Uncategorized News & Rumors

Johnny Damon, Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui, Magglio Ordonez and Luke Scott highlight the list of unsigned designated hitters. Jorge Posada and Manny Ramirez are also out there and Bobby Abreu and Alfonso Soriano could become available in trades. Some would say free agent first baseman Prince Fielder is well on his way to becoming a DH, but he’ll presumably sign as a first baseman. 

The market for designated hitters tends to favor buyers and this year is no exception. Here's a look at the American League teams with possible DH openings:

• Rays – When the offseason began, Andrew Friedman spoke about his intention to add offense without sacrificing defense. The Rays have an opening at DH, the one spot in the lineup where defense doesn't matter at all. The Rays will likely add a bat or two before Opening Day, perhaps a DH.
• Blue Jays – Edwin Encarnacion finished the 2011 season strong and projects as the Blue Jays' DH heading into 2012.
• Orioles – The Orioles appear to have expressed some interest Soriano and Scott, which shows they're open to a DH-type acquisition.
• Twins – The Twins no longer have Jim Thome, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Delmon Young around, but Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit could be in the DH mix in 2012. It'd be a surprise if they add a high-profile DH.
• Athletics – Brandon Allen, Daric Barton, Chris Carter and Kila Ka'aihue figure to compete for playing time at first base and could enter the DH mix. Oakland hasn’t been a top destination for free agent bats in recent years, but agents for unsigned DHs may give Billy Beane a call to determine his interest in adding a hitter.
• Mariners – The Mariners don't have a fixture at DH. Left fielders Mike Carp and Casper Wells project as DH options for manager Eric Wedge.

Prince Fielder news and rumors will likely dominate the coming month at MLBTR, but only one team can sign the powerful 27-year-old. A number of other clubs will look to add second-tier first basemen, so it’s time to look beyond the highest profile free agent to some alternatives at first base and their potential suitors. 

As MLBTR's Free Agent Tracker shows, Casey Kotchman, Derrek Lee and Carlos Pena are still available. Luke Scott and Jorge Posada could be options at first, though they've spent most of their respective careers at other positions. A number of backup types also remain unsigned. First base prospect Anthony Rizzo’s name is frequently floated in trade rumors and the Angels have a surplus of players at the position. Here’s a look at some teams that could still have interest in first basemen not named Fielder:

• Rays – The Rays have had a clear need for a first baseman since Kotchman hit free agency after the season. They could hunt for bargains, but Kotchman's .306/.378/.422 line won't be easy to duplicate.
• Blue Jays – Adam Lind hasn't posted an on-base percentage above .300 since his breakout 2009 season. Edwin Encarnacion provides the Blue Jays with depth and a threat against left-handed pitching.
• Indians – Matt LaPorta and Carlos Santana figure to get most of the playing time at first base, but at some point the 26-year-old LaPorta may run out of chances (.238/.304/.397 line as a Major Leaguer).
• Mariners – Like LaPorta, Justin Smoak joined his team in a midseason trade for a dominant left-handed starter. Smoak has a similarly unimpressive .227/.316/.385 line as a Major Leaguer, but he showed signs of promise toward the beginning of the 2011 campaign.
• Rangers – The Rangers say Mitch Moreland is their first baseman, despite his struggles against left-handed pitching.
• Athletics – Brandon Allen, Daric Barton, Kila Ka'aihue and Chris Carter are all options for the Athletics heading into 2012, but it would be an exaggeration to say they have an established first baseman.
• Nationals – Adam LaRoche figures to start at first unless the Nationals sign Fielder.
• Brewers – Mat Gamel hits minor league pitching (28 homers and a .310/.372/.540 line last year) and he may get his chance to stick in the big leagues in 2012.
• Cubs – Bryan LaHair posted a .331/.405/.664 line with 38 home runs at Triple-A in 2011. Theo Epstein sounds optimistic about the 29-year-old's ability to hit at the MLB level.
• Pirates – If the season opened today, Casey McGehee and Garrett Jones would likely be the Pirates' primary options at first.
• Astros – Like LaPorta and Smoak, Brett Wallace is a former top prospect who hasn't hit MLB pitching to this point in his career (.248/.323/.354 career line).

