Uncategorized

So far this offseason, starting pitchers Erik Bedard, Freddy Garcia, Chien-Ming Wang, and Jason Marquis have signed one-year deals.  On average, they're guaranteed just under $4MM apiece.  This type of starter can return great value, as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs recently explained.  Who are the remaining free agent starters expected to sign one-year deals?

As our free agent tracker shows, the starting pitching market is rife with one-year deal candidates.  Wei-Yin Chen, Bartolo Colon, Jeff Francis, Jon Garland, Rich Harden, Hisashi Iwakuma, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Paul Maholm, Roy Oswalt, Brad Penny, Joel Pineiro, and Joe Saunders should all be in line for Major League deals.  Jackson is a lock for a multiyear deal, while Chen, Maholm, and Saunders have good shots.  Kuroda and Oswalt seem to prefer one year, and are popular targets.  Guys like Colon and Francis are coming off solid seasons and have cases for multiyear deals, since Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, and Bruce Chen were able to get two years.  Francis has a better chance than Colon, but those two-year offers are going to dry up shortly.

Starters such as Aaron Cook, Kyle Davies, Zach Duke, Livan Hernandez, Kevin Millwood, Ross Ohlendorf, Tim Wakefield, and Chris Young are also on the market.  Hernandez and Millwood have the best arguments for big league deals.  In January, 40-man rosters generally have some room, but not so much once we hit February.

The recent five-year, $65MM extension given to John Danks came as a surprise to the baseball community for two main reasons. For starters, it was the first time the club has ever given a five-year contract to a pitcher, as owner Jerry Reinsdorf prefers to keep pitchers on deals of three years or less. Secondly, it seemed to contradict GM Ken Williams' statements from earlier in the month. Soon after trading reliever Sergio Santos to the Blue Jays, Williams spoke to reporters and invoked the R-word: rebuilding.

However, earlier this week, Williams clarified his comments and explained his gameplan for the near future:

"We are still in win mode,” the GM said. “But at the same time that you’re in win mode, you can be in a little bit of a rebuilding phase, and I tried to articulate that, although I guess that message got lost after I said we were rebuilding. I tried to articulate that it wouldn’t be dominoes falling in terms of a true rebuilding because we have too many good veterans, and veterans looking to bounce back.”

Last week, MLB.com's Scott Merkin wrote that the White Sox's true intentions can best be gauged by keeping an eye on veterans Carlos Quentin, Matt Thornton, and Gavin Floyd. With one of the three now out of the picture, it will be very interesting to see how Williams & Co. operate in the early months of 2012. Thornton, 35, will earn just $12MM across 2012 and 2013 with a club option for 2014. Meanwhile, with Matt Garza potentially on the move, Floyd could be one of the most attractive starters left available on the trade market.

Moving Quentin, who should earn about $7.5MM this season through arbitration, definitely helps to ease costs, as does offloading Jason Frasor's modest $3.75MM salary. However, the club is still saddled with hefty, multi-year commitments to both Alex Rios and Adam Dunn.

It seems that the White Sox are looking to start fresh, but the Danks extension shows a desire to remain competitive in the short-term. If you were in the driver's seat, what direction would you look to take the club?

Everyone loves having relievers that can strike batters out in their bullpen, guys that can record outs all by themselves without the help of their defense. That comes in handy when there are men in base, since it's really hard to score without putting the ball in play. Take David Robertson of the Yankees for example; he faced 19 batters with the bases loaded last season and struck out 14 of them. Great way to prevent runs.

The pool of unsigned free agent relievers is at least 30 pitchers deep, but not all of those relievers are strikeout guys. We're going to take a look at those with an affinity for strike three using two metrics: K/9 and K%. You're probably familiar with K/9, which is strikeouts per nine innings. The league average was 7.13 K/9 in 2011, and Kenley Jansen led all qualified relievers with 16.10 K/9. The second metric, K%, is simply the percentage of batters faced that the pitcher struck out. It's a more accurate measure of strikeout proficiency. The league average was 18.6% in 2011, and Jansen again led all qualified relievers at 44.0%. 

As you'll see below, the K/9 and K% leaderboards are similar but not identical. More efficient pitchers will have a higher K%, even though they may have a lower K/9 than their baserunner-prone counterparts. Here are lists of unsigned free agent relievers with above average K/9 and K% rates. 

