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Blue Jays Reportedly Sign Paolo Espino

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The Blue Jays and right-hander Paolo Espino are in agreement on a contract, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post. There are no details on the specifics of the deal, though it’s presumably a minor league pact with an invite to major league Spring Training.

Espino, 37 next month, started his professional career all the way back in 2006 when he was drafted by Cleveland in the 10th round of that year’s draft. He first broke into the big leagues more than a decade later with a 6.00 ERA in 24 innings of work split between the Brewers and Rangers during the 2017 season. Espino was then relegated to the minors for the next two seasons before eventually resurfacing with the Nationals during the 2020 season. Though he pitched just six innings for the club during the shortened season, the performance went reasonably well as he posted a 4.50 ERA and 4.02 FIP with seven strikeouts across two appearances.

That cup of coffee with the Nationals in 2020 kicked off a four-year stint in D.C. that saw Espino relied upon as a swingman for the rebuilding club. Espino appeared in 77 games for the Nationals between 2021 and 2022, drawing 38 starts and pitching 223 innings during that time. While his numbers, while unimpressive, were more or less that which would be expected of a club’s #5 or #6 starter: a 4.56 ERA (88 ERA+) and a 4.70 FIP despite a meager 19.5% strikeout rate thanks in large part to a walk rate of just 5.2%.

Things took a turn for the worse for Espino in 2023. The veteran righty pitched just four innings for the big league club this past season, and was lit up for 11 runs on 14 hits and three walks while striking out just three in that limited time on the mound. Though Espino’s 13 starts at the Triple-A level went better as he posted a 4.33 ERA across 60 1/3 innings of work, Espino’s season came to an end in July when the righty was placed on the injured list due to a flexor strain. The end of his time in the Nationals organization came shortly thereafter, as the club placed Espino on release waivers in early August.

Since then, Espino has made nine starts in the Dominican Winter League, pitching to a strong 2.40 ERA in 48 2/3 innings of work while striking out 25.8% of batters faced. That strong performance clearly caught the attention of the Blue Jays, who decided to take a chance on Espino as a depth option headed into the 2024 season. The club appears set in the rotation with a quintet of Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Bassitt, and Alek Manoah penciled in while the club prepares for the arrival of top prospect Ricky Tiedemann, but Espino could act as a depth option alongside the likes of Bowden Francis and Wes Parsons or perhaps provide competition for Mitch White as the club’s long relief option out of the bullpen.

Padres Discussed Jake Cronenworth Trade With Blue Jays

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The Padres had talks with the Blue Jays about a possible trade involving Jake Cronenworth, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports.  These discussions notably took place prior to the trade that saw the Padres move Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankeees, and Rosenthal now suggests that Cronenworth might not be moved since San Diego would be moving another left-handed hitter from a lineup that now tilts rather heavily to the right side.

Rosenthal’s suggestion notwithstanding, the Padres’ payroll balance might be a bigger factor than lineup balance in gauging a Cronenworth trade.  Cost-cutting has been the central theme of the Friars’ offseason, as the team is looking to reset its luxury tax status and perhaps drop the payroll under $200MM, from an approximate $255MM figure in 2023.  This was the chief reasoning behind the Soto trade, as well as Grisham’s inclusion in the deal to move some extra salary off the books.  The Padres also dealt Matt Carpenter to the Braves in another salary dump of a move, while free agent pitchers Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez have all signed elsewhere (and Blake Snell and Josh Hader also doesn’t seem likely to be re-signed).

With this focus in mind, it is hard to imagine that the Padres wouldn’t also be eager to get Cronenworth’s contract off the books.  The infielder is still owed $78MM over the course of a seven-year extension that officially begins with the 2024 season, and that deal now looks like a front office misfire in the wake of Cronenworth’s disappointing 2023 campaign.  While Cronenworth hit a solid .256/.338/.431 over 1519 plate appearances for San Diego from 2020-22, he stumbled to a .229/.312/.378 slash line in 522 PA last season and suffered a right wrist fracture that ended his year in late August.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently looked at the obvious difficulties San Diego would face in trying to trade Cronenworth at this low point in his value, and it seems very unlikely the Padres would be able to swing a deal unless they either ate a big chunk of Cronenworth’s deal, or took on another undesirable contract in return.  As such, it might benefit the Friars to just hang onto Cronenworth and hope that he can rebound next season — either to boost his trade value or simply to reclaim his spot as a building block in the team’s future.