A slew of unsigned starting pitchers remain on the free agent market, as well as several trade candidates. Which teams are or might be in the hunt?

• Orioles: With pitchers like Paul Maholm and Joe Saunders on the radar, the O's don't seem to be seeking high-end upgrades unless they are to trade Adam Jones.
• Red Sox: Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves could fill out Boston's rotation, though added depth beyond Carlos Silva might be nice.
• Yankees: The Yankees have a functional rotation now, but they could add Edwin Jackson's innings if the price is right.
• Blue Jays: The Blue Jays seem focused on adding a front-end starter if any.
• Tigers: GM Dave Dombrowski told Lynn Henning of the Detroit News that he was actively involved in talks for Gio Gonzalez.  He said he did not offer Jacob Turner for Matt Garza, however, and seems to be in the market just for a swingman type.
• Royals: They've added Jonathan Sanchez and re-signed Bruce Chen, but also had interest in young, controllable starters Mat Latos and Gio Gonzalez.
• Athletics: The A's have plenty of young rotation depth, but I wouldn't be surprised if they add a cheap veteran to the mix.
• Mariners: The Mariners have a strong front three and immensely talented starters on the way, and will probably be done if they complete a deal with Hisashi Iwakuma.
• Marlins: The Marlins appear to be considering adding a front-end starter or else standing pat, as they've been linked to Gonzalez and Garza.
• Mets: It's easy to picture the Mets adding a veteran on a one-year deal.
• Cubs: The Cubs have enough arms to cobble together a rotation, but a free agent is possible, especially if they trade Garza without receiving an MLB-ready starter in return.
• Pirates: The Bucs are known to be prioritizing one more starter.
• Diamondbacks: They have internal options, but could bring in a veteran to compete for the fifth starter job.
• Rockies: The Rockies are looking to supplement their rotation with Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Francis, or Kevin Millwood, reportedly, and others are likely on the radar.

MLB Trade Rumors is the only website you need to track the progress of the 100+ arbitration eligible players this month, a list that includes Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Hunter Pence, Clayton Kershaw, and David Price.  January 17th is a date to keep in mind; that is the deadline for players and teams to exchange salary figures.  Important links:

• MLBTR's arbitration tracker, which shows all arbitration eligible players and their salary submissions, midpoints, and settlement amounts while allowing you to filter by team and signing/hearing status.
• Matt Swartz's projected 2012 salaries for all arbitration eligible players.  You won't find anything else like this on the web.
• MLBTR's arbitration eligible series with breakdowns by team.
• Ben Nicholson-Smith's arbitration primer.
• Important arbitration-related dates.

Every offseason has a few trades most people didn't see coming.  Here are my picks so far:

1. Reds acquire Mat Latos from Padres for Yonder Alonso, Edinson Volquez, Yasmani Grandal, and Brad Boxberger.  The Reds have clearly been in the hunt for a front-of-the-rotation starter since last summer, but Latos' availability was surprising.  Latos is a 24-year-old with a 3.37 career ERA and 93 mile per hour fastball, and he's under team control for four more seasons.  He's the type of pitcher even non-contending teams are usually looking to acquire.  As with the Rockies and Ubaldo Jimenez, perhaps Padres GM Josh Byrnes believed Latos was at peak value.  Or maybe he just couldn't resist a chance to acquire the team's future first baseman, catcher, and closer, an intriguing wild card in Volquez, and the depth to move Anthony Rizzo to fill another need. 
2. Blue Jays acquire Sergio Santos from White Sox for Nestor Molina.  Most assumed the White Sox would move some players close to free agency, but Santos recently signed a contract that allows team control through 2017.  He won't see his first $4MM+ salary until 2015, and only then if the first of three club options is exercised.  The arguments for trading Santos: relievers have short shelf lives, the White Sox had good bullpen depth, and a top closer is a luxury on a potentially rebuilding club.  Still, it's surprising Molina was the sole return.  Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein believes Molina projects as "a future No. 4 starter with some chances of being a three."  The White Sox are banking on the righty to buck the industry opinion.
3. Padres acquire Huston Street from Rockies for Nick Schmidt at $1MM, Padres acquire Carlos Quentin from White Sox for Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez.  These two deals sandwiched the Padres' Latos trade and suggest a win-now mentality that doesn't mix with moving an ace.  However, the commitments in prospects was minor for the Padres and both players are only under contract for one more year.  Street and Quentin likely created surplus trade value for Byrnes, and the price for Quentin was surprisingly low.  Plus, we can't say for sure the Latos trade worsened the 2012 Padres until we see how Byrnes sorts out his current logjams.
4. Red Sox acquire Mark Melancon from Astros for Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland.  Melancon, the former Astros' closer, is under team control for five more seasons and therefore was generally assumed unavailable.  The Santos and Melancon trades suggest a newfound willingness to move relievers in their prime, which makes you wonder what a Kenley Jansen or Greg Holland could fetch.
5. Diamondbacks acquire Trevor Cahill, Craig Breslow, and cash from Athletics for Jarrod Parker, Collin Cowgill, and Ryan Cook.  Most people assumed Gio Gonzalez would be moved rather Cahill, and instead A's GM Billy Beane traded both.  The Santos and Cahill trades remind us that long-term extensions don't take players off the trade market.  It was also surprising that the D'Backs targeted Cahill and were willing to surrender Parker.  GMs are less attached to top prospects they didn't acquire, though — Parker wasn't a Kevin Towers draft pick, and Rizzo wasn't a Byrnes acquisition.
6. Angels acquire Chris Iannetta from Rockies for Tyler Chatwood.  Here's another example: Jerry Dipoto didn't draft Chatwood.  Dipoto was willing to move six years of the 22-year-old righty for the more immediate impact brought by one year of Iannetta.  The Rockies, meanwhile, may feel there's little difference between Iannetta and new catcher Ramon Hernandez for 2012.

So far this offseason, starting pitchers Erik Bedard, Freddy Garcia, Chien-Ming Wang, and Jason Marquis have signed one-year deals.  On average, they're guaranteed just under $4MM apiece.  This type of starter can return great value, as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs recently explained.  Who are the remaining free agent starters expected to sign one-year deals?

As our free agent tracker shows, the starting pitching market is rife with one-year deal candidates.  Wei-Yin Chen, Bartolo Colon, Jeff Francis, Jon Garland, Rich Harden, Hisashi Iwakuma, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Paul Maholm, Roy Oswalt, Brad Penny, Joel Pineiro, and Joe Saunders should all be in line for Major League deals.  Jackson is a lock for a multiyear deal, while Chen, Maholm, and Saunders have good shots.  Kuroda and Oswalt seem to prefer one year, and are popular targets.  Guys like Colon and Francis are coming off solid seasons and have cases for multiyear deals, since Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, and Bruce Chen were able to get two years.  Francis has a better chance than Colon, but those two-year offers are going to dry up shortly.

Starters such as Aaron Cook, Kyle Davies, Zach Duke, Livan Hernandez, Kevin Millwood, Ross Ohlendorf, Tim Wakefield, and Chris Young are also on the market.  Hernandez and Millwood have the best arguments for big league deals.  In January, 40-man rosters generally have some room, but not so much once we hit February.

