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Early Rumors On The Bryce Harper Market

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Bryce Harper’s free agency — or, as agent Scott Boras termed at the GM Meetings today, “Harper’s Bazaar” — will be one of the most fascinating storylines the 2018-19 offseason has to offer. Boras has already made clear that he’ll be marketing Harper as a future Hall of Famer, given that the few players who’ve reached Harper’s level of production prior to the age of 26 are virtually all enshrined in Cooperstown. Boras doubled down on that thinking today when holding court with upwards of 100 reporters (link, with video, via SNY’s Scott Thompson).

Boras tabbed Harper as a “generational” and “iconic” player — citing the Nationals’ stark increase in attendance, television ratings and overall franchise value since Harper joined the team. While Harper’s presence on the Nats is realistically one of the myriad factors that have effected those changes, those types of milestones could very well carry more weight with some franchise owners than with baseball operations leaders.

As we settle in for the beginning of Harper’s Bazaar — which, in case you were wondering, is “fashionable,” “elite,” “historical” and “has inspirations that deal with great shoes and great hair,” according to Boras — here’s the latest chatter on his market…

  • Fancred’s Jon Heyman spoke with Boras this morning, and while the agent wouldn’t tip his hand much in terms of total asking price, he did suggest that players with Harper’s level of accolades at this age often play until they’re 40. That, Heyman notes, could indicate that Boras is seeking a deal as long as 14 years in length for the 26-year-old Harper. The agent also pointed out that the current record average annual value — Zack Greinke’s $34.4MM — went to “a 32-year-old pitcher.” None of that, of course, offers a clear indication as to what Boras is thinking as a viable goal for Harper, though that’s perhaps largely by design. MLBTR estimated a 14-year contract for Harper in our annual Top 50 Free Agents rankings — albeit at a considerably lower annual value than that of Greinke.
  • The Nationals’ reported offer to Harper near the end of the season, said to be valued at around a $300MM guarantee, “wasn’t close” to getting the job done, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Boras spoke today about the immense surplus value the Nats reaped from Harper’s pre-arbitration and arbitration seasons and suggested that comparisons to Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year, $325MM deal have “nothing to do with Bryce Harper.” While many fans grow weary of Boras’ colorful quotes, it’s also a valid point that an extension signed two years prior to a fellow star-caliber player’s free agency should carry much influence over Harper’s eventual contract. Extensions for Stanton and fellow superstar Jose Altuve ($30MM annual value) were signed without the benefit of open-market bidding, Boras noted, and thus shouldn’t be viewed as comparables when looking at Harper’s earning power.
  • Heyman further tweets that the Nats’ ~$300MM is currently “off the table,” though the team has still not ruled out signing Harper and would welcome the opportunity for further negotiations — which Boras will surely oblige.
  • Both ESPN’s Buster Olney and SNY’s Andy Martino throw cold water on the notion of Harper landing with the Yankees. Olney tweets that a source has “emphatically” told him that Harper to the Yankees is simply “not happening,” while Martino suggests that the Yankees “are not excited enough about Harper” to force the ensuing outfield logjam that would come with signing him (Twitter link, with video).
  • USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that many executives and agents throughout the industry feel that Harper will ultimately land with the Phillies, though that opinion appears largely predicated on a belief that the Yankees (and not the Phillies) will ultimately sign Manny Machado — a scenario that is entirely plausible but is by no means a given at this stage of the offseason. It’s always interesting to hear where the popular industry opinion lies at a given time, though it’s often best taken with a grain of salt; there were similar columns written regarding the Yankees and Eric Hosmer this time a year ago, for instance.
  • The Giants have been an oft-suggested landing spot for Harper over the past several seasons, but Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area cites multiple sources in calling the interest “overblown.” One Giants exec tells Pavlovic that the team is “shocked” to be so frequently connected to Harper, adding that the Giants would only be in play for the outfielder if he “really, really” wanted to be a Giant and spurned larger offers elsewhere.

