Rangers Designate A.J. Alexy For Assignment
The Rangers announced their signing of left-hander Andrew Heaney, making it official. To make room on their 40-man roster, they designated right-hander A.J. Alexy for assignment. Additionally, the club announced that they have re-signed catcher David Garcia, left-hander Lucas Jacobsen and right-hander Nick Snyder to minor league deals.
Alexy, 25 in April, was a Dodgers draftee who came to the Rangers via the Yu Darvish trade in 2017. He subsequently moved his way up the minor league ranks, but missed much of 2019 due to injury and didn’t pitch at all in 2020 due to the pandemic wiping out the minors that year. Regardless, the Rangers liked him enough to add him to their 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 draft in late 2020.
He got back on track with a nice season in 2021, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A. Over 65 innings on the farm in 10 starts and six relief appearances, he had a 1.66 ERA, 29.8% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate. That was enough to get him a promotion to the big leagues late in the year. In 2022, Alexy made four MLB appearances but was torched for an ERA of 11.57. He tossed 96 innings in Triple-A but posted a 5.91 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate and 12.8% walk rate.
The Rangers have been aggressively upgrading their pitching staff this offseason, re-signing Martin Perez and trading for Jake Odorizzi before signing Jacob deGrom and Heaney. All those additions have pushed their other options down the depth chart and it seems that Alexy has been nudged out of their plans. It’s possible that he could garner interest from other clubs, as he’s still quite young and has shown flashes of quality in the past. He also still has an option remaining so he wouldn’t even require a spot on an active roster. The Rangers will have one week to work out a trade, place him on waivers or release him.
As for the three minor league signees, Garcia was selected to the club’s 40-man roster at the same time as Alexy but has yet to play at even the Triple-A level. Jacobsen has yet to crack a 40-man roster. Snyder has very brief MLB experience, tossing 4 2/3 innings over the past couple of seasons. He tossed 38 Triple-A innings in 2022 with a 4.97 ERA with a 30.9% strikeout rate but a 10.9% walk rate.
Padres Sign Xander Bogaerts To 11-Year Deal
December 9: The Padres have officially announced the deal. Chris Cotillo of MassLive provides the full contract breakdown. Bogaerts will make a $5MM signing bonus followed by 11 straight seasons with a $25MM salary.
December 8: The Padres closed out the Winter Meetings with a stunner, reportedly agreeing to an 11-year, $280MM contract with Xander Bogaerts. The deal does not contain any options or opt-out provisions, although it does include a full no-trade clause. Bogaerts is represented by the Boras Corporation.
Bogaerts had spent his whole career in Boston, originally joining the organization as an amateur signee from Aruba back in 2009. He quickly developed into one of the sport’s top prospects and was in the majors by August 2013, a few months before his 21st birthday. Bogaerts claimed two Silver Slugger awards within his first four MLB seasons, but his .283/.339/.409 career slash line through 2017 was roughly league average. He took a major step forward in 2018, reaching another level in his age-25 campaign.
He hit .288/.360/.522 with 23 home runs over 136 games that season, helping lead Boston to 108 wins and a World Series title. Bogaerts sustained that new level of excellence, as he’s been a well above-average offensive performer in each of the four years since then. Going back to the start of the 2018 campaign, the righty-hitting infielder owns a .300/.373/.507 line that checks in 34 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+.
On the heels of that breakout season, the Red Sox inked Bogaerts to a long-term deal. Boston guaranteed him $120MM between 2020-25, allowing him to opt out with half that money remaining after 2022. Bogaerts played well enough to earn MVP votes in each of the four seasons since signing that extension, making it a no-brainer he’d take his opt-out opportunity unless he and the Red Sox could preemptively agree upon a new deal.
Extension talks this spring didn’t come close, as Boston reportedly offered to tack on one additional season at $30MM. Turning that down was an easy call for Bogaerts’ camp, and he solidified his opt-out decision with another excellent year. Through 631 plate appearances, he hit .307/.377/.456. Bogaerts’ 15 home runs marked his lowest full-season total since 2017, but he finished tenth in the majors (minimum 500 plate appearances) in on-base percentage.
A career-best .362 batting average on balls in play propped up those rate stats, and it’s unlikely he’ll manage to sustain quite so lofty a mark in future seasons. He owns a career .336 BABIP, though, so there’s plenty of room to remain a strong hitter even if his batting average comes down slightly. He’s walked at an average or better clip in each of the past five years, and he’s kept his strikeout rate remarkably consistent around 18% six seasons running.