Strikeouts Per Nine Innings (K/9)

1. Kerry Wood – 10.06
2. Ryan Madson – 9.20
3. Mike Gonzalez – 8.61
4. Michael Wuertz – 8.55
5. Juan Cruz – 8.51
6. Chad Durbin – 7.77
7. Fernando Rodney – 7.31

Dan Wheeler just missed the cut with a 7.11 K/9. He would have posted an above average 7.30 K/9 with just one more strikeout last year, and I'm sure an umpire robbed him of a strike three call somewhere along the line. Free agent closer Francisco Cordero struck out a well below average 5.43 batters per nine innings last year.

Strikeouts Per Batters Faced (K%)

1. Wood – 25.5%
2. Madson – 25.2%
3. Cruz – 23.0%
4. Gonzalez – 22.2%
5. Wuertz – 19.8%
6. Wheeler – 19.4%
7. Durbin – 18.6%

Rodney (17.3%) drops off the list in favor of Wheeler, which essentially means that more of the outs he recorded were strikeouts, but Wheeler was more efficient and struck out a higher percentage of the batters he faced. Make sense? Cordero was again well below average at 15.3%.

What MLB can tell us about the NBA and vice versa. GMs from both sports offer insight to MLBTR. 

When he was growing up in Massachusetts, long before he was paid to run a sports team, Sam Presti looked forward to nationally televised baseball games each week. Baseball runs in the water where Presti comes from, and the weekly contests featured players he didn’t see on his visits to Fenway Park. 

“We didn’t have cable and it was my chance to see National League teams that I never got to see,” he told me earlier this year. “I loved watching the Expos teams and the Cardinals, since I was introduced to a whole new group of players.” 

Today, Presti’s interest in baseball persists, albeit in a new way. The 35-year-old general manager of the NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder still follows baseball for the enjoyment of the sport. But he also watches with a sense of curiosity and competitiveness that he shares with a growing number of his peers around the NBA. Perhaps, their thinking goes, basketball teams can learn from baseball’s brightest minds and best-run franchises.

It’s not that Presti’s teams have failed to compete in the NBA. Led by Kevin Durant (pictured), the second overall pick in the 2007 draft, the team finished its most recent campaign with a 55-27 record. Before joining the Thunder, Presti worked for the San Antonio Spurs, one of the league’s most successful franchises, and was instrumental in the acquisition of point guard Tony Parker. So when Presti chats with MLB executives — and he knows his share of them — we can be sure he isn’t quizzing them on Russell Westbrook's court vision or Kendrick Perkins' defense. Instead, he looks to baseball people for insight on topics that apply to both sports.

“More than anything I think it helps you ask the right questions,” Presti said. “Questions about your game, your systems, your processes. I think that it’s healthy for us to ask the right questions. I think any time you’re watching another sport it definitely helps your imagination and creativity.”

There’s no shortage of creativity in today’s NBA. Many teams use objective analysis to supplement scouting reports and make decisions regarding personnel and strategy. For example, the perennially competitive Houston Rockets named Daryl Morey their general manager in 2007. A computer science graduate who grew up reading Bill James, Morey’s thirst for knowledge extends beyond the basketball court.

In that respect, he has a lot in common with Sam Hinkie. Now the Rockets’ executive VP of basketball operations, Hinkie works with Morey to construct the team’s roster, develop in-game strategies, and communicate with coaches. Before joining the Rockets, Hinkie consulted for two NFL teams, so he’s intimately familiar with the potential impact of inter-sport comparisons.

“There’s very little sharing that goes on within our sport for good reason,” Hinkie told me. “Every team is trying to do something and any foothold they might find, they don’t want to point out to anyone else.” 

But when it comes to sharing information across sports, teams aren’t so secretive. The resulting openness would be unthinkable within a single sport. And the big-picture topics sports executives explore with one another can have a significant impact on wins and losses. The potential for discussion is limitless.

“Psychology of individual players, how to prevent injuries, how to foster innovation within your organization in general, strength training,” Hinkie explains. “In a five minute conversation you pick up a lot where you think ‘that’s what they do, we should investigate more because it’s a similar challenge to the one we face.’”

In other words, they aren’t sharing statistical formulae — those wouldn’t actually apply to other sports — but the conversations are productive regardless. For example, Morey stays in touch with Cubs GM Jed Hoyer, who says sharing information across sports is considerably easier than doing so within MLB.

