Nationals Re-Sign Javy Guerra To Minors Deal
The Nationals have re-signed right-hander reliever Javy Guerra to a minor league contract, Evan Drellich of The Athletic tweets. If Guerra makes it to the majors, he’ll earn a $1MM salary with a chance at $500K in performance bonuses.
The 34-year-old Guerra first joined the Nationals off waivers from the Blue Jays in May. At that point, the Nationals looked like one of the majors’ biggest letdowns, thanks in part to a floundering bullpen. On May 22, the day they added Guerra, the Nationals fell to a woeful 19-30. Of course, they began steamrolling the rest of baseball shortly thereafter and went on to win their first-ever World Series title in the fall.
Guerra played a bit of a role for the Nationals in their Fall Classic win over Houston, as he appeared in two blowouts (one win, one loss) and combined for three innings of one-run ball. Before that, Guerra totaled 53 2/3 frames with a 4.86 ERA out of the Nationals’ bullpen in the regular season. Between Washington and Toronto, Guerra amassed 67 2/3 innings and put up a 4.66 ERA/4.25 FIP with 7.58 K/9 and 2.26 BB/9.
The Nats non-tendered Guerra last week in lieu of paying him a projected $1.3MM salary in 2020. However, he’s quickly back with the organization and will try to earn a spot in its bullpen again next season.
Nationals Agree To Re-Sign Stephen Strasburg
4:02pm: The Nationals have announced the agreement. The deal also comes with incentives, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. Strasburg will earn $500K for an MVP win, $250K for a second-place finish, $350K for third, $100K for fourth and $75K for fifth. His Cy Young incentives are the same. He’d take home $250K for another World Series MVP. An All-Star appearance, a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger are each worth another $100K apiece.
1:48pm: The defending World Series champs and the game’s biggest agent have kicked off the Winter Meetings with a bang. The Nationals have reached agreement on a new contract with star righty Stephen Strasburg, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. It’s a stunning seven-year deal that guarantees the Scott Boras client a whopping $245MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The sides will announce the deal this afternoon.
If there was ever any doubt as to the stability of the relationship between the Nats and the player once hailed as a franchise savior, this contract resolves it. There’s a full no-trade clause, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets. The contract does not come with options or opt-outs, per Tim Brown of Yahoo (via Twitter). About $80MM of the money is deferred, Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds on Twitter, but they will include interest, per Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal (Twitter link).
We had come to expect a record-setting pitching deal this winter, but not from Strasburg. Top-of-the-market ace Gerrit Cole had long figured to top David Price for the biggest-ever rotation contract. He’s certain still to do so … quite likely by far, far more than had been anticipated. Strasburg has now blown the prior $217MM record out of the water. It also tops the average-annual value record held previously by Zack Greinke.
Way back when the 2019 season began, it was highly questionable whether Strasburg would even opt out of the four years and $100MM left on his prior extension with the Nationals. The former top overall draft choice ended up turning in a huge regular season followed by an iconic postseason, leading the Nats to a long-awaited World Series berth. It was everything that he and the organization dreamed of when he was selected first overall back in 2009 and then made a stirring debut in 2010. That he navigated a devastating Tommy John surgery, shutdown controversy, and various travails thereafter only made it all the more meaningful.
It has been a rollercoaster for the Nats faithful, which watched Bryce Harper head to the rival Phillies last winter. Strasburg is back … but what about Anthony Rendon, who was the third consecutive first-round pick that president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo knocked out of the park. Ownership has said it doesn’t believe it can sign both Strasburg and Rendon. While that claim is worth questioning, it’s also quite a bit more understandable now that we know just how much the club had to pay to retain the former.
