Blue Jays Re-Sign Yimi García
The Blue Jays announced that they have signed right-hander Yimi García to a two-year contract. It’s a $15MM deal, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link). The 34-year-old is represented by the Nova Sports Agency.
The last time García was a free agent, he also signed with the Jays. Going into the 2022 season, he and the Jays agreed to a two-year deal with an $11MM guarantee, with that deal also having a club/vesting option for 2024.
At that time, García had just finished a strong three-year run split between the Dodgers, Marlins and Astros. He tossed 135 innings over the 2019 to 2021 seasons, allowing 3.53 earned runs per nine. He struck out 26.7% of batters faced and limited walks to a 6.8% clip.
His first two years with the Jays saw him continue to pitch in roughly the same manner. He tossed 127 innings over 2022 and 2023 with a 3.61 ERA, 25.9% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate. He racked up four saves and 41 holds for the Jays in that time and also vested his $6MM option along the way.
2024 was a bit of a mixed bag. García came out strong with a 0.47 ERA through his 19 innings, punching out 35.3% of batters faced. He even racked up five saves while closer Jordan Romano was battling injuries this year.
But García allowed seven earned runs in his next nine innings and then landed on the injured list in mid-June due to right elbow ulnar neuritis. He was activated from the IL in mid-July and traded to the Mariners shortly thereafter, with outfielder Jonatan Clase and catcher Jacob Sharp coming back the other way. He was only able to toss nine innings for Seattle down the stretch due to inflammation in his throwing elbow.
There’s clearly a bit of injury risk with García not pitching much in the second half of 2024, but the Jays know García well after spending most of the past three years with him. They clearly like the fit and have brought him back, now having received two younger players for the brief few months that they were apart from him.
Remaking the bullpen is a clear priority for the Jays, as the relief group fell apart in 2024 and was a key reason for their rough season. Toronto relievers had a collective 4.82 ERA in 2024, a mark that was worse than all clubs except for the Rockies. They cut ties with their long-time closer when they declined to tender Romano a contract for his final arbitration season and Romano has now signed with the Phillies. They also non-tendered Génesis Cabrera, who then signed a minor league deal with the Mets.
García should jump into the mix for leverage work in the Toronto bullpen alongside guys like Chad Green and Erik Swanson, though the Jays will likely make other bullpen moves before the offseason is done, with several free agents on their radar.
RosterResource lists the club’s competitive balance tax number at $210MM, which is $31MM below the base threshold of the tax. The Jays were over the line for much of the 2024 season but they are believed to have ducked under via their midseason selloff, which included García. President Mark Shapiro has suggested the club should be working with similar financial parameters in 2025 so perhaps they would be willing to cross the tax line again in the coming season. They were heavily involved in the Juan Soto bidding but missed out there and now appear to be pivoting to other targets such as Max Fried and Corbin Burnes.
Blue Jays, Eric Lauer Agree To Minor League Deal
The Blue Jays agreed to a minor league deal with left-hander Eric Lauer, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The CAA client will be in major league camp as a non-roster invitee this spring. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet adds that if Lauer makes the big league roster, he would earn a $2.2MM base salary with additional incentives based on innings pitched and games started.
Lauer, 29, was a first-round pick by the Padres in 2016 and has had solid seasons both in San Diego and particularly in Milwaukee. The Brewers acquired Lauer and Luis Urias in the 2019 trade sending Trent Grisham and Zach Davies to the Padres. In the first two seasons of his career, Lauer logged a 4.40 ERA in 261 2/3 innings with the Padres. He was hit hard in his 2020 debut for Milwaukee but looked to be on the cusp of a full-fledged breakout with the Brewers in 2021-22.
In 2021, Lauer added a slider to his repertoire midway through the season and went on an absolute tear to close out the year. Over his final 80 2/3 frames, he pitched to a sparkling 2.23 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. He came roaring out of the gates with a 2.38 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate in his first 10 starts of the 2022 campaign as well. Lauer hit a rough patch early in the summer and had some uneven results leading up to a season-ending placement on the injured list due to elbow inflammation in September but still ended the year with a solid 3.69 ERA in 158 2/3 innings.
Injury problems persisted for Lauer in 2023. He lost more than two miles per hour off his fastball early in the season, posted a 5.48 ERA through late May and wound up on the injured list for the bulk of the season due to a shoulder impingement. Lauer split the 2024 season between the Triple-A affiliates for the Pirates and Astros before heading overseas to pitch for the Korea Baseball Organization’s Kia Tigers down the stretch. He was hit hard at all three stops, with an ERA approaching or in excess of 5.00 as a member of each team.