From the Blue Jays’ perspective, acquiring Cronenworth makes sense given the club’s needs at second base and third base.  The versatile infielder has primarily played at the keystone at the MLB level, though he could chip in at third base in a pinch, and also act as a backup for Toronto at shortstop and first base, to boot.  The Jays are also short on left-handed hitters, though naturally the bigger question would be whether Cronenworth would provide much of a lineup upgrade given his 2023 struggles.

It is fair to assume that Toronto’s inquiries didn’t involve the Jays picking up even the majority of Cronenworth’s deal, unless perhaps the interest was also tied into the Blue Jays’ known interest in Soto.  This is purely speculative on my part, but the Jays might’ve considered the idea of taking on the bulk of Cronenworth’s contract in addition to Soto, as a way of reducing the prospect cost that would’ve gone back to San Diego in return.  This tactic would’ve added quite of bit of extra money to Toronto’s payroll, yet the Jays might’ve considered it worthwhile to land Soto even for a year, and without dealing from its minor league ranks.  If Cronenworth had then bounced back in a Jays uniform, that would’ve been an additional long-term bonus.

While Grisham was unloaded as part of the actual Soto trade with the Yankees, the Padres prioritized talent acquisition rather than pure salary offload in the eventual deal, upgrading their rotation with pitchers who can help now (i.e. Michael King) and in the future.  Given how the Padres still plan to compete in 2024 rather than embark on a pure fire sale, watering down Soto’s trade value by attaching a more cumbersome contract like Cronenworth’s extension to the package wouldn’t have been the wiser long-term play.

Eight Teams Combine For Record $209.8MM In Luxury Tax Bills

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Major League Baseball has finalized the luxury tax calculations for the 2023 season, and the eight teams over the Competitive Balance Tax threshold will combine for a total bill of $209.8MM, Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports.  Both the total number of tax-paying teams and the total sum are new records, surpassing the previous highs of six teams (in 2016 and 2022) and $78.5MM (in 2022).

Here is what each of the eight teams owes for surpassing at least the $233MM base CBT threshold….

  • Mets: $100,781,932
  • Padres: $39.7MM
  • Yankees: $32.4MM
  • Dodgers: $19.4MM
  • Phillies: $6.98MM
  • Blue Jays: $5.5MM
  • Braves: $3.2MM
  • Rangers: $1.8MM

As a reminder of how the luxury tax operates, the CBT figures are determined by the average annual value of salaries for players on the 40-man roster.  A player earning $20MM over two seasons, for example, has a CBT number of $10MM, even if the player might earn $8MM in the first year of the contract and $12MM in the second year.  Deferred money in a contract can reduce a luxury tax number to some extent — most famously, Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM deal with the Dodgers contains $680MM in deferred money, so his CBT hit will be roughly $46MM per season instead of $70MM.

A team is considered a “first-time payor” if they haven’t spent above the CBT threshold in the previous season.  A first-time payor would owe a 20% surcharge on any dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, 32% of anything between $253MM and $273MM, 62.5% on anything between $273MM and $293MM, and then 80% of overages for anything beyond $293MM.  These percentages rise if a team is a tax payor for two consecutive seasons, and then even further if a team exceeds the CBT line in three or more consecutive seasons.  This year’s CBT class featured three first-time payors (Texas, Atlanta, Toronto), three two-time payors (Philadelphia, both New York teams) and two three-time payors (San Diego, Los Angeles).

The $293MM threshold was instituted in the last Collective Bargaining Agreement as a fourth penalty tier, and it is unofficially known as the “Steve Cohen Tax” in a reference to the Mets owner’s penchant for big spending.  Even though New York has only topped the CBT whatsoever in 2022 and 2023, it isn’t surprising that Cohen’s team set new standards for tax payouts.  The Mets’ tax payroll of $374.7MM and approximate $100.78MM tax bill far exceeded the 2015 Dodgers’ previous records of $291.1MM and $43.6MM, respectively.

This bill would’ve been even higher if the Mets hadn’t unexpectedly struggled, and unloaded some expensive contracts at the trade deadline in order to save some money and reload with an eye towards probably 2025 as a more clear-cut return to contention.  Blum also notes that the Mets received a $2,126,471 tax credit related to a CBA provision, which slightly reduced their bill further.

