Twins Have Shown Interest In Ken Giles, Kirby Yates
The Twins’ need for bullpen help has been apparent for much of the season, and La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that they’ve “definitely checked on” a pair of the market’s top options: Blue Jays closer Ken Giles and Padres closer Kirby Yates. Both right-handers are controlled through the 2020 season via arbitration. Neal notes that the Blue Jays and Padres both had scouts on hand to watch the Twins’ Triple-A club recently, as did the Diamondbacks and Pirates (presumably, in addition to multiple other organizations).
Minnesota has seen the division-rival Indians creep back into the divisional picture with a six-game winning streak to close out the first half. The Twins took two out of three from the Rangers to finish out the half and were in position for a potential sweep Sunday. However, the offense couldn’t break a tie before the ‘pen allowed a trio of runs in the top of the 11th inning.
Left-hander Taylor Rogers has quietly broken through as one of baseball’s best relievers. He boasts a 1.56 ERA with 11.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 0.62 HR/9 and a 46.9 percent grounder rate in 86 2/3 innings dating back to last June, when he began heavily relying on a slider that transformed his arsenal and perhaps his career. Minnesota has also received strong output from 30-year-old rookie right-hander Ryne Harper.
Looking past that pairing, Tyler Duffey has generally been sharp but has stumbled recently, with runs allowed in three of four outings. Trevor May and Matt Magill are both missing bats at high clips but also issuing far too many walks. Offseason signee Blake Parker has has a solid ERA and 10 saves but is averaging a sky-high 2.03 HR/9 with too many walks himself. He’s unlikely to sustain his 3.77 ERA (5.72 FIP, 4.74 xFIP). Journeyman Mike Morin has a 3.18 ERA in 22 2/3 innings but has only fanned 11 hitters in that time.
Those seven names lead Twins relievers in innings pitched, but Minnesota has utilized another 13 arms out of the ‘pen so far in 2019. Most have struggled considerably. Twins relievers do rank either 12th or 13th in the Majors in collective ERA, FIP and xFIP, but it’s been a top-heavy unit that, like any contender’s bullpen, would benefit significantly from another experienced late-inning arm.
Giles, 28, is earning $6.3MM and is arguably in the midst of his best season in the Majors. Through 31 innings, he’s pitched to a 1.45 ERA with a career-high 15.4 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 and 0.58 HR/9. Josh Hader is the only qualified pitcher in baseball with a higher swinging-strike rate than Giles’ ridiculous 20.4 percent mark. Giles also ranks in the top 10 in terms of opponents’ chase rate (39.1 percent) and average fastball velocity (97.3 mph). With the Blue Jays in a rebuild and already well out of playoff contention, he’s among the safest bets to be traded in all of MLB.
Yates, 32, has been even better. The second waiver-claim-turned-relief-ace the Padres have unearthed in the past couple of seasons, Yates erupted as one baseball’s premier relievers upon adopting a splitter that ranks as one of the game’s most effective offerings. He’s recorded video-game numbers so far in 2019, with a 1.15 ERA, 13.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.23 HR/9 and a 48 percent grounder rate. He’s being paid at an even more affordable $3.0625MM rate in 2019, but San Diego, unlike Toronto, is firmly in the postseason picture. The Padres are an insurmountable 14 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West but sit just two games out of a Wild Card spot. Reports have indicated that the Padres would need an “overwhelming offer” or “unforeseen haul” in order to move Yates.
It stands to reason that the Twins have checked in far more relievers than just these two, of course. Twins brass has surely checked in on the majority of relievers publicly known to be available — and quite likely several that don’t stand out as readily apparent trade candidates. It’s perhaps of some note that both players listed are controlled beyond the 2019 campaign, though Minnesota has also been connected to Giants closer Will Smith — a free agent at season’s end. If the Twins do prefer relievers controlled through at least 2020, some other options would include San Francisco’s Sam Dyson (profiled here last Friday), Detroit’s Shane Greene, Baltimore’s Mychal Givens, Seattle’s Roenis Elias and Kansas City’s Ian Kennedy.
AL Injury Notes: Luzardo, Stroman, Twins, Mize
There’s now a rough timeline for Athletics southpaw Jesus Luzardo, who was agonizingly close to a full return from a shoulder injury — and his first taste of the majors — when he suffered a lat strain days ago. Fortunately, the hyped 21-year-old could be ready to begin a new rehab assignment within four or five weeks. That’s about as quick a potential bounce back as might have been hoped for a player who’ll assuredly be handled with extra care. It seems there’s still a reasonable shot of Luzardo being a late-season MLB option, though the A’s will not be able to assume that they’ll get a shot in the arm from the top prospect.
