Cubs Sign Jameson Taillon
Dec. 19: The Cubs have formally announced their four-year deal with Taillon. They now have 39 players on their 40-man roster, though that doesn’t yet include Dansby Swanson, who agreed to a seven-year deal with the Cubs over the weekend.
Dec. 7: The Cubs have agreed to a four-year, $68MM deal with right-handed starter Jameson Taillon, according to Jesse Rogers and Jeff Passan of ESPN. Taillon is represented by Excel Sports Management. Taillon was one of the top remaining options on the starting pitching market.
Carlos Rodón is the lone ace who’s still unsigned, while players like Kodai Senga, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Noah Syndergaard join Taillon in the next tier. The Cubs have generally been expected to dip into free agency to address their rotation, and it appears they’ll indeed do so to snag a mid-rotation arm.
Once finalized, the deal will send Taillon back to the NL Central. He’s spent much of his career there, as he entered the professional ranks back in 2010 as the 2nd overall pick of the Pirates. He appeared among Baseball America’s top 30 overall prospects in each of the next five years, with his progression up the minor league ranks delayed by Tommy John surgery. By 2016, he got to the big leagues, breaking in with 18 starts of 3.38 ERA ball.
That kicked off a stretch of a few solid seasons in black and gold. Taillon combined for 57 starts over the next two years, posting a 3.71 ERA. He missed some time in 2017 battling testicular cancer but beat the disease quickly, remarkably missing only around one month. Taillon avoided the injured list through the end of the 2018 campaign thereafter, but his elbow blew out seven starts into the 2019 season. He underwent the second Tommy John surgery of his career that August, spending all of the following season rehabbing.
It proved an unwelcome end to his time in Pittsburgh, as the rebuilding Bucs flipped him to the Yankees over the 2020-21 offseason. New York surrendered four young players, including Roansy Contreras, to land Taillon. It was a bit of a gamble on him returning to health after the surgery, but he indeed came back as his previous mid-rotation self. Taillon’s two seasons in the Bronx were strikingly similar to his years in Pittsburgh.
Over his two-year run in pinstripes, he worked to a 4.08 ERA across 321 2/3 innings. The Texas native posted a 21.9% strikeout rate that’s right around league average and walked fewer than 6% of his opponents. His ground-ball and hard contact rates allowed were middle-of-the-pack, but he pounded the strike zone and handled hitters from both sides of the dish reasonably well. His stuff also returned to just under pre-surgery levels. Taillon’s fastball has checked in right around 94 MPH in each of the past two seasons, while he relies on a mid-80s slider and a low-80s curveball as his secondary pitches.
Taillon turned 31 last month, so he should still have a few prime seasons ahead of him. There’s certainly risk in investing in a pitcher with two Tommy John surgeries on his medical chart, but he’s avoided any arm issues the past two years. His only IL stint was a brief absence for a calf issue late in the ’21 campaign.
The Cubs find themselves in a middle ground between retooling and full-fledged contention. They’re coming off a second straight losing season, but president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has suggested the front office planned to be active in bolstering the MLB roster. To that end, they’ve already agreed to terms with former MVP Cody Bellinger on a bounceback deal to play center field, and it appears Taillon will follow.
Starting pitching was one of the bigger questions on the roster. Chicago signed Marcus Stroman to a three-year guarantee last offseason. He’ll be in the starting five, although he can opt out at the end of next year. Kyle Hendricks is under contract for another season and would have a rotation spot if healthy, but he’s rehabbing from a capsule tear in his throwing shoulder. Justin Steele earned a rotation spot with a solid rookie season. The back end is completely up in the air, with players like Keegan Thompson, Adrian Sampson and rookies Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad and Caleb Kilian all jockeying for work. Adding a stable mid-rotation pitcher like Taillon makes plenty of sense for a team without many certain innings.
That’s particularly true since signing Taillon won’t cost the Cubs any draft choices. New York somewhat curiously opted not to issue him a $19.65MM qualifying offer at the end of the season, allowing him to hit the market unencumbered.
