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Nationals “Leery” Of Asking Price On Dallas Keuchel

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The Nationals’ trade of right-hander Tanner Roark again puts Joe Ross and Erick Fedde atop the team’s list of options in the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation, meaning they’ll once again be on the hunt for starters. To that end, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports that the Nats have interest in top lefty Dallas Keuchel but are “leery of giving him the five- or six-year deal he seeks.”

That’s the first word on the asking price for Keuchel, and it’s a fairly steep one, as most would expect. Of course, early asking prices are always going to be high — typically higher than the eventual landing point. If agent Scott Boras and Keuchel are ultimately seeking four to five years, for instance, it’s only natural to see them set out asking for five to six years. MLBTR estimated a four-year, $82MM deal for Keuchel at the outset of free agency, and a recent reader poll saw only about 15 percent of respondents believe a five-year pact was within reach.

Keuchel, 31 on New Year’s Day, is the top remaining starter in free agency but is one of several available pitchers to whom the Nationals have been linked since trading Roark. In the 48 hours since that swap, Washington has been tied to Yusei Kikuchi, Anibal Sanchez and Wade Miley. Keuchel would give the Nationals a virtually unparalleled top four alongside Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin but would also quite likely give the Nats an unheard of four starting pitchers with annual salaries in excess of $20MM. Like Corbin before him, Keuchel would cost the Nationals a pick in next year’s draft by virtue of the fact that he rejected a $17.9MM qualifying offer.

As for those wondering about the wisdom behind trading Roark only to immediately search for a replacement, it’s possible that the organization simply felt Roark’s rising arbitration price — MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegged him at $9.8MM — outpaced reasonable expectations for his performance in 2019. Roark’s strikeout, swinging-strike, home-run and ground-ball rates all went in the wrong direction in 2018, as did his velocity.

In the meantime, the Nats added a 100-mph arm, Tanner Rainey, in exchange for Roark’s final season of team control. While Rainey’s MLB cameo in 2018 was unequivocally brutal (19 runs on 13 hits and 12 walks with seven strikeouts in just seven innings), he also notched a 2.95 ERA with 13.5 K/9 across the past two minor league seasons. Walks were still an issue in the minors, though, as he averaged 5.4 free passes per nine innings pitched.

Nationals "Seem To Prefer" Marwin Gonzalez To Josh Harrison

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  • The Twins have interest in free-agent reliever Kelvin Herrera, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports. The club knows Herrera well from his days with division-rival Kansas City, where he pitched from 2011 until the Royals traded him to Washington last June. The hard-throwing 28-year-old didn’t perform well with the Nats, though, and then saw his season end in late August on account of a torn Lisfranc ligament in his left foot. However, Herrera’s progressing in his recovery from that injury.

Nationals Hopeful They'll Extend Anthony Rendon

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  • It’s well-documented that the Nationals could lose one of their elite players, outfielder Bryce Harper, to free agency this year. And the team may be in a similar position 12 months from now if third baseman Anthony Rendon, who’s entering a contract year, doesn’t sign an extension. However, general manager Mike Rizzo is optimistic the Nationals will prevent Rendon from leaving, Jamal Collier of MLB.com writes. “I think Anthony wants to be here, I think he wants to be here long term,” Rizzo said. “And we want him here. Hopefully there’s a deal that transpires out of goodwill between the two sides.” According to agent Scott Boras (also Harper’s representative), Washington’s “very aware” of what it has in Rendon, who has “been in the top 10 players in the game in the last three or four years.” Boras is always one to talk up his clients, but he’s not exaggerating in Rendon’s case, as the 28-year-old ranks seventh among position players in fWAR (17.3) dating back to 2016.

Nationals Had Interest In Lance Lynn

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  • The Nationals were considering Lance Lynn for their rotation, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports (via Twitter), but they weren’t willing to give the veteran righty the three-year guarantee Lynn seems to have found from the Rangers.  Lynn would have filled the rotation spot left open now that Tanner Roark has been dealt to the Reds, though with Lynn off the board, Washington will keep looking at other veteran arms.

Nationals Showing Interest In Wade Miley, Anibal Sanchez, Yusei Kikuchi

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The Nationals already seemed like a possible ongoing pursuer of starting pitching before trading away Tanner Roark; now, it’s all but inevitable that the club will add another new arm. Veteran free agents Wade Miley and Anibal Sanchez are both on the Nats’ radar, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links), though it’s not clear whether either is particularly likely to land in D.C. Both hurlers turned in excellent results in 2018 after overcoming injuries, with the latter relying on his ability to induce groundballs and the latter finally overcoming his home run woes. Sustainability remains a question, of course, as each has had his share of struggles in seasons prior.

  • Whether the Nats will also be exploring higher-end pitching options isn’t yet fully clear, but president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo did say today that the club is performing “due diligence” on Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, as Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com tweets. Given the wide interest that the 27-year-old has drawn to this point, it seems safe to assume the Nationals are at least open to making another significant rotation addition this winter.