Here’s more from the American League:
- Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman will not take the ball again before the All-Star break, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets. Stroman hasn’t pitched since he exited a June 29 start with a left pectoral cramp, though the injury may not be severe enough to prevent him from participating in the All-Star Game, according to Nicholson-Smith. Regardless, the team’s hope is he’ll start its first game after the break. The fact that Stroman’s one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates makes his health all the more crucial with the July 31 deadline coming up.
- There was some good news and bad news today on the injury front for the Twins, as Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). Outfielder Eddie Rosario, on the IL with a sprained ankle since June 28, is making progress and should return shortly after the All-Star break, manager Rocco Baldelli suggested. Meanwhile, the left oblique strain that forced fan favorite and utilityman Willians Astudillo to the IL on June 27 is “significant,” per Baldelli. It could keep Astudillo out “for the foreseeable future,” Park writes.
- Tigers prospect Casey Mize has resumed throwing after a recent injury scare, GM Al Avila told reporters including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (via Twitter). That’s not of immediate consequence for the Detroit club, but is certainly excellent news for the team’s long-term outlook. Mize, the 2018 No. 1 overall pick and one of the majors’ elite farmhands, has been on the minor league IL with right shoulder inflammation for three weeks. The 22-year-old laid waste to his competition before then, combining for a 0.92 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 78 innings between High-A and Double-A ball.
Injury Notes: Stroman, Pollock, Wood, Peralta, Reed, Gennett
The latest on some injury situations from around baseball….
- Marcus Stroman was originally scheduled to start for the Blue Jays against the Red Sox tonight, but the team has opted to instead use Derek Law as an opener and Thomas Pannone as a bulk pitcher. Stroman left his last outing with a left pectoral cramp, and the Jays will delay his next start by at least one day, though “there’s a chance that he won’t pitch until after the All-Star break,” manager Charlie Montoyo told media (including MLB.com’s Alexis Brudnicki. “He’s still the same way, day to day,” Montoyo said. “But again, if he’s not 100 percent, we’re not going to pitch him….If he plays catch today and feels like he could throw a bullpen or something nice and easy, that he could go, then we’ll pitch him.” Stroman’s injury isn’t thought to be serious, though the Blue Jays are being as cautious as possible with their ace, particularly given his status as one of the game’s top trade deadline candidates.
- A.J. Pollock is beginning his minor league rehab assignment tonight with the Dodgers‘ high-A affiliate in Rancho Cucamonga, as per the team’s Twitter feed. Pollock has been out of action since late April, when a staph infection in his right elbow led to surgery to remove metalwork in that elbow from a previous procedure in 2016. The outfielder had managed only a .223/.287/.330 slash line over his first 115 plate appearances as a Dodger before hitting the IL, and is hopeful of returning to the Los Angeles roster after the All-Star break.
- Reds manager David Bell provided updates on several injured members of the Cincinnati roster in his pregame meeting with reporters, including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Alex Wood is slated to begin a rehab assignment this week, as the lefty will pitch for the first time this season after being beset with back problems since Spring Training. Wandy Peralta (hip) may need a minor league rehab game or two, though he had a bullpen session today and is pretty close to a return. Cody Reed (knee strain) is back “throwing” since hitting the IL in late May, Bell said, though “he’s probably still a couple of weeks away from pitching.”
- There has also been “no talk of IL at this point” about Scooter Gennett, Bell said, after Gennett left Wednesday’s game with tightness in his left groin. Gennett didn’t play today, as Bell decided to give the veteran two full days of rest since the Reds have an off-day on Friday. Gennett only recently returned from a right groin strain that had sidelined him since March 22.
The Blue Jays’ Potential Outfield Savior
This has been anything but a productive season for the Blue Jays’ outfield, which ranks at the absolute bottom of the majors in fWAR (minus-1.0) and second last in wRC+ (75). Center fielder Randal Grichuk has fallen well short of expectations after signing a five-year, $52MM extension in early April, while neither corner outfielders Teoscar Hernandez nor Billy McKinney have come close to replicating above-average offensive showings from 2018. But Toronto’s outfield does have a saving grace in Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who – two-plus years after joining the franchise – is now delivering on the considerable hype he garnered as a prospect.