We’ll have to wait and see whether the Nats continue to pursue Rendon. But there’s an obvious impact on his market, which includes quite a few other major bidders. It’s also not difficult to see the connections between Strasburg’s signing and the still-developing rotation market. Pressure soared on the pitching market and the NL East arms race when the Phillies inked Zack Wheeler to a $118MM pact, snatching him from the Mets. With multiple teams pushing for Cole, and some viewing Strasburg as a major fallback target, the Nats acted decisively to bring back their ace. Having now secured larger-than-expected early strikes for Strasburg and Mike Moustakas, Boras can turn to ratcheting up the bidding on Cole, Rendon, and his other major open-market clients.
It’s quite something to see a contract of this magnitude for a 31-year-old pitcher just one winter removed from a spate of high-end hurlers inked extensions. Two aces in a similar age bracket — Jacob deGrom and Chris Sale — received much more modest guarantees. Those pitchers were obviously protecting against the risks of pitching in the majors, but they were also surely cognizant of a frigid free agent market. Now, it seems the thaw may be on … though how far it will extend remains to be seen.
To be sure, Strasburg not only ensconced himself in Nats lore but reaffirmed his top-shelf status in 2019. He topped two hundred innings for the second time in his career and worked to a 3.32 ERA that may actually have belied the true quality of his effort. With 10.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and a 51.1% groundball rate, he showed all the skills that help a pitcher generate outs. Strasburg graded at a 3.25 FIP, 3.17 xFIP, and 3.49 SIERA in 2019. His 13.4% swinging-strike rate was a career high, though he’s now averaging about two ticks less on his fastball than he did for much of his career. And he showed yet more in a blistering run through the postseason, when he allowed just eight earned runs with a ridiculous 47:4 K/BB ratio over 36 1/3 innings, topping it all off with a World Series MVP.
The risks are equally obvious. Though he has avoided another devastating arm injury, Strasburg averaged 145 innings annually between 2015-18 and has had arm scares throughout that time. (He also carried a 3.27 ERA in that span.) He’s now under contract through his age-37 campaign.
While the Nats are obviously pleased with the output they’ve received to this point, having now twice inked Strasburg to massive contracts, they’re still banking on quite a bit more in the second half of his career. The club has now expanded its already huge commitment to its trio of high-end starters, with Strasburg now topping the big salaries promised to Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin. Washington’s 2020 prospects will be determined in no small part by the way in which these hurlers bounce back from a Herculean postseason effort.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Nationals “Making Progress” In Talks With Stephen Strasburg
The Nationals are “making progress” in their contract negotiations with star righty Stephen Strasburg, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). We’ve heard persistent indication that the team anticipates bringing back the veteran righty, who opted out of his contract at the outset of the offseason.
More to come …
Winter Meetings Preview: Nationals’ Trade Chips
The World Champion Washington Nationals are waiting with the rest of us for the major free agent dominoes to fall, but in the meantime, there’s work to do. One such task might be finding trade partners for any number of current Nationals who are out of minor league options. Michael A. Taylor, Wilmer Difo, Adrian Sanchez, Raudy Read, Erick Fedde, Joe Ross, and Austin Voth are all potential trade candidates, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman.
The players listed above can no longer be shuttled back and forth between the minor leagues without being exposed to waivers – they either make the Opening Day roster, get traded elsewhere, or the Nats will risk losing them for nothing through the waiver claim process. Granted, this isn’t exactly Anthony Rendon or Stephen Strasburg. Washington can take their chances and not be overexposed. But if there’s value to return, GM Mike Rizzo might do well to look for it this week in San Diego.
On the position player side, there’s not much to offer. Taylor has become somewhat of a folklore “postseason specialist,” and there’s room for him on the roster as a fourth outfielder. But he’ll turn 29 in March, and his bygone ceiling as a second division starter has been replaced with legitimate questions about whether he carries enough bat to make the 26-man roster. He’s somewhat inexplicably beloved by a large contingent of fans in the DMV, but the Nationals may very well explore finding another option as insurance should Juan Soto, Victor Robles, and Adam Eaton not prove as healthy as they were in 2019. Taylor is a capable defender and baserunner, but he’s also due over $3MM, carries a career .240/.294/.393 batting line across over 1700 big league plate appearances, and he’s coming off a season spent almost entirely in Double-A (though for Washington, Double-A served as a holding grounds for potential call-ups, since their Triple-A team was located across the country in Fresno).