It’s been a few years since Lauer looked to be solidifying himself as a high-quality big league starter. He’s dealt with elbow and shoulder injuries along the way and has yet to regain his form. However, on a no-risk non-roster deal, there’s little harm in taking a look at a former first-rounder who had some legitimate big league success prior to a run of poor health. If the Jays can get him back on track, Lauer has 4.111 years of big league service, meaning he’d be controllable for multiple seasons.
2024 Rule 5 Draft Results
The 2024 Rule 5 draft took place this afternoon at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. The results of the draft are below.
As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.
Though the amateur (Rule 4) draft now has a lottery to determine the selection order, the Rule 5 draft still goes the old-fashioned way of reverse order of standings from the season that just ended. Clubs need to have an open 40-man roster spot in order to make a pick but aren’t obligated to make a selection on their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2025 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors.
Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs. The A’s took Mitch Spence from the Yankees with the top pick and kept him all year. Justin Slaten was plucked from the Rangers by the Mets and then traded to the Red Sox. Players like Anthony Santander and Ryan Pressly have been notable picks in other recent years while guys like George Bell and Roberto Clemente are found deeper in the history books.
Here are this year’s picks…
- White Sox: RHP Shane Smith (Brewers) (Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline relayed the pick on Bluesky prior to the draft)
- Rockies: pass
- Marlins: C Liam Hicks (Tigers)
- Angels: LHP Garrett McDaniels (Dodgers)
- Athletics: RHP Noah Murdock (Royals)
- Nationals: RHP Evan Reifert (Rays)
- Blue Jays: RHP Angel Bastardo (Red Sox)
- Pirates: pass
- Reds: 2B Cooper Bowman (Athletics)
- Rangers: pass
- Giants: pass
- Rays: LHP Nate Lavender (Mets)
- Red Sox: pass
- Twins: RHP Eiberson Castellano (Phillies)
- Cardinals: pass
- Cubs: 3B Gage Workman (Tigers)
- Mariners: pass
- Royals: pass
- Tigers: pass
- Astros: pass
- Mets: pass
- D-backs: pass
- Braves: RHP Anderson Pilar (Marlins)
- Orioles: pass
- Guardians: pass
- Padres: RHP Juan Nunez (Orioles)
- Brewers: LHP Connor Thomas (Cardinals)
- Yankees: pass
- Phillies: RHP Mike Vasil (Mets); Phillies later traded Vasil to Rays for cash considerations, per announcements from both clubs.
- Dodgers: pass
Second round (all but one club passed)
- Braves SS Christian Cairo (Guardians)
The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. Right-hander Hobie Harris, who pitched for the Nationals in 2023 and signed a minor league deal with the Mets last month, was taken by the Red Sox.
Latest On Corbin Burnes
Right-hander Corbin Burnes entered the offseason as the consensus top rotation option available in free agency, but following last night’s reported agreement between the Yankees and Max Fried he now stands as the only ace-level pitcher available on the open market this winter. That should put Burnes in strong position to exceed MLBTR’s seven-year, $200MM prediction for the righty. While Boston reportedly put together a formal offer for Corbin Burnes yesterday, a separate report from Mark Feinsand of MLB.com characterized the Blue Jays and Giants as the “most aggressive” teams in their pursuit of Burnes and went on to suggest that the Red Sox “appear hesitant” to spend at the level necessary to land the righty.
Toronto, who Feinsand notes is considered the “favorite” to land Burnes, have been involved on a number of top free agents this winter and made their first major moves of the winter yesterday by agreeing to terms with right-hander Yimi Garcia and trading infielder Spencer Horwitz and outfield prospect Nick Mitchell to land infielder Andres Gimenez and righty Nick Sandlin from the Guardians. While those moves have helped to address the club’s bullpen after they non-tendered Jordan Romano last month and bolster their infield mix, one area of the roster that has not yet been addressed is the rotation.
The Jays dealt lefty Yusei Kikuchi away at the trade deadline, face Chris Bassitt departing in free agency next winter, and saw Kevin Gausman take a step back last year as he enters his mid-30s. Given those realities, it’s hardly a surprise that the club would hope to add a top-of-the-rotation arm to its mix. For a club that’s been involved in top free agents ranging from Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter to Juan Soto and Max Fried this year, it’s hardly a surprise that they’re being aggressive on Burnes with the other top-of-the-market players rapidly coming off the board.
As for the Giants, the club has a clear hole at the front of their rotation after southpaw Blake Snell departed for their archrival Dodgers in free agency last month. Much like the Blue Jays, San Francisco has been deeply involved in the upper levels of free agency in the past several years. While most of that occurred under former president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, Buster Posey kicked his tenure as head decision-maker for the Giants off with a bang over the weekend when he signed shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year deal. While supplementing their young core with a top-flight starter alongside their twin investments in Adames and Matt Chapman would make plenty of sense, rumors percolated last month that the club could look to scale back payroll this winter, and it’s difficult to imagine them being able to achieve that goal while also bringing Burnes into the fold. Given that reality, it’s perhaps no surprise that sources told Feinsand they were “skeptical” of San Francisco’s odds of outbidding Toronto if the Jays are determined in their pursuit of Burnes.
