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Harper & Machado Rumors: 1/9/19

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The free agent market as a whole is moving at a plodding rate. Somewhat surprisingly, perhaps, there also hasn’t been a ton of action surrounding superstar free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Of course, with so much money at stake, perhaps it shouldn’t come as a shock that both players are taking some time to work out new deals.

The latest …

  • Heyman now indicates that Machado’s camp is looking not only for a $300MM+ offer but is still seeking a total guarantee that tops Giancarlo Stanton’s $325MM record (Twitter links). Furthermore, he adds that while there’s been no indication from the Yankees that they’re formally out of the running for Machado, New York has not yet made an offer and isn’t willing to go anywhere all that close to $300MM in order to sign Machado. Obviously, all of that can change quickly with one decision from ownership, but it’s not an encouraging update for Yankees fans hoping to see Machado in the Bronx in 2019 and beyond.

Earlier Updates

  • Machado is still looking for an offer in excess of $300MM, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). The White Sox and Phillies are the only two teams known to have made formal proposals, neither of which have reached that value. Of course, the Philadelphia organization is reportedly set to put in another offer, the details of which remain unknown. The Yankees have also still yet to officially put anything on the table for Machado, Heyman adds.
  • Will there be significant movement? If so, when and by what mechanism? MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand hears that the markets for Machado and Harper are “heating up.” As his sources have it, the Phillies are “turning up” their efforts for the former, while the Nationals have “momentum building” to bring back the latter. Bruce Levine of 670theScore.com also cites a sense of market movement, but he hears it’s the White Sox who are gaining “momentum” on Machado. Levine also mentions a fourth, unknown potential suitor for Machado, though Heyman claims there’s “still no word” of a shadowy pursuer.
  • Generally, there’s still a dearth of hard information on the various teams’ stances regarding these players. It’s still easy to imagine the negotiations evolving in any number of different ways. Still, it’s striking that so few teams appear to be involved. The entire situation is a “disgrace,” Jim Bowden of The Athletic argues (subscription link). He ticks through a variety of ballclubs that should be able to fit $30MM+ salaries and have cause to be involved, decrying a market situation in which “essentially just four teams [are] legitimately bidding for the game’s two best free agents.” On the same note, Jonah Keri of CBS Sports provides some anonymous opinions on the matter from well-placed league executives. There seems to be at least something of a consensus that teams are less interested than ever in exceedingly lengthy contracts, even for players of such relative youth, with a variety of other theories batted around regarding this duo in particular. The story also delves into broader market topics and is well worth a read.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/8/19

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We’ll track the day’s minor moves with this post …

  • The Nationals are in agreement on a minor league contract with corner infielder/outfielder Brandon Snyder, tweets Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. The 32-year-old journeyman went 1-for-6 in a brief cup of coffee with the Rays this past season and is a career .240/.276/.455 hitter with nine homers, 14 doubles and a triple in 211 Major League plate appearances. Since debuting with the Orioles back in 2010, the former No. 13 overall pick has played first base, third base and both outfield corners at the MLB level.

Earlier Moves

  • Righty Rob Wooten is returning to the Reds on a minor-league deal, he announced. Brandon Warne of Zone Coverage first tweeted the news. Wooten will be back for a third season in the Cincinnati org, though he hasn’t yet appeared at the MLB level since a three-season run with the Brewers. Wooten has only thrown 40 2/3 minor-league innings over the past two seasons while battling injuries.
  • Likewise, right-hander Aaron Northcraft has confirmed that he’s going to the Mariners on a minor-league arrangement. The 28-year-old is seeking to make a comeback after turning in a solid showing in the Venezuelan Winter League. He has allowed just three earned runs over 17 2/3 innings while compiling 17 strikeouts against nine walks. The former tenth-round pick never made it to the bigs in his first effort but will try to jump start his career this spring. He was previously shipped to the Padres along with Justin Upton in the 2014 blockbuster with the Braves.
  • The Indians have added southpaw Hector Hernandez on a minors pact, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Soon to turn 28, Hernandez is another former tenth-round draft choice who hasn’t yet appeared at the MLB level. Indeed, he only briefly touched Triple-A before dropping out of affiliated ball following the 2016 season. Still, it seems he caught someone’s eye with his winter efforts in his native Puerto Rico.