Difo is of a similar mold, but in the infield and without the postseason heroics. Neither Difo nor Sanchez are likely to bring back anything via trade, nor should they really be relied upon by the Nats. Difo will turn 28 this year, Sanchez 30, and there’s just not much upside to mine. Read is a 26-year-old catcher with pop who is out of options despite only 22 big league plate appearances. His power numbers in Triple-A last year (.546 SLG) are enough to crane a neck or two, and the Nats are probably fine with Tres Barrera serving as their emergency third catcher.
Where this gets interesting is with the trio of pitchers who rotated in and out of the Nats’ fifth starter spot. Fedde, Ross, and Voth all experienced some degree of success in 2019, though not one is a sure thing to make the roster.
Ross’ overall numbers (5.48 ERA/4.59 FIP) are ugly, but they’re largely attributable to a horrid run in the bullpen. As a starter in the second half, Ross went 4-2 with a 3.02 ERA, showing signs of finally returning to the mid-rotation form he flashed as a younger player. Though high heat is in vogue, Ross hit his stride when his sinker became a primary offering as it had been before injuries derailed his career. Call me crazy – and this brand of breakout is hardly normative enough to form an archetype – but there’s hints of Jake Arrieta here. Ross is just two years from free agency, and even his second half performance is probably more than should be expected moving forward – but after a 1.05 ERA across five starts in August, Ross certainly became a guy a front office can dream on.
There was a time when those within the Nats’ organization were aligned on Voth as nothing more than organizational filler, and he was the last guy on the Nats’ 40-man roster to get a look in the show last year, but he added a couple ticks to his fastball and pitched to a 3.30 ERA/3.70 FIP across 43 2/3 inning worth 1.2 bWAR. Should Strasburg return to Washington, Voth and Ross are probably dueling for the fifth starter spot. It’s also hard to imagine the Nats defending their title with both in the rotation even if Strasburg departs. Still, given the strides shown by Ross and Voth last season, it’s not inconceivable.
Fedde could be the odd man out, but there’s enough of a pedigree to at least explore his value on the trade market. The 26-year-old right-hander was a top-4 Nationals prospect by Baseball America from 2014 to 2017, topping out as the #82 prospect in baseball following the 2015 season. He’s a former first round pick with a Tommy John surgery already in the rearview. The results the last few seasons have been mixed (4.50 ERA in 2019), but there’s no major trauma, and speculatively speaking, he’d be a good fit every fifth day for a younger team like the Blue Jays or Orioles.
Nationals To Sign Kyle Finnegan
The Nationals have agreed to terms on an MLB deal with reliever Kyle Finnegan, per a team announcement.
The right-handed Finnegan has spent the entirety of his professional career as an Athletics farmhand. In 2019 he recorded a 2.31 ERA with 14 saves while splitting time between Triple-A Las Vegas and Double-A Midland. The 28-year-old showed a huge uptick in strikeouts after a 2016 migration to the bullpen, as evidenced by his 72 Ks in just 52.2 innings of work last year (12.8 strikeouts per nine).
For the Nationals, bringing in an unproven reliever who’s shown an ability to succeed in the upper minors reads as a worthwhile gamble, given their recent issues in the pen. Last offseason saw their acquisitions of formerly dominant MLB relievers Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough go sideways early on, so it makes sense that they might change track somewhat and offer an opportunity to a bullpen greenhorn. Washington’s 40-man count now sits at 30.
Market Chatter: Rangers/Rendon, Nats Spending, Betts, Hill, Maldonado
The Rangers feel like they’re in solid position on star third baseman Anthony Rendon, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan writes. It appears as if the possibility of a shorter deal at a premium AAV might hold some appeal to the Rangers as well as Rendon. But it’s tough to gauge the likelihood that he’ll land in Texas. Per Sullivan, the sides have yet to launch “serious negotiations” on the price tag. You can be sure that Scott Boras will not rush into a signing if he feels competition can drive the price up yet further, so there’s likely some market development yet to come.