Bogaerts makes contact, draws walks and typically threatens or tops 20 homers per season. He’s one of the more well-rounded offensive players in the game, and he’ll step right into an already loaded San Diego lineup. Bogaerts joins Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the middle of a lineup that should be incredibly difficult for opposing pitchers to navigate. That quintet has 11 combined Silver Slugger awards, and they’ll bring an incredible collection of weapons from both sides of the dish.
Where to pencil everyone in on the diamond is a decision the front office and manager Bob Melvin will work out over the coming months. San Diego’s middle infield was already strong. Tatis, two years removed from inking a $341MM extension to serve as the franchise shortstop, will return from his performance-enhancing drug suspension within the first month of next season. Ha-Seong Kim is a Gold Glove caliber shortstop who had a solid .251/.325/.383 line in his second big league campaign. Jake Cronenworth is an above-average defender at second base and owns a .257/.339/.443 mark through his first three seasons.
At least for the moment, Bogaerts seems likely to step in at shortstop. Scott Boras categorically rejected the possibility of Bogaerts moving off the position earlier this offseason. Perhaps the strength of the Padres’ offer changed that thinking, but it’s also possible the Friars rearrange their infield to accommodate his wishes. San Diego had already been considering the idea of moving Tatis to the outfield after his lost season in deference to Kim. Pushing Tatis into left or center field now seems especially likely. Bogaerts could step in at shortstop, with Kim moving to second base and Cronenworth taking over an uncertain first base position.
Bogaerts’ glove has been the subject of immense attention throughout the free agent process. The 6’2″, 218-pounder has a larger build than many shortstops, and he’s drawn some criticism for lacking prototypical range. Public defensive metrics roundly panned his glove throughout his career, with Defensive Runs Saved pegging him below par every year from 2014-21. Concerns about his long-term defensive outlook seemingly played into Boston’s low extension offer this past spring, but Bogaerts posted the strongest defensive metrics of his career in 2022.
In 1249 2/3 innings this past season, he rated as five runs above average by DRS and four runs better than par, according to Statcast. Concerns about his lateral quickness into his mid-30’s figure to persist, but his strong 2022 campaign at least reduced any urgency to move him off shortstop immediately.
The Padres clearly aren’t much concerned about Bogaerts’ long-term defensive fit. Owner Peter Seidler and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller have been hellbent on adding another star regardless of position. They reportedly made offers well north of $300MM for both Trea Turner and Aaron Judge, but both players declined and signed elsewhere. Those failed pursuits of Turner and Judge made the Padres a fascinating wild card this offseason, and while reports initially suggested they were unlikely to dip back into the shortstop market, they pivoted and made a run at Bogaerts.
An 11-year term will take him through his age-40 campaign. That matches the term Turner received from Philadelphia, but Bogaerts was generally expected to command a lesser deal in light of his long-term defensive concerns. Turner’s $300MM guarantee does beat the one received by Bogaerts, but the $20MM gap was closer than most had envisioned.
The deal shatters MLBTR’s pre-offseason prediction of $189MM over seven seasons. It’s the second-largest free agent deal in franchise history — trailing only Machado’s ten-year, $300MM pact. The $280MM guarantee is the seventh-largest for a free agent in MLB history, with Judge and Turner topping it thus far among this offseason’s free agents.
The cost for the Padres goes well beyond the terms of the offer itself. The specific financial breakdown hasn’t yet been reported, but the contract comes with a $25.45MM average annual value. That’s the relevant consideration for luxury tax purposes, and it sends the Padres well into tax territory. Roster Resource projects the Friars for a tax number around $254MM at present. That’s $21MM north of the $233MM base threshold, and $1MM above the second tier of penalization.
San Diego has paid the luxury tax in each of the last two seasons, and it looks all but certain they’ll do so again. They’re taxed at a 50% rate for every dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, coming out to $10MM in fees. They’ll be charged 62% on any overages between $253MM and $273MM, and they’d face heightened penalties thereafter. As things currently stand, the Bogaerts deal sets them up for a tax bill around $10.6MM. Further additions or subtractions will alter that number, but it’s virtually certain they’ll be into competitive balance tax territory yet again.
