Latest On Nationals’ Third Base Plans
Having lost third baseman Anthony Rendon to the Angels earlier this week, the Nationals have turned their attention to the top free agent remaining on the market, Josh Donaldson, per reports from Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Bob Nightengale of USA Today. It appears the 34-year-old Donaldson will require a four-year commitment, and the Nationals are “actively engaged” in trying to sign him, according to Nightengale.
If you’re in the market for a third baseman, as the Rendon-less Nationals are, there’s no better option than Donaldson. The former American League Most Valuable Player (2015) is coming off a tremendous season with the Braves in which he slashed .259/.379/.521 (132 wRC+) with 37 home runs and 4.9 fWAR across 659 plate appearances. As a result, Donaldson could secure a payday worth in the $90MM range despite his age, as the demand for quality third basemen seems to outweigh the supply.
Teams that lose out on the Donaldson derby could try to swing a deal for Chicago’s Kris Bryant, yet another former MVP and a rumored trade candidate, but good luck trying to take him from the Cubs. In the Nationals’ case, there’s a “belief” the Cubs would require center fielder Victor Robles in a Bryant package, according to Heyman. As great as Bryant is, though, that’s a nonstarter from the perspective of reigning champion Washington. The Nationals have seen Robles develop into a high-quality starter at the tender age of 22 since he debuted in 2018, and they’re not giving him up.
MLBTR Poll: Best $200MM-Plus Contract
When it comes to the money handed out, this has been one of the most active weeks in the history of Major League Baseball. At the Winter Meetings, we saw two right-handers – Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324MM) and Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245MM) – as well as third baseman Anthony Rendon (seven years, $245MM) secure contracts worth a combined $814MM. All three are clients of super-agent Scott Boras, which makes this a glorious week for him. But which of these deals will work out the best?
Let’s start at the top with Cole, now the highest-paid pitcher the game has ever seen. He’s emigrating from the Astros to the rival Yankees, who finally reeled in their so-called white whale. Led by general manager Brian Cashman, the Yankees had previously chased Cole on multiple occasions, only to come up short. Of course, the 29-year-old Cole would’ve been much cheaper in the past, but he’s now the most expensive player on the Yankees’ roster.
Before Cole signed with the Yankees, Strasburg briefly had the honor of owning the richest all-time payday among MLB pitchers. Strasburg earned that after several stellar seasons in Washington, where he collected World Series MVP honors in 2019 after the Nats took down Cole and the Astros. Washington couldn’t let Strasburg go in the wake of his fall heroics, instead retaining him to keep forming a dominant trio with Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin. Although Strasburg, 31, is much cheaper than Cole, it’s worth noting he’s a couple years older.
Rendon joined Strasburg as an indispensable part of the Nationals’ 2019 title-winning club, but the Nats weren’t ready to go all-out to keep both of them. As a result, Rendon exited after the Strasburg re-up to accept the Angels’ offer on Wednesday. The Angels hope the 29-year-old Rendon and the game’s best player, center fielder Mike Trout, will help spark a playoff run in 2020 after years of irrelevance.
There’s no going back for the teams that signed Cole, Strasburg or Rendon. All three are locked into their incredibly large guarantees for the foreseeable future. In your opinion, though, which deal will work out the best?
(Poll link for app users)
Whose contract will work out the best?
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Anthony Rendon 50% (10,085)
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Gerrit Cole 39% (7,891)
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Stephen Strasburg 12% (2,355)
Total votes: 20,331
Poll: Josh Donaldson’s Next Contract
With Anthony Rendon on his way to the Halos and Mike Moustakas now entrenched in Cincinnati, teams seeking a significant third-base upgrade in free agency are likely focused in on Josh Donaldson. The 2015 AL MVP was the clear No. 2 option heading into the winter, behind Rendon, and the manner in which things have played out has gone quite nicely for him and his representatives at the MVP Sports Group. Not only has the market been more aggressive for top-end free agents that at any point in the past two offseasons, but Moustakas signed with a club that plans to use him at second base and had no need for a third baseman. That’s notable for Donaldson (as it was for Rendon), because it took a top fallback option off the third base market without eliminating a potential suitor for Donaldson himself.