MLBTR predicted a four-year, $56MM contract entering the offseason, so Taillon’s deal comes in a bit above that. The rotation market has generally been more robust than anticipated thus far. Zach Eflin and Tyler Anderson both landed three-year deals in the $40MM range, while Taijuan Walker agreed to terms with the Phillies on a surprising four-year, $72MM guarantee earlier this evening.
Ken Rosenthal and Stephen Nesbitt of The Athletic were first to report that the Cubs were making a strong push for Taillon (link). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted that the sides were nearing an agreement. Jesse Rogers and Jeff Passan of ESPN announced the deal was agreed to and added financial terms.
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Padres, Max Schrock Agree To Minor League Deal
The Padres have agreed to a minor league contract with free-agent infielder Max Schrock, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The Icon client received an invitation to Major League Spring Training.
Shrock, 28, has spent parts of three seasons in the Majors, batting a combined .236/.292/.359 with four homers, seven doubles, a pair of triples, a 20.2% strikeout rate and a 5.1% walk rate in 237 trips to the plate between the Cardinals and Reds. The lefty-swinging Schrock has played second base, all four corner positions and even tossed a few innings of mop-up relief in his big league career thus far, though second base has been far and away his most frequent position (with third base the only other spot he’s seen more than occasional playing time).
Though he had a rough stretch in his first look at Triple-A as a 23-year-old back in 2018, Schrock has been productive there in 2019, 2021 and 2022; in that trio of Triple-A seasons he’s slashed .284/.354/.411 through 514 plate appearances.
The Padres’ starting infield is likely set, with Manny Machado at third base, Xander Bogaerts at shortstop, Ha-Seong Kim at second base and Jake Cronenworth likely sliding to first base. Fernando Tatis‘ Jr.’s eventual return will further deepen that mix, either pushing Kim to a utility role or creating a carousel where an infielder is slotting in at designated hitter most days. That said, the Padres’ bench is lacking in veteran options with MLB experience, so there could be some backup roles up for grabs. In that sense, Schrock’s experience at multiple spots and his left-handed bat (on a team with more righty-swinging starters) could work to his benefit.
Pirates Acquire Connor Joe From Rockies
The Pirates have acquired first baseman/outfielder Connor Joe from the Rockies in exchange for minor league righty Nick Garcia, as announced by both teams. To create room on the 40-man roster, Pittsburgh designated right-hander Nick Mears for assignment.
The move represents something of a homecoming for Joe, who was drafted 39th overall by the Pirates back in the 2014 draft. Joe never suited up for the Bucs at the Major League level, however, as Pittsburgh dealt him to the Braves for Sean Rodriguez in August 2017. After bouncing around to the Braves, Reds, Giants, and (twice) to the Dodgers over the next few seasons, Joe reached the big leagues with 16 plate appearances for the 2019 Giants, but he then sat out the 2020 season due to surgery related to testicular cancer.
Fortunately, Joe recovered and signed a minor league deal with the Rockies in the 2020-21 offseason. It was in Denver that Joe finally got an extended opportunity, and he has appeared in 174 games and received 678 plate appearances over the last two seasons. Joe hit .285/.379/.469 with eight homers over 211 PA in 2021, and after he got off to a great start this past year, it looked like the Rox had perhaps found a hidden gem. However, Joe cooled off, and finished 2022 with a .238/.338/.359 slash line and seven home runs over 467 PA.
The Pirates have also added Carlos Santana, Ji-Man Choi, and catcher Austin Hedges to their mix around the diamond, and Joe now joins these other veterans in augmenting Pittsburgh’s core of younger players. Joe has played first base and both corner outfield positions in his brief MLB career, with generally good defensive grades as a first baseman and left fielder. This makes Joe a good complement to Calvin Mitchell and Jack Suwinski (both left-handed hitters) in the Bucs’ corner outfield picture, and Joe could also join the left-handed hitting Choi and the switch-hitting Santana in sharing the first base/DH playing time.
