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Nationals Notes: Castro, Franco, Bryant

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In terms of bigger-ticket additions at third base, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter link) reports that the Nationals have yet to touch base with the Cubs about Bryant, contrary to earlier reports.  This isn’t to say that the Nats couldn’t still look into Bryant should Donaldson sign with another team.

The star third baseman just turned 34 this week and, since his injury-plagued 2018 season already cost him his first chance at a big multi-year free agent deal last winter, it isn’t surprising that Donaldson wants to max out his payday now that he is coming off an outstanding 2019 campaign.  Rosenthal hears that “all things being equal, Donaldson’s preference is to return to the Braves,” though if it comes down to a pure bidding war, Atlanta doesn’t seem to have the available payroll to outspend Donaldson suitors like the Dodgers, Rangers, Twins, or Nationals.

Speaking of fallback options for Donaldson, Rosenthal writes that Starlin Castro and Maikel Franco are on the Nationals’ radar as third base candidates.  Washington has gotten long looks at both players from their days in the NL East, though both Castro and Franco would certainly be stopgap options at best given their underwhelming performances over the last few seasons.  Castro has been a slightly below-average run producer (98 OPS+ and wRC+) since the start of the 2016 campaign, while Franco hasn’t lived up his billing as one of baseball’s top prospects, hitting only .249/.302/.431 over 2539 career PA with the Phillies.

In terms of bigger-ticket additions at third base, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter link) reports that the Nationals have yet to touch base with the Cubs about Bryant, contrary to earlier reports.  This isn’t to say that the Nats couldn’t still look into Bryant should Donaldson sign with another team.

Dodgers “Pessimistic” On Rendon, Still Talking Lindor With Indians

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2:31pm: While the likelihood of an arrangement isn’t known, the Dodgers are engaged in “serious” and ongoing talks with the Indians regarding star shortstop Francisco Lindor, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The report suggests that the Cleveland organization wants a prospect package that includes top talents Gavin Lux and Dustin May, each of whom reached the majors late last year. Whether the demand is for both to be included isn’t entirely clear.

2:00pm: The Dodgers are increasingly “pessimistic” as to their chances of striking a deal with top remaining free agent Anthony Rendon, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The L.A. org just missed out on Gerrit Cole and could now see its other major target slip away.

What’s the mean for the market on Rendon? Rosenthal reiterates several other recent reports indicating that the Nationals are unlikely to bring back their star third bagger. The Rangers and Angels appear to be the leading contenders to secure the services of the smooth-swinging 29-year-old.

As for the Dodgers, if indeed they fall out of the Rendon bidding they’ll presumably keep moving down the line of options. The club is said to have interest in Josh Donaldson, Madison Bumgarner, and several other possible free agent and trade targets.

Nationals Announce Howie Kendrick, Yan Gomes Deals

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The Nationals’ previously reported deals with infielder Howie Kendrick and catcher Yan Gomes are now official, the team announced.

Kendrick will earn $4MM in 2020 with a mutual option for $6.5MM or a $2.25MM buyout for 2021, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. At the moment, the 36-year-old is penciled in as Washington’s starting first baseman for 2020 after a year in which he was nothing short of spectacular during the regular season and the playoffs.

The long-solid Kendrick slashed an eye-popping .344/.395/.572 and swatted 17 home runs in 370 plate appearances during the regular campaign, in which he was a Statcast darling, before coming up with more than one enormously important hit in a postseason that ended with the Nationals’ first-ever World Series championship. He’s etched in Nationals lore for his grand slam against the Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLDS and his go-ahead home run in Game 7 of the World Series in Houston.

Gomes wasn’t anywhere near as successful as Kendrick in 2019, but the Nats nonetheless brought him back to again pair with fellow veteran Kurt Suzuki behind the plate. The 32-year-old Gomes will rake in $4MM next season and $6MM in 2021 on the two-year, $10MM pact he landed, per Nightengale.

Nationals “Ready To Pivot” To Josh Donaldson

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The Nationals are “ready to pivot” to Josh Donaldson as an alternative at third base, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. It’s a longstanding connection, but the circumstances have shifted of late.

