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MLB teams are working to keep their best pitchers off of the open market with contract extensions, and fewer elite arms are hitting free agency as a result of this emerging trend. In the past month alone, Matt Cain, Derek Holland, Jon Niese and Madison Bumgarner have signed long-term extensions that will postpone their free agency.

So who's going to hit free agency? Fortunately for teams without pitching, some under-30 starters are not signed to long-term deals (minimum 2.5 wins above replacement in 2011 per FanGraphs). The list below includes pitchers who are going year to year through arbitration, and those who are headed for free agency this coming offseason:

Eligible For Free Agency After 2012

• Zack Greinke – 28 years old, 3.9 WAR in '11, 7.057 years of MLB service through '11
• Edwin Jackson — 28 years old, 3.8 WAR in '11, 6.070 years of MLB service through '11
• Cole Hamels – 28 years old, 5.0 WAR in '11, 5.143 years of MLB service through '11 (extension candidate)
• Brandon McCarthy – 28 years old, 4.7 WAR in '11, 5.122 years of MLB service through '11 (extension candidate)
• Anibal Sanchez – 28 years old, 3.8 WAR in '11, 5.099 years of MLB service through '11 (extension candidate)

Eligible For Free Agency After 2013

• Matt Garza – 28 years old, 5.0 WAR in '11, 4.149 years of MLB service through '11 (extension candidate)

Eligible For Free Agency After 2014

• Justin Masterson – 27 years old, 4.9 WAR in '11, 3.108 years of MLB service through '11 (extension candidate)
• Matt Harrison – 26 years old, 4.2 WAR in '11, 3.083 years of MLB service through '11
• Max Scherzer – 27 years old, 2.8 WAR in '11, 3.079 years of MLB service through '11 (extension candidate)

Eligible For Free Agency After 2015

• Rick Porcello – 23 years old, 2.7 WAR in '11, 2.170 years of MLB service through '11
• David Price – 26 years old, 4.7 WAR in '11, 2.164 years of MLB service through '11
• Jordan Zimmermann -– 25 years old, 3.4 WAR in '11, 2.154 years of MLB service through '11 (extension candidate)
• Ian Kennedy – 27 years old, 5.0 WAR in '11, 2.124 years of MLB service through '11 (extension candidate)
• Mat Latos – 24 years old, 3.2 WAR in '11, 2.079 years of MLB service through '11
• Doug Fister – 28 years old, 5.5 WAR in '11, 2.058 years of MLB service through '11
• Philip Humber – 29 years old, 3.5 WAR in '11, 2.000 years of MLB service through '11

Eligible For Free Agency After 2016

• Daniel Hudson — 25 years old, 4.9 WAR in '11, 1.117 years of MLB service through '11 (extension candidate)
• Ivan Nova – 25 years old, 2.7 WAR in '11, 1.035 years of MLB service through '11
• Brandon Beachy – 25 years old, 2.8 WAR in '11, 1.014 years of MLB service through '11
• Michael Pineda – 23 years old, 3.4 WAR in '11, 1.000 years of MLB service through '11

Many of the pitchers above will eventually sign extensions that delay their arrival on the open market. For now, however, it remains possible that they'll test free agency.

Super two players go to arbitration four times instead of three, so they make more money than their peers. This incentivizes teams to keep top young players in the minors for extra seasoning: clubs save millions in future seasons if their players don't qualify as super twos.

It's probably not a coincidence that Carlos Santana, Giancarlo Stanton and Stephen Strasburg were all called up within four days of one another in June of 2010. Those players now project to miss out on super two status this offseason because of the patience their teams showed two years ago.

This past offseason former top prospects Matt Wieters and Andrew McCutchen were among the players who narrowly missed out on super two status. Three years ago, when they were initially called up, it was apparent that their teams were likely working to avoid super two status. This isn’t to say teams always time call-ups based on service time — that's not at all true — but there’s no denying it’s a contributing factor with top prospects. 

