Nationals Rumors

NL Notes: Donaldson, Braves, Mets, Arenado, Hernandez

By Dylan A. Chase | December 21, 2019 at 10:30pm CDT

A fourth guaranteed year has been said to be the lynchpin in any potential deal for third baseman Josh Donaldson this winter, leaving interested teams in a precarious spot as they play chicken with the veteran’s representatives. The Braves, in particular, could be in something of a no-mans-land if they miss out on Donaldson, as they would lose their incumbent starter and potentially see a league rival (Nationals, Dodgers) strengthen their lineup at the same time. As David O’Brien of The Athletic sees it, the team’s two recourses in the event of a Donaldson departure may be the exploration of trades for either Kris Bryant of the Cubs or Nolan Arenado of the Rockies—and neither of those options is entirely realistic in the writer’s eyes. For Bryant, his ongoing grievance with the Cubs adds a fair bit of uncertainty for any interested trade partner. While the Cubs are, as O’Brien puts it, “widely expected” to win that grievance hearing and maintain two years of control on Bryant, it’s not impossible that the tide could swing in Bryant’s favor and leave him with just one year left.

When it comes to Arenado, O’Brien seems merely skeptical that Atlanta would be willing to swallow a contract of that magnitude, considering that the $35MM annual salaries in Arenado’s deal would more than double the highest salary that Braves star Ronald Acuna will make in the final years of the eight-year, $100MM extension he signed in April. Then again, Donaldson has reportedly given the Braves the right of last refusal on any potential deal, so it may well be that Atlanta ends up viewing a four-year Donaldson deal as the most reasonable course of action. Given that Washington and Minnesota have reportedly made four-year offers already, this may be a case of a player waiting for his preferred team to blink.

Brandon Kintzler Drawing “Plenty Of Interest”

By TC Zencka | December 21, 2019 at 8:08am CDT

Brandon Kintzler credits a bounce-back campaign in 2019 to working with Tommy Hottovy to simplify his mechanics during Spring Training, he said on MLB Network Radio (audio link). After a strong season with the Cubs, Kintzler is drawing “plenty of interest” on the free agent market.

Kintzler, 35, worked through one of the worst campaigns of his career in 2018, especially struggling after coming to Chicago from the Nationals in a mid-season trade. He was knocked around for a 7.00 ERA across those 25 appearances in a Cubs’ uniform, giving up 13.5 H/9 and walking an unusually high 4.5 batters per nine innings.

The sinkerballer turned in around in 2019, however, becoming one of the Cubs most reliable relievers across 62 appearances (57 innings). He put up a career-high 1.7 bWAR and career-low 2.84 ERA, though a 3.56 FIP puts his turnaround closer to career norms enjoyed throughout previous tenures with the Brewers, Twins and Nationals.

Kintzler was particularly tough on lefties in 2019, holding them to a .163/.247/.275 line. Career splits paint Kintzler as more of an equal opportunist, though he’s done a nice job of limiting left-handed power throughout his career. The changeup is key against opposite-hand hitters, a pitch he went away from during his struggles in 2018. With simpler, repeatable mechanics in 2019, his feel for the pitch returned, and with it returned his effectiveness.

Nationals, Twins Reported To Be Most Aggressive On Josh Donaldson

By Jeff Todd | December 19, 2019 at 10:29pm CDT

DEC. 19: It’s “believed” the Nationals and Twins are willing to go to four years for Donaldson, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). The Dodgers and Braves are still in the hunt, per Rosenthal, though he notes both teams could be hesitant to go to the four-year length to land Donaldson.

DEC. 16: Ever since they watched star third baseman Anthony Rendon depart, the Nationals have been rumored to be pressing hard for Josh Donaldson as a replacement. The club’s willingness to spend appears to be driving the market for Donaldson, an older but still outstanding player in his own right.

Whether or not there’s a formal offer on the table isn’t known. But the Nats are “aggressive” in their pursuit of Donaldson, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Indeed, the team is prepared to bid upwards of $90MM on a four-year term, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

MLBTR had predicted a $25MM average annual value for Donaldson, but anticipated he would only be able to secure that over a three-year guarantee. All indications are that Donaldson will have lengthier offers to consider, though it remains to be seen whether he will get to nine-figure territory.

Donaldson more than made good on his one-year deal last winter with the Braves, who are among the other pursuers. He blistered the ball (50.0% hard-hit rate, 92.9 mph average exit velocity), drew a ton of walks (15.2% BB rate), and played great defense (especially in the eyes of DRS, which had him at +15 runs). It was a compelling campaign from a player who has already proven over multiple years that he’s capable of elite production, though teams have no doubt not forgotten that Donaldson is now 34 years of age and dealt with major leg injuries in the prior two seasons.