It’s worth noting that at $27.27MM and $25.45MM respectively, both Turner and Bogaerts accepted lower average annual values than expected while also reaching an 11-year term that had only happened once before in free agency when Bryce Harper signed for 13 years. With infielders Corey Seager, Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, and Anthony Rendon receiving AAVs ranging from $32.5-35MM dating back to 2019, it may be surprising that Turner and Bogaerts fell well below that range. It’s all about that CBT – the Phillies and Padres reduce their luxury tax hits and tax bills for taking on the players’ late-30s seasons, which project to have little value.
Bogaerts rejected a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, meaning the Padres will also have to surrender draft choices to add him. As a team that paid the luxury tax in 2022, they’re subject to the highest penalties. San Diego will be stripped of its second and fifth-highest selections in next year’s amateur draft, and they’ll forfeit $1MM in international signing bonus space.
While the Padres load up for another run at the powerhouse Dodgers in the NL West, the Red Sox will have to move on from a homegrown star who’s played a key role with the franchise for nearly a decade. It’s an abrupt about-face for the organization. While it had long looked as if Bogaerts would depart given the lack of progress on an extension in Spring Training, reports Wednesday morning suggested their talks with his camp were gaining momentum.
It seemed as if he might remain in Boston for the entirety of his prime, but the Padres’ offer wound up handily surpassing Boston’s. Pete Abraham and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe report the Red Sox had offered a six-year term worth around $160MM. That was more in line with general pre-offseason expectations and contained a slightly higher annual salary than the deal Boagerts received, but San Diego’s willingness to tack on an extra half-decade in guaranteed money made the gap enormous. Somehow, the $137.375MM the Red Sox spent on Masataka Yoshida and Kenley Jansen earlier Wednesday almost seems quaint in comparison to the Bogaerts contract.
The Red Sox will receive compensation for Bogaerts’ departure, but it’s at the lowest tier since Boston also paid the competitive balance tax in 2022. They’ll receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft. That’s of small consolation, and the far greater concern is how the club will move forward. Boston signed Trevor Story to a $140MM guarantee last offseason, giving themselves some cover at shortstop. Should they prefer to keep Story at second base, they could check in with the two remaining top free agent shortstops, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson. Regardless, Boston is certainly not done after chief baseball office Chaim Bloom said Monday he hopes to add “seven, eight, nine” players to the team this offseason. Starting pitcher and the catcher position are two items remaining on the shopping list even if shortstop is handled in-house.
Correa and Swanson are sitting pretty with Turner and Bogaerts having exceeded expectations in terms of total dollars. While the Boras Corporation representing both Bogaerts and Correa could be viewed as a conflict of interest, the agency managed to get Bogaerts signed with a team that hadn’t been expected to sign a shortstop at the outset of the offseason.
It’s a deal of massive proportions, one that could drastically shake up both leagues. After a couple attempts came up empty, the Padres landed their desired superstar. The Red Sox’s optimism of a few hours ago was dashed by a determined organization that now spends like a big-market behemoth. Bogaerts lands one of the largest contracts in MLB history, setting the stage for a fascinating bidding war for the two star shortstops who remain unsigned.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report Bogaerts and the Padres had agreed to an 11-year, $280MM contract. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported the deal did not come with any opt-out provisions and included a full no-trade clause.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Phillies Sign Matt Strahm
The Phillies’ whirlwind week continued Friday, as the team formally announced a two-year deal with free-agent lefty Matt Strahm. The ACES client will reportedly be guaranteed $15MM on the contract, which was the third free-agent agreement of the week for a Phillies club that also closed deals with shortstop Trea Turner (11 years, $300MM) and right-hander Taijuan Walker (four years, $72MM)
Strahm, 31, pitched the last year with the Red Sox on a one-year, $3MM deal. He tossed 44 2/3 innings of 3.83 ERA ball, striking out batters at a 26.9% clip against an 8.8% walk rate. Strahm had fairly even splits, limiting left-handed hitters to a .229/.333/.354 line while right-handers hit .221/.302/.353. It represented a solid platform year for Strahm, who pitched just 6 2/3 innings for the Padres a year prior.
Initially drafted in the 21st round of the 2012 draft by the Royals, Strahm found his way to the majors in 2016. That year he pitched effectively out of their bullpen, working to a 1.23 ERA across 22 innings while striking out a well above average 34.1% of batters. The strikeouts nosedived in 2017 to 24% and the results followed, as Strahm struggled to a 5.45 ERA in 34 2/3 innings that year before ultimately winding up on the IL for the rest of the season with a knee injury.