To this point, Donaldson has been most heavily linked to the Dodgers, Rangers, Nationals, Twins and Braves — although multiple reports out of Texas on Thursday suggested that the Rangers aren’t likely to be the highest bidder. Even if Texas is out of the running, that still leaves at least four viable landing spots for Donaldson. The Dodgers had interest in Rendon and could either move Justin Turner across the diamond or to another team entirely. Washington now has a Rendon-sized hole to fill at the hot corner, and Donaldson is one of the few third basemen in the game who can come close to matching that value on a per-game basis. The Twins could move Miguel Sano to first base and add Donaldson to an already potent lineup while simultaneously improving their infield defense. And the Braves, of course, were the beneficiaries of Donaldson’s .259/.379/.521 rebound campaign in 2019, when he swatted 37 home runs and tallied 4.9 fWAR and 6.1 bWAR.
It’s certainly possible, too, that other clubs are looming on the periphery. The Phillies, for instance, could theoretically push Scott Kingery to center field and deploy Donaldson at third base even after signing Didi Gregorius. The Brewers have funds available and an opening at third base, although beating the rest of the market on a free-agent deal of this nature has rarely been the team’s M.O. under president of baseball operations David Stearns (Lorenzo Cain being the notable exception). If the Cardinals can find a taker for Matt Carpenter, might they jump into the fray? They’ve been connected to Donaldson in each of the past few offseasons.
Suffice it to say, even with the Angels no longer a possible destination for Donaldson, there are plenty of plausible landing spots for a player who can reasonably be expected to deliver four to five wins above replacement in at least the first couple seasons of a new multi-year deal. The other question with regard to his market is just how high the bidding will go. Donaldson is expected to command at least a three-year contract and, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, already has one such offer in hand.
Whether a club will push to four guaranteed years could be the ultimate deciding factor. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweeted yesterday that “multiple” teams were willing to do so, although there’s been no indication that a team would be willing to go to four years and maintain the roughly $24-25MM annual commitment that Donaldson is expected to receive on a three-year arrangement. Being willing to go to $80-90MM on a four-year term isn’t the same as being willing to go to $100MM+ over the next four seasons.
Let’s open up the floor on each of those three aspects of his next contract…
Where will Donaldson sign? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
Where will Josh Donaldson sign?
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Braves 45% (14,548)
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Nationals 24% (7,695)
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Dodgers 10% (3,316)
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Twins 10% (3,199)
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Rangers 7% (2,218)
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Other (specify in comments) 4% (1,341)
Total votes: 32,317
How long will the contract be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
How many guaranteed years will Josh Donaldson get?
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Three years 48% (11,411)
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Four years 43% (10,056)
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Two years 8% (1,795)
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One year 1% (304)
Total votes: 23,566
What will the total guarantee be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
How much money will Josh Donaldson be guaranteed?
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$75-90MM 38% (8,399)
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$90-100MM 23% (5,039)
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$65-75MM 23% (5,023)
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Under $65MM 9% (2,046)
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More than $100MM 8% (1,724)
Total votes: 22,231
Free Agent Notes: Keuchel, Cards, Hudson, Nationals, Jays, Porcello, Rondon, Moose, Treinen
The Cardinals haven’t checked in on Dallas Keuchel since initially showing interest in the veteran lefty near the start of the offseason, The Athletic’s Mark Saxon reports (subscription required). While president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said told Saxon and other reporters that his team has been focused mostly on pitching during the Winter Meetings, “the Cardinals have chosen instead to slow-play their hand,” Saxon writes, perhaps to the chagrin of agents trying to get St. Louis involved in the fast-moving pitching market. “For us, we’re OK being patient,” Mozeliak said of a rotation that currently consists of Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson, and the club’s biggest winter addition to date, the re-signed Adam Wainwright. This decent group and multiple fifth-starter candidates on hand give the Cardinals the comfort in waiting until later in the offseason to add pitchers once asking prices from both free agents and trade partners could begin to drop.
More from the free agent market….
- Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman) that he had begun talks with Daniel Hudson‘s agent about a possible return to the World Series champs. After being acquired in a trade deadline deal from the Blue Jays, Hudson had a huge role in stabilizing Washington’s season-long bullpen problems, posting a 1.44 ERA over 25 regular season innings and then a 3.72 ERA over 9 2/3 frames in the playoffs as the Nats’ closer. This great showing down the stretch has Hudson asking for a multi-year deal in free agency, Zuckerman hears from a source, though Zuckerman isn’t sure the Nationals will make such a commitment to a pitcher whose overall performance over the last few years is far more inconsistent. MLBTR did predict a multi-year contract for Hudson (two years, $12MM) while ranking him 28th on our list of the winter’s 50 best free agents.
- In terms of other pitching needs, Rizzo expressed confidence in internal arms. The general manager feels relievers Roenis Elias and Hunter Strickland will be better than 2020 due to improved health, and Joe Ross, Austin Voth, Erick Fedde will seemingly provide all the competition necessary for the fifth starter’s job. “I think we’re more than satisfied with our rotation,” Rizzo said, and with good cause, considering the Nationals‘ starting four of Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, and the re-signed Stephen Strasburg.