NL East Notes: Bumgarner, Ryu, Cespedes, Nationals, Phillies

By Mark Polishuk | December 19, 2019 at 8:43pm CDT

The Braves weren’t willing to go beyond a three-year contract for Madison Bumgarner, and “it seems highly doubtful” they would go to four years for Hyun-Jin Ryu, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes. Atlanta’s interest in Ryu is something of a new development, but Bowman feels it could be more due diligence on the Braves’ part than anything else, in case Ryu’s market shifts within the two- to three-year range. Multiple teams have been linked to Ryu this offseason, though it remains unclear whether any club will be willing to stretch to four years for a hurler who will be 33 years old on Opening Day and possesses a lengthy injury history.

The latest from around the NL East…

Could Yoenis Cespedes be a trade chip? A deal seems unlikely, but MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports that the Mets have received some trade interest in the outfielder in the wake of last week’s news that Cespedes’ salary has been reduced to less than $10MM, though with significant incentives that could make it worth $20MM (assuming Cespedes gets on the field at all in 2020, of course). Cespedes has a full no-trade clause, though DiComo speculates that Cespedes might welcome a change of scenery to a team that could offer him DH at-bats, or just to get away from “a team that successfully filed a grievance against him.” It could be that rival teams are open to absorbing Cespedes’ contract as a method of acquiring some younger talent from New York, similar to how the Giants recently took Zack Cozart’s salary off the Angels’ hands in order to land shortstop prospect Will Wilson, or how the Mets themselves are trying to attach a younger player to Jeurys Familia or Jed Lowrie in a trade.
The Nationals’ fifth starter competition is examined by Sam Fortier of the Washington Post, who reports that Erick Fedde has a minor league option remaining. This might not bode well for Fedde’s chances, as the Nats could send him down to Triple-A in favor of Austin Voth or Joe Ross, who are both out of options. That’s assuming, of course, that D.C. ends up going forward with one of these three in-house arms as the fifth starter. Fortier notes that the team was seemingly satisfied with this same trio last winter before signing Jeremy Hellickson prior to Spring Training, so it isn’t out of the question that the World Series champs could pursue another low-cost veteran before the offseason is out.
We haven’t heard much about David Phelps about this offseason, but Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer feels the right-hander would be a good (and relatively inexpensive) addition to the Phillies bullpen. After missing all of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery, Phelps had a solid comeback year in 2019, posting a 3.41 ERA, 2.12 K/BB rate, and 9.4 K/9 over 34 1/3 innings for the Cubs and Blue Jays. Phelps pitched under Phils manager Joe Girardi with the Yankees in 2012-14, and when asked about the reliever at the Winter Meetings, Girardi praised Phelps’ versatility, game preparation skills, and good numbers against both right-handed and left-handed batters.

Nationals To Sign Fernando Abad

By Steve Adams | December 18, 2019 at 4:15pm CDT

The Nationals are in agreement with lefty reliever Fernando Abad on a minor league contract, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Octagon client will presumably be in Major League camp once Spring Training opens.

Abad, who turned 34 yesterday, appeared in 21 games with the Giants in 2019, totaling 13 innings of 4.15 ERA ball with nine strikeouts against three walks. He was terrific in the exorbitantly hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League as well, logging a 3.07 ERA with 10.0 K/9, 0.8 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9 and a 44.4 percent ground-ball rate in 44 innings of work there.

This will be the second tour of duty with the Nats for Abad, who tossed 37 2/3 innings of 3.35 ERA ball over the life of 39 games for Washington back in 2013. Abad has bounced all over the league for the better part of a decade, pitching with the Astros, Nationals, Athletics, Twins, Red Sox and Giants in a career that began with Houston in 2010. He didn’t pitch in affiliated ball in 2018 thanks largely to an 80-game PED suspension.

While he’s never really settled in as a steadying presence in any one club’s bullpen, he’s generally been an effective reliever; Abad has a career 3.67 ERA in 330 2/3 innings as a big leaguer — including a 3.18 ERA (3.97 FIP) with 7.9 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9 dating back to the aforementioned 2013 season. He’s held left-handed opponents to a lifetime .234/.238/.378 batting line, while right-handers have handled him a bit better with a .257/.338/.412 slash to show for their efforts.

Nationals, Daniel Hudson Remain Apart On Contract Length

By Steve Adams | December 17, 2019 at 3:30pm CDT

3:30pm: It seems the Nats are potentially willing to offer more than one season, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports via Twitter. But with Hudson already sitting on multi-year interest from other clubs, it’s not clear how far the D.C. organization will chase the market.