NL Notes: Harper, Machado, Rendon, Cubs, Mets

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As outfielder Bryce Harper prepares to sit down with the Phillies, still-early intrigue seems to be brewing in his market. Notably, the Philadelphia organization has yet to make any formal offers to Harper, per NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury, who notes it’s still not certain whether the team will do so. As has long been rumored, Manny Machado is still the apparent top choice of the Phils brass. Notably, per Salisbury, the club is “expected to make another offer” to Machado this week as his own market continues to develop.

  • Of course, Harper’s long-time club in D.C. still has interest in a reunion, with some intriguing recent information emerging of late. But that drama may be overshadowing an equally important aspect of the Nationals’ offseason: the possibility of a deal with pending free agent Anthony Rendon. As Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post writes, this Friday’s deadline to swap arbitration salary submissions may push the sides to think hard about the broader contractual situation. If talks on a long-term deal are progressing, perhaps the sides won’t bother trying to nail down a 2019 salary at this point. If not, they could well focus more energy on settling on an arb number before the exchange deadline. Beyond that, of course, there’s the question of Harper’s status and how it’ll tie into that of Rendon — who’s also a client of agent Scott Boras.
  • If all that’s not intriguing enough, the conflicting signals surrounding the Cubs’ interest in Harper remain an oddity of the winter. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic weighs in on the matter in a subscription post, suggesting there’s no reason to believe there’s a match. Indeed, per Rosenthal, the Chicago front office is so strapped for 2019 payroll space that it more or less can’t make any further acquisitions without clearing the cash to do so. The example he gives is reliever Adam Warren, the former Cubs hurler who performed better after his departure from the club. While Warren is certainly deserving of a MLB job and guaranteed money, there’s no reason to think he’ll be a particularly expensive player. As Rosenthal notes, there are still some available ways for the Cubs to clear salary space, though most would seem to involve weakening the MLB roster. Affording Harper, then, would seemingly require a change of heart from ownership or some true creativity.
  • As Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen continues to tinker with the club’s 40-man roster, Rosenthal adds, it’s possible there’ll be a few more departures. Backstops Travis d’Arnaud and Tomas Nido have drawn interest and could follow Kevin Plawecki out the door. In such a scenario, it seems, the Mets would go onto the open market for another catcher. Dumping d’Arnaud would have the added benefit of clearing some real payroll space, though obviously a replacement would cost something as well.
  • Notably, as he continues to seek ways to upgrade the Mets bullpen, Van Wagenen seems largely to have run through his available funds, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter link). It seems the organization will mostly be bargain-hunting the rest of the way. That also explains the fact that the Mets have seemingly bowed out of the market for expensive outfielders. Per Andy Martino of SNY.tv, via Twitter, the club isn’t shopping Juan Lagares in trades — though a deal still hasn’t been ruled out entirely — and expects him to line up in center field, where he’ll be supplemented by the just-acquired Keon Broxton. Presumably, Broxton will also spell the team’s left-handed-hitting corner outfielders as well.

Nationals Latest Offer To Bryce Harper Reportedly “Much More” Than $300MM

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The twists and turns keep coming in the public on-again off-again courtship between the Washington Nationals and free agent outfielder Bryce Harper. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweeted last night that the Nationals latest offer to Harper was actually “much more” than the $300MM commonly quoted. Per Bowden, the 10-year, $300MM offer was merely the first offer the Nationals made to their erstwhile superstar. The offer as stated – seen by many as the low-end of what Harper might expect – has been the single biggest signifier that the Nats are ready to move on from Harper, but the ongoing entanglement between the two sides is evidently more complex.

There’s lots to read into this, of course, especially given recent rumblings about Harper. In the context of the White Sox being unwilling to move beyond a 7-year bid, sources from 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine said that Harper has multiple ten-year offers in hand. Presumably, this meant offers from multiple teams, but given the lack of specifics, we have been left to speculate about which teams might have already extended such a deal.