Perhaps the most interesting piece of Feinsand’s report, however, is the apparent pessimism regarding the Red Sox as a suitor for Burnes. Boston brass haven’t been shy about their plans to be aggressive this winter, particular in pursuit of front-of-the-rotation arms. With Fried and Snell now off the market, Burnes is the last clearly ace-level pitcher available in free agency this winter. Feinsand suggests that the Red Sox could pursue a reunion with right-hander Nick Pivetta in free agency if they miss out on Burnes, though Pivetta’s 4.29 ERA in parts of five seasons with the Red Sox is hardly a front-of-the-rotation level resume.
Other possible solutions Feinsand discussed are right-hander Walker Buehler, whom the Red Sox were previously reported to have interest in, as well as trade market options like White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet. The trade market also seems to be a potential fallback plan for the incumbent Orioles if they miss out on reuniting with Burnes. A report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi earlier today described Baltimore’s hopes of re-signing the star righty as fading and noted that the Orioles have interest in Padres right-hander Dylan Cease in the event that Burnes ultimately lands elsewhere. Cease is not currently seen as likely to move, but the Padres are reportedly exploring his market with the Red Sox also known to be among his potential suitors. Turning back to Boston, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reported that the Red Sox “seem confident” about their ability to land a top pitcher this winter, although that could mean trading for a player like Crochet or Cease rather than signing Burnes.
Blue Jays Acquire Andres Gimenez
The Blue Jays and Guardians are in agreement on a four-player trade sending second baseman Andrés Giménez to Toronto. The Jays get Giménez and reliever Nick Sandlin for infielder Spencer Horwitz and outfield prospect Nick Mitchell. No cash is changing hands, so the Jays are absorbing the final five years of the Giménez contract.
It’s the first out of nowhere trade of the Winter Meetings. While it’s never a complete shock to see Cleveland deal a high-priced player, there hadn’t been much to suggest they were shopping their Gold Glove second baseman. Giménez appeared to be a core piece since he signed one of the biggest contracts in franchise history just two seasons back: a seven-year, $106.5MM extension.
Instead, the defensive stalwart is on the move for the second time in his career. Giménez began his career with the Mets, where his well-rounded profile made him one of the system’s top prospects. Cleveland acquired him alongside Amed Rosario as the key pieces in their return for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco during the 2020-21 offseason.
Giménez struggled during his first year in Cleveland, but he had a breakout showing in 2022. He played plus defense to win his first Gold Glove. Giménez also turned in an impact season at the plate, hitting .297/.371/.466 with 17 homers across 557 plate appearances. He was a deserved All-Star and finished sixth in MVP balloting in the American League.
Following that breakout season, the Guardians signed Giménez to the aforementioned extension. It remains the second-largest investment in the organization’s history, not too far behind the $124MM deal which José Ramírez inked the preceding spring. Cleveland surely envisioned building their long-term infield around that duo.
That’s not quite how things played out, as Giménez’s bat has taken a step backward. The Guardians probably didn’t expect him to repeat the offensive production he managed in 2022. He had a lofty .353 average on balls in play that would be hard to maintain, nor was he likely to be hit by as many pitches (an AL-high 25) as he’d been that year. Giménez’s numbers probably dropped off more sharply than Cleveland anticipated, though, as he has been a below-average hitter in consecutive seasons.
In 2023, the lefty-swinging Giménez hit .251/.314/.399 with 15 homers across 616 plate appearances. He improved his contact skills but saw his walk rate and power numbers take a step back. Those trends continued this year. Giménez managed just nine homers in 633 trips to the plate. He kept his strikeout rate to a tidy 15.3% clip but drew walks at a career-low 4.1% mark. He wrapped up the year with a middling .252/.298/.340 slash — his weakest offensive output over his three full seasons in Cleveland.
Despite the concerning offensive trends, Giménez remains a valuable all-around player. He has stolen 30 bases in consecutive seasons and is a good overall baserunner. He hasn’t had an injured list stint since 2020 and has topped 140 games in each of the last three seasons. Most significantly, he’s the sport’s best defensive second baseman. Giménez has been named the AL’s Gold Glove winner in three straight years. He has racked up 59 Defensive Runs Saved over that stretch. That’s well above Marcus Semien’s 37 mark that ranks second at the position. Statcast’s Outs Above Average doesn’t point to quite as big a discrepancy (49 to 40), but both metrics consider Giménez the game’s best keystone defender.