- With multiple pitchers flying off the board, the rotation-needy Blue Jays “began to engage more aggressively with” Tanner Roark, Josh Lindblom, and Rick Porcello over the last two days, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes. The result was one miss as Lindblom signed with the Brewers, one success in the form of a two-year, $24MM deal with Roark, and one result to be determined as Porcello continues to weigh his options. Toronto is also looking towards relief pitchers, as Davidi reports that Hector Rondon has received some interest.
- Davidi’s piece also contains some interesting details on two other Blue Jays targets who signed elsewhere. The Jays met with Blake Treinen‘s agent prior to Treinen’s one-year, $10MM pact with the Dodgers. Perhaps more surprisingly, it seems the Blue Jays put significant effort into a pursuit of Mike Moustakas, as GM Ross Atkins and manager Charlie Montoyo both visited Moustakas at his home. Toronto wasn’t known to be an ardent suitor for Moustakas, though his left-handed power bat and multi-positional infield ability would have made him a quality upgrade for the Jays’ lineup. Moustakas wound up surpassing all expectations by landing four years and $64MM in a deal with the Reds.
Third Base Notes: Donaldson, Braves, Bryant, Nats, Castro, Franco
Now that Anthony Rendon has signed with the Angels, Josh Donaldson is both the top third baseman remaining on the open market and quite possibly the top free agent still available at any position. There was already enough interest in Donaldson that he was reportedly looking more and more likely to receive a four-year commitment, which is good news for a player who “is seeking the largest possible guarantee” in his next contract, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes (subscription required).
The star third baseman just turned 34 this week and, since his injury-plagued 2018 season already cost him his first chance at a big multi-year free agent deal last winter, it isn’t surprising that Donaldson wants to max out his payday now that he is coming off an outstanding 2019 campaign. Rosenthal hears that “all things being equal, Donaldson’s preference is to return to the Braves,” though if it comes down to a pure bidding war, Atlanta doesn’t seem to have the available payroll to outspend Donaldson suitors like the Dodgers, Rangers, Twins, or Nationals.
The Braves have already spread some significant cash around this winter, adding free agents Cole Hamels, Will Smith, and Travis d’Arnaud while re-signing Chris Martin, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers, and Darren O’Day. As per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, Atlanta is set to spend just under $142.2MM on player salaries next season, which would be the largest payroll in franchise history. $142.2MM is a modest number compared to what most contending teams spend, though since there has long been speculation about how much money the Liberty Media ownership group would be willing to allocate to payroll, adding another major contract to the books (Donaldson’s next deal could well be in the area of $25MM in average annual value) might not be feasible, unless other salaries were cut loose.
If Atlanta misses out on Donaldson, they might need to get creative in adding another big bat to their lineup. Reports from earlier this week suggested that the Braves could look to Marcell Ozuna, though Rosenthal notes that “they currently have only limited interest” in Ozuna’s services. As for another big third base target in the Cubs‘ Kris Bryant, Rosenthal notes that Atlanta is among the clubs who have concerns about Bryant’s declining glovework (as per UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved) over the last few seasons. This doesn’t necessarily rule out a potential trade between the Braves and Cubs since Bryant could be used as a corner outfielder, though it doesn’t seem like Bryant is at the top of the Braves’ list at this point.
Speaking of fallback options for Donaldson, Rosenthal writes that Starlin Castro and Maikel Franco are on the Nationals‘ radar as third base candidates. Washington has gotten long looks at both players from their days in the NL East, though both Castro and Franco would certainly be stopgap options at best given their underwhelming performances over the last few seasons. Castro has been a slightly below-average run producer (98 OPS+ and wRC+) since the start of the 2016 campaign, while Franco hasn’t lived up his billing as one of baseball’s top prospects, hitting only .249/.302/.431 over 2539 career PA with the Phillies.
In terms of bigger-ticket additions at third base, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter link) reports that the Nationals have yet to touch base with the Cubs about Bryant, contrary to earlier reports. This isn’t to say that the Nats couldn’t still look into Bryant should Donaldson sign with another team.
Dodgers “Pessimistic” On Rendon, Still Talking Lindor With Indians
2:31pm: While the likelihood of an arrangement isn’t known, the Dodgers are engaged in “serious” and ongoing talks with the Indians regarding star shortstop Francisco Lindor, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The report suggests that the Cleveland organization wants a prospect package that includes top talents Gavin Lux and Dustin May, each of whom reached the majors late last year. Whether the demand is for both to be included isn’t entirely clear.