As always, the actual financial cost of exceeding the tax is perhaps the least-important part of the penalties, especially for teams who barely across the first threshold.  Teams who exceed the CBT line would face further punishment in regards to free agents who reject qualifying offers, whether that translates to additional compensation required to sign a QO-rejecting player, or lesser compensation received if a team’s own qualified free agent signs elsewhere.  For instance, signing Ohtani cost the Dodgers not just $700MM, but also $1MM in international draft pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft.  For a team like the Padres, should Blake Snell or Josh Hader sign elsewhere, San Diego’s compensatory draft selection wouldn’t come until after the fourth round of the 2024 draft.

Spending on talent is more often than not a recipe for success on the field, though obviously hardly a guarantee.  The Mets had a losing record, and the Padres and Yankees each squeaked over the .500 mark with 82-80 records.  The other five tax payors reached the playoffs, though the Phillies and the World Series champion Rangers were the only members of that group of five to win at least one postseason series.

The $209.8MM in tax revenues will be split up in three ways by the league.  The first $3.5MM is devoted to funding player benefits, $103.15MM will go towards funding individual player retirement accounts, and the other $103.15MM will be put into a supplemental commissioner’s discretionary fund and distributed amongst revenue-sharing recipient teams who have grown their (non-media) local revenue over a pre-determined number of years.

Blue Jays Have Some Interest In Rhys Hoskins, Justin Turner

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The Blue Jays have some level of interest in Rhys Hoskins and Justin Turner as they evaluate their options at designated hitter, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. That’s part of a wide net being cast by the front office, as Nicholson-Smith reiterates previously reported ties to J.D. Martinez, Joc Pederson and Joey Votto as well.

Toronto has a vacancy at DH with Brandon Belt returning to the open market. Bringing in a left-handed bat to complement a lineup led by Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Danny Jansen would be ideal, but the interest in Martinez suggests they’re not limiting themselves solely to lefty hitters. GM Ross Atkins has alluded to the potential for multiple lineup additions, after all. The Jays could add a right-handed DH while bringing in a lefty bat in the outfield.

Hoskins lost the 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He’d likely have made it back as a DH or pinch-hitting option had the Phillies made the World Series. While that didn’t happen, the 30-year-old (31 in March) projects as one of the better offensive players on the market. Hoskins has been a consistent middle-of-the-order presence throughout his career, compiling a .242/.353/.492 line. He has hit between 27 and 34 home runs in each of the four full seasons he’s played while running better than average walk rates on an annual basis.

Turner has been a consistently strong lineup presence as well. He hasn’t had a below-average offensive season since his 2014 breakout with the Dodgers. At age 39, he’s no longer suited for 140+ starts at third base. Yet Turner could serve as a primary DH while rotating in at the hot corner, where the Jays have a question with Matt Chapman still in free agency. Turner is still more than capable of handling a primary DH role. He’s coming off an impressive .276/.345/.455, 23-homer showing for the Red Sox.

It doesn’t seem either player is a priority target for the Toronto front office. Nicholson-Smith suggests the Jays could wait out the market for another few weeks to determine whether anyone in a broad group of hitters of interest presents strong value later in the offseason.

Hoskins has also drawn reported interest from the Cubs, Mariners and Nationals. Turner has been on the radar of the incumbent Red Sox, Mets and Diamondbacks. MLBTR predicted Hoskins to land a two-year, $36MM guarantee that allows him to opt out after next season, although a standard one-year pillow contract is also possible. Turner seems likelier to sign for one year given his age, but he could also command a salary in the $16-18MM range.

Dodgers Considering $250MM+ Offer To Yamamoto

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The Dodgers are considering presenting an offer in the $250-300MM range to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, reports Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times. Reports from yesterday indicated that teams are likely to put forth contract proposals to the NPB star this week, with a decision perhaps coming by Monday.

Yamamoto’s landing spot and price point are perhaps the biggest remaining story of the offseason. The 25-year-old righty has emerged as the clear top free agent after Shohei Ohtani came off the board. It is believed the field has narrowed to seven teams: the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies and Blue Jays.

This morning, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic indicated Philadelphia and Toronto are more on the outside of the market and could be longer shots. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith echoes that with regards to the Jays, reporting that Toronto is less likely to be one of the top finalists on Yamamoto than they were on Ohtani.

