The World Champion Washington Nationals are likely to move on from their remaining free agents, save for local institution Ryan Zimmerman and perhaps his first base partner Matt Adams, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. That means Daniel Hudson has likely priced himself out of the Nationals’ plans. Fernando Rodney could get another shot on a minor league deal, but GM Mike Rizzo has handed those out rather liberally this winter, and the bullpen barracks are looking pretty full: Javy Guerra, Fernando Abad, and David Hernandez are all competing for bullpen spots on minor league deals while Sean Doolittle, Will Harris, Tanner Rainey, Wander Suero and Roenis Elias look pretty good to secure their seats at the table. Hunter Strickland, and one of Joe Ross, Austin Voth, and Erick Fedde could also very well end up in the bullpen, leaving just a spot or two as truly up for grabs. Brian Dozier, the last of the Nats’ five remaining free agents, is all but gone now that Starlin Castro and Asdrubal Cabrera have been signed.
Nationals Rumors
MLBTR Polls: Washington Nationals’ Recent Additions
The defending champion Washington Nationals began their offseason in a holding pattern, awaiting the fates of two of their brightest stars: Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg. What shook out couldn’t have been more on-brand for the pitching-focused Nats. Strasburg re-upped with the only professional organization he’s known, while Rendon joined Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Joe Maddon on an Angels’ team frontrunning for Best Smiles in the AL West, if not the division crown.
Following those twining, superstar sagas, the Nats embarked on a period of relative calm throughout much of December. While waiting in the hallway with the Twins and Braves for Josh Donaldson to make his final contract demands, Nats’ GM Mike Rizzo contented himself with bringing back as much of the championship gang as he could manage. Living legend Howie Kendrick will be back for three-to-five starts per week somewhere in the infield, Yan Gomes returns to block Patrick Corbin sliders and share in the catching duties with Kurt Suzuki, and even mid-season bullpen stabilizer Javy Guerra will get another crack to stick in the bullpen on a minor league deal. Ryan Zimmerman continues to wait in the shadows, certain to re-sign at some point, though how regularly Mr. National will see the field in 2020 is entirely unclear.
This week, however, the Nats grew tired of waiting for Donaldson and moved to add a trio of free agents. Asdrubal Cabrera is the most familiar new/old face. The man most-often charged with protecting Juan Soto in the lineup during 2019’s second half returns to Washington on a one-year, $2.5MM guarantee. Cabrera put up insane numbers in August and September for the Nats (.323/.404/.565). While he bonded nicely with the club in his second stint in the District, the Nats’ can hardly expect Cabrera to put up anything close to the Rendonian line he boasted over the season’s final two months. Somewhere between Kendrick, (presumably) Zimmerman, and top prospect Carter Kieboom, Cabrera represents a capable option to gather loose change at-bats between first, second, and third base.
But the Nationals added a rival to that infield mix as well, inking Starlin Castro to a somewhat surprising two-year, $12MM deal. Ten years into his big league career, Castro turns just 30-years-old in March while carrying an uninspiring .280/.319/.414 career line. The Nats plan to let Castro have second base until Kieboom or somebody else takes it from him, and while he fits an organization ethos that trusts veteran contributors more than the average big league team, it’s hard to get too excited about a guy whose only real elite skill has been volume. He doesn’t strike out a ton, but he won’t take walks, and neither his speed nor power elicit much awe.
Castro did absolutely rip left-handed pitching in 2019, and in the right light, Castro’s home/road, left/right and 1sthalf/2ndhalf splits can all point to a player who deserves more credit than I’m giving him. For instance, he hit .302/.334/.558 in the second half and .286/.332/.447 away from Marlins Park. Together, Cabrera and Castro give the Nats two relatively similar players whose contributions will have to be monitored, like your favorite sublet, on a month-to-month basis.