More recent chatter …
- Agent Scott Boras expressed skepticism regarding the Nationals‘ recent declaration that they can’t afford both Rendon and Stephen Strasburg. The super-agent tells Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) that he sees ample capacity for the D.C. organization, which has done quite a lot of business with Boras over the years (to mutual satisfaction, for the most part). Britt Ghiroli provides further assessment of the situation in another Athletic piece, proffering a sensible distinction between what the club can do and what it prefers. As she points out, too, it’s also possible that owner Mark Lerner made the comments to buttress his bargaining position. And it’s probably fair to add that the Nats have generally not shied from carrying big payrolls and making large commitments in the recent past.
- Also skeptical? Rival executives, regarding the likelihood of the Red Sox trading Mookie Betts, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). That’s really not surprising to hear, though the reasoning offered by Nightengale’s sources is a bit confounding. The issue, he says, is that rival clubs won’t offer all that much for the outstanding outfielder. They “can simply wait until he’s a free agent next winter” rather than taking on a big salary and giving up valuable prospects. That seems to miss the point in large part, as a team acquiring Betts now would be doing so specifically to pick up his highly valuable age-27 season. Renting one of the game’s best players would obviously alter a team’s outlook for the coming season rather drastically; it stands to reason it’d cost something to do so.
- Lefty Rich Hill has not only drawn wide interest despite major elbow surgery … it seems he’s open to considering offers from all teams, so long as they have hopes of winning in 2020. In an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link), Hill says he’s not focused solely on his two preferred landing spots (the Dodgers and Red Sox). While it seems that he’d still rather end up in one of those two places, the veteran says that they “might not work out.” He’s open to considering other contenders. And Hill left no doubt that he anticipates playing a big role in the 2020 season, saying he hopes to be ready to roll by June.
- The Angels are planning to sit down with backstop Martin Maldonado at the Winter Meetings, per Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter). That’s not especially portentous news, as Fletcher points out, as teams hold many such meetings this time of year. Still, it’s a notable connection, particularly since the catching market has developed on a relatively rapid timetable. The 33-year-old Maldonado spent on the Halos roster in 2017 and 2018, so the organization is plenty familiar with him.
Phillies To Pursue Anthony Rendon
The Phillies are preparing to make a run at free agent third baseman Anthony Rendon, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. He’s now the team’s top priority, per the report.
If there was any doubt as to the Phillies’ all-in intentions after they inked Zack Wheeler, this would seem to resolve it. The organization had spoken of its disinclination to part with draft compensation to land free agents. But having done so for Wheeler, adding another qualifying offer-declining free agent would actually cost less in draft capital.
Should the sides end up seeing eye to eye on a contract, Rendon would be following Bryce Harper in a dramatic trip north on I-95. It’s not difficult to see the match on paper. Rendon is an exceptional all-around player who’d fill the void at the hot corner for the Phils. The team grew tired of waiting for Maikel Franco to establish himself there and isn’t inclined to sit on its hands until top prospect Alec Bohm is ready.
Plenty of other teams (the incumbent Nationals among them) would likewise love to slot Rendon in at third base. He’s being courted by a variety of organizations. Rumors persist that Rendon would be interested in a somewhat shorter, higher-AAV contract — the precise opposite of the angle Harper took. Whether that sort of arrangement would suit the Philadelphia club’s needs isn’t known.
What is clear is that the involvement of the Phillies only serves to buttress Rendon’s market. Entering the winter, we predicted a $235MM guarantee over seven years. It seems that Rendon does indeed have that kind of earning power, even if he ultimately elects to take a shorter contract with greater single-season salaries.