“No question,” he said. “Because if you have a good relationship with an executive in another sport and you talk about something technological it’s not going to impact his sport. I think it is sometimes easier.”

However, the search for a competitive advantage extends beyond the quest for more sophisticated technology and metrics. There’s meaning in statistics, as the modern-day fan and executive knows. Explaining this knowledge to the decision makers and players represents another challenge altogether.

“It’s being able to communicate those ideas to our coaches and our players as we try to actually take those ideas and drive changes,” Hinkie said. “I think [communication] is under-invested in, honestly. The quality of an idea relies heavily on your ability to get that point across.”

To suggest that basketball teams look up to baseball teams would be inaccurate. Though Bill James and others championed alternative thinking in baseball before similar movements gathered support in other sports, NBA teams have since developed advanced metrics of their own. But innovation in basketball often takes place privately, whereas there’s a tradition of public-sphere baseball analysis. 

Though crunching the numbers can be productive, execs can also learn from sports other than their own by watching the athletes themselves. Certain body types and skillsets thrive on a baseball diamond, while others are better suited to the basketball court, the hockey rink, or the cubicle. 

When Alex Anthopoulos watches athletes in other professional sports, he isn’t necessarily looking for the next Bo Jackson or Danny Ainge (Ainge, a former Blue Jays infielder and NBA guard who has become the Celtics’ GM, employs an analytically minded assistant GM in Boston). Anthopoulos’ scouting skills are unpolished when it comes to basketball or football, but he watches the sports nonetheless.

“I love scouting. I love evaluating. I love analyzing,” the Blue Jays GM told me. “I’m analytical probably to a fault. I probably overdo it at times. So I try to watch those other sports through a scouting lens even though I don’t know what I’m doing. I don’t know how to scout other sports.”

Not that it stops Anthopoulos from watching (he’s reportedly friendly with Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke, who also knows Hoyer). Even if he’s not a professional basketball scout, Anthopoulos can apply general scouting principles to sports other than baseball.

“I try to incorporate things that I incorporate in baseball,” he said. “So if I’m watching basketball, I’ll look at athleticism, body control. You have a delivery and arm action if you pitch. I look at your motion in the NBA, how you shoot, what your mechanics are, how that may impact the rotation and spin on the ball.”

It’s not just business, though. As a general rule, sports executives have the jobs they have because they enjoy sports immensely. But one of those sports has become a job, so watching other leagues can be way of enjoying competition for its own sake.

“I’m a sports fan,” Hoyer explained. “I enjoy watching other sports, since it’s not baseball — it’s not work, and I can be on the couch and enjoy myself watching a college basketball game or a football game.”

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Approximately one quarter of the teams in baseball won between 80 and 89 games last year. None of the seven clubs made the playoffs, but all of them were within striking distance of a postseason berth. The teams have had wildly different approaches to the 2011-12 offseason — at least so far. I've broken the clubs down into two groups, with their 2011 win totals in parentheses and links that send you to the club's offseason transactions summary:

Aggressive Spenders

• Angels (86) - The Angels signed Albert Pujols, C.J. Wilson and LaTroy Hawkins and traded for Chris Iannetta. GM Jerry Dipoto's debut offseason has been a busy one.
• Dodgers (82) - The Dodgers haven't quite kept up with the Angels, but they've spent considerably since the season ended. Matt Kemp signed a $160MM extension and Tony Gwynn, Aaron Harang, Jerry Hairston, Chris Capuano and Mark Ellis obtained two-year deals. Adam Kennedy, Juan Rivera, Matt Treanor, John Grabow and Josh Bard also signed with the Dodgers.

Restrained Spenders

• Braves (89) – GM Frank Wren exercised Eric Hinske's option, but that $1.5MM commitment represents the Braves' biggest offseason expense so far.
• Giants (86) - GM Brian Sabean has had a relatively quiet offseason so far, bringing back relievers Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez and Guillermo Mota and trading for outfielders Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan.
• Blue Jays (81) - The Blue Jays traded for Ben Francisco, Sergio Santos, Jeff Mathis, Luis Valbuena and picked up Edwin Encarnacion's option, but many Blue Jays fans continue salivating over the possibility of a major free agent acquisition.
• Nationals (80) - The Nationals traded for Gio Gonzalez and signed Mark DeRosa, Chien-Ming Wang, Jeff Fulchino and others. GM Mike Rizzo may not be done yet.
• Indians (80) – GM Chris Antonetti picked up Fausto Carmona's option, traded for Derek Lowe and re-signed Grady Sizemore, but otherwise the offseason has been quiet for Indians fans. The team also added a few former big leaguers on minor league deals and traded for Aaron Cunningham.