If this report is read most expansively, it might suggest that the Nats have all but given up their pursuit of Anthony Rendon, the superstar they drafted and helped to develop into one of the game’s best players. But the organization has been unwilling to rule out that possibility in the wake of the re-signing of Stephen Strasburg.

At minimum, it sounds as if the Nationals believe they’re likely to need a replacement for Rendon as he continues to draw suitors. That’s an awfully tall order, but the club certainly isn’t lowering its standards with its reported targets to date. In addition to considering Donaldson, the Nats are also said to have checked in on the trade availability of Kris Bryant.

If indeed the Nats do make a full-court press for Donaldson, they’ll need to stand out among several other contenders for his services. The division-rival Braves and Phillies are among them, along with the Dodgers, Rangers, and perhaps others. With loads of market appetite and a relative dearth of alternatives, particularly now that Mike Moustakas has signed with the Reds as a second baseman, Donaldson is seen as increasingly likely to command a four-year deal.

The Nationals have proven time and again that they’ll pay top dollar for free agents. In addition to the deals they got done, the club heavily pursued players such as Jason Heyward and Yoenis Cespedes. Whether they’ll come away with Donaldson can’t be known at the moment, but dedicated involvement from the D.C. organization is unquestionably a boon to his earning power.

Latest On Kris Bryant

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The Cubs have reportedly been in fervent pursuit of trade possibilities, exploring deals involving much of their roster — including Kris Bryant. There are some wrinkles to structuring a deal for the superstar third baseman, as well as some new market developments of note. In particular, the Nationals have approached the Cubs to discuss Bryant, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com.

The Cubs are still awaiting resolution on a service-time grievance filed by Bryant and his representatives, despite the fact that a hearing was held in late October.  Speaking to The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and other reporters at the Winter Meetings, Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said he felt the ruling is “not going to be more than a couple weeks away,” though he admitted some frustration that the matter has yet to be decided.

That said, Epstein stated the team is “operating with what our understanding of what the likely outcome will be and moving forward that way,” which would hint that the Cubs are confident that Bryant will remain under team control through the 2021 season.  A ruling in the other direction, which would grant Bryant free agency after the 2020 season, would certainly count as a surprise, and one with a major impact on Chicago’s future roster maneuverings.

Needless to say, the length of Bryant’s remaining service time would have a giant impact on what the Wrigleyville side would receive back in a trade, though the third base market joins the delayed grievance ruling as the biggest factors in any trade plans the Cubs might have for Bryant.  Sharma notes that the Cubs are figuring that teams who miss out on Anthony Rendon or Josh Donaldson could come calling about Bryant, which would leave Chicago discussing Bryant with at least three of such teams as the Dodgers, Braves, Rangers, Phillies, and Nationals.  Of that group, the Cubs would most likely be interested in the prospect-deep Atlanta or Los Angeles farm systems. Sharma also wonders if Chicago could also shop Bryant to the Padres (another club with a stacked farm system) as an outfielder, since San Diego is set at the corner infield spots with Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer.

In terms of specific potential landing spots, it seems we’re mostly dealing with informed speculation and hypotheticals. But we’re also beginning to see indications of actual trade talks.  The Nationals’ reported expression of interest is certainly intriguing, though it may be difficult for the D.C. organization to structure a deal. The club is not ruling out a return from Rendon and has also shown interest in Donaldson. But adding another monster deal to bring back Rendon would be tough to do. And Donaldson is said to be heading for a fourth guaranteed year with widespread interest. Under the circumstances, the Nats are surely not the only team to have made contact regarding Bryant. Jon Heyman of MLB Network noted yesterday on Twitter that the Braves and Phillies “could be a fit,” though it’s not clear whether that suggestive phrasing was indicative of dialogue between the organizations.

Nationals Notes: Rendon, Rizzo, Boras, Martinez

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Now that Stephen Strasburg has been re-signed to an expectations-shattering $245MM contract, it doesn’t seem like the Nationals could manage another mega-deal to bring back Anthony Rendon…or could they?  Both Nats GM Mike Rizzo and agent Scott Boras (who represents both Rendon and Strasburg) told MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman and other reporters that the third baseman could still potentially return to Washington, despite owner Mark Lerner’s recent comments about his club not being able to afford both free agents.  “Well, when you look at those comments, and then you look at the structure of this particular deal and the structure of deals we’ve had getting up to where we are right now, I think that Mark realizes that there’s ways to fit players in,” Rizzo said, in reference to the deferral-heavy nature of both Strasburg’s contract and several other major Nats contracts in recent years.