Perhaps the most unassailable move made in this past week, funny enough, is the addition of spin-rate-savant Will Harris. Nats’ fans no doubt already hold a fondness for Harris after he surrendered the World Series winning home run to Kendrick late in game seven. Years of playoff disappointment prior to 2019 should have those in the District well-prepared to look beyond the volatility of playoff results and appreciate Harris for what he is: one of the best relievers in the league. After all, Astros’ manager AJ Hinch is hardly a doofus, and quibble if you will about his decision to let $324MM man Gerrit Cole languish away in the bullpen while Harris and Kendrick put the foul pole to work – but his decision to pitch Harris in that moment was entirely defensible. That he wanted Harris on the hill should further brighten the hearts of Nats’ fans, even if the three-year, $24MM deal given him at age-35 might cause some seat-squirming. Still, this is a guy with a 2.36 ERA/2.99 FIP over the last five seasons, and he insures the Nats’ bullpen against further wear-and-tear on Sean Doolittle or stagnation from hard-throwing righty Tanner Rainey.
Donaldson could still find himself suiting up next to Trea Turner on the left side of the Nats’ infield, but Rizzo has historically stuck to his number with position players, and if Donaldson’s demands have stretched beyond his comfortability, don’t expect the disciplined Rizzo to panic. Cabrera, Castro and Harris may not be the cavalry Nats’ fans expected to ride in to defend their first ever championship, but they’re here to help all the same. The question is, do they?
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Talks Between Nationals, Cubs On Kris Bryant Have ‘Gone Nowhere’
Recent talks between the Cubs and Nationals regarding Kris Bryant have “gone nowhere,” reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (via Twitter). Negotiations seemed to hit an impasse a few weeks ago, when the Cubs reportedly insisted upon the inclusion of promising center fielder Víctor Robles in any Bryant deal.
Notably, Washington has agreed to terms with Asdrúbal Cabrera on a one-year deal since Rosenthal’s report. Perhaps that takes them out of the running for Bryant or Nolan Arenado, two of the top trade candidates on the market, regardless. Cabrera, though, wouldn’t figure to stand in the way of an acquisition of a player as good as Bryant or Arenado. Indeed, Washington still doesn’t seem to be entirely ruling out a signing of star free agent Josh Donaldson. There’s yet opportunity to circle back to more eye-catching names than Cabrera and Starlin Castro, who the Nationals brought aboard yesterday.
Understandably, the Cubs seem to be setting a high price in talks on Bryant. Interested suitors, meanwhile, are wary of Bryant’s service time grievance. At the moment, the 28-year-old has two years of team control remaining. His $18.5MM projected salary is notable but still an unquestionable bargain for a player of his caliber. If Bryant wins the grievance, however (an outcome that would be unexpected but hardly impossible), he’d reach free agency at the end of next season instead. In that case, he would still be a highly appealing trade chip, but his value would no doubt take a hit. Thus, Bryant seems likely to stay put until the grievance is resolved.
Either way, it doesn’t appear Bryant will be headed to the nation’s capital, barring an unforeseen reignition of talks. Teams who lose out on Donaldson and Arenado would figure to be Bryant’s most ardent pursuers. The Braves, Rangers, and Twins have been among the most active searchers for upgrades at the hot corner. Of course, there’s no urgent need for the Cubs to trade Bryant, who, despite the pending grievance, might still be amenable to working out a long-term deal.
Josh Donaldson Reportedly Sets Asking Price
Weeks of bidding has reportedly driven the price tag for Josh Donaldson into the nine-figure range over a four-year term, with at least three clubs said to be sitting at that lofty price point. The end game may now be upon us.
The star third baseman has given teams what amounts to a firm and final asking price, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Donaldson is “simply waiting for one of the clubs to hit his number” — around $110MM — per the report.
It seems, then, that the Braves, Nationals, Twins, Rangers, Dodgers, and any other lurkers need only place a single phone call to Donaldson’s reps to get the paperwork started. With the first three of those clubs reportedly already close to Donaldson’s asking price, it doesn’t seem like a huge stretch to bridge the gap. On the other hand, it may be that these teams feel they’ve already moved well out of their comfort zone for a 34-year-old player with a not-so-distant injury history, however talented he may be.