Adding Joe meant parting ways with Garcia and possibly Mears, if another team claims the right-hander on waivers or if the Pirates simply released Mears once his DFA period is up. Mears has pitched 30 1/3 innings of 4.75 ERA ball for Pittsburgh over the last three seasons, with 23 1/3 of those frames coming in 2021. After undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove some scar tissue in March 2022, Mears didn’t make his season debut in the minors until late May, and he ended up pitching in only two games for the Pirates at the MLB level.
Garcia didn’t crack MLB Pipeline’s list of the Pirates’ top 30 prospects, though he did make a good accounting for himself in two seasons in Pittsburgh’s deep farm system. A third-round pick in the 2020 draft, Garcia has a 3.88 ERA over 187 2/3 innings and 46 games (36 of them starts) as a professional.
Garcia turns 24 in April, and is expected to move to Double-A after pitching only in high-A ball in 2022. Anthony Murphy of Pirates Prospects recently detailed Garcia’s improvements last season, and the fact that Garcia might still be something of an untapped resource certainly holds appeal to a Rockies team that is forever looking for pitchers who can handle Coors Field. As noted by Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette, the 30-year-old Joe might have been superfluous since prospect Sean Bouchard looks ready to fill a similar role on the big league roster, and thus the Rox moved the older player to bring a new young arm into the system.
Red Sox Agree To Sign Justin Turner
6:41PM: Another breakdown is provided by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who reports that Turner will earn $15MM in 2023, and then $7.7MM in 2024 if he exercises his player option. Another $1MM is available to Turner in incentive bonuses in 2023, as he can unlock a series of $200K bonuses if he reaches at least 480 plate appearances.
6:01PM: Alex Speier of The Boston Globe has a different set of contract numbers, reporting that Turner will get only $8.3MM in 2023 and then $11.4MM in 2024 if he exercises the player option. Unless is a signing bonus or buyout also attached to the deal, Speier’s report would indicate that Turner is only receiving $19.7MM in guaranteed salary. The $8.3MM figure in 2023 in particular looks like a very nice bargain for the Red Sox on what could well end up being a one-year commitment to a 38-year-old player.
5:26PM: Turner will earn $14MM in 2023, Heyman reports, and the 2024 player option is worth $8MM.
4:54PM: The Red Sox have agreed to a deal with infielder Justin Turner, according to ESPN’s Joon Lee and Jeff Passan (Twitter links). The two-year contract will pay Turner slightly less than $22MM, and Turner can opt out of the deal following the 2023 season. Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter links) reported earlier today that Turner and the Sox were “looking close” to working out a contract, and that Boston was “heavily” pursuing Turner. Michael Marino of Fantrax reported yesterday that Turner and the Sox were in talks. Turner is represented by Vayner Sports.
The Marlins, Diamondbacks, Twins, and Dodgers are the other teams publicly known to have some interest in Turner, and Miami made Turner an offer earlier this week. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald described the Marlins’ offer as “competitive,” and though the exact details of the offer weren’t known, Heyman wrote that the Marlins seemed open to giving Turner the multi-year deal he is seeking in free agency.
Turner (who is entering his age-38 season) did find that multi-year pact, though at a significant drop in average annual value from the $17MM he received in his previous two-year deal with the Dodgers. MLBTR projected Turner for only one guaranteed year, but for $14MM. The year-to-year breakdown of the new contract isn’t yet known, and the opt-out could indicate that Turner’s camp might essentially view this deal as a one-year pact, with an eye towards getting a larger multi-year contract next after on the heels of a big platform year at Fenway Park.
That said, it isn’t as though Turner underachieved in 2022, as he posted a strong 123 wRC+ after batting .278/.350/.438 with 13 homers over 532 plate appearances with the Dodgers. However, given how Turner’s usual offseason routine was thrown off-kilter was the lockout and the shortened Spring Training, he might well imagine that he could’ve hit much better had it not been for a very slow start. Turner had only a .611 OPS over his first 243 PA of the year, but then caught fire with a .940 OPS over his last 289 PA.