2:00pm: The Dodgers are increasingly “pessimistic” as to their chances of striking a deal with top remaining free agent Anthony Rendon, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The L.A. org just missed out on Gerrit Cole and could now see its other major target slip away.
What’s the mean for the market on Rendon? Rosenthal reiterates several other recent reports indicating that the Nationals are unlikely to bring back their star third bagger. The Rangers and Angels appear to be the leading contenders to secure the services of the smooth-swinging 29-year-old.
As for the Dodgers, if indeed they fall out of the Rendon bidding they’ll presumably keep moving down the line of options. The club is said to have interest in Josh Donaldson, Madison Bumgarner, and several other possible free agent and trade targets.
Nationals Announce Howie Kendrick, Yan Gomes Deals
The Nationals’ previously reported deals with infielder Howie Kendrick and catcher Yan Gomes are now official, the team announced.
Kendrick will earn $4MM in 2020 with a mutual option for $6.5MM or a $2.25MM buyout for 2021, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. At the moment, the 36-year-old is penciled in as Washington’s starting first baseman for 2020 after a year in which he was nothing short of spectacular during the regular season and the playoffs.
The long-solid Kendrick slashed an eye-popping .344/.395/.572 and swatted 17 home runs in 370 plate appearances during the regular campaign, in which he was a Statcast darling, before coming up with more than one enormously important hit in a postseason that ended with the Nationals’ first-ever World Series championship. He’s etched in Nationals lore for his grand slam against the Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLDS and his go-ahead home run in Game 7 of the World Series in Houston.
Gomes wasn’t anywhere near as successful as Kendrick in 2019, but the Nats nonetheless brought him back to again pair with fellow veteran Kurt Suzuki behind the plate. The 32-year-old Gomes will rake in $4MM next season and $6MM in 2021 on the two-year, $10MM pact he landed, per Nightengale.
Nationals “Ready To Pivot” To Josh Donaldson
The Nationals are “ready to pivot” to Josh Donaldson as an alternative at third base, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. It’s a longstanding connection, but the circumstances have shifted of late.
If this report is read most expansively, it might suggest that the Nats have all but given up their pursuit of Anthony Rendon, the superstar they drafted and helped to develop into one of the game’s best players. But the organization has been unwilling to rule out that possibility in the wake of the re-signing of Stephen Strasburg.
At minimum, it sounds as if the Nationals believe they’re likely to need a replacement for Rendon as he continues to draw suitors. That’s an awfully tall order, but the club certainly isn’t lowering its standards with its reported targets to date. In addition to considering Donaldson, the Nats are also said to have checked in on the trade availability of Kris Bryant.
If indeed the Nats do make a full-court press for Donaldson, they’ll need to stand out among several other contenders for his services. The division-rival Braves and Phillies are among them, along with the Dodgers, Rangers, and perhaps others. With loads of market appetite and a relative dearth of alternatives, particularly now that Mike Moustakas has signed with the Reds as a second baseman, Donaldson is seen as increasingly likely to command a four-year deal.
The Nationals have proven time and again that they’ll pay top dollar for free agents. In addition to the deals they got done, the club heavily pursued players such as Jason Heyward and Yoenis Cespedes. Whether they’ll come away with Donaldson can’t be known at the moment, but dedicated involvement from the D.C. organization is unquestionably a boon to his earning power.
Latest On Kris Bryant
The Cubs have reportedly been in fervent pursuit of trade possibilities, exploring deals involving much of their roster — including Kris Bryant. There are some wrinkles to structuring a deal for the superstar third baseman, as well as some new market developments of note. In particular, the Nationals have approached the Cubs to discuss Bryant, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com.
The Cubs are still awaiting resolution on a service-time grievance filed by Bryant and his representatives, despite the fact that a hearing was held in late October. Speaking to The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and other reporters at the Winter Meetings, Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said he felt the ruling is “not going to be more than a couple weeks away,” though he admitted some frustration that the matter has yet to be decided.
That said, Epstein stated the team is “operating with what our understanding of what the likely outcome will be and moving forward that way,” which would hint that the Cubs are confident that Bryant will remain under team control through the 2021 season. A ruling in the other direction, which would grant Bryant free agency after the 2020 season, would certainly count as a surprise, and one with a major impact on Chicago’s future roster maneuverings.