Nationals To Re-Sign Howie Kendrick
9:00am: The two sides have finalized a one-year deal that promises Kendrick a $6.25MM guarantee, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link). It’s the same guarantee that Steve Pearce received from the Red Sox on the heels of his own postseason heroics following the 2018 World Series.
8:47am: The Nationals are “closing in” on a deal to bring postseason hero Howie Kendrick back to the team, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports (via Twitter). It’ll be a one-year deal with a mutual option for the Reynolds Sports client once completed, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets, adding that Kendrick spurned guaranteed two-year offers to return to Washington.
Kendrick, 36, has been nothing short of outstanding with the Nats over the past two seasons, hitting a combined .331/.375/.541 with 21 homers, 37 doubles and a triple through 530 plate appearances. With Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Adams, Brian Dozier and Asdrubal Cabrera all entering free agency, the Nats have some uncertainty at first base and second base, making a reunion with Kendrick a rather sensible pursuit.
Of course, as good as Kendrick has been during the regular season, it was his postseason heroics that truly endeared him to fans and entrenched his place in franchise lore. Kendrick’s 10th-inning grand slam against the Dodgers in the NLDS put Washington up for good and sent them toward a date with the Cardinals in the NLCS, where Kendrick was named the series MVP after hitting .333/.412/.600 in a four-game sweep. And in the World Series, it was Kendrick’s remarkable Game 7, opposite-field shot off the foul pole that put the Nationals ahead by a 3-2 margin they’d never relinquish.
Kendrick becomes the second member of the Nationals’ championship club to re-up on a new contract, joining catcher Yan Gomes, who agreed to a two-year, $10MM contract two weeks ago. The Nats still have bigger targets to address, as both Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon are looming on the free-agent market, but Kendrick’s return shores up some infield needs and ensures that one of their most productive bats over the past two and a half seasons will remain in the fold.
Even with Kendrick aboard for another season, the Nationals’ 2020 payroll currently projects to about $132MM, while their luxury-tax considerations come in around $142MM (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource). Viewed through that lens, it certainly seems as though the Nats have the payroll capacity to retain both Strasburg and Rendon, although owner Mark Lerner perhaps dubiously suggested otherwise yesterday in claiming his club could only afford to sign one of its two departing stars to a long-term deal. The Nats do have some pricey arbitration cases beginning to mount — Trea Turner is a second-time-eligible Super Two player in 2020 and Juan Soto will be eligible in 2021 — but Patrick Corbin is currently the only player the team has signed beyond the 2021 campaign.
Nats Owner Lerner: “We Really Can Only Afford To Have One Of” Rendon Or Strasburg
Nationals principal owner Mark Lerner expressed doubt about his franchise’s ability to re-sign both Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg this offseason, as Lerner told NBC Sports Washington’s Donald Dell. (Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington has early details about the interview, which will take air in full on Dell’s show on December 17.)
“We really can only afford to have one of those two guys,” Lerner said. “They’re huge numbers. We already have a really large payroll to begin with….We’re pursuing them, we’re pursuing other free agents in case they decided to go elsewhere. Again, it’s not up to us. We can give them a great offer — which we’ve done to both of those players. They’re great people. We’d be delighted if they stay. But it’s not up to us, it’s up to them. That’s why they call it free agency.”
MLBTR’s ranking of the winter’s top 50 free agents (which, incidentally, predicted both Rendon and Strasburg would wind up back in D.C.) projected Rendon for a seven-year, $235MM deal and Strasburg for six years and $180MM. That works out to a little more than $63.57MM in average annual value if the Nationals were to land both players at those projected prices, and since Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez estimates the Nats’ current luxury tax number at just under $135.32MM, that would bring the total to roughly $199MM.
