Uncategorized News & Rumors

So far this offseason, 33 players have signed multiyear deals. Albert Pujols’ megacontract is worth 100 times as much as Laynce Nix’s relatively modest $2.4MM deal, so not all multiyear deals are created equal. But they demonstrate a willingness on the part of teams to commit long term and, usually, to spend more. Here's a look at which teams have spent most aggressively on multiyear deals for free agents so far this winter (extensions not included).

As MLBTR's Transaction Tracker shows, 19 of the 30 MLB teams have already signed at least one player to a multiyear deal. The Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Marlins lead the way with four apiece and the Phillies have signed three such deals. On the other hand, the Braves, White Sox, Reds, Indians, Astros, Yankees, Padres, Mariners, Rays, Blue Jays and Nationals have yet to sign a free agent to a multiyear deal. However, some of those teams have been linked to Prince Fielder and other free agents, so the offseason totals are by no means final.

Last offseason 22 clubs signed at least one player to a multiyear deal, as our Transaction Tracker shows. Five teams have avoided multiyear free agent deals in both of past two offseasons: the Braves, Indians, Astros, Rays and Blue Jays.

In some cases teams prefer long-term deals. Why lock a superstar player like Jose Reyes up for one-year when you can have him for six? And in some cases players prefer short-term deals. Why sign long-term after a disappointing season when an Adrian Beltre-like 'pillow contract' will allow you to re-establish your value? Generally speaking, however, players prefer multiyear security.

My six-year-old fantasy baseball website, RotoAuthority, re-launched this week, with a team of writers and tons of great content.  The latest:

• Bullpen depth charts for all 30 teams by Tim Dierkes.
• 7 Pitchers You Have To Draft, by Edwin Van Bibber-Orr.
• Dan Mennella explains why Kenley Jansen is a sleeper and Michael Young is a bust.

Back in April, I outlined the arbitration records for catchers, other position players, and starting pitchers.  As expected, some records will fall in 2012.

Going to arbitration for a fourth time, Mike Napoli is a lock to top Ivan Rodriguez's third-time catcher salary of $6.825MM.  Players have to love Super Two status.  Napoli's 2012 salary range is $8.3-11.5MM, with a $9.9MM midpoint.  We'll see whether long-term extension talks kick back up.

As first reported by MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith, Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury settled at $8.05MM for his second time through arbitration.  Ellsbury never had much chance at what I consider the second-time record, Miguel Cabrera's $11.3MM salary from 2007.  That salary was folded into a multiyear deal a few months after the agreement, but it remained unchanged.

The third-time position player record could be Prince Fielder's $15.5MM, though that was preceded by a multiyear deal.  Limiting it to year-to-year players, Alfonso Soriano's $10MM from 2006 fell with Andre Ethier's new $10.95MM deal, which could be topped again if Napoli or Hunter Pence win an arbitration hearing.  Pence's filing figures are $9MM and $11.8MM, with a $10.4MM midpoint.  He gets to cash in one more time as an arbitration eligible player in 2013, assuming he doesn't sign an extension with the Phillies.

This year David Price was unable to push past Dontrelle Willis' first-time starting pitcher settlement record of $4.35MM, set in 2006.  Some may consider Jered Weaver the record holder at $4.365MM, if an earned $100K award bonus is included.  Regardless, Clayton Kershaw crushes them all with his new $6.5-10MM range ($8.25MM midpoint).  Should Kershaw win an arbitration hearing or settle at the midpoint, he'll be at the Tim Lincecum pay scale.  The midpoint would beat Lincecum's first-time starting pitcher record filing figure of $8MM, which preceded his two-year deal.

The third-time starting pitcher record is Carlos Zambrano's $12.4MM.  With a $17-21.5MM spread and $19.25MM midpoint, Lincecum will fly past that, though he's coming off a multiyear deal.  Similarly, Cole Hamels settled at $15MM as a fourth-time arbitration player, but his first three years were covered in multiyear deal.  In a technical sense, Hamels' salary is second only to Fielder's $15.5MM in terms of arbitration settlements, and Lincecum will easily top both unless he signs a multiyear deal.

Be sure to keep track of all the arbitration settlements, submissions, and midpoints with MLBTR's arbitration tracker.

The dust appears to be settling from today's arbitration agreement madness.  A few more settlements may trickle in, but at the moment our arbitration tracker shows 59 unsigned players spanning 22 teams.  Big names include Tim Lincecum, Hunter Pence, Matt Garza, Clayton Kershaw, and Mike Napoli.  These players all exchanged figures with their teams.  The deadline was noon central time today.