The Cubs are keeping tabs, but it doesn’t appear as if they’ve made an offer. The Phillies would be most people’s guess, but Harper himself didn’t attend Philly’s initial chat with Scott Boras during the winter meetings, which could presume it was more of a “testing of the waters” type precursor to the face-to-face meeting planned with Harper this week. There were mixed reports about the Dodgers meeting with Harper early in December, but besides the hailstorm of rumors set off by the Puig-Kemp trade, there hasn’t been much concrete linkage between the two sides since. The juiciest bit of news has been the recent report of a five-hour meeting just before Christmas between Harper, Boras, and Nationals owner Ted Lerner. Matter of fact, Levine’s mention of ten-year “offers” could just as easily refer to multiple ten-year offers from the Nationals. Combine that with Bowden’s tweet from last night and it’s hard not to put the Nats in pole position at this stage. Still, until something more concrete comes from Harper’s camp, the best we have is conjecture.

East Notes: Harper, Cespedes, O’s, Perez, Yankees, Tulo

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Bryce Harper and agent Scott Boras had a five-hour meeting with Nationals owner Ted Lerner on December 22, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports.  Sources from within the team declined to confirm that such a meeting took place, which Janes describes as “a departure from their relative openness about their status with Harper this winter.”  One possibility is that Lerner held the meeting without informing anyone else in the organization, which Janes notes “has happened before,” though it could be that the front office is keeping quiet on details either as a gamesmanship tactic (to drive up Harper’s price for other teams), or because an ardent pursuit of the free agent outfielder is underway.

This is the latest twist in the perhaps-ongoing courtship between Harper and the Nats, as ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reported earlier today that Harper had had “multiple” meetings with team representatives.  Boras and Lerner have a longstanding professional relationship that has resulted in several high-profile Boras Corporation clients (i.e. Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer) sign extensions or free agent deals with Washington.  Boras has also often bypassed general managers to negotiate directly with ownership in some particularly major contracts, and he has signaled this intent in regards to Harper’s market this offseason.

Some more from around both the NL East and AL East…

  • There had already been some indication that the Mets weren’t expecting Yoenis Cespedes to play in 2019 as the outfielder recovers from a pair of heel surgeries, and special assistant Omar Minaya reiterated as much in an interview on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (hat tip to MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo).  “If [Cespedes] gives us anything this year, that is great, we’re happy for that,” Minaya said.  Cespedes’ first procedure in late July carried a rough timeline of eight-to-ten months before a return to baseball activities, and no update to that timetable was made after Cespedes underwent his second surgery in late October.  Cespedes has long been plagued by a variety of lower-body injuries, and since signing a four-year, $110MM deal with the Mets prior to the 2017 season, the outfielder has played in just 119 games.  As it stands, New York’s starting outfield consists of Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo in the corners, Juan Lagares in center field, and the newly-acquired Rajai Davis as the fourth outfielder.  The Mets have been linked to other outfielders on the rumor mill, however, so it is quite possible more changes could come before Opening Day.
  • The Orioles have hired Koby Perez as the team’s new Senior Director of international scouting, as per a team press release.  The 40-year-old Perez spent the last three seasons as the Indians’ director of Latin American scouting, his most recent stop in a career that has spanned 12 seasons and included roles as a crosschecker and scout with Cleveland, Philadelphia, and St. Louis (Perez and Orioles GM Mike Elias both worked as scouts in the Cardinals’ organization for two years).  Under his new title, as per the press release, “Perez will oversee all aspects of the Orioles’ international scouting operations and management of the club’s bonus pool.”  The Orioles have been notoriously indifferent to the international market for years, though this focus began to change even prior to Elias’ hiring, as Baltimore made a strong attempt to sign both the Mesa brothers and Sandy Gaston this fall.  Going forward, it certainly seems as if the O’s will now be as aggressive and thorough in locating and signing international prospects as any club in the sport.
  • The Yankees’ signing of Troy Tulowitzki doesn’t mean the team is out on Manny Machado by any means, Joel Sherman of the New York Post opines as part of a seven-tweet thread (all linked here).  That said, the Yankees wouldn’t publicize being out of the Machado sweepstakes anyway, as such a statement would violate Collective Bargaining Agreement rules about teams weighing in on free agents.  It also makes strategic sense for the Yankees to at least appear to still be in on Machado, if for no other reason than to force rival teams to spend more to sign him.  If Machado indeed doesn’t land in New York, Sherman feels the Yankees could address their infield needs by signing a player like Neil Walker or Adeiny Hechavarria to provide short-term help until Didi Gregorius is able to return.  Sherman suggests that infield help could also be found as part of a Sonny Gray trade package.