Meanwhile, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes that the pitcher’s visit to the East Coast last week only consisted of a stop in New York to chat with the Yankees and Mets. While the Red Sox and Phils conducted in-person interviews with Yamamoto, officials from both teams met with the pitcher and his representatives in Los Angeles.

In recent weeks, there has been increasing speculation the price tag could exceed $300MM. That’s particularly true when considering the accompanying posting fee that would be owed to his former team, the Orix Buffaloes. An MLB club would owe the Buffaloes 20% of the contract’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM), and 15% of additional spending.

An offer of $250MM to Yamamoto, which seems a conservative estimate of his earning power at this point given the robust interest, would require a $39.375MM posting fee. That’d put the total commitment a little north of $289MM. If a team were to offer Yamamoto $300MM, that’d come with a $46.875MM posting sum that pushes their spending to nearly $347MM.

Of course, that’s even before getting to luxury tax implications — which would come into play for the known suitors aside from Boston and San Francisco. The Dodgers have a competitive balance tax projection around $256MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That places them right on the border of the $257MM second threshold of penalization.

As a payor for the third straight year, they’d be taxed at a 62% rate for spending between $257MM and $277MM and at a 95% clip on money from $277MM to $297MM (with a 110% tax on any spending thereafter). Signing Yamamoto would push them past the $277MM threshold with ease, quite likely tacking on another $17MM or more in taxes in year one. To be clear, only the amount paid to Yamamoto would factor into the competitive balance tax calculation; the posting fee is not part of that calculus.

Of course, the deferrals in the Ohtani deal (along with lesser but still notable deferrals for Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman) lower their immediate raw payroll. Their actual salary commitments for next season are south of $200MM, well below the approximate $223MM mark they carried into 2023.

Los Angeles certainly isn’t the only team weighing an offer in this range for the three-time Sawamura Award winner. If Yamamoto signs elsewhere, Harris suggests that L.A. is likelier to turn to the trade market for pitching help as opposed to pivoting to another top free agent like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. The Dodgers already struck for Tyler Glasnow on the trade front but remain on the hunt for starting pitching behind their top three of Glasnow, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller.

Latest On Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

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There’s been ample speculation about the eventual price tag of a Yoshinobu Yamamoto contract, but until early this week, the right-hander hadn’t discussed specific years and dollars with clubs, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.

Teams eyeing the NPB ace’s services were asked to submit a “preliminary” bid early in the process to gauge the seriousness of their interest, per Passan, but a follow-up round of more concrete bidding hadn’t taken place prior to this week. Yamamoto has met with several teams recently, presumably to familiarize himself with each organization and the systems and personnel in place at each potential landing spot. Entering the week, no teams had made a formal offer of $300MM or more, despite speculation to the contrary; none, in fact, had submitted a formal offer even beyond that preliminary bid. Passan wrote that some clubs have tried to broach the subject of years and dollars, but Yamamoto’s camp preferred to hold off until this week.

The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies and perhaps the Blue Jays among the teams reported to have met with Yamamoto over the past 14 days. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic characterized both the Phillies and Blue Jays as teams more on the periphery of the bidding as of this morning, however (video link). It takes only one aggressive bid to change that perception, of course, but it’s notable that they’re being framed in that manner at present.

The two New York clubs have long been known to be serious bidders for Yamamoto, though the manner in which he fits into each club’s landscape of potential offseason moves is quite different. The Yankees, for instance, have no intention of easing up even if they miss on Yamamoto. If they can’t lure the 25-year-old righty to the Bronx, Rosenthal suggests they’ll look to bolster the roster elsewhere. Among the possibilities he lays out are a run at bringing Jordan Montgomery back to the Bronx or perhaps building a stacked bullpen with pursuits of top-tier relievers like Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson.

That seems to be a direct contrast to how the Mets are approaching the situation. The Athletic’s Will Sammon wrote over the weekend that the Mets are focused on Yamamoto and Yamamoto alone; they’re not expected to change course and pursue other marquee additions if Yamamoto ultimately signs elsewhere. Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the Mets will submit a formal offer to Yamamoto in the next couple of days, adding that the team’s expectation has been that Yamamoto will reach a decision before next Monday. That’s entirely dependent on the player’s mindset, of course; Yamamoto’s 45-day negotiation window with MLB clubs doesn’t draw to a close until Jan. 4.