This leaves Washington with some wiggle room under the $208MM luxury tax threshold to add more roster upgrades beyond only Rendon and Strasburg, though surpassing the tax threshold seemingly wouldn’t be a problem since the Nats were willing to pay the tax in both 2017 and 2018. By ducking under the threshold last season, the Nationals would again be charged at the “first-timer” rate of a 20 percent tax on the overage of any payroll that falls between $208-$228MM. Since Adam Eaton, Anibal Sanchez, Sean Doolittle, and Kurt Suzuki could all come off the books after the 2020 season, the Nationals could potentially even get back under the 2021 threshold ($210MM) or at worst pay another minimal penalty by staying within the $210-$230MM range.
Of course, the Nats would further shave more money off their payroll with other moves, or Rendon and Strasburg could also end up costing more money than our projected figures. But, strictly speaking, there isn’t any real financial barrier preventing the club from re-signing both players. Lerner’s declaration could be something of a tactic, Dybas writes, since it would be “poor negotiating” to “flatly state the organization is going to find a way to pay both….Being in between serves multiple needs: It keeps the door open on each player; it stirs the market without roiling it; it prepares fans for an outcome they don’t prefer.”
While the Nationals haven’t been afraid to spend big on free agents or player salaries in general, they face a unique situation in having two star players (both represented by the same agent, Scott Boras) hit the open market at the same time. Several teams have already been linked to both players, including some of the game’s wealthiest franchises — the Dodgers have spoken to both, while the Rangers have interest in Rendon, and the Phillies and Yankees are known to be interested in Strasburg. Since the bidding will be high for both players, the Nats could re-direct their resources towards one player in particular if the price tag for the other becomes truly untenable.
Teams Announce Final Non-Tenders
We’ve been tracking the day’s arbitration decisions in the run-up to tonight’s deadline, which has produced a bevy of last-minute calls. In addition to those already covered elsewhere (with all projected salary figures from MLBTR/Matt Swartz projections) …
- The Padres announced they have non-tendered Miguel Diaz and Pedro Avila. Neither hurler had yet been eligible for arbitration, so this amounts to no more than a roster cleanup. Avila had already been designated for assignment. Diaz, meanwhile, saw extensive action as a Rule V pick in 2017 but has only sporadically logged MLB time since.
- Relievers Javy Guerra and Koda Glover were non-tendered by the Nationals, per a club announcement. Guerra would have cost a projected $1.3MM. Glover announced earlier today that he would retire.
- The Red Sox non-tendered infielder Marco Hernandez and reliever Josh Osich, per a team announcement. Neither projected at big dollars — $700K and $1.0MM, respectively — but obviously the club felt it could put the roster spots to better use on other players.
- The Blue Jays have non-tendered relievers Derek Law and Jason Adam, along with backstop Luke Maile. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter) and Scott Mitchell of TSN (on Twitter) were on the news. Law projected at $1.3MM, while Maile was in line for a $800K payday. Adam is still pre-arb eligible.
- The Giants announced today that they have non-tendered outfielder Joey Rickard ($1.1MM projection), southpaw Tyler Anderson ($2.625MM), and righty Rico Garcia (pre-arb). Both Anderson and Garcia were claimed from the division-rival Rockies after the end of the 2019 season.
- In addition to other moves earlier today, the Braves have non-tendered catcher John Ryan Murphy and outfielder Rafael Ortega. Each provided depth down the stretch in 2019 for the Atlanta organization. Murphy would’ve been owed a projected $1.2MM, while Ortega remains shy of arbitration eligibility.
- A host of players were non-tendered by the Royals, per a club announcement. Righty Jesse Hahn was cut loose along with infielders Humberto Arteaga, Cheslor Cuthbert and Erick Mejia. Among these players, Hahn (projected $900K) and Cuthbert ($1.8MM) have the most MLB experience. With these 40-man trimmings, the K.C. org should be able to place some claims and/or make Rule 5 selections in the coming weeks.
- Righties Ian Gibaut and Wei-Chieh Huang are each heading to free agency after being non-tendered by the Rangers. Neither is anywhere near the service time needed for arbitration eligibility, so this was just an opportune time for the Texas org to drop them from the MLB roster.