Passan’s Latest: Harper, Profar, Gray, Ray, Grandal, Pollock, Ender

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It’s too soon to count out a reunion between Bryce Harper and the Nationals, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan writes in his latest column, as “Harper has met multiple times with representatives” from the team.  In a rather surprisingly open interview last month, Nats managing principal owner Mark Lerner said his organization wasn’t willing to go beyond the ten-year, $300MM extension it offered Harper after the season, though rumors have continued to swirl that Washington is still at least monitoring Harper’s market.  It could still be some time before we have an answer about Harper’s 2019 destination, as the outfielder (like many Scott Boras clients) is in no rush to sign a contract that doesn’t meet his satisfaction.  The Phillies and White Sox, Passan reports, are willing to guarantee Harper at least a ten-year deal, indicating that the two teams have at least made some progress in their pursuit of the free agent outfielder, though obviously the gigantic dollar figure Harper is demanding is still a very notable obstacle.

Some more hot stove items from Passan….

  • Before the Rangers dealt Jurickson Profar to the Athletics as part of a three-team trade with the Rays, Texas also explored another three-team scenario involving the Yankees and Braves.  “There was traction, at one point,” Passan writes about a deal that would have seen the Yankees get Profar, the Braves get Sonny Gray, and Texas would have received a prospect (presumably from Atlanta’s farm system).
  • The Diamondbacks would only consider trading Robbie Ray for a very big return, with Passan noting that Arizona would want more for Ray than the Mariners received from the Yankees for James Paxton back in November.  While both Ray and Paxton are front-of-the-rotation southpaws with two remaining years of team control, Ray is almost three full years younger than Paxton, which would explain Arizona’s higher asking price.  That deal saw Seattle land an MLB-ready pitching prospect (Justus Sheffield), another young arm on the brink of the majors (Erik Swanson) and a promising lower-level position player (outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams).  It’s a steep price tag, though at least two teams with a lot of minor league depth have been linked to Ray in trade rumors.
  • News broke last week that Yasmani Grandal turned down a four-year, $60MM offer from the Mets, though Passan says that such an offer was “never officially presented,” and that the terms were “characterized by sources on both sides as more of a discussion.”  Grandal’s market seems a little uncertain right now, due to the number of catcher-needy teams who have already found other backstops, and the looming presence of J.T. Realmuto on the trade market.  With draft pick compensation via the qualifying offer hanging over Grandal’s services, there is some threat of Grandal becoming (in the words of one executive) “this year’s version of Mike Moustakas,” i.e. a QO free agent whose market thins to the point that he is forced to accept a one-year contract.  Grandal accepting a one-year deal “remains unlikely but not out of question,” as per Passan, though the catcher and his camp are reportedly “staying patient” that a satisfactory multi-year deal will eventually surface.
  • A.J. Pollock is one of many big-name free agents whose markets may not get moving until Harper and/or Manny Machado sign new contracts.  As Passan notes, Pollock is a good fit for both the Phillies and White Sox, though those teams are more likely to focus on Harper and Machado before turning to backup plans.  Three executive tell Passan that Pollock’s situation bears similarity to Lorenzo Cain last winter, who had to wait until late January to find a new contract, though his market quickly heated up to the point that he was able to land a hefty five-year, $80MM deal from the Brewers.
  • We heard during the Winter Meetings about the Reds’ interest in Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte, though Passan writes that “talks stagnated” between the two sides, and Cincinnati then pivoted to acquire outfield help in the form of Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp.  Neither of those two are viable center field options, of course, so the Reds remain on the hunt for a replacement for Billy Hamilton.

East Notes: Manny, Yankees, Mets, Pollock, Britton, Nats

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A few notes from the East Coast, where the first day of 2019 is nearing an end…

  • Free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper raised eyebrows on social media last month when he “liked” an Instagram post relating to the Dodgers. Not to be outdone, fellow superstar free agent Manny Machado may have hinted about his own future plans on Instagram, as Jon Heyman of Fancred point outed out on Monday. Machado began following the YES Network, which broadcasts most Yankees games and which the franchise owns a portion of, only to quickly unfollow it when people took notice. Machado’s apparent interest in YES may be much ado about nothing, but for the moment, it has added a bit of intrigue to what looks like a three-horse race for his services.
  • Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen “remains engaged” on the trade market, according to the New York Post’s Mike Puma, who reports the team is seeking an outfielder, a reliever (preferably a lefty), starting pitching depth and a backup infielder. Signing free-agent outfielder A.J. Pollock would address one of those needs, though Van Wagenen implied last month that wouldn’t happen, and Puma hears the Mets are leery of giving the 31-year-old a big contract. Similarly, the Mets are “unlikely” to go after lefty reliever Zach Britton in free agency, Puma writes.
  • With the Nationals gearing up for the arrival of prospect Carter Kieboom, they may not sign a free-agent second baseman to anything more than a one-year deal, Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic suggests (subscription required). The Nationals have shown interest in free agent DJ LeMahieu, but because he’s seeking a multiyear deal, there might not be a match between the sides. Free agent Brian Dozier, who could be in line for a one-year pact, would be a better fit, Ghiroli posits. The club has also expressed interest in Dozier this winter.

NL Notes & Rumors: Nats, Marwin, Jed, Pads, Fish, J.T., Braves, D-backs

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Free agents Marwin Gonzalez and Jed Lowrie are among several second basemen the Nationals have reached out to this offseason, Jamal Collier of MLB.com reports. The open market remains rife with familiar second basemen as the New Year approaches, though Gonzalez and Lowrie are likely the two best choices available. Both Gonzalez and Lowrie are accomplished switch-hitters, but the former is easily the more versatile of the two in the field. Gonzalez is capable of lining up everywhere in the infield and in both corner outfield positions. The Nationals, of course, will take a hit in the corner outfield if free agent Bryce Harper signs elsewhere, so Gonzalez would give them some more depth in the grass.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • The Padres, who are known to be in the hunt for the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto, have shown more persistence than any other team in talks for the catcher, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. With two years of control left and Miami nowhere near contention, Realmuto could be the most obvious trade candidate in the game. However, the Marlins may have to lower their asking price in order for a deal to come together prior to next season. They’re said to want a return consisting of at least one elite prospect, and the Padres happen to boast baseball’s top-ranked farm system, per both Baseball America and FanGraphs. So, if the Padres are truly motivated to land Realmuto, they may be in better position than anyone else. That said, San Diego would not be a popular bet to contend in 2019 even with Realmuto, making it highly debatable whether the team should rob from its system in a win-now trade.
  • Given the needs in the Braves’ corner outfield and pitching staff, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that they and the Diamondbacks could be logical trade partners. Outfielder David Peralta, left-hander Robbie Ray and righty Zack Greinke may all be fits for the Braves, O’Brien posits, though he notes the Diamondbacks would have to eat a significant portion of the $95.5MM left on Greinke’s contract to make him a realistic possibility for Atlanta. There are no weighty financial obligations for either Peralta or Ray, who are each under affordable arbitration control through 2020. The Braves have already come up short in an attempt to acquire Peralta this offseason, though, and the D-backs don’t seem willing to part with Ray.
  • Sticking with the Braves, they may pursue free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel if he becomes willing to accept a three-year offer, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com. That looks rather unlikely, however, considering Kimbrel’s current asking price reportedly ranges anywhere from $86MM to upward of $100M. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to see the Braves in the race for Kimbrel, whom they drafted in 2008 and helped develop into one of the greatest closers ever. Kimbrel, now 30, was a Brave from 2010-14 before moving on to the Padres and Red Sox.

Market Notes: Cruz, Harper, Kluber, Bauer, Ottavino, Harrison

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Prior to this morning’s agreement with the Twins, slugger Nelson Cruz received “competitive” offers from both the Rays and Astros, according to Juan Toribio of The Athletic (Twitter link) and Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Specifics aren’t known, but it seems likely that the Twins would’ve had to outbid either by a fairly notable margin, given that the Rays won 90 games last season while the Astros won the 2017 World Series and appeared in a second consecutive American League Championship Series this past season. Minnesota ultimately secured Cruz with a $14.3MM bid that includes a $14MM salary for the 2019 season and a $12MM club option ($300K buyout) for the 2020 campaign. If Houston or Tampa Bay is still keen on adding a notable right-handed bat, there should be numerous options in play. The rebuilding Tigers, for instance, would likely be willing to move Nicholas Castellanos as he enters his final season of club control. The Cardinals, meanwhile, could move Jose Martinez to an American League club that’d be better suited to mask his defensive shortcomings at the DH spot.

Some more notes on the both the trade and free-agent markets…

  • The Cardinals have been an oft-speculated landing spot for Bryce Harper but have not been rumored to have any meaningful interest in the market’s top free agent. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explored the situation in his latest Q&A with readers, explaining the numerous reasons that the Cardinals feel a pursuit of Harper would differ from their prior pursuits of huge contracts for David Price, Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton. Above all else, it seems that the sizable discrepancy between Harper’s asking price and even those other substantial contracts is a roadblock for the St. Louis front office. The Cards also don’t have the personal connection with Harper that they had after a year of having Heyward in the clubhouse, and they’re generally averse to the leverage that opt-out clauses provide players on lengthy free-agent deals.
  • In an appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove this morning, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com downplayed the possibility of the Indians trading a top starter (video link). “I don’t think it’s particularly likely they move either Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer at this moment,” said Castrovince, citing sources with the Indians. While he cautioned that things can change with a single call or text, the roughly $21MM saved in trades of Yan Gomes, Edwin Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso has alleviated pressure to pare back payroll from its record levels in a 2018 season that saw the total attendance decline. That, of course, doesn’t mean rumors or conversations surrounding Kluber will cease — they assuredly will not — but it’s worth keeping in mind when parsing the inevitable continuation of Kluber rumblings. More than 18,000 readers voted in last night’s MLBTR poll asking whether Cleveland would actually trade Kluber, and the response was a near-even split (52-48 in favor of Kluber being moved).
  • The White Sox, Red Sox and Rockies are all maintaining some level of interest in free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. As one of the top relievers on the market, the 33-year-old Ottavino should have no shortage of clubs inquiring about his services, though the asking price on top-end bullpen arms could prove prohibitive for some clubs. To this point, Jeurys Familia (three years, $30MM), Joe Kelly (three years, $25MM) and Andrew Miller (two years, $25MM) are among the relievers MLBTR ranked in Ottavino’s tier of free agency to have cashed in quite nicely. Given his 2.43 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 2.82 SIERA and 13.0 K/9 mark, Ottavino figures to have a fairly high ask, as well. The interest from each of the three teams listed by Morosi has been previously reported, and there are some issues with some of the fits. Adding Ottavino, for instance, could push the Red Sox back into the top tier of the luxury tax bracket. And the Rockies spent more than $100MM on their ’pen last winter, which could make them reluctant to add a fourth reliever on the type of multi-year contract Ottavino should ultimately command.
  • Heyman tweets that infielder/outfielder Josh Harrison has current interest from the Nationals, Reds, Rangers, Giants and Brewers, and he could ultimately generate interest from teams like the Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers — depending on how their pursuits of the market’s top free agents pans out. (Presumably, the Phillies or Yankees would have interest in the event that either failed to land Manny Machado.) Harrison would give the Nats a potential regular option at second base, while the Rangers are in need of a third baseman following the trade of Jurickson Profar. Joe Panik’s stock is down in San Francisco, and the Brewers, too, are in need of an everyday option at either second or third (depending on where they play Travis Shaw in 2019). The fit for the Reds is a bit more muddied, as Harrison would appear to be more of a bench option there, though it’s worth noting that he is a Cincinnati native.

Nationals Sign Anibal Sanchez

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The Nationals on Thursday announced the signing of free-agent righty Anibal Sanchez, to a two-year contract with a club option for a third season. Sanchez is said to be guaranteed $19MM on the contract, which reportedly contains some relatively minimal deferrals. Sanchez is represented by agent Gene Mato.

Anibal Sanchez | Courtesy of Nationals Communications

Sanchez, 35 in February, will reportedly earn a $6MM salary in 2019, $7MM in 2020 and will have the additional $6MM of his $19MM guarantee deferred to 2021. That leaves the Nats with more financial breathing room as they look to continue adding to the 2019 roster, although it doesn’t lower the luxury tax hit that comes with Sanchez’s contract. The 2021 club option is valued at $12MM, and Sanchez can reportedly earn another $4MM of incentives.

Sanchez steps into the rotation spot that was recently vacated when Tanner Roark was traded to the Reds. While Sanchez, it seems, won’t come to the Nats at a significantly lower rate than the $9.8MM at which Roark was projected (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). However, unlike Roark, who exhibited numerous red flags in 2018 (e.g. diminished velocity, strikeout, home-run and ground-ball rates), Sanchez enjoyed a legitimate renaissance with the Braves in 2018 and looks in many regards to be trending back up.

After joining the Braves on a minor league contract in Spring Training, the veteran Sanchez not only worked his way onto the roster but emerged as one of Atlanta’s most reliable arms. In 136 2/3 innings, the former Marlins/Tigers hurler worked to a terrific 2.83 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.99 HR/9 and a 45 percent ground-ball rate.

While Sanchez undoubtedly has his skeptics given the dreadful manner in which his time with the Tigers ended, a look at his secondary metrics and pitch selection gives every reason to continue to be optimistic in 2019. Sanchez dramatically ramped up the usage of his cutter this past season, leading to increases in both his swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates. Where Sanchez truly shined, however, was not necessarily in terms of missing bats (though his strikeout rate was strong) but rather in terms of generating weak contact. Per Statcast data, no qualified starting pitcher in baseball had a lower average exit velocity on balls in play than Sanchez, and no pitcher in the game allowed less hard contact than the minuscule 25.8 percent clip that Sanchez yielded.

Clearly, the Nationals are buying the new and improved version of Sanchez. While there’s likely some regression in store — it’s not reasonable to expect him to replicate a league-best ability to minimize hard contact, and Sanchez did benefit from both a 79 percent strand rate and .255 average on balls in play — at two years and a total of $19MM, the Nats aren’t exactly paying him to be the dominant buzzsaw that he was in Atlanta this past season. If Sanchez can even function as a competent mid-rotation piece, that’d be a more than acceptable price to pay. And, if he outperforms Roark by any appreciable sum, then the decision to jettison him in favor of Sanchez will look all the more shrewd, given the comparable salary figures.

[Related: Updated Washington Nationals depth chart and Nationals payroll outlook]

Sanchez will slot into the Nationals’ rotation behind a stacked top three that features three-time Cy Young winner/future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, former No. 1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg and 2018 breakout star Patrick Corbin — another offseason addition for general manager Mike Rizzo and his staff. That quartet, paired with one of Joe Ross, Erick Fedde or perhaps another yet-to-be-acquired starting pitcher, should comprise one of the game’s most formidable starting staffs as the Nationals look to reemerge as contenders in an increasingly difficult division on the heels of a down year for the organization.

From a 2019 payroll vantage point, this deal won’t likely change much from the way things looked a week ago, prior to the trade of Roark, and the same is largely true with regard to the Nationals’ luxury tax ledger. As such, the addition of Sanchez shouldn’t have any impact on the Nationals’ ability to make another run at retaining Bryce Harper, though recent comments from managing principal owner Mark Lerner suggest that Harper’s time with the Nats may indeed be up.

If that’s indeed the case, the organization will have essentially spread out much of the money that could’ve gone to Harper across a number of offseason additions, having already signed Corbin, Sanchez, Kurt Suzuki and Trevor Rosenthal in addition to trading for Kyle Barraclough and Yan Gomes. With Sanchez now in the fold, the Nationals project at just north of $200MM in terms of both actual 2019 payroll and luxury tax payroll. That leaves about $6MM to work with to remain under the luxury barrier, though they exceeded that threshold last season, so there’s clearly no ownership mandate not to cross that point.

Sanchez’s deal may seem steep to some, given the lasting impression from his final years in Detroit. However, the general parameters of this contract align with the two years and $22MM forecast on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent rankings/contract predictions. For those who played along in MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction Contest, just 1.88 percent of participants correctly pegged Sanchez as a future National.

Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press broke the news that Sanchez was signing with the Nats (Twitter links). Fancred’s Jon Heyman added information on the third-year option (Twitter links), and Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweeted the yearly breakdown of the contract.

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