MLBTR polled readers last week, with more than 27% indicating they believe Yamamoto will sign somewhere between $300-325MM, not including the posting/release fee owed to his former club, the Orix Buffaloes. The Yankees and Dodgers were the top predicted landing spots, with both drawing about 22% of the vote (though the Yankees technically garnered 88 more of the 17,000+ votes than the Dodgers).

The Best Remaining Fits For Cody Bellinger

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For the past six weeks, the offseason has centered on three individuals: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the first two having found new homes and Yamamoto expected to choose his team within a week or two, there’s likely to be greater attention placed on Cody Bellinger.

MLBTR’s #2 free agent entering the winter, Bellinger has had a quiet offseason since declining his end of a mutual option and rejecting a qualifying offer from the Cubs. Early reports tied the lefty-hitting center fielder to the Yankees, Giants and Blue Jays. The incumbents have some amount of interest in a reunion, although the presence of highly-regarded rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong gives them leverage to pass on what’s surely still a lofty asking price.

Last week, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote that Bellinger’s camp at the Boras Corporation were seeking to reach or surpass $200MM. Yet it’s fair to presume that the former MVP’s market has dwindled over the past month. Along with Soto, the Yankees acquired Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham to join Aaron Judge in the outfield. San Francisco signed Jung Hoo Lee to play center field instead. That knocks out the two teams widely perceived as the favorites. (At the beginning of the offseason, every MLBTR staffer pegged the Giants or Yankees as Bellinger’s landing spot in our Free Agent prediction contest.)

Where does that leave things for the two-time All-Star?

Likeliest Fits

  • Angels: It’s difficult to identify exactly where the Angels go from here. Los Angeles has thus far limited its offseason activity to a trio of low-cost middle relief additions (Luis García, Adam Cimber and Adam Kolarek). Ohtani was their top priority. After losing him, they’ll need to determine how aggressively to add to a roster that won only 73 games despite his MVP performance. GM Perry Minasian and new skipper Ron Washington have been clear they’re not about to rebuild. Bringing in a front-line starting pitcher appears the top priority, but they’ll also need to address a lineup that ranked 16th in runs and lost a .304/.412/.654 hitter. Bellinger would give the Angels an option to cover center field if Mike Trout needs any time on the injured list. He’d push Mickey Moniak to a fourth outfield role and could take some of the available DH at-bats. He’s also a marquee name who starred in Los Angeles, which could hold appeal to owner Arte Moreno.
  • Blue Jays: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the Jays looked like the top suitor for Bellinger. It’s not hard to see why. The Jays came up empty on their pursuits of Ohtani and Soto. While no one would consider Bellinger the same kind of upgrade, Toronto still has ample short-term payroll space and a need for a left-handed bat. They’re also without a clear answer in center field after Kevin Kiermaier hit free agency. The Jays could sign a corner outfielder and bump Daulton Varsho to center (or simply try to re-sign Kiermaier), but Bellinger is the best all-around position player on the open market.
  • Cubs: Bellinger was among the Cubs’ most valuable players a season ago. While they may have initially viewed him as a one-year stopgap to Crow-Armstrong, there’s an argument for bringing him back. The Cubs don’t have a clear option at first base, where Bellinger is a plus defender. His ability to play all three outfield spots would afford the organization the flexibility to start Crow-Armstrong in Triple-A (where he struck out at a concerning rate in 34 games last season) without needing to rely on journeyman Mike Tauchman to maintain his surprisingly strong form from 2023. Even if Tauchman and/or Crow-Armstrong prove deserving of everyday playing time, the Cubs could rotate Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki through designated hitter to keep their outfield fresh.

Longer Shots

  • Mets: New York could upgrade over either Starling Marte or DJ Stewart in the corner outfield. There’s room for Bellinger to join Brandon Nimmo as a long-term outfield investment, but it doesn’t seem that’s how the front office is approaching this winter. The Mets are in on Yamamoto but appear to view him as an exceptional case in what’d otherwise be a relatively quiet offseason as they focus primarily on 2025.
  • Nationals: While Washington isn’t an immediate contender, they could make a legitimate push for the playoffs by the ’25 season. Bellinger, who turned 28 in July, would still project as a productive player during that window. The Nats have top outfield prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood looming, but only Lane Thomas should have a short-term spot locked down. The Nationals struck early on the Jayson Werth signing to accelerate a rebuild a decade ago. There’d be some sense in doing that again, but they’ve been fairly quiet in recent offseasons and still have organizational uncertainty regarding their local TV deal as part of the contentious MASN arrangement with the Orioles.
  • Phillies: Philadelphia is involved on Yamamoto, suggesting an ability to stretch the budget for the right player. Whether Bellinger qualifies isn’t clear. Brandon Marsh is a solid center field option, while the Phils have Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache as options for the corner opposite Nick Castellanos. It’s not a terrible outfield, but it’s also perhaps the weakest area of an otherwise excellent roster. The Phils haven’t shied away from pursuing star talent under owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