Gurriel signed with the Blue Jays out of Cuba in November 2016, ending a months-long derby in free agency which saw several teams court him. He ultimately accepted a seven-year, $22MM offer from the Blue Jays, who hardly broke the bank for his services. Had Gurriel failed in Toronto, it wouldn’t have done much damage to the team’s books. Had he succeeded, on the other hand, Toronto would have had a steal on its hands. It now looks like a case of the latter.
Gurriel debuted with the Blue Jays last year and showed off legitimate offensive promise, slashing .281/.309/.446 (103 wRC+) with 11 home runs in 263 plate appearances. He did amass 59 strikeouts against just nine walks, though, while drawing atrocious defensive grades in the middle infield. Gurriel totaled minus-12 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-7.0 Ultimate Zone Rating in almost 550 innings divided between shortstop and second base.
Despite his infield woes a year ago, Gurriel opened 2019 as Toronto’s top option at second base. It didn’t last long, though. The team optioned Gurriel to Triple-A Buffalo in mid-April, in part because he wasn’t doing much at the plate, but has reaped the rewards since then.
The Blue Jays had Gurriel work in the grass during his minor league demotion and now appear to have an outfield cornerstone in their midst. When the Blue Jays sent the 25-year-old down, he owned a meager .175/.250/.275 line in 29 at-bats. Two and a half months later, he has teed off on major league pitching to the tune of a .318/.366/.642 line with 14 home runs in 191 plate appearances. Among major league hitters who have accrued at least 190 trips to the plate, Gurriel’s 163 wRC+ ranks seventh. On the other side, both DRS and UZR have graded him as a scratch defender in left field since he returned from Buffalo.
To this point, the athletic Gurriel seems cut out for his new position, but how sustainable is his offensive outburst? Well, his 25.1 percent strikeout rate and 6.3 percent walk rate aren’t particularly promising, and he sports a .365 batting average on balls in play that won’t hold. He’s also making far less contact and swinging and missing more than he did a year ago. That said, encouraging signs abound. Gurriel may not be making as much contact as he did in 2018, but his hard-hit rate has risen almost 14 percent since then, according to FanGraphs. A drastic increase in fly ball rate, a four-degree rise in launch angle and a noticeable drop in grounders further help explain his power uptick.
Gurriel’s current weighted on-base average, .413, ranks in the top 4 percent of the majors, per Statcast. That’s probably not sustainable, though other indicators show Toronto has a real building block on its hands. The right-handed Gurriel ranks closer to the top of the league than the bottom in expected batting average (61st percentile), average exit velocity (65th percentile), expected wOBA (75th percentile), hard-hit percentage (87th percentage) and expected slugging percentage (93rd percentile). Gurriel’s .361 xwOBA sandwiches him between the likes of Charlie Blackmon and Francisco Lindor, among a slew of other familiar names. It helps that Gurriel hasn’t been vulnerable against lefty or right pitchers, whom he has crushed to varying degrees, or particular offerings. Gurriel has posted an xwOBA ranging between .356 and .477 against fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed pitches, says Statcast.
Back when Toronto signed Gurriel, the hope for the team was that he’d evolve into an indispensable piece of its infield. It now looks as though he’s turning into an integral part of the Blue Jays’ outfield, which no doubt stands as a major victory – especially with young second baseman Cavan Biggio and shortstop prospect Bo Bichette in the mix. With Gurriel, Biggio, Bichette and budding third base star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in line to comprise almost half of Toronto’s attack for the long haul, an enviable offensive core looks to be taking shape up north.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
AL East Notes: Stroman, Yankees, Voit, Rays, Castillo
Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman left his start against the Royals in the fifth inning Saturday with “discomfort,” Shi Davidi of Sportsnet tweets. Stroman’s final pitch – a two-seam fastball – clocked in at 89.5 mph, down about 3 mph from his typical velocity, per Davidi. While Stroman’s status isn’t yet known, a serious injury would be a rather unfortunate turn of events for Toronto leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. Stroman, if healthy, figures to end up as one of the best starters on the move over the next month. [UPDATE: Stroman has a left shoulder pectoral cramp, Scott Mitchell of TSN was among those to report. He won’t miss any time, manager Charlie Montoyo told Davidi and others.]
