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Latest On Kurt Suzuki

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5:14 pm: Suzuki will remain on the Nationals’ World Series roster, with Barry Svrluga of The Washington Post describing the catcher as “good to go” (link). Suzuki underwent an MRI earlier today, according to Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington (link).

Oct 25: Not only did the Nationals drop Game 3 of the World Series to the Astros on Friday, but they may have suffered a notable loss behind the plate. Kurt Suzuki departed early with a right hip flexor injury, manager Dave Martinez told Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post and other reporters. It’s not yet clear whether Suzuki will undergo an MRI.

This adds to an injury-laden month and a half for Suzuki, who missed a large portion of September while dealing with elbow issues. Suzuki has returned to serve as the Nationals’ No. 1 catcher for most of their playoff run this month, even though he took a 94 mph Walker Buehler fastball off the wrist and face in Game 5 of the NLDS against the Dodgers.

The physical beating the 36-year-old Suzuki has taken since September may help explain his recent struggles on the offensive side. After hitting a respectable .264/.324/.486 with 17 home runs in 309 regular-season plate appearances, Suzuki has fallen to 3 for 30 in the playoffs. He did homer in the Nats’ Game 2 rout over the Astros, however.

Looking ahead to Game 4, when the Nats will try for a commanding a 3-1 lead, Yan Gomes is likely to catch starter Patrick Corbin even if Suzuki’s hip problem isn’t serious. Gomes has regularly been the club’s choice at catcher when Corbin has taken the mound. As for Suzuki, Washington figures to know more on the severity of his hip troubles Saturday.

The Nationals’ “Bottom-Up” Analytics Strategy

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The Nationals are well known as one of MLB’s organizations still reliant on an old-school, if not yet antiquated scouting infrastructure. Much of this stems from GM Mike Rizzo, a former scout and scouting director himself. They are not, of course, blind to analytics, and as is the case with all front office these days, the way they blend traditional scouting with the use of analytics is what makes the footprint of their front office particular.

Their first-ever analyst hire, in fact, now serves as an assistant general manager. Sam Mondry-Cohen, a former bat boy, is a key figure in deploying the Nats “bottom-up” strategy to analytics, per Tyler Kepner of the New York Times. Mondry-Cohen and Rizzo stress the importance of clubhouse temperament to the utilization of their data, letting their players dictate to a large degree where and how data is utilized. The Nats organizational philosophy is more transparent than ever this season with mood-manager extraordinaire Davey Martinez helming a rambunctious veteran clubhouse that credits their on-field success to baby sharks, dugout dances, and group hugs.

The Nationals also credit themselves for mixing analytics with instinct in deploying a quick-strike offseason strategy that netted key players like Patrick Corbin, Yan Gomes, Brian Dozier and Kurt Suzuki last offseason. Bottomless sieves of data and a competitive landscape rich with intelligent front offices can make decision-making a slog, but the Nationals try not to dwell when instinct can kick-in. It’s served them well, as the Nationals have eight straight winning seasons and a new NL pennant banner to hang.

Once the World Series is finished, it will be interesting to see how this front office values their own free agents. The group includes obvious notables like Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon, but surprise elite contributors like Howie Kendrick and Daniel Hudson also enter the free market, as does the captain of their folk hero superteam: Gerardo Parra.

Nationals Notes: Morton, Anibal, Suzuki, Trades

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After two huge road wins over the Astros in the first two games of the World Series, the Nationals are headed back to Washington in command of the Fall Classic.  Here’s the latest on the NL champs….