The Jays have poked around the market at second and third base. They have a handful of young players who are capable of manning one or both of those positions — Ernie Clement, Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido, Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez and Leo Jiménez among them — but it’s a group light on MLB experience. Giménez has a much higher floor in the middle infield. He’ll play second base for at least the upcoming season. That’s probably his long-term home, though he could be an answer at shortstop if Bo Bichette walks next offseason. Giménez came up as a shortstop. He hasn’t played there since 2022, but he’s an athletic enough defender that he could probably handle the position.
The Jays are taking on a decent chunk of money to make that happen. Giménez is under contract for at least the next five seasons. He’ll make $10MM next year, $15MM in ’26, and $23MM annually for the final three guaranteed years. There’s a $23MM club option for the 2030 campaign that comes with a $2.5MM buyout. The deal also calls for a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade. Including that bonus, Giménez is guaranteed $97.5MM for his age 26-30 campaigns. RosterResource calculates the Jays’ projected luxury tax number around $229MM, putting them roughly $12MM below next year’s base threshold.
Toronto also deepens a subpar middle relief group with the Sandlin acquisition. The low-slot righty has a solid track record over four years in the big leagues. Sandlin, who turns 28 next month, carries a 3.27 earned run average across 195 1/3 career innings. Despite a pedestrian 92-93 MPH fastball, he has shown the ability to miss bats. Sandlin carries a career 27.7% strikeout rate, which he essentially matched over 57 2/3 frames this past season.
The Southern Miss product has middling control. Sandlin walked 11% of batters faced this year, right in line with his 11.4% overall walk percentage. That’ll probably keep him in the middle innings rather than leverage work, but Sandlin’s four-pitch mix has helped him avoid the platoon issues that plague many ‘pen arms. The Jays are desperate for any kind of reliability in the bullpen. Only the Rockies had a worse relief group this year. Toronto subsequently moved on from Jordan Romano, Génesis Cabrera and Dillon Tate. They’re in agreement to bring Yimi García back on a two-year free agent deal, but they could use as many as four or five relief acquisitions this winter.
Sandlin has a little less than four years of MLB service. He’s entering his second of four arbitration seasons after qualifying early as a Super Two player. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $1.6MM salary next year. He should remain affordable over his three years of club control.
The biggest appeal for Cleveland is offloading the expensive portion of Giménez’s contract. Horwitz, 27, provides them with an upper level depth infielder. The lefty-hitting Horwitz has shown offensive promise both in Triple-A and the big leagues. He turned in an impressive .265/.357/.433 batting line over 381 plate appearances this year. Horwitz picked up 12 homers and 19 doubles while showing excellent strike zone awareness. He walked at an 11% clip while striking out 18.4% of the time.
Horwitz has a stellar minor league track record. He’s a career .316/.433/.471 hitter with nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 208 Triple-A games. He clearly has offensive ability, but he’s yet to get a full MLB run because of a lack of defensive value. Horwitz has been a first baseman for most of his minor league career. His 5’10” frame and hit-over-power approach are rare at that position. The Jays used him as part of their second base mix as well, but teams don’t seem to view him as an everyday player there.
The lack of defensive flexibility made Horwitz a tough fit on a team with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He’s similarly squeezed in Cleveland. Josh Naylor would be the first baseman if he’s not traded. Kyle Manzardo could take over even if the Guardians move Naylor. Horwitz still has a minor league option, so he could go back to Triple-A, but he has nothing left to prove there offensively. It’d be a surprise if a Cleveland team that emphasizes infield defense is willing to use him as their regular second baseman. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets that Horwitz might end up being flipped to a third team.
In any case, the Guardians will need to find a new second baseman. Juan Brito is on the 40-man roster and hit .256/.365/.443 during his age-22 season in Triple-A. He’s a potential regular, though there’d be risk for Cleveland in relying on a player who has yet to make his MLB debut. The Guards could pursue a stopgap via free agency or trade if they want to add some stability coming off a division title. Over the longer term, the move opens second base for this year’s first overall pick Travis Bazzana. The Oregon State product profiles as a quick-moving second baseman who could get to the majors by the end of next season if all goes well.
Mitchell, a 21-year-old outfielder, rounds out the return. Toronto just drafted the Indiana product in the fourth round. A left-handed batter, Mitchell hit .289/.350/.467 in 22 games as a college draftee in Low-A. Baseball America wrote in its draft report that Mitchell had good contact skills and above-average speed that gave him a shot to stick in center field. He probably projects as a fourth or fifth outfielder.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Jays and Guardians were finalizing a Giménez deal. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN was first with Horwitz’s inclusion. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic had Sandlin going to the Jays, while Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet was first to report the full trade and the absence of cash considerations.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Nationals Win Draft Lottery
Major League Baseball conducted its third annual draft lottery this afternoon at the Winter Meetings. The Nationals won the lottery and will pick first overall. They’ll be followed by the Angels and Mariners. Washington had just above a 10% chance of securing the top pick, the fourth-highest odds.