While injured, the Royals traded him with Esteury Ruiz and Travis Wood to the Padres at the 2017 deadline in a deal for Trevor Cahill, Ryan Buchter and Brandon Maurer. He wouldn’t pitch for them until 2018, when he threw 61 1/3 innings of 2.05 ERA ball. Strahm saw his strikeout rate tick back up while posting the best walk rate (8.6%) of his career at that point.
The Padres gave him a look as a starter in 2019, and he wound up making 16 starts for the team that year. Those didn’t go so well, as Strahm pitched to a 5.29 ERA. They returned him to the bullpen and Strahm quickly found his groove again, tossing 33 innings of 3.27 ERA relief work in the second half. He continued to provide value for the Padres out of the pen in the shortened 2020 season, working to a 2.61 ERA in 20 2/3 innings.
Injuries plagued his 2021 campaign, as Strahm first dealt with a right patellar tendon repair. He returned in August that year, but a few weeks found himself shut down for the rest of the season with knee inflammation. He went to free agency looking for opportunities to rebuild his value, and found that in the form of a one-year, $3MM deal with the Red Sox. The platform year in Boston went well enough that Strahm now finds himself with a multi-year contract with an AAV of $7.5MM.
Philadelphia’s bullpen was need of a bit of a rebuild after the departures of Corey Knebel, David Robertson and Brad Hand, and there’s every chance Strahm isn’t the only addition they make there. He’ll slot in with the likes of Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado, Andrew Bellatti and Connor Brogdon in the Phillies bullpen as things stand. It’s also at least possible that he’ll get a look as a starter, as he’s previously voiced a desire to get another rotation opportunity — and the Phillies’ fifth starter spot is at least somewhat up for grabs. Bailey Falter is the in-house favorite, though prospects Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry aren’t far from MLB readiness.
The addition of Strahm brings the Phillies’ payroll up to about $230MM in terms of actual 2023 salaries, but their luxury-tax ledger (which is based on AAV and also includes player benefits and the team’s payment into the leaguewide pre-arbitration bonus pool) is just shy of $242MM, per Roster Resource. That’s about $8MM over this year’s $233MM threshold, and as a team in line to pay the tax for a second straight season, they’ll pay a 30% tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed that threshold. As it stands, they’re only in line for about $2.7MM worth of penalties, but further roster machinations will alter that outlook.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the two sides were close to a deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported they were in agreement on a two-year, $15MM contract.
KBO’s NC Dinos Sign Jason Martin
December 8: The club has announced the signing, as relayed by Kurtz. Martin will make a $720K salary and $180K signing bonus, with $100K in incentives also available.
December 4: The NC Dinos are working on completing a deal with outfielder Jason Martin, according to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO. This will be Martin’s first stint overseas after 10 seasons in affiliated North American baseball.
Martin, a former eight-round draft pick for the Astros, was traded to the Pirates as part of the 2018 Gerrit Cole trade that included Joe Musgrove, Michael Feliz, and Colin Moran. He made his major league debut during the 2019 season, getting into 20 games (40 plate appearances) with a weak .250/.325/.306 line, and would spend much of the season in Triple-A Indianapolis, where he hit a much more respectable .260/.312/.419 with 25 doubles.
Martin was hitless in 11 plate appearances during 2020, before he was outrighted off Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster at the end of the season. He latched on with Texas on a minor league deal, eventually joining the major league team. Once again, despite promising results in Triple-A (.248/.388/.543), Martin struggled against major league pitching, hitting .208/.248/.354 in 154 plate appearances. Martin elected free agency after the 2021 season, joining the Dodgers on a minor league contract, but did not see time with the major league club during the 2022 season. He finished the 2022 season slashing a strong .285/.374/.564 with 32 homers and 25 doubles in 129 games.
Martin, who turned 27 in September, will head abroad looking to shake the Quad-A moniker that he has cultivated over the past few seasons. He will likely earn a raise compared to his minor league salary and can explore a return to MLB if his time in South Korea proves fruitful.
Red Sox To Sign Chris Martin To Two-Year Deal
December 8: Robert Murray of FanSided provides the specific contract breakdown. Martin will make $6MM in 2023 and $7.5MM in 2024, in addition to a $4MM signing bonus.
December 2: The Red Sox and reliever Chris Martin are in agreement on a two-year deal, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. The deal is pending a physical and will be worth $17.5MM.
Martin, 37 in June, has had one of the more unique baseball trajectories. As detailed in this 2019 piece from Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Martin had shoulder surgery in 2006 that he thought was the end of his career. Years later, he was working for Lowe’s and UPS and discovered during a game of catch with friends that his shoulder didn’t bother him anymore.