We have seen this sort of bidding situation emerge before. Sometimes, the player ends up picking from among multiple, roughly equivalent offers, as reportedly occurred a few years back with Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist. In other cases, a team leaps up to meet the asking price, as then-Blue Jays and now-Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos did to land Russell Martin — a situation he discussed last year.
It’s interesting now to see Anthopoulos weighing another tough call on an older free agent. He has twice acquired Donaldson, first via trade in Toronto and then through free agency in Atlanta, and has twice been rewarded for doing so. But while Anthopoulos made no shortage of big-money strikes during his time with the Jays, he has run quite a tight ship with the Braves. Most teams pressing to win end up going out on a limb at some point or another. No doubt Anthopoulos is presently weighing whether to do so with Donaldson or take on somewhat different risks by seeking an alternative path to the quality bat he wishes to acquire.
The calculus is much the same for the other teams involved. For the Nationals, the luxury tax line is fast approaching after a series of other moves. Adding Donaldson would probably mean going past it, though that seems to be a palatable outcome after dipping under the bar last year and going on to snag a World Series win. The Twins have ample flexibility after piecing together a cost-conscious series of rotation moves. It’s arguable that the Minnesota organization is most in need of a boost and best positioned to take on the long-term financial risks. But there are probably other ways the team could go to improve as well.
It could be that we’re seeing a bit of a staring contest here. Even if every organization knows that it controls its own destiny with regard to Donaldson — meet his ask and he’s yours — they’d each rather get him for less. There are some exceptionally talented alternatives in Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado, but they’ll each require a sacrifice of talent and it’s far from clear how appealing the trade terms will be in both cases. Other possibilities, such as trading for Kyle Seager or signing Todd Frazier, rate as backup plans in comparison to the addition of Donaldson or one of his talent-level peers.
Nationals Sign David Hernandez
The Nationals have inked veteran reliever David Hernandez, according to the Baseball America transactions log. (BA stalwart Matt Eddy has handed the controls over to Chris Hilburn-Trenkle.)
Details aren’t available, but it’s surely a minor-league deal for the 34-year-old hurler. Hernandez is coming off of an especially trying campaign in which he carried a putrid 8.02 ERA over 42 2/3 innings with the Reds. He failed to turn things around in a late stint at Triple-A with the Yankees.
Thing is, little about Hernandez’s effort suggested those excruciating results. He racked up 11.2 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9 while carrying career highs in swinging-strike rate (14.7%), chase rate (35.3%), and first-strike rate (65.2%). Hernandez allowed more homers than you’d like, but 1.48 per nine hardly stood out in a season of the long ball.
In large part, Hernandez seems to have been the victim of poor fortune. He allowed a hefty .393 batting average on balls in play and carried a meager 54.5% strand rate. Statcast measurements indicate that opponents didn’t hit the ball any harder than usual. He was kicked around for a .376 wOBA that dwarfed the .318 xwOBA that the contact quality suggested.
The Nats will see in camp whether Hernandez deserves a shot at turning things around. He’s surely a better option than his 2019 ERA would suggest, though it remains to be seen whether he’ll warrant a pen slot in D.C.
Nationals Sign Will Harris
JAN. 3: The Nationals have announced the deal.
JAN. 2: The Nationals have agreed to a deal with free agent right-hander Will Harris, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link). The contract is a three-year pact worth $24MM, as per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Harris is represented by agent Gavin Kahn.
Reports from earlier today suggested that Harris could be nearing a signing, as he had multi-year offers on the table from more than one team. Though Harris has a long track record of success, a three-year commitment is significant considering that the righty turned 35 last August, and only two other relievers (Drew Pomeranz and Will Smith) received three or more guaranteed years in free agency this offseason. MLBTR projected a two-year, $18MM deal for Harris, as we ranked him 22nd on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.
The three-year pact was a major factor for Harris, as he told Mark Berman of KRIV Fox 26 (Twitter links). “The Nationals knew the importance of [the three-year deal] and they kept that on the table & made the decision that much easier,” Harris said. “We agreed to terms last weekend. From the beginning of the process the Nationals were pretty high on me. The interest was mutual.”