The recent five-year, $65MM extension given to John Danks came as a surprise to the baseball community for two main reasons. For starters, it was the first time the club has ever given a five-year contract to a pitcher, as owner Jerry Reinsdorf prefers to keep pitchers on deals of three years or less. Secondly, it seemed to contradict GM Ken Williams' statements from earlier in the month. Soon after trading reliever Sergio Santos to the Blue Jays, Williams spoke to reporters and invoked the R-word: rebuilding.

However, earlier this week, Williams clarified his comments and explained his gameplan for the near future:

"We are still in win mode,” the GM said. “But at the same time that you’re in win mode, you can be in a little bit of a rebuilding phase, and I tried to articulate that, although I guess that message got lost after I said we were rebuilding. I tried to articulate that it wouldn’t be dominoes falling in terms of a true rebuilding because we have too many good veterans, and veterans looking to bounce back.”

Last week, MLB.com's Scott Merkin wrote that the White Sox's true intentions can best be gauged by keeping an eye on veterans Carlos Quentin, Matt Thornton, and Gavin Floyd. With one of the three now out of the picture, it will be very interesting to see how Williams & Co. operate in the early months of 2012. Thornton, 35, will earn just $12MM across 2012 and 2013 with a club option for 2014. Meanwhile, with Matt Garza potentially on the move, Floyd could be one of the most attractive starters left available on the trade market.

Moving Quentin, who should earn about $7.5MM this season through arbitration, definitely helps to ease costs, as does offloading Jason Frasor's modest $3.75MM salary. However, the club is still saddled with hefty, multi-year commitments to both Alex Rios and Adam Dunn.

It seems that the White Sox are looking to start fresh, but the Danks extension shows a desire to remain competitive in the short-term. If you were in the driver's seat, what direction would you look to take the club?

Everyone loves having relievers that can strike batters out in their bullpen, guys that can record outs all by themselves without the help of their defense. That comes in handy when there are men in base, since it's really hard to score without putting the ball in play. Take David Robertson of the Yankees for example; he faced 19 batters with the bases loaded last season and struck out 14 of them. Great way to prevent runs.

The pool of unsigned free agent relievers is at least 30 pitchers deep, but not all of those relievers are strikeout guys. We're going to take a look at those with an affinity for strike three using two metrics: K/9 and K%. You're probably familiar with K/9, which is strikeouts per nine innings. The league average was 7.13 K/9 in 2011, and Kenley Jansen led all qualified relievers with 16.10 K/9. The second metric, K%, is simply the percentage of batters faced that the pitcher struck out. It's a more accurate measure of strikeout proficiency. The league average was 18.6% in 2011, and Jansen again led all qualified relievers at 44.0%. 

As you'll see below, the K/9 and K% leaderboards are similar but not identical. More efficient pitchers will have a higher K%, even though they may have a lower K/9 than their baserunner-prone counterparts. Here are lists of unsigned free agent relievers with above average K/9 and K% rates. 

Strikeouts Per Nine Innings (K/9)

1. Kerry Wood – 10.06
2. Ryan Madson – 9.20
3. Mike Gonzalez – 8.61
4. Michael Wuertz – 8.55
5. Juan Cruz – 8.51
6. Chad Durbin – 7.77
7. Fernando Rodney – 7.31

Dan Wheeler just missed the cut with a 7.11 K/9. He would have posted an above average 7.30 K/9 with just one more strikeout last year, and I'm sure an umpire robbed him of a strike three call somewhere along the line. Free agent closer Francisco Cordero struck out a well below average 5.43 batters per nine innings last year.

Strikeouts Per Batters Faced (K%)

1. Wood – 25.5%
2. Madson – 25.2%
3. Cruz – 23.0%
4. Gonzalez – 22.2%
5. Wuertz – 19.8%
6. Wheeler – 19.4%
7. Durbin – 18.6%

Rodney (17.3%) drops off the list in favor of Wheeler, which essentially means that more of the outs he recorded were strikeouts, but Wheeler was more efficient and struck out a higher percentage of the batters he faced. Make sense? Cordero was again well below average at 15.3%.