Sometimes teams build escalators into extensions for pre-arbitration eligible players who may qualify as super twos (yesterday we encountered one such deal). Here’s a look at how teams have valued super two status on recent contract:

• Evan Longoria, Rays – $1.5MM
• Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers – $2MM
• Madison Bumgarner, Giants – $5MM
• Ryan Braun, Brewers – $6MM

The value of super two status depends on many factors including the player’s performance and the timing of the deal. But if your favorite team keeps its top prospect in the minors until June, know that arbitration eligibility may well be a factor. Similarly, it’s easy to see why the MLBPA insisted on an increase in super two players in the most recent round of collective bargaining.

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As players approach free agency, they generally gain leverage in contract negotiations with their teams. That’s how Joey Votto and Matt Kemp, two superstars within striking distance of free agency, obtained two of the offseason's most lucrative contracts.

But when players sign extensions early on in their careers, the deals take a different shape. Low-revenue Major League teams can’t afford $200MM mistakes, so they often choose to commit tens of millions to relatively unproven players in exchange for extended team control at a manageable rate.  These teams are investing less money in a commodity that’s less certain to pay off.

This offseason has already featured 11 extensions for pre-arbitration eligible players, as MLBTR’s Extension Tracker shows. The group – Andrew McCutchen, Derek Holland, Jon Niese, Alcides Escobar, Cameron Maybin, Sergio Santos, Jonathan Lucroy, Carlos Santana, Cory Luebke, Salvador Perez and Matt Moore — includes some players who have already become stars. Here are some more observations about the deals:

• Club options are a must. Teams have obtained at least one option on each extension. 
• These contracts are the domain of small market teams. The Padres (30th in Opening Day payroll), Royals (27th in payroll), Pirates (26th in payroll), Rays (25th in payroll) and Indians (21st in payroll) are responsible for seven of these 11 extensions.
• WMG was the lone agency to broker more than one of these deals (Santana, Escobar).
• Teams seem to prefer up the middle position players. Three catchers, two center fielders and a shortstop populate the list of pre-arbitration position players who signed this offseason. 
• Starting pitchers can also cash in early; they obtained four of the 11 contracts.
• Santos, a late bloomer who became a pitcher years into his professional career, is one of two players on this list who's over 25. Santana, who celebrated his 26th birthday on Sunday, is the other.

These deals seem to be on the rise. We saw five extensions for pre-arbitration eligible players last offseason and seven the previous year. Perhaps teams are drawing inspiration from the Rays, who have retained star-caliber players affordably with some successful early-career extensions.

Baseball new collective bargaining agreement went to rather extreme lengths to restrict amateur spending, so the days of big money contracts for drafted players appear to be a thing of the past. Clubs are now given a "draft pool" based on their winning percentage, and they face stiff penalties if they spend more than allotted.

Teams were aware that these restrictions could be put in place, so they spared no expense on last year's draft, likely their final chance to spend freely. The 30 clubs combined to spend $236MM on the draft last year, the most in baseball history. Let's take a second to update our list of the largest contracts in draft history…

Major League Contracts

1. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (2009, 1st round/1st pick): Four years, $15.1MM. His $7.5MM signing bonus is no longer the draft record, however.
2. Mark Prior, Cubs (2001, 1/2): Five years, $10.5MM. Prior exercised an opt-out clause near the end of the deal and instead filed for salary arbitration. He earned an extra $1.575MM by doing so.
3. Bryce Harper, Nationals (2010, 1/1): Five years, $9.9MM. Includes a $6.25MM signing bonus that will be paid out in five installments.
4. Mark Teixeira, Rangers (2001, 1/5): Four years, $9.5MM. His $4.5MM signing bonus was a draft record for six years.
5. Danny Hultzen, Mariners (2011, 1/2): Five years, $8.5MM. The deal includes a $6.35MM signing bonus and escalators that could push the total value to $10.6MM.
6. David Price, Rays (2007, 1/1): Six years, $8.5MM. Like Prior, Price opted out of the final year of his contract and filed for arbitration, earning an extra $2.85MM.
7. Pat Burrell, Phillies (1998, 1/1): Five years, $8MM. The first of these mega-contracts for draftees.
8. Dustin Ackley, Mariners (2009, 1/2): Five years, $7.5MM. There's another $2.5MM in incentives tied to how quickly he reached the majors.
9. Rick Porcello, Tigers (2007, 1/27): Four years, $7.285MM. Porcello also opted out of his contract and filed for arbitration, earning an extra $1.756MM in the process.
10. Anthony Rendon, Nationals (2011, 1/6): Four years, $7.2MM. All but $1.2MM of the guarantee comes in the form of a signing bonus.