Despite this production and Turner’s long track record of success over nine seasons in Los Angeles, the Dodgers opted to decline their $16MM club option on Turner for 2023, instead buying him out for $2MM. The move was seemingly made to give the Dodgers some extra flexibility in regards to their payroll and luxury tax situation, as the Dodgers could conceivably use any of Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, or prospect Miguel Vargas at third base. While president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman repeatedly stated that the door was still open for a possible reunion with Turner, the Dodgers’ signing of J.D. Martinez yesterday seemed to hint that L.A. had moved on.
As it turned out, the Dodgers and Red Sox will unofficially swap veteran hitters, with Martinez heading to Los Angeles and Turner coming to Boston. Turner brings more defensive utility than Martinez, as Turner still saw quite a bit of action at third base last season, basically splitting his time between third and DH. Rafael Devers of course has priority at the hot corner in Boston, but the Red Sox could now use Turner at third base when Devers (a subpar defender) is given a DH day of his own. Turner hasn’t played at first base since 2016, but he could also conceivably get some time at the cold corner as a right-handed hitting complement to rookie Triston Casas.
Xander Bogaerts‘ departure to the Padres has led to a lot of hard feelings from Red Sox Nation directed towards ownership and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. Though Bogaerts is certainly a major loss, Bloom’s plan is to fill the void with multiple players, as Bloom has stated that he wanted to add roughly 7-9 new faces to the roster. That long list of needs has now been partially filled by Turner, Masataka Yoshida, and relievers Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Joely Rodriguez.
It would seem like starting pitching, catching, and the outfield remain on Bloom’s checklist, given the other players the Red Sox have at least checked in on this winter. But with Turner, the club reinforcements the corner infield/DH mix that Boston first looked to address by making a push for Jose Abreu, before Abreu signed with the Astros. The Red Sox made some room at first base by designing Eric Hosmer for assignment earlier this week, and though Hosmer was essentially a free player since the Padres were covering almost all of his remaining salary, the Sox were looking for either a more productive bat, or at least to more firmly clear a path for top prospect Casas.
After surpassing the luxury tax threshold in 2022, the Red Sox are thus far well under the $233MM threshold. That leaves Bloom with some opportunity to perhaps stay under the tax line, though given how Bloom and ownership were willing to pay the tax for even a rather remote shot at a playoff berth last year, one would imagine the Red Sox wouldn’t balk at paying another tax penalty for the right upside. Many of the offseason’s top free agents have already come off the board, but the Sox could still pursue other upgrades on the trade market.
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Marlins Sign Garrett Hampson To Minors Contract
The Marlins have signed utilityman Garrett Hampson to a minor league deal, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).
Hampson was a third-round pick for the Rockies in the 2016 draft, and he had spent his entire pro career with Colorado before being non-tendered last month. The 28-year-old was projected to earn $2.1MM in his second trip through the arbitration process, but the Rockies opted to part ways after Hampson hit only .211/.287/.307 over 226 plate appearances in 2022.
Both Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America included Hampson near the end of their top-100 prospect lists prior to the 2019 season, owing to Hampson’s high batting average, OBP, and stolen bases totals during his way up the Rockies’ minor league ladder. Unfortunately for Hampson, he couldn’t translate that potential into any production at the MLB level. While he has swiped 52 bases in 65 tries, Hampson hit only .235/.296/.370 over 1279 career PA in the majors.
This lack of hitting kept Hampson from firmly establishing himself with Colorado, though the Rox gave him opportunities as more or less an everyday player in 2020-21. Most of Hampson’s playing time came as a center fielder or second baseman, but he also has quite a bit of shortstop experience and a handful of games as a left fielder and third baseman.