Payroll Questions

  • Mariners: Seattle is likely to bring in at least one outfielder to join Julio Rodríguez and a group that otherwise consists of players like Dominic Canzone, Taylor Trammell and Sam Haggerty. Bellinger fits on the roster, but the M’s have thus far sliced payroll amidst uncertainty about the revenues from their local TV deal with Root Sports. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto hasn’t signed a free agent hitter to a multi-year contract in his eight-plus years leading the Seattle front office. Breaking that streak with Bellinger would be a massive shift in operating procedure.
  • Padres: Much of what applies to the Mariners can be said about the Padres. They want to compete after a disappointing playoff miss. They need outfield help to do so. Yet they’re also facing questions about their broadcasting deal and have only cut payroll so far this offseason. With Lee’s six-year, $113MM deal pushing beyond their spending range, it’s hard to see how they could make Bellinger work.
  • Rangers: The defending World Series winners could ostensibly make room for Bellinger, perhaps by trading incumbent center fielder Leody Taveras to address an injury-plagued rotation. GM Chris Young has suggested they’re unlikely to make the kind of free agent splash they have in prior offseasons, though, so it’s far likelier they stick with an internal group of Adolis García, Taveras and Evan Carter while awaiting the arrival of top prospect Wyatt Langford.

Blue Jays Interested In Jonathan India

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Jonathan India’s name has been swirling in trade rumors for months, and the Blue Jays are the latest team to show some interest in the Reds second baseman, according to Bob Elliott of the Canadian Baseball Network (X link).  Toronto has been mentioned as a speculative fit for India given the Jays’ need for second base help, though there isn’t any indication that a trade might be close, or whether this is anything beyond due diligence on the Blue Jays’ part.

Since Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield are both in the free agent market, the Jays have been left pretty thin at both second and third base.  In-house candidates Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, and Ernie Clement are all on the big league roster, while any of Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez, or Leo Jimenez could make their Major League debuts in 2024 and work their way into the infield picture.

While Toronto has plenty of options in terms of volume, however, there isn’t much in the way of proven Major League capability.  Biggio and Espinal have been inconsistent during their big league tenures, Schneider and Clement both hit very well in small sample sizes in 2023, and the rest have no big league track records at all (though Martinez and Barger are highly-regarded prospects).

India could provide an answer at second base, though the former NL Rookie of the Year isn’t exactly a sure thing coming off two somewhat underwhelming seasons.  Since winning the ROY in 2021, India has hit .246/.333/.394 with 27 homers over 960 plate appearances for Cincinnati, with hamstring injuries and plantar fasciitis impacting his ability to stay on the field.  Public defensive metrics have also been very unimpressed with India’s glovework, so his contributions as a second baseman specifically could be limited.

Even with these factors in mind, India just turned 27 two days ago and is only entering the first of three arbitration-eligible years, so Cincinnati normally wouldn’t be looking to trade such a controllable player.  And, technically, the Reds aren’t open to a deal, as president of baseball operations Nick Krall has stated that the team isn’t “motivated” to move India elsewhere.  The question of big league experience is also a factor in Cincinnati, as while the Reds are overloaded with young infielders ready for more MLB time, Krall also values the stability and depth India brings in the event of injury problems, or if some of the youngsters need more minor league seasoning.

That said, the Reds’ signing of Jeimer Candelario only added to the infield surplus.  If Candelario is now taking regular time at third base, that leaves India, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, and Noelvi Marte all competing for middle infield spots.  Even if Candelario slides over to first base, Christian Encarnacion-Strand also needs a place to play, and the DH position provides some a few extra at-bats for the Reds to juggle all these options.