The Hultzen and Rendon deals pushed J.D. Drew and Josh Beckett (both four years, $7MM) out of the top ten. Porcello's contract was designed to match but not exceed Beckett's by pro-rating his 2007 salary.

Big league contracts can no longer be handed out to drafted players according to the new CBA, so this list will not change until the current agreement expires at the earliest.

Minor League Contracts

1. Gerrit Cole, Pirates (2011, 1/1): $8MM
2. Bubba Starling, Royals (2011, 1/5): $7.5MM
3. Jameson Taillon, Pirates (2010, 1/2): $6.5MM
4. Donavan Tate, Padres (2009, 1/3): $6.25MM
5. Buster Posey, Giants (2008, 1/5): $6.2MM
6. Tim Beckham, Rays (2008, 1/1): $6.15MM
7. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks (2005, 1/1): $6.1MM
8. Matt Wieters, Orioles (2007, 1/5): $6MM
9. Eric Hosmer, Royals (2008, 1/3): $6MM
10. Joe Borchard, White Sox (2000, 1/12): $5.3MM

The Cole and Starling deals pushed Manny Machado and Zach Lee (both 2010 draft picks with $5.25MM bonuses) out of the top ten.

The 30 Opening Day starters aren't the 30 best pitchers in the game, but their managers do consider them the best arms currently available. Here's a list of the pitchers who got the Opening Day nod this year and how their current teams acquired them (note that many have since signed extensions that delayed their arrival on the free agent market):

Draft Picks (12)

• Stephen Strasburg, Nationals – Selected in the first round of the 2009 draft (1st overall).
• Justin Verlander, Tigers – Selected in the first round of the 2004 draft (2nd overall).
• Ricky Romero, Blue Jays – Selected in the first round of the 2005 draft (6th overall).
• Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers – Selected in the first round of the 2006 draft (7th overall).
• Tim Lincecum, Giants – Selected in the first round of the 2006 draft (10th overall).
• Jered Weaver, Angels – Selected in the first round of the 2004 draft (12th overall).
• Yovani Gallardo, Brewers – Selected in the second round of the 2004 draft.
• Jon Lester, Red Sox – Selected in the second round of the 2002 draft.
• Josh Johnson, Marlins – Selected in the fourth round of the 2002 draft.
• Jake Arrieta, Orioles – Selected in the 5th round of the 2007 draft.
• James Shields, Rays – Selected in the 16th round of the 2000 draft.
• Tommy Hanson, Braves – Selected in the 22nd round of the 2005 draft.

Free Agent Signings (8)

• Kyle Lohse, Cardinals – Signed a free agent contract worth $4.25MM in March, 2008. 
• Ryan Dempster, Cubs – Signed a free agent contract worth $52MM over four years in November, 2008.
• C.C. Sabathia, Yankees – Signed a free agent contract worth $161MM over seven years in December, 2008.
• Colby Lewis, Rangers – Signed a free agent contract worth $5MM over two years in January, 2010.
• Brandon McCarthy, Athletics – Signed a free agent contract worth $1MM in December, 2010.
• Carl Pavano, Twins – Signed a free agent contract worth $16.5MM over two years in January, 2011. The Twins originally traded for him in 2009, but Pavano has since hit free agency.
• Bruce Chen, Royals – Signed a free agent contract worth $9MM over two years in November, 2011.
• Erik Bedard, Pirates – Signed a free agent contract worth $4.5MM for one year in December, 2011.