There is a bit of a “jack of all trades, master of none” aspect to Hampson’s versatility, as while he can play several positions, defensive metrics are mixed at best on his glovework anywhere on the field. Smaller sample sizes are also a factor, though for his two primary positions, Hampson is graded as a slightly below-average but passable second baseman, and the Outs Above Average metric like his work (+8) as a center fielder, while UZR/150 (-1/2) and Defensive Runs Saved (-7) are less impressed.
Miami has long been looking for center field help, and Hampson could at least factor into a mix that includes Bryan De La Cruz, Jesus Sanchez, JJ Bleday, and utilityman Jon Berti. While a change of scenery might help Hampson at the plate, he could at least give the Marlins some additional utility depth beyond Berti, and Hampson’s speed is also a useful weapon to bring off the bench for pinch-running purposes. At the cost of just a minor league contract, there’s no risk for the Marlins in giving Hampson a Spring Training audition to see what he can offer.
Cubs, Drew Smyly Close To A Deal
The Cubs and starter Drew Smyly are closing in on a deal for the 2023 season, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. Reports emerged in early October that the two parties were involved in extension talks, but nothing came of those discussions before Smyly opted out of his side of a mutual option in November.
Smyly initially joined the Cubs after the 2021 season on a one-year, $4.25MM contract with a $1MM buyout on a $10MM mutual contract for the 2023 season, which Smyly declined, and $2.5MM in potential incentives. He would go on to make 22 starts, pitching to a 3.47 ERA in 106 1/3 innings with a slightly below-average 2o.4% strikeout rate but paired with a low 5.8% walk rate. Interestingly, despite ranking poorly in fastball velocity (20th percentile), fastball spin (24th percentile), and curve spin (8th percentile), Smyly posted a chase rate in the 77th percentile and limited hard hits (69th percentile).
Since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2017, Smyly has become a mercenary swingman, spending the 2019 season with the Rangers, joining the Brewers on a minor league deal in 2019 before finishing the season with the Phillies, spending the shortened 2020 year with the Giants, winning a World Series ring with the Braves during the 2021 season, and then joining the Cubs last winter. Over these four years, Smyly has made 71 starts (83 appearances) and pitched to a 4.65 ERA in 373 1/3 regular-season innings with a 22.9% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate.
The nine-year veteran will rejoin a rotation that includes Marcus Stroman, recent signee Jameson Taillon, and Justin Steele. Kyle Hendricks will likely have a spot on manager David Ross‘s staff, but the 30-year-old had yet to begin a throwing program as of late October after suffering a mid-season capsular tear.
The financial terms of the agreement are not yet clear. The Cubs presently have around $181MM in estimated commitments for 2023, not including Smyly, per Roster Resource. Their projected luxury tax ledger is around $203MM, leaving the possibility of adding with the base tax threshold set at $233MM.
KBO’s Hanwha Eagles Sign Burch Smith
The Hanwha Eagles of the KBO League have signed pitcher Burch Smith for the 2023 season, according to reports out of South Korea (hat tip to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net). Smith’s contract is worth up to $1MM, with the righty receiving a $100K signing bonus, $700K salary, and the opportunity to earn an additional $200K in incentives.
Initially drafted by the Padres in 2011, Smith would quickly debut for the team in 2013, albeit to a lackluster 6.44 ERA in 36 1/3 innings. He was traded to the Rays after the 2014 season and would soon undergo Tommy John surgery, missing the 2015 and 2016 seasons. He returned to the Majors in 2018 with the Royals, but once again pitched to an ineffective 6.92 ERA in 78 innings and was designated for assignment. Smith would go on to have short stints with the Brewers and Giants before latching on to a more permanent role with the Athletics during the 2021 season. Over parts of five MLB seasons, Smith holds a high 6.03 ERA in 191 innings with below-average strikeout and walk rates, 21.3% and 10.1%, respectively.
Smith transitioned overseas for the 2022 season, spending the year with the Saitama Seibu Lions of Japan’s NPB league. He was significantly more effective there, throwing 38 1/3 innings of 3.29 ERA baseball with a 23.7% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate.