Here’s the first round order:
- Nationals
- Angels
- Mariners
- Rockies
- Cardinals
- Pirates
- Marlins
- Blue Jays
- Reds
- White Sox
- Athletics
- Rangers
- Giants
- Rays
- Red Sox
- Twins
- Cubs
- Diamondbacks
- Astros
- Braves
- Orioles
- Brewers
- Royals
- Tigers
- Padres
- Phillies
- Mets
- Guardians
- Yankees
- Dodgers
As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the Rockies and Marlins had identical chances (22.5% apiece) of landing the top selection.
All non-playoff teams ostensibly have a chance to win the lottery. However, the CBA also prevents a team that is not a revenue sharing recipient from landing within the top six in consecutive seasons. No team can get a lottery pick more than two years in a row. That ruled out the White Sox and Athletics this year. Chicago is not a revenue sharing recipient and picked fifth last year, while the A’s were in the top six in both 2023 and ’24.
The Sox were not allowed to pick higher than 10th, while the A’s were capped at 11th. That’s despite the White Sox having the worst season of all time that would’ve placed them among the three likeliest teams to pick first. That increased the odds for every team but was especially beneficial to Colorado and Miami (from a probability perspective) by pushing their chances of the #1 pick north of 20%. Unfortunately for those teams, the balls didn’t bounce their way. The Angels and Nationals were the other teams with at least a 10% shot.
Seattle and St. Louis come away as big winners. The Mariners went 85-77 and had the second-best record of any non-playoff team. St. Louis had the fourth-best mark for clubs that didn’t get to the postseason. They nevertheless were fortunate to spring into the top five. It’s a particularly disappointing outcome for Miami, who didn’t land a lottery pick at all despite sharing the best shot at the first selection. The only silver lining is that they’ll remain eligible for lottery picks for at least 2026 and ’27 if they don’t make the playoffs.
Teams that exceeded the third tier of luxury penalization have their top picks dropped by 10 spots unless that selection lands within the top six. (In that instance, the club’s second-highest pick would move back.) MLB has yet to officially announce the 2024 tax data, but it is believed that the Mets, Dodgers and Yankees are the only clubs that surpassed the $277MM threshold for the pick to be dropped. All those teams made the playoffs and weren’t eligible for the lottery anyhow.
The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.
Baseball America published its most recent Top 100 draft prospects in September. As always, that’s worth a full read. Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette topped BA’s list, though there’ll obviously be plenty of changes to the board as next spring’s amateur baseball season gets underway.
Max Fried Will Reportedly Choose Destination In Coming Days
Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top remaining free agents but he could be coming off the board soon. Per a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Fried is expected to pick his next club by Thursday, with the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays presented as the frontrunners. Rosenthal adds that right-hander Corbin Burnes is generating interest from the same three clubs, with the Giants perhaps involved there as well but not for Fried. The Rangers are mentioned as a possibility for Fried but that’s depicted as more of a long shot, with the Angels listed alongside the Giants as cubs that are not finalists for Fried.
It’s perhaps not a coincidence that the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays were finalists in the Juan Soto frenzy and are now listed as the most likely landing spots for Fried. The general expectation throughout the baseball world has been that the clubs with money to spend would focus on Soto until getting clarity on that situation, with those that missed out then pivoting to other targets. Now that Soto is going to the Mets, that seems to be how things are indeed playing out.
All three clubs are looking to make a big splash, though for different reasons. The Yankees just made it to the World Series, but suffered a deflating five-game loss to the Dodgers in which they looked clearly outmatched. They then lost last year’s big splash when Soto moved from the Bronx to Queens. The Red Sox have been dialing back payroll in recent years with lackluster results to go along with it, though now seem motivated to big big dogs again. The Jays were good during the regular season from 2020 to 2023 but suffered heartbreaking ends in each of those years, narrowly missing the playoffs in one of them with three quick postseason exits in the others. They followed that up with a dismal 2024 season that saw them fall to the basement of the A.L. East.
In different ways, each club is looking to both improve their respective rosters for next year while also perhaps mollifying a restive fanbase. Soto would have been one way of doing that but that’s now off the table.
Fried, 31 in January, has been a strong pitcher at the major league level for quite some time. He got brief big league looks in 2017 and 2018 but has been an established big leaguer for the past six seasons. From 2019 to the present, he has tossed 824 2/3 innings, allowing 3.06 earned runs per nine. His 23.8% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate in that time were both a bit above average while his 54.1% ground ball rate was excellent. Only Framber Valdez and Logan Webb had better ground ball rates for that time, among pitchers with at least 550 innings pitched, and Fried had a slightly better strikeout rate than those two. Fried was also a key part of Atlanta’s postseason rotations throughout that time.