Two teams — the Cardinals and Tigers — graduated from the 80-89 win club to the postseason in 2011.

Five days ago the Associated Press published 2011 payrolls for the 30 teams based on information sent by the clubs to the commissioner's office.  They explain:

Figures are for 40-man rosters and include salaries and pro-rated shares of signing bonuses, earned incentive bonuses, non-cash compensation, buyouts of unexercised options and cash transactions. In some cases, parts of salaries that are deferred are discounted to reflect present-day values.

$2,999,557,280 was spent in total, so the $100MM or so spent by the Rangers or Mariners is about average.  The Yankees, of course, led with a $216MM figure.  That's 4.85 times the Royals' payroll, which was the lowest at about $45MM.  Maury Brown has quality analysis of over at The Biz of Baseball.  Below I thought it'd be interesting to break down the spending by league and division.

American League: $104.7MM per team

• AL East: $119.6MM per team
• AL Central: $90.5MM per team
• AL West: $103.9MM per team

National League: $95.8MM per team

• NL East: $105.9MM per team
• NL Central: $90.8MM per team
• NL West: $88.5MM per team

Baseball executives A.J. Hinch and Kenny Williams each batted around .219 in their big league careers.  That may help you visualize how I'm doing in MLBTR's free agent prediction contest this offseason.  With 7 of 32 correct, I currently rank 922nd out of over 5,000 entries.  In contrast, MLBTR readers Kay Jay, David Silverberg, Alex Gregor, and Shaun O'Toole lead the pack, pulling .375 averages that even Ty Cobb couldn't manage in his career.

A look at my October 31st predictions also shows that top 25 free agents Prince Fielder, Edwin Jackson, Ryan Madson, Hiroki Kuroda, Carlos Pena, Roy Oswalt, Javier Vazquez, Coco Crisp, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Paul Maholm remain unsigned.  It's no coincidence that half of them are represented by the Boras Corporation.  Here are some possibilities for the 10 best free agents still on the market.

2.  Prince Fielder – $153MM over six years might allow Boras to save face, claiming the second-highest average annual value in baseball history even if it'd mean falling well short of the $200MM landmark.  Obviously, $180MM over seven years would be better and isn't crazy, while an opt-out could sweeten the deal for Fielder and let him hit free agency again as a 30-year-old.  As MLB.com's Richard Justice notes, the market for Fielder is plain mysterious at this point.  If there's an obvious candidate to vastly overpay for Fielder, they've yet to be revealed.  The Orioles, Mariners, and Cubs are in the mix to some extent.  Jon Heyman of CBS Sports has recently mentioned the Nationals and Rangers, though those teams are viewed as unlikely by other reporters.  The Cubs and Mariners remain the current favorites. 

6.  Edwin Jackson – Though his pitching record won't change, Jackson will look more and more appealing over the next few weeks to teams looking for a rotation upgrade.  In a December 25th MLBTR poll of almost 17,000 MLBTR readers, the Yankees were the top pick with 19% of a well-divided vote.  Four days ago, Heyman named the Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles, Rockies, Marlins, and Tigers as teams looking for pitching.  The Pirates could be a dark horse, and if the Jackson market dips to around three years and $33MM more teams may jump in.  For EJax, things are just getting started.

14.  Ryan Madson – The Red Sox and Angels have been linked to Madson, who may or may not have been offered four years and $44MM by the Phillies before they signed Jonathan Papelbon.  If Madson is to find three years and $30MM, the Red Sox and Angels will have to start a bidding war.

15.  Hiroki Kuroda – If the Yankees take a pass, Kuroda could fall to the Red Sox, Cubs, or Hiroshima Carp.  One would think a half-dozen other teams would be in the mix for Kuroda on a one-year deal.

16.  Carlos Pena – It's been quiet on the Pena front, but he could work for the Rays, Indians, Cubs, or Brewers if the price falls.  I think another one-year deal is in order.

18.  Roy Oswalt – Six days ago, Heyman named the Red Sox, Marlins, Blue Jays, and Yankees as Oswalt suitors, excluding other teams that acquired starters since then.  On a one-year deal, any would-be contender could conceivably jump in.