Smith, who will be 33 years old in April, is now in line to play his second consecutive season overseas. There is little indication that the veteran reliever received any MLB interest prior to his contract with the Eagles. Instead, Smith will head to South Korea and earn significantly more than what he could have made from a potential minor league contract.
Dodgers Sign Bradley Zimmer To Minor League Deal
The Dodgers are set to sign outfielder Bradley Zimmer to a minor league contract, The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports (via Twitter). The Blue Jays non-tendered Zimmer in November rather than pay him a projected $1.3MM salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility.
Zimmer was a member of three different organizations in 2022, as he was traded from the Guardians to the Jays in April, and then claimed off waivers by the Phillies in August. Toronto claimed Zimmer back just over a week later, and Zimmer finished the season in a Blue Jays uniform. Over 117 total plate appearances with Toronto and Philadelphia, Zimmer hit only .124/.207/.229.
This lack of production outweighed the theoretical benefit that Zimmer’s left-handed bat brought to the Blue Jays’ extremely right-handed lineup, and he likely wouldn’t have received nearly as many at-bats had it not been for some injuries to Toronto’s starting outfielders. However, Zimmer added value off the bench as a pinch-runner, and he continued to deliver quality defense. Over 1783 1/3 career MLB innings as a center fielder, Zimmer has positive grades in Outs Above Average (+10), Defensive Runs Saved (+13), and UZR/150 (+3.6).
Once a top-100 prospect in his days in Cleveland’s farm system, Zimmer hasn’t been able to hit at the big league level, and now might be settling into a role as a depth outfielder at age 30. His glove and speed will continue to get get him looks for teams in need of outfield depth, and some extra help on the grass could help a Dodgers team that has parted ways with Cody Bellinger. Trayce Thompson projects as the new regular center fielder, but with Thompson’s own inconsistent track record before coming to Los Angeles, it makes sense that the Dodgers want some extra help in the minors. It’s possible Zimmer could essentially fill the depth role Kevin Pillar was slated for in 2022, before Pillar underwent season-ending shoulder surgery.
Dodgers Sign J.D. Martinez
The Dodgers have agreed to a one-year contract with J.D. Martinez, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports (Twitter link), pending a physical. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that Martinez will receive $10MM. Martinez is represented by the Boras Corporation.
There hasn’t been much public buzz about Martinez’s trip through free agency, as just earlier today, another Heyman report about the Red Sox possibly having interest in re-signing the veteran slugger marked the first team linked to Martinez since he hit the open market. While Martinez didn’t have many known suitors, the Dodgers were operating quietly, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that L.A. “targeted Martinez early in free agency.” According to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya, the Dodgers also had interest in Martinez prior to last summer’s trade deadline.
Martinez will now end up in Los Angeles after all, and be reunited with a few familiar faces. Former Red Sox teammate Mookie Betts is now a fixture at Dodger Stadium, of course, and Martinez has a long history with Dodgers hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc. It was Martinez’s work with Van Scoyoc in the 2013-14 offseason that helped get his career on track, and turned Martinez into one of baseball’s better hitters of the last decade.
Since those first fateful sessions with Van Scoyoc and Craig Wallenbrock, Martinez has hit .295/.362/.547 with 258 homers over 4916 plate appearances with the Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox. That production led to five All-Star appearances, three Silver Slugger Awards, a key role on Boston’s 2018 World Series championship team, and one big free agent payday in the form of Martinez’s five-year, $110MM contract with the Red Sox in the 2017-18 offseason.
The 2020 season was something of an outlier for Martinez, as he struggled badly in the shortened season and was open with how the COVID-19 dugout protocols interrupted his usual routine. With that year perhaps simply a writeoff due to unusual circumstances, 2022 marked the first sign of decline in Martinez’s production, even if his 119 wRC+ over 596 PA was still solidly above the league average. Martinez still hit .274/.341/.448, but his homer total (16), Isolated Power figure (.174) and slugging percentage were all his lowest in a regulation-sized season since 2013. In addition, Martinez’s hard-hit percentage dropped off sharply from his career norms, even if his 41.7% total was still in the 60th percentile of all batters.