While Harris’ age is a natural question mark, he has a pretty clean injury history, with only two IL stints (totaling around six weeks in 2017 due to shoulder inflammation) over his nine MLB seasons. In that time, he has quietly posted some outstanding numbers, particularly as a member of Houston’s bullpen from 2015-19. Harris has a 2.36 ERA, 4.38 K/BB rate, and 9.5 K/9 over 297 innings, averaging 59 frames per season.
As you might expect from an Astros pitcher, Harris had an outstanding spin rate (96th percentile) on his fastball in 2019. His Statcast metrics also place him among the league’s best in curveball spin, hard-hit ball percentage, and xwOBA (.235, with only a .269 wOBA). Harris has also been consistently good at keeping the ball on the ground during his career, with a 49.6% grounder rate.
Unfortunately for Harris, the most famous pitch of his career is one that he couldn’t keep out of the air — the low fastball that Howie Kendrick just got enough of, as Kendrick launched Harris’ offering off the right field foul pole for the homer that put the Nationals ahead in Game Seven of last year’s World Series. In some unique baseball irony, Harris will now be joining the team that caused that bad memory, and he’ll even be sharing a clubhouse with Kendrick (who re-signed with the Nats on a one-year deal).
Clearly there aren’t any hard feelings on Harris’ part, and the Nationals are undoubtedly happy to add such a highly-touted reliever to their bullpen. Washington’s relief corps was a well-publicized mess for much of last season, before Daniel Hudson’s late-season emergence helped stabilize the pen enough to take the Nats through the postseason. Harris will lineup behind closer Sean Doolittle in 2020, and Harris’ presence now means that he’ll essentially replace Hudson in the District’s pen, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweets. The Nats were willing to give Hudson more than a one-year guarantee but not more than $6.5MM in average annual value, so they instead spent some extra money to land a more consistent reliever in Harris.
After re-signing Kendrick, Stephen Strasburg, and Yan Gomes, Harris represents the first major new face to join the Nationals this offseason. The bullpen was unquestionably a major need for the Nats, who also have to figure out vacancies at third base in the wake of Anthony Rendon’s departure, second base, and first base, though Kendrick will be deployed around the infield in some manner and star prospect Carter Kieboom is expected to play a bigger role in 2020.
The $8MM average annual value of Harris’ deal brings Washington’s estimated luxury tax number to just under $184MM, as per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. The Nats are still reportedly in the hunt for Josh Donaldson, whose market is now rumored to be in the four-year, $100MM range. Landing Donaldson, therefore, would put the Nats either right up against or slightly over the $208MM tax threshold, though since the club got under the threshold last season, they would be taxed at only a first-timer rate if they surpassed $208MM this season. The Nationals slightly exceeded the Competitive Balance Tax line in both 2017 and 2018, though they stayed in the lowest penalty zone (less than $20MM in overage).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Latest On Josh Donaldson
The Braves could lose third baseman Josh Donaldson in free agency, but they’re not going down without a fight. They’ve made the longtime star a four-year offer, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets. They join the Twins and Nationals as teams known to have made recent four-year proposals for Donaldson. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com said Thursday that all three teams seem willing to go to the four-year, $100MM range. The Dodgers and the Rangers can’t be counted out of the race, either, per Feinsand.
This has become an especially fascinating trip through free agency for Donaldson, who MLBTR predicted would sign a three-year, $75MM contract when the proceedings began. However, with fellow third baseman Anthony Rendon and a slew of other standout performers already off the market, the 34-year-old Donaldson is now easily the game’s premier player without a contract. And he partly controls the third base market, as teams that lose out on the Donaldson sweepstakes might pivot to a trade for the Cubs’ Kris Bryant or the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado with no other studs left in free agency.