  • Not that a World Series-winning manager should necessarily be worried about job security, but Dave Martinez tells NBC Sports Washington’s Todd Dybas that he isn’t concerned about entering the final guaranteed year of his contract.  The Nationals hold a club option on Martinez for the 2021 season, though just making through 2020 would make Martinez (somewhat incredibly) the first person to manage three full seasons for the Nats since the club moved from Montreal prior to the 2005 season.  Martinez didn’t give any indication of extension talks, though even with the Nationals’ unusual history of managerial hirings and firings, it looks like stability might have finally come to the dugout.

Now that Stephen Strasburg has been re-signed to an expectations-shattering $245MM contract, it doesn’t seem like the Nationals could manage another mega-deal to bring back Anthony Rendon…or could they?  Both Nats GM Mike Rizzo and agent Scott Boras (who represents both Rendon and Strasburg) told MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman and other reporters that the third baseman could still potentially return to Washington, despite owner Mark Lerner’s recent comments about his club not being able to afford both free agents.  “Well, when you look at those comments, and then you look at the structure of this particular deal and the structure of deals we’ve had getting up to where we are right now, I think that Mark realizes that there’s ways to fit players in,” Rizzo said, in reference to the deferral-heavy nature of both Strasburg’s contract and several other major Nats contracts in recent years.

Boras also spoke of how Strasburg “directed me to negotiate and create a value, a fair-market value for him, but also a structure that allowed the team to continue at a championship level.”  Naturally, it wouldn’t be good business for Boras to create any impression that a wealthy suitor had dropped out of the running for Rendon, though the fact that he has had such a long history of negotiating deals with the Nationals perhaps gives his comments some added weight.  “I think when you go to do these contracts — in fairness to Mark and everyone else — is you really don’t know what can be done inside a contract to create opportunities so that aspects of the team can be looked at a little differently than was even anticipated,” Boras said.

Nationals Re-Sign Javy Guerra To Minors Deal

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The Nationals have re-signed right-hander reliever Javy Guerra to a minor league contract, Evan Drellich of The Athletic tweets. If Guerra makes it to the majors, he’ll earn a $1MM salary with a chance at $500K in performance bonuses.

The 34-year-old Guerra first joined the Nationals off waivers from the Blue Jays in May. At that point, the Nationals looked like one of the majors’ biggest letdowns, thanks in part to a floundering bullpen. On May 22, the day they added Guerra, the Nationals fell to a woeful 19-30. Of course, they began steamrolling the rest of baseball shortly thereafter and went on to win their first-ever World Series title in the fall.

Guerra played a bit of a role for the Nationals in their Fall Classic win over Houston, as he appeared in two blowouts (one win, one loss) and combined for three innings of one-run ball. Before that, Guerra totaled 53 2/3 frames with a 4.86 ERA out of the Nationals’ bullpen in the regular season. Between Washington and Toronto, Guerra amassed 67 2/3 innings and put up a 4.66 ERA/4.25 FIP with 7.58 K/9 and 2.26 BB/9.

The Nats non-tendered Guerra last week in lieu of paying him a projected $1.3MM salary in 2020. However, he’s quickly back with the organization and will try to earn a spot in its bullpen again next season.

Nationals Agree To Re-Sign Stephen Strasburg

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4:02pm: The Nationals have announced the agreement. The deal also comes with incentives, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. Strasburg will earn $500K for an MVP win, $250K for a second-place finish, $350K for third, $100K for fourth and $75K for fifth. His Cy Young incentives are the same. He’d take home $250K for another World Series MVP. An All-Star appearance, a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger are each worth another $100K apiece.

1:48pm: The defending World Series champs and the game’s biggest agent have kicked off the Winter Meetings with a bang. The Nationals have reached agreement on a new contract with star righty Stephen Strasburg, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. It’s a stunning seven-year deal that guarantees the Scott Boras client a whopping $245MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The sides will announce the deal this afternoon.