Reds Acquire Tanner Roark

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The Reds have announced the acquisition of veteran righty Tanner Roark from the Nationals. Reliever Tanner Rainey goes to Washington in the swap.

There have been indications over recent months that the Nats were inclined to move on from Roark, who projects to earn $9.8MM in his final trip through arbitration. It seems reasonable to anticipate that the D.C. organization has its eyes on another upgrade to its staff, with an obvious need for one or two additional rotation pieces.

Meanwhile, Roark will help to shore up a Cincinnati starting unit that the club has long targeted for improvement. The 32-year-old has thrown at least 180 frames in each of the past three seasons, even if the results haven’t always been there. Adding him to the staff likely won’t take the Reds out of the market for starters, though the club surely values the lack of a long-term commitment given the price for open-market pitching we’re seeing so far this winter.

Roark has, to be sure, turned in some eye-popping earned run averages over full seasons, but it’s tough to see him as much of an upside play. He has only once topped a ten percent swinging-strike rate, during his otherwise poor 2017 season, and has consistently graded out as a low-4 ERA type hurler in the eyes of ERA estimators.

That’s not to say that there isn’t value in Roark’s profile — there is. But it seems likelier that the Reds should anticipate a quality, durable rotation piece than the front-line starter Roark produced like in the 2014 and 2016 seasons, in which he spun 2.85 and 2.83 ERAs, respectively, in ~200-frame samples. The varying highs and lows over the years have seemingly correlated more with variations in opponents’ batting averages on balls in play than with significant differences in the underlying quality of Roark’s work on the mound.

If there’s an area of concern, it could be in the cozy confines of Great American Ball Park. Roark has never had particularly pressing issues with the long ball, but he has coughed up quite a few more in his lesser seasons (2015, 2017, 2018) than in his good ones. And after turning in approximately 48% groundball rates over the prior three years, Roark dropped to 40.7% in 2018 even as his flyball rate rose to 37.6% after sitting at or below 32% in that same three-year span.

As for the other Tanner R. in this swap, the 25-year-old Rainey is perhaps a more intriguing asset than his forgettable MLB debut effort would suggest. He scuffled badly in an eight-appearance showing last year, but did show a blazing fastball that touched 100 and averaged out at a healthy 98.3 mph.

Promising, Rainey also produced 52 innings of 2.60 ERA ball at the Triple-A level in 2018. Of course, that comes with a massive caveat: he also surrendered more than six free passes per nine innings, continuing his longstanding control difficulties. The Nats have taken some other notable risks on high-octane, command-challenged hurlers this winter. It seems likely that Rainey will open his time with the organization at Triple-A, unless he shows a major spark or a clear need arises during camp.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nationals Interested In Ian Kinsler

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The Tigers, Brewers, Athletics and Nationals are among the teams interested in free-agent second baseman Ian Kinsler, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The Brewers have met with Kinsler at the Winter Meetings, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relays. Detroit’s inclusion on the list is particularly interesting in light of the fact that Kinsler thrived there from 2014-17, before the team traded him to the Angels last offseason. The 36-year-old ended up dividing the season between Anaheim and Boston, where he combined to hit a less-than-stellar .240/.301/.380 (87 wRC+) in 534 plate appearances. But to Kinsler’s credit, he swatted 14 home runs, stole 16 bases and, for the 12th consecutive season, posted at least 2.0 fWAR (2.3).

DJ LeMahieu Reportedly Atop Nats' Second Base List

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Mike Rizzo On Tanner Roark

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  • The Nationals are reportedly willing to trade righty Tanner Roark, whom general manager Mike Rizzo spoke about Tuesday. Rizzo told Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com and other reporters that the Nationals will only move Roark if they add another starter first. As of now, there’s nothing imminent, Zuckerman relays.

Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin

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Dec. 11: Corbin’s deal includes a $2.5MM signing bonus, per Heyman, and the following yearly salaries: $12.5MM in 2019, $19MM in 2020, $24MM in 2021, $23MM in 2022, $24MM in 2023 and $35MM in 2024.

Dec. 7: The Nationals have formally announced the signing of Corbin to a six-year contract.

“As the top free agent pitcher on the market this offseason, we targeted Patrick from the onset,” said general manager Mike Rizzo in a statement within the press release. “He was one of the top pitchers in the National League in 2018 and at 29 years old, we believe the best is yet to come. We are thrilled to bring him into our organization.”

Dec. 6: Just $10MM of salary is deferred, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’ll be due in a period from November of 2024 through January of 2026, so ultimately it’s only a small portion of the contract that won’t be kicked very far down the road.

Dec. 4: The Nationals have agreed to a deal with veteran lefty Patrick Corbin, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Corbin, a client of ISE Baseball, has landed a $140MM guarantee over a six-year term, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets.