In the Braves’ case, they could have the prospect capital to trade for Bryant or Arenado, though it remains to be seen whether they’ll go that route. The seven-year, $234MM Arenado’s still owed could prove too rich for their blood. Donaldson shouldn’t cost anywhere near that much in cash, nor would the Braves have to cough up young players for him, and they already know he can thrive in their uniform. The one-time MVP was an integral member of a 2019 Atlanta roster that took home its second consecutive NL East title.
Morosi: 50/50 Chance Of Nolan Arenado Trade
With the market showing a big appetite for star third basemen, the Rockies now appear to be increasingly likely to strike a trade involving Nolan Arenado. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports on Twitter that there’s now “roughly a 50/50 chance” of a deal coming together with one of the six teams to have expressed interest.
Oddsmaking of this sort is inherently ambiguous and non-verifiable, so skepticism is well warranted. And we heard just days ago that the Colorado organization hasn’t been especially aggressive in hammering out scenarios involving its biggest star. But if Morosi’s sources have an accurate read on the thinking of the Rockies’ leadership, then it’s at least now highly plausible that a swap could emerge. And that’d represent a notable development given the highly speculative nature of Arenado’s trade availability to this point. GM Jeff Bridich has previously made clear the team is open to considering proposals, but it has never seemed particularly likely that Arenado would be moved.
Notably, Arenado has full no-trade rights. But he has expressed a desire to win and may be willing to facilitate a deal if it means finding a better chance elsewhere. The Rox have decided against further payroll expansion and look to be in a bit of a bind when it comes to finding much-needed roster upgrades.
Even if that’s not a major complication, interested teams will be wary of giving up too much in trade capital for a contract that includes a post-2021 opt-out provision. It’d be one thing if Arenado was simply a high-cost player with two years of control, as is the case for Kris Bryant of the Cubs (another potential trade candidate, at least once his service-time grievance is wrapped up). But what’s worrisome in the Arenado deal is the combination of the threat of losing the player, in the event he performs well enough to opt out, with the fear of what it would mean if he doesn’t.
We just got open-market confirmation that the Rockies paid full boat for Arenado when they inked him last winter. Fellow star third bagger Anthony Rendon landed a seven-year, $245MM pact that just topped the $234MM promise Arenado received for the rights to the same number of would-be free agent campaigns. You could argue for days over which player is preferable — Rendon has outperformed Arenado in recent seasons, but also has had some health challenges in the past and is a bit older — but it seems fair to assess them both in the same general range of value.
Rendon’s deal includes full no-trade protection but no opt-out chances. Other than the cash required, it cost the Angels only some upcoming draft compensation. Given that, it’s a bit difficult to imagine an organization that came up short on Rendon would be particularly anxious to part with major young talent to acquire Arenado.
There is certainly some interest, though. The Rangers have perhaps been tied most closely to Arenado; the organization was highly disappointed to see Rendon land elsewhere in the division. The Braves are also said to have reached out, but it remains difficult to imagine that organization suddenly opening the books for such a massive deal. Morosi hints that the Dodgers have had some level of interest, but also says they’re not the primary suitor. It seems the Rox are not enamored of the idea of placing Arenado in the NL West. We might presume that the reputed pursuers of free agent Josh Donaldson — along with the Braves, the Twins and Nationals — are going to have at least some level of interest in Arenado. It seems there’s at least a mystery suitor or two floating around as well. Arenado is, after all, good enough to displace even a solid existing regular.
Morosi suggests (Twitter link) that the Nats have indeed spoken with the Colorado organization about Arenado. Unsurprisingly, the report indicates that the Nats aren’t keen to part with young center fielder Victor Robles for Arenado — or for the Cubs’ Kris Bryant. That more or less goes without saying, at least with regard to Arenado, for all of the reasons noted above (particularly since Rendon was the Nats’ own free agent). Robles has some things to iron out, but he’s also still just 22 years of age, can be controlled through the 2024 season, and just turned in a 2.5 fWAR / 4.1 rWAR campaign.