Needless to say, the length of Bryant’s remaining service time would have a giant impact on what the Wrigleyville side would receive back in a trade, though the third base market joins the delayed grievance ruling as the biggest factors in any trade plans the Cubs might have for Bryant. Sharma notes that the Cubs are figuring that teams who miss out on Anthony Rendon or Josh Donaldson could come calling about Bryant, which would leave Chicago discussing Bryant with at least three of such teams as the Dodgers, Braves, Rangers, Phillies, and Nationals. Of that group, the Cubs would most likely be interested in the prospect-deep Atlanta or Los Angeles farm systems. Sharma also wonders if Chicago could also shop Bryant to the Padres (another club with a stacked farm system) as an outfielder, since San Diego is set at the corner infield spots with Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer.
In terms of specific potential landing spots, it seems we’re mostly dealing with informed speculation and hypotheticals. But we’re also beginning to see indications of actual trade talks. The Nationals’ reported expression of interest is certainly intriguing, though it may be difficult for the D.C. organization to structure a deal. The club is not ruling out a return from Rendon and has also shown interest in Donaldson. But adding another monster deal to bring back Rendon would be tough to do. And Donaldson is said to be heading for a fourth guaranteed year with widespread interest. Under the circumstances, the Nats are surely not the only team to have made contact regarding Bryant. Jon Heyman of MLB Network noted yesterday on Twitter that the Braves and Phillies “could be a fit,” though it’s not clear whether that suggestive phrasing was indicative of dialogue between the organizations.
NL East Rumblings: Rendon, Nats, Martinez, Cespedes, Mets, Hatcher
Now that Stephen Strasburg has been re-signed to an expectations-shattering $245MM contract, it doesn’t seem like the Nationals could manage another mega-deal to bring back Anthony Rendon…or could they? Both Nats GM Mike Rizzo and agent Scott Boras (who represents both Rendon and Strasburg) told MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman and other reporters that the third baseman could still potentially return to Washington, despite owner Mark Lerner’s recent comments about his club not being able to afford both free agents. “Well, when you look at those comments, and then you look at the structure of this particular deal and the structure of deals we’ve had getting up to where we are right now, I think that Mark realizes that there’s ways to fit players in,” Rizzo said, in reference to the deferral-heavy nature of both Strasburg’s contract and several other major Nats contracts in recent years.
Boras also spoke of how Strasburg “directed me to negotiate and create a value, a fair-market value for him, but also a structure that allowed the team to continue at a championship level.” Naturally, it wouldn’t be good business for Boras to create any impression that a wealthy suitor had dropped out of the running for Rendon, though the fact that he has had such a long history of negotiating deals with the Nationals perhaps gives his comments some added weight. “I think when you go to do these contracts — in fairness to Mark and everyone else — is you really don’t know what can be done inside a contract to create opportunities so that aspects of the team can be looked at a little differently than was even anticipated,” Boras said.
More rumblings from around the NL East…
- Not that a World Series-winning manager should necessarily be worried about job security, but Dave Martinez tells NBC Sports Washington’s Todd Dybas that he isn’t concerned about entering the final guaranteed year of his contract. The Nationals hold a club option on Martinez for the 2021 season, though just making through 2020 would make Martinez (somewhat incredibly) the first person to manage three full seasons for the Nats since the club moved from Montreal prior to the 2005 season. Martinez didn’t give any indication of extension talks, though even with the Nationals’ unusual history of managerial hirings and firings, it looks like stability might have finally come to the dugout.
- Yoenis Cespedes is hoping to return to the field in 2020, and Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo) that the outfielder has begun throwing and running programs. A series of leg injuries forced Cespedes to miss the entire 2019 season, and limited him to just 119 games in 2017-18. Naturally, Van Wagenen was cautious about the possibility of a comeback for the outfielder, saying “We have to be smart and not assume anything from anyone and try to create talent on our roster and try to create impact. If he’s at his best, he’s a high-impact performer. We’ll have to see how that plays out.”
- In other news from Van Wagenen’s media briefing, he said finding depth for both the rotation or bullpen is a main focus for the Mets. The club may also look at adding a backup infielder and backup catcher. The latter could spell some trouble for current backup catcher Tomas Nido, who was one of the game’s better defensive catchers in 2019 but hasn’t shown any hitting prowess during his three MLB seasons (albeit over only 244 career plate appearances).
- The Marlins have hired Billy Hatcher as the team’s new first base coach, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports. Hatcher brings 21 years of coaching experience to Miami, after long stints with both the Rays (1998-2005) and Reds (2006-18). Trey Hillman will move from first base coach across the diamond to coach third base next season, to accommodate Hatcher. In other Marlins staff news, assistant hitting coach Eric Duncan has been promoted to hitting coach.