mayer, and Leiter.  “Watson has real heat at this spot,” Collazo writes.
  • 3. Tigers: Mayer, Jackson Jobe (Callis/Collazo), Leiter (Law), Brady House (McDaniel), Lawlar, Watson, possibly Rocker “as a big maybe” in Collazo’s words
  • 4. Red Sox: Lawlar (Callis), Davis (Law), Leiter (Collazo/McDaniel)….Collazo doesn’t believe Leiter would fall beyond Boston at fourth overall,
  • 5. Orioles: Davis (Callis), Colton Cowser (Law), Watson (Collazo/McDaniel), House, Harry Ford, either of Mayer/Lawler if they happened to fall….Baltimore is widely expected to take a college position player at an under-slot price, as a way of keeping money in reserve to go over-slot on other picks.
  • 6. Diamondbacks: Rocker (Callis), Davis (Collazo), Watson (Law), Lawlor (McDaniel), Jobe
  • 7. Royals: Watson (Callis), Rocker (Collazo/Law/McDaniel)….this is another minor consensus area, as Law and McDaniel believe that Rocker isn’t likely to fall beyond Kansas City.  “The market for Rocker is weirdly specific,” Law writes, citing the Rangers, Red Sox, Royals, Nationals, and Mets as perhaps the only true interested parties.  Of course, Callis projected the D’Backs to take Rocker at sixth overall, so Arizona could also be a candidate for the Vanderbilt righty.
  • 8. Rockies: House (Callis/Collazo/Law), Benny Montgomery (McDaniel), Jobe

All four mock drafts are well worth reading in full, to get a sense of what the 29 teams with first-round picks are generally targeting this year or have historically looked for in past drafts.  (The Astros aren’t included, as they lost their first-rounder as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.)

For more on the prospects themselves, you can check out the aforementioned lists from McDaniel and MLB Pipeline, Baseball America’s top 500 list, or some of the individual writeups from the Sports Info Solutions blog on such top college players as Florida outfielder Jud Fabian, Wake Forest right-hander Ryan Cusick, UCLA shortstop Matt McClain, and Mississippi right-hander Gunnar Hoglund.

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