More from the AL East…
- Yankees first baseman Luke Voit exited the team’s London-based slugfest against Boston on Saturday with tightness in his core muscle, according to the Bombers (via ESPN.com). Voit told reporters (including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com) that he hopes to avoid the injured list, but the team will know more about his status Sunday. The 28-year-old collected four hits in as many attempts prior to his exit Saturday, upping his 2019 line to .280/.393/.509 (140 wRC+) with 17 home runs in 349 plate appearances. That would obviously be difficult production for the red-hot Yankees to lose, especially considering they may have just seen fellow slugger Giancarlo Stanton go down until at least August. The Yankees replaced Voit on Saturday with Gio Urshela and moved Urshela to third base for the sizzling DJ LeMahieu, who shifted to first.
- Sticking with the Yankees, ace righty Luis Severino is still at least five to seven days from throwing, George A. King III of the New York Post reports. Severino has been shelved for almost three months with a lat strain – an injury that’s 90 percent healed, according to King. However, Severino’s still battling some soreness in the area. There has been plenty of speculation about the Yankees acquiring a starter (perhaps Stroman) in the next month, but they’d likely benefit more from a healthy Severino than any other hurler they could land in the coming weeks.
- The Rays aren’t ruling out a return before the All-Star break for injured reliever Diego Castillo, manager Kevin Cash said Saturday (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). The club placed Castillo on the IL last Sunday with right shoulder inflammation. That came on the heels of a few rough appearances for the flamethrowing Castillo, whose ERA was 2.05 as recently as June 11 but now sits at 3.93.
Health Notes: Story, Kluber, Tigers, Brewers, Royals, Jays
Rockies shortstop Trevor Story will start a Triple-A rehab assignment Saturday, Nick Groke of The Athletic relays. It’ll be a two-game rehab stint for Story, whom the Rockies placed on the injured list June 20 with a right thumb issue. It seems Colorado dodged a bullet in this instance with the all-important Story, who missed a large portion of the 2016 campaign with a torn UCL in his left thumb.
- Indians ace Corey Kluber has received clearance to begin a throwing program, per Mandy Bell of MLB.com. The venerable Kluber has been out since suffering a non-displaced fracture in his right forearm May 1. Kluber’s absence, not to mention the other adversity the Indians have faced this season, has left the three-time reigning AL Central champions out of the playoff picture at the 80-game mark. They’re eight games back of the division-leading Twins and a half-game out of a wild-card spot.
- The Tigers put righty Spencer Turnbull on the injured list Friday with shoulder fatigue after he departed Thursday’s start early. The team plans to welcome Turnbull back after the All-Star break, according to Jason Beck of MLB.com. That Turnbull seemingly isn’t dealing with a serious injury is undoubtedly a relief to Detroit, which has seen the 26-year-old post terrific production as a rookie this season. Turnbull has pitched to a 3.31 ERA/3.91 FIP with 8.43 K/9, 3.41 BB/9 and a 49 percent groundball rate in 89 2/3 innings.
- The Brewers announced that they’ve placed Jimmy Nelson on the 10-day IL, retroactive to June 26, with a right elbow effusion. It’s an issue that has bothered Nelson since spring training, Robert Murray of The Athletic tweets, and may help explain his 2019 struggles. Nelson made his season debut June 5 after sitting out since September 2017, when he underwent surgery on a torn shoulder labrum. The 30-year-old has since allowed 13 earned runs on 18 hits and 14 walks (with 15 strikeouts) in 14 innings. The Brewers pulled Nelson from their rotation last weekend.
- Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi will begin a rehab assignment at the Double-A level Saturday, Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star tweets. Mondesi has been on the IL since June 19 with a groin injury. Prior to that, the 23-year-old batted .269/.302/.441 (91 wRC+) with six home runs, 27 stolen bases on 30 tries and 2.1 fWAR in 312 plate appearances.
- Blue Jays lefty Ryan Borucki will need at least three to four minor league rehab starts before making his 2019 major league debut, manager Charlie Montoyo said Friday (via Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com). Borucki’s not on track to rejoin Toronto until the end of July as a result. Elbow problems have kept the 25-year-old Borucki from building on an encouraging 2018 rookie campaign. The starter turned in a 3.87 ERA/3.80 FIP with 6.17 K/9, 3.04 BB/9 and a 46.8 percent grounder rate over 97 2/3 frames last year.