If there was ever any doubt as to the stability of the relationship between the Nats and the player once hailed as a franchise savior, this contract resolves it.  There’s a full no-trade clause, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets. The contract does not come with options or opt-outs, per Tim Brown of Yahoo (via Twitter). About $80MM of the money is deferred, Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds on Twitter, but they will include interest, per Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal (Twitter link).

We had come to expect a record-setting pitching deal this winter, but not from Strasburg. Top-of-the-market ace Gerrit Cole had long figured to top David Price for the biggest-ever rotation contract. He’s certain still to do so … quite likely by far, far more than had been anticipated. Strasburg has now blown the prior $217MM record out of the water. It also tops the average-annual value record held previously by Zack Greinke.

Way back when the 2019 season began, it was highly questionable whether Strasburg would even opt out of the four years and $100MM left on his prior extension with the Nationals. The former top overall draft choice ended up turning in a huge regular season followed by an iconic postseason, leading the Nats to a long-awaited World Series berth. It was everything that he and the organization dreamed of when he was selected first overall back in 2009 and then made a stirring debut in 2010. That he navigated a devastating Tommy John surgery, shutdown controversy, and various travails thereafter only made it all the more meaningful.

It has been a rollercoaster for the Nats faithful, which watched Bryce Harper head to the rival Phillies last winter. Strasburg is back … but what about Anthony Rendon, who was the third consecutive first-round pick that president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo knocked out of the park. Ownership has said it doesn’t believe it can sign both Strasburg and Rendon. While that claim is worth questioning, it’s also quite a bit more understandable now that we know just how much the club had to pay to retain the former.

We’ll have to wait and see whether the Nats continue to pursue Rendon. But there’s an obvious impact on his market, which includes quite a few other major bidders. It’s also not difficult to see the connections between Strasburg’s signing and the still-developing rotation market. Pressure soared on the pitching market and the NL East arms race when the Phillies inked Zack Wheeler to a $118MM pact, snatching him from the Mets. With multiple teams pushing for Cole, and some viewing Strasburg as a major fallback target, the Nats acted decisively to bring back their ace. Having now secured larger-than-expected early strikes for Strasburg and Mike Moustakas, Boras can turn to ratcheting up the bidding on Cole, Rendon, and his other major open-market clients.

It’s quite something to see a contract of this magnitude for a 31-year-old pitcher just one winter removed from a spate of high-end hurlers inked extensions. Two aces in a similar age bracket — Jacob deGrom and Chris Sale — received much more modest guarantees. Those pitchers were obviously protecting against the risks of pitching in the majors, but they were also surely cognizant of a frigid free agent market. Now, it seems the thaw may be on … though how far it will extend remains to be seen.

To be sure, Strasburg not only ensconced himself in Nats lore but reaffirmed his top-shelf status in 2019. He topped two hundred innings for the second time in his career and worked to a 3.32 ERA that may actually have belied the true quality of his effort. With 10.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and a 51.1% groundball rate, he showed all the skills that help a pitcher generate outs. Strasburg graded at a 3.25 FIP, 3.17 xFIP, and 3.49 SIERA in 2019. His 13.4% swinging-strike rate was a career high, though he’s now averaging about two ticks less on his fastball than he did for much of his career. And he showed yet more in a blistering run through the postseason, when he allowed just eight earned runs with a ridiculous 47:4 K/BB ratio over 36 1/3 innings, topping it all off with a World Series MVP.

The risks are equally obvious. Though he has avoided another devastating arm injury, Strasburg averaged 145 innings annually between 2015-18 and has had arm scares throughout that time. (He also carried a 3.27 ERA in that span.) He’s now under contract through his age-37 campaign.

While the Nats are obviously pleased with the output they’ve received to this point, having now twice inked Strasburg to massive contracts, they’re still banking on quite a bit more in the second half of his career. The club has now expanded its already huge commitment to its trio of high-end starters, with Strasburg now topping the big salaries promised to Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin. Washington’s 2020 prospects will be determined in no small part by the way in which these hurlers bounce back from a Herculean postseason effort.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nationals “Making Progress” In Talks With Stephen Strasburg

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The Nationals are “making progress” in their contract negotiations with star righty Stephen Strasburg, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). We’ve heard persistent indication that the team anticipates bringing back the veteran righty, who opted out of his contract at the outset of the offseason.