He got back onto the mound and worked his way to the big leagues, pitching a couple of seasons in 2014 and 2015 before heading to Japan for 2016 and 2017. He returned to the majors for 2018 and has spent the past five seasons as an effective middle reliever with perhaps the best control in the league. Martin has walked just 2.8% of batters faced in that time, the best such rate of any pitcher with at least 200 innings pitched.
This year was no exception. He began the year by signing a one-year deal with the Cubs for $2.5MM plus incentives. Through 31 1/3 innings in Chicago, his ERA was an unimpressive 4.31 but with much stronger peripherals. His 30.1% strikeout rate, 3% walk rate and 52.3% ground ball rate were all much better than league average. However, his ERA was being inflated by a .393 batting average on balls in play and by 20.8% of his fly balls allowed leaving the yard.
The Dodgers believed some regression was due and sent Zach McKinstry to the Cubs in order to install Martin in their bullpen down the stretch. The results were utterly dominant, as Martin pitched to a 1.46 ERA, striking out 37% of batters faced while walking just 1.1%. He also added another two innings of postseason work without issuing a walk.
Based on that strong season, MLBTR predicted he could secure a two-year, $14MM deal, but Martin has nudged past that by a few million. The relief market has been quite strong so far this winter, with Martin and Rafael Montero both beating their predictions by healthy margins.
The bullpen was a weak spot for Boston in 2022, as their relievers posted a collective ERA of 4.59, 26th in the majors. They also lost one of their effective members to free agency in Matt Strahm. They’ve since made moves to try and bolster the relief corps by singing Joely Rodriguez and now Martin. Assuming the money is evenly distributed in two instalments of $8.75MM, Roster Resource has their 2023 payroll currently at $142MM with a competitive balance tax calculation of $161MM.
Reds Sign Silvino Bracho To Minor League Deal
The Reds announced this evening they’ve inked reliever Silvino Bracho to a minor league contract with an invitation to big league Spring Training. The 30-year-old was available after being non-tendered by the Braves.
Bracho has appeared in parts of six big league campaigns. He debuted back in 2015, when he allowed only two runs with a 17:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 2/3 innings for the Diamondbacks. Bracho couldn’t sustain that early success over a full season, with home run issues leading to an ERA north of 5.00 in each of the next two years. He rebounded to post a 3.19 ERA with a solid 26.4% strikeout rate across 31 innings in 2018, but his career was then thrown off track by injury. He required Tommy John surgery that limited him to one combined appearance between 2019-20, leading the Snakes to cut him loose.
The Venezuela native didn’t appear in the majors in 2021, but he earned his way back briefly this year. Signed to a minor league deal with the Red Sox over the offseason, he tossed 31 1/3 frames of 3.16 ERA ball in Triple-A. Boston promoted him to the majors but designated him for assignment without getting him into a game. He was dealt to the Braves for cash and spent most of the season with their top affiliate in Gwinnett, but he made three MLB appearances with Atlanta. Bracho allowed three runs in 4 1/3 innings in what marked his most extensive major league action since 2018.
Despite the lack of recent big league work, Bracho makes for a decent depth signee. He’s coming off an excellent 2.67 ERA across 57 1/3 innings between the Red Sox’s and Braves’ top affiliates. Bracho punched out an excellent 30.4% of batters faced in Triple-A with only a 4.3% walk percentage.
Cincinnati has a fair bit of opportunity available in the middle innings. The Reds finished 28th in the majors with a 4.72 bullpen ERA in 2022. Alexis Díaz, Lucas Sims, Tejay Antone and Buck Farmer look to have jobs secured. The middle relief corps is less settled, with out-of-options Ian Gibaut competing with pitchers like Tony Santillan, Fernando Cruz and Joel Kuhnel for roles.
Marlins, Austin Allen Agree To Minor League Deal
The Marlins have agreed to a minor league contract with catcher Austin Allen, as first indicated on the team’s transactions log at MLB.com. The former Padres and Athletics backstop will presumably vie for a roster spot in Spring Training with the Fish.