The fit in Toronto also wouldn’t be perfect.  As noted, India would be a defensive downgrade at second base, and the keystone is also the better defensive spot for most of the Blue Jays’ in-house options.  In his look at India’s trade market last month, MLBTR’s Nick Deeds observed that while the Jays are planning to contend in 2024, they also might not want to block Schneider or Clement entirely from at least semi-regular playing time.  Speculatively, an India trade package could involve the Jays sending one of their most experienced infielders (i.e. Biggio or Espinal) back to Cincinnati so the Reds could have some of the depth they crave, though pitching is the Reds’ greatest need.

It has been a quiet winter in terms of actual transactions if not headlines in Toronto, as the Blue Jays’ business has in some ways been impeded by their pursuit of Shohei Ohtani.  Obviously GM Ross Atkins and his front office weren’t singularly focused on Ohtani over the offseason’s first six weeks, yet after coming up short to the Dodgers in the Ohtani race, the Jays still have a pretty full to-do list that includes the two infield positions, left field, DH, and perhaps the rotation and bullpen.

Cody Bellinger Reportedly Seeking $200MM Or More In Free Agency

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With superstar slugger Shohei Ohtani now off the board after signing on with the Dodgers, the market has seemingly begun to come into focus for center fielder Cody Bellinger, the clear #2 position player on the free agent market this offseason. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Bellinger and agent Scott Boras are seeking “$200MM plus” in contract talks this winter.

That Bellinger is in position to even approach that figure is nothing short of incredible given the brutal fashion his time in LA came to an end. The outfielder dealt with shoulder, rib, and leg injuries throughout the 2021 season and struggled badly when he managed to take the field that season, posting an abysmal .165/.240/.302 slash line across 350 trips to the plate that season. While he was able to avoid the injured list in 2022, the diminished results lingered as he slashed just .210/.265/.389, prompting the Dodgers to non-tender him last offseason.

Not long after being non-tendered, Bellinger took a one-year deal with the Cubs and entered the 2023 campaign hoping to rebuild his value ahead of another trip to the open market after the season. He certainly succeeded in that effort, slashing .307/.356/.525 while earning a top ten finish in NL MVP voting and the second Silver Slugger award of his career. While this new-look Bellinger came with potential red flags regarding his quality of contact in 2023, MLBTR nonetheless projected him for a twelve-year, $264MM deal in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, the second-highest projected guarantee after Ohtani.

Since then, many of Bellinger’s potential suitors on the free agent market have gone in other directions. The Yankees landed a trio of left-handed hitting outfielders in Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, and Alex Verdugo on the trade market, seemingly leaving no room for Bellinger on their roster. Meanwhile, the Giants recently landed outfielder Jung Hoo Lee on a six-year, $113MM contract. While it’s certainly feasible that San Francisco could have the resources available to land Bellinger as well, between the club’s existing outfield logjam and need for pitching, it seems more likely that the club would pursue top arms like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and Shota Imanaga than double up on talent in center field with a Bellinger signing.

That’s not to say that Bellinger’s market is completely devoid of suitors, of course. The Blue Jays haven’t been shy about their pursuit of a top-of-the-market lefty slugger this offseason, and Bellinger is the clear best player available to fill that niche with both Ohtani and Soto now off the board. Given that, it’s no surprise that Heyman suggests that Toronto is “expected to be a player” for Bellinger this offseason. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale takes things a step further, suggesting that the Blue Jays could be a “favorite” for the 28-year-old’s services this winter. Looking beyond Toronto, both Heyman and Nightengale also indicate that the incumbent Cubs could be a factor in Bellinger’s market this offseason while Nightengale also suggests the Padres as a potential suitor.

Any interest from Chicago or San Diego seemingly comes with caveats, however. The Padres are reportedly facing severe financial constrains and hope to duck under the luxury tax in 2024, and committing $200MM or more to Bellinger would eat away most of the savings the club procured by dealing Soto and Grisham to the Bronx earlier this month. Meanwhile, reports from Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic indicate that the Cubs could prefer to wait out the market and see if Bellinger “falls” to them on a more palatable deal than the outfielder’s current price tag. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have no such apparent financial restraints or reservations. Of course, it’s possible that another team in need of outfield help such as the Mariners could jump into the fray and change the outlook of Bellinger’s market as the offseason continues.