It’s tough to imagine a deal in which another team offers up significant assets to take on the entire Arenado contract. But the Rockies presumably won’t be interested in a deal that doesn’t feel like a win, both internally and to the fanbase. It’s interesting to ponder whether involving additional players — the Rox have a mix of surplus-value talent and underperforming contracts — might help form a more plausible structure than a classic veteran-for-prospect deal.
Latest On The Nationals’ First Base Situation
The Nationals had interest in switch-hitter Justin Smoak before Smoak signed with the Brewers last week, The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty reports. With Smoak off the board, the Nats will continue to explore left-handed hitting options for both first base and their lineup as a whole, given their overall right-handed tilt. As Dougherty notes, it’s quite possible that the Nationals bring back Matt Adams as that lefty bat, and Adams will again team with Howie Kendrick and (the still-to-be-signed) Ryan Zimmerman in a timeshare at first base.
Kendrick is already back in the fold, rejoining the World Series champions on a one-year deal worth $6.25MM in guaranteed money ($4MM in 2020 salary, and either a $2.25MM buyout of a mutual option for 2021, or $6.5MM in 2021 if both sides exercise that option). The versatile Kendrick spent the majority of his time as a first baseman in 2019, though he also saw action at both second base and third base. Those other two infield positions are now in a state of flux, what with Anthony Rendon gone to the Angels and Brian Dozier and Asdrubal Cabrera currently free agents, so Washington could prefer to deploy Kendrick around the infield rather than commit him to a larger portion of the first base playing time.
Zimmerman, of course, is a free agent himself, though the longtime District stalwart has indicated that he will either return to the Nationals on a year-to-year basis or potentially retire. “Both he and the Nationals remain willing to negotiate a cheap, one-year contract,” Dougherty writes, and “about $4MM has been floated as a price the sides could agree on.”
It seems to be more or less just a matter of time before Zimmerman officially returns to the fold for his 16th season in a Nats jersey, and his presence likely indicates that D.C. will stick with a platoon situation at first base. The club “ultimately decided that the price was too high” for Smoak, whose one-year deal with Milwaukee is worth $5MM in guaranteed money. It wasn’t a hefty figure, though perhaps too much for a Nationals team that is looking for a platoon partner rather than more of a full-time option like Smoak.
Eric Thames, Mitch Moreland, Greg Bird, Logan Morrison, Brad Miller, and Neil Walker are a few of the left-handed or switch-hitting first base options on the open market, though Adams represents a known quantity for the Nats. Over 610 plate appearances since joining the Nationals in August 2018, Adams has hit 38 homers with a .240/.302/.485 slash line. Long a force against right-handed pitching, Adams’ numbers against righties dipped in everything but the slugging department last season, though Dougherty said that Adams was bothered with some shoulder problems. Washington declined its end of Adams’ $4MM mutual option for 2020, making the 31-year-old into a free agent.
If the Nationals can find a power bat at another position, Dougherty writes that the team could simply just go with Zimmerman and Kendrick as the all right-handed first base platoon, given Kendrick’s solid numbers against same-sided pitching. The Nats continue to be one of the favorites to land Josh Donaldson as their new everyday third baseman, and, should Donaldson sign elsewhere, there have also been whispers that D.C. could try to acquire Kris Bryant from the Cubs. Both Donaldson and Bryant are also right-handed bats, though with either of them playing third base, the Nationals could then explore adding a multi-positional left-handed bench bat, or one that could share time at second base with rookie Carter Kieboom or the switch-hitting Wilmer Difo.
Remaining Needs: NL East
Quite a few of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have already signed, though there are still a host of players available on the open market. We’ve seen somewhat less action on the trade market, which still features a number of stars and other useful targets.
Those links provide lots of info on the supply side. But what about demand? We’ll run through each division to identify the biggest-remaining needs of each team.
Atlanta Braves [Offseason Outlook]
As they did last time around, the Braves sprinted out of the gates to address multiple key needs. But the club’s biggest question entering the winter — what to do about the departure of star third baseman Josh Donaldson — remains unanswered. It’s a good roster as-is, but the lineup would look a whole lot better with another big bat in the middle of it. If Donaldson can’t be retained, the Braves could look to the trade market at third base or pursue one of the remaining corner outfielders and re-shuffle their internal deck accordingly. The club seems quite settled otherwise but could still explore opportunistic rotation additions.