Allen, 29 next month, was a fourth-round pick of the Padres in 2015 who went from San Diego to Oakland as part of 2019’s Jurickson Profar trade. Baseball America ranked him 16th among San Diego farmhands at the time of the swap and 11th among A’s prospects a year later, but despite consistently impressing in Triple-A (.314/.365/.583 in 820 plate appearances), Allen has never gotten much of a look in the big leagues. Suspect glovework appears to be the primary reason, as he’s long been touted as a bat-first player with plenty of concerns regarding his ability to stay behind the plate. Allen has spent increased time at first base and designated hitter in recent seasons but remained productive in the upper minors.
Chances at the MLB level were sparse for Allen, particularly in Oakland, where standout Sean Murphy understandably logged the lion’s share of playing time and more defensive-minded players have typically served as his backup. Allen never received more than 35 plate appearances in a season with Oakland and saw only a career-high 71 during his debut campaign with San Diego. In 127 MLB plate appearances, he’s a .195/.252/.288 hitter.
There’s little doubting Allen’s power, however. He’s had four seasons in the minors with between 20 and 22 home runs, despite never topping 121 games played in any of those years. And, while he’s fanned at a troubling 37% clip in his small sample of MLB action, his 20.4% mark in a larger sample of Triple-A plate appearances is less concerning.
Allen is out of minor league options, so if he makes the Marlins’ roster at any point, he won’t be able to be sent back to Triple-A without first clearing waivers. He’s likely a depth signing behind Jacob Stallings and Nick Fortes, but Miami is fairly thin at catcher in the upper minors, so Allen could be the top option in the event of an injury. Of course, subsequent offseason additions, be they Major League acquisitions or further non-roster pickups, could see Allen pushed down the depth chart a bit.
Dodgers Sign Jason Heyward To Minor League Deal
The Dodgers announced Thursday that they’ve signed free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training.
The Cubs released Heyward earlier this offseason. He’d been slated to head into the 2023 campaign in the final season of his eight-year, $184MM deal signed prior to the 2016 campaign. Chicago remains on the hook for the bulk of Heyward’s $22MM salary in 2023, and the Dodgers will only owe him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on their Major League roster or injured list. That sum would be subtracted from the $22MM owed by the Cubs.
Heyward, still just 33, spent seven seasons with the Cubs but struggled to live up to the expectations of that contract. After hitting .293/.359/.439 with all-world defense in his lone season as a Cardinal prior to reaching the open market, Heyward hit just .230/.306/.325 in the first season of his eight-year deal. The Cubs won the World Series that year, with the final victory famously preceded by a spirited clubhouse speech from Heyward during a rain delay. That makes for a good anecdote but ultimately does little to overshadow a generally underwhelming tenure with the Cubs.
Heyward posted above-average offensive numbers with the Cubs only in the 2019 season and in the shortened 2020 campaign, when he combined for a .255/.355/.435 output in 770 plate appearances. That solid run was bookended by a total of five sub-par seasons at the plate, though, and Heyward’s final batting line as a member of the Cubs clocked in at just .245/.323/.377. He provided plus defense, value on the bases and was clearly an important figure in the clubhouse, but there’s no getting around the fact that the contract didn’t pan out anywhere close to how either party hoped. By measure of wins above replacement, Heyward gave the Cardinals nearly as much value in 2015 (5.6 fWAR, 6.8 bWAR) as he gave the Cubs over a seven-year period from 2016-22 (8.2 fWAR, 8.9 bWAR).
The Dodgers will hope that a change of scenery, some different coaching and some input from a different data/analytics team might be able to help Heyward tap into some semblance of his old self. Righting this ship will be a tall order, as Heyward’s once-elite defensive grades have dwindled down to nearly average. Heyward still possesses a strong arm, but he was never a burner in the first place and Statcast ranked his 2022 sprint speed in the 44th percentile of big leaguers.
Heyward won’t be guaranteed anything more than an opportunity with the Dodgers, who’ll be able to cut him loose at any point in camp if they wish to allocate his Cactus League at-bats to younger options. That said, there’s at least some degree of an opportunity for him, at least as things currently stand with the L.A. roster. Having non-tendered Cody Bellinger and lost Trea Turner to the Phillies via free agency, the Dodgers currently have some unsettled spots in the lineup. For now, Chris Taylor seems likely to move from left field to second base, with Gavin Lux sliding to shortstop. That creates some more fluidity in an outfield mix that right now might contain both Trayce Thompson and 25-year-old rookie James Outman.
There will certainly be more moves on the horizon for the Dodgers, whether they pivot and make a play for Dansby Swanson at shortstop — they’re reportedly not pursuing Carlos Correa — or whether they bring in some new talent to deepen the outfield mix. Any subsequent additions could serve to further limit Heyward’s chances, but there’s little harm in bringing him to camp this spring and seeing if they can conjure up yet another successful reclamation project.