Agent Nez Balelo Discusses Shohei Ohtani’s Free Agency

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With Shohei Ohtani now officially a member of the Dodgers and in possession of a record-setting 10-year, $700MM contract, agent Nez Balelo pulled back the curtain a bit on Ohtani’s very secretive free agent explorations in an interview with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

The purposeful lack of direct information about the Ohtani sweepstakes only added to the firestorm of media speculation about where the two-way superstar might land, and the tight hand that Balelo reportedly kept on the proceedings drew some criticism for its perceived over-the-top nature.  However, the CAA agent unsurprisingly didn’t have any regrets about the tactics.

“I’m so glad we did it this way, and I would do the same thing over and over again.  There’s not even a question in my mind,” Balelo said.  “The clubs appreciated it and respected it.  There wasn’t a team that said, ’You know what, let’s just get this out.’  Shohei and I wanted to be able to control the narrative, and teams were on board with it.  I heard that some media members felt that I needed to share information because this is a historical moment, but I 100% disagree.  I can’t even begin to even think how that makes sense.  There has to be a level of confidentiality….This was arguably the most highly exposed free agent ever on the market, and ultimately, I got the best result.  So how can you judge and criticize the way that I approached this?“

That said, Balelo also seemed to push back against reports that suggested any public acknowledgement by a team of its interest in Ohtani could or would detract from the team’s chances.  “That was ridiculous.  Those words never came out of my mouth,” Balelo said, pointing out that Dodgers manager Dave Roberts’ admission at the Winter Meetings that L.A. was in on Ohtani “sure didn’t have an effect, did it?”

Ohtani said during Spring Training that he wanted to test free agency and not discuss an extension with the Angels during the season, allowing Balelo and the CAA team to craft “a well thought-out approach” months in advance of Ohtani’s official entry into the market.  Balelo met with executives from several teams during the GM Meetings, which the agent viewed as “a good gauge of where the interest level was, to understand who was serious, and who really who was just kicking the tires.  There were a lot of teams that weren’t going to be in play because of the level of [money] where they all felt this was going to go.  So that that pretty much eliminated half the field.”

As more and more teams fell out of the race, the five finalists were the Dodgers, Angels, Giants, Cubs, and Blue Jays.  “The Dodgers were always at the forefront in talks,” Nightengale writes, and Balelo similarly wasn’t surprised when Ohtani informed his agent late in the afternoon on December 8 that he had decided to sign with Los Angeles.

This happened to be the same day that multiple reports suggested Ohtani had agreed to a deal with the Jays, and was en route to Toronto in a private jet.  Balelo described the situation as “about the most reckless reporting I’ve ever experienced in this game,” as “I felt really, really bad for the country of Canada.  And I felt really, really bad for the Toronto Blue Jays organization.  They are really good people.  What they had to endure, and the pain, wasn’t right.  I felt so bad for all of them that they had to go through that because it was the extreme emotional roller coaster of thinking that they had him and then finding out they didn’t.”

The Dodgers weren’t officially told Ohtani’s decision until the next day, and Balelo then called the Jays, Giants, Cubs, and Angels in turn to also break the news before Ohtani officially announced his choice via Instagram.  Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman already had some inkling of Ohtani’s choice on December 8 when Balelo inquired whether the Dodgers would agree to Ohtani’s desire to defer the vast majority of his $700MM deal until 2034 and beyond.  This offer was already on the table, so the Dodgers made no late increase to convince Ohtani to sign.

Though deferrals have been a common part of baseball contracts for years, Ohtani’s choice to defer $680MM of his salary drew almost as many headlines as his decision itself.  In discussing the deferred money, Balelo noted that Ohtani is “in such a unique position because he’s going to make so much money off the field….Basically, he’s in the most unique position of any player in the history of the game to be able to do this.  It’s not like we’re setting a precedent that every player now is going to defer everything out in his contract.”

With Ohtani’s deferrals lowering his luxury tax hit to $46MM (rather than $70MM) per season, the Dodgers will very significantly benefit from a Competitive Balance Tax standpoint, and Ohtani will cost himself some overall money due to inflation and the value of money today against money earned in a decade’s time.  Balelo described Ohtani’s decision as “the most incredible act of unselfishness and willingness to win that I’ve ever experienced in my life, or ever will. He did not care at all about the present value inflation.  And you know what, neither did I.  He should be praised for this.  He did not want to handcuff a team with his salary.  He said, ’How can I contribute to a team and allow them to stay competitive?’  So he took the most unselfish approach possible and deferred everything.”

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