12:18pm: The Nationals are still hoping to bring right-hander Daniel Hudson back for the 2020 season, but the two sides remain apart on the length of the contract, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter links). Hudson’s reps at Jet Sports are seeking a multi-year deal after the 32-year-old flamethrower stabilized the Nats’ bullpen and eventually closed out the World Series, but the team has been more focused on a one-year arrangement.

Hudson, who’ll turn 33 in March, was a somewhat quiet deadline pickup for the Nationals but was thrust into the closer’s spotlightwhen Sean Doolittle went down with an injury. Hudson thrived as he was placed into higher-leverage situations, ultimately pitching to a 1.44 ERA with a 23-to-4 K/BB ratio (two intentional walks) in 25 regular-season frames to finish out the year. He tacked on another 9 2/3 innings in the postseason, yielding four runs with a 10-to-4 K/BB ratio (with almost all of the damage against him coming in one three-run outing). Along the way, he averaged 96.4 mph on his fastball.

A multi-year deal for Hudson doesn’t seem like an unreasonable ask — particularly given the market for free-agent relievers to this point. Six relievers — Drew Pomeranz, Will Smith, Chris Martin, Joe Smith, Jake Diekman and Joely Rodriguez — have already inked multi-year contracts this winter, and Hudson is among the most obvious multi-year candidates that has yet to sign. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $12MM pact for Hudson to return to the Nationals at the outset of free agency.

Dougherty suggests that the Nationals’ general preference is to keep relievers over 30 to one-year contracts, though the Nats haven’t exactly demonstrated a strict adherence to that apparent preference in recent years. Washington acquired Doolittle and Ryan Madson in July 2017 when both were over 30 and had an additional year remaining on their contract, for instance, and in the past four years they’ve handed out multi-year free-agent deals to right-handers Brandon Kintzler (two years, $10MM) and Shawn Kelley (three years, $15MM). Hudson’s injury history, of course, has to be taken into consideration when weighing a multi-year deal. The right-hander already has a pair of Tommy John surgeries on his record (although that was also true of Kelley when he signed).

Latest On Nationals’ Third Base Plans

By Connor Byrne | December 13, 2019 at 9:16pm CDT

Having lost third baseman Anthony Rendon to the Angels earlier this week, the Nationals have turned their attention to the top free agent remaining on the market, Josh Donaldson, per reports from Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Bob Nightengale of USA Today. It appears the 34-year-old Donaldson will require a four-year commitment, and the Nationals are “actively engaged” in trying to sign him, according to Nightengale.

If you’re in the market for a third baseman, as the Rendon-less Nationals are, there’s no better option than Donaldson. The former American League Most Valuable Player (2015) is coming off a tremendous season with the Braves in which he slashed .259/.379/.521 (132 wRC+) with 37 home runs and 4.9 fWAR across 659 plate appearances. As a result, Donaldson could secure a payday worth in the $90MM range despite his age, as the demand for quality third basemen seems to outweigh the supply.

Teams that lose out on the Donaldson derby could try to swing a deal for Chicago’s Kris Bryant, yet another former MVP and a rumored trade candidate, but good luck trying to take him from the Cubs. In the Nationals’ case, there’s a “belief” the Cubs would require center fielder Victor Robles in a Bryant package, according to Heyman. As great as Bryant is, though, that’s a nonstarter from the perspective of reigning champion Washington. The Nationals have seen Robles develop into a high-quality starter at the tender age of 22 since he debuted in 2018, and they’re not giving him up.

MLBTR Poll: Best $200MM-Plus Contract

By Connor Byrne | December 13, 2019 at 7:33pm CDT

When it comes to the money handed out, this has been one of the most active weeks in the history of Major League Baseball. At the Winter Meetings, we saw two right-handers – Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324MM) and Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245MM) – as well as third baseman Anthony Rendon (seven years, $245MM) secure contracts worth a combined $814MM. All three are clients of super-agent Scott Boras, which makes this a glorious week for him. But which of these deals will work out the best?

Let’s start at the top with Cole, now the highest-paid pitcher the game has ever seen. He’s emigrating from the Astros to the rival Yankees, who finally reeled in their so-called white whale. Led by general manager Brian Cashman, the Yankees had previously chased Cole on multiple occasions, only to come up short. Of course, the 29-year-old Cole would’ve been much cheaper in the past, but he’s now the most expensive player on the Yankees’ roster.

Before Cole signed with the Yankees, Strasburg briefly had the honor of owning the richest all-time payday among MLB pitchers. Strasburg earned that after several stellar seasons in Washington, where he collected World Series MVP honors in 2019 after the Nats took down Cole and the Astros. Washington couldn’t let Strasburg go in the wake of his fall heroics, instead retaining him to keep forming a dominant trio with Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin. Although Strasburg, 31, is much cheaper than Cole, it’s worth noting he’s a couple years older.