On paper, a move from Fenway Park to Dodger Stadium isn’t ideal for a player looking to regain his power stroke. However, the change of scenery and a reunion with Van Scoyoc makes Martinez into a very interesting bounce-back candidate for 2023. Even if he “only” has another season in the neighborhood of 119 wRC+, the Dodgers will happily take that kind of offensive upgrade within a lineup that has already lost Trea Turner and Cody Bellinger to free agency.
2022 marked the first season that Martinez played exclusively as a designated hitter, and that will surely be his primary role in Los Angeles even if he does pick up the glove for an occasional appearance as a corner outfielder. Martinez doesn’t bring the defensive versatility that the Dodgers usually prefer, but the club has enough other versatile players that the overall roster flexibility won’t be much hurt by Martinez getting the bulk of DH at-bats. Max Muncy will now mostly toggle between second and third base, with Chris Taylor also capable of playing either position and prospect Miguel Vargas in line for more playing time at third base. Gavin Lux, meanwhile, is slated to move from second base to replace Turner as the everyday shortstop.
The addition of Martinez creates an obvious question about whether or not free agent Justin Turner has played his last game in Dodger blue. Heyman tweets that the Dodgers still have interest in Turner, who has also drawn interest from such teams as the Marlins and Diamondbacks this winter. If Turner was re-signed, L.A. could slot Turner in at third base, moving Muncy to second base and keeping Taylor primarily as an outfielder. Vargas would be the odd man out in this scenario, though the Dodgers may prefer to either bring him along slowly, or rely on more experienced players as the club chases another World Series ring.
Of course, there has also been a sense that the Dodgers are willing to lean more heavily than usual on Vargas and other up-and-comers in 2023, given how the team might be looking to duck under the $233MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold. Martinez’s $10MM salary bumps the Dodgers’ tax number to roughly $210.3MM, as per Roster Resource. It still leaves L.A. with more room to spend, but Trevor Bauer‘s appeal of his two-year suspension looms large, as an arbiter is expected to rule on the appeal at some point before the end of January. If the Dodgers have to end up paying some or all of the two years’ worth of salary wiped out by Bauer’s suspension, it could put them near or over the CBT line yet again.
To this end, Martinez’s contract is relatively inexpensive enough that it isn’t necessarily a hint in either direction about how the Dodgers might feel the arbiter will rule. With that appeal still an X-factor for the remainder of the Dodgers’ winter business, they might’ve felt the investment in Martinez was still worth making, given his appeal and comeback potential.
The one-year length is also somewhat notable, as MLBTR projected Martinez for a two-year, $30MM pact. It could be that Martinez accepted the shorter deal in order to play for a contender and to reunite with Betts and Van Scoyoc, or he and agent Scott Boras could view this as something of a pillow contract. If and when Martinez does rebound from his 2022 season, it would put Martinez in line for a larger multi-year pact next winter, even as he’s entering his age-36 season. The Dodgers have yet to ink a player to a multi-year deal this winter, as Martinez, Noah Syndergaard, Shelby Miller, and the re-signed Clayton Kershaw are only signed through the 2023 campaign.
Mets Sign Kodai Senga
TODAY: The Mets officially announced Senga’s deal.
DECEMBER 10: The Mets have agreed to a five-year, $75MM deal with right-hander Kodai Senga, SNY’s Andy Martino reports (Twitter links). Senga’s contract also has no-trade protection and an opt-out clause following the 2025 season, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter). The deal will become official when Senga passes a physical. Senga is represented by the Wasserman Agency.
The contract figure exactly matches the projection from MLBTR, as Senga ranked 11th on the list of the offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents. There is no further posting fee involved in the Mets’ costs, since Senga became a full free agent after exercising an opt-out clause in his contract with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.