  • Charlie Morton in a Nationals jersey?  It could’ve happened last winter, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Washington pursued the veteran righty, and the Nats “believe they were the runners-up” to the Rays for Morton’s services.  The Nationals made a offer similar to the Rays’ two-year, $30MM deal with Morton, though the turning point may have been Tampa’s closer proximity to Morton’s offseason home in Bradenton, Florida.  On paper, it would seem like Morton’s decision paved the way for the Nats to ink Anibal Sanchez to a two-year, $19MM deal, though Sherman writes that the Nationals considered signing both Morton and Sanchez, not to mention their blockbuster signing of Patrick Corbin earlier in the offseason.
  • Speaking of Sanchez, the idea of him starting Game 3 of the World Series would’ve seemed far-fetched two years ago, when the veteran righty’s career seemed to be on thin ice after struggling during the last three seasons of his five-year, $80MM contract with the Tigers.  Since then, however, Sanchez has gotten back on track in a major way, as MLB.com’s Mike Petriello notes that no pitcher has a lower percentage of hard-hit balls over the last two seasons than Sanchez.  Reasons for the turn-around could include Sanchez’s increased prep work between starts, or a change in pitch usage, as the veteran hurler has greatly increased the use of his cutter and mostly abandoned his slider, formerly one of his primary offerings.
  • Sanchez also cited his relationship with catcher Kurt Suzuki as a big factor in his improved performance with both the Braves and Nationals, another example of how Suzuki has himself enjoyed something of a late-career renaissance.  As The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) writes, Suzuki considered retiring following the 2016 season, and was hesitant about leaving his family in California to sign a one-year contract and play across the country with the Braves.  His wife convinced him to take the deal, however, and achieve Suzuki’s goal of ten full seasons of MLB service.  That clock is now running at well over 12 seasons and counting, as Suzuki has enjoyed three of his best seasons at the plate in 2017-19, and is now perhaps closing in on his first World Series ring.
  • Finally winning a championship would be the ultimate payoff to years of aggressive moves from GM Mike Rizzo and the Nationals’ front office, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post writes.  Prospects such as Lucas Giolito, Jesus Luzardo, and Sheldon Neuse were dealt to the White Sox and Athletics in trades that brought the likes of Adam Eaton and Sean Doolittle to Washington, and the Nationals are comfortable seeing their former prospects go on to MLB stardom for other teams.  “It’s difficult to win consistently and have a good farm system because you use your prospect capital to acquire major league players. But that’s been our plan the whole time,” Rizzo said.  It helps that the Nats have been hung onto some prospects (i.e. Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Stephen Strasburg) who have turned into major homegrown stars, while also scoring in other trades that brought other big names like Trea Turner into the organization as youngsters.

Spencer Kieboom Elects Free Agency

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OCT. 24: Kieboom has elected free agency, according to the PCL transactions page.

OCT. 22: The Nationals are preparing for Game 1 of the World Series on Tuesday, but that’s not stopping their front office from handling other business. The club outrighted catcher Spencer Kieboom to Triple-A Fresno on Monday, per the Pacific Coast League transactions page. As someone who has been outrighted previously, Kieboom will have a chance to elect free agency.

Kieboom, the brother of standout Nationals shortstop prospect Carter Kieboom, has been a member of the organization since going in Round 5 of the 2012 draft. Spencer Kieboom was a decently regarded prospect in his own right a few years back, though he hasn’t been able to carve out a consistent big league role thus far.

Kieboom got his only real taste of the majors in 2018, when a patient, low-strikeout approach helped him post a playable on-base percentage. However, a lack of power limited Kieboom to a .232/.322/.320 line over his 143 plate appearances. The 28-year-old didn’t make it back to Washington or even play with Fresno this season, instead spending all of it with Double-A Harrisburg. Kieboom batted just .196/.271/.256 in 188 PA before an elbow injury cut his season short.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Nationals

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The thrilling first game of the World Series just wrapped up with Washington pulling off a 5-4 victory in Houston. If you’re a neutral observer, you may be hoping for six more games just like that one. However long the series lasts, though, both teams stand to see some key contributors reach the open market thereafter. Let’s start with a review of the Nationals’ pending free agents…

Anthony Rendon, 3B:

  • I’m not going to tell you anything you don’t already know in regards to Rendon. The 29-year-old is coming off yet another world-class season, perhaps an MVP-level campaign, and is finally getting the national recognition his play has long warranted. As hands down the premier soon-to-be free-agent position player, Rendon has a strong case for a guarantee worth $225MM or more.

Brian Dozier, 2B:

  • Dozier was an elite second baseman with the Twins for a few years leading up to 2018, but he hasn’t been the same player dating back to then. After a down season divided between the Twins and Dodgers, the Nationals signed Dozier to a one-year, $9MM contract last winter. Dozier enjoyed somewhat of a bounce-back regular season, hitting .238/.340/.430 with 20 home runs and 1.7 fWAR in 482 plate appearances. That’s still not great production, though, and odds are the 32-year-old will have to settle for another single-season guarantee (very likely for less money) in his next trip to free agency.