There is a little bit of injury risk, as Fried was limited to 14 starts last year due to a forearm strain and had a brief IL stint in 2024 due to neuritis in that same forearm. That’s bit concerning but Fried managed to make 29 starts this year, logging 174 1/3 innings, and there hasn’t been anything to suggest he won’t be healthy for 2025.
At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Fried could land a six-year deal with a $156MM guarantee, though it’s possible that Fried’s earning power has jumped since then. Pitchers like Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes have outearned expectations and the massive Soto deal has perhaps altered industry spending expectations more generally.
For the Yankees, they don’t strictly need pitching. Their rotation is already fairly deep with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes and other options on the roster. However, Fried would certainly upgrade that group and they could then perhaps use the surplus to make a trade, with both Stroman and Cortes have been in previous rumors.
Boston’s chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has said he would like to raise the ceiling of the club’s rotation, which currently has a core three of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. The Sox will get Lucas Giolito back at some point during the 2025 season, once he recovers from last year’s elbow surgery. They have depth options like Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell and Quinn Priester but adding Fried would help the club with its aims of improving the rotation and the club more generally.
The Toronto rotation has a veteran core of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt. It seems likely that Bowden Francis will get a shot at having a spot next year since he was so strong in the second half of 2024. Yariel Rodríguez is an option for the fifth spot but he also has plenty of relief experience and could get bumped to the bullpen. Jake Bloss is on the roster and has encouraging potential but limited experience and could be ticketed for the Triple-A rotation.
While all three clubs are looking at Fried, they have another option in Burnes. He has flashed a higher ceiling than Fried but hasn’t hit that ceiling in the past two years. From 2020 to 2022, he posted a 2.62 ERA with a 33.4% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 47.6% ground ball rate. Over the past two seasons, his 3.15 ERA has still been a strong mark but with a diminished strikeout rate of 24.3%. He is still perceived as a strong option on account of his durability and overall strong results, with MLBTR predicted him for a $200MM guarantee over seven years.
The Giants make sense for a rotation addition and seemingly prefer Burnes to Fried. Their rotation currently consists of Webb, Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said this week that Jordan Hicks will get another shot at a rotation job. Guys like Hayden Birdsong and Landen Roupp could battle for the fifth spot but getting Burnes would obviously be a boon to the group.
Both Burnes and Fried rejected qualifying offers and are therefore associated with penalties, which differ depending on who ultimately signs them. The Giants are perhaps the most interesting club in this group as they already agreed to sign QO guy in Willy Adames. Since they paid the competitive balance tax last year, that means forfeiting $1MM of international bonus pool space and two draft picks, while signing another QO would effectively double that.
The Rangers’ interest in Fried was reported previously but also characterized as more of a long shot. They definitely want rotation upgrades, including a hope of re-signing Nathan Eovaldi, but they might need more clarity on their finances. They no longer have a broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group and have been looking into creating their own regional sports network but haven’t quite figured that all out yet. They are reportedly hoping to stay under the CBT in 2025 and they might need to make progress on the broadcast deal before throwing big money around.
The Angels are seemingly only mentioned to touch on Fried’s potential geographic preferences. Fried was born and raised in Southern California, then committed to UCLA before being drafted by the Padres. He was traded to Atlanta as a prospect and has spent his entire major league career with them so far. That club has signed many players to extensions but Fried wasn’t one of them. Rosenthal relays that some clubs feared Fried would prefer to return to the West Coast but it seems his three primary suitors are all A.L. East clubs.
Time will tell how things play out with Fried and Burnes, but it seems that the expected post-Soto domino effect might be coming to pass. As clubs pivot to plan B or plan C or plan D, guys like Fried and Burnes are seeing their markets heat up, which could potentially also impact guys like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and others soon as well.
Blue Jays Interested In Teoscar Hernandez
Reports from the weekend suggested that the Blue Jays had only limited interest in a reunion with Teoscar Hernandez, as Toronto was focused on Juan Soto and then on Anthony Santander as its next choice for an outfield upgrade. GM Ross Atkins made something of a clearer statement of the Jays’ stance on Hernandez, telling the Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm and other reporters that “there are so many positives about him that we are definitely interested in figuring out a way for that to be a possibility.”
Hernandez was a prospect fighting for playing time in a crowded Astros outfield at the time of the July 2017 trade deadline, but his career path changed when Houston dealt Hernandez and Nori Aoki to Toronto for veteran reliever Francisco Liriano. It was a win-win on both sides, as Liriano pitched well in the playoffs to help Houston win the World Series, and Hernandez emerged as a power bat over his six seasons in Toronto. Hernandez hit .263/.320/.503 with 129 home runs in 2419 PA from 2017-22, twice winning AL Silver Slugger honors.