More to come …

Winter Meetings Preview: Nationals’ Trade Chips

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The World Champion Washington Nationals are waiting with the rest of us for the major free agent dominoes to fall, but in the meantime, there’s work to do. One such task might be finding trade partners for any number of current Nationals who are out of minor league options. Michael A. Taylor, Wilmer Difo, Adrian Sanchez, Raudy Read, Erick Fedde, Joe Ross, and Austin Voth are all potential trade candidates, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman.

The players listed above can no longer be shuttled back and forth between the minor leagues without being exposed to waivers – they either make the Opening Day roster, get traded elsewhere, or the Nats will risk losing them for nothing through the waiver claim process. Granted, this isn’t exactly Anthony Rendon or Stephen Strasburg. Washington can take their chances and not be overexposed. But if there’s value to return, GM Mike Rizzo might do well to look for it this week in San Diego.

On the position player side, there’s not much to offer. Taylor has become somewhat of a folklore “postseason specialist,” and there’s room for him on the roster as a fourth outfielder. But he’ll turn 29 in March, and his bygone ceiling as a second division starter has been replaced with legitimate questions about whether he carries enough bat to make the 26-man roster. He’s somewhat inexplicably beloved by a large contingent of fans in the DMV, but the Nationals may very well explore finding another option as insurance should Juan Soto, Victor Robles, and Adam Eaton not prove as healthy as they were in 2019. Taylor is a capable defender and baserunner, but he’s also due over $3MM, carries a career .240/.294/.393 batting line across over 1700 big league plate appearances, and he’s coming off a season spent almost entirely in Double-A (though for Washington, Double-A served as a holding grounds for potential call-ups, since their Triple-A team was located across the country in Fresno).

Difo is of a similar mold, but in the infield and without the postseason heroics. Neither Difo nor Sanchez are likely to bring back anything via trade, nor should they really be relied upon by the Nats. Difo will turn 28 this year, Sanchez 30, and there’s just not much upside to mine. Read is a 26-year-old catcher with pop who is out of options despite only 22 big league plate appearances. His power numbers in Triple-A last year (.546 SLG) are enough to crane a neck or two, and the Nats are probably fine with Tres Barrera serving as their emergency third catcher.

Where this gets interesting is with the trio of pitchers who rotated in and out of the Nats’ fifth starter spot. Fedde, Ross, and Voth all experienced some degree of success in 2019, though not one is a sure thing to make the roster.

Ross’ overall numbers (5.48 ERA/4.59 FIP) are ugly, but they’re largely attributable to a horrid run in the bullpen. As a starter in the second half, Ross went 4-2 with a 3.02 ERA, showing signs of finally returning to the mid-rotation form he flashed as a younger player. Though high heat is in vogue, Ross hit his stride when his sinker became a primary offering as it had been before injuries derailed his career. Call me crazy – and this brand of breakout is hardly normative enough to form an archetype – but there’s hints of Jake Arrieta here. Ross is just two years from free agency, and even his second half performance is probably more than should be expected moving forward – but after a 1.05 ERA across five starts in August, Ross certainly became a guy a front office can dream on.

There was a time when those within the Nats’ organization were aligned on Voth as nothing more than organizational filler, and he was the last guy on the Nats’ 40-man roster to get a look in the show last year, but he added a couple ticks to his fastball and pitched to a 3.30 ERA/3.70 FIP across 43 2/3 inning worth 1.2 bWAR. Should Strasburg return to Washington, Voth and Ross are probably dueling for the fifth starter spot. It’s also hard to imagine the Nats defending their title with both in the rotation even if Strasburg departs. Still, given the strides shown by Ross and Voth last season, it’s not inconceivable.

Fedde could be the odd man out, but there’s enough of a pedigree to at least explore his value on the trade market. The 26-year-old right-hander was a top-4 Nationals prospect by Baseball America from 2014 to 2017, topping out as the #82 prospect in baseball following the 2015 season. He’s a former first round pick with a Tommy John surgery already in the rearview. The results the last few seasons have been mixed (4.50 ERA in 2019), but there’s no major trauma, and speculatively speaking, he’d be a good fit every fifth day for a younger team like the Blue Jays or Orioles.

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