AL West Notes: Stroman, Astros, Yordan, Trout, Laureano
Marcus Stroman has been mentioned as a possible trade target for not only the Astros, but virtually every team in baseball that could be looking for starting pitching help. Houston’s interest in the Blue Jays righty, however, dates back to at least 2017, as Peter Gammons reports (Twitter link) that the Astros heavily evaluated Stroman when exploring pitching targets that summer. Houston “did almost as much work on” Stroman as they did on eventual acquisition Justin Verlander, Gammons writes. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle addressed Gammons’ tweet and the Astros’ pitching needs as part of a mailbag piece, noting that Stroman’s pitching style doesn’t match Houston’s preferred model for a starter, though the Astros don’t hold hard and fast to that model — case in point, their signing of Wade Miley last winter.
Here’s some more from around the AL West…
- Yordan Alvarez left today’s game after three innings due to what the Astros described as “discomfort” in his left knee. (MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart was among those who reported the news.) The injury isn’t thought to be serious, as Alvarez said he could have continued playing, though manager A.J. Hinch said he removed Alvarez “as a precaution” and “we’ll give him a day or two” to get healed up. Alvarez initially suffered the injury after fouling a ball off his knee on Tuesday. The rookie slugger has been nothing short of incredible during his first 65 Major League plate appearances, with seven homers and a .298/.385/.719 slash line.
- Before Mike Trout signed his record-setting extension with the Angels in March, Phillies fans long wondered if the superstar would one day join the Phils to play closer to his hometown of Millville, New Jersey. As Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller writes, however, Trout appreciates keeping some space between his real-life home and his adopted hometown of Los Angeles. “Obviously, a lot of people from home wanted me to come back east. We were thinking about it, my wife and I,” Trout said. “But it’s perfect to be able to go back in the offseason and have a life, be myself and spend time back in my hometown. It’s always good to go back.” The story is well worth a full read for Trout’s loyalty to the Angels, the connection between Trout and Millville, plus the interesting note of how Bryce Harper got in touch with Trout before signing to learn some details about the Philadelphia area, prior to Harper’s deal with the Phillies.
- The Athletics are known to be considering extensions with several of their players, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle adds Ramon Laureano‘s name to the list of those under consideration for a long-term deal. “Laser Ramon” has already gained attention for his excellent throwing arm, and has also shown some promise at the plate, entering today hitting .261/.306/.440 with 12 home runs over 314 plate appearances. An extension for Laureano would probably be a relatively inexpensive investment for Oakland, certainly in comparison to the much greater dollar figures it would take for the A’s to extend the likes of Matt Chapman or Marcus Semien. But, there’s also no real rush to extend Laureano yet, as the outfielder has yet to amass even a full year of MLB service time.
Blue Jays Notes: Stroman, Giles, Gurriel
Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman has come to terms with the fact that he’s a near-certainty to be traded and told reporters this week that he’s not expecting the team to make any final efforts to sign him long-term (link via Bill Ladson of MLB.com). Though he tries not to focus on trade rumblings, Stroman acknowledged that he can’t avoid all of the talk, implying that as a New York native, the frequent connections between him and the Yankees have been on his radar. “I’m from New York and I’m a New York boy,” said Stroman. “That kind of says everything for itself.” Stroman noted that he loves pitching in the spotlight of Yankee Stadium, even if the Yankees’ lineup tends to be “brutal” for opposing pitchers. Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling also has comments from Stroman on the possibility of a trade and the manner in which he tries to tune out trade chatter, knowing it’s not something he can control. In 100 2/3 innings this season, Stroman has posted a tidy 3.04 ERA with 6.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 and a 57.9 percent ground-ball rate. He’s earning $7.4MM in 2019 and is arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter.
More out of Toronto…
- Closer Ken Giles came to the Blue Jays with a questionable clubhouse reputation, but The Athletic’s John Lott writes (subscription required) that Giles has quickly changed the narrative, emerging as a leader and mentor to less-experienced pitchers. First-year manager Charlie Montoyo even acknowledged a bit of surprise regarding Giles’ demeanor, telling Lott: “You gotta give him all the credit. He’ll do anything for the team. I didn’t know he was like that. I saw what you guys saw from Houston and all that stuff.” Freddy Galvis, who was on the Phillies when Giles made his MLB debut there, suggested that while he never had an issue with Giles, it’s also obvious that the right-hander has matured since they were last teammates. Giles acknowledges that fatherhood, among other factors, has changed his perspective on life. The closer plainly states that he loves it in Toronto and would prefer to stay there, but he’s also keenly aware that a trade is not only possible but likely. Giles, who is controlled through the 2020 season, has a 1.33 ERA and a 47-to-8 K/BB ratio through 27 innings with the Blue Jays so far in 2019.