Phillies Sign Trea Turner To 11-Year Contract
Dec. 8: The Phillies have formally announced the signing.
Dec. 5: The Phillies and shortstop Trea Turner have agreed on a contract that will see him make $300MM over 11 years with a full no-trade clause. Turner is represented by CAA Sports.
Turner, who turns 30 in June, had a huge breakout campaign in 2016 and has been one of the best all-around players in the game since then. He’s stolen at least 27 bases in each full season in that time, twice getting over 40. His career batting average is over .300. Though his power wasn’t as impressive earlier in his career, he has continued pushing that portion of his game upwards, getting over 20 home runs in each of the past two seasons. Ultimate Zone Rating isn’t enamored of his glovework, though Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both view him as a quality fielder at shortstop for his career.
Turner reached free agency this winter as part of the so-called “big four,” which also consists of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. Based on his ability to help a team in all facets of his game, MLBTR predicted him to get a healthy contract of $268MM over eight years. That was the second highest guarantee predicted for the shortstops, behind the $288MM predicted for Correa. However, Correa is over a year younger than Turner and that prediction was spread over nine years instead of eight, meaning Turner was predicted for the highest average annual value at $33.5MM.
The actual contract that Turner has agreed to will take a much different shape than the prediction. His $300MM guarantee goes a bit beyond the $288MM mark, but with three extra years added on. That means Turner will turn 40 years old in the final season of the contract. This deal has some similarities to that of Bryce Harper, Turner’s former teammate with the Nationals who also signed with the Phillies. Harper set the record for the largest guarantee ever given to a free agent, a record he still holds, by signing for $330MM. However, he got to that guarantee over an extended 13-year stretch, an average annual value of just over $25MM per season that was well below other elite players who often get into the mid-30s. (Since that deal, the AAV record has been set at $43.33MM by Max Scherzer and tied earlier today by Justin Verlander. Among position players, Mike Trout has the record at $36MM.) Turner has followed Harper to Philadelphia and also agreed to a somewhat similar contract that prioritizes guarantee instead of salary, with Turner’s deal working out to just over $27MM per season. Turner will also be reunited with Kevin Long, who is the hitting coach in Philadelphia. Turner recently told Kiley McDaniel of ESPN that Long, who was Washington’s hitting coach from 2018 to 2021, that Long played a key role in his development as a hitter.
For the Phillies, they have been looking for a solution at shortstop for a long time now. They signed Didi Gregorius to take the job in 2020, and he performed well enough in that shortened campaign to return on a two-year deal. Unfortunately, that new contract went south real fast, with Gregorius eventually finishing 2021 with a line of .209/.270/.370 for a wRC+ of 69, indicating he was 31% below league average.
There was some speculation the Phils would pursue a shortstop last winter, as there was also a healthy class of free agents at that time, including Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Báez, Trevor Story and Marcus Semien. The club eventually shied away from that group, going into 2022 with Gregorius in the final year of his contract and prospect Bryson Stott knocking on the door of the majors. Gregorius had another awful season in 2022, getting released in August. Stott struggled for a few months but did eventually find his footing in an encouraging way. At the end of May, he was sitting on a miserable .123/.179/.151 batting line for a wRC+ of -8. Something seemed to click in June, as he hit .257/.318/.401 for a wRC+ of 102 from that point on, bringing his final line up to .234/.295/.358 and a wRC+ of 83.
The Phillies made it to the World Series in 2022, eventually falling to the Astros. They went into this winter motivated to upgrade for another run at the title in 2023 and were heavily connected to the “big four” shortstops. Having turned down on option on Jean Segura, they had an opening at second base and seemed intent on getting one of the big shortstop while kicking Stott over to the other side of the bag. Though they had some degree of interest in all four, it was reported last week that Turner was their top priority.
With this signing, the Phillies have made a splash that will have ripple effects around the rest of the league. The Dodgers, who acquired Turner from the Nats at the deadline in 2021, will now need to consider how to set their middle infield for next year. They are reportedly open to the idea of moving Gavin Lux from second base to short and sitting out the “big four” this winter. Whether that ultimates proves true or not will be revealed in time, but it doesn’t seem like Correa, Bogaerts or Swanson will have trouble finding their next employers. The Padres, Giants, Twins, Braves, Red Sox, Orioles and Mariners have been publicly linked to the shortstops in some way, with other clubs surely in the mix as well. Some of those teams were likely interested in Turner, though they will now have to proceed with one option off the board. Since Turner rejected a qualifying offer, the Dodgers will get an extra draft pick next year, with that pick pushed to after the fourth round on account of the Dodgers having paid the competitive balance tax. The Phils, also a CBT payor, will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks and see their international bonus pool reduced by $1MM.