Nationals Made “Aggressive” Extension Offer To Harper Near End Of Season

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TODAY: The offer would have included an approximately $300MM guarantee over a ten-year span, Janes adds on Twitter. That offer is “no longer on the table,” per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, though that is not to say that the sides will not engage in further discussions.

YESTERDAY: The Nationals made an “aggressive” offer to Bryce Harper prior to the end of the season that he clearly did not accept, Chelsea Janes and Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post report. The deal didn’t contain any opt-outs and was for under $400MM in total value, per Janes, although USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the arrangement would’ve promised Harper “about” $30MM annually on a long-term pact. Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that the formal offer came on Sept. 26 — the day of the Nationals’ final home game of the season.

Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo had little to say on the matter, as one might expect, but Janes notes that Rizzo did acknowledge the Nationals’ effort to take advantage of the now-expired exclusive negotiating window teams have with their own free agents in the five days that follow the World Series. MLB.com’s Jamal Collier further tweets that Rizzo implied that the team is not yet giving up on retaining Harper. “He’s our guy,” said Rizzo. “So we’re looking forward to seeing what can transpire.” Janes and Svrluga add that the offer made to Harper was not a token offer and that the front office has “genuine interest” in keeping the slugger.

Details on the length of the offer aren’t clear, but given the annual salary referenced by Nightengale, it’s all but assured that the deal would’ve promised Harper well north of $200MM and quite possibly $300MM or more. At present, Giancarlo Stanton’s record-setting 13-year, $325MM contract is not only the largest and longest contract in history — it’s also the only $300MM+ contract ever signed. It’s reasonable to assume that Harper and agent Scott Boras have their sight set on Harper eclipsing that record and establishing a new precedent.

Boras didn’t blatantly say as much today, but he did express on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio) that he plans to pitch Harper as a future Hall of Famer, noting that Harper is only the fourth player to reach free agency at age 25 since 1980 (though technically he turned 26 between season’s end and formally filing for free agency). Boras cited various career-to-date milestones, such as his 180 home runs, that align with the numbers that several Hall of Famers reached at the same point in their own careers. He also told MLB Network Radio’s Casey Stern (Twitter link) that Harper “has the feet, hands and skill to certainly adapt to first base” should a team ever deem it necessary.

Harper’s .249/.393/.496 slash line translated to a 135 wRC+ — that is to say, his overall offensive output was 35 percent better than a league-average bat when weighted for home park and league. That tied Harper for 15th in baseball, and he ranks eighth among MLB hitters (143) since the start of the 2017 season by that same measure. Defensive metrics, meanwhile, were alarmingly bearish on Harper in 2018 despite the fact that he typically rated as a plus defender in prior seasons.

Though Boras has a reputation for finding colorful ways to embellish the value of his clients, there’s also some degree of truth to the fact that Harper (and fellow free agent Manny Machado) is a in rarefied air as a free agent at this stage in the career. The former No. 1 overall pick and NL MVP is reaching free agency at the same age at which Aaron Judge embarked on his sophomore season, for instance. Realistically, there hasn’t been a 26-year-old free agent with the ceiling of Harper or Machado since Alex Rodriguez reached the open market and signed a then-jaw-dropping 10-year, $252MM contract with the Rangers. A-Rod was, incredibly, a year younger than Harper when he hit the open market and was also more accomplished, but the very fact that it’s been nearly two decades since a hitter of this caliber reached free agency at this age is telling when looking at the type of contract Boras and Harper will likely pursue over the next few months.

Nationals Sign Trevor Rosenthal

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Nov. 5: Rosenthal will also receive a $1MM assignment bonus each time that is traded over the life of the contract, Heyman tweets.

Nov. 3, 9:40am: The deal is now official, per the team (via Twitter). Rosenthal signs a one-year deal with a conditional option for a second season, tweets the Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty, among others.