- Zwelling also takes a close look at what has been a near-seamless transition to left field for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. The converted infielder has played just 28 MLB games there (plus another seven in the minors) but already looks comfortable in his new environs. Gurriel has racked up five outfield assists through just 241 innings while impressing the coaching staff and teammates alike with his outfield play. “Lourdes is unreal out there,” said Stroman of his teammate. “Man, I can’t put it into words. He looks like he’s been playing left field for years. It’s pretty shocking. And it’s exciting.” Meanwhile, Gurriel has somewhat quietly been on a tear at the plate as well. Since being recalled from Triple-A on May 24, he’s raked at a .330/.372/.679 clip with 10 homers, seven doubles and a triple in 121 plate appearances.
Quick Hits: Pujols, Dodgers, Haniger, Dipoto, Bichette
On July 31, 2000, the Padres and Cardinals swung a trade deadline deal that sent Heathcliff Slocumb and prospect Ben Johnson to San Diego in exchange for catcher Carlos Hernandez and minor league utilityman Nate Tebbs. The swap is little more than a footnote in team history, though it could’ve been a far more legendary trade had Johnson been replaced with another prospect who was on the Padres’ radar — Albert Pujols. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch details the intriguing history of that would-be deal, and how the Cardinals front office had to make a decision between including Pujols (a famously unheralded 13th-round pick in the 1999 draft) or Johnson, a much more highly-touted fourth-rounder from that same draft. Pujols showed so much promise in his early pro career, however, that the team ultimately decided to move Johnson and spend more time evaluating a potential hidden gem. “I really didn’t want to give up Ben, either, but that’s why you always have your top guys scout your own system,” said Walt Jocketty, then the Cardinals’ general manager. “You have to know your own, like Pujols. There was no way we could trade him. No way, just based on what our guys had seen in a short period of time. They said, ‘I think he’s going to be something special – or has a chance to be.’ When I saw it myself, it was obvious.”
Here’s more from around the baseball world…
- Even with Rich Hill on the IL for an undetermined period of time, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman isn’t planning to make starting pitching a particular focus at the trade deadline. “I don’t see it being an area where we spend a lot of energy,” Friedman told reporters, including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. “Could that change? Of course. But I don’t expect it right now. We don’t expect it to be an area of need.” In fact, Friedman didn’t think his team had any obvious weak spots, which perhaps isn’t a surprise given the Dodgers’ league-best 54-25 record. Instead, the front office will look out for “impact players,” since such additions are “what moves the needle in October.”
- In an interview on “The Front Office” on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (audio link), Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto reiterated that his trade deadline efforts will be directed towards moving veteran players. Younger and more controllable members of the Seattle roster are less likely to be moved, since they are part of what Dipoto hopes “is a very quick turnaround” within 12-18 months. “Some of the guys that we do have here that attract the most trade attention, particularly guys like Mitch Haniger, they’re critical to our growth. So at some point, you do have to build around something,” Dipoto said.
- With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cavan Biggio now in the majors, speculation is swirling in Toronto about when Bo Bichette could make his Blue Jays debut. A consensus top-12 prospect in the sport prior to the season, Bichette has a .256/.316/.453 slash line and three homers over 96 Triple-A plate appearances in 2019, while missing over six weeks due to a fractured hand. As a result, Jays GM Ross Atkins told Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith that Bichette still needs a bit more seasoning in his first stint at the Triple-A level. “We’d really like to see some time in triple-A and have him get his legs under him and have a good strong foundation before we have that discussion [about a promotion],” Atkins said. For comparison’s sake, Nicholson-Smith notes that Biggio had 174 PA and Guerrero 162 PA for Triple-A Buffalo before getting the call to the Show.