Rendon joined Strasburg as an indispensable part of the Nationals’ 2019 title-winning club, but the Nats weren’t ready to go all-out to keep both of them. As a result, Rendon exited after the Strasburg re-up to accept the Angels’ offer on Wednesday. The Angels hope the 29-year-old Rendon and the game’s best player, center fielder Mike Trout, will help spark a playoff run in 2020 after years of irrelevance.

There’s no going back for the teams that signed Cole, Strasburg or Rendon. All three are locked into their incredibly large guarantees for the foreseeable future. In your opinion, though, which deal will work out the best?

(Poll link for app users)

Poll: Josh Donaldson’s Next Contract

By Steve Adams | December 13, 2019 at 7:29am CDT

With Anthony Rendon on his way to the Halos and Mike Moustakas now entrenched in Cincinnati, teams seeking a significant third-base upgrade in free agency are likely focused in on Josh Donaldson. The 2015 AL MVP was the clear No. 2 option heading into the winter, behind Rendon, and the manner in which things have played out has gone quite nicely for him and his representatives at the MVP Sports Group. Not only has the market been more aggressive for top-end free agents that at any point in the past two offseasons, but Moustakas signed with a club that plans to use him at second base and had no need for a third baseman. That’s notable for Donaldson (as it was for Rendon), because it took a top fallback option off the third base market without eliminating a potential suitor for Donaldson himself.

To this point, Donaldson has been most heavily linked to the Dodgers, Rangers, Nationals, Twins and Braves — although multiple reports out of Texas on Thursday suggested that the Rangers aren’t likely to be the highest bidder. Even if Texas is out of the running, that still leaves at least four viable landing spots for Donaldson. The Dodgers had interest in Rendon and could either move Justin Turner across the diamond or to another team entirely. Washington now has a Rendon-sized hole to fill at the hot corner, and Donaldson is one of the few third basemen in the game who can come close to matching that value on a per-game basis. The Twins could move Miguel Sano to first base and add Donaldson to an already potent lineup while simultaneously improving their infield defense. And the Braves, of course, were the beneficiaries of Donaldson’s .259/.379/.521 rebound campaign in 2019, when he swatted 37 home runs and tallied 4.9 fWAR and 6.1 bWAR.

It’s certainly possible, too, that other clubs are looming on the periphery. The Phillies, for instance, could theoretically push Scott Kingery to center field and deploy Donaldson at third base even after signing Didi Gregorius. The Brewers have funds available and an opening at third base, although beating the rest of the market on a free-agent deal of this nature has rarely been the team’s M.O. under president of baseball operations David Stearns (Lorenzo Cain being the notable exception). If the Cardinals can find a taker for Matt Carpenter, might they jump into the fray? They’ve been connected to Donaldson in each of the past few offseasons.

Suffice it to say, even with the Angels no longer a possible destination for Donaldson, there are plenty of plausible landing spots for a player who can reasonably be expected to deliver four to five wins above replacement in at least the first couple seasons of a new multi-year deal. The other question with regard to his market is just how high the bidding will go. Donaldson is expected to command at least a three-year contract and, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, already has one such offer in hand.

Whether a club will push to four guaranteed years could be the ultimate deciding factor. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweeted yesterday that “multiple” teams were willing to do so, although there’s been no indication that a team would be willing to go to four years and maintain the roughly $24-25MM annual commitment that Donaldson is expected to receive on a three-year arrangement. Being willing to go to $80-90MM on a four-year term isn’t the same as being willing to go to $100MM+ over the next four seasons.

Let’s open up the floor on each of those three aspects of his next contract…

Where will Donaldson sign? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

How long will the contract be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

What will the total guarantee be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

Free Agent Notes: Keuchel, Cards, Hudson, Nationals, Jays, Porcello, Rondon, Moose, Treinen

By Mark Polishuk | December 12, 2019 at 7:48am CDT

The Cardinals haven’t checked in on Dallas Keuchel since initially showing interest in the veteran lefty near the start of the offseason, The Athletic’s Mark Saxon reports (subscription required). While president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said told Saxon and other reporters that his team has been focused mostly on pitching during the Winter Meetings, “the Cardinals have chosen instead to slow-play their hand,” Saxon writes, perhaps to the chagrin of agents trying to get St. Louis involved in the fast-moving pitching market. “For us, we’re OK being patient,” Mozeliak said of a rotation that currently consists of Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson, and the club’s biggest winter addition to date, the re-signed Adam Wainwright. This decent group and multiple fifth-starter candidates on hand give the Cardinals the comfort in waiting until later in the offseason to add pitchers once asking prices from both free agents and trade partners could begin to drop.

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