Senga turns 30 in January, and he leaves the Hawks after 11 outstanding seasons. The righty has a 2.59 ERA, 28.22% strikeout rate, and 9.33% walk rate over 1089 innings at Japan’s highest level. Senga’s four-pitch arsenal is highlighted by an excellent splitter and a fastball that routinely hits the upper-90s. Scouting reports indicate that Senga’s control is sometimes inconsistent, but otherwise, many pundits feel his stuff can translate quite well to North American baseball.
It was just over a year ago that Senga signed a new five-year deal with the Hawks, but with the important proviso of the opt-out clause that he was widely expected to use, assuming he amassed the necessary service time needed for full free agency. That was a key step in the process, as the Hawks (unlike several other NPB teams) don’t make their players available for the NPB/MLB posting system. In discussing his plan to move to North American baseball, Senga said last year that “as a ballplayer, it’s essential to live my life always aiming higher,” and it can be argued that he more than achieved his goals in Japanese baseball. The right-hander’s resume includes five Japan Series titles with the Hawks, three NPB All-Star appearances, two placements on the Pacific League’s Best Nine team, and (outside of league play) an Olympic gold medal with Japan’s baseball team in 2021.
Between Senga’s potential and the overall demand for pitching this offseason, it isn’t surprising that multiple teams were monitoring his market. The Red Sox, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, and Padres were the other clubs known to have interest, and agent Joel Wolfe implied that as many as a dozen MLB teams had checked in on his client. Multiple five- and six-year offers were on the table for Senga, and while he elected for a five-year option from the Mets, the opt-out allows Senga the possibility of re-entering the market and possibly landing extra years and more money as he enters his age-33 season.
Heading into the offseason, the Mets faced the challenge of a large free agent class that included a star closer (Edwin Diaz) and most of the bullpen altogether, their starting center fielder (Brandon Nimmo), and the majority of their starting rotation in the form of Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, and Chris Bassitt. However, with the Winter Meetings only just passed, New York has already addressed most of those holes by re-signing Diaz and Nimmo, and replacing that trio of starters with Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, and now Senga. If that wasn’t enough, the Mets further bolstered the relief corps by signing David Robertson and acquiring Brooks Raley in a trade from the Rays.
There wasn’t any doubt that owner Steve Cohen was prepared to keep spending in order to keep his 101-game winning team in line to be World Series contenders. However, the spending spree has just continued to reach record levels, as Roster Resource projects the Mets for a 2023 payroll of roughly $334.68MM, and a luxury tax number of just over $349.5MM.
This not only dwarfs the $233MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, it even soars past the fourth and highest ($293MM) tier of the CBT. The fourth tier was instituted in the last collective bargaining agreement as a further penalty for excessive spending, and was unofficially nicknamed the “Steve Cohen Tax” given how the owner made no secret of his intentions to heavily increase payroll. Since this is the Mets’ second consecutive year of tax overage, they’ll face a two-time repeater penalty, as well as a 90 percent overage tax on any dollar spent beyond the $233MM mark. This works out to around $104.85MM in tax penalty — according to Fangraphs, 11 teams currently aren’t slated to spend more than $104.85MM on their entire 2023 payrolls.
With the Mets already in uncharted financial territory, even more big moves could possibly be in store for Cohen and GM Billy Eppler. Since the luxury tax doesn’t appear to be any more than a speed bump to the Amazins’ plans, the club might continue to add high-priced talent, and not even bother with trying to get under the $293MM threshold for any kind of mild lessening of its CBT bill.
On paper, the bullpen looks like it could use some more reinforcement, and catcher also looks like a weaker position except top prospect Francisco Alvarez is expected to get more big league playing time in 2023. The rotation now looks completely set with Max Scherzer, Verlander, Senga, Quintana, and Carlos Carrasco making up the starting five. Speculatively, the Mets might even feel comfortable enough in their depth to shop one of their backup starters (i.e. David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Elieser Hernandez) in trade talks with a pitching-needy team. Or, given the older ages and some of the injury uncertainty surrounding the Mets’ starters, New York might also simply opt to retain as much pitching depth as possible.
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