Though the Phils will have Turner and Stott up the middle, the rest of the infield is somewhat in flux. Alec Bohm and Rhys Hoskins could stay at third and first base, respectively, as they did in 2022. However, with Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and potentially missing the first half of the year, it’s been speculated that Bohm could move over to first, with Hoskins taking more time in the designated hitter slot while Edmundo Sosa takes over at the hot corner. Regardless of how they line it up in the field, Turner seems poised to add a speedy element to a Philadelphia lineup that skewed to the power side. Turner can, to some degree, make up for some of the production lost by not having Harper around for the first part of the year, with Harper then hopefully joining the club for the second half and postseason. Turner hit .298/.343/.466 in 2022 for a wRC+ of 128, hitting 21 home runs and stealing 27 bases along the way.
Financially, the deal will extend the commitments for the club far into the future. Due to both Harper and Turner signing such lengthy deals, the Phils already have two big contracts on the books for the 2031 season, when they are both likely to be less productive than they are now. Turner will still be on the ledger through 2033. However, for the short term, the lower AAV gives the Phils more wiggle room in 2023 when they are looking to capitalize while their competitive window is wide open. Roster Resource estimates their 2023 payroll to be $206MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $218MM. The club paid the CBT in 2022 and seems poised to do so again, as they are now just about $15MM away from the $233MM threshold for 2023. Given that they are still looking to make upgrades to the pitching staff, they will likely end up on the other side of the line for a second straight year. The CBT features escalating penalties for repeat payors, meaning the Phils will pay a 30% tax on all spending over that line, with greater penalties if they go more than $20MM above.
It’s unsurprising that the Phils are being aggressive as they look get back to the World Series again in 2023. However, they will have no shortage of competition. Despite their strong postseason run, the club actually finished third in the division in 2022 behind the Mets and Braves. Those two clubs are still set up to be strong again going forward as Atlanta continues locking up all its young stars to lengthy extensions while the Mets are spending wildly in free agency. Turner’s deal is the second huge payout for the division today, as the Mets already signed Verlander to a two-year, $86.66MM deal to replace Jacob deGrom in their rotation. With many months still to go until Spring Training, the National League East is shaping up to be a fascinating battle again in 2023.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the two sides were in agreement while Kiley McDaniel of ESPN first reported the specifics structure of the deal and the no-trade clause.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
KBO’s Samsung Lions Re-Sign Three Players
The Samsung Lions of the Korea Baseball Organization announced last night they’ve re-signed all three of their foreign-born players (h/t to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net). Right-handers David Buchanan and Albert Suarez and outfielder José Pirela all inked new deals for the 2023 campaign.
All three players have prior MLB experience. Buchanan made 35 starts for the Phillies from 2014-15, posting a 5.01 ERA. He spent three seasons in Japan and has now played three years in South Korea, working to a 3.45 ERA or lower each year. Buchanan provided the Lions 160 frames of 3.04 ERA ball this past season. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted last night the 33-year-old righty was drawing some attention from MLB teams but decided to return to Daegu for a fourth season. He’ll make $1.6MM, according to the team announcement.
Suarez played for the Giants in 2016-17. He posted a 4.51 ERA in 115 2/3 innings for San Francisco. By 2019, he’d made the jump to Asia. Like Buchanan, he first went to Japan. After three seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball, he signed with the Lions in 2022. His first season in the KBO was a resounding success, as he posted a 2.49 ERA over 173 2/3 innings while starting 29 of 30 outings. The Venezuelan-born righty will return for a second season on a $1.3MM salary.
Pirela, who’ll make $1.7MM, is the highest-paid of the trio. He also started in NPB before making the move to South Korea for the 2021 campaign. The right-handed hitter has played two seasons for the Lions, combining for an excellent .314/.384/.528 line in over 1200 plate appearances. That includes a massive .342/.411/.565 showing in 141 games this past season. A Venezuela native, the 33-year-old Pirela played in 302 MLB games between 2014-19. He suited up with the Yankees, Padres and Phillies and hit .257/.308/.392 in the majors.