Howie Kendrick, 1B/2B/3B:

  • As with Dozier, Kendrick’s likely heading for a one-year deal. However, in Kendrick’s case, that has far more to do with age than performance. After all, the long-solid Kendrick, 36, has been an offensive machine all season. Kendrick slashed a jaw-dropping .344/.395/.572 with 17 homers in 370 PA during the regular campaign, when Statcast more than backed up his bottom-line output. Just four qualified hitters (some names you may recognize in Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich and Nelson Cruz) outdid Kendrick’s .418 expected weighted on-base average. Kendrick has further cemented himself in Washington lore with a productive postseason, with his decisive grand slam in Game 5 of the team’s NLDS victory over the Dodgers sure to count among the franchise’s greatest moments for decades to come.

Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/3B:

  • The 33-year-old Cabrera has been an outstanding in-season pickup for Washington, which grabbed him off the scrapheap after Texas released him in early August. Cabrera was only a .235/.318/.393 hitter at that point, but he slashed an excellent .323/.404/.565 in 146 regular-season PA after donning a Nats uniform. Cabrera’s D.C. production should be enough to earn him another guaranteed deal in the offseason.

Gerardo Parra, OF:

  • It’s hard to believe, but Parra has turned into a folk hero in Washington since the club brought him on a low-cost deal toward the beginning of May. At that point, Parra was the owner of a paltry .546 OPS and someone the Giants understandably jettisoned despite obvious needs in their outfield. Not only has Parra hit a much-improved .250/.300/.447 in 204 trips to the plate since then, but his “Baby Shark” intro has helped make him a fan and clubhouse favorite. It doesn’t look as if Parra would be a bad investment on what’s sure to be another low-paying deal.

Daniel Hudson, RP:

  • The hard-throwing Hudson didn’t appear to be an exciting addition for the Nationals when they acquired him from the Blue Jays at the July trade deadline, but he has since established himself an indispensable part of their bullpen. Hudson pitched to a 1.44 ERA (with a 3.53 FIP) and totaled 23 strikeouts against two walks in 25 regular-season innings as a Nat. The brilliance has largely continued in the postseason for the 32-year-old, who has thrown seven frames of one-earned run ball and converted all four of his save chances. Hudson had to settle for a $1.5MM contract with the Jays right before the season started, but he should do far better next time. A two-year deal in the $10MM range could be in the offing this winter.

Jeremy Hellickson, RHP:

  • Hellickson was a quality member of the Nationals’ pitching staff in 2018, which led the club to bring back the former AL Rookie of the Year on a $1.3MM guarantee last winter. At that price, it was a gamble worth taking for the Nationals, but it didn’t work out. The 32-year-old Hellickson struggled into May before missing the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Assuming Hellickson signs somewhere in the offseason, he’ll be getting a minor league pact.

Fernando Rodney, RP:

  • This season has been a wild ride for the 42-year-old Rodney, who bombed with the Athletics in the early going, got his release in late May, signed a minors deal with the Nats a week later and is now part of a World Series roster. The nomadic arrow slinger tossed 33 1/3 regular-season innings of 4.05 ERA/3.72 FIP ball and posted 9.5 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9 after the Nationals brought him up in late June. Rodney has added 2 2/3 scoreless frames during the playoffs. Will that be enough for Rodney to pick up a major league deal over the winter? Perhaps, but he’s obviously not going to break the bank.

Jonny Venters, RP:

  • Venters, who has seemingly overcome one awful injury after another during his career, will have to do so yet again. No stranger to the operating table, Venters underwent yet another serious procedure (on a torn capsule in his left shoulder) in August. The 34-year-old’s career could conceivably be over, though he’ll try to get off the mat one more time.

Nationals Announce World Series Roster

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The Nationals face a tall order over the final series of the season, as they’ll run into the powerhouse Astros in this year’s World Series. To an extent, it feels like the Nats are playing with house money after the brutal start to the season. But this team has been knocking on the door for years and doesn’t want to waste its opportunity to cash in fully with its own star-laden roster.

Here are the 25 players who’ll appear in uniform for the D.C. organization:

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Catchers

The Nats have tweaked their pitching staff several times throughout the postseason, but haven’t yet added to the number of arms they’re carrying. It’ll again be eleven pitchers for the Washington club, with hopes that the team won’t need to rely much at all upon several of them.