As potent as Hernandez’s bat was, his penchant for strikeouts and his underwhelming defense led the Blue Jays to trade him to the Mariners for Erik Swanson during the 2022-23 offseason. Swanson enjoyed a strong season in the Jays’ bullpen in 2023 while Hernandez’s numbers took a dip (to a 106 wRC+) in Seattle, so the slugger headed into free agency on the heels of a pretty underwhelming platform year.
Hernandez chose to bet on himself by taking a one-year, $23.5MM contract with the Dodgers, guessing that he would return to form in Los Angeles and put himself in shape for a much pricier deal this winter. The decision was a success in every sense of the word, as Hernandez not only hit .272/.339/.501 with 33 home runs, he also won his first World Series ring as a major part of the Dodgers’ title run.
Trading Hernandez was far from the only reason for the Blue Jays’ offensive struggles over the last two seasons, as inconsistent to mediocre performances from pretty much everyone (even Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2023, before his big return to form this past season) have turned the lineup into a big question mark. Beyond Soto and Santander, the Jays have also been linked to Alex Bregman, Ha-Seong Kim, and Willy Adames as the team has looked to jumpstart a return to contention in the Jays’ last season of control over Guerrero and Bo Bichette.
With Soto and Adames now off the market, Hernandez’s stock has only improved as one of the top bats remaining on the free agent market. MLBTR ranked him 11th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents and projected Hernandez for a three-year, $60MM deal as he enters his age-32 season. Because Hernandez rejected the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, the Jays would have to give up $500K in international bonus pool money and their second-highest choice in the 2025 draft to sign him or any other QO-rejecting free agent. The Blue Jays were willing to give that compensatory package and upwards of $700MM to sign Soto, so technically, some money is there to make a much lower bid for Hernandez’s services.
As easy as installing Hernandez back in left field would be for the Jays, it isn’t necessarily certain that he’d be eager to rejoin a team that rather unceremoniously dealt him away two years ago. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers also seem like motivated suitors due to their own misses in the Soto sweepstakes. In regards to Los Angeles, what seemed to be a likely reunion between Hernandez and the Dodgers has yet to materialize due to a gap in negotiations, plus L.A. also added Michael Conforto to its outfield mix.
Blue Jays Interested In Several Free Agent Relievers
The Blue Jays had one of baseball’s worst bullpens in 2024, as injuries and under-performance wreaked havoc on what was a solid relief corps as recently as the 2023 campaign. Toronto’s steps to overhaul the pen have thus far been more focused on subtraction than addition, as the Jays have parted ways with the likes of former closer Jordan Romano, Genesis Cabrera, and Dillon Tate.
While the Juan Soto pursuit has dominated the Jays-related headlines this winter, the club has been actively linked to many players, as has been the standard operating procedure for Ross Atkins during his time as Toronto’s GM. This includes multiple relief arms, as Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi report that the Jays “have shown some level of interest” in Carlos Estevez, Kenley Jansen, Andrew Kittredge, Chris Martin, Phil Maton, A.J. Minter, and Paul Sewald. ESPN’s Jorge Castillo adds that Toronto is also one of the many teams interested in Jonathan Loaisiga.
Davidi and BNS note that the Guardians have shown some interest in some of Toronto’s minor league prospects, leading to some speculation that the Jays could look to bring in local product Josh Naylor, who is known to be available in trade talks. Speculatively, the Toronto/Cleveland connection might also be related to the Blue Jays’ bullpen search, as the Guards are very deep in relief pitching.
The sheer volume of names under consideration isn’t really all that unusual, considering how most teams take a broad view of the ever-shifting bullpen market. As Davidi and Nicholson-Smith note, the Jays have rarely invested much in relief pitching during Atkins’ tenure, and most of the relievers listed would likely be available on shorter-term deals. Turning to MLBTR’s ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, Estevez (22nd, projected for three-year, $27MM contract), Minter (34th, two years/$16MM), and Kittredge (40th, two years/$14MM) were the only ones to make the list.
Going beyond their usual comfort zone to sign Estevez might reflect the Blue Jays’ greater need for bullpen help, as non-tendering Romano left a big vacancy in the closer’s role. Chad Green looks like the favorite for saves at the moment, but signing Estevez would push Green back to a setup job and create a clearer bullpen hierarchy.
Jansen, of course, is far and away the most established closer of the group, with 447 saves over his standout 15-year career. Though Jansen is entering his age-37 season, he is coming off yet another strong performance in posting a 3.29 ERA and 27 saves over 54 2/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2024.
Sewald had seemingly established himself as a solid closer with the Mariners and then the Diamondbacks, and even got off to a hot start in 2024 before running into injuries and a very rough stretch that cost him his ninth-inning role in Arizona. Better health and a change of scenery could very well spark a return to form for Sewald, making him perhaps a bit of an underrated candidate for teams in need of saves.