Aaron Sanchez’s Diminishing Trade Value
Trade rumors have swirled around both Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman for months, though teams considered the Blue Jays’ asking price for either young right-hander to be “uncomfortably high” during the offseason. The Jays were thought to still be looking for a premium return in any deal, despite the fact that both Sanchez and Stroman were coming off inconsistent, injury-shortened seasons. The prevailing wisdom was that the Jays would be counting on both pitchers to be healthy and effective in the first half of 2019, paving the way for the duo to become prime trade chips at the July 31st deadline.
For Stroman, it’s been all systems go in amassing a 3.04 ERA over 100 1/3 innings, including his six shutout frames against the Red Sox today. For Sanchez, however, his first 16 starts have only led to more frustration. Sanchez has managed only a 5.49 ERA over 78 2/3 innings this season, with ERA indicators (5.48 FIP, 5.30 xFIP, 5.43 SIERA) and hard-contact numbers (a .355 xwOBA just slightly below his .359 wOBA) providing evidence that Sanchez’s struggles are far removed from simple bad luck.
Counting his abbreviated 2017 season, Sanchez is now in his third straight year of issuing at least five walks per nine innings. While he has a 50% grounder rate, 16.4% of the fly balls he has allowed have left the yard, leading to an unimpressive 1.4 HR/9. Never a big strikeout pitcher even at his peak in 2016, Sanchez has a 7.44 K/9 this season.
Speaking of Sanchez’s 2016 season, that excellent year stands out as the most recent bit of evidence that the right-hander has be a front-of-the-rotation type of starter, as Sanchez has since been consistently hampered by a variety of finger problems. Between cracked and removed fingernails, surgery to repair a right index finger injured after being caught in a suitcase, and constant blister problems, Sanchez has been fraught with the type of hard-to-diagnose yet persistent injury concerns that would give any team pause.
As Sanchez told The Athletic’s John Lott (subscription required) last winter, the finger problems led to mechanical issues, as Sanchez tried to adjust for a new grip on the baseball. This led to a steep increase of Sanchez’s use of a changeup in 2018 that has continued into this season, and Sanchez’s curveball usage has also spiked to a career-high 22.7% this season (his previous high was 16.6% in 2017).
Though Sanchez is averaging 94mph on his fastball, he has only been throwing it 58.3% of the time in 2019 due to a lack of effectiveness. As per Fangraphs’ fastball runs above average metric (wFB), Sanchez has gotten less than his heater (-12.1 wFB) than all but two other qualified pitchers in baseball. Lott noted back in January that Sanchez’s sinker was a plus pitch for him in 2016, yet it has become an increasingly smaller part of the righty’s arsenal — after throwing it 54.9% of the time in 2016, that total dropped to 37.9% last season and 36.3% this year.
With all this in mind, Sanchez would need a big turn-around over the next four weeks to merit the type of return that the Blue Jays want for a young (Sanchez turns 27 on July 1) pitcher who is controlled through the 2020 season. Controllable arms have enough value in baseball that the Jays would surely still get some type of decent offers for Sanchez, especially if there’s a team out there that believes it has a fix for Sanchez’s grip problems.
The trouble is, a “decent” offer would still be seen as a big disappointment for a rebuilding Jays team that hasn’t been able to maximize its return on several of its veterans. Josh Donaldson would’ve been the Blue Jays’ biggest trade chip of 2018 yet shoulder and calf problems kept the third baseman off the field for much of the season, leaving the Jays forced to settle for just one prospect coming off Tommy John surgery (Julian Merryweather) in a trade with Cleveland. J.A. Happ was dealt at last year’s trade deadline for Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney, neither of whom have done much for the Jays this season. Roberto Osuna was sent to Houston last July for a three-pitcher package that included current closer Ken Giles, though Osuna surely would’ve netted more were it not for his off-the-field legal issues.
A case can be made that Toronto could opt to just hang onto Sanchez to see if he can ever get on track either after July 31st or in the first few months of the 2020 season. Sanchez is earning only $3.9MM this year and will only get a modest raise on that salary in his final season of arbitration eligibility, plus the Blue Jays will still need some kind of veteran rotation help next year.
There’s nothing stopping the Jays from continuing to explore trades for Sanchez over the winter, though then the team runs the risk that his rebound performance simply never comes around (or simply won’t come in a Toronto uniform if a change of scenery is required). The Jays face an increasingly tough decision leading up to the trade deadline, as the team will have to weigh whether settling for a modest trade return for Sanchez now might be preferable than getting even less, or nothing at all, for Sanchez down the road if his underwhelming 2018-19 performance represents his new normal.
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