19.  Javier Vazquez – Four days ago, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro said Vazquez maintains he is retiring.

21.  Coco Crisp – Crisp seeks a multiyear deal from a contender, and the Cubs and Dodgers could be possibilities.  The Marlins or Nationals could offer him the chance to stay in center field.

22.  Hisashi Iwakuma – My ranking for Iwakuma was probably too high; he might be looking at a one-year deal.  Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported two teams have viable interest in the righty, but the A's are lukewarm on him.

25.  Paul Maholm – I think Maholm will be able to find a two-year contract.  The Cubs were in the mix prior to adding Travis Wood and Andy Sonnanstine.  The Rockies have options, but they could still be a fit.  

Offense is becoming harder to find these days, especially power. Only 23 players hit 30 or more home runs in 2011, compared to 34 players five years ago and 41 players ten years ago. Unsurprisingly, power hitters like Albert Pujols and Carlos Beltran have already landed sizable contracts on the free agent market while a number of other sluggers are still poised to cash in.

Perhaps the best way to measure power isn't home runs or even slugging percentage, but isolated power, or ISO. ISO is simply slugging percentage minus batting average, which effectively removes singles to tell you extra bases per at-bat. The league average ISO in 2011 was .144, and Jose Bautista led all qualified hitters at .306. Curtis Granderson was second at .290 and Mike Stanton was third at .275. No other hitter qualified for the batting title and cleared a .270 ISO this past season.

Here are the remaining unsigned free agents with better than league average ISO's in 2011 (min. 200 PA)…

1. Prince Fielder – .267 ISO
2. Andruw Jones – .247
3. Carlos Pena – .237
4. Jason Varitek – .203
5. Jonny Gomes – .180
6. Derrek Lee – .179
7. Pat Burrell – .175 
8. Raul Ibanez – .174
9. Wilson Betemit – .169
10. Cody Ross – .165
11. Jorge Posada – .163
12. Johnny Damon – .156

Want to be the first to know where Prince Fielder, Carlos Beltran, and Gio Gonzalez land?  MLBTR is already coming at you from many angles, and now we have an option to receive text message alerts on your mobile phone.  

If you'd like to receive a text message on your cell phone for each significant MLB transaction, just text IMS2 MLBTR to 368674.  It's not case-sensitive but please note the space between "IMS2" and "MLBTR."  Each news text message will likely include a sponsored message at the end.  To comply with FCC text message regulations you are required to double opt-in by replying with a 1, then a yes to subscribe.  Once you successfully opt in, you'll receive a message that says "Thank you for subscribing!"

The service is free, though standard message and data rates may apply.  Your information will never shared or sold to third parties.  The MLBTR service will not work if your carrier is MetroPCS.

If you're an advertiser who would like to send a sponsored message following an MLBTR news text, contact Tim Dierkes at mlbtradvertising@gmail.com.

As usual, most arbitration cases remain unsettled as we approach the new year, including heavyweights such as Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Hunter Pence, and Clayton Kershaw.  MLBTR has created a handy database of all arbitration eligible players, which will include information on submissions from both sides, midpoints, and settlement amounts.  You can also filter by team and whether a hearing occurred.

As a reminder, this year players on MLB rosters with at least two years and 146 days but less than six years of service time are arbitration eligible.  Matt Swartz has projected salaries for all of these players exclusively for MLBTR, and you can find that information here.  We've all added Kelly Johnson, David Ortiz, and Francisco Rodriguez to this database, as they were free agents who accepted arbitration.

Important arbitration dates to keep in mind, according to the Associated Press:

• January 13th: Deadline for players to file for arbitration.  This is largely procedural.
• January 17th: Deadline for teams and players to exchange salary arbitration figures.  On this date and the day prior, expect dozens of settlements.  Teams can still negotiate after exchanging figures, although several teams employ a "file and trial" strategy in which they end negotiations on one-year deals once figures are exchanged to ensure a hearing occurs.  These teams have included the Rays, Nationals, Marlins, White Sox, Blue Jays, Braves, and Astros.
• February 1-21: Hearings occur in St. Petersburg, Florida.  In 2011, Pence, Jered Weaver, and Ross Ohlendorf had hearings.  At a hearing, a each side has an hour to argue for their salary figure, and a three-person panel picks one of the salaries.
• January is always a big month for multiyear extensions.  Last year we had 17.