Miami Marlins [Offseason Outlook]
The Fish have spent the winter plugging in one-year veterans and jettisoning unwanted relievers. The idea was to create a mix that will improve the results a bit in the near term while simultaneously aiding the development of and avoiding undue pressure on young players. Much of that work is already done, but the team is reportedly still looking to add a power-hitting corner outfielder who’d supplement (or supplant?) recent minor-league signee Matt Kemp. Perusing the roster, it seems there’s also room to pick up a veteran pitcher or two to join the bullpen or perhaps the rotation. That’d become a clear priority in the event of a trade involving Caleb Smith, Jose Urena, or some other pitcher. Presumably, the club will continue to explore trade opportunities involving those and other players while keeping an eye on the waiver wire.
New York Mets [Offseason Outlook]
Aided by a renegotiation of the Yoenis Cespedes contract, the Mets have placed a series of expensive (a combined $25MM+) single-season bets on high-variance veteran pitchers. Having picked up two new starting-capable hurlers, a pair of bullpen pieces, and a part-time center fielder in Jake Marisnick, the New York org has already ticked the boxes it needed to.
So … why doesn’t it feel like GM Brodie Van Wagenen is finished? With a forthcoming ownership transition underscoring the need to win now, the club’s top baseball exec can’t afford to leave any stones unturned in his sophomore offseason. Installing a top-flight center fielder — Starling Marte looks like the best bet — would be at the top of the list, but the club can also explore blockbuster scenarios at other positions. It’s possible to imagine further improvements to the bench and bullpen mix, too. The Mets will be most keen to utilize blocked first baseman Dominic Smith as a trade chip — whether to bring back prospects, shed the Jed Lowrie contract, or deliver a different MLB piece — but younger big leaguers J.D. Davis and Steven Matz could also conceivably be dangled.
Philadelphia Phillies [Offseason Outlook]
The Phils landed two of MLBTR’s top dozen free agents, and they did so for lesser commitments than were necessary to secure quite a few other top players. That’s a nice start, but hardly sufficient to stand out from the other three contending teams in this division. Improving the bullpen remains an unfulfilled priority. While the rotation no longer stands out as a problem, it’s susceptible of being bettered. And the position-player mix doesn’t feel quite finished. The Phillies could choose to utilize Adam Haseley in center field and Scott Kingery at third base. But the lineup would look better with a newly installed regular for at least one of those positions, freeing Kingery to function as a super-sub and reducing the team’s reliance upon the still-unproven Haseley. It’s a tough scene in free agency unless the club reimposes itself in the market for Josh Donaldson. Creative trade exploration seems advisable. The Phils also still must figure out what to do with Odubel Herrera, who’ll be returning from a suspension.
Washington Nationals [Offseason Outlook]
Having finally completed a summit attempt, the Nats face new challenges in a repeat bid. Not unlike the Braves and Phillies, the D.C. roster would look much better with Josh Donaldson added in at the hot corner. If they miss on Donaldson, the Nats could be forced into some difficult and high-stakes trade talks. There’s an opening at second base as well — especially if the club intends to utilize the recently re-signed Howie Kendrick at first base, which is partially dependent upon its decision with regard to Ryan Zimmerman — which creates both need and opportunity.
Youngster Carter Kieboom could be cast into a big role, but the organization probably prefers to see him force his way up rather than relying on him out of the gates. It’s possible to imagine the addition of multiple veteran infielders from a large remaining pool, with a plan to mix and match and adapt over the course of the season. Any of the team’s internally developed reserve players could be supplanted over the next few months. Ditto the holdover fifth-starter and middle-relief options. Another rotation piece (if only for camp competition) and one or more relievers (preferably including a legit setup option) also remain on the list of needs for president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo, who’s overseeing a huge amount of roster turnover while trying to recover from a (literal and figurative) championship hangover.