Southpaw Roenis Elias moves off the roster after being added for the NLCS. Presumably, the team decided the extra lefty wasn’t needed for the lefty-leaning Astros, though having the additional match-up option might have been nice. Right-handed reliever Wander Suero takes his place. It’s notable that Suero has had success against both right and left-handed hitters, though his bottom-line results this year didn’t quite match up to his promising peripherals and the club hasn’t trusted him with a postseason appearance since a rough showing against the Dodgers.

Like Elias, Hunter Strickland was acquired at the deadline in hopes he’d contribute. But the righty is again off the roster after a rough NLDS showing. That leaves Hudson as the lone mid-season trade piece who’s contributing; his good work has been pivotal. The Nats are also still carrying Cabrera, who was signed just after the trade deadline and played a big role down the stretch. He has not been utilized much in the postseason, but could see added opportunites with Kendrick expected to DH for games in which that slot is available.

Meanwhile, the Nats have made a somewhat unexpected move with their long man role. Austin Voth is off the roster; he had been a potential long man but wasn’t needed in the NLCS. He’ll be replaced by Ross, who is a candidate for similar duty. Ross has also been tasked with pinch running at times in the past and might also be used in that capacity.

 

Pitchers Recently Electing Free Agency

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Since the conclusion of the regular season, a number of players have elected free agency. That right accrues to certain players who are outrighted off of a 40-man roster during or after the season — namely, those that have at least three years of MLB service and/or have previously been outrighted. Such players that accepted outright assignments during the season have the right to elect free agency instead at season’s end, provided they aren’t added back to the 40-man in the meantime.

We already rounded up the position players. Now, here are the pitchers that have recently taken to the open market, along with their now-former teams (via the International League and PCL transactions pages):

World Series Roster Notes

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World Series media day gave us a bit of a look behind the curtain at the planning that is going into the early portion of this year’s series. We still don’t have full and final 25-man rosters for the Astros and Nationals, but their respective managers did discuss a few major tactical decisions that have already been made. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com and Jake Kaplan of The Athletic were among those to cover the festivities; all links below are to their Twitter feeds.

  • There aren’t any surprises in terms of the initial pitching plans. The Nationals will roll out a rested Max Scherzer for the first game tomorrow night. As a prize for eliminating the Yankees in six games, rather than taking it to a seventh, the Astros will be able to counter with their top option in Gerrit Cole. The second match-up of the series will be just as compelling, with the Nats starting Stephen Strasburg and the ’Stros going with Justin Verlander.
  • After that? You might presume that each team will turn to its third starter — in each case, a hurler that would feature as an ace on quite a few other staffs around the game. Houston manager A.J. Hinch committed to utilizing mid-season trade acquisition Zack Greinke to open game three. But D.C. skipper Davey Martinez says he’s not going to name a starter yet for the first contest back in the nation’s capital. Does that mean that southpaw Patrick Corbin might be utilized in relief in Houston, as he has on several occasions already in the postseason? Martinez said we’ll just have to wait and see how things unfold.
  • It remains to be seen whether either team will end up utilizing a fourth starter to open any contests. The Nats can perhaps have some added confidence in Anibal Sanchez after watching him nearly no-hit the Cardinals in the NLCS, though tip-toeing through an exceptionally potent Astros lineup would be another thing entirely for the wily veteran. It’ll also be a wait-and-see situation for the Houston organization, with Hinch saying Brad Peacock, Jose Urquidy, or some other pitcher could be tapped to open a game that will likely feature quite a few pitching changes.
  • The availability of a designated hitter slot will open some opportunities for the Nats in games one and two. The club is planning to place veteran Howie Kendrick in the bat-only slot, Martinez suggested. Kendrick has stung the ball all year long and thrived in big situations in October, but he has also hurt the Nationals with the glove at times. Meanwhile, Hinch says the Astros will be sticking with young slugger Yordan Alvarez — at least for the first two contests. Whether or not he’ll be installed in left field once the series moves to D.C. could depend upon who’s starting game three — and whether Alvarez can break out of the 1-for-24, 12-strikeout skid he left in the championship series.
  • In terms of a formal roster announcement, that isn’t yet available. The Astros, in particular, are waiting until the last possible moment. The club believes that excellent reliever Ryan Pressly will be good to go after dealing with a knee injury in the ALCS. But it’ll hold off on making the final call until checking on his condition tomorrow. Both teams figure to rely heavily upon their core players throughout the series. Each could go in a variety of directions with a few of the final roster spots — those players that may not end up being used much at all, but could end up being thrust into major roles at key junctures.