"<strongDeferrals will reduce the true, present-day value of the deal, but it’s still a huge sum. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the deferrals will be relatively minor, though details aren’t yet known. There will not be an opt-out opportunity in the deal, Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com tweets. That’s one area in which the Nats will avoid giving further value. (As MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has explained, those increasingly common clauses convey sometimes-significant value to players.) There’s no word yet as to whether Corbin will obtain any no-trade protection.

It turns out that Corbin will not only top the $126MM guarantee achieved last winter by Yu Darvish,but will do so handily. Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Corbin would beat Darvish slightly, grading him as the top arm on the market. That seemed an aggressive prediction at the time, with many other outlets suggesting Corbin would earn less, but his market took off from the outset with several large-market clubs driving the bidding.

The Nats ultimately topped the Yankees (who entered as the perceived favorite) and division-rival Phillies to get a deal done. It long seemed a match with the New York club made the most sense, due not only to need and spending power but also to Corbin’s well-known roots in New York. It turns out the Yanks were unwilling to move past a $100MM offer on a five-year term, per Billy Witz of the New York Times (via Twitter). The Phillies also were stuck on five years, per Heyman (Twitter link).

Corbin’s decision to head to D.C. represents the first major move of this winter’s free agent market. He’ll join Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg to make up an imposing trio atop the Nats’ rotation — a unit that still could be supplemented with another addition. All three will be playing on nine-figure deals, representing a remarkable overall commitment to maintaining a top-level pitching staff.

This is the most significant acquisition yet for the Nats, but hardly the first. Previously, the Nationals lined up a new catching duo (Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki) and added a pair of relievers (Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough). Clearly, the organization is fully committed to a run at a return to glory in 2019 and beyond. The same can be said of much of the rest of the division, setting the stage for a fascinating remaining winter of dealmaking (to say nothing of the season to come).

Because he declined a qualifying offer from the Diamondbacks, Corbin’s signing will trigger some draft pick implications. The Nats will cough up a second-round pick and a fifth-rounder as well, as they were one of two teams that paid the competitive balance tax in 2018. The D-Backs will add a sandwich round pick (after the conclusion of the first round).

It’s a big price for the Nats to pay, but they obviously felt it was worth it to add a 29-year-old pitcher who took major new strides in 2018. Corbin threw exactly 200 frames for the Snakes, working to a 3.15 ERA and — more importantly — looking every bit an ace in doing so. He ended the season with 11.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and a 48.5% ground-ball rate, leaving ERA estimators gawking (2.47 FIP, 2.61 xFIP, 2.91 SIERA). Notably, Corbin’s eye-popping 15.6% swinging-strike rate was orders of magnitude superior to his prior personal-best (11.0% in the season prior) and ranked as the second-highest of any qualified starting pitcher in the Majors. That occurred even as his average fastball dipped below 92 mph for the first time since he established himself as a full-time MLB starter.

Beyond questions of the sustainability of Corbin’s performance, many will wonder whether this contract brings too much health risk. The southpaw missed all of the 2014 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery, after all. Of course, the Nats have not shied away from TJ patients in the past, and Corbin has otherwise mostly been a rather durable hurler by today’s standards. He topped two hundred frames in 2013 and slung 189 2/3 in the 2017 campaign. Plus, the still-youthful hurler has a deeper potential advantage for longevity: he did not push his arm on the youth baseball circuit and did not even join the baseball team in high school until he was a junior.

The addition of Corbin at such a lofty rate will leave many to wonder whether the Nationals have moved on from Bryce Harper. The addition of Corbin’s $23.33MM annual salary will bring the Nationals’ luxury tax ledger to a bit more than $188MM for the 2019 season — about $17.9MM south of the luxury tax line. Obviously, adding Harper to the fold would tax the Nationals well north of the $206MM luxury line, but the Nationals demonstrated last year that they were comfortable crossing that threshold.

Beyond that, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has suggested that the Nats payroll could support both an extension for Anthony Rendon and a new contract for Harper. While it’s possible that the addition of Corbin could make it difficult to ultimately sign both Rendon and Harper long-term, Rizzo’s prior comments at the very least lend credence to the notion that both Corbin and Harper could coexist on an increasingly large payroll. Furthermore, as Janes tweets, the Nats’ front office knows that in order to retain Harper, ownership will need to make an “unprecedented commitment” and looks to be building up the roster while leaving a decision on Harper in the hands of the Lerner family.

Now that the dust has cleared, Corbin has ended up topping some notable recent price points. In addition to beating the Darvish deal, he’ll receive more total money than Johnny Cueto ($130MM), though that contract included an early opt-out chance, as well as Jordan Zimmermann ($110MM). The contract will still fall comfortably shy of Jon Lester’s somewhat front-loaded, $155MM pact with the Cubs in December of 2014.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Spots Images.

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