Red Sox Interested In Anthony Santander
The Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox have strong interest in free agent outfielder Anthony Santander, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (X link). The Jays and Yankees have been connected to Santander in previous rumors.
The fit is logical as all three clubs just came up short in their pursuit of Juan Soto. This winter’s free agent outfield market featured Soto at the top, clearly on a tier by himself, well above the rest. The level below featured a cluster of guys including Santander, Teoscar Hernández, Jurickson Profar, Tyler O’Neill, Michael Conforto and others. O’Neill and Conforto are also off the board now, in addition to Soto, so it’s natural that these clubs would pivot to the guys still available.
Santander, 30, doesn’t have Soto’s youth or plate discipline but there’s no doubting the power. He has hit at least 28 home runs in each of the past three seasons, including 44 in the most recent campaign, leading to 105 overall for the 2022-24 seasons. His 8.5% walk rate in that time was right around league average, with his 20.5% strikeout rate slightly better than par. His .244/.317/.478 batting line for that stretch led to a 124 wRC+, indicating he was 24% better than league average.
Given that healthy production, it’s unsurprising that he is generating plenty of interest. What also works in his favor is that he is a switch-hitter without strong platoon splits. As a righty against lefties, he hit .239/.309/.513 in 2024 for a 132 wRC+. For the inverse split, he hit .225/.306/.488 for a 123 wRC+. For his career, he has a 111 wRC+ against lefties and 116 against righties.
That balanced attack means he should be able to fit into the plans of any club with an outfield need, or perhaps an opening at designated hitter. His outfield defense has been subpar in his career, with grades of -3 Defensive Runs Saved and -13 Outs Above Average. He has gotten brief looks at first base recently, with 72 innings at that spot in 2023 and one more in 2024.
Despite the defensive concerns, Santander’s power bat is one of the best available. Perhaps some club would be willing to live with the subpar defense, or maybe try to slot Santander in at first base or designated hitter down the road. At the start of the winter, MLBTR predicted Santander could earn a guarantee of $80MM over four years.
For the Sox, they would likely be looking at Santander as an outfielder. Their corner infield and designated hitter mix is already crowded, with Rafael Devers at third, Triston Casas at first and Masataka Yoshida a primary option for designated hitter. There have been some rumors that the Sox would like to sign a third baseman and move Devers over to the other side of the diamond, which would likely require Casas or Yoshida to be moved.
In the outfield, the Sox have some good options but they could fit Santander into the mix. Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu project to be in two spots, but both are left-handed hitters with notable platoon splits. The lineup is already fairly left-leaning as Devers, Casas and Yoshida all hit from that side as well. The right-handed Rob Refsnyder can help out a bit but having Santander as an everyday option would help stabilize the whole group.
Ceddanne Rafaela could be involved in the outfield group as well but he’s a glove-first option who can also play the infield. Roman Anthony is one of the top prospects in the sport but he has not yet turned 21 years old and only has 35 games of Triple-A experience thus far. He is also a left-handed hitter, so he’ll exacerbate the club’s slant in that direction even if he earns his way into the big league plans.
The Sox have been looking to be aggressive this winter with the rotation being a primary focus but adding Santander or another big bat to the lineup would obviously help as well. They are reportedly even willing to pay the luxury tax under the right circumstances. RosterResource currently projects the club’s tax number at $181MM, which is $60MM below next year’s base threshold of $241MM. That should give them enough wiggle room to sign Santander or another outfielder as well as a notable starting pitcher, if they so choose. The Sox have been connected to various rotation options, including Corbin Burnes and Max Fried.
The Jays and Yankees have been connected to just about every big-name free agent, though both clubs have been focused on Soto until now. The coming days should see them pivot and gauge the market on guys like Fried, Burnes, Santander, Hernández, Alex Bregman and others, as those guys have each been connected to both the Yankees and Jays in rumors this offseason.
The loss of Soto obviously leaves a huge hole in the Yankee outfield, so they will surely be considering various options to bolster the group alongside Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham and Jasson Domínguez. That could include the aforementioned free agents but the Yanks have reportedly contacted the Cubs about a Cody Bellinger trade.
The Jays have George Springer and Daulton Varsho as their two most established outfielders, though Varsho is recovering from shoulder surgery and might not be ready for Opening Day. They have Nathan Lukes, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase and other guys on the roster but those guys are all fairly limited in terms of their major league experience.
Santander rejected a qualifying offer from the Orioles at season’s end, so that club will receive draft pick compensation if he ultimately signs elsewhere. That feels fairly inevitable now that they have an agreement with O’Neill, effectively replacing Santander in the club’s outfield mix. If Santander signs a contract worth more than $50MM, the O’s will get a pick after the first round of the upcoming draft. The signing club will also be subject to penalties, depending on whether they are revenue sharing recipients or paid the competitive balance tax in 2024.