Diamondbacks Notes: Ex-Dbacks, Rizzo, Offense, Marte

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The Diamondbacks surprisingly hung around the Wild Card race until mid-September this season, despite shedding the faces of their franchise over the course of the six months previous. The postseason has been a who’s who of important Dbacks of the last half decade, as Patrick Corbin has taken out the rest of the Dbacks former talent core, starting with A.J. Pollock and the Dodgers and Paul Goldschmidt and the Cardinals. He’ll take his best shot at Zack Greinke and the Astros in game 3 of the World Series, aka the former Dbacks ace bowl. Of course, Mike Rizzo, the Nationals GM, is also an ex-Diamondback. He served as Arizona’s Scouting Director from 2000 to 2006. Let’s take a look at some Diamondbacks news from Rizzo’s era up to the present day…

  • It’s unsurprising to realize Rizzo repurposed the team-building blueprint from the 2001 Diamondbacks champs in putting together his team in Washington, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Mainly, that means two aces up front and a host of veteran hitters capable of putting together veteran at-bats. All in all, it’s a pretty uncannily accurate casting job on the part of Rizzo. Max Scherzer is Randy Johnson, Stephen Strasburg is Curt Schilling, Patrick Corbin is an evolved Brian Anderson, Anibal Sanchez is Miguel Batista. Many of the vets also fit the mold: Howie Kendrick can play Mark Grace, Gerardo Parra as David Dellucci or Danny Bautista, Ryan Zimmerman as Matt Williams, Asdrubal Cabrera as Jay Bell, Adam Eaton as Reggie Sanders, Matt Adams as Greg Colbrunn and Kurt Suzuki is Damian Miller. In the bullpen, Fernando Rodney is definitely Mike Morgan, Sean Doolittle is Matt Mantei (I guess?), Daniel Hudson is (gulp) Byung-Hyun Kim. Okay, perhaps it’s not 1-1 all the way through, but those Diamondbacks did win the World Series after a 92-win season – after a 93-win season in Washington, Rizzo hopes to replicate his old team one last time.
  • Despite two recent aces facing off for different teams in the World Series, the Diamondbacks offseason focus is the offense, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The Dbacks put together a middle-of-the-pack offense in 2019, but the bats went away in an 11-game stretch in mid-September. They went 3-8 and pretty much fell out of race while scoring less than 2 1/2 runs per game. Those are the games that stick out for GM Mike Hazen, who will be on the lookout for ways to diversify their offense. Parsing the profile of the type of hitter Hazen may target is more difficult, as Arizona’s offense didn’t really stand out in any which way. They finished below-average in home runs, but not by a lot, above-average in men left on base and GIDP, but again, not by much. They were exactly league-average in batting average and on-base percentage, while their team slugging (.434 SLG) was below average by .001 SLG – as close to average as any team in the MLB.
  • As far as Ketel Marte is concerned, the Dbacks aren’t making a decision about his 2020 defensive home until they build out the rest of the roster. Second base could be where they look to improve offensively, in which case Marte will head back out to center. Essentially, the plan remains the same, with Hazen and the Dbacks set to take full advantage of the versatility Marte affords.

Stephen Strasburg Opt-Out Could Leverage Nats Into Extension

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  • After Cole, Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals would be the most talented arm on the market. There’s a feeling within the industry, however, that he won’t get there, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Strasburg, remember, was the rare Scott Boras client to sign an early extension, and it could be that Boras will leverage Strasburg’s opt-out into a longer deal with the Nationals. For his part, Strasburg has shown no inclination to test foreign waters, and tacking a couple years and a couple million dollars to the 4 years, $100MM already owed him after 2019 certainly could be enough to keep him in DC. After his current playoff run, it’s hard to imagine Stras pitching in another uniform. Still, if the window opens, there are sure to be suitors come to call. 
  • There’s no telling how much the free agency of the above-noted hurlers could change the shape of the league. Look no further than this week’s World Series for evidence. The Astros and Nationals will face off starting tomorrow with rosters built around “imported” pitching, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis. The Astros brought in Cole, Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke via trade, whereas the Nationals signed Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, and Anibal Sanchez in free agency. Whichever team wins four of the next seven games will add to a recent history of champions built around homegrown offense and supplemented pitching. The Cubs in 2016, Astros in 2017, and Red Sox in 2018 all boasted homegrown cores of position players and hired guns on the hill.
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