Trades (7)

• John Danks, White Sox – Acquired from the Rangers in the December, 2006 trade that sent McCarthy to Texas. 
• Johan Santana, Mets – Acquired from the Twins in a February, 2008 trade that sent Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey to Minnesota. 
• Justin Masterson, Indians – Acquired from the Red Sox in a July, 2009 trade that sent Victor Martinez to Boston.
• Roy Halladay, Phillies – Acquired from the Blue Jays in a December, 2009 trade that sent Michael Taylor, Travis d'Arnaud and Kyle Drabek to Toronto. 
• Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks – Acquired from the Yankees in a December, 2009 trade involving the Yankees and Tigers.
• Edinson Volquez, Padres – Acquired from the Reds in a December, 2011 trade that sent Mat Latos to the Reds.
• Jeremy Guthrie, Rockies – Acquired from the Orioles in the February, 2012 trade that sent Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom to Baltimore.

International Free Agent Signings (3)

• Wandy Rodriguez, Astros – Signed as an amateur free agent in 1999.
  
• Felix Hernandez, Mariners – Signed as an amateur free agent in July, 2002.
• Johnny Cueto, Reds – Signed as an amateur free agent in 2004.

The cutoff for super two players after the 2012 season will be two years and 134 days of service time, according to preliminary internal studies by CAA (Twitter link). A year ago this time the agency correctly anticipated that the 2011 cutoff would be two years and 146 days of service time.

This would be good news for players such as Josh Thole, Chris Johnson, Michael Saunders, Tyler Colvin, Sam Fuld, Esmil Rogers, Drew Storen and Mark Melancon. They'll project as super twos this coming offseason, assuming they accrue a full year of service in 2012 and the CAA projection is accurate.

Super two status entitles certain players to four years of arbitration eligibility, rather than the usual three. In other words, they'll earn more than their peers. Under baseball's new collective bargaining agreement, 22% of players qualify as super twos. This represents an increase from 17% and helps explain why the cutoff is lower than it was a year ago.

Jonathan Lucroy would qualify as a super two if the cutoff falls at 2.134. If he qualifies, he'll earn an additional $2MM over the course of the extension he recently signed. 

The following players will finish the season with less than two years and 134 days of service time: Carlos Santana, Justin Smoak, Danny Valencia, Michael Brantley, Jordan Schafer, Giancarlo Stanton, Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg, Daniel Hudson, Dan Runzler, Andrew Cashner and Alexi Ogando. They don't project as super twos, so their teams may only have to worry about going through the arbitration process three times.

I looked ahead to some upcoming first-time arbitration eligible players earlier in the year.

No right-handed pitcher had surpassed the $105MM contract that Kevin Brown signed in 1998 until this week, when the Giants locked up one of the National League’s best starters. Now that Brown’s contract has been erased from the books, current players hold the record for every position. Let’s check in on the biggest deals in baseball history by position:

• Right-handed pitcher: Matt Cain signed for five years and $112.5MM in April, 2012.
• Left-handed pitcher: C.C. Sabathia signed for seven years and $161MM in December, 2008.
• Relief pitcher: Jonathan Papelbon signed for four years and $50MM in November, 2011.
• Catcher: Joe Mauer signed for eight years and $184MM in March, 2010.
• First base: Albert Pujols signed for ten years and $240MM in December, 2011.
• Second base: Chase Utley signed for seven years and $85MM in January, 2007.
• Third base: Alex Rodriguez signed for ten years and $275MM in December, 2007.
• Shortstop: Alex Rodriguez signed for ten years and $252MM in December, 2000.
• Outfield: Manny Ramirez signed for eight years and $160MM in December, 2000. Matt Kemp signed for eight years and $160MM in November, 2011.