After figures are exchanged, teams and players often agree at the midpoint.  A few teams, however, have traditionally treated the exchange of figures as a deadline, and as a policy go to hearings after that point.  If these teams are still using the "file and trial" strategy, we'll see hearings for Jed Lowrie (Astros), Casey Janssen and Brandon Morrow (Blue Jays), Emilio Bonifacio and Anibal Sanchez (Marlins), and John Lannan and Mike Morse (Nationals).

Any of the 50+ players to file are candidates to go to a hearing in February if an agreement cannot be reached.  At a hearing, the team and the player's agency each take an hour to defend their salary submission, and an independent three-person panel picks one of the salaries.

Last year, 33 players filed numbers, three went to hearings, nine signed multiyear extensions, and 21 settled within $250K of the midpoint.

RotoAuthority was my first website, started in June 2005.  The site was brimming with fantasy baseball analysis, often off the beaten path.  My posts became sporadic as MLBTR grew, so I've recruited a team to ensure regular, high-quality content for 2012.  The group includes familiar names such as Mark Polishuk, Dan Mennella, Steve Adams, and Mike Axisa.  We'll be covering everything you need to win your mixed league, including sleepers, busts, rankings, average draft position, projections, and position battles.  Our newest posts:

• Projecting Gio Gonzalez
• Analysis of the Kuroda/Pineda/Montero transactions
• The Blue Jays' Left Field Battle

By this time tomorrow, all unsigned arbitration eligible players will have exchanged proposals with their respective teams. We'll be keeping track of everything at MLBTR, but in the meantime here are some links to posts and resources that will help make sense of arbitration, a fixture in baseball offseasons for nearly 40 years:

• MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker offers a look at the many unsigned players plus those who have already agreed to terms.
• MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz listed his projected arbitration salaries and they've been on the money so far.
• Swartz also broke down arbitration salaries for hitters and pitchers, explaining the importance of innings pitched, home runs and RBI.
• Last offseason I weighed in on what matters in arbitration and explained what doesn't apply.
• Teams and players make the headlines, but agencies are an integral part of the process, so check out our Agency Database.

An explanation of the many ways to enjoy MLB Trade Rumors:

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The second version of our Baseball Trade Rumors iPhone app came out recently, with plenty of upgrades.  In the name of constant improvement, we're already looking into what should be done for version 3.  The app's commenting feature needs a tune-up, and we're also looking into developing a similar app specifically for the iPad.  The price of the iPhone app will remain $2.99.  Beyond that, if you have purchased our iPhone app, what would you like to see added or changed?  Please click here to take the simple one-question survey.

Prince Fielder headlines a handful of high-profile Scott Boras clients who remain available in free agency, but most of the offseason’s top free agents have signed contracts by now. Here’s a look at possible suitors for the top ten remaining free agents (ranking on MLBTR’s list of top 2012 free agents in parentheses):

• Prince Fielder (2) – Fielder will sign before Spring Training and the Nationals are among the teams with interest. Boras, who seeks a long-term deal for Fielder, is currently in Phoenix working to sell MLB owners on the first baseman.
• Edwin Jackson (6) – The Yankees and Orioles have been linked to the right-handed Boras client, but the Yankees are said to be reluctant to commit to a long-term contract.
• Hiroki Kuroda (15) – The Yankees and Red Sox have some interest in Kuroda, who will pitch in MLB in 2012. The Rockies had some interest, but they aren’t likely to meet Kuroda's asking price.
• Carlos Pena (16) – The Indians, Rays and Pirates seem like potential destinations for Pena, another Boras client.
• Roy Oswalt (18) – The Red Sox have some interest in Oswalt, who seeks a one-year deal.
• Javier Vazquez (19) – It still seems likely that the durable right-hander will retire.
• Bartolo Colon (27) – The market for Colon has been surprisingly quiet, as Mike Axisa explained at River Ave. Blues this morning.
• Jeff Francis (32) – The Mariners and Pirates were among the teams linked to Francis earlier in the offseason.
• Casey Kotchman (36) – Like Pena, Kotchman could be a fit for the Indians, Rays or Pirates.
• Johnny Damon (39) – Could the Athletics or Orioles offer Damon an everyday job as he continues to approach the 3,000 hit plateau?
• Honorable mentions – Joe Saunders (non-tendered by the Diamondbacks in December) and Yoenis Cespedes (not yet officially a free agent).

Juan Pierre, Joel Pineiro and Kerry Wood are the only other unsigned players who made MLBTR’s list of top free agents. At this point last year, 11 of MLBTR's top 50 free agents remained unsigned.

Our Android app is now available in the marketplace!  It costs $2.99 and is called Baseball Trade Rumors.  The app's features:

• Select only the players or teams you want, and receive a notification for every related new rumor
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