12:58pm: Unsurprisingly, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets, it’ll be a MLB deal that’s structured similarly to the contract that Greg Holland signed with the Rockies for the 2016 campaign. Holland, another Boras client and former closer who was returning from Tommy John surgery on a similar timeline, received a $7MM guarantee in his deal, which also included a hefty incentives package and vesting player option.

In this case, Rosenthal will also be promised $7MM, which includes a buyout on the 2020 option. He can earn up to $14MM in salary for the 2019 campaign, through operation of incentives, and the deal includes a vesting player option that will seemingly be valued at $15MM. Sherman (via Twitter), Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter links), and Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link) covered the details.

Of course, it’s relatively rare in these cases that the second season makes sense for both sides. If Rosenthal throws well enough to trigger the player option, he could well end up deciding to test the open market, though that might also mean he’d draw a qualifying offer from the Nats. In any event, those possibilities will certainly depend upon his performance in the season to come.

12:00pm: The Nationals are “finalizing” a contract with free agent right-hander Trevor Rosenthal, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Terms of the prospective agreement are not yet known.

Rosenthal, a client of the Boras Corporation, recently put on a showcase to exhibit his form after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Evidently, he impressed the Washington brass, who’ll take a shot on the hard-throwing former Cardinals late-inning standby.

While it’s not yet clear just what role will be given to Rosenthal, who’s still just 28 years of age, the report suggests he’ll “anchor the bullpen.” Though southpaw Sean Doolittle figures to have the inside track on the ninth inning, given his outstanding (albeit injury-shortened) 2018 showing, the Nats could certainly use Rosenthal as their top set-up option or perhaps get more creative in their pen usage based upon situations.

The chance at high-leverage innings seems to have been a motivating factor for Rosenthal, who said as much in an interesting recent chat with Rob Rains of STLSportsPage.com. Rosenthal also held true to his stated desire to put pen to paper before the start of November.

Rosenthal’s TJ procedure took place in late August of 2017, so he is now already about 14 months out from the operating table. There’s every reason to think that he’ll be a full go for Spring Training, particularly since he has already shown that he’s capable of working in his customary upper-nineties velocity.

Of course, the real question with Rosenthal has never been one of arm strength. He has at times dealt with control issues, dishing out 5.4 walks per nine in the 2014 season and a hefty 6.5 free passes per nine in 2016. That latter campaign was a rough one for the flamethrower: he also surrendered a whopping .425 BABIP, lost his closing job, and ended the season with a 4.46 ERA.

In camp in 2017, Rosenthal dabbled with a return to a starting role — he functioned in that capacity in the minors, but never in the bigs — but ultimately returned to the St. Louis relief corps. Before going down to a torn UCL, Rosenthal threw 47 2/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball with a career-high 14.3 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9. Rosenthal carried a personal-high 15.9% swinging-strike rate for the season, finding an extra gear as he completely abandoned his curve in favor of his slider.

For the Nats, the move represents the second interesting relief addition of the still-early offseason. Previously, the club added Kyle Barracough via trade. These two righties both come with their share of uncertainty, but will unquestionably add a ton of velocity to the Washington pen.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Bryce Harper Vs. Manny Machado

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With free agency now open across Major League Baseball, it’s only a matter of time before we see a pair of players receive the richest contracts in the history of the sport. Outfielder Bryce Harper and shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado, two in-their-prime, Hall of Fame-level talents, figure to dominate headlines as long as they’re unsigned. It seems inevitable that both players will reel in contracts in excess of $300MM, and that may be a conservative estimate. Indeed, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Jeff Todd project Harper to land a 14-year, $420MM pact and Machado to sign a 13-year, $390MM deal. There would be substantial risk in either of those contracts, needless to say, but it’s not every winter that a couple 26-year-old superstars reach free agency.

For a little while longer, the richest free-agent contract in major league history will belong to now-retired third baseman Alex Rodriguez, whom the Yankees re-signed to a 10-year, $275MM accord after the 2007 season. However, a current Yankee, outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, owns the largest deal ever. He signed that contract – a 13-year, $325MM extension – in 2014 as a member of the typically small-spending Marlins, whose new ownership group felt it had no choice but to get Stanton’s money off the books last winter on the heels of an NL MVP-winning season.

It’s now conceivable that the Yankees will sign at least one of Harper or Machado to join Stanton in their lineup, but their interest in/need for either is unclear. Even if the Yankees do chase one or both of those players, they’ll face quite a bit of competition from other teams capable of handing out mega-deals.

Like Stanton, Harper already has an NL MVP on his resume, having won the award in 2015. That still easily ranks as Harper’s best season, but the longtime National has starred in nearly every campaign since he made his much-anticipated debut as a 19-year-old in 2012. Dating back to then, the lefty-swinging Harper ranks 10th in the majors in wRC+ (140, meaning he has been 40 percent better than the average offensive player) and 12th in position player fWAR (30.7, good for 4.6 per 600 plate appearance).

If there are any legitimate knocks on Harper, they may be his defense and injury history. Regarding the former, Harper ranked second to last among all major leaguers this past season in both Defensive Runs Saved (minus-26) and Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-14.4). The defensive struggles he displayed in 2018 may be a reason to worry or simply a fluke, as the metrics viewed Harper as a competent outfielder during his previous seasons. Although Harper didn’t hold his own with the glove in ’18, he did appear in a career-high 159 games. The durability he showed off last season couldn’t have come at a better time for Harper, who missed 51 games in 2017 and whom injuries have limited to fewer than 120 contests two other times.

With the exception of 2014, in which he only played 82 games, availability hasn’t been a problem for Machado. Since 2013, his first full season, Machado has racked up at least 156 appearances on five occasions. He played 162 games this past year, which he divided between the lowly Orioles and the NL-winning Dodgers, and turned in his third campaign with at least 6.0 fWAR.

Going back to ’13, Machado sits seventh among position players in fWAR (29.0, which equals 4.5 per 600 PA), though he hasn’t achieved his value in quite the same way as Harper. From 2013-18, 47 players combined for a higher wRC+ than the righty-hitting Machado’s 121, though that’s still an outstanding number. Furthermore, he happens to be coming off a personal-best offensive campaign (141 wRC+) in which he belted 30-plus home runs (37) for the fourth straight year.

There’s little doubt Machado will continue to be a formidable offensive player in the coming years, but whether he’ll serve as a defensive force could hinge on his position. Machado has been an all-world third baseman throughout his career, yet he prefers shortstop – his primary position in 2018, when he logged minus-13 DRS and minus-6.5 UZR.

The biggest concern with Machado, though, may come down to character. He didn’t leave teams or fans with the best impression during this fall’s postseason, in which he was accused of being a dirty player. He also came under fire in the playoffs for a lack of hustle, including during the Dodgers’ World Series loss to the Red Sox, and admitted to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic in mid-October: “Obviously I’m not going to change, I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ’Johnny Hustle,’ and run down the line and slide to first base and … you know, whatever can happen. That’s just not my personality, that’s not my cup of tea, that’s not who I am.”

That’s not the mindset a team wants from any of its players, let alone a face-of-the-franchise type. Nevertheless, it’s unlikely to deter some club from awarding the incredibly gifted Machado one of the two biggest pacts in baseball history. For better or worse, he and Harper are primed to occupy a massive chunk of their next teams’ payrolls for several years to come. The question is: Which of the two do you believe has a better chance to live up to his next contract?

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nationals Outright Jhonatan Solano

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The Nationals announced today that they have outrighted catcher Jhonatan Solano after he cleared waivers. He rejected a minor-league assignment and elected free agency.

Solano, 33, has seen minimal major-league action over the years. That he was even on the Nats’ 40-man roster was something of an oddity: he was called up briefly early in the season but never played, then ended up on the 60-day DL owing to bone spurs in his elbow.

When the dust settled, Solano ended up sitting out the entire 2018 campaign. In his eight seasons at the Triple-A level, Solano carries a .239/.286/.331 batting line.

Nationals Exercise Sean Doolittle’s 2019 Option

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4:08pm: The Nationals have formally announced the move.

3:15pm: The Nationals have exercised their $6MM club option on left-hander Sean Doolittle, tweets Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. No official announcement has been made just yet, though as Janes notes, it was an obvious call for the Nationals that was never in any doubt.

The 32-year-old Doolittle enjoyed one what was very arguably the finest season of his career in 2018, tossing 45 innings with a minuscule 1.60 ERA as the Nationals’ primary closer. He saved 25 games and notched an absurd 60-to-6 K/BB ratio in that time, with the only real blemish on his season being a left foot injury that sidelined him for nearly two months. Beyond that, Doolittle was one of the best relievers in all of Major League Baseball this past season, making it an absolute no-brainer for the Nats to pick up his option.

As a bonus for the Nationals, they also hold a 2020 club option over the lefty — one that comes with a similarly affordable $6.5MM base salary. Doolittle has had some durability issues in the past, but he’s consistently dominant when healthy and should continue to serve as a key piece in the Nats’ bullpen for the next two years.

Scott Boras' Comments On Bryce Harper Weren't Serious

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Agent Scott Boras told Michael Kay and Don La Greca of 98.7 FM ESPN New York earlier this week that Nationals outfielder and pending free agent Bryce Harper has already picked his team for 2019, which drew plenty of attention on social media Sunday. “We know who the team is. It’s already completed and done, but Bryce has told me that he wanted to tell you personally,” Boras said (video via the YES Network). However, if you’re of the belief Boras was being facetious, you’re correct. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports (Twitter links) that Boras was indeed joking. Anything else would’ve been a major surprise, as the 26-year-old Harper won’t even be allowed to discuss money with anyone but the Nationals until five days after the end of the World Series. Whether Harper ultimately re-signs with the Nats or heads elsewhere during the coming months, there’s no doubt he’ll land one of the richest contracts in baseball history.

Official Super Two Cutoff

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This year’s cutoff for players to achieve Super Two status, and thus be eligible for arbitration a year early, has been set at two years and 134 days of Major League service time (written as 2.134), tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick.

In order to reach Super Two status, a player must be in the top 22 percent of players with between two and three seasons of MLB service (in terms of total service time) and must have spent 86 days of the preceding season on a Major League roster or disabled list. That designation allows those players to reach arbitration eligibility a year early and go through arbitration four times as opposed to the standard three.

Not only does this increase players’ earning power in the ensuing season, but it also has a substantial impact on their earnings years down the line, as arbitration salaries are built upon the prior year’s earnings. By getting to arbitration early, players jump-start their earning potential a full year sooner than most of their peers. It’s hardly a surprise, then, that the current single-season salary record holder for an arbitration-eligible player, Josh Donaldson, reached Super Two status early in his career ($23MM). Nor is it surprising that Nolan Arenado, who is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to break that record this offseason, was also a Super Two player. Swartz projects Arenado to take home a whopping $26.1MM salary in his final winter of arbitration eligibility.

Here’s how this year’s 2.134 cutoff compares to recent years:

  • 2017: 2.123
  • 2016: 2.131
  • 2015: 2.130
  • 2014: 2.133
  • 2013: 2.122
  • 2012: 2.140
  • 2011: 2.146
  • 2010: 2.122
  • 2009: 2.139

This year’s cutoff is the highest in a half decade, leaving a handful of players ever so slightly on the outside of the bubble. Among them are the Mariners’ Edwin Diaz (2.121), the Athletics’ Andrew Triggs (2.123), the Dodgers’ Austin Barnes (2.124), the Rays’ Mallex Smith (2.125), the Nationals’ Justin Miller (2.128), the Rangers’ Matt Bush (2.132) and the Reds’ Scott Schebler (2.132).

Conversely, there are a few players who ever so narrowly squeaked into Super Two status under the wire. Chief among them is Nationals shortstop Trea Turner, who exemplifies the benefit of reaching Super Two status. Had Turner accrued even two fewer days of big league service than the 2.135 years he presently has, he’d have been in line for a six-figure salary not far north of the Major League minimum. Instead, he’s projected by Swartz to earn nearly 10 times that amount — a salary of $5.3MM. He’ll get a raise based on that starting point in 2020 and continue earning raises through the 2022 season, after which he’ll be a free agent.

Beyond Turner, Tigers left-hander Matthew Boyd just barely surpassed the cutoff at 2.136 and is projected at an even $3MM. Cubs righty Carl Edwards Jr. and Braves lefty Jacob Lindgren each landed at 2.134 on the dot, making both arbitration-eligible this winter as well. Edwards is projected to earn $1.4MM, while Lindgren projects at $600K due to the fact that he missed the 2018 season recovering from surgery and did not throw a pitch.

Is Tanner Roark In Nationals' 2019 Plans?

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  • Tanner Roark heads into a contract season with the Nationals in severe need of a rebound campaign, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. As Zuckerman explores, Roark has now posted an ERA north of 4.30 in three of the past four seasons, making what previously looked like outlier campaigns perhaps the new norm. There’s no mention of a possible non-tender or trade in Zuckerman’s piece, though it’s fair to wonder if the Nationals will feel comfortable committing a hefty salary to the 32-year-old Roark given his run of largely pedestrian results; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegs him for a $9.8MM payday in 2019 — his final season of arbitration eligibility. While the Nats have a clear need for starters behind Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, Roark is becoming a relatively pricey option, although to his credit, he’s been a durable rotation cog (30+ starts in three straight seasons).

NL Notes: Cubs, McGwire, Nationals

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By renovating the historic Fenway Park in 2002, Boston augmented their baseball ops department with the quickening revenue streams from an improved stadium experience – a strategy Theo Epstein brought with him to Chicago, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Additionally, both Fenway Park and Wrigley Field, under Epstein’s leadership, have benefited from in-stadium advertising along the outfield walls – much like your local little league field. In Boston, the seats added above the Green Monster came complete with the ad billboards above. In Chicago, the bleachers were devoid of ad content until 2010 when a 360-foot Toyota sign was installed over the left field bleachers. Baseball purists may balk at these eyesores becoming a focal point of such historic stadiums, but the financial welfare afforded both franchises by these towering facades have produced previously-unmatched eras of on-field success. Lest we forget, Wrigley Field was called Weeghman Park until it was acquired by the chewing gum tycoon, so while it’s not as obvious a money grab as southside rival Guaranteed Rate Field, the Cubs’ northside stadium has long been financially-inspired – Epstein’s major contribution is making these influxes of cash obvious on the field.

Now, some coaching updates around the National League…

  • Mark McGwire won’t be returning as the Padres bench coach for 2019, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. McGwire is reportedly stepping down to spend more time with his family after two seasons as the bench coach in San Diego. Big Mac had previously spent three seasons apiece as hitting coach for the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers. For the Padres, they will seek to avoid an extended search to fill their three coaching vacancies for 2019 (bench coach, hitting coach, and infield coach).
  • In other coaching news, the Washington Nationals will not be making any changes to their coaching staff prior to 2019, per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. Manager Dave Martinez returns for the second year of a three-year deal, hoping for a turnaround after a disappointing first year in Washington. Bench coach Chip Hale, hitting coach Kevin Long, and pitching coach Derek Lilliquist will return to buttress Martinez in the Washington dugout. Rounding out the coaching crew: former infielder Tim Bogar returns to the first base coaching box, Greg Maddux’s former personal catcher Henry Blanco returns to coach in the bullpen and longtime third base coach